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Ocean Heat Source 08: 📢Antarctic Bottom Water and overturning don’t explain the magnitude of the abyssal warming acceleration. Test type: Empirical, data-constrained model comparison This one reminded me how important quantitation is... Antarctic Bottom Water is real, and at first, it actually looked like a surprisingly good match to...

15,996 views • 3 days ago •via X (Twitter)

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Everyone needs to know what is happening in our world right now. • Greenland Ice Sheet (collapse). • West Antarctic Ice Sheet (collapse). • Labrador-Irminger Seas/SPG Convection (collapse). • East Antarctic Subglacial Basins (collapse). • Amazon Rainforest (dieback). • Boreal Permafrost (collapse). • Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (collapse). • Arctic Winter Sea Ice (collapse). • East Antarctic Ice Sheet (collapse). These are the Nine tipping elements that regulate the state of the entire climate system on Earth. The entire Nine tipping elements are showing signs of instability. During the next years this will be the most alarming thing on earth. For example. Greenland ice sheet, accelerated melting, warming four times faster than the planet as a whole. Releasing cold, fresh water, slowing down the overturning of heat in the North Atlantic, pushing the whole monsoon system down further south, causing droughts and forest fires over the Amazon rainforest. And just for perspective, drought causes Yangtze - China’s most important river and the third-longest in the world - to dry up - affecting hydropower, shipping routes, limiting drinking water supplies, and even much worse. We saw the prices of food, fuel and energy soared due to the situation in Ukraine. And this is predicted to make things a lot worse because we depend on China imports than Russia and Ukraine. COVID-19 has reminded us that we live on a small planet, where none of us are isolated from the problems in our global community. So, governments need to remember that the science who told us to worry about COVID-19 and how to deal with it is the same science telling us to worry about climate change with a long list of recommendations on climate actions. Dear friends, this is no longer just a climate crisis. We are now facing something deeper. Mass extinction. Air pollution. Undermining ecosystem functions. Really putting humanity’s future at risk. Which in the future will shift over from supporting humanity to starting to undermine humanity. If we don’t act in the same way about climate change, the effects of a hotter planet will be much worse. This is a humanitarian crisis.

Mohamad Safa

47,862 views • 1 year ago

Using Claude Fable 5, I built a model that predicts the entire 2026 FIFA world cup.. every single game, not just the final.. so let me break the whole thing down. what it does, how it works, and exactly how i built it.. #1 First what it does: it predicts all 104 games of the tournament. not just who lifts the trophy, but every group match, every knockout, the full path from the round of 32 to the final.. everything lands in one dashboard: > group stage, every match with each team's win % and the chance of a draw > standings, how all 12 groups are projected to finish > bracket, the full knockout tree with each team's odds of advancing > champion odds, who's most likely to actually win it all and it doesn't freeze after one prediction. the moment a real game is played, it locks that result in and re-runs everything around it. so the odds move live as the tournament goes, week by week you watch favorites rise and contenders collapse. #2. How it works: the core idea is simple. the model only ever predicts one thing, a single match. the real trick is the repetition. it learns from decades of match history, then plays the whole tournament out from the first game to the final, tens of thousands of times. each run it records who advanced and who won. do that enough and you stop getting one guess and start getting real odds, one team lifts the trophy in maybe 14% of the runs, another in 9%, and so on. #3. So, how i built it ? i didn't hand-write most of the code. i broke the project into 4 pieces, described each one to fable, and let it build while i focused on getting the football logic exactly right. - The data every international match going back over a century, around 50,000 games, plus each team's elo rating, which is the truest measure of strength, and the official 2026 schedule. garbage data means garbage predictions, so this part mattered most. - The features i turned that raw history into signals the model can learn from, the elo gap between the two teams, recent form, goals scored and conceded, and a home boost for the hosts, usa, canada and mexico. - The model for each match it predicts the expected goals for both sides, then turns that into win, draw and loss probabilities plus a likely scoreline. that's what feeds the simulation. - The tournament engine this was the hard part. the 2026 world cup is brand new, 48 teams, 12 groups, a round of 32 that's never existed before, and 8 "best third-placed" teams that slot into the bracket by a fixed fifa table. even the group tiebreakers changed this year, head to head now counts before goal difference. get any of it wrong and the whole bracket falls apart, so i built it carefully and tested the format until it was exact, then wrapped it in a simulation loop that plays the tournament out tens of thousands of times. and the last piece, the live part. as real results come in, they get locked, and only the unplayed games get re-simulated. that's what makes it a living model instead of a one-time prediction. all of it outputs to a clean dashboard you can actually read and screenshot.. right now, before kickoff, it already has a clear favorite to lift the trophy.. 👀 btw who's your pick to win the 2026 world cup?

Axel Bitblaze 🪓

63,666 views • 2 months ago