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One final piece that isn't getting much attention... Countries around the world have been drawing down their emergency oil reserves. Those barrels eventually have to be replaced. 🔹 Governments will have to buy oil to rebuild their stockpiles. 🔹 That's new demand on top of everyday global consumption. 🔹... show more

Shazi

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Everyone saw oil prices fall and assumed the Middle East crisis was over. One energy portfolio manager says the market has it completely backwards. 🔹 Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is still far below normal. 🔹 Millions of barrels per day of production remain offline. 🔹 Global oil inventories are near historic lows. The price of oil may have fallen, but the physical supply problem hasn't disappeared. What happens if the market is underestimating what's still unfolding?

Everyone saw oil prices fall and assumed the Middle East crisis was over. One energy portfolio manager says the market has it completely backwards. 🔹 Tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is still far below normal. 🔹 Millions of barrels per day of production remain offline. 🔹 Global oil inventories are near historic lows. The price of oil may have fallen, but the physical supply problem hasn't disappeared. What happens if the market is underestimating what's still unfolding?

Shazi

61,422 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

The next question is... If the oil market is so tight, why haven't prices exploded? One theory: 🔹 China has dramatically reduced its oil imports. 🔹 But demand for gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel hasn't collapsed. So where is the oil coming from? If China has been drawing down its own stockpiles instead of buying on the global market... What happens when it has to start buying again?

The next question is... If the oil market is so tight, why haven't prices exploded? One theory: 🔹 China has dramatically reduced its oil imports. 🔹 But demand for gasoline, jet fuel, and diesel hasn't collapsed. So where is the oil coming from? If China has been drawing down its own stockpiles instead of buying on the global market... What happens when it has to start buying again?

Shazi

48,202 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

⭕️ OIL: Energy markets expert Dan Dicker told Bloomberg that oil prices have remained artificially low because they are being driven by traders rather than underlying physical shortages. 🔹 Dicker said traders have repeatedly been burned after buying oil on supply concerns, only for President Donald Trump to announce prospective agreements that send prices sharply lower, even as those negotiations fail to open the Strait of Hormuz. 🔹 He warned that unless oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz resume fully and inventories are rebuilt, the physical shortage will eventually overwhelm financial markets, driving oil prices from about $75 a barrel today to $135 within a month.

⭕️ OIL: Energy markets expert Dan Dicker told Bloomberg that oil prices have remained artificially low because they are being driven by traders rather than underlying physical shortages. 🔹 Dicker said traders have repeatedly been burned after buying oil on supply concerns, only for President Donald Trump to announce prospective agreements that send prices sharply lower, even as those negotiations fail to open the Strait of Hormuz. 🔹 He warned that unless oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz resume fully and inventories are rebuilt, the physical shortage will eventually overwhelm financial markets, driving oil prices from about $75 a barrel today to $135 within a month.

Drop Site

84,006 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

🚨 BREAKING: American oil companies are preparing to SURGE into Venezuela, which has 303 BILLION barrels of oil in reserves - even larger than Saudi Arabia Trump Interior Sec. Doug Burgum says this is HUGE! "Trump is strategically BRILLIANT...It's great news for jobs. It's great news for gas prices going forward. It's great news for America!" "Venezuela has an opportunity now to actually have capital come in and rebuild their economy and take advantage of the fact that they have larger oil reserves than Saudi Arabia!" "Saudi Arabia, one of the richest countries in the world. Venezuela, one of the poorest countries in the world. It doesn't have to be that way." "With American technology, American partnership, Venezuela can be transformed, and that's a win for this hemisphere. It's a win for the people of Venezuela."

🚨 BREAKING: American oil companies are preparing to SURGE into Venezuela, which has 303 BILLION barrels of oil in reserves - even larger than Saudi Arabia Trump Interior Sec. Doug Burgum says this is HUGE! "Trump is strategically BRILLIANT...It's great news for jobs. It's great news for gas prices going forward. It's great news for America!" "Venezuela has an opportunity now to actually have capital come in and rebuild their economy and take advantage of the fact that they have larger oil reserves than Saudi Arabia!" "Saudi Arabia, one of the richest countries in the world. Venezuela, one of the poorest countries in the world. It doesn't have to be that way." "With American technology, American partnership, Venezuela can be transformed, and that's a win for this hemisphere. It's a win for the people of Venezuela."

Eric Daugherty

248,258 Aufrufe • vor 8 Monaten

THE WORLD IS QUIETLY DRAINING ITS OIL. Jeff Currie, one of the most respected commodity strategists in the world and former global head of commodities at Goldman Sachs, recently laid out a setup in the oil market that almost no one is paying attention to. His core observation is about inventory behavior. Across the world right now, refiners, distributors, and end-users are actively running down their stockpiles in anticipation of lower prices. Drivers are letting their tanks run down on their cars. Buyers are holding off on purchases. Everyone is positioning for a drop that they assume is coming. That's the exact opposite of what was happening a year ago, when precautionary inventories were being built aggressively and that buying behavior helped push oil up to 110 and 120 dollars a barrel. The dynamic now is the mirror image of that move. Everyone is draining their buffers, expecting supply to arrive and prices to fall. What this actually creates is a massive pool of pent-up demand sitting just below the surface. If the supply doesn't show up the way markets are anticipating, that demand has to come back in all at once, and prices respond accordingly. Currie's warning on Europe is particularly sharp. The comfort European energy markets have been feeling isn't coming from new production. It's coming from the United States exporting two million additional barrels per day, most of it flowing to Europe, and almost all of that coming directly out of US storage. That isn't a real supply solution. It's a temporary one being financed by drawing down strategic and commercial inventories. It was never sustainable to begin with, and the unwind of that dynamic is one of the most underappreciated risks heading into the summer. His framing on the geopolitical setup adds another layer. Markets have been trying to price in a flush-out assuming a signed deal would resolve the underlying sanctions and geopolitical issues. Of the roughly 120 to 150 million barrels of leakage in the market, about 40 percent has already come out. The remaining supply response is being priced in as if it's a done deal, when in reality it depends on outcomes that haven't actually happened yet. The result is a market that is de-stocking aggressively ahead of supply that may not fully materialize, in a structure where Europe's apparent comfort is being financed by a US reserve drain that can't continue indefinitely. That's not a stable equilibrium. That's an asymmetric setup waiting to resolve.

THE WORLD IS QUIETLY DRAINING ITS OIL. Jeff Currie, one of the most respected commodity strategists in the world and former global head of commodities at Goldman Sachs, recently laid out a setup in the oil market that almost no one is paying attention to. His core observation is about inventory behavior. Across the world right now, refiners, distributors, and end-users are actively running down their stockpiles in anticipation of lower prices. Drivers are letting their tanks run down on their cars. Buyers are holding off on purchases. Everyone is positioning for a drop that they assume is coming. That's the exact opposite of what was happening a year ago, when precautionary inventories were being built aggressively and that buying behavior helped push oil up to 110 and 120 dollars a barrel. The dynamic now is the mirror image of that move. Everyone is draining their buffers, expecting supply to arrive and prices to fall. What this actually creates is a massive pool of pent-up demand sitting just below the surface. If the supply doesn't show up the way markets are anticipating, that demand has to come back in all at once, and prices respond accordingly. Currie's warning on Europe is particularly sharp. The comfort European energy markets have been feeling isn't coming from new production. It's coming from the United States exporting two million additional barrels per day, most of it flowing to Europe, and almost all of that coming directly out of US storage. That isn't a real supply solution. It's a temporary one being financed by drawing down strategic and commercial inventories. It was never sustainable to begin with, and the unwind of that dynamic is one of the most underappreciated risks heading into the summer. His framing on the geopolitical setup adds another layer. Markets have been trying to price in a flush-out assuming a signed deal would resolve the underlying sanctions and geopolitical issues. Of the roughly 120 to 150 million barrels of leakage in the market, about 40 percent has already come out. The remaining supply response is being priced in as if it's a done deal, when in reality it depends on outcomes that haven't actually happened yet. The result is a market that is de-stocking aggressively ahead of supply that may not fully materialize, in a structure where Europe's apparent comfort is being financed by a US reserve drain that can't continue indefinitely. That's not a stable equilibrium. That's an asymmetric setup waiting to resolve.

Lumida Wealth Management

19,717 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

Rick Rule: The world has systematically underinvested in oil. - The oil industry is underinvesting in sustaining capital by >$1B/day - This underinvestment will reduce future oil production Oil is a cyclical industry, and a sustained period of underinvestment will lead to lower production in the future... we are still in the underinvestment period despite high prices. In addition to the massive underinvestment: - The industry has to fix oil infrastructure impacted by the Iran war - The world will have to refill their SPRs - Countries will expand their SPRs Hormuz or no Hormuz, the supply/demand picture for oil is favorable over the long term.

Rick Rule: The world has systematically underinvested in oil. - The oil industry is underinvesting in sustaining capital by >$1B/day - This underinvestment will reduce future oil production Oil is a cyclical industry, and a sustained period of underinvestment will lead to lower production in the future... we are still in the underinvestment period despite high prices. In addition to the massive underinvestment: - The industry has to fix oil infrastructure impacted by the Iran war - The world will have to refill their SPRs - Countries will expand their SPRs Hormuz or no Hormuz, the supply/demand picture for oil is favorable over the long term.

Lukas Ekwueme

42,413 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

"China took advantage of the historically LOW OIL PRICES to build up their strategic RESERVES. Now, they have ~1.5 BILLION barrels, and that stockpile hasn't gone down... because IRAN is selling MORE oil to CHINA, and so are RUSSIA and VENEZUELA." Carl Zha noted that Beijing prepared for this exact war, and those who claim the US won't be harmed by soaring oil prices are ignoring the fact that the US may have oil... but everything else is "MADE IN CHINA."

"China took advantage of the historically LOW OIL PRICES to build up their strategic RESERVES. Now, they have ~1.5 BILLION barrels, and that stockpile hasn't gone down... because IRAN is selling MORE oil to CHINA, and so are RUSSIA and VENEZUELA." Carl Zha noted that Beijing prepared for this exact war, and those who claim the US won't be harmed by soaring oil prices are ignoring the fact that the US may have oil... but everything else is "MADE IN CHINA."

Rachel Blevins

74,813 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

Sword Art Online: Echoes of Aincrad is a new open world RPG announced by Bandai Namco 🔹You play as just another player trapped in the game 🔹Full character customization 🔹Has a "Death Game" difficulty, where when you die your save gets deleted 🔹You have companions who have their own abilities, and that you can time team up attacks with 🔹Enemies will follow you for a long time 🔹Devs want the world itself to "feel like a dungeon" 🔹Defeating sealed mini-bosses will open up other seals in the world that opens up areas/chests/items 🔹Towns are used to level up, upgrade armor/weapons, and add new abilities to your weapons 📅Release Date: July 9, 2026

Sword Art Online: Echoes of Aincrad is a new open world RPG announced by Bandai Namco 🔹You play as just another player trapped in the game 🔹Full character customization 🔹Has a "Death Game" difficulty, where when you die your save gets deleted 🔹You have companions who have their own abilities, and that you can time team up attacks with 🔹Enemies will follow you for a long time 🔹Devs want the world itself to "feel like a dungeon" 🔹Defeating sealed mini-bosses will open up other seals in the world that opens up areas/chests/items 🔹Towns are used to level up, upgrade armor/weapons, and add new abilities to your weapons 📅Release Date: July 9, 2026

Game Hunter 🔜 TGS

2,542,373 Aufrufe • vor 6 Monaten

A Dollar shortage + oil shortage isn't supposed to be possible. The demand for oil is inversely correlated to the value of the Dollar. Under normal supply situations, the higher the Dollar the less oil nations can afford, which reduces demand. What's different this time is there's an engineered supply shock to global oil, but not in the U.S. As nations are starved of oil, their economies slow. Their ability to sell goods to the U.S. declines, which means they receive less Dollars that they need to service their debt. At the same time, the U.S. is still open for business, exporting oil for Dollars, which sucks Dollars back into the U.S. The more the U.S. exports, the less Dollars are in circulation for the rest of the world, raising the value of the Dollar when there's an oil shortage. Again, the Dollar & Oil going up at the same time isn't supposed to be possible, but that's exactly what's about to happen. This leads to a massive disruption in the global debt market, which tightens loan supply, reducing the ability to get Dollars, increasing the risk of defaults while forcing nations to sell their U.S. Dollar denominated assets below face value. e.g. U.S. treasuries

A Dollar shortage + oil shortage isn't supposed to be possible. The demand for oil is inversely correlated to the value of the Dollar. Under normal supply situations, the higher the Dollar the less oil nations can afford, which reduces demand. What's different this time is there's an engineered supply shock to global oil, but not in the U.S. As nations are starved of oil, their economies slow. Their ability to sell goods to the U.S. declines, which means they receive less Dollars that they need to service their debt. At the same time, the U.S. is still open for business, exporting oil for Dollars, which sucks Dollars back into the U.S. The more the U.S. exports, the less Dollars are in circulation for the rest of the world, raising the value of the Dollar when there's an oil shortage. Again, the Dollar & Oil going up at the same time isn't supposed to be possible, but that's exactly what's about to happen. This leads to a massive disruption in the global debt market, which tightens loan supply, reducing the ability to get Dollars, increasing the risk of defaults while forcing nations to sell their U.S. Dollar denominated assets below face value. e.g. U.S. treasuries

Financelot

185,828 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

Rick Rule: The Iran oil spike was temporary... the next one will be structural. The oil industry is a cyclical, capital-intensive business with clear boom-and-bust cycles. --Low prices lead to underinvestment. - Underinvestment leads to supply shortages. - Supply shortages lead to high prices. We are currently still in the underinvestment part of the cycle. The industry has been underinvesting in sustaining capital by roughly $1B/day. Cumulatively, we're talking about roughly $1.5T of underinvestment. On top of that, the war has exacerbated this chronic lack of investment. Meanwhile, global decline rates have doubled over the past 2 decades. We are now losing roughly 6 mbpd of production every year. In other words, we need to replace the equivalent of roughly 50% of US oil production annually just to maintain current global production. At the same time, we're barely looking for new oil fields. Annual oil & gas discoveries have fallen sharply over the past decades: - Down 60% since 2010 - Down ~90% since 1960 When we do find new fields, it takes much longer to bring them online: - 1990-1999: ~14 years - 2020-2024: ~19 years And the fields we discover? They are also getting smaller: - 1970s avg: 150 Mboe - 2010s avg: 40 Mboe The combination of these factors means there are no quick fixes for the coming supply shortfall. The next oil crisis won't be caused by a temporary geopolitical shock. It'll be the result of decades of underinvestment finally catching up with the industry.

Rick Rule: The Iran oil spike was temporary... the next one will be structural. The oil industry is a cyclical, capital-intensive business with clear boom-and-bust cycles. --Low prices lead to underinvestment. - Underinvestment leads to supply shortages. - Supply shortages lead to high prices. We are currently still in the underinvestment part of the cycle. The industry has been underinvesting in sustaining capital by roughly $1B/day. Cumulatively, we're talking about roughly $1.5T of underinvestment. On top of that, the war has exacerbated this chronic lack of investment. Meanwhile, global decline rates have doubled over the past 2 decades. We are now losing roughly 6 mbpd of production every year. In other words, we need to replace the equivalent of roughly 50% of US oil production annually just to maintain current global production. At the same time, we're barely looking for new oil fields. Annual oil & gas discoveries have fallen sharply over the past decades: - Down 60% since 2010 - Down ~90% since 1960 When we do find new fields, it takes much longer to bring them online: - 1990-1999: ~14 years - 2020-2024: ~19 years And the fields we discover? They are also getting smaller: - 1970s avg: 150 Mboe - 2010s avg: 40 Mboe The combination of these factors means there are no quick fixes for the coming supply shortfall. The next oil crisis won't be caused by a temporary geopolitical shock. It'll be the result of decades of underinvestment finally catching up with the industry.

Lukas Ekwueme

27,726 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

🇺🇸🇨🇳 Oil should be soaring with the region on fire, and four forces are holding it down. Raymond Zucaro, CIO of RVX Asset Management, points to China switching from oil to electricity faster than anyone predicted, governments draining their emergency reserves, and prices high enough to simply kill off demand. The fourth is murkier: possible Treasury-backed trading and intervention keeping futures suppressed. His warning is about what comes after, when those reserves fall past the point of safe refilling and the bill arrives as inflation. Ray Zucaro Brandon Weichert

🇺🇸🇨🇳 Oil should be soaring with the region on fire, and four forces are holding it down. Raymond Zucaro, CIO of RVX Asset Management, points to China switching from oil to electricity faster than anyone predicted, governments draining their emergency reserves, and prices high enough to simply kill off demand. The fourth is murkier: possible Treasury-backed trading and intervention keeping futures suppressed. His warning is about what comes after, when those reserves fall past the point of safe refilling and the bill arrives as inflation. Ray Zucaro Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

85,902 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

EXXON CEO WARNS $150 OIL WITHIN WEEKS: THE SHORTAGE THE MARKET IGNORED Josh Young of Bison Interests and Bison just laid out the numbers that flip the entire oil narrative on its head. The numbers coming out of the energy markets have flipped from bearish complacency to outright crisis faster than almost anyone modeled. A balanced global oil system has lost up to 14 million barrels of daily supply in a matter of weeks. Inventories are draining at hundreds of millions of barrels per month with virtually no demand destruction to offset the loss. THE SUPPLY SHOCK AND CYCLE REALITY ➡️ Global supply has dropped by 10 to 14 million barrels per day to around 90 to 92 million barrels daily. ➡️ The market was already 15 years into a down cycle of underinvestment before the conflict hit. ➡️ Traders had positioned for a glut that the fundamentals never supported. THE INVENTORY CRISIS ACCELERATES ➡️ Storage has plunged from 8.3 billion to nearly 7 billion barrels in just months. ➡️ Monthly depletion of 300 to 500 million barrels continues without relief. ➡️ Tank bottoms are approaching fast, threatening the basic functioning of global oil logistics. THE DEMAND AND RECOVERY DYNAMICS ➡️ Demand destruction remains minimal and largely availability driven rather than economic. ➡️ Even immediate reopening of key chokepoints would require two to three months for normalization. ➡️ Additional inventory losses of 500 million to 1 billion barrels are already locked in. THE $150 OIL WARNING FROM THE TOP ➡️ Exxon and Chevron CEOs stated within weeks they expect $150 plus physical oil. ➡️ Their conservative stance makes this warning all the more significant for the market. ➡️ The data on collapsing supply and vanishing storage fully supports their assessment. THE BOTTOM LINE The war has accelerated an already tightening oil cycle into a full-blown supply crisis. With inventories crashing and almost no demand response to cushion the blow, the market is now set for materially higher prices over an extended period. The old glut fears have been exposed as fundamentally misplaced. This is the supply crisis that forces the re-rating of oil higher. #OilSupplyCrisis #HigherOilPrices #InventoryDrawdown #EnergyBull #WTI #TankBottoms #SupplyShock HT: YouTube Natural Resource Stocks Josh Young

EXXON CEO WARNS $150 OIL WITHIN WEEKS: THE SHORTAGE THE MARKET IGNORED Josh Young of Bison Interests and Bison just laid out the numbers that flip the entire oil narrative on its head. The numbers coming out of the energy markets have flipped from bearish complacency to outright crisis faster than almost anyone modeled. A balanced global oil system has lost up to 14 million barrels of daily supply in a matter of weeks. Inventories are draining at hundreds of millions of barrels per month with virtually no demand destruction to offset the loss. THE SUPPLY SHOCK AND CYCLE REALITY ➡️ Global supply has dropped by 10 to 14 million barrels per day to around 90 to 92 million barrels daily. ➡️ The market was already 15 years into a down cycle of underinvestment before the conflict hit. ➡️ Traders had positioned for a glut that the fundamentals never supported. THE INVENTORY CRISIS ACCELERATES ➡️ Storage has plunged from 8.3 billion to nearly 7 billion barrels in just months. ➡️ Monthly depletion of 300 to 500 million barrels continues without relief. ➡️ Tank bottoms are approaching fast, threatening the basic functioning of global oil logistics. THE DEMAND AND RECOVERY DYNAMICS ➡️ Demand destruction remains minimal and largely availability driven rather than economic. ➡️ Even immediate reopening of key chokepoints would require two to three months for normalization. ➡️ Additional inventory losses of 500 million to 1 billion barrels are already locked in. THE $150 OIL WARNING FROM THE TOP ➡️ Exxon and Chevron CEOs stated within weeks they expect $150 plus physical oil. ➡️ Their conservative stance makes this warning all the more significant for the market. ➡️ The data on collapsing supply and vanishing storage fully supports their assessment. THE BOTTOM LINE The war has accelerated an already tightening oil cycle into a full-blown supply crisis. With inventories crashing and almost no demand response to cushion the blow, the market is now set for materially higher prices over an extended period. The old glut fears have been exposed as fundamentally misplaced. This is the supply crisis that forces the re-rating of oil higher. #OilSupplyCrisis #HigherOilPrices #InventoryDrawdown #EnergyBull #WTI #TankBottoms #SupplyShock HT: YouTube Natural Resource Stocks Josh Young

Mark

18,685 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

The country set aside 450,000 barrels of crude oil for local consumption. We must ask the NNPC what has happened to the allocation… The government will have to review its economic programme dictated by the IMF and the World Bank; those institutions have repeatedly maintained that their prescriptions are not meant to help our economy… -Human rights lawyer Femi Falana (SAN). #SundayPolitics

The country set aside 450,000 barrels of crude oil for local consumption. We must ask the NNPC what has happened to the allocation… The government will have to review its economic programme dictated by the IMF and the World Bank; those institutions have repeatedly maintained that their prescriptions are not meant to help our economy… -Human rights lawyer Femi Falana (SAN). #SundayPolitics

Channels Television

63,398 Aufrufe • vor 18 Tagen

Governments in Different Parts of the World Are Bringing Different Policies to Reduce the Pain of Their People – Osifo To manage pump price, some countries have released their strategic national reserves to refineries. In countries where PMS products are taxed, the tax has been removed. It is not that difficult. Festus Osifo, President, Trade Union Congress

Governments in Different Parts of the World Are Bringing Different Policies to Reduce the Pain of Their People – Osifo To manage pump price, some countries have released their strategic national reserves to refineries. In countries where PMS products are taxed, the tax has been removed. It is not that difficult. Festus Osifo, President, Trade Union Congress

ARISE NEWS

13,572 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

.Ben Shapiro to Jake Tapper 🦅 on the war in Iran... "I think that the solution is going to materialize over time, given the fact that the United States has successfully been able to open the Strait of Hormuz to the tune of 18 billion barrels of oil that were going out just last week on a daily basis, which is pretty close to the pre-war rate. And now the fact that we have oil that presumably will come online from Venezuela, the fact that you have all the oil-producing powers in that region, building pipelines the other way, it's something that's going to mitigate over time. But obviously, when you're trying to communicate with the American people that the prices are going to come down, you do have to explain that every war entails sacrifice, and one of those sacrifices is temporary spikes in oil prices, and that obviously is what has happened here. Even if you agree, as I do, with what the administration has done."

.Ben Shapiro to Jake Tapper 🦅 on the war in Iran... "I think that the solution is going to materialize over time, given the fact that the United States has successfully been able to open the Strait of Hormuz to the tune of 18 billion barrels of oil that were going out just last week on a daily basis, which is pretty close to the pre-war rate. And now the fact that we have oil that presumably will come online from Venezuela, the fact that you have all the oil-producing powers in that region, building pipelines the other way, it's something that's going to mitigate over time. But obviously, when you're trying to communicate with the American people that the prices are going to come down, you do have to explain that every war entails sacrifice, and one of those sacrifices is temporary spikes in oil prices, and that obviously is what has happened here. Even if you agree, as I do, with what the administration has done."

Curtis Houck

10,856 Aufrufe • vor 7 Tagen

The IEA just put real numbers behind the fear. Its June report, the first one to look ahead to 2027, was not really about supply. It was about demand. The agency slashed its 2026 demand growth forecast by about 700,000 barrels a day, down to roughly 1.1 million. That is not a rounding error. That is the IEA saying demand is far weaker than anyone hoped, weak enough to change the entire balance of the oil market. Then it gets worse. The first look at 2027 warns of a major supply overhang. Supply normalizing and demand eroding at the same time. A real glut of barrels next year, even bigger than the one that pushed the curve into contango last December. So strip it down. Supply coming back is the good part. Demand being this damaged is the part people keep missing. Because there are two ways oil falls. It falls because supply returns, and that is the good story. Or it falls because supply returns into a world where demand is already broken. Those are not the same thing. And the second one is not inflation. That is the whole point. When oil and the inflation markets are both plunging this fast, they are not pricing higher prices ahead. They are pricing demand coming apart.

The IEA just put real numbers behind the fear. Its June report, the first one to look ahead to 2027, was not really about supply. It was about demand. The agency slashed its 2026 demand growth forecast by about 700,000 barrels a day, down to roughly 1.1 million. That is not a rounding error. That is the IEA saying demand is far weaker than anyone hoped, weak enough to change the entire balance of the oil market. Then it gets worse. The first look at 2027 warns of a major supply overhang. Supply normalizing and demand eroding at the same time. A real glut of barrels next year, even bigger than the one that pushed the curve into contango last December. So strip it down. Supply coming back is the good part. Demand being this damaged is the part people keep missing. Because there are two ways oil falls. It falls because supply returns, and that is the good story. Or it falls because supply returns into a world where demand is already broken. Those are not the same thing. And the second one is not inflation. That is the whole point. When oil and the inflation markets are both plunging this fast, they are not pricing higher prices ahead. They are pricing demand coming apart.

Jeffrey P. Snider

16,266 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

🚨Prof. Steve Hanke: ‘Oil futures market have got it WRONG, oil prices will SKYROCKET by early August.’ ‘I think basically the markets just got things wrong…the futures market is just not anticipating things correctly because what’s going on with oil is that you have all this oil bottled up and not being delivered. And as a result of that, the demand for oil internationally is greater than the supply that’s coming into the market right now. And that gap between demand and supply is being filled by running inventories down. So inventories of oil are going down, down, and hitting almost rock-bottom levels in some countries. For most countries on average, I think by the end of July or early August we’ll hit very low, critical levels of oil inventories. And when that happens, the price will zoom up again, and you’ll find out that those people who purchased futures contracts for delivery in August, for example, will make out like bandits because they will have purchased the thing for August delivery today at a price that will be lower than I think the price will be in August when they actually have to deliver.’ —Steve Hanke, Professor of Applied Economics at Johns Hopkins University, joins us for the SEASON PREMIERE of Going Underground on Saturday Don’t miss it, follow our Rumble channel, link below in the replies👇

🚨Prof. Steve Hanke: ‘Oil futures market have got it WRONG, oil prices will SKYROCKET by early August.’ ‘I think basically the markets just got things wrong…the futures market is just not anticipating things correctly because what’s going on with oil is that you have all this oil bottled up and not being delivered. And as a result of that, the demand for oil internationally is greater than the supply that’s coming into the market right now. And that gap between demand and supply is being filled by running inventories down. So inventories of oil are going down, down, and hitting almost rock-bottom levels in some countries. For most countries on average, I think by the end of July or early August we’ll hit very low, critical levels of oil inventories. And when that happens, the price will zoom up again, and you’ll find out that those people who purchased futures contracts for delivery in August, for example, will make out like bandits because they will have purchased the thing for August delivery today at a price that will be lower than I think the price will be in August when they actually have to deliver.’ —Steve Hanke, Professor of Applied Economics at Johns Hopkins University, joins us for the SEASON PREMIERE of Going Underground on Saturday Don’t miss it, follow our Rumble channel, link below in the replies👇

Going Underground

25,993 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

CRUDE SHORTAGE WHIPLASH: WHY OIL PRICES WILL SPIKE AFTER THE BACKLOG CLEARS IN DAYS Troy Eckard of Enterprises Oil & Gas Investing has just revealed why the headlines about record crude oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz are misleading at best. What looks like a sudden flood of supply is actually the release of oil that has been loaded and waiting for nearly four months. This temporary surge is masking a much deeper supply problem that the world has been papering over with strategic reserves. Once the backlog is gone, the real supply picture will come into focus fast. THE HORMUZ BACKLOG REALITY ➡️ The recent movement of 19.1 million barrels per day is not new oil from opened wells or increased production. ➡️ It is not coming from storage tanks sitting at the ports ready to go. ➡️ Every single barrel was loaded onto tankers before the strait closed and has been stuck waiting for safe passage. ➡️ The main body of the strait is still not open and remains full of mines. ➡️ Only a narrow pathway is being used to let these long-delayed vessels through. THE SCALE OF WHAT JUST MOVED ➡️ When the strait closed, estimates show 110 to 120 million barrels of oil were trapped on vessels behind the gate. ➡️ That amount equals just one day of total global consumption at 104 million barrels per day. ➡️ At the pace seen recently, that entire backlog will clear in roughly five to six days. ➡️ After those days pass, there will be no equivalent volume of new oil taking its place. THE FOUR-MONTH SUPPLY HOLE ➡️ The closure created a massive 1.2 to 1.5 billion barrel deficit over almost four months. ➡️ The world responded by draining strategic reserves, pipelines, and every available storage to prevent prices from reaching 150 or 200 dollars. ➡️ That emergency action suppressed prices and created the current calm at around 70 dollars and fifty cents. ➡️ But those reserves cannot be drained indefinitely. THE PRICE ILLUSION ➡️ Oil trading near 70 dollars today exists because traders are dumping positions on the back of this one-time inventory release. ➡️ The media is calling it a solution and record progress through the strait. ➡️ In truth, production has not ramped up and new infrastructure is still months away from delivering. ➡️ This is a pretend moment of adequate supply that will not last. THE COMING WHIPLASH ➡️ In five to eight days the extra 100 million barrels of backlog oil will be absorbed into the global supply chain. ➡️ Physical buyers needing real barrels for customers will then enter the market in force. ➡️ A daily shortfall of 8 to 12 million barrels could become clear within three to four weeks. ➡️ The shift from trader covering losses to genuine physical demand will create a sharp reversal. THE BOTTOM LINE The recent drop in oil prices is riding on the final escape of oil that was already in the system long before the recent disruptions. That temporary relief is ending fast, and the underlying four-month supply hole remains unfilled. The market is about to discover that celebrating this surge was premature. This is the sound of the real supply picture reasserting itself. HT: YouTube Eckard Enterprises | Oil & Gas Investing #OilPrices #HormuzBacklog #CrudeOilReality #SupplyShortage #EnergyMarkets #OilWhiplash

CRUDE SHORTAGE WHIPLASH: WHY OIL PRICES WILL SPIKE AFTER THE BACKLOG CLEARS IN DAYS Troy Eckard of Enterprises Oil & Gas Investing has just revealed why the headlines about record crude oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz are misleading at best. What looks like a sudden flood of supply is actually the release of oil that has been loaded and waiting for nearly four months. This temporary surge is masking a much deeper supply problem that the world has been papering over with strategic reserves. Once the backlog is gone, the real supply picture will come into focus fast. THE HORMUZ BACKLOG REALITY ➡️ The recent movement of 19.1 million barrels per day is not new oil from opened wells or increased production. ➡️ It is not coming from storage tanks sitting at the ports ready to go. ➡️ Every single barrel was loaded onto tankers before the strait closed and has been stuck waiting for safe passage. ➡️ The main body of the strait is still not open and remains full of mines. ➡️ Only a narrow pathway is being used to let these long-delayed vessels through. THE SCALE OF WHAT JUST MOVED ➡️ When the strait closed, estimates show 110 to 120 million barrels of oil were trapped on vessels behind the gate. ➡️ That amount equals just one day of total global consumption at 104 million barrels per day. ➡️ At the pace seen recently, that entire backlog will clear in roughly five to six days. ➡️ After those days pass, there will be no equivalent volume of new oil taking its place. THE FOUR-MONTH SUPPLY HOLE ➡️ The closure created a massive 1.2 to 1.5 billion barrel deficit over almost four months. ➡️ The world responded by draining strategic reserves, pipelines, and every available storage to prevent prices from reaching 150 or 200 dollars. ➡️ That emergency action suppressed prices and created the current calm at around 70 dollars and fifty cents. ➡️ But those reserves cannot be drained indefinitely. THE PRICE ILLUSION ➡️ Oil trading near 70 dollars today exists because traders are dumping positions on the back of this one-time inventory release. ➡️ The media is calling it a solution and record progress through the strait. ➡️ In truth, production has not ramped up and new infrastructure is still months away from delivering. ➡️ This is a pretend moment of adequate supply that will not last. THE COMING WHIPLASH ➡️ In five to eight days the extra 100 million barrels of backlog oil will be absorbed into the global supply chain. ➡️ Physical buyers needing real barrels for customers will then enter the market in force. ➡️ A daily shortfall of 8 to 12 million barrels could become clear within three to four weeks. ➡️ The shift from trader covering losses to genuine physical demand will create a sharp reversal. THE BOTTOM LINE The recent drop in oil prices is riding on the final escape of oil that was already in the system long before the recent disruptions. That temporary relief is ending fast, and the underlying four-month supply hole remains unfilled. The market is about to discover that celebrating this surge was premature. This is the sound of the real supply picture reasserting itself. HT: YouTube Eckard Enterprises | Oil & Gas Investing #OilPrices #HormuzBacklog #CrudeOilReality #SupplyShortage #EnergyMarkets #OilWhiplash

Mark

73,368 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

March 9: "We're now totally independent of the Middle East. We don't need their oil." April 1: "It doesn't really affect us. We have so much oil. We have tremendous oil and gas, much more than we need." June 17: If I didn't agree to the MOU, we "would run out of reserves at about 4 weeks...we would really run out, and there'll be a time when you wouldn't be able to get it."

March 9: "We're now totally independent of the Middle East. We don't need their oil." April 1: "It doesn't really affect us. We have so much oil. We have tremendous oil and gas, much more than we need." June 17: If I didn't agree to the MOU, we "would run out of reserves at about 4 weeks...we would really run out, and there'll be a time when you wouldn't be able to get it."

MeidasTouch

1,386,804 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten