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"OpenAI and Anthropic are pretty different animals from a capital efficiency perspective. And Anthropic clearly has a dramatically lower cost per token than OpenAI. They burned maybe 80% less than OpenAI. So as businesses, they clearly have very different structural ROICs." - A solid, insightful interview featuring Gavin Baker... show more

Rohan Paul

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Gavin Baker: "Anthropic is roughly four times more capital efficient than OpenAI - they're growing really fast and they're not burning that much cash" this is him explaining why he thinks token efficiency decides who wins, why xAI has the lowest cost per token of anyone, and what a Tesla board member says is actually the most advanced AI in the world right now "an Anthropic model can give you a comparable quality answer to a Google model using half as many tokens - and each token is literally cost" "xAI has the lowest cost per token because they build data centers faster and at a lower cost than everyone, and they run GPUs at a higher utilization" Tesla board member Antonio Gracias: "Tesla actually is today the most advanced AI in the world - it does the most complex thing a human does, drive a car" bookmark & watch the full conversation ↓

Gavin Baker: "Anthropic is roughly four times more capital efficient than OpenAI - they're growing really fast and they're not burning that much cash" this is him explaining why he thinks token efficiency decides who wins, why xAI has the lowest cost per token of anyone, and what a Tesla board member says is actually the most advanced AI in the world right now "an Anthropic model can give you a comparable quality answer to a Google model using half as many tokens - and each token is literally cost" "xAI has the lowest cost per token because they build data centers faster and at a lower cost than everyone, and they run GPUs at a higher utilization" Tesla board member Antonio Gracias: "Tesla actually is today the most advanced AI in the world - it does the most complex thing a human does, drive a car" bookmark & watch the full conversation ↓

Сarm1ne

128,347 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

💡 You’re either a token producer or consumer. Gavin Baker, Chief Investment Officer and Managing Partner at Atreides Management, LP, sets the stage for the next phase of tokens and how they will be an incredibly vital asset for businesses. 📺 Watch the full #NVIDIAGTC Live Pregame Show:

💡 You’re either a token producer or consumer. Gavin Baker, Chief Investment Officer and Managing Partner at Atreides Management, LP, sets the stage for the next phase of tokens and how they will be an incredibly vital asset for businesses. 📺 Watch the full #NVIDIAGTC Live Pregame Show:

NVIDIA AI Infrastructure

182,440 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

ICYMI: OpenAI, Anthropic, & SpaceX are scaling dramatically faster than the Mag 7 ever did ..and they’re still private. “The biggest IPO of the Mag 7 was Meta in 2012, IPO’d around $100 Billion." Today: - OpenAI: $852 billion - SpaceX: $1.25 trillion - Anthropic: $380 billion [with a reported $900B round incoming] Jaimin Rangwalla, Chief Investment Officer of Public Investments at COATUE

ICYMI: OpenAI, Anthropic, & SpaceX are scaling dramatically faster than the Mag 7 ever did ..and they’re still private. “The biggest IPO of the Mag 7 was Meta in 2012, IPO’d around $100 Billion." Today: - OpenAI: $852 billion - SpaceX: $1.25 trillion - Anthropic: $380 billion [with a reported $900B round incoming] Jaimin Rangwalla, Chief Investment Officer of Public Investments at COATUE

Molly O’Shea

72,324 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

Anthropic CFO Krishna Rao talks about the cultural interview part in the Anthropic employee selection process. "Somebody could be flying colors on everything else and really the smartest person you've met in this role. we won't hire them if they don't pass the culture bar." ---- From "Invest Like The Best" YouTube channel, (link in comment)

Anthropic CFO Krishna Rao talks about the cultural interview part in the Anthropic employee selection process. "Somebody could be flying colors on everything else and really the smartest person you've met in this role. we won't hire them if they don't pass the culture bar." ---- From "Invest Like The Best" YouTube channel, (link in comment)

Rohan Paul

20,344 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

.Gavin Baker on Invest Like the Best: "My friend Jaimin from COATUE just did a podcast." "They talked about how the sellers of shortage are doing so much better than the buyers of shortage—the buyers of shortage being the hyperscalers." "But if you own a giant install base of what is currently in shortage, that's also a very good place to be." Full podcast ⤵️

.Gavin Baker on Invest Like the Best: "My friend Jaimin from COATUE just did a podcast." "They talked about how the sellers of shortage are doing so much better than the buyers of shortage—the buyers of shortage being the hyperscalers." "But if you own a giant install base of what is currently in shortage, that's also a very good place to be." Full podcast ⤵️

Molly O’Shea

59,478 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

Dylan on why Anthropic leading on models doesn't mean OpenAI loses. Even the tier 2 and 3 labs will sell out of tokens: "Everyone's like Anthropic won. They had Mythos, Opus 4.7 and their revenue is adding $10 billion a month all before OpenAI's alleged Spud release. So clearly Anthropic is in the lead and OpenAI is cooked. Anthropic has such bounds on compute, they can only grow it so fast. Dario used to gloat about how OpenAI was being too aggressive on compute and Anthropic was more sensible in their scaling. Now Anthropic is like I wish we had a lot more compute. OpenAI just raised a ton of money to get incremental compute in addition to the irresponsible levels of compute that they were buying. By the end of the year, let's say a 4.6 Opus tier model, the economy would spend $100 billion on. Anthropic won't have enough compute to do that. And presumably OpenAI and Google will hit that tier soon. Anthropic may get to charge 70%+ gross margins but if OpenAI hits it next, they charge 50% gross margins. They still get all of this incremental demand. There is such demand for these tokens and such limitations on compute. It's pretty clear even the tier 2 or tier 3 lab are going to be sold out of tokens. The economic value that the best model can deliver is growing faster than our ability to actually serve those tokens to people via the infrastructure."

Dylan on why Anthropic leading on models doesn't mean OpenAI loses. Even the tier 2 and 3 labs will sell out of tokens: "Everyone's like Anthropic won. They had Mythos, Opus 4.7 and their revenue is adding $10 billion a month all before OpenAI's alleged Spud release. So clearly Anthropic is in the lead and OpenAI is cooked. Anthropic has such bounds on compute, they can only grow it so fast. Dario used to gloat about how OpenAI was being too aggressive on compute and Anthropic was more sensible in their scaling. Now Anthropic is like I wish we had a lot more compute. OpenAI just raised a ton of money to get incremental compute in addition to the irresponsible levels of compute that they were buying. By the end of the year, let's say a 4.6 Opus tier model, the economy would spend $100 billion on. Anthropic won't have enough compute to do that. And presumably OpenAI and Google will hit that tier soon. Anthropic may get to charge 70%+ gross margins but if OpenAI hits it next, they charge 50% gross margins. They still get all of this incremental demand. There is such demand for these tokens and such limitations on compute. It's pretty clear even the tier 2 or tier 3 lab are going to be sold out of tokens. The economic value that the best model can deliver is growing faster than our ability to actually serve those tokens to people via the infrastructure."

Patrick OShaughnessy

295,307 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

SF Compute CEO evan conrad on his contrarian thesis that OpenAI and Anthropic won't eat the world, everyone will become OpenAI and Anthropic instead: "Our impression is not that OpenAI and Anthropic will eat the world, it's that everyone will look like OpenAI and Anthropic. That's simply the way that companies work now." "Every single company in the world that is of meaningful scale will look like a frontier lab. There is this belief that the large labs have won it all, and they've got this compounding advantage. The default assumption of that is assuming nobody else will do anything." "The bottleneck was there's 100 people, and they know how to train the models. Or you thought, the problem is compute. The problem of compute is credit. And OpenAI and Anthropic are not unique to having credit. In fact, they don't have as good credit as other people." "If you assume the problem is not the researchers, that that problem's basically gone away the moment you got to auto research, then what you should assume is that pretty much every other company is going to swap the way they work to look like a frontier lab. It won't be OpenAI and Anthropic take the whole world. It's that everyone's OpenAI and Anthropic now." San Francisco Compute

SF Compute CEO evan conrad on his contrarian thesis that OpenAI and Anthropic won't eat the world, everyone will become OpenAI and Anthropic instead: "Our impression is not that OpenAI and Anthropic will eat the world, it's that everyone will look like OpenAI and Anthropic. That's simply the way that companies work now." "Every single company in the world that is of meaningful scale will look like a frontier lab. There is this belief that the large labs have won it all, and they've got this compounding advantage. The default assumption of that is assuming nobody else will do anything." "The bottleneck was there's 100 people, and they know how to train the models. Or you thought, the problem is compute. The problem of compute is credit. And OpenAI and Anthropic are not unique to having credit. In fact, they don't have as good credit as other people." "If you assume the problem is not the researchers, that that problem's basically gone away the moment you got to auto research, then what you should assume is that pretty much every other company is going to swap the way they work to look like a frontier lab. It won't be OpenAI and Anthropic take the whole world. It's that everyone's OpenAI and Anthropic now." San Francisco Compute

MTS

135,154 Aufrufe • vor 24 Tagen

Gavin Baker on SpaceX's booming datacenter business: $15B from Anthropic is just the beginning @jason: “ Gavin, your take on the S-1, and I think specifically Elon Musk Web Services?” Gavin Baker: “$15 billion (from Anthropic), that means (SpaceX’s) AI business is going to quadruple. It has already effectively quadrupled. Their first data center was 122 days. For the second one, it took them 91 days. The third one was, I think, 66 days. They build data centers dramatically faster than anyone else at a lower cost. And now that you have a clear offtake partner, and I would expect ‘partner’ to become ‘partners,’ there is no reason they can't start stamping these data centers out really fast. And having watched Jensen for a long time, it is important to Jensen that his GPUs be used. And so GPUs will be allocated to who can plug them in, turn them on, and start converting electrons into tokens. And so I think this business can grow dramatically faster than maybe what anyone could have contemplated three months ago. But $15 billion from Anthropic is extraordinary.”

Gavin Baker on SpaceX's booming datacenter business: $15B from Anthropic is just the beginning @jason: “ Gavin, your take on the S-1, and I think specifically Elon Musk Web Services?” Gavin Baker: “$15 billion (from Anthropic), that means (SpaceX’s) AI business is going to quadruple. It has already effectively quadrupled. Their first data center was 122 days. For the second one, it took them 91 days. The third one was, I think, 66 days. They build data centers dramatically faster than anyone else at a lower cost. And now that you have a clear offtake partner, and I would expect ‘partner’ to become ‘partners,’ there is no reason they can't start stamping these data centers out really fast. And having watched Jensen for a long time, it is important to Jensen that his GPUs be used. And so GPUs will be allocated to who can plug them in, turn them on, and start converting electrons into tokens. And so I think this business can grow dramatically faster than maybe what anyone could have contemplated three months ago. But $15 billion from Anthropic is extraordinary.”

The All-In Podcast

82,903 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

Ben Thompson says OpenAI and Anthropic are Silicon Valley's two religious organizations, mainline and evangelical, and the belief they're creating God is why the riskiest labs have the biggest upside "OpenAI and Anthropic obviously are the riskiest, but also the biggest upside." "You know, they're just, never discount, number one, the power of belief. They think they're creating God." "The most impactful things in history have usually been fueled by religion." "And the two religious organizations in Silicon Valley are the sort of like, OpenAI is kind of like mainline, like they go to church every Sunday. They're sort of like evangelicals, that's Anthropic. Like, they're all in. It is core, their belief." "That goes a long way. The fact you need to make a business work for you to survive goes a very long way. Google just needs, like, search to not die too quickly."

Ben Thompson says OpenAI and Anthropic are Silicon Valley's two religious organizations, mainline and evangelical, and the belief they're creating God is why the riskiest labs have the biggest upside "OpenAI and Anthropic obviously are the riskiest, but also the biggest upside." "You know, they're just, never discount, number one, the power of belief. They think they're creating God." "The most impactful things in history have usually been fueled by religion." "And the two religious organizations in Silicon Valley are the sort of like, OpenAI is kind of like mainline, like they go to church every Sunday. They're sort of like evangelicals, that's Anthropic. Like, they're all in. It is core, their belief." "That goes a long way. The fact you need to make a business work for you to survive goes a very long way. Google just needs, like, search to not die too quickly."

Fireside Alpha

42,431 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Sam Altman just commented on Jacob Coxon’s 166M+ super viral tweet (the ex-Anthropic and OpenAI researcher who resigned). his new interview with Fortune Magazine "I think it is unacceptable to be taking like a 10% chance of killing everybody by the end of the decade." ---- From "Fortune Magazine" YouTube channel, (full video link in comment)

Sam Altman just commented on Jacob Coxon’s 166M+ super viral tweet (the ex-Anthropic and OpenAI researcher who resigned). his new interview with Fortune Magazine "I think it is unacceptable to be taking like a 10% chance of killing everybody by the end of the decade." ---- From "Fortune Magazine" YouTube channel, (full video link in comment)

Rohan Paul

96,420 Aufrufe • vor 6 Tagen

Chris Camillo made the most bullish case on $AMZN. Everyone worried when Amazon raised their capex to $200 billion Camillo believes they might make that $200 billion back on their Anthropic investment alone when Anthropic IPOs. What Amazon has done in the last 18 months is remarkable in scope. They didn't try to win the foundation model race against OpenAI and Google directly. They went a completely different direction, positioning themselves as the infrastructure underneath everything that is AI. Trainium chips, cloud buildout, advertising integration and equity stakes in two of the three most important AI companies on the planet. First Anthropic. Now $50 billion into OpenAI on top of that. And that OpenAI investment isn't just a financial bet. It ties OpenAI into Amazon's cloud ecosystem, probably permanently. Two of the big three AI labs now run on Amazon infrastructure. Google is the only one that doesn't. The market has spent two years debating who builds the best model. Amazon decided to own the plumbing those models run on and bought equity in the winners while they were at it.

Chris Camillo made the most bullish case on $AMZN. Everyone worried when Amazon raised their capex to $200 billion Camillo believes they might make that $200 billion back on their Anthropic investment alone when Anthropic IPOs. What Amazon has done in the last 18 months is remarkable in scope. They didn't try to win the foundation model race against OpenAI and Google directly. They went a completely different direction, positioning themselves as the infrastructure underneath everything that is AI. Trainium chips, cloud buildout, advertising integration and equity stakes in two of the three most important AI companies on the planet. First Anthropic. Now $50 billion into OpenAI on top of that. And that OpenAI investment isn't just a financial bet. It ties OpenAI into Amazon's cloud ecosystem, probably permanently. Two of the big three AI labs now run on Amazon infrastructure. Google is the only one that doesn't. The market has spent two years debating who builds the best model. Amazon decided to own the plumbing those models run on and bought equity in the winners while they were at it.

Milk Road Stocks

41,351 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Chris Camillo just made the most bullish case on $AMZN. Everyone worried when Amazon raised their capex to $200 billion Camillo believes they might make that $200 billion back on their Anthropic investment alone when Anthropic IPOs. What Amazon has done in the last 18 months is remarkable in scope. They didn't try to win the foundation model race against OpenAI and Google directly. They went a completely different direction, positioning themselves as the infrastructure underneath everything that is AI. Trainium chips, cloud buildout, advertising integration and equity stakes in two of the three most important AI companies on the planet. First Anthropic. Now $50 billion into OpenAI on top of that. And that OpenAI investment isn't just a financial bet. It ties OpenAI into Amazon's cloud ecosystem, probably permanently. Two of the big three AI labs now run on Amazon infrastructure. Google is the only one that doesn't. The market has spent two years debating who builds the best model. Amazon decided to own the plumbing those models run on and bought equity in the winners while they were at it.

Chris Camillo just made the most bullish case on $AMZN. Everyone worried when Amazon raised their capex to $200 billion Camillo believes they might make that $200 billion back on their Anthropic investment alone when Anthropic IPOs. What Amazon has done in the last 18 months is remarkable in scope. They didn't try to win the foundation model race against OpenAI and Google directly. They went a completely different direction, positioning themselves as the infrastructure underneath everything that is AI. Trainium chips, cloud buildout, advertising integration and equity stakes in two of the three most important AI companies on the planet. First Anthropic. Now $50 billion into OpenAI on top of that. And that OpenAI investment isn't just a financial bet. It ties OpenAI into Amazon's cloud ecosystem, probably permanently. Two of the big three AI labs now run on Amazon infrastructure. Google is the only one that doesn't. The market has spent two years debating who builds the best model. Amazon decided to own the plumbing those models run on and bought equity in the winners while they were at it.

Milk Road Macro

55,169 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

Gavin Baker: Anthropic Believes They Could Be the ONLY Company Left in the World “I would certainly discourage Dario from saying that ever again to anyone.” Gavin Baker: “Internally, Anthropic is very confident. I have been told by multiple people I trust that Dario has said that Anthropic might be the only private company in the world at some point. Think about that. In this vision, an Anthropic maximalist vision, there's Anthropic, and then there are governments, and that's it. So there's a lot of confidence. I'm sure they have more advanced checkpoints than Fable up their sleeve. They've executed really, really well. I would probably take the under on them being the only private company in the world. Yeah, I think it's gonna be a long time before they land a rocket.” @jason: “Or they deliver your lunch. I don't know. There might be other businesses in the world. Zipline might want to bring you a burrito. Uber might want to take you somewhere. Waymo might want to drive you home. But sure, Dario.” David Sacks: “I might interpret that as a negative signal because it's so hubristic. This is getting into SBF land a little bit.” Gavin: “I would certainly discourage Dario from saying that ever again to anyone.”

Gavin Baker: Anthropic Believes They Could Be the ONLY Company Left in the World “I would certainly discourage Dario from saying that ever again to anyone.” Gavin Baker: “Internally, Anthropic is very confident. I have been told by multiple people I trust that Dario has said that Anthropic might be the only private company in the world at some point. Think about that. In this vision, an Anthropic maximalist vision, there's Anthropic, and then there are governments, and that's it. So there's a lot of confidence. I'm sure they have more advanced checkpoints than Fable up their sleeve. They've executed really, really well. I would probably take the under on them being the only private company in the world. Yeah, I think it's gonna be a long time before they land a rocket.” @jason: “Or they deliver your lunch. I don't know. There might be other businesses in the world. Zipline might want to bring you a burrito. Uber might want to take you somewhere. Waymo might want to drive you home. But sure, Dario.” David Sacks: “I might interpret that as a negative signal because it's so hubristic. This is getting into SBF land a little bit.” Gavin: “I would certainly discourage Dario from saying that ever again to anyone.”

The All-In Podcast

1,791,974 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

$Boris Cherny, head of Claude Code at Anthropic: "I don't prompt Claude anymore. I have loops that are running; they are the ones prompting Claude and figuring out what to do. My job is to write loops." He's right. Karpathy and Steinberger arrived at the same conclusion from different angles. The skill has a new name. Loop engineering. Cherny's token bill is zero. He works at Anthropic. Steinberger burned $1.3 million in OpenAI credits in 30 days. He works at OpenAI. Loops are the right architecture. But the people evangelizing them aren't the ones paying. I wrote a breakdown of five plays that land most of what a loop gives you at a fraction of the cost, plus the one case where a loop is worth paying for.$

Boris Cherny, head of Claude Code at Anthropic: "I don't prompt Claude anymore. I have loops that are running; they are the ones prompting Claude and figuring out what to do. My job is to write loops." He's right. Karpathy and Steinberger arrived at the same conclusion from different angles. The skill has a new name. Loop engineering. Cherny's token bill is zero. He works at Anthropic. Steinberger burned $1.3 million in OpenAI credits in 30 days. He works at OpenAI. Loops are the right architecture. But the people evangelizing them aren't the ones paying. I wrote a breakdown of five plays that land most of what a loop gives you at a fraction of the cost, plus the one case where a loop is worth paying for.

Alex Prompter

15,166 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

So comes the biggest threat to the AI trade, which relies on ever-increasing revenues to the AI model companies to support ever-increasing valuations. Those revenues are a function of price and quantity. Quantities are all good, from my perspective. Despite increasing competition from open source and Chinese models, OpenAI and Anthropic continue adding more businesses and drawing more token usage from new and existing customers. Price, as a lever, is deteriorating. Over the last month, the average cost per million tokens has fallen 27%. This week, OpenAI cut prices for it's frontier model by another 20%. Further gains to the model companies will have to rely on driving more volume, and driving it even faster as prices fall, to support their valuations.

So comes the biggest threat to the AI trade, which relies on ever-increasing revenues to the AI model companies to support ever-increasing valuations. Those revenues are a function of price and quantity. Quantities are all good, from my perspective. Despite increasing competition from open source and Chinese models, OpenAI and Anthropic continue adding more businesses and drawing more token usage from new and existing customers. Price, as a lever, is deteriorating. Over the last month, the average cost per million tokens has fallen 27%. This week, OpenAI cut prices for it's frontier model by another 20%. Further gains to the model companies will have to rely on driving more volume, and driving it even faster as prices fall, to support their valuations.

Ara Kharazian

36,878 Aufrufe • vor 25 Tagen

Introducing USVC — a new fund from AngelList, for individual investors, starting at $500. One investment for exposure to private tech companies — from early-stage startups to companies scaling toward IPO. → Venture capital funded the early stages of nearly every major tech company you use today. But historically, most people couldn't invest until the IPO, when the early growth was already captured. USVC is how you invest in venture capital. The portfolio already includes xAI, Anthropic, OpenAI, Sierra, Vercel, Crusoe, and Legora. USVC is the venture layer of your portfolio. Ankur Nagpal is leading USVC as GP / Portfolio Manager, Naval is the Chairman of Investment Committee, and Cyan Banister Arielle "AZ" Zuckerberg and Jeff Fagnan are joining as advisors. The future has shareholders. Become one of them.

Introducing USVC — a new fund from AngelList, for individual investors, starting at $500. One investment for exposure to private tech companies — from early-stage startups to companies scaling toward IPO. → Venture capital funded the early stages of nearly every major tech company you use today. But historically, most people couldn't invest until the IPO, when the early growth was already captured. USVC is how you invest in venture capital. The portfolio already includes xAI, Anthropic, OpenAI, Sierra, Vercel, Crusoe, and Legora. USVC is the venture layer of your portfolio. Ankur Nagpal is leading USVC as GP / Portfolio Manager, Naval is the Chairman of Investment Committee, and Cyan Banister Arielle "AZ" Zuckerberg and Jeff Fagnan are joining as advisors. The future has shareholders. Become one of them.

Andrew Ettinger 🇺🇸

207,288 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

📁 Emad Mostaque says AI is turning into a money-making machine. Anthropic is already nearing 10 billion in revenue, OpenAI is accelerating, and per token pricing looks like open warfare. Mostaque even suggests Grok 5 could pay for all its GPUs by competing as the world's best hedge fund. The new frontier is AIs that not only work but pay for themselves.

📁 Emad Mostaque says AI is turning into a money-making machine. Anthropic is already nearing 10 billion in revenue, OpenAI is accelerating, and per token pricing looks like open warfare. Mostaque even suggests Grok 5 could pay for all its GPUs by competing as the world's best hedge fund. The new frontier is AIs that not only work but pay for themselves.

Jon Hernandez

28,149 Aufrufe • vor 9 Monaten

Naval just opened the door to OpenAI and Anthropic for as little as $500 EllioTrades thinks normal people have been watching generational wealth get created from the sidelines for too long. "OpenAI, almost a trillion dollars. Still private. SpaceX, $2 trillion. Still private." "Funds like this will allow retail to get into the best future companies without having to put in a million dollars."

Naval just opened the door to OpenAI and Anthropic for as little as $500 EllioTrades thinks normal people have been watching generational wealth get created from the sidelines for too long. "OpenAI, almost a trillion dollars. Still private. SpaceX, $2 trillion. Still private." "Funds like this will allow retail to get into the best future companies without having to put in a million dollars."

EllioTrades Clips

23,492 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten