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OpenAI Brad Lightcap says model training cycles are collapsing, driving rapid jumps from GPT-5.1 to 5.4 GPT-5.4 is days old and already doing a $1B run rate revenue, processing 5 trillion tokens daily "by year's end, we'll laugh at today's models. they'll seem pedestrian"

54,636 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten •via X (Twitter)

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Thanksgiving-week treat: an epic conversation on Frontier AI with Lukasz Kaiser -co-author of “Attention Is All You Need” (Transformers) and leading research scientist at OpenAI working on GPT-5.1-era reasoning models. 00:00 – Cold open and intro 01:29 – “AI slowdown” vs a wild week of new frontier models 08:03 – Low-hanging fruit, infra, RL training and better data 11:39 – What is a reasoning model, in plain language 17:02 – Chain-of-thought and training the thinking process with RL 21:39 – Łukasz’s path: from logic and France to Google and Kurzweil 24:20 – Inside the Transformer story and what “attention” really means 28:42 – From Google Brain to OpenAI: culture, scale and GPUs 32:49 – What’s next for pre-training, GPUs and distillation 37:29 – Can we still understand these models? Circuits, sparsity and black boxes 39:42 – GPT-4 → GPT-5 → GPT-5.1: what actually changed 42:40 – Post-training, safety and teaching GPT-5.1 different tones 46:16 – How long should GPT-5.1 think? Reasoning tokens and jagged abilities 47:43 – The five-year-old’s dot puzzle that still breaks frontier models 52:22 – Generalization, child-like learning and whether reasoning is enough 53:48 – Beyond Transformers: ARC, LeCun’s ideas and multimodal bottlenecks 56:10 – GPT-5.1 Codex Max, long-running agents and compaction 1:00:06 – Will foundation models eat most apps? The translation analogy and trust 1:02:34 – What still needs to be solved, and where AI might go next

Matt Turck

168,007 Aufrufe • vor 8 Monaten

Karpathy told Dwarkesh that a 1 billion parameter model, trained on clean data, could hit the intelligence of today's 1.8 trillion parameter frontier. That is a 1,800x compression claim. The math behind it is more defensible than it sounds. When researchers at frontier labs look at random samples from their training corpus, they see stock ticker symbols, broken HTML, forum spam, autogenerated gibberish. Not Wikipedia. Not the Wall Street Journal. The actual pretraining dataset is mostly noise, and the model is burning parameters to vaguely remember all of it. One estimate pegs Llama 3's information compression at 0.07 bits per token. Well-structured English carries around 1.5 bits per token of real information. The trillion-parameter model is holding a roughly 5% resolution image of the internet it trained on. So when a lab ships a 1.8 trillion parameter model, the overwhelming majority of those weights are handling rough memorization. They are compression overhead for a noisy training set, taking up capacity that could be doing reasoning instead. Karpathy's proposal is to separate the two. Build a cognitive core: a small model that contains only the algorithms for reasoning and problem-solving, stripped of encyclopedic memorization. Pair it with external memory the model queries when it needs a fact. A 1 billion parameter reasoner plus retrieval beats a 1.8 trillion parameter model trying to do both. The data already supports this direction. GPT-4o runs at roughly 200 billion parameters and outperforms the original 1.8 trillion GPT-4. Inference costs for GPT-3.5 level performance fell 280x between 2022 and 2024, driven almost entirely by smaller, cleaner, better-architected models. The trend line is pointing where Karpathy says it should. The real implication for anyone tracking the AI trade: data quality is the actual constraint. The companies winning the next phase will be the ones who figured out what to train on, and what to throw away.

Aakash Gupta

507,952 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

Andrej Karpathy just made one of the most interesting arguments about AI model design that most people are completely missing. His take is that frontier AI models are not too big because the technology is complex and too big because the training data is garbage. When you or I think of the internet, we picture Wall Street Journal articles, Wikipedia entries, serious writing. That is not what a pretraining dataset looks like. When researchers at frontier labs look at random documents from the actual training corpus, it is stock ticker symbols, broken HTML, spam, gibberish. One estimate puts Llama 3's information compression at just 0.07 bits per token meaning the model has only a hazy recollection of most of what it trained on. So we build trillion parameter models not because we need a trillion parameter brain but because we need a trillion-parameter compression engine to squeeze some intelligence out of a firehose of noise. Most of those parameters are doing memory work, not cognitive work. Karpathy's prediction is separate the two entirely. Build a cognitive core, a model that contains only the algorithms for reasoning and problem-solving, stripped of encyclopedic memorization and pair it with external memory that it can query when it needs facts. He thinks a cognitive core trained on high-quality data could hit genuine intelligence at around one billion parameters. For reference, today's flagship models run between 200 billion and 1.8 trillion parameters with most of that weight dedicated to remembering the internet's slop. The trend is already moving his direction. GPT-4o operates at roughly 200 billion parameters and outperforms the original 1.8 trillion-parameter GPT-4. Inference costs for GPT-3.5-level performance dropped 280-fold between 2022 and 2024 driven almost entirely by smaller, cleaner, better-architected models. The real bottleneck in AI right now is not compute but rather data quality.

Milk Road AI

200,325 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

GPT-5 is live in Cline. We've been working with OpenAI to get this model ready, and here's our take: it's disciplined, persistent, & highly competent. It's collaborative in planning & and a diligent operator while acting. It plans thoroughly, asks optioned follow-ups when needed, & then gets out of the way and ships code. On long tasks it keeps going before pausing to check in. It follows instructions to the letter. And most importantly -- it writes good code. GPT-5 is like "The Wolf" from Pulp Fiction. Comes in, assesses the situation, then executes. Here's what you can expect from GPT-5 in Cline: > verbose while planning; terse while executing > asks a lot of good clarification questions, & frequently provides options when appropriate > strong context retention and persistence over long horizons (256k context window) > good at diff-style edits and multi-file changes (we'll monitor as more usage data comes in) > quiet in Act mode -- writes code without yapping Metaprompting is another strength. We tested early with OpenAI and used GPT-5 to tune our own prompt for GPT-5. Here's a pattern we like: “Answer from your own perspective: what changes or additions would help you better follow this prompt? Here is the prompt (or snippet): [snippet]. Users have complained about X and Y. What minimal edits would you make while keeping the rest intact?” Do you need to change any of your existing patterns in Cline? No -- it's good out of the box. Give a clear goal and constraints, let it plan, then let it cook. Expect more clarifying questions than most models. Pricing: $1.25/M input tokens (+90% cache), $10/M output. Roughly half of Sonnet 4 ($3/$15). Want to try GPT-5? Use it in Cline today for pure, unfiltered inference via the OpenAI, Cline, or OpenRouter providers. (fyi -- GPT-5 one-shotted this browser DAW below on the prompt "build something impressive to show me what you're capable of")

Cline

63,496 Aufrufe • vor 11 Monaten

I know your timeline is flooded now with word salads of "insane, HER, 10 features you missed, we're so back". Sit down. Chill. Take a deep breath like Mark does in the demo . Let's think step by step: - Technique-wise, OpenAI has figured out a way to map audio to audio directly as first-class modality, and stream videos to a transformer in real-time. These require some new research on tokenization and architecture, but overall it's a data and system optimization problem (as most things are). High-quality data can come from at least 2 sources: 1) Naturally occurring dialogues on YouTube, podcasts, TV series, movies, etc. Whisper can be trained to identify speaker turns in a dialogue or separate overlapping speeches for automated annotation. 2) Synthetic data. Run the slow 3-stage pipeline using the most powerful models: speech1->text1 (ASR), text1->text2 (LLM), text2->speech2 (TTS). The middle LLM can decide when to stop and also simulate how to resume from interruption. It could output additional "thought traces" that are not verbalized to help generate better reply. Then GPT-4o distills directly from speech1->speech2, with optional auxiliary loss functions based on the 3-stage data. After distillation, these behaviors are now baked into the model without emitting intermediate texts. On the system side: the latency would not meet real-time threshold if every video frame is decompressed into an RGB image. OpenAI has likely developed their own neural-first, streaming video codec to transmit the motion deltas as tokens. The communication protocol and NN inference must be co-optimized. For example, there could be a small and energy-efficient NN running on the edge device that decides to transmit more tokens if the video is interesting, and fewer otherwise. - I didn't expect GPT-4o to be closer to GPT-5, the rumored "Arrakis" model that takes multimodal in and out. In fact, it's likely an early checkpoint of GPT-5 that hasn't finished training yet. The branding betrays a certain insecurity. Ahead of Google I/O, OpenAI would rather beat our mental projection of GPT-4.5 than disappoint by missing the sky-high expectation for GPT-5. A smart move to buy more time. - Notably, the assistant is much more lively and even a bit flirty. GPT-4o is trying (perhaps a bit too hard) to sound like HER. OpenAI is eating Character AI's lunch, with almost 100% overlap in form factor and huge distribution channels. It's a pivot towards more emotional AI with strong personality, which OpenAI seemed to actively suppress in the past. - Whoever wins Apple first wins big time. I see 3 levels of integration with iOS: 1) Ditch Siri. OpenAI distills a smaller-tier, purely on-device GPT-4o for iOS, with optional paid upgrade to use the cloud. 2) Native features to stream the camera or screen into the model. Chip-level support for neural audio/video codec. 3) Integrate with iOS system-level action API and smart home APIs. No one uses Siri Shortcuts, but it's time to resurrect. This could become the AI agent product with a billion users from the get-go. The FSD for smartphones with a Tesla-scale data flywheel.

Jim Fan

991,756 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren

Cerebras inference is very fast. So fast that it changes how we think about configuring our LLMs for voice agent use cases. Kimi K2.6 is a 1T parameter reasoning model that Cerebras serves at 650 - 1,000 tokens per second (end-to-end throughput), with time to first token metrics as low as 150ms (latency). These numbers are two to three times faster than other similarly capable models. The biggest lever we get from this kind of speed is that we can use the model in reasoning mode, and still have excellent "time to first non-thinking token." This solves a big pain point we have in 2026 for voice agent use cases. Almost all recent innovation in post-training has focused on making models good at reasoning ("test time compute"). This is great, but it makes the user-facing model latency much, much slower. Which is a problem for conversational voice agents. We can run Kimi K2.6 with reasoning turned on, and get responses faster than other models produce with reasoning disabled. On my 30-turn voice agent benchmark, Kimi K2.6 with reasoning enabled ties GPT 5.1 and Haiku 4.5 with reasoning disabled, and is still about 200ms seconds faster! On my primary task agent benchmark, Kimi K2.6 is now the #2 model. It ranks just behind Gemini 3.5 Flash in "high" reasoning mode, and tied with GLM 5, Sonnet 4.6, and GPT 5.4 with reasoning set to "low." But Kimi K2.6 completes each turn in the agent loop in under 500ms. The other four models are all at least 3x slower. (Models only qualify for this benchmark if they can complete task turns at a P50 <4s.) A couple of other things that this speed buys us, for production voice agents: - Tool calls happen fast enough that we don't have to work around tool call latency in our pipeline design. - We can prompt the model to output structured data at the beginning of a response, followed by plain text for voice generation. This opens up possibilities like asking the model to do complex classification/generation tasks that influence the rest of the pipeline. For example, the model could create a detailed style prompt for a steerable TTS model, for each individual conversation turn. And, of course, you can use Kimi K2.6 with reasoning turned off. Cerebras calls this "instant" mode. Here's a video of a Cerebras Kimi K2.6 voice agent with voice-to-voice response time, measured at the client, under 500ms. This is the true response latency as perceived by the user, including all network and audio codec overhead, transcription and turn detection, Kimi K2.6 token generation, and voice generation. 500ms is, effectively, instant. So the Cerebras naming for this mode is a propos. :-)

kwindla

40,319 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten