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OpenAI CEO Sam Altman said AI infrastructure spending only works if new revenue flows into ecosystem after responding to a question about “circular financing.” $AMZN CEO Andy Jassy also added that its planned ~$200B 2026 CapEx is backed by strong demand signals and clear visibility to monetization over the...

97,333 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce •via X (Twitter)

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Morgan Stanley just raised their 2027 AI capex forecast to $1.1 trillion and that number still doesn't include SpaceX or a lot of the other AI companies (Save this). When you factor those in, the real 2027 figure is probably closer to $1.5 trillion and AI lab inference revenue combined is tracking toward $300 billion in 2027. On its surface that ratio sounds alarming, spending $1.5 trillion in capex to generate $300 billion in revenue. But the framing collapses the moment you examine two things the bears consistently ignore, gross margins and the revenue trajectory. Gross margins on inference revenue are running at 60 to 70 percent. That means the $300 billion in inference revenue generates $180 to $210 billion in gross profit and that number compounds rapidly as utilization scales on infrastructure that is already built and paid for. The Capex is not being deployed against today's revenue but rather being deployed against a revenue trajectory that has shown no signs of decelerating. To understand how aggressive that trajectory actually is, consider that Morgan Stanley's $1.1 trillion hyperscaler forecast is nearly double what analysts projected for the same year just twelve months ago And they described the demand as inelastic, meaning it is not slowing down regardless of rising costs, tighter financing conditions or geopolitical risk. The AI industry ended 2025 tracking well over $200 billion in combined inference revenue and the growth rate since then has continued to accelerate rather than flatten. Anthropic alone scaled from negligible revenue to a $30 billion annualized run rate in approximately 18 months while OpenAI is tracking toward $280 billion in annual revenue by 2030 from $13 billion in 2025. There is also a structural reality in the capex number that the bears never account for. Roughly 35 percent of total AI spending goes toward training, building the next model generation which is not revenue-generating in the current period. That means only about 65 percent of the $1.5 trillion in capex is actually deployed against the inference infrastructure that earns revenue today. When you apply the 60 to 70 percent gross margin to the revenue that sits on top of that 65 percent figure, the economics look substantially better than the headline capex to revenue ratio implies. Every CEO who has been closest to this buildout has consistently underestimated it and Jensen Huang projected $1 trillion in AI capex two years ago and was called delusional. Dario Amodei said in early 2026 that AI revenues would reach the low hundreds of billions by 2028 and trillions before 2030 and given where Anthropic's own revenue trajectory is today, he is likely revising those numbers upward. The pattern here is consistent, every time someone models the revenue ceiling, the actual number breaks through it faster than expected. Come join Milk Road Pro for our full breakdown, the real unit economics of the AI inference buildout, how the capex to revenue ratio evolves over the next three years, and our entire AI thesis! Link below!

Milk Road AI

21,141 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

OpenAI saga in 90 seconds: - Thursday night, Sam Altman gets a text from Ilya Sutskever, OpenAI’s chief scientist & board member asking to chat on Friday. - Friday at Noon, Sam Altman is fired by the Open AI board because he was “not consistently candid in his communications.” - CTO Mira Murati is made Interim CEO. - Microsoft, OpenAI’s largest investor, found out about the move 1 minute before the announcement. Their stock gets crushed. - Right after, Greg Brockman, OpenAI’s President is asked to chat, where he’s told he’s removed from the board but retaining his role. - Greg resigns from OpenAI in solidarity with Sam Altman shortly after. - Tech news & twitter subsequently blow the f*ck up. - Sam Altman fires off a few tweets saying how grateful he was for openAI and the people and how he’d have more things to say soon. - OpenAI employees start tweeting hearts supposedly a signal to the board of who would leave OpenAI to follow Sam Altman if the decision was kept. - By Saturday, rumors start that the OpenAI board is in discussions to bring Sam Altman back as CEO. - Sam Altman tweets out a picture of him wearing a guest pass at OpenAI HQ. - Microsoft & Satya Nadella lead the charge to negotiate with the board. - Board negotiation ends with Altman officially being out on Sunday night & employees streaming out of the office. - Monday morning Twitch cofounder Emmett Shear is named interim CEO. - Around the same time, Satya Nadella announces that Sam is joining Microsoft as the CEO of a new AI research group & former OpenAI leaders like Greg Brockman are joining him. - Still Monday Morning, OpenAI employees share a letter with the board where 650 of 700 employees tell the board to resign.

Alex Lieberman

957,503 görüntüleme • 2 yıl önce