#OTD 1992. General Election. Exit poll predicts Hung Parliament with vote "too close to call".

The 1992 exit poll is one of the great Mandela effects. A number of people I've spoken to over time have been convinced it predicted a Labour government.

I won £100 that night from Ladbroke's. I backed a Tory majority at 5/1. Probably the only time I've ever made any money from a Tory government!

I have a feeling John Major might just sneak it 😜

Ah the old "shy Tory" days. Back when the public wanted the pollsters to think they were less right-wing than they actually were. Nowadays it's the opposite if anything.

On this day, Sir John Major won over half a million personal votes as part of his personal mandate. No other Prime Minister has done that before Sir John Major or after Sir John Major ever.

This failure probably prompted the development of the current (extremely accurate) exit poll methodology, a marvel of statistical science:

I remember it. A depressing evening.

Hope the 'Shy Tories' were happy with what came after... Black Wednesday, rail privatisation...

we're alright... we're alright!

Oh yes opinion polling for the 1992 UK general election Vs reality of the actual election result, a small Conservative majority, and then again in the 2015 general election opinion polls vs results, the actual results proved markedly different from those indicated by the polls

Exit polls far more accurate these days with the change to anonymous duplicate ballots rather than just asking the person how they voted, which missed those shy Tories

The ‘prediction’ was literally changed moments before . Original had Labour in front but just short of a majority .

I worked for Ipsos at the time (before they bought MORI) and was interviewed by the FT and French radio about how the polls got it wrong (of the 50 opinion polls published during the election campaign period, 38 suggested Labour had a narrow but clear lead). Polls should ask which parties people are considering...much more interesting.

Glenys was actually quite nice looking, wasn't she? I've only ever seen her in real life once; in 2018 when she nearly hit me in her Fiat Panda while I was crossing Birdcage Walk. Obviously she was quite elderly by then though.

It is fashionable now to say major was week and useless but I suspect it will be some time before any current leader gets 41.4% of the vote and serves the full term

First General Election I remember watching all night. Was on school hols revising for my GCSEs. A beautiful sunny April day & lots of people going into vote at our village hall. Exciting night, we genuinely didn't know who would win. The best version of the BBC Election theme.

I won the grand national that year with party politics I think I got 50 quid

Exit poll was right, it was too close to call.. Do the maths people the 10 smallest maj combined was 2,726. If 2736 voted differently it would be hung Parliament. numbers where tiny!!

..and then David Amess in Basildon happened.

2029 might just happen like this

If I remember the outcome was a Conservative majority of 21 or 22 seats.

My first time voting in a General Election. Felt so excited!

Remember it well, it was a great evening see Kinnocks face. That Sheffield rally did the damage.

I left for Russia on 2 April with work, having cast my postal vote, and assumed Labour were going to win the election. I flew back on 9 April, got in the car, put on the radio and heard precisely this: ‘too close to call’. I don’t think I’ve ever quite got over it!

Wrong 😁

Can’t believe George Jones, didn’t win that one

Honest John won it 😂