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🇮🇷 🇸🇦 Over 50% odds Iran gets a nuclear weapon, and Saudi Arabia is on the same timeline. Fmr. U.S. diplomat Alan Eyre puts a number on the next 50 years, and it lands heavier coming from a man who spent his career trying to prevent exactly this: "Yeah,... show more

Mario Nawfal

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.JD Vance: "This is the immediate opening of the Strait of Hormuz... Iran will never have a nuclear weapon, and not just pursue a nuclear weapon, but procure a nuclear weapon or buy a nuclear weapon...it is going to fundamentally change the Middle East for the next 50 years"

.JD Vance: "This is the immediate opening of the Strait of Hormuz... Iran will never have a nuclear weapon, and not just pursue a nuclear weapon, but procure a nuclear weapon or buy a nuclear weapon...it is going to fundamentally change the Middle East for the next 50 years"

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🇸🇦🇺🇸 Saudi Arabia may get U.S. blessed uranium enrichment with light inspections, exactly the path Iran was bombed over... CNN reports the Trump administration has tentatively agreed to let Saudi Arabia enrich uranium without the Additional Protocol, the stricter inspection regime built to catch weapons work, and the deal has not yet reached Congress. Alan Eyre spent years negotiating with Iran over exactly this technology, and his translation lands hard: enrichment is the hard part of a bomb, so blessing it under lighter inspections is a runway to threshold status, a weapon available on a decision. Riyadh's logic is open. Burn less oil at home, export more, and hold what Iran holds. MBS said it years ago: "If Iran developed a nuke, we will follow suit as soon as possible." The cascade he once called axiomatic at the negotiating table is moving from theory toward policy. Then the number that stopped the room. Asked the odds Iran holds a nuclear weapon within 50 years: OVER 50%, definitely, and Saudi Arabia inside the same window, definitely. The last layer explains the regional mood: a real but never acknowledged Israeli arsenal sits untouched while Iran is bombed over capability alone. And deterrence has limits anyway. Israel has nuclear weapons and was attacked all the same. Alan Eyre

🇸🇦🇺🇸 Saudi Arabia may get U.S. blessed uranium enrichment with light inspections, exactly the path Iran was bombed over... CNN reports the Trump administration has tentatively agreed to let Saudi Arabia enrich uranium without the Additional Protocol, the stricter inspection regime built to catch weapons work, and the deal has not yet reached Congress. Alan Eyre spent years negotiating with Iran over exactly this technology, and his translation lands hard: enrichment is the hard part of a bomb, so blessing it under lighter inspections is a runway to threshold status, a weapon available on a decision. Riyadh's logic is open. Burn less oil at home, export more, and hold what Iran holds. MBS said it years ago: "If Iran developed a nuke, we will follow suit as soon as possible." The cascade he once called axiomatic at the negotiating table is moving from theory toward policy. Then the number that stopped the room. Asked the odds Iran holds a nuclear weapon within 50 years: OVER 50%, definitely, and Saudi Arabia inside the same window, definitely. The last layer explains the regional mood: a real but never acknowledged Israeli arsenal sits untouched while Iran is bombed over capability alone. And deterrence has limits anyway. Israel has nuclear weapons and was attacked all the same. Alan Eyre

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 The attack on a Gulf nuclear facility wasn't retaliation. It was a warning. Fmr. U.S. diplomat Alan Eyre says Iran is rewriting the rules of escalation, striking before it's struck to inject uncertainty into the equation. "It's almost an oxymoron, preemptive response. But yeah, Iran is showing that they don't necessarily always have to be the one who is going to retaliate for a US attack." The next wave isn't coming. It's already started. Alan Eyre

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The attack on a Gulf nuclear facility wasn't retaliation. It was a warning. Fmr. U.S. diplomat Alan Eyre says Iran is rewriting the rules of escalation, striking before it's struck to inject uncertainty into the equation. "It's almost an oxymoron, preemptive response. But yeah, Iran is showing that they don't necessarily always have to be the one who is going to retaliate for a US attack." The next wave isn't coming. It's already started. Alan Eyre

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🇺🇸 Over 50% chance the U.S. quietly moves its red line on the strait, and Trump himself once floated letting Iran run tolls on it. Fmr. U.S. diplomat Alan Eyre: "I don't think especially if the strait goes back to being closed or severely constrained, that the control of the strait is, for him, a deal breaker." The nuclear file is the fixation. Everything else is negotiable. Alan Eyre

🇺🇸 Over 50% chance the U.S. quietly moves its red line on the strait, and Trump himself once floated letting Iran run tolls on it. Fmr. U.S. diplomat Alan Eyre: "I don't think especially if the strait goes back to being closed or severely constrained, that the control of the strait is, for him, a deal breaker." The nuclear file is the fixation. Everything else is negotiable. Alan Eyre

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🇮🇷 🇮🇱 Iran gets hammered for a weapon it doesn't have... while Israel's real arsenal gets decades of American silence. Fmr. U.S. diplomat Alan Eyre lays out how the region reads the entire nuclear standoff: "They think it's a gross double standard that Israel gets to have nuclear weapons and Iran doesn't." One country bombed over a program intelligence said was nowhere close. Another sitting on an actual arsenal nobody in Washington will even name. The Middle East isn't missing the irony. Alan Eyre

🇮🇷 🇮🇱 Iran gets hammered for a weapon it doesn't have... while Israel's real arsenal gets decades of American silence. Fmr. U.S. diplomat Alan Eyre lays out how the region reads the entire nuclear standoff: "They think it's a gross double standard that Israel gets to have nuclear weapons and Iran doesn't." One country bombed over a program intelligence said was nowhere close. Another sitting on an actual arsenal nobody in Washington will even name. The Middle East isn't missing the irony. Alan Eyre

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🇺🇸 🇮🇷 Fmr. U.S. diplomat Alan Eyre just explained why the Kushner playbook fails completely when it comes to Iran. "If there's a McDonald's on every street corner in Tehran, if the U.S. presence is back in Iran, that's death to the Islamic Republic." Waving billions at a regime that profits from sanctions and fears Western culture more than poverty will never work. Alan Eyre

🇺🇸 🇮🇷 Fmr. U.S. diplomat Alan Eyre just explained why the Kushner playbook fails completely when it comes to Iran. "If there's a McDonald's on every street corner in Tehran, if the U.S. presence is back in Iran, that's death to the Islamic Republic." Waving billions at a regime that profits from sanctions and fears Western culture more than poverty will never work. Alan Eyre

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🚨🌍 THIS COULD STILL SPIRAL INTO A GROUND WAR Alan Eyre, former U.S. diplomat, Iran nuclear negotiator, says escalation is still on the table. He says rising troop deployments increase that risk. Alan Eyre

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🇮🇷 The dial gets turned down, and the world's oil supply goes with it. Fmr. U.S. diplomat Alan Eyre says an Israeli strike on Iran triggers a retaliation nothing like what we've seen before. "Think of the Strait of Hormuz as a dial. Whatever the dial is on the strait, it goes down." And that's before Iran even touches Gulf energy targets. Alan Eyre

🇮🇷 The dial gets turned down, and the world's oil supply goes with it. Fmr. U.S. diplomat Alan Eyre says an Israeli strike on Iran triggers a retaliation nothing like what we've seen before. "Think of the Strait of Hormuz as a dial. Whatever the dial is on the strait, it goes down." And that's before Iran even touches Gulf energy targets. Alan Eyre

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Alan Eyre, former senior U.S. diplomat and a member of the team who negotiated the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, says that the Trump administration likely "won’t get any sort of nuclear deal” in negotiations with Iran.

Alan Eyre, former senior U.S. diplomat and a member of the team who negotiated the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran, says that the Trump administration likely "won’t get any sort of nuclear deal” in negotiations with Iran.

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🇸🇦🇺🇸 The hardest part of building a nuke is enrichment, and the U.S. may be about to hand that capability to Saudi Arabia. Fmr. U.S. diplomat Alan Eyre says the proliferation safeguards every previous administration demanded are being waved away, and his explanation for why is as blunt as it gets. "Trump and this current U.S. administration, who are so keen to ingratiate themselves with the Kingdom and with the Emiratis, largely for reasons of personal enrichment, making a lot of money themselves or their kids, are willing to close their eyes and not insist on all the proliferation safeguards that other administrations insisted on." In Eyre's telling, the deal trades nuclear safeguards for cash. The enrichment question answers itself twice over. Alan Eyre

🇸🇦🇺🇸 The hardest part of building a nuke is enrichment, and the U.S. may be about to hand that capability to Saudi Arabia. Fmr. U.S. diplomat Alan Eyre says the proliferation safeguards every previous administration demanded are being waved away, and his explanation for why is as blunt as it gets. "Trump and this current U.S. administration, who are so keen to ingratiate themselves with the Kingdom and with the Emiratis, largely for reasons of personal enrichment, making a lot of money themselves or their kids, are willing to close their eyes and not insist on all the proliferation safeguards that other administrations insisted on." In Eyre's telling, the deal trades nuclear safeguards for cash. The enrichment question answers itself twice over. Alan Eyre

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JUST IN 🇺🇸🇮🇷: U.S. Vice President on Iran Having Nukes They just do not want Muslim Countries to have nuclear weapons. Saudi Arabia buys billions in Weapons from America, and the U.S. still does not trust them. Vance: "And it's not just them, because if the Iranians get a nuclear weapon, you know who gets a nuclear weapon like the next day? The Saudi Arabians. And then somebody else in the Gulf Arab state. And so you have nuclear proliferation on a global scale. The biggest threat to security in the world is a lot of people having nuclear weapons. So what the president has said is Iran's not going to get a nuclear weapon."

JUST IN 🇺🇸🇮🇷: U.S. Vice President on Iran Having Nukes They just do not want Muslim Countries to have nuclear weapons. Saudi Arabia buys billions in Weapons from America, and the U.S. still does not trust them. Vance: "And it's not just them, because if the Iranians get a nuclear weapon, you know who gets a nuclear weapon like the next day? The Saudi Arabians. And then somebody else in the Gulf Arab state. And so you have nuclear proliferation on a global scale. The biggest threat to security in the world is a lot of people having nuclear weapons. So what the president has said is Iran's not going to get a nuclear weapon."

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 VP Vance: An Iran nuke tomorrow means a Saudi nuke the day after “If the Iranians get a nuclear weapon, you know who gets a nuclear weapon like the next day? The Saudi Arabians. And then somebody else in the Gulf Arab state. And so you have nuclear proliferation on a global scale. The biggest threat to security in the world is a lot of people having nuclear weapons.” Source: Megyn Kelly

🇺🇸🇮🇷 VP Vance: An Iran nuke tomorrow means a Saudi nuke the day after “If the Iranians get a nuclear weapon, you know who gets a nuclear weapon like the next day? The Saudi Arabians. And then somebody else in the Gulf Arab state. And so you have nuclear proliferation on a global scale. The biggest threat to security in the world is a lot of people having nuclear weapons.” Source: Megyn Kelly

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🇮🇷 The nuclear threat isn't in a building. It never was. Fmr. U.S. diplomat Alan Eyre just explained why every military option misses the point. "You cannot get rid of Iran's nuclear weapons program kinetically. Unless you take over the country. Which, again, is preposterous." The knowledge lives in thousands of scientists. You can't bomb a brain trust. Alan Eyre

🇮🇷 The nuclear threat isn't in a building. It never was. Fmr. U.S. diplomat Alan Eyre just explained why every military option misses the point. "You cannot get rid of Iran's nuclear weapons program kinetically. Unless you take over the country. Which, again, is preposterous." The knowledge lives in thousands of scientists. You can't bomb a brain trust. Alan Eyre

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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The Trump administration is failing to sustain any momentum in the negotiations with Iran. Ex-JCPOA negotiator Alan Eyre believes that's the only sign you need to know how likely it is a deal will materialize. "It's about the same as the odds of Iran having a nuclear weapon. They'll get a phase one agreement. But look at the phase two for Gaza; they don't believe in a phase two. This administration cannot do the serious and sustained detailed negotiations that would result in a comprehensive nuclear agreement." Alan Eyre

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The Trump administration is failing to sustain any momentum in the negotiations with Iran. Ex-JCPOA negotiator Alan Eyre believes that's the only sign you need to know how likely it is a deal will materialize. "It's about the same as the odds of Iran having a nuclear weapon. They'll get a phase one agreement. But look at the phase two for Gaza; they don't believe in a phase two. This administration cannot do the serious and sustained detailed negotiations that would result in a comprehensive nuclear agreement." Alan Eyre

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🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran didn't need to win the war. It just had to outlast the country that started it. Alan Eyre spent 40 years in U.S. diplomacy and was a core negotiator on the 2015 Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA). His read on this moment is sharp, and not what most people expect: "Clausewitz said war is diplomacy by other means. Iran is saying diplomacy is war by other means." On the U.S. striking Iran every time Iran hits a ship: "It's flailing." He compares it to a chess endgame where the ending is already visible, the U.S. just hasn't accepted it. On America's broader trajectory: "This is 4% of the world controlling 25% of its resources. Well done. But yeah, it's done." His verdict on Lebanon: "doomed." I learned a lot from this conversation with Alan Eyre, and I think you will too.

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran didn't need to win the war. It just had to outlast the country that started it. Alan Eyre spent 40 years in U.S. diplomacy and was a core negotiator on the 2015 Iran nuclear deal (JCPOA). His read on this moment is sharp, and not what most people expect: "Clausewitz said war is diplomacy by other means. Iran is saying diplomacy is war by other means." On the U.S. striking Iran every time Iran hits a ship: "It's flailing." He compares it to a chess endgame where the ending is already visible, the U.S. just hasn't accepted it. On America's broader trajectory: "This is 4% of the world controlling 25% of its resources. Well done. But yeah, it's done." His verdict on Lebanon: "doomed." I learned a lot from this conversation with Alan Eyre, and I think you will too.

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The U.S. and Iran have reached an agreement that may reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but the harder negotiations on Iran's nuclear program lie ahead. "I think it's far more likely we will never get a nuclear deal," says former senior U.S. diplomat Alan Eyre.

The U.S. and Iran have reached an agreement that may reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but the harder negotiations on Iran's nuclear program lie ahead. "I think it's far more likely we will never get a nuclear deal," says former senior U.S. diplomat Alan Eyre.

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🇺🇸 The same pitch Netanyahu gave every president finally landed on one who was ready to believe it. Fmr. U.S. diplomat Alan Eyre: "He wanted to do the hat trick of Venezuela, Iran and Cuba." Trump isn't the first leader seduced by the fantasy of a quick war. He's just the most recent. Alan Eyre

🇺🇸 The same pitch Netanyahu gave every president finally landed on one who was ready to believe it. Fmr. U.S. diplomat Alan Eyre: "He wanted to do the hat trick of Venezuela, Iran and Cuba." Trump isn't the first leader seduced by the fantasy of a quick war. He's just the most recent. Alan Eyre

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INTERVIEW: Iran has leaked many aspects of the MOU, and in this conversation we go through the key points with someone who's spent years working on the Iran issue Alan Eyre has spent 2 years working on the JPOA under Obama, before Trump came in and ripped it all apart 😂 So chatting to him about this 2-page MOU, which tries to address what Alan addressed years ago, was fun and informative. This is a great discussion about that the MOU includes, and what coul happen next Alan Eyre

INTERVIEW: Iran has leaked many aspects of the MOU, and in this conversation we go through the key points with someone who's spent years working on the Iran issue Alan Eyre has spent 2 years working on the JPOA under Obama, before Trump came in and ripped it all apart 😂 So chatting to him about this 2-page MOU, which tries to address what Alan addressed years ago, was fun and informative. This is a great discussion about that the MOU includes, and what coul happen next Alan Eyre

Mario Nawfal

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🇺🇸 🇮🇷The U.S. side is threatening, boasting, and asking for photo ops with the country whose leaders it just killed. Fmr. U.S. diplomat Alan Eyre says that's why a deal is slipping away. "The US side are not engaging in consistent adult behavior." When your own diplomat sounds more like Tehran than Washington, something has gone very wrong. Alan Eyre

🇺🇸 🇮🇷The U.S. side is threatening, boasting, and asking for photo ops with the country whose leaders it just killed. Fmr. U.S. diplomat Alan Eyre says that's why a deal is slipping away. "The US side are not engaging in consistent adult behavior." When your own diplomat sounds more like Tehran than Washington, something has gone very wrong. Alan Eyre

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🚨🇺🇸 🇮🇷 THE ILLUSION OF STRATEGIC DETERRENCE Alan Eyre discusses why a successful nuclear test might actually decrease security rather than increase it. A test could invite more aggression and a direct push to topple the regime rather than deterring an attack. The real danger of Iranian proliferation is the domino effect it triggers across Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Alan Eyre

🚨🇺🇸 🇮🇷 THE ILLUSION OF STRATEGIC DETERRENCE Alan Eyre discusses why a successful nuclear test might actually decrease security rather than increase it. A test could invite more aggression and a direct push to topple the regime rather than deterring an attack. The real danger of Iranian proliferation is the domino effect it triggers across Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Alan Eyre

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