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🇮🇷 🇮🇱 Iran gets hammered for a weapon it doesn't have... while Israel's real arsenal gets decades of American silence. Fmr. U.S. diplomat Alan Eyre lays out how the region reads the entire nuclear standoff: "They think it's a gross double standard that Israel gets to have nuclear weapons... show more

Mario Nawfal

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105,362 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад •via X (Twitter)

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🇮🇷 🇸🇦 Over 50% odds Iran gets a nuclear weapon, and Saudi Arabia is on the same timeline. Fmr. U.S. diplomat Alan Eyre puts a number on the next 50 years, and it lands heavier coming from a man who spent his career trying to prevent exactly this: "Yeah, and the next 50 years, it is probable, meaning over 50%, that Iran will have a nuclear weapon. Definitely." A career diplomat calling proliferation probable, with the Saudis thrown into the forecast. The next 50 years just got a lot more dangerous. Alan Eyre

🇮🇷 🇸🇦 Over 50% odds Iran gets a nuclear weapon, and Saudi Arabia is on the same timeline. Fmr. U.S. diplomat Alan Eyre puts a number on the next 50 years, and it lands heavier coming from a man who spent his career trying to prevent exactly this: "Yeah, and the next 50 years, it is probable, meaning over 50%, that Iran will have a nuclear weapon. Definitely." A career diplomat calling proliferation probable, with the Saudis thrown into the forecast. The next 50 years just got a lot more dangerous. Alan Eyre

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 The attack on a Gulf nuclear facility wasn't retaliation. It was a warning. Fmr. U.S. diplomat Alan Eyre says Iran is rewriting the rules of escalation, striking before it's struck to inject uncertainty into the equation. "It's almost an oxymoron, preemptive response. But yeah, Iran is showing that they don't necessarily always have to be the one who is going to retaliate for a US attack." The next wave isn't coming. It's already started. Alan Eyre

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The attack on a Gulf nuclear facility wasn't retaliation. It was a warning. Fmr. U.S. diplomat Alan Eyre says Iran is rewriting the rules of escalation, striking before it's struck to inject uncertainty into the equation. "It's almost an oxymoron, preemptive response. But yeah, Iran is showing that they don't necessarily always have to be the one who is going to retaliate for a US attack." The next wave isn't coming. It's already started. Alan Eyre

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🇮🇷 The nuclear threat isn't in a building. It never was. Fmr. U.S. diplomat Alan Eyre just explained why every military option misses the point. "You cannot get rid of Iran's nuclear weapons program kinetically. Unless you take over the country. Which, again, is preposterous." The knowledge lives in thousands of scientists. You can't bomb a brain trust. Alan Eyre

🇮🇷 The nuclear threat isn't in a building. It never was. Fmr. U.S. diplomat Alan Eyre just explained why every military option misses the point. "You cannot get rid of Iran's nuclear weapons program kinetically. Unless you take over the country. Which, again, is preposterous." The knowledge lives in thousands of scientists. You can't bomb a brain trust. Alan Eyre

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The U.S. and Iran have reached an agreement that may reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but the harder negotiations on Iran's nuclear program lie ahead. "I think it's far more likely we will never get a nuclear deal," says former senior U.S. diplomat Alan Eyre.

The U.S. and Iran have reached an agreement that may reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but the harder negotiations on Iran's nuclear program lie ahead. "I think it's far more likely we will never get a nuclear deal," says former senior U.S. diplomat Alan Eyre.

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🇮🇷 The dial gets turned down, and the world's oil supply goes with it. Fmr. U.S. diplomat Alan Eyre says an Israeli strike on Iran triggers a retaliation nothing like what we've seen before. "Think of the Strait of Hormuz as a dial. Whatever the dial is on the strait, it goes down." And that's before Iran even touches Gulf energy targets. Alan Eyre

🇮🇷 The dial gets turned down, and the world's oil supply goes with it. Fmr. U.S. diplomat Alan Eyre says an Israeli strike on Iran triggers a retaliation nothing like what we've seen before. "Think of the Strait of Hormuz as a dial. Whatever the dial is on the strait, it goes down." And that's before Iran even touches Gulf energy targets. Alan Eyre

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🇺🇸🇮🇷Lebanon comes before nukes, and Tehran is betting Washington won't force Israel's hand. Fmr. U.S. diplomat Alan Eyre says Iran's opening move in negotiations isn't the nuclear file at all. "They want to see if Trump is willing to exercise control over Netanyahu, because if Trump isn't, that's a whole nother ball of wax." If Trump can't deliver Israel, Iran walks away with the wedge it wanted all along. Alan Eyre

🇺🇸🇮🇷Lebanon comes before nukes, and Tehran is betting Washington won't force Israel's hand. Fmr. U.S. diplomat Alan Eyre says Iran's opening move in negotiations isn't the nuclear file at all. "They want to see if Trump is willing to exercise control over Netanyahu, because if Trump isn't, that's a whole nother ball of wax." If Trump can't deliver Israel, Iran walks away with the wedge it wanted all along. Alan Eyre

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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The ceasefire won't stop Iran from quietly building toward a nuclear weapon. Ex-JCPOA negotiator Alan Eyre says Tehran's military will assume that it's only a matter of time before the U.S. poses another existential threat to the nations leadership. "One month, two months, six months, a year after this war ends, the military in charge of Iran, barring the unforeseen, will be thinking it's just a matter of time unless we have enough strategic deterrence." The Strait of Hormuz, missile rebuilds, and a nuclear push. None of that was on the table when Khamenei was alive. Alan Eyre

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🇺🇸 Over 50% chance the U.S. quietly moves its red line on the strait, and Trump himself once floated letting Iran run tolls on it. Fmr. U.S. diplomat Alan Eyre: "I don't think especially if the strait goes back to being closed or severely constrained, that the control of the strait is, for him, a deal breaker." The nuclear file is the fixation. Everything else is negotiable. Alan Eyre

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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The Trump administration is failing to sustain any momentum in the negotiations with Iran. Ex-JCPOA negotiator Alan Eyre believes that's the only sign you need to know how likely it is a deal will materialize. "It's about the same as the odds of Iran having a nuclear weapon. They'll get a phase one agreement. But look at the phase two for Gaza; they don't believe in a phase two. This administration cannot do the serious and sustained detailed negotiations that would result in a comprehensive nuclear agreement." Alan Eyre

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Flint: None of want Iran to have a nuclear bomb Adil Ray OBE: "Some people might also say they don't want Israel to have a nuclear bomb" Well said. A rare mention of the fact that while the media fixates on the possibility that Iran gets nuclear weapons, Israel already has them

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JUST IN 🇺🇸🇮🇷: U.S. Vice President on Iran Having Nukes They just do not want Muslim Countries to have nuclear weapons. Saudi Arabia buys billions in Weapons from America, and the U.S. still does not trust them. Vance: "And it's not just them, because if the Iranians get a nuclear weapon, you know who gets a nuclear weapon like the next day? The Saudi Arabians. And then somebody else in the Gulf Arab state. And so you have nuclear proliferation on a global scale. The biggest threat to security in the world is a lot of people having nuclear weapons. So what the president has said is Iran's not going to get a nuclear weapon."

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🎥 Will Iran Abandon Nuclear Restraint? For decades, Iran has refrained from developing nuclear weapons—not because it lacked the technical capacity, but because of a deliberate political and religious decision. A fatwa from the Supreme Leader declared nuclear arms forbidden under Islam. But after the U.S. and Israel bombed three Iranian nuclear sites this weekend—sites under regular IAEA inspection—that restraint is now under serious strain. “There are people in Iran asking that question right now,” Dr. Foad Izadi told Drop Site’. The question: What’s the point of cooperation? Izadi noted that two nuclear-armed states just launched an unprovoked attack on a non-nuclear country, without credible evidence of a weapons program. He pointed to the U.S. intelligence community’s own March report, which states: ➤ Iran does not have a nuclear weapon. ➤ Iran does not have a nuclear weapons program. ➤ Iranian leaders have not made a decision to pursue one. Even IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi, Izadi said, has consistently affirmed: “We have never found a nuclear weapons program in Iran.” Yet, Iran was bombed anyway. Izadi explained that the IAEA report cited by Western governments referenced materials from 20 to 30 years ago—files Iran believed were closed under the 2015 nuclear deal. Tehran now suspects Mossad may have planted radioactive traces to fabricate suspicion and justify military strikes. “There’s a lot of confusion and disinformation,” he said. But for many Iranians, the conclusion is simple: Iran upheld its obligations—and was attacked regardless. That, Izadi points out, is forcing a national reckoning with the logic of nuclear restraint. (Apologies for the poor audio quality. We’ll share a subtitled version of the clip below) jeremy scahill | فواد ایزدی Foad Izadi

🎥 Will Iran Abandon Nuclear Restraint? For decades, Iran has refrained from developing nuclear weapons—not because it lacked the technical capacity, but because of a deliberate political and religious decision. A fatwa from the Supreme Leader declared nuclear arms forbidden under Islam. But after the U.S. and Israel bombed three Iranian nuclear sites this weekend—sites under regular IAEA inspection—that restraint is now under serious strain. “There are people in Iran asking that question right now,” Dr. Foad Izadi told Drop Site’. The question: What’s the point of cooperation? Izadi noted that two nuclear-armed states just launched an unprovoked attack on a non-nuclear country, without credible evidence of a weapons program. He pointed to the U.S. intelligence community’s own March report, which states: ➤ Iran does not have a nuclear weapon. ➤ Iran does not have a nuclear weapons program. ➤ Iranian leaders have not made a decision to pursue one. Even IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi, Izadi said, has consistently affirmed: “We have never found a nuclear weapons program in Iran.” Yet, Iran was bombed anyway. Izadi explained that the IAEA report cited by Western governments referenced materials from 20 to 30 years ago—files Iran believed were closed under the 2015 nuclear deal. Tehran now suspects Mossad may have planted radioactive traces to fabricate suspicion and justify military strikes. “There’s a lot of confusion and disinformation,” he said. But for many Iranians, the conclusion is simple: Iran upheld its obligations—and was attacked regardless. That, Izadi points out, is forcing a national reckoning with the logic of nuclear restraint. (Apologies for the poor audio quality. We’ll share a subtitled version of the clip below) jeremy scahill | فواد ایزدی Foad Izadi

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 This war has been called many things. "Superpower suicide" might be the most accurate. Fmr. U.S. diplomat and JCPOA negotiator Alan Eyre gave one of the most sobering assessments of where this (broader) conflict is heading: The Houthis now control the Red Sea coastline, key islands in the Bab el-Mandeb, and Saudi pipelines, and that problem cannot be fixed from the air alone. On a U.S.-Iran deal: a diplomatic solution is possible, but only if the U.S. gets out of the way, lets China, the GCC, Pakistan, and Turkey lead, and limits its own role to nodding its head and agreeing to lift the blockade. On the BRICS and SCO summits: the U.S. sent nobody, and Eyre calls it diplomatic malpractice: "America First has become America alone." On China providing intelligence that killed 3 American soldiers: he doesn't think Trump will raise it seriously because a summit photo op matters more right now. "Our policy right now is driven by exasperation as opposed to contemplation." Superpowers do not operate on exasperation. Countries that have lost the plot do. Alan Eyre

🇺🇸🇮🇷 This war has been called many things. "Superpower suicide" might be the most accurate. Fmr. U.S. diplomat and JCPOA negotiator Alan Eyre gave one of the most sobering assessments of where this (broader) conflict is heading: The Houthis now control the Red Sea coastline, key islands in the Bab el-Mandeb, and Saudi pipelines, and that problem cannot be fixed from the air alone. On a U.S.-Iran deal: a diplomatic solution is possible, but only if the U.S. gets out of the way, lets China, the GCC, Pakistan, and Turkey lead, and limits its own role to nodding its head and agreeing to lift the blockade. On the BRICS and SCO summits: the U.S. sent nobody, and Eyre calls it diplomatic malpractice: "America First has become America alone." On China providing intelligence that killed 3 American soldiers: he doesn't think Trump will raise it seriously because a summit photo op matters more right now. "Our policy right now is driven by exasperation as opposed to contemplation." Superpowers do not operate on exasperation. Countries that have lost the plot do. Alan Eyre

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⭕️ U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio complained that Iran was spending its resources to bolster allies in the “Axis of Resistance” rather than on the domestic needs of its citizens. Alan Eyre, a former senior U.S. diplomat and the State Department’s first Persian-language spokesperson, pointed to the irony: “…says the country seeking a USD 1.5 trillion dollar ‘war’ budget.” Eyre spent much of his 40-year government career working on Iran and Middle East policy. Rubio also said Sunday that Washington remains open to diplomacy, but that the MOU could not be considered “alive” while Iran was attacking ships and restricting passage through the Strait of Hormuz. He claimed Tehran had sent signals through direct and indirect channels that it wanted to negotiate, but said Washington would continue its military response unless Iran changed course.

⭕️ U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio complained that Iran was spending its resources to bolster allies in the “Axis of Resistance” rather than on the domestic needs of its citizens. Alan Eyre, a former senior U.S. diplomat and the State Department’s first Persian-language spokesperson, pointed to the irony: “…says the country seeking a USD 1.5 trillion dollar ‘war’ budget.” Eyre spent much of his 40-year government career working on Iran and Middle East policy. Rubio also said Sunday that Washington remains open to diplomacy, but that the MOU could not be considered “alive” while Iran was attacking ships and restricting passage through the Strait of Hormuz. He claimed Tehran had sent signals through direct and indirect channels that it wanted to negotiate, but said Washington would continue its military response unless Iran changed course.

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