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Paul Ehrlich has been wrong about almost everything In 1970, he predicted the world would utterly break down before 1985. It would be unable to support humanity Didn't happen That's not a mistake, Ehrlich It is called being fundamentally wrong

934,077 görüntüleme • 3 yıl önce •via X (Twitter)

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.Elon Musk says that "the right metric for intelligence is the ability to predict the future." Elon says that if your predictions are not very good, you're not that smart. During his interview with CNBC, Elon confirmed that there would be fully autonomous Teslas on the streets of Austin by the end of June. I predicted that Tesla would not have non-geofenced, unsupervised Full Self-Driving Teslas in Austin by July 1. Today is July 1, and Elon's predictions were completely wrong. By his own definition of intelligence, he is not that smart. I have always been better at predicting things about Tesla Full Self-Driving than Elon Musk is. That's why No Safe Words crowned me the "world's leading autonomous vehicle safety expert". As I predicted, Tesla's "Robotaxi" is geofenced to a small area in Austin. It is not autonomous, and is supervised both remotely and from the passenger seat. The only passengers it has carried so far are Tesla Cultists and shareholders. Tesla has not launched a real robotaxi service like the one Waymo operates. The 11 supervised robotaxis it has deployed made at least 17 safety critical and driving errors in just the first week of operation. Elon predicted in October 2024 that Tesla would have a 30% growth in sales in 2025. Tesla's sales fell 13% in Q1 2025 and tomorrow's delivery numbers are expected to be similarly terrible. I predict that Tesla's sales growth in 2025 will be less than 30%. Elon also predicted every year for the past 11 years that Tesla would solve autonomous driving by the end of the year. His predictions have been wrong every single year for over a decade. I predict that Tesla will not solve autonomous driving this year. Elon says "you're as intelligent as you can predict the future well". He is terrible at predicting the future, so according to "the right metric for intelligence", he is not that smart. Elon also predicted that Tesla would have a "thousand" robotaxis "within a few months" during his CNBC interview. I predict that by October 1, Tesla will not have 1,000 robotaxis offering unsupervised rides to ordinary customers.

Dan O'Dowd

128,935 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

𝗙𝗘𝗧𝗧𝗘𝗥𝗠𝗔𝗡 𝗖𝗢𝗡𝗙𝗜𝗥𝗠𝗦 𝗪𝗛𝗔𝗧 𝗘𝗩𝗘𝗥𝗬𝗕𝗢𝗗𝗬 𝗔𝗟𝗥𝗘𝗔𝗗𝗬 𝗞𝗡𝗘𝗪 John Fetterman just diagnosed his own party on camera — and the diagnosis is brutal. Asked who the leader of the Democratic Party is right now, he didn't say Hakeem Jeffries. He didn't say Chuck Schumer. He didn't name a governor or a rising star. He said: 𝘛𝘋𝘚. 𝘛𝘳𝘶𝘮𝘱 𝘋𝘦𝘳𝘢𝘯𝘨𝘦𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘚𝘺𝘯𝘥𝘳𝘰𝘮𝘦 𝘪𝘴 𝘭𝘦𝘢𝘥𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘋𝘦𝘮𝘰𝘤𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘤 𝘗𝘢𝘳𝘵𝘺. And then he gave the clearest illustration of what that means: Trump could come out in favor of ice cream and lazy Sundays — and Democrats would hate it. They would vote it down. He said "we." That's a senator admitting his own party has completely lost its independent judgment and is now operating purely on the axis of whatever Trump is for, they're against. Voter ID? Against it. Secure border? Against it. Deporting criminals? Against it. Fund the agency that keeps airports safe? Against it — because ICE is in the same department. We've been saying this for months. Now one of their own senators is saying it publicly, with a shrug, like it's just an accepted fact of Democratic political life. The party that used to at least pretend to have principles has reduced itself to a single operating instruction: oppose Trump. Not because his policies are wrong. Not because they have a better idea. Because he's Trump. Fetterman is one of maybe three Democrats in elected office willing to say true things. That's not a healthy party. That's a party that's been hollowed out and replaced with pure reactionary rage. They'd vote down ice cream. Think about that the next time they tell you they're fighting for the American people.

M.A. Rothman

106,814 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce