Petr Pavel didn't drop some bombshell intelligence in that Telegraph interview. He simply said what every serious analyst already knows: Putin will not touch mobilization before the September Duma elections because even his own circus needs a veneer of normalcy. After the votes are counted the window slams shut... and another wave becomes inevitable. Not because of some mystical deadline, but because 721 thousand troops cannot finish the job in Donbas, let alone deliver the maximalist prize Putin still openly demands: the whole of Ukraine. Strip away the polite diplomatic phrasing and the reality is brutal. Moscow is bleeding men faster than it can recruit them. Ukrainian forces are currently destroying around 35,000 invaders per month, more than the Kremlin can sustainably mobilize even with coercion. Every fresh wave of meat just accelerates the math. Z-bloggers and Kremlin mouthpieces quietly admit it: more bodies do not change the trajectory, they only increase the corpse count charged to Moscow's account. This is not speculation. It is the observable trend on the battlefield. Ukrainian long-range strike capacity is growing month by month. By the end of 2026 those capabilities will be two to five times stronger. Operational-level logistics will burn, Crimea will be isolated, and the occupiers' rear areas will keep exploding on a daily schedule. Moscow has no path to victory left, only the ability to prolong the slaughter and terrorize civilians while it still can. The useful idiots in the West who keep whispering about "negotiations" or "frozen conflicts" are either ignorant or actively laundering Kremlin talking points. Putin cannot stop this war even if he wanted to. Demobilizing a million traumatized conscripts and sending them home to ask what the hell they were sacrificed for is political suicide for a regime that rules by fear and imperial myth. The only off-ramp is complete military defeat on the battlefield. Everything else is theater. Europe should stop treating Ukraine as a charity case and start seeing it for what it is: the only force currently capable of grinding down the imperial threat so the rest of the continent does not have to. Every drone, every shell, every sanctioned barrel of oil is cheaper than stationing your own troops on the eastern flank after Moscow finishes digesting its neighbor. Pavel is right that pressure must continue. The only correction is that two months was always optimistic. The real countdown is measured in Russian corpses and Ukrainian resolve, and that clock is ticking faster than the Kremlin can reload.show more

@choucroute_67 Absolutely yes, Pavel is stating the obvious. But his two months are inaccurate. You would imagine that Russia would take double that time to "recruit" and train/equip these men. Suddenly you are into the depths of winter. That is only bad for Putin and Russia.

@choucroute_67 There are countless documented cases when conscripts get sent to the front in 7 to 14 days. Considering that in moscowia they canceled the mandatory medical check, Im sure this will become not a bug, but a feature.

@choucroute_67 That's all true as well. But that in general is when the Russian man signs a contract and they throw him on a bus to the front. This will have plenty of many more stumbling blocks. If they send out 500,000 notices, I imagine that a lot of these men won't turn up.

@choucroute_67 Primorye conscripts get coerced into contracts yet moscovia scraped just 37900 in Q2 after recruitment plummeted by a third. Scale to 500k notices and the regime slams into mass evasion.

@choucroute_67 Ya exactly. I keep saying that these men know that they are going to die. There will be mass evasion. So that equates to mass chaos in Russia. Look how bad it went in 2022, this will be exponentially way worse.

It's obvious that putin and his gang never read "The Mythical Man-Month" by Fred Brooks " – " adding more manpower to a late project only makes it later." The US learned this in Korea, Vietnam and Afghanistan.

"Moscow is bleeding men faster than it can recruit them" БАБЫ ЕЩЁ НЕ НАРОЖАЮТ

They will mobilize just in time to get stuck in the mud, starve, then freeze, and die.

Europe and america can not sleep walk into a russian full mobilisation. russian needs to be dismembered ASAP. sadly, with the orange headed fuck faced putin scrotum licking trump in power in amerika, with insipid spinelss GOP, they will keep enabling russia

Putin’s only slim road to victory is cutting it off from European support as they have in the US. That’s why so much of their effort & resource supports far-right parties & their politics; facilitating their election. And why these parties & their regimes actively oppose Ukraine,

@calxandr Deep strikes on all Russian oil refineries. Collapse the Russian economy. Force the oligarchs to throw Putin from a window.

Great man. I wish the whole of Europe was like him.

I tend to agree about a post-election full mobilization. However, it will do less than Putin expects. Russia cannot support that many extra troops. Logistics are a challenge for Russia already, let alone with an army that is 2X bigger. He needs more drones, not men.

For every truck loaded with fresh orc meat that he brings to the front, we will bring a truck of drones

Putin is in a timing bind: He can't wait until post-election to surge his hapless army - it will be far too late to reap any benefit prior to a dire winter.

Its too late even if it happened today

Yes, I agree.

100% correct

#OSINT #Ukrayna #Rusya Çok güzel tespitler ve bilgiler. Peki bu bize ne anlatıyor? Ekranlarda ve buralarda gördüğünüz müneccimlerin aksine slogandan ve Amerikan emperyalizmi karşıtlığı ideolojik papağanlıktan uzak objektif olarak baktığımızda savaşın gidişatına dair şunu göreceğiz: (1) Seçimden önce Putin mobilizasyona gidemeyecek. Moskova ve St.Petersburg elitleri etnik Ruslar şu an bile rahatsız. Buna göre de en erken toplu saldırı ancak kışı bulur, o da iklim ne kadar el verirse. Çünkü mobilizasyona başladıktan sonra bir de eğitim safhası var, asker toplama işinin üstüne eğitim süresini eklemek zorundalar. Ama emperyalist Rusya’nın barbarlığı kendi insanına dahi acımadığı için (nasıl olsa etnik Rus da fazla yok orduda) bir aylık hızlandırılmış eğitimle de sonbahar sonunda atağa geçmeye kalkabilir. Ama bu da Rusya’nın çok acılarla yaşayacağı daha büyük bir yenilgiyi getirme potansiyeli taşır. (2) Aradaki zamanda Ukrayna kaynak ve lojistiğe yönelik saldırılarını daha da verimli ve etkin hale getirirse Rusya Kırım’da çok ciddi zorlanır. Ukrayna Kırım’ı alır demiyorum. Çünkü bildiğimiz bir mobilizasyon yok. Kırım’ın alınması için ekstradan insan gücüne ihtiyaç var. A, olur da, Rus sivillerin Kırım’ı tamamen terk etmesi ve Kerç’in de tamamen yıkılması sonrasında ortaçağ usulü kuşatma mantığı ile Ukrayna Kırım’ı kontrol altında tutabilir. (3) Rusya’nın seçim sonrası mobilizasyonuna karşılık Ukrayna yazın tam kapasite hazırlanırsa, yani sadece inaan kaynağı olarak değil, uzun menzilli yaptırım için gereken dron ve güdümlü mermi stoğu, yoğun ateşi karşılayacak top mermisi stoğu, Rusya’nın petrol altyapısının ve lojistiğinin çok büyük bir yüzde ile işlevsiz hale getirilmesi vb. gibi hazırlıklar tamamlanırsa ve Batı’nın maddi desteği yanında meşruiyet desteği devam ederse savaş 2027 içinde Ukrayna lehine bitebilir. Nükleer falan diyecekler de gitsin kumda oynasın, zibilyon defa anlattık, Rusya nükleer silah falan kullanamaz. O güven özveri tecrübe Rusya’da yok. Deli teröristler haricinde kimsede yok.

Impecable tu punto de vista. Creo que Occidente se ha dado cuenta bien clarito...sólo que siempre fueron AVAROS, MEZQUINOS, CONFUSOS Y NADA VALIENTES. Si no, dónde los Taurus están....? Va mutando la cosa pero los vicios no se pierden de la noche a la mañana.

Understanding appears, but there is no will to fight and an irrational fear of victory. We need to keep working on this.

Former communist Europe holds such contrasts. The exceptionally great leaders and the exceptionally big idiots.

Unless he simply declares martial law and cancels elections. Quite soon he will have nothing to lose, meaning he may no longer care about maintaining political legitimacy.

Ich hoffe es eskaliert in Russland bis dahin

@PhillipsPOBrien Excellent summary of the situation. Very well done. Thank you.

In case anyone is interested, here is the whole interview (last 15 minutes roughly).

@Biz_Ukraine_Mag Aber auch mit einer Mobilmachung wird Russland nicht gewinnen und Putin letztlich gestürzt werden. Hoffen wir mal, dass keine Atomwaffen eingesetzt werden!

Absolutely correct

History repeatedly shows that to underestimate Russia always ends in disaster. We should always be wary of those who speculate that victory is at hand when it comes to defeating Russia. And even if victory does come, a shattered and broken Russia will end in catastrophe with endless territorial and resource wars including the inevitable rise of radical jihadism who will have a goldmine access to Russian military assets in once former Russian states with China making long range incursions into the Eastern Russia borderlands to ‘protect’ their borders from the chaos of a Russian breakup. ‘Be careful for what you wish for’ couldn’t be more aptly ascribed to for those who advocate for the complete destruction and collapse of Russia. I fear the fall of Russia would ultimately lead to an already failing Western Europe whose demographics have been drastically altered by mass immigration.

The USSR collapsed and nothing like that happened. Russia will lose and collapse and it will only get better for everyone

💯 Putin cannot stop this. It would his and his regimes death warrants. He will keep this going as long as possible. Its how he survives.

I definitively want Ukraine to succeed, but what worries me is that not only Russia has obviously recruitment issues

Youre right that Ukraine must succeed. The difference is Kyiv scales robotics and drone logistics to offset its manpower limits while moscovias recruitment keeps dropping with no equivalent fix in sight.

@nekomercury One question…if gas supplies are destroyed…how are they going to mobilize?

@nekomercury They wont. Diesel shortages already spark brawls at stations from Penza outward and leave harvests at three percent by July against nine last year. Fresh mobilization notices mean nothing when the trucks sit idle and the new bodies never reach any assembly point.

@nekomercury Exactly!

Ukraine is doing the job millions of American servicemen & women did rotating through deployment in Europe over seven decades, costing many trillions. Our only purpose was keeping Russia from invading Europe. Ukraine is the only credible effective force doing that now. #Ukraine #SlavaUkraïni

💯

Russian and EU citizens must understand Putin is just delaying the draft until after Russia’s elections. Meanwhile Ukraine's strike capabilities are growing and making Russia’s position even worse. EU's support of Ukraine is strategic self‑defense, not charity.

気球とドローンで、ウクライナが、モスクワ上空を監視、パトロールです。ウクライナに、ミサイルや、ドローンなどを、発射したら、30秒以内に爆撃する事を、ロシアに、見せる必要があります。モスクワ上空で、気球とドローンで、ウクライナが、パトロールすると良いです。2026年7月12日へ！チェコへ！

Condivido 👍👍👍

Lots of fighting age Russians in Thailand. So many arriving every week.

@PhillipsPOBrien By the time Putin calls that mobilization he may not have enough fuel to carry it out.

Sandbagging Ukraine only prolongs putin’s fall and suffering