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Phong Le, CEO of Strategy, explains that they would eventually sell Bitcoin instead of $MSTR to fund the dividends on the preferred shares if the mNAV trades below 1x and raising additional capital is difficult because it would be better for the BTC yield.

Tristan – Blocktrainer.de 🧡⚡️

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129,247 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

🚀WHAT PRICE WILL MSTR BE AT $1 MILLION BITCOIN?🚀 I handicapped the absolute hell out of this model. Bitcoin rises from $65,993 to $1,000,000 over 8 full years. The entire STR preferred stack remains at a 12% dividend rate for all 96 months. The rate never declines. MSTR common stock is issued to fund every dollar of dividends, so shareholders absorb the dilution. No additional debt is added. No MSTR is sold at a premium to acquire Bitcoin... EVER. mNAV is only permitted to rise modestly as STRC scales. Strategy has already raised approximately $16.4 billion in 2026 through July 19, a roughly $29.9 billion annualized pace. Yet these scenarios allow only $0 to $6 billion of annual STRC issuance: $0/month - no STRC ever issued | 1.023× mNAV | $2,100 MSTR | 21.08× return | 1.39× Bitcoin’s multiple (+39%) $100M/month | $1.2B/year, 4% of current pace | 1.10× mNAV | $2,292 MSTR | 23.01× | 1.52× Bitcoin (+52%) $200M/month | $2.4B/year, 8% of pace | 1.20× mNAV | $2,540 MSTR | 25.50× | 1.68× Bitcoin (+68%) $300M/month | $3.6B/year, 12% of pace | 1.30× mNAV | $2,796 MSTR | 28.07× | 1.85× Bitcoin (+85%) $400M/month | $4.8B/year, 16% of pace | 1.40× mNAV | $3,060 MSTR | 30.73× | 2.03× Bitcoin (+103%) $500M/month | $6B/year, 20% of pace | 1.50× mNAV | $3,333 MSTR | 33.47× | 2.21× Bitcoin (+121%) Bitcoin itself returns 15.15×. The most important result is the first one. With zero new STRC issuance and absolutely zero mNAV expansion, MSTR still reaches approximately $2,100 and outperforms Bitcoin. Stock Multiple = BTC Multiple × CEBE Sats/Share Multiple × CEBE mNAV Multiple 15.15× BTC appreciation × 1.39× CEBE sats/share accretion × 1.00× mNAV change = 21.08× MSTR. The amplification is already embedded in the balance sheet. The market does not need to award MSTR a higher valuation multiple for it to work. Even in the $500M monthly STRC scenario, Strategy finishes with only 987,098 Bitcoin. Yes, the $3,333 model example includes a scenario where they fail to reach 1 million BTC in the next 8 years. If Bitcoin goes up... the machine works:

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Adam Livingston

46,212 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🚨 RUMORS: SOMETHING EXTREMELY BAD IS COMING!! Michael Saylor’s Strategy may now sell up to $5 BILLION worth of Bitcoin. That equals 73,365 BTC. This is NOT confirmed yet. But the timing is insane. When it happened in 2022, $BTC dumped 30%+. Now the same setup is forming again. Strategy has: → $2.55B in cash reserves → Only 17 months of dividend and interest coverage → 847,000 BTC → Around $13B in unrealized losses → MSTR down almost 30% in one week And we have seen a similar setup before. In 2022, Strategy sold 704 BTC. Bitcoin then continued dumping HARD. Now rumors claim Strategy may be able to sell up to $5B worth of Bitcoin in 2026. The same setup is forming again. The board can now approve BTC sales to refill reserves, pay dividends, and fund buybacks. They call it flexibility. I call it a pressure valve. Strategy controls 2.8% of all Bitcoin. Selling just 1% = 8,470 BTC. 5% = 42,350 BTC. A $5B sale = 73,365 BTC. Then the loop begins: MSTR dumps → stock dumps harder → raising capital gets harder → more pressure to sell BTC. That is the black swan. Turn notifications on. I’ll post the exact moment I start loading spot.

🚨 RUMORS: SOMETHING EXTREMELY BAD IS COMING!! Michael Saylor’s Strategy may now sell up to $5 BILLION worth of Bitcoin. That equals 73,365 BTC. This is NOT confirmed yet. But the timing is insane. When it happened in 2022, $BTC dumped 30%+. Now the same setup is forming again. Strategy has: → $2.55B in cash reserves → Only 17 months of dividend and interest coverage → 847,000 BTC → Around $13B in unrealized losses → MSTR down almost 30% in one week And we have seen a similar setup before. In 2022, Strategy sold 704 BTC. Bitcoin then continued dumping HARD. Now rumors claim Strategy may be able to sell up to $5B worth of Bitcoin in 2026. The same setup is forming again. The board can now approve BTC sales to refill reserves, pay dividends, and fund buybacks. They call it flexibility. I call it a pressure valve. Strategy controls 2.8% of all Bitcoin. Selling just 1% = 8,470 BTC. 5% = 42,350 BTC. A $5B sale = 73,365 BTC. Then the loop begins: MSTR dumps → stock dumps harder → raising capital gets harder → more pressure to sell BTC. That is the black swan. Turn notifications on. I’ll post the exact moment I start loading spot.

Wimar.X

114,386 Aufrufe • vor 25 Tagen

Michael Saylor Explains Why He May Sell Bitcoin Strategy founder Michael Saylor Michael Saylor said in a May 9 interview with Bonnie Blockchain that if the company needs to sell a small amount of Bitcoin, it would be to realize capital gains and pay STRC credit dividends. He compared the model to real estate development: raising capital through credit instruments, buying an asset, and later monetizing it through a sale or refinancing after it appreciates. Responding to Peter Schiff's "Ponzi scheme" criticism, Saylor said the more accurate principle is to "never be a net seller of Bitcoin." At this stage, even if Strategy sells 1 Bitcoin, it would buy 10 to 20 at the same time.

Michael Saylor Explains Why He May Sell Bitcoin Strategy founder Michael Saylor Michael Saylor said in a May 9 interview with Bonnie Blockchain that if the company needs to sell a small amount of Bitcoin, it would be to realize capital gains and pay STRC credit dividends. He compared the model to real estate development: raising capital through credit instruments, buying an asset, and later monetizing it through a sale or refinancing after it appreciates. Responding to Peter Schiff's "Ponzi scheme" criticism, Saylor said the more accurate principle is to "never be a net seller of Bitcoin." At this stage, even if Strategy sells 1 Bitcoin, it would buy 10 to 20 at the same time.

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12,629 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

Strategy CEO: Bitcoin Accumulation to Resume This Year According to FOX Business, Strategy CEO Phong Le Phong Le stated that the company plans to resume accumulating Bitcoin later this year, despite recent sales of portions of its holdings that drew market scrutiny. Le noted that Strategy has purchased around 175,000 Bitcoin since the beginning of the year while selling roughly 7,000 BTC, making its buying volume about 25 times greater than its sales. He emphasized that proceeds from recent sales were used to support preferred stock dividends, share repurchases, and US dollar reserves, and the company will return to buying more Bitcoin throughout the course of the year.

Strategy CEO: Bitcoin Accumulation to Resume This Year According to FOX Business, Strategy CEO Phong Le Phong Le stated that the company plans to resume accumulating Bitcoin later this year, despite recent sales of portions of its holdings that drew market scrutiny. Le noted that Strategy has purchased around 175,000 Bitcoin since the beginning of the year while selling roughly 7,000 BTC, making its buying volume about 25 times greater than its sales. He emphasized that proceeds from recent sales were used to support preferred stock dividends, share repurchases, and US dollar reserves, and the company will return to buying more Bitcoin throughout the course of the year.

Wu Blockchain

37,617 Aufrufe • vor 14 Tagen

Michael Saylor went this year from "Never sell Bitcoin" to selling if mNAV drops below 1 just imagine how much fear in this market now when even CEO of Strategy says they WOULD SELL Bitcoin

Michael Saylor went this year from "Never sell Bitcoin" to selling if mNAV drops below 1 just imagine how much fear in this market now when even CEO of Strategy says they WOULD SELL Bitcoin

Leshka.eth ⛩

130,405 Aufrufe • vor 8 Monaten

Selling $MSTR to fund the dividends of $STRC, wich is exactly what they do, is only a footnote in Coffeezilla‘s video. 😅 And the cash reserve doesn‘t need to run out, if Strategy sustains it by issuing common shares to keep it at 2-3 years of dividends.

Selling $MSTR to fund the dividends of $STRC, wich is exactly what they do, is only a footnote in Coffeezilla‘s video. 😅 And the cash reserve doesn‘t need to run out, if Strategy sustains it by issuing common shares to keep it at 2-3 years of dividends.

Tristan – Blocktrainer.de 🧡⚡️

12,374 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

Strategy can never sell its Bitcoin, so the $55 billion is worth nothing, so the dividends fail, so the credit is zero, so the equity is zero. Michael Saylor walked through that argument on Diary of a CEO and then took it apart. His math on the show: Bitcoin trades about $20 billion a day, and meeting all of Strategy's obligations would be 0.01% of that market. Then Strategy sold some anyway. "We sold some Bitcoin a few weeks ago because there was a narrative that we could never sell." "No one believed us. If you want people to believe that you can do a thing, you have to do the thing." His close: "We're commercializing the market in digital credit." $MSTR bitcoin:native

Strategy can never sell its Bitcoin, so the $55 billion is worth nothing, so the dividends fail, so the credit is zero, so the equity is zero. Michael Saylor walked through that argument on Diary of a CEO and then took it apart. His math on the show: Bitcoin trades about $20 billion a day, and meeting all of Strategy's obligations would be 0.01% of that market. Then Strategy sold some anyway. "We sold some Bitcoin a few weeks ago because there was a narrative that we could never sell." "No one believed us. If you want people to believe that you can do a thing, you have to do the thing." His close: "We're commercializing the market in digital credit." $MSTR bitcoin:native

True North

37,014 Aufrufe • vor 21 Tagen

Strategy sold 3,588 BTC last week. That's 112x more than the 32 BTC they sold a few weeks ago (which freaked out the market). Here's what's happening and why they are doing this... 1. Last week = Strategy sold Last week, Strategy sold 3,588 BTC and used all of the proceeds ($216m) to fund dividend payments on their suite of preferred equities. Q2 dividend payments for STRF, STRK, STRD, and STRE... and June dividends for STRC. Notably, BTC price opened last week at $59.5k. Strategy sold 3,588 BTC over the course of the week, yet BTC price went up to $63.5k. 2. The bigger picture = Strategy is NET buying Strategy bought 85,296 BTC in Q2. Their combined selling for Q2 was 3,620 BTC (32 + 3,588). In other words, they bought 22.5x more BTC in Q2 than they sold. (For 2026 YTD numbers, Strategy has bought ~175k BTC and sold 3.6k BTC. That's a 48x ratio.) 3. The message in advance Weeks ago, Saylor explained what they are doing, in an interview with Michaël van de Poppe (see clip) "On occasion, we'll buy 20 Bitcoin & we'll sell 1 Bitcoin... Then the credit investors will give us enough to buy 20 more Bitcoin." Saylor further explained the strategic rationale of selling Bitcoin... "Our credit investors expect that we're going to support the credit dividend and pay it (and our asset is BTC)... 'will you sell some Bitcoin to pay us the money?' They expect me to say yes, because if I'm not going to pay the dividend, they're not going to buy the credit & the credit agency won't rate the credit." 4. What Strategy is doing Strategy is showing the market that they can and will sell BTC. They are doing this to gain access to more credit market capital... so that they can buy much more BTC. Saylor has recently asserted that it's important to "buy more Bitcoin than you sell." This is that in action. In Q2, they bought 85k BTC. They then used 3.5k BTC to fund the dividends on the Digital Credit that enabled them to buy 85k BTC. They bought 22.5 and sold 1. 5. What to expect next Saylor said they will "inoculate the market" by selling a little BTC. This is the second dose of inoculation. They will keep doing it until the market expects it and no longer reacts to it. They are not dumping their BTC treasury strategy for dollars. That is the click-bait headline for the uninformed. What they are telling you is that they plan to sell 1 BTC so they can buy 20 BTC. Over and over.

Strategy sold 3,588 BTC last week. That's 112x more than the 32 BTC they sold a few weeks ago (which freaked out the market). Here's what's happening and why they are doing this... 1. Last week = Strategy sold Last week, Strategy sold 3,588 BTC and used all of the proceeds ($216m) to fund dividend payments on their suite of preferred equities. Q2 dividend payments for STRF, STRK, STRD, and STRE... and June dividends for STRC. Notably, BTC price opened last week at $59.5k. Strategy sold 3,588 BTC over the course of the week, yet BTC price went up to $63.5k. 2. The bigger picture = Strategy is NET buying Strategy bought 85,296 BTC in Q2. Their combined selling for Q2 was 3,620 BTC (32 + 3,588). In other words, they bought 22.5x more BTC in Q2 than they sold. (For 2026 YTD numbers, Strategy has bought ~175k BTC and sold 3.6k BTC. That's a 48x ratio.) 3. The message in advance Weeks ago, Saylor explained what they are doing, in an interview with Michaël van de Poppe (see clip) "On occasion, we'll buy 20 Bitcoin & we'll sell 1 Bitcoin... Then the credit investors will give us enough to buy 20 more Bitcoin." Saylor further explained the strategic rationale of selling Bitcoin... "Our credit investors expect that we're going to support the credit dividend and pay it (and our asset is BTC)... 'will you sell some Bitcoin to pay us the money?' They expect me to say yes, because if I'm not going to pay the dividend, they're not going to buy the credit & the credit agency won't rate the credit." 4. What Strategy is doing Strategy is showing the market that they can and will sell BTC. They are doing this to gain access to more credit market capital... so that they can buy much more BTC. Saylor has recently asserted that it's important to "buy more Bitcoin than you sell." This is that in action. In Q2, they bought 85k BTC. They then used 3.5k BTC to fund the dividends on the Digital Credit that enabled them to buy 85k BTC. They bought 22.5 and sold 1. 5. What to expect next Saylor said they will "inoculate the market" by selling a little BTC. This is the second dose of inoculation. They will keep doing it until the market expects it and no longer reacts to it. They are not dumping their BTC treasury strategy for dollars. That is the click-bait headline for the uninformed. What they are telling you is that they plan to sell 1 BTC so they can buy 20 BTC. Over and over.

Jesse Myers

170,379 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

STRATEGY CEO EXPLAINS WHY ALL THE FUD AGAINST MSTR AND STRC IS TOTALLY OVERBLOWN WE CAN RAISE CAPITAL TO BUY MORE #BITCOIN EVEN WHEN STRC IS "BELOW PAR" "WE CAN ISSUE EQUITY TO PAY OUR DIVIDENDS AND RAISE BILLIONS A DAY" "MSTR IS THE MOST LIQUID STOCK IN THE WORLD WHEN COMPARED TO OUR MARKET CAPT" MORE MASSIVE BTC BUYS ARE COMING 🔥

STRATEGY CEO EXPLAINS WHY ALL THE FUD AGAINST MSTR AND STRC IS TOTALLY OVERBLOWN WE CAN RAISE CAPITAL TO BUY MORE #BITCOIN EVEN WHEN STRC IS "BELOW PAR" "WE CAN ISSUE EQUITY TO PAY OUR DIVIDENDS AND RAISE BILLIONS A DAY" "MSTR IS THE MOST LIQUID STOCK IN THE WORLD WHEN COMPARED TO OUR MARKET CAPT" MORE MASSIVE BTC BUYS ARE COMING 🔥

The Bitcoin Historian

77,700 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

Michael Saylor & Phong Le just addressed the biggest questions investors are asking: - Will Strategy sell Bitcoin soon? - Why move to semi-monthly dividends with $STRC (is daily next?) - What’s the endgame with $MSTR & Digital Credit Full raw Q&A with Michael Saylor & Phong Le — unfiltered. Share your thoughts on their responses below. Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 03:22 Will Strategy Sell Bitcoin? 06:05 STRC ROC Tax Question 07:06 Saylor on Strive & $SATA 13:02 Future of STRC Dividends 16:41 Will Strategy Slow Buying Btc? 19:00 The $100 Peg 21:57 STRC, DeFi & Fragility 27:17 Why Is Bitcoin Stuck? 30:00 Monthly $STRK, $STRD, $STRF Dividends 31:38 Retiring Preferred Stock 35:06 Fixed 10% Yield 35:52 Scaling STRC 39:44 Winning Over Skeptics 42:58 Understanding MNAV Calculations 45:03 “Rip the Wings Off Shorts” 52:11 Ultimate STRC Product 59:52 Strategy at $10M Bitcoin 1:00:55 BTC Yield Metric 1:01:45 Custody & Proof of Reserves 1:03:58 Strategy as Investor Gateway 1:06:06 Teaching the Next Generation 1:08:12 Bitcoin’s Place in History

Michael Saylor & Phong Le just addressed the biggest questions investors are asking: - Will Strategy sell Bitcoin soon? - Why move to semi-monthly dividends with $STRC (is daily next?) - What’s the endgame with $MSTR & Digital Credit Full raw Q&A with Michael Saylor & Phong Le — unfiltered. Share your thoughts on their responses below. Timestamps: 00:00 Introduction 03:22 Will Strategy Sell Bitcoin? 06:05 STRC ROC Tax Question 07:06 Saylor on Strive & $SATA 13:02 Future of STRC Dividends 16:41 Will Strategy Slow Buying Btc? 19:00 The $100 Peg 21:57 STRC, DeFi & Fragility 27:17 Why Is Bitcoin Stuck? 30:00 Monthly $STRK, $STRD, $STRF Dividends 31:38 Retiring Preferred Stock 35:06 Fixed 10% Yield 35:52 Scaling STRC 39:44 Winning Over Skeptics 42:58 Understanding MNAV Calculations 45:03 “Rip the Wings Off Shorts” 52:11 Ultimate STRC Product 59:52 Strategy at $10M Bitcoin 1:00:55 BTC Yield Metric 1:01:45 Custody & Proof of Reserves 1:03:58 Strategy as Investor Gateway 1:06:06 Teaching the Next Generation 1:08:12 Bitcoin’s Place in History

Natalie Brunell ⚡️

254,838 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

🚨 WARNING: SOMETHING EXTREMELY BAD IS HAPPENING! This is NOT a rumor anymore. Strategy has officially sold 3,588 BTC worth around $216 MILLION. The sale reduced its total holdings to 843,775 BTC. And the timing is insane. The last major sale happened in 2022. Strategy sold 704 BTC. Bitcoin then continued dumping HARD. Now Strategy has sold more than 5x that amount. Strategy currently has: → 843,775 BTC → $2.55B in cash reserves → Around 17 months of dividend and interest coverage → Massive unrealized losses → MSTR under heavy pressure The BTC was sold to refill cash reserves and fund dividend payments. This changes everything. For years, Saylor told everyone to NEVER sell Bitcoin. Now Strategy is selling BTC to protect its balance sheet. And once the selling starts, the pressure loop becomes REAL: MSTR dumps → raising capital gets harder → cash reserves fall → more pressure to sell BTC. Strategy still controls around 2.8% of all Bitcoin. Selling just 1% of its remaining holdings would mean: → 8,438 BTC Selling 5% would mean: → 42,189 BTC That is the REAL black swan. The biggest corporate Bitcoin holder is no longer only buying. It is now officially selling. Turn notifications on. I’ll post the exact moment I start loading spot.

🚨 WARNING: SOMETHING EXTREMELY BAD IS HAPPENING! This is NOT a rumor anymore. Strategy has officially sold 3,588 BTC worth around $216 MILLION. The sale reduced its total holdings to 843,775 BTC. And the timing is insane. The last major sale happened in 2022. Strategy sold 704 BTC. Bitcoin then continued dumping HARD. Now Strategy has sold more than 5x that amount. Strategy currently has: → 843,775 BTC → $2.55B in cash reserves → Around 17 months of dividend and interest coverage → Massive unrealized losses → MSTR under heavy pressure The BTC was sold to refill cash reserves and fund dividend payments. This changes everything. For years, Saylor told everyone to NEVER sell Bitcoin. Now Strategy is selling BTC to protect its balance sheet. And once the selling starts, the pressure loop becomes REAL: MSTR dumps → raising capital gets harder → cash reserves fall → more pressure to sell BTC. Strategy still controls around 2.8% of all Bitcoin. Selling just 1% of its remaining holdings would mean: → 8,438 BTC Selling 5% would mean: → 42,189 BTC That is the REAL black swan. The biggest corporate Bitcoin holder is no longer only buying. It is now officially selling. Turn notifications on. I’ll post the exact moment I start loading spot.

Wimar.X

137,475 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

“If you're a short seller and your thesis is the company's got to sell equity in order to fund the dividends, I would like nothing better than to rip your wings off.” - Michael Saylor Game on. $MSTR $STRC

“If you're a short seller and your thesis is the company's got to sell equity in order to fund the dividends, I would like nothing better than to rip your wings off.” - Michael Saylor Game on. $MSTR $STRC

J64 - SignalStation.app

110,329 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

Strategy $MSTR CEO Phong Le said that "In 10 years, #Bitcoin will become the digital reserve asset of the world. It'll be as important as the U.S. dollar." "Governments around the world will own BTC, and we'll be the largest holder of BTC in the world." "That's the world I see in 10 years." 🔥🙌

Strategy $MSTR CEO Phong Le said that "In 10 years, #Bitcoin will become the digital reserve asset of the world. It'll be as important as the U.S. dollar." "Governments around the world will own BTC, and we'll be the largest holder of BTC in the world." "That's the world I see in 10 years." 🔥🙌

BitcoinTreasuries.NET

27,448 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Making Sense Of Strategy What is happening with $MSTR? If you’ve been following me on X for any meaningful length of time, you will know that I have been attempting to calibrate people’s expectations of the stock's performance for the best part of 2025. Here I have synthesised all of my thoughts and distilled them into a single video. If you prefer YouTube, you can watch it here: If you prefer written format, continue reading. The first thing we need to understand is what Strategy is and why people invest in it. Strategy At the highest level, Strategy is leveraged Bitcoin. That’s it. Strategy leverages debt to acquire more Bitcoin. Therefore, the main reason you invest in Strategy is because you want to outperform Bitcoin. The only thing better than Bitcoin is more Bitcoin. The second thing we need to understand is mNAV. mNAV Generally speaking for a pure-play Bitcoin Treasury Company like Strategy, mNAV is a reflection of the market's expectation of future Bitcoin Yield. Bitcoin Yield comes with diminishing returns because each additional Bitcoin purchase contributes less to Bitcoin Per Share. Thus, the larger your Bitcoin stack, the harder it becomes to generate Bitcoin Yield and by extension the harder it becomes to outperform Bitcoin. This is why on a Bitcoin Standard, over a long enough time horizon, mNAV trends towards 1 since the maximum amount of Bitcoin you can own is 21M. With all this in mind, why is Strategy trading where it is and why is it trading at such a low mNAV? There are a few reasons. 1. Strategy Is A Different Company In 2025 Firstly, Strategy is a totally different company in 2025 to the one it was in 2020. For context, believe it or not, the company only introduced Bitcoin Yield and Bitcoin Per Share in the July 2024 Q2 Earnings Call and so it was only after that that they began optimising for those metrics. In my view, that is also when Michael Saylor truly started to understand the opportunity that was in front of him, which is why in October 2024 we saw Strategy announce the 21/21 plan which became the catalyst for the parabolic run we saw in November 2024 where $MSTR went on to briefly hit an all-time-high of around $550. Since people are comparing $MSTR this cycle to the $MSTR of last cycle when it briefly traded at an mNAV of over 8x, it is distorting their expectations. Again, Strategy is a totally different company today with a totally different set of dynamics. 2. New Industry Secondly, we need to recognise that the Bitcoin Treasury Company industry is entirely new which means that the market has been forced to learn and adapt in real-time. With Strategy being the first and by far the largest Bitcoin Treasury Company, it has gained a disproportionate amount of attention and as a result it has attracted a disproportionate amount of speculative capital along the way while everyone has been trying to figure out how to value it. Consequently, in my view, the move we saw in November 2024 was an over-correction to the upside — which by the way coincided with Bitcoin’s parabolic run following Donald Trump’s election win — and what we’re now seeing is an over-correction to the downside. 3. Bitcoin Yield Thirdly, as I mentioned at the beginning, Bitcoin Treasury Companies are currently valued based on how much Bitcoin Yield they are expected to generate in the future. At the time of recording, Strategy currently holds precisely 637,460 Bitcoin — that’s over 3% of the total Bitcoin supply — which means that it is much, much harder to generate meaningful Bitcoin Yield, which again is why we’re seeing the mNAV compress. However, there is a caveat here. There is another metric that Strategy have introduced which is Bitcoin $ Gain. Bitcoin $ Gain is defined as the $ value of newly acquired Bitcoin within any period. Strategy — and I don’t blame them — have been attempting to encourage the market to interpret Bitcoin $ Gain as “earnings” and to value the company based on how much earnings it is expected to generate in the future. For full disclosure, I personally dislike Bitcoin $ Gain as a valuation metric. I think framing it as “earnings” is misleading and disingenuous. I understand why it has been introduced because it speaks the language of Wall Street. However, traditional earnings are final. Bitcoin $ Gain is not because it is forever subject to the price of Bitcoin. Therefore, for Bitcoin $ Gain to be embraced by Wall Street, the market must collectively agree that Bitcoin is going up forever. I remain very sceptical of that happening — especially in the short-to-medium term. However, I am also not attached to my beliefs and so if Wall Street does decide to embrace Bitcoin $ Gain as its primary valuation metric, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 5-10x. If not, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 1-2x. If you’re not content with the latter being the worst case scenario, then the stock probably isn’t for you. 4. Preferred Products Fourthly, the Strategy thesis right now revolves entirely around the success of its preferred products. Remember, Michael Saylor wants Strategy to become the Amazon of the fixed income market. Thus, we’re not talking about a small innovation here — we are talking about completely transforming global finance. This means that the process of generating awareness and educating the market that will ultimately drive demand for these products is going to take years — not months — which is why you need to have a long time-horizon. Presently, the market is completely discounting the success of Strategy’s preferred products. What it’s not factoring in however is that the capital markets are desperate for yield right now. Thus, when — not if — but when, they eventually wake up to Bitcoin, how do you think they’re going to get that yield? Who is going to be the entity that is offering Bitcoin-backed credit instruments at scale? The answer is obviously Strategy, but again, this is a 5-to-10 year and beyond story. So with all that said, if you’re reading this right now, what should you do? Valuing Strategy There are 3 steps you need to take: 1. Firstly, you need to define your time horizon. In other words, how long do you intend on holding the stock for? 2. Secondly, you need to estimate either — depending on your preferred metric — how much Bitcoin Yield or how much Bitcoin $ Gain you expect Strategy to generate during that period and then calculate how much you expect $MSTR to outperform Bitcoin based on those values. 3. Thirdly, ask yourself whether you’d be satisfied with the level of outperformance you have calculated? In other words, is the trade-off worth it? Or would you be better off investing in either spot Bitcoin, an alternative Bitcoin Treasury Company or a Bitcoin ETF. If you’re satisfied with the level of outperformance that you’ve calculated, then $MSTR it probably a good choice of investment for you. If you're not satisfied, then $MSTR is probably a bad choice of investment for you. I personally believe that $MSTR will outperform Bitcoin by a minimum factor of 1-2x over the next 5/10 years and potentially much more if Bitcoin $ Gain becomes the primary metric by which it is valued, but again, I remain sceptical of that happening. Regardless, the best is yet to come.

Making Sense Of Strategy What is happening with $MSTR? If you’ve been following me on X for any meaningful length of time, you will know that I have been attempting to calibrate people’s expectations of the stock's performance for the best part of 2025. Here I have synthesised all of my thoughts and distilled them into a single video. If you prefer YouTube, you can watch it here: If you prefer written format, continue reading. The first thing we need to understand is what Strategy is and why people invest in it. Strategy At the highest level, Strategy is leveraged Bitcoin. That’s it. Strategy leverages debt to acquire more Bitcoin. Therefore, the main reason you invest in Strategy is because you want to outperform Bitcoin. The only thing better than Bitcoin is more Bitcoin. The second thing we need to understand is mNAV. mNAV Generally speaking for a pure-play Bitcoin Treasury Company like Strategy, mNAV is a reflection of the market's expectation of future Bitcoin Yield. Bitcoin Yield comes with diminishing returns because each additional Bitcoin purchase contributes less to Bitcoin Per Share. Thus, the larger your Bitcoin stack, the harder it becomes to generate Bitcoin Yield and by extension the harder it becomes to outperform Bitcoin. This is why on a Bitcoin Standard, over a long enough time horizon, mNAV trends towards 1 since the maximum amount of Bitcoin you can own is 21M. With all this in mind, why is Strategy trading where it is and why is it trading at such a low mNAV? There are a few reasons. 1. Strategy Is A Different Company In 2025 Firstly, Strategy is a totally different company in 2025 to the one it was in 2020. For context, believe it or not, the company only introduced Bitcoin Yield and Bitcoin Per Share in the July 2024 Q2 Earnings Call and so it was only after that that they began optimising for those metrics. In my view, that is also when Michael Saylor truly started to understand the opportunity that was in front of him, which is why in October 2024 we saw Strategy announce the 21/21 plan which became the catalyst for the parabolic run we saw in November 2024 where $MSTR went on to briefly hit an all-time-high of around $550. Since people are comparing $MSTR this cycle to the $MSTR of last cycle when it briefly traded at an mNAV of over 8x, it is distorting their expectations. Again, Strategy is a totally different company today with a totally different set of dynamics. 2. New Industry Secondly, we need to recognise that the Bitcoin Treasury Company industry is entirely new which means that the market has been forced to learn and adapt in real-time. With Strategy being the first and by far the largest Bitcoin Treasury Company, it has gained a disproportionate amount of attention and as a result it has attracted a disproportionate amount of speculative capital along the way while everyone has been trying to figure out how to value it. Consequently, in my view, the move we saw in November 2024 was an over-correction to the upside — which by the way coincided with Bitcoin’s parabolic run following Donald Trump’s election win — and what we’re now seeing is an over-correction to the downside. 3. Bitcoin Yield Thirdly, as I mentioned at the beginning, Bitcoin Treasury Companies are currently valued based on how much Bitcoin Yield they are expected to generate in the future. At the time of recording, Strategy currently holds precisely 637,460 Bitcoin — that’s over 3% of the total Bitcoin supply — which means that it is much, much harder to generate meaningful Bitcoin Yield, which again is why we’re seeing the mNAV compress. However, there is a caveat here. There is another metric that Strategy have introduced which is Bitcoin $ Gain. Bitcoin $ Gain is defined as the $ value of newly acquired Bitcoin within any period. Strategy — and I don’t blame them — have been attempting to encourage the market to interpret Bitcoin $ Gain as “earnings” and to value the company based on how much earnings it is expected to generate in the future. For full disclosure, I personally dislike Bitcoin $ Gain as a valuation metric. I think framing it as “earnings” is misleading and disingenuous. I understand why it has been introduced because it speaks the language of Wall Street. However, traditional earnings are final. Bitcoin $ Gain is not because it is forever subject to the price of Bitcoin. Therefore, for Bitcoin $ Gain to be embraced by Wall Street, the market must collectively agree that Bitcoin is going up forever. I remain very sceptical of that happening — especially in the short-to-medium term. However, I am also not attached to my beliefs and so if Wall Street does decide to embrace Bitcoin $ Gain as its primary valuation metric, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 5-10x. If not, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 1-2x. If you’re not content with the latter being the worst case scenario, then the stock probably isn’t for you. 4. Preferred Products Fourthly, the Strategy thesis right now revolves entirely around the success of its preferred products. Remember, Michael Saylor wants Strategy to become the Amazon of the fixed income market. Thus, we’re not talking about a small innovation here — we are talking about completely transforming global finance. This means that the process of generating awareness and educating the market that will ultimately drive demand for these products is going to take years — not months — which is why you need to have a long time-horizon. Presently, the market is completely discounting the success of Strategy’s preferred products. What it’s not factoring in however is that the capital markets are desperate for yield right now. Thus, when — not if — but when, they eventually wake up to Bitcoin, how do you think they’re going to get that yield? Who is going to be the entity that is offering Bitcoin-backed credit instruments at scale? The answer is obviously Strategy, but again, this is a 5-to-10 year and beyond story. So with all that said, if you’re reading this right now, what should you do? Valuing Strategy There are 3 steps you need to take: 1. Firstly, you need to define your time horizon. In other words, how long do you intend on holding the stock for? 2. Secondly, you need to estimate either — depending on your preferred metric — how much Bitcoin Yield or how much Bitcoin $ Gain you expect Strategy to generate during that period and then calculate how much you expect $MSTR to outperform Bitcoin based on those values. 3. Thirdly, ask yourself whether you’d be satisfied with the level of outperformance you have calculated? In other words, is the trade-off worth it? Or would you be better off investing in either spot Bitcoin, an alternative Bitcoin Treasury Company or a Bitcoin ETF. If you’re satisfied with the level of outperformance that you’ve calculated, then $MSTR it probably a good choice of investment for you. If you're not satisfied, then $MSTR is probably a bad choice of investment for you. I personally believe that $MSTR will outperform Bitcoin by a minimum factor of 1-2x over the next 5/10 years and potentially much more if Bitcoin $ Gain becomes the primary metric by which it is valued, but again, I remain sceptical of that happening. Regardless, the best is yet to come.

Chris Millas

36,835 Aufrufe • vor 11 Monaten