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Predicting pelvic recurrence in #BladderCancer: A five-factor risk score. Vidit Sharma Mayo Clinic Urology joins Ashish M. Kamat, MD, MBBS MD Anderson News discussing a new pelvic recurrence risk score developed at Mayo Clinic and validated in #Milan. 🔹 Derived from 1,200 cases 🔹 5-year recurrence: 2%–52% (C-index 0.73–0.75)...

12,798 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад •via X (Twitter)

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OncoAlert

34,462 просмотров • 9 месяцев назад

Next onto my conversation with Dr. Ashish Kamat Ashish M. Kamat, MD, MBBS and one of the country's leading bladder cancer experts to hear his clinical decision making process as to how he treats patients with BCG unresponsive high-grade papillary disease when no CIS disease is found. (I said the word 'found' since sometimes once high-grade papillary disease is identified, physicians don't bother to look for CIS since their decision making process for treatment is the same if high-grade papillary alone exists. Worse, only 6% of urologists have the blue-light cystoscopy scope that helps them find CIS disease). Dr. Kamat who participated in the initial guidelines discussion with regard to BCG unresponsive in 2016, gave me an insightful answer as to how he treats patients clinically with high-grade papillary alone. Please listen to his insightful answer, the editor of the seminal textbook entitled, "Bladder Cancer: A Practical Guide". He treats patients with high-grade papillary disease alone no differently than in patients with high-grade papillary and CIS disease. This was not surprising for me to hear since he and many others believe that CIS and papillary are the same disease! The next day I attended the FDA workshop in which his fellow colleagues concurred that CIS and papillary was the same disease and also said that they approached patients with BCG unresponsive high-grade papillary disease in the same way as he shared with me in this interview, taken the day before the FDA workshop. His fellow colleagues and experts at the workshop said that they "struggled" and were compelled to make decisions with no option but to prescribe "off-label" therapies for patients who they see (with papillary disease alone) by writing a prescription for already FDA approved therapies for papillary and CIS disease. So the consensus at this panel completely matched the panel of experts from comprehensive cancer centers across the nation who made up the NCCN and provided category 2A status for Anktiva + BCG for the treatment of BCG unresponsive papillary disease alone. Cancer is a war against time Disclaimer: Anktiva + BCG for the treatment of BCG unresponsive papillary disease is not approved and is awaiting review by the FDA as a supplemental BLA. For more details of ANKTIVA + BCG, please refer to our package insert and important safety information. ANKTIVA is approved by the FDA in combination with BCG for the treatment of adult patients with BCG-unresponsive NMIBC with carcinoma in-situ (CIS), with or without papillary tumors. Important Safety Information U.S. IMPORTANT SAFETY INFORMATION INDICATION AND USAGE: ANKTIVA® is an interleukin-15 (IL-15) receptor agonist indicated with Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG) for the treatment of adult patients with BCG-unresponsive non-muscle invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) with carcinoma in situ (CIS) with or without papillary tumors. WARNINGS AND PRECAUTIONS: Risk of Metastatic Bladder Cancer with Delayed Cystectomy. Delaying cystectomy can lead to the development of muscle-invasive or metastatic bladder cancer, which can be lethal. If patients with CIS do not have a complete response to treatment after a second induction course of ANKTIVA® with BCG, reconsider cystectomy. DOSAGE AND ADMINISTRATION: For Intravesical Use Only. Do not administer by subcutaneous or intravenous routes. Please see the complete Indication and Important Safety Information and Prescribing Information for ANKTIVA® at

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21,255 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

Dr. Suzanne Humphries delivers a compelling case on why the measles vaccine narrative isn’t as simple as it seems. Drawing from peer-reviewed literature and CDC data, she challenges the push for 95-99% vaccination rates to achieve herd immunity, arguing the vaccine has failed to eradicate measles and may be creating new vulnerabilities. In her presentation, Dr. Humphries dissects the 2015 California measles outbreak, often cited as proof of the need for near-universal vaccination. Of 110 cases, only 49 were unvaccinated, with 12 too young for the vaccine and 9 sick when it was due. Notably, 12% of cases were vaccinated, and one case was a vaccine strain, later removed from the count. Before the vaccine, measles primarily affected children aged 3-15, who gained lifelong immunity. Natural immunity from mothers protected babies under 2, the most vulnerable group. Post-vaccination, vaccinated mothers pass limited immunity—sometimes just 3 months—leaving infants exposed. Older adults, once protected by natural immunity and boosted by circulating virus, are now at risk. In California, 56% of cases were over 20, and 11 were infants under 1. Dr. Humphries argues the vaccine shifts vulnerability to the very groups least equipped to handle measles. Citing LeBaron’s peer-reviewed study, Dr. Humphries notes that 33% of people lack protective measles antibodies 20 years post-vaccination. This secondary failure means many adults, including those over 50, may need boosters—a sign the vaccine’s protection wanes over time. Dr. Humphries highlights primary vaccine failure (2-8% of twice-vaccinated people never respond) and secondary failure (waning immunity). She also points to vaccine escape mutants, like those in China, which evade the vaccine’s protection, a growing concern in the literature. Referencing a 1998 study by Damien, Dr. Humphries notes that 22-33% of twice-vaccinated high school students showed inadequate immunity during a measles epidemic, with secondary immune responses indicating viral replication and potential contagiousness. Russian studies cited by Dr. Humphries show hospitalized patients, fully vaccinated, lacking sufficient titers during epidemics. Even with high vaccination rates, herd immunity remains elusive, and outbreaks persist, prompting experts like Dr. Gregory Poland of the Mayo Clinic to call for a new vaccine. Dr. Humphries urges doctors and the public to look beyond the “unvaccinated” scapegoat and consider the vaccine’s limitations. With primary and secondary failures, waning immunity, and emerging mutants, the current approach may not deliver the promised protection. For more details, Dr. Humphries offers to share peer-reviewed sources and CDC data, encouraging a deeper dive into the complex reality of measles and vaccination. This is a call for critical thinking and honest discussion about public health strategies.

Camus

60,248 просмотров • 1 год назад

Oncologist Dr. William Makis: "The turbo cancers after the COVID vaccines do respond to the antiparasitics, and they respond very well... [And] why do these antiparasitics work?" Todd Callender: "Cancer's a parasite?" Makis: "That's one possibility." This clip of Dr. Makis (William Makis), a radiologist, oncologist, and cancer researcher, is taken from an interview with attorney Todd Callender posted to the VaxxCHOICE (VaxxCHOICE) Rumble channel on November 21, 2025. ---------------Partial transcription of clip---------------- Dr. Makis: "The turbo cancers after the COVID vaccines do respond to the antiparasitics and they respond very well. This is, you know, whether it's ivermectin, fenbendazole or mebendazole, these patients are responding. "Now this is very important because patients who've developed cancer after taking Covid vaccines, they don't respond usually to conventional treatments. That's one of the hallmarks of turbo cancer is they present at a very late stage. These are extremely rapidly growing tumors. They're coming in at stage four. And it's whether it's young women with breast cancer, women in their 20s, something we've never seen before, young women with, men and women with colon cancer in their 20s and 30s. "Again, we've never seen—" Callender: "Two- year-olds, I've heard of two- year-olds with colon cancer—" Dr. Makis: "—we've never seen this before. That's the incredible part. And they're not responding to conventional treatments. So, they're not responding to chemo, they're not responding to radiation therapy, immunotherapy, or if they do response, they have a very, very short response time or remission time. And then the cancer comes roaring back. "And in a lot of these tragic cases, the patient dies within six months. This is another one of the features of turbo cancer is the prognosis is extremely poor if you go the conventional route. So you need something else. Now when you're using antiparasitics, for cancer, the dose is higher than the dose you would use to treat parasites or to treat Covid. So I give just a rule of thumb for ivermectin, for example, it's about five times the dose that you would need for cancer, about 5 to 10 times the dose than if you were just treating parasites or viruses. "And to go into the— why does it work? Why do these antiparasitics work?" Callender: "Cancer's a parasite?" Dr. Makis: "Well, that's one possibility. But there's more to it than that because, out of the 400 papers that have been published, a lot of those researchers look at the mechanisms. They are trying to identify the mechanisms of how ivermectin is treating these cancers. "And you've got, for example, there was one study published a few years ago, Mexican researchers, again, you're not going to see this done in the United States, Mexico. Mexican researchers took 28 different cancer cell lines, applied ivermectin to them, and all of them responded. Now to various degrees, you had breast cancer and ovarian cancer actually responding the most to ivermectin. You had the most cancer cell killing when they were exposed to ivermectin. "But when they look at the mechanisms, they've identified a number of interesting things. For example, ivermectin shuts down and kills cancer stem cells. Now, this is important because cancer stem cells are the reason chemotherapy doesn't work. When you have stage four pancreatic cancer, stage four ovarian cancer, and you go to your oncologist, they will tell you, we will give you chemo, but we can't cure you. It's palliative chemo. It'll buy you an extra six months, an extra 12 months of life. "The reason why they say that is why the chemo is palliative, not curative. It's is because chemo cannot kill cancer stem cells, which are not rapidly dividing. Chemo will kill everything that's rapidly dividing, but cancer stem cells are not rapidly dividing. And so the chemo will kill the rapidly dividing tumor cells, and it'll leave the cancer stem cells alone, while the cancer stem cells will start rapidly dividing a year later, two years later, they're going to spread to other parts of the body. Suddenly you've got recurrence, you've got metastases. Ivermectin will shut down and kill cancer stem cells. "So imagine you, added to your chemo regimen, and now you've essentially turned what's palliative chemo or a palliative situation to potentially a curative situation. And I really do believe I've come to the point, having helped over 7,000 cancer patients in the last year, I've come to the point where I could confidently say that stage 4 pancreatic cancer is curable, stage 4 ovarian cancer is curable, stage 4 colon cancer, lung cancer. These cancers are curable. I think if you add repurposed drugs, you add antiparasitics, you can turn these into curable situations. "Now, of course, we have to prove that. We have to do the research, do the publications. But in the meantime, I say stage 4 cancer patients don't have 10 years to wait for mainstream oncology or mainstream medicine to catch up with what we're seeing already clinically, in practice."

Sense Receptor

96,616 просмотров • 7 месяцев назад

Very powerful testimony by dr. Sabine Hazan "Thank you, senator. It's an honor to be here. The microbiome, our microbes in our guts, is our immunity and tells the story and will tell the story of COVID nineteen. And this is why as a gastroenterologist, I stepped into the pandemic. Through my experience, I will show you how difficult it was to conduct research and publish when the research goes against the national public health narrative." "Interference and delay in research happened and affects all of us. In early twenty twenty, my research genetic sequencing laboratory was the first lab to document the entire sequence of the virus in the stools as opposed to the PCR which is just a little piece of the virus." "We discovered that the virus lingered in the stools for up to forty five days. It took six months to publish this publication at a time where everybody needed to know that it was in your stools. My lab also showed that COVID nineteen in the stools was killed by hydroxychloroquine and azithromycin." "But unfortunately, azithromycin and hydroxychloroquine killed the microbiome. So therefore, vitamin c, d, and zinc was added. Three protocols were submitted to the FDA from our findings. Three studies were also put into in full transparencies to help doctors more effectively treat COVID because I knew data that nobody knew. 04/02/2020, FDA gave us an exempt letter for doing a clinical trial." "In other words, we did not need to do a clinical trial on hydroxychloroquine, z pack, vitamin c, d, and zinc as treatment or hydroxychloroquine, vitamin c, d, and zinc as prophylaxis. April 4, somebody must have called the FDA and said, I got another letter saying, I'm sorry, doctor Hazan. Exemption is denied. You must do a full on clinical trial. Here's the letter." "System pressures delayed us, and we got a green light to start recruiting by May 2020. By then, the media created fear around hydroxychloroquine. It was impossible to recruit. This drug was safely given for years for arthritis and lupus with no problems. My clinical trials companies were also banned and censored from advertising on Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter." "Remember, I do clinical trials for a living and never as a clinical trial doctor have I not been able to advertise to recruit for a trial on social media. I kept collecting stools of patients and noticed that patients with severe COVID had a certain bacteria that was missing compared to people that were highly exposed to COVID but never got COVID. That bacteria is called bifidobacteria. Bifidobacteria is an important and key microbe for immunity. It represents your trillion dollar industry of probiotics." "In fact, when you turn the bottle and you see the ingredient, it says bifidobacteria. It is present in newborns. This is why your newborns did not get a problem from COVID at the beginning, and it is absent in old people. The process of aging is loss of bifidobacteria. We published this paper, the lost microbes of COVID nineteen." "It took eight months to publish. If you follow the bifidobacteria like I did, you will notice, and we did notice anyways, that vitamin c actually increases bifidobacteria. This is why vitamin c is important when you take when you take care of viruses and, you know, you've all experienced taking vitamin c for a cold." "Well, we published this data where we showed vitamin c, if we give it to patients before and after, it increased the bifidobacteria. Ivermectin was also an interesting drug because Ivermectin, we noticed, also increased the bifidobacteria within twenty four hours of taking it." "Why Ivermectin? If you look at what Ivermectin is, it is a fermented product of a bacteria that is similar to bifidobacteria. In fact, they're in the same continent of microbes. They live. They're like sisters, brothers in the microbiome." "So I published. I knew that ivermectin increased bifidobacteria, but I said, nah. I can't go out there and start publishing that. That's gonna be too controversial. So I published a hypothesis that maybe what I was observing on the frontline treating patients with COVID, noticing that their oxygen saturation was increasing from ivermectin, was basically maybe ivermectin increased bifidobacteria." "The hypothesis on ivermectin was the most read hypothesis in the pandemic and was retracted after eight months of being on. When we cannot make a hypothesis, this is not science. December twenty twenty, at the same time that I was treating patients with COVID, I began collecting stools of my colleagues that were at home and started going into the hospital. And I said, can I get your stools before and after you get vaccinated? Because to me, this new technology of vaccines, I wanted to see what it was doing on the microbiome." "I discovered that messenger RNA vaccines killed the bifidobacteria. I knew I would never be able to publish this because it goes against the narrative. So I submitted it to my college, the American College of Gastroenterology, and presented it in October 2022. This abstract won a research award at the American College of Gastro beating 6,000 abstracts. That's from academic centers like Harvard and Mayo Clinic and MD Anderson." "This abstract got the attention of 18,000 GI doctors who all of a sudden started realizing maybe killing bifidobacteria is why I got COVID after my vaccine to begin with. Worse than that, and another abstract we presented, was the persistent damage of bifidobacteria from the vaccine." "What is going on here that the vaccine continues to kill the bifidobacteria? At the same time, we presented a link between loss of bifidobacteria and Crohn's disease, loss of bifidobacteria in Lyme disease, and loss of bifidobacteria in invasive cancer. It is nearly impossible to publish data that goes against the national public health narrative." "If doctors cannot publish the data, they cannot find solution to fix the problems. So in conclusion, I will finish with showing this. This represents clinical trials that I've done for pharmaceutical companies prior to COVID. Amongst them are vaccine studies. Yes." "I brought vaccines to the market. Proton pump inhibitors, cardiac drugs, biologics for all sorts of conditions. First, postpartum depression drug, drugs that never made it to the market because they killed people. Clinical trials doctors follow guidelines that allows the industry to provide safe drugs. These guidelines were not followed during the pandemic." "And because of that, everyone is affected. COVID should have been a time where humanity joined forces together and doctors needed to come together. It's a shame that it didn't happen. Interference with research affects all of us. This should not be political." "Science is a story that evolves. It's a multitude of experiments that allow us to see medicine, to give hopes to patients. Skepticism, challenging the current state of knowledge. Having an open mind must be allowed if we have any hope of moving science forward. What I saw this pandemic was not science. Thank you."

Camus

127,765 просмотров • 1 год назад

SHINGRIX Shingles Vaccine...Clinical Trials Used No Placebo & 'Safety Tested' For Only 7 Days. Black Box Warning For Guillain Barre Syndrome Causing A 'Polio Like' Paralysis. 50% Of Recipients Experience Severe Systemic Reaction. Vaccine Causes 15X Increased Risk Of Shingles. --- WARNINGS AND PRECAUTIONS --- *⃣ In postmarketing, Guillain-Barré syndrome was observed during the 42 days following vaccination with SHINGRIX & Black Box Warning added in 2021. *⃣ Anaphylaxis & Syncope is associated with SHINGRIX. Emergency procedures & appropriate medical treatment should be administered for cerebral perfusion & anaphylaxis. *⃣ Documented Lupus cases induced by the Shingrix vaccine. ---CLINICAL TRIAL & SAFETY STUDY--- *⃣ GSK Glaxosmithkline Clinical trials for SHINGRIX used diluted SHINGRIX as the placebo. *⃣ Shingrix participants in 'safety studies' were monitored for 7 days post vaccination. Two independent datasets—a general practice dataset (Outcome Health’s Population Level Analysis and Reporting) & a statewide hospital and notifiable conditions linked dataset (Vaccine Safety Health Link)- were analysed. A 15-fold increase in new onset shingles within 21 days post vaccination. ---POST MARKETING ADVERSE EVENTS--- Gout Shingles Arthritis Myalgia Optic Ischemic Neuropathy New onset immune mediated disease Death GI distress Arthralgia Neuropathy Infective pneumonia Influenza Neuralgia Guillain Barre Syndrome Lupus ---DESCRIPTION & INGREDIENTS--- The gE antigen is obtained by culturing GMO genetically engineered Chinese Hamster Ovary cells, the adjuvant suspension component is AS01B. Shingrix contains 5 Phosphates, DOPC, MPL which comes from the cell wall of Salmonella, QS21, Polysorbate 80, Sucrose, Host Cell Protein & DNA. ---NEW NOVEL ANTIGEN USED IN SHINGRIX--- AS01B Adjuvant & QS21 Excipient:Intramuscular injection of free QS21 results in necrosis at the injection site & it is likely that the toxicity of free QS21 that was observed after injection is caused by the binding of QS21 to cellular cholesterol in the membranes of local cells. QS21 binds irreversibly to cholesterol to form a complex, and when QS21 is exposed to erythrocytes it causes pores to form in the lipid bilayer of the cells. Systemic reactions occur in 50% of the recipients. ---NUMBERS NEEDED TO PREVENT NEURALGIA--- The numbers needed to treat to prevent 1 case of neuralgia is 356 patients receiving both doses of Shingrix. ---Waning Efficacy Over Time--- Year 1: 67% Effective Year 2: 50% Effective Year 8: 27% Effective Year 10: 15% Effective Shingles of course is a painful illness, but it can be cured permanently & cleared from the system within 14 days using a natural 3 part protocol. Let me know in the comments or thru DM if you would like my protocol I developed that cured my husband's severe Shingles in 2016. The vaccine is harmful & allopathic antiviral treatments after a shingles diagnosis are toxic to the system & do not heal the root cause as to why you got shingles in the 1st place. Heal, treat the root cause & permanently eradicate the post shingle neuropathy is the best way to deal with shingles. 👇GSK SHINGRIX Package Insert👇 👇SHINGRIX Causes Guillain Barre Syndrome👇 👇SHINGRIX Vaccine Causes Lupus👇 👇SHINGRIX Causes 15X Increase In Shingles👇 Speaker: Dr Jeffrey Barke, MD

Valerie Anne Smith

447,289 просмотров • 11 месяцев назад

🚒 MSF: “This Is Not Aid. This Is Orchestrated Killing.” Doctors Without Borders (MSF) has documented in a new report the “horrors witnessed by MSF staff at two clinics that regularly received mass influxes of casualties” following Israeli violence at sites run by the GHF, the Israeli-US proxy that has militarized food distribution. Between June 7 and July 24, 1,380 casualties, including 28 dead, were received at MSF’s Al-Mawasi and Al-Attar clinics in southern Gaza, located near the GHF-run distribution sites. During those seven weeks, MSF teams treated 71 children for gunshot wounds, 25 of whom were under the age of 15. The report states: “Faced with no alternatives to find food, starved families frequently send teenage boys into this lethal environment, as they are often the only males in the household physically able to make the journey. Patients have also included a 12-year-old boy hit by a bullet that had passed all the way through his abdomen, and five young girls, one of whom was only 8 years old and suffered a gunshot wound to her chest.” MSF General Director for MSF Spain Raquel Ayora, says: “Children shot in the chest while reaching for food. People crushed or suffocated in stampedes. Entire crowds gunned down at distribution points,” “In MSF’s nearly 54 years of operations, rarely have we seen such levels of systematic violence against unarmed civilians.” “The GHF distribution sites masquerading as ‘aid’ have morphed into a laboratory of cruelty. This must stop now.” An initial analysis of the gunshot wounds among patients arriving at the Al-Mawasi clinic found that 11 per cent of the gunshot injuries were to the head and neck, while 19 per cent were to areas covering the chest, abdomen, and back. By contrast, people arriving from the Khan Younis Distribution Centre were far more likely to arrive with gunshot wounds to the lower limbs. MSF says: “The distinct patterns and anatomical precision of these injuries strongly suggests the intentional targeting of people within and around the distribution sites, rather than accidental or indiscriminate fire.” The report continues: “In May, Israeli authorities sought to dismantle the UN-led humanitarian response and replace it with a militarized food distribution scheme operated by GHF. All four GHF-run distribution sites are in areas under full Israeli military control, and “secured” by private American armed contractors. The GHF has been touted by the Israeli and US governments as an “innovative solution” – a supposed answer to their unproven claims of aid diversion in Gaza and unfounded accusations of UN failure. The sites are nothing but a deadly scheme, institutionalising the Israeli authorities’ starvation policy of Gaza that started on 2 March, with the full siege they imposed on the Strip as part of their ongoing genocidal campaign.” People who manage to secure any food rations at the sites often face the risk of violent looting and theft of aid by other starved people. MSF says its medical teams were required to add a new acronym to their patient registry: BBO – Beaten By Others. This refers to people injured either in the crush of the crowd or by being beaten and robbed of their supplies immediately after receiving them. It is dehumanisation by design. Aitor Zabalgogeazkoa, MSF emergency coordinator in Gaza says: “On 1 August, the same day the US special envoy to the Middle East visited GHF sites, 15-year-old Mahmoud Jamal Al-Attar was killed around the Al-Shakoush GHF site while trying to get food,” “He arrived at the MSF Al-Mawasi clinic after being shot in the chest.” “We treat only a fraction of the total number of people killed and injured at these sites. There is no other way to describe the murder of children as anything but intentional,” says Zabalgogeazkoa. “Despite the condemnations and calls for dismantling it, the global inaction to stop GHF is baffling.” 🎥 Head of MSF UK spoke to Sky News. Report is linked below.

Drop Site

34,360 просмотров • 11 месяцев назад

It's not about what we have or don't have that drives our trading decisions—it's what we're afraid of losing. This fear of loss has often led me down the false path of perfectionism. Yet true mastery and profitability in trading, like in art, comes from embracing the craft's imperfections. ✉️ At the recent Mumbai traders' meetup, Chhirag Kedia spoke a line that has resonated with me all week— वो आदमी सफल होने से कोई रोक नहीं सकता जो अपनी कश्ती जला कर आया हो! It made me reflect on my trading journey and how my risk-taking appetite has evolved over the years. I'm inherently risk-conservative as an individual, though my career decisions and trajectory paint a completely opposite picture. I've never gone bust or even had a significant drawdown in my trading life—initially because I was too cautious, and now because my skills have improved. When I look back at my interactions with other traders and analyse my own performance graph, I am noticing a pattern: traders who started recklessly or faced major drawdowns—but persistently improved their execution—often developed better and faster learning curves than those who began cautiously with small positions. Even Quallamaggie (Q) and Zanger (Z) demonstrated similar patterns—their initial failures didn't reduce their risk appetite or aggression. Rather, they increased their risk appetite as their accounts grew larger. When ordinary traders dismiss Q and Z as exceptions in the trading world, they're likely rationalizing their own fears—fear of bouncing back from setbacks beyond their risk comfort zone, and fear of not having enough skin in the game. After all, as Taleb says, courage is the only virtue you cannot fake. I wonder if I would have been a better trader today had I started more aggressively—even borderline recklessly—and then learned to control that aggression, rather than the other way around. Has my obsession with perfection (or trying to get close to it) actually slowed down my learning curve as a trader? Perfectionism and Self-Abuse In every trade—even with flawless setups and meticulously calculated risks—there are countless ways to feel wrong, whether you make money or not: You buy and it goes down You don't buy and it goes up You buy, it falls, you sell—then it goes up It goes up, you sell, and it keeps going up It goes up, you buy, it goes up further—then drops You buy with half size and it moves up; you pyramid with full size and it goes down You buy with double size and it drops; you buy with half size and it doesn't go up as much . . . and the list can go on But there is only one way you'll feel right: When you buy and it immediately goes up, and when you sell and it immediately goes down. And this is a very very rare instance. But the pursuit of perfect trade—trying to capture both the first and last eighth of every trade—is where much self-belief and confidence is needlessly lost. The search for the perfect chart, perfect market conditions, and perfect mindset was probably the most paralyzing form of self-abuse in trading I had done. It led me to the comfort of inaction rather than risk the ego to scrape the imperfect rewards on offer. Lets take up an example that was discussed in the last Mumbai meetup - PDMJE Paper - Trade Objective An Episodic Pivot setup, gapping out of a big base, to be held as a longer positional play. Entry (Orange lines) 29th October 2024 Entry 113.95, Stop Loss 2% - 111.7 (~Day low) Risk on Trade 0.75% of portfolio, Size - 35% Sells (Blue Lines) 50% Sell at 6R - 128.6 - This was not a planned sell, but I observed weak market depth with sporadic volumes over the next 3-4 days. As a precaution, I reduced size in this illiquid counter. = 3R 50% sell at ~12R - 143 - The swing move had become overextended, moving far from the 10/21 EMA. The position was sold when price broke below the opening range lows in weakness. = 6R Impact of portfolio - 6.75% Analyzing this trade up to this point, it was executed well with little room for improvement—almost perfect. This was also a very obvious EP trade, and many others had executed it similarly. In the group discussion of this trade, even though everyone had profited, regret about the price movements after exit overshadowed the satisfaction from actual gains. If you had missed the pullback entries near the 21 EMA on November 13th (which wasn't actually setup-ready) or the breakout entry that triggered on November 29th (when markets were strong and many stocks were breaking out), you would have likely missed the 80% move that happened in less than a month, which I did. The traders in the group spent much of their emotional energy obsessing over this missed opportunity, ultimately accumulating emotional debt from the markets. The paradox of trading is that while realized losses may dent our account, missing potential gains often dent our confidence. Each time we let the fear of missed opportunities overshadow our actual successes, we unconsciously train ourselves to trade smaller, not bigger - precisely when our proven profitability should be empowering us to scale up. It took me years to understand that successful trading doesn't require feeling happy. I can make sound decisions and evaluate my performance objectively, even when I feel frustrated about missed opportunities. The only true nobility in this business is making money, not chasing dopamine highs. The Adjustment Taking a loss is straightforward—we simply follow our stop loss. The real challenge—and greatest potential for regret—lies in managing profitable positions, particularly when a stock has made big moves in a short period. This is particularly common in magnitude trades like an EP or IPO where our objective is to hold for a longer duration and sell into weakness, but often have moments when the stock is overextended in the short term with a high probability of pulling back. However, we hesitate to sell either because it conflicts with our original trade objective or because we fear missing the chance to buy back during the pullback. This is where many professional traders actively manage their core positions. Rather than passively waiting for a deeper trailing stop loss to trigger during weakness, they sell a portion when the price becomes extended and buy back the same amount at a lower price. This strategy proves more effective than enduring drawdowns while waiting for a formal pullback setup at support levels or moving averages. Let's take a recent example of IGIL (5 min chart) - Trade Objective An early-stage IPO setup displaying a typical volatility contraction pattern (VCP) on intraday charts. The plan is to hold this as a longer-term position, treating it as an All-or-Nothing trade. Entry (Orange line) 24th December 2024 Entry 504, Stop Loss 2% - 493.95 Risk on Trade 0.50% of portfolio, Size - 23% of pf Adjustment Context - 27th December 2024 The stock had surged powerfully over the previous two days, hitting Upper Circuits. On the third day, despite gapping up at open, it immediately broke down during the opening range - like a typical parabolic short setup. This was a point with a high probability of a short-term pullback or consolidation. Sells (Blue Line) 27th December - 585 - 50% size Buyback (Orange line 2) 27th December - 565 - 50% size - Gained 1R Rationale - My anchor bias was for the price to cool off for a bit. - At the 27th open, the price was already at ~8R+ for me. Even if the stock rose further after I sold my partial position, I wouldn't regret it much—I had already secured 4R with half my position still pending, well above my journal averages. This served as an important emotional anchor point for this adjustment. - When buying back, I was simply looking to average down my costs without a specific target or a perfect setup in mind. In this case, I bought back at 565, as the buyback itself presented a good psychological point to cover (10 Rs initial stop loss, 20 Rs points averaged ~1R at half size). It could have been lower too if the breakdown was slower. This was more intuitive and intentionally imperfect. - I close most of these adjustments on the same day since they are just short-term pullbacks and my overall bias remains bullish. A magnitude trade can also be looked at as a combination of several intraday trades around a core position. - This adjustment method applies specifically to magnitude trades like EP and IPO positions, where the trade objective aligns with pyramiding or averaging costs. Caveat You might think this is a cherry-picked example—and you'd be partly right, since it's one of my better and more recent trades (you can see similar patterns in Care or TI). However, I urge you to stay open to the concept. Look back at your previous trades where you held positions too long passively—you'll often find that temporary extensions and pullbacks were easily visible, offering opportunities to capture additional R’s along the way. Traders commonly face similar emotions and dilemmas when deciding how to act in these situations. End Note

Anuragg Venkatakrishnan

24,423 просмотров • 1 год назад

Research suggests that up to 40% of cancer cases could be prevented through lifestyle changes. The evidence is now overwhelming: exercise is not just supportive—it’s a therapeutic intervention that recalibrates tumor biology, enhances treatment tolerance, and improves survival outcomes. Today’s interview features Dr. Kerry Courneya. With over 600 peer-reviewed studies, he is one of the most influential figures in exercise oncology. Even if you aren't someone who has personally experienced cancer in one form or another, you need to watch this episode. Episode 99 is Available now on X, YouTube, Spotify, and Apple Podcasts. Chapters: 0:00 - Introduction 1:47 - Why exercise should be effortful 2:33 - How to meaningfully reduce risk of cancer 6:22 - What type of exercise is best? 7:59 - How exercise reduces risk—even for smokers and the obese 10:48 - Weekend-only exercise 13:49 - 150 vs. 300 minutes per week (more is better—up to a point) 16:03 - Why pre-diagnosis exercise matters 19:09 - Why resilience to cancer treatment starts with exercise 21:01 - Why low muscle mass drives cancer death 23:58 - Why BMI fails to measure true obesity 27:51 - Why daily activity isn't enough (structured exercise matters) 29:34 - Breaking up sedentary time—do ‘exercise snacks’ help? 31:50 - Supplements vs. exercise 32:32 - Where exercise fits with chemo and immunotherapy 35:30 - Why rest is not the best medicine 41:20 - Aerobic vs. resistance 42:13 - How weight training improves 'chemo completion' 44:41 - Why exercise creates vulnerability in cancer cells (limitations do apply) 47:09 - Why exercise might be crucial for tumor elimination 53:03 - Why cardio may be better at clearing tumor cells 56:18 - When cancer spreads quickly—and when it doesn't 57:43 - Why liquid biopsies may prevent over-treatment 1:02:56 - Exercise-sensitive vs. exercise-resistant cancers 1:06:06 - Prostate cancer therapy—why strength training matters 1:08:10 - When exercise is the only therapy—does it work? 1:09:26 - Why HIIT reduces PSA in prostate cancer 1:11:40 - Avoiding overtreatment—can exercise buy you time? 1:12:00 - Why high-intensity exercise boosts anti-cancer biology 1:13:11 - Turning a diagnosis into a wake-up call 1:16:11 - Why oncologists are rethinking exercise 1:18:50 - Why exercise eases anxiety about cancer—proven psychological benefits 1:25:00 - Before, during, and after treatment 1:27:02 - Why exercise is unique among cancer therapies 1:28:16 - Why cancer patients stop exercising—the risky mistake almost everyone makes 1:30:41 - How to get sedentary cancer patients exercising (realistically) 1:33:15 - The $1 million case for including exercise 1:34:56 - Why recurrence trials haven't convinced doctors—yet 1:37:36 - The bottom-line message 1:37:55 - The myth of a cancer panacea (exercise included) 1:44:07 - What's the best $50 investment for staying active? 1:44:40 - Only 15 minutes per day—what’s the best anti-cancer exercise?

Dr. Rhonda Patrick

219,784 просмотров • 1 год назад

🚨 EXPOSING NOSTRA. AI 🚨 We have exposed some pretty nasty grifts in this space, but Nostra reigns supreme above all others (by a fair margin). Since we have >30 min video and an intensive Notion document (linked at the very bottom of this post) I am going to just highlight the key areas below. For those who don't want to watch it all - here's some time stamps that cover the most important/most hilarious parts of the video. 1:08 - Site Speed Scamming 101 4:20 - Beginning of the actual findings of what we caught Nostra doing. 5:25 - Nostra CEO tweets about how vitally important it is to have your most critical information above the fold on your site. Then we show that they almost exclusively marketed their fake site speed scores above the fold. 6:37 - The 'before and after' that shows how radically different the Nostra team made their site after they realized they were being investigated (perhaps my favorite part) 11:05 - Before: YOUR SITE PERFORMANCE SCORE MATTERS ..... 1 day later, Nostra CEO: "Yeah page speed scores are pretty useless" 😂 12:07 - "Nostra clients are 8x more likely to pass core web vitals compared to non Nostra clients" *Lukas then shows how every single one of their 'success story' case studies are failing almost all core web vitals on their home pages.... 15:10 - Jake dives into the technical shortcomings of the Nostra product, from them using a deprecated form of rendering and claiming (falsely) that Google still endorses it, to showing that any visitor logged into any Nostra-enabled site is not fed the cached pages... meaning that many of their highest LTV clients are being given a drastically worse browsing experience.... + lots more! 29:47 - Lukas shows all of the deleted tweets from the Nostra CEO. Suspiciously, all of them just so happen to be based on page speed scores... hmm. The main points: - Nostra uses site speed cloaking tactics to artificially inflate performance numbers on Google's Page Speed Insights. There is no ethical reason to do this. It is a tactic used exclusively by site speed scammers. *A few people may point to the fact that Meta uses Lighthouse scores as one of many contributing factors to showing ads, so certain sites MAY see an uptick in paid performance on Meta while having these fake scores. This is a horrible basis to justify attempting black hat scams on Google tools. I'll be doing a whole separate video for this topic alone, but for now, just understand it is shortsighted and unbelievably stupid. - They then used those artificially inflated performance scores as the central focus of their entire marketing strategy. *They have released some hilariously inaccurate/misleading blog posts in the past week that try and claim they don't use cloaking and that their methods are totally ethical... you better believe we are doing a follow-up video that dismantles these blog posts paragraph by paragraph. - Various current and former clients of Nostra have confirmed that one of their central selling points when convincing them to pay for Nostra (often quoting/charging thousands a month) was that their Google performance numbers were going to go up, which meant a faster site, which meant more revenue. A blatant, irrefutable lie. - As we dug into their code, we found even more issues. Most notably, their 'crawler optimization' was stripping down pages for both Lighthouse (Page Speed Insights) as well as Googlebot, which means that the contents of any page 'client-side rendered' by Nostra in this way was almost entirely invisible to Google, as it saw basically nothing to crawl and index. - All of our findings were confirmed by over a dozen well-respected developers in the Shopify space, including high-ranking engineers at Shopify. - Before we notified Nostra of our investigation into them, Jake Casto (partner in this report) met directly with the Nostra team, including their Chief Lead Architect (?) and asked every question he could to gain as much context as possible. This meeting further confirmed all of our findings and even pushed some further. - Hours after we notified the CEO of Nostra about our investigation into them and the impending report we would release, their entire site changed.... like... CHANGED. Nearly every mention of 'page speed' or 'performance score' was stripped from the site, including all of their case studies. Additionally, they renamed an entire product. Their 'Crawler Optimization' tool became 'Bimodal Dynamic Rendering'.... - That same night, the Nostra CEO then deleted all tweets insinuating performance score as a benefit of using Nostra (proof shown in the video) and began publicly talking about how useless speed scores are. A metric they had long lauded as the single-most important aspect of what their tech improves was now "pretty useless" just a few hours later. - It is imperative to know that we did not mention ANYTHING about our interest in investigating their focus on performance scores as a key marketing strategy. All of these changes were made by them without knowing anything about what in particular we were investigating. Not shockingly, the main scam we were highlighting in our investigation is what was wiped entirely (within literal hours) from their site/their founders personal messaging. * go look at their site now and try to find any claims about performance scores on their home page. They even took them off the top of all their case studies. (we show this all in the video as well). - Nostra has since continued to modify their code, resulting in some of their 'success story' clients seeing a 50+ point drop in performance scores (shown in the video). More current and former clients continue to reach out and share more stories about the many sketchy happenings at Nostra. - Nostra also released a very weak response in the form of 2 blog posts that aim to justify their actions/tech. They have been sharing this with their clients and attempting to patch over the MANY inconsistencies and blatant lies they were caught in. As I said earlier, we will be doing a video dedicated to dismantling these blog posts in detail. Moral of the story. No SaaS is going to plug in to your Shopify store and drastically increase your performance scores in a matter of moments. Any tool or dev or agency, no matter how fancy they look and how much venture backing they have, will be able to get your Shopify stores' mobile performance scores into the 80/90's under any normal circumstances. If someone says they can... You are 100% being scammed. Site speed optimization is a complex development process that takes highly-skilled devs dozens of hours to do properly. No tool can replace this. Don't be fooled into thinking otherwise. For a deeper look into the technical side, check out the link below.

Lukas Tanasiuk

77,455 просмотров • 2 лет назад

$AMD is easily a $1,200 stock IMO| CPUs TAM 🧵 Not Financial Advice! DYOR! In this thread, I want to discuss the actual TAM for CPUs data center for just 2026, where many are giving different ranges, where I don't agree with. I will explain in detail why I disagree with these research firms and financial analysts using Math. And this thread should not be treated as Financial Advice. I'm just explaining my research and thought process so we can have a discussion. In 2024/2025, I gave out $620 PT for FY2026 was too conservative for AMD potential. At the time, It was early and many were just laughing, that PT was unrealistic and the AI world is run on GPUs only. Today, most of these folks are laughing with me. That is ok, I dont offer financial advice, and I do not need everyone to agree with me. I respect other opinions. If you enjoy this kind of thread, slap the like/repost/bookmark. If you want to support my work further and gain more in-depth analysis, consider subscribe! In early 2026, hyperscalers, enterprises, and OEMs are scrambling as Intel and AMD server CPUs are largely sold out for the year, with prices jumping 10–20% and lead times stretching from weeks to months (or longer for certain SKUs). What was once a GPU dominated story has flipped: the shift to explosive Agentic AI with its multi-step reasoning loops, tool calling, multi-agent orchestration, real-time data movement, and reinforcement learning, is dramatically tightening CPU:GPU ratios from the old training-era 1:4–8 all the way to 1:1 to 5:1 or even CPU-heavy configurations. CEOs across NVIDIA, AMD, Intel, Google, Meta, Microsoft, and public companies have been sounding the alarm on CNBC, Bloomberg, and earnings calls. CPUs are “cool again,” and in many agentic deployments they are becoming the new bottleneck alongside (or even ahead of) GPUs and custom ASICs. In 2025, roughly 12-15m AI GPUs + AI ASICs GPUs shipped, and is expect to be 15-20m units by 2026, where it suggesting Training demand is not going away. The actual TAM is structural, multiplicative demand that has already forced AMD to double its long-term server CPU TAM forecast to >$120 billion by 2030 (>35% CAGR), with Dr. Lisa Su noting Q2 2026 server CPU sales expected to surge 70%+ year-over-year and demand “far exceeding expectations.” At the same time, AMD’s secured 30–40% share of TSMC’s initial 2nm capacity (behind only Apple’s >50%) positions it to ramp Zen 6-based EPYC Venice exactly when this agentic wave hits hardest but even that aggressive five-fab 2nm expansion (with plans scaling toward 11 total advanced facilities) cannot instantly close the gap in the near-term. Supply constraints on wafers, advanced packaging, and power are compounding the squeeze, just as hyperscalers forward-buy and lock in long-term deals. 1. The actual potential TAM Various sources and institutions are giving $50-$160-$200B CPUs TAM toward 2030, and i disagree, where supply is severely behind vs Demand by at least 2-3 years or even longer by some estimates. The actual TAM will probably be 15-20m for FY2026. The typical average selling price from low to high end is $5,000 to $15,000, but due to rising memory, and different inflationary pressures on Semi, it would be more logical to think between $7,000-17,000. A. CPU:GPU Ratio at 1:1 A basic calucation at mid range =12,000 x 15-20m CPUs= $180-$240B TAM B. CPU:GPU Ratio at 5:1 = $12,000 x 75m-100m CPUs= $900B-$1.2T TAM Of course TSMC cannot even supply 20% of this massive inflection TAM in 2026. But do we think of Demand for TAM or Supply for TAM? Hence we are seeing massive 2nm Ramp from TSMC for $AMD. IMO, conservatively, I would take down 15-20% on 1:1 or $135-$192B TAM for just 2026. Im not even talking about 2030. We are just months into this, it is impossible to estimate Cagr atm, but this is 1-5 agents running tasks, I wrote a thread on 24/7 autonomous agents thread, where companies could use 50-250 agents to run tasks for them 24/7. It would require a different structural CPU:GPU to bring down the cost of token as well as handling the Orchestration bottleneck. GPUs would be useless and sit idle waiting for CPU due to highly CPU-intensive nature. The cost per Million tokens must come down more rapidly for this 50-250 autonomous agents to work, otherwise the token cost would be too enormous. Helios Rack is estimated to bring inference cost down to $0.0003-$0.0005/M tokens with 18 EPYC Venices along with 72 MI455x and other chips+ Components. A heavier or CPUs dense rack would bring down inference cost further. EPYC Verano(2027 gen 7 AI-optimized) is expected to drive inference costs meaningfully lower than the Venice baseline likely to the $0.00002–$0.00025 per million tokens range (or even sub-$0.00015 in highly optimized agentic/batch workloads). Verano have higher core counts than Venice, LPDDR5X SOCAMM2 memory support, more AI optimized and Next-Gen rack density & efficiency. 2. $AMD secured at least 30-40% of TSMC 2nm capacity and Memory from Samsung through 2028-2030. 2 2nm fabs are entering ramping phase toward 60-65k wafers per months and 5 dedicated 2nm fabs entering mass production/ramp in 2026. Will link sub threads below if you are interest for full detail. Apple is reported to secure 50%+ 2nm capacity for Iphone 18 and Mac chips and AMD secured at least 30-40% capacity while $NVDA $AVGO $ARM $AMZN $GOOGL and others are on 3nm. This broader aggressive ramp from TSMC to target up to 11 fabs is to address $AMD massive growth ahead. Where $ARM is facing massive CPUs supply constraints as they have to compete with other Mega Cap players on 3nm allocation. And $INTC is also facing supply constraints for data center CPUs and PC per management with lead times extrended to longer than 12 weeks. Dr. Su is aiming for higher than 50%+ Market share, and I believe it is achievable in 2026 or 2027 as AMD has the strongest CPUs offerings. Dr. Su did not want to take advantage of the shortage and she said during the Q1 earning call, AMD is prioritizing Units shipped while guiding margin to be inching 60%. If Jensen were in charge, I'm sure margin would be 70-75% in this kind of severe CPUs shortage condition. But that is not how Dr. Su operates for more than a decade. She wants most market share. So we will see it in revenue growth, but as TSMC ramps faster and faster, AMD Operating and FCF margin will massively improve vs prior decade. A significantly higher margin profile than before. 3. How I came up with $1,200 withint 12-18 months? At $1,200/ share, that would be around $2 Trillion MC. I expect FY2027 revenue to be $124-$144B where data center revenue dominates overall revenue. AI GPUs: I will stick to the lowest end so show u that I'm conservative at $18B for each GW vs $NVDA Rubin is $30B+ (most likely Helios Rack in the $20B+ due to memory price rising). We know deals with OpenAI and Meta are around 12GW and additional multi-customers at multi-GW scale were hinted and will be revealed as we get to July 22-23 2026 Advancing AI event. For now I will conservatively add a bit more to this model. (3-6GW Helios Rack Range) EPYC Venice is reported to be in $15,000-$20,000. However large customers will likely to enjoy $10-$12k discount. I expect AMD to be able to ramp 7m EPYC Venice for entire 2026 and 3-4m of EPYC Verano(higher price than Venice). If we take an average selling price of $10,000 to be on the conservative side. Take down another 30% to be even more conservative on projection. I like to be conservative. That would be ~ 7m EPYC CPUs(Venice + Verano) for FY2027 or 583,000 units per month or 15,000 additional 2nm wafers per month which is completely reasonable for current TSMC Ramp, and I may be too conservative here. EPYC Verano and MI500 series will also be on 2nm. AI GPUs: 3GW x $18B= $54B EPYC CPUs: $10k x 7m CPUs= $70B = Data center revenue alone is $124B Other segments= probably in the $20-$25B FY 2027. FY2027 revenue = $124-$149B At 7m EPYC CPUs for entire 2027, that would be more than 50% market share when we comp it to availability from supply side, not from total Demand. It is possible that TSMC could significantly ramp even more capacity in 2027, so we will see. Metric Q1 2026 FY2027 Gross Margin 55-56% 60-62% Operating Margin 25-26% 32-35% Net Income Margin ~22% 26-30% FCF Margin 25% 28-30% At $124-$149B Revenue FY 2027 Net Income would be $32-$44B EPS would be $20-$27 (GAAP) Non-GAAP would be $25-$31 At $1,200 a share or $2T valuation that would be: 13.4-16x Price to Sales (P/S) 38-48 P/E At this kind of growth of AI SuperCycle, I think it is very reasonable valuation. If we use today at $406/share or $661B MC: 2027 P/S = 4.4x-5.3x 2027 P/E = 13x-16x Is AMD today expensive or cheap to you? Above is already a very conservative where I trimmed 20-30% of doable units. Meaning, there could be upside if TSMC is able to ramp meaningfully like they are planning. Conclusion: A $1,200 per share valuation IMO for AMD in FY2027 is not expensive at all; it is, in fact, conservative when viewed against the structural explosion in agentic AI demand we have mapped out. With server CPU TAM potentially scaling into the $100–$200B+ range in just CPU:GPU 1:1 Ratio for just 2026. AMD positioned to capture 50%+ share thanks to its 2nm TSMC allocation advantage and full-stack leadership, the company could realistically deliver $124–149B in total revenue and $25–$31+ non-GAAP EPS. At those levels, $1,200 implies a 2027 P/E = 13x-16x. Entirely reasonable for a company that will have become the clear Inference Queen (and in many workloads the preferred) AI infrastructure provider, with operating margins expanding above 30% and tens of billions in high-margin rack-scale AI revenue. Dr. Lisa Su was right presciently so about the Agentic AI inflection all the way back to her early 2022–2023 commentary on the coming shift from pure training to inference and orchestration-heavy workloads. While the broader market only fully woke up to this in 2026 when she doubled AMD’s long-term server CPU TAM forecast to >$120B by 2030 (with >35% CAGR), Dr. Su and her team have consistently positioned the company at the center of the CPU renaissance. The explosive demand we are seeing today, sold-out lines, rising ASPs, and hyperscalers forward-buying entire gigawatts of Helios-class systems is exactly the outcome she forecasted years ago. Not Financial Advice! DYOR!

Mike

301,322 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

TOPIC # 46 DEVELOP REAL ECOSYSTEM DURING 2ND STAGE Dear Global Pioneers, Happy Saturday! Today, I recorded a ten-minute video for you. However, I understand that many of the pioneers may not understand English. So, I am writing this article to help you understand my message. ✅Summary of the 1st Currency stage work from the pioneers' community: According to the white paper, Pi will be a global currency, designed not as an asset or a traditional investment, but as a currency. Therefore, we, as the pioneers' community, need to help Pi complete its mission. The core team can only take care of the infrastructure work; the rest depends on us. This is why it's important for pioneers to understand that we have our task. Our task is not just to complete KYC and migration; it's to develop Pi as a currency. The characteristics of currency include durability, portability, divisibility, uniformity, limited supply, and acceptability. Currency has five major functions: scale of value, means of circulation, means of storage, means of payment, a world settlement currency. Over the past two and a half years, our focus has been on establishing the first currency function as " scale of value" and generating at least one million GCV $314,159 data. We have received support from pioneers representing at least 120 countries. We believe there is no alternative to GCV in terms of pricing. CT’s announcement on Pi2Day indicates that we are on right track and at the forefront of OM. As a result, GCV $314,159 is aligned with Pi Network's mission and vision. I’ve noticed that many pioneers are questioning CT about the delay in KYC and migration procedures over the past two and a half years. My response is that they were awaiting GCV from pioneers. Without this support, our goal of establishing a currency would not be achievable. However, despite the recent Global GCV movement, we have not seen significant involvement from merchants in the exchange of GCV. Most of the data has been generated by pioneers. This is crucial during the initial stages for "value scale." from our pioneers. We have submitted petitions to CT three times for OM on Pi2Day. This is because most community leaders and pioneers are facing resource shortages, and the first function of "value scale" has been successful. If CT can announce the GCV price and OM on Pi2Day , the entire ecosystem will operates on the same pricing system for development. We believe this strategy can also work well. However, CT has announced that OM will be at the earliest by the end of this year. From my perspective, the goal is to reach 15 million KYC and 10 migration Pi wallets, and more importantly, to ensure that the ecosystem has developed to meet the maturity level outlined in the 2019 white paper, or at least has a prototype of the ecosystem. This approach may eliminate the need to announce the Pi price once the entire ecosystem has been accepted. This conservative approach aims to prevent pioneers from converting Pi to FIAT after OM. Instead, the ecosystem will offer utilities for pioneers to use. This will result in a more stable and secure Pi currency. ✅Since CT has decided to OM until the year end or later, there will be at least five months for ecosystem development. Hence, the question now is what pioneers can do during Currency 2nd Stage? Pioneers always have the task of completing their KYC and migration on time, and they are encouraged to become validators if they wish. In addition to the above, pioneers have another important task, which CT cannot directly ask us to do, but it's something we need to do for ourselves. This task is to join the ecosystem with GCV price. As we have discussed, since we want Pi as a currency, it must circulate in our community. Therefore, we need merchants and service providers to offer products or services. However, we cannot force them to do so. If we enforce full Pi payments, they will avoid participating. Currently, we are seeing some full Pi payments in our online ecosystem at different prices, but almost all are very low, less than $1 or less than $0.1. We believe this price is not suitable for Pi's long-term vision and mission. That's why we choose to only support GCV. ✅So the next question is: How can we motivate merchants and service providers to join our ecosystem so that we can OM with GCV $314,159? My suggestion is to allow partial Pi and partial FIAT. They can use 50%, 60%, 70%, 80%, or even 90% FIAT. As long as the FIAT value is lower than the market price, it will benefit pioneers. When more merchants join, they will compete with each other to lower the FIAT ratio. This concept aims to create a real business environment, not a charity environment. We should not depend on leaders, pioneers, or merchants to donate. Instead, we need to create a mechanism to let them compete, which will benefit them and motivate more merchants to join. What about pioneers? If given two options, which one would you choose? a. Only small items worth $1 available for full Pi payment, with no higher value products available and still needing to spend FIAT from the outside market. b. Buy products inside our community at a 50%, 60%, 70%, 80%, 90% FIAT ratio, lower than the outside market price, and including larger items like cell phones, TVs, appliances, jewelry, furniture, clothing, shoes, etc. without limitation. You will save at least 20%-30% on your daily or luxury purchases. I believe you would want option b, as you would save a significant amount of money during the five months. Most importantly, you would be very happy because you understand that what you do will make GCV $314,159 a reality without any doubt. Do you want to live with uncertainty or certainty? Joining this kind of barter system will bring you happiness with certainty. This is what I call the creation of Pi circulation, which is our second stage. After OM, we will enter the third, fourth, and fifth stages, which are the storage, payment, and international settlement currency stages. Since GCV $314,159 on the right track to OM, we need to make GCV more widely accepted and widely used to create circulation. In this way, we will make GCV OM foundation very strong and this will help the ecosystem after OM to reduce any risk that pioneers all go to exchange market to dump. Pi represents not only the future of our pioneers but also the future of the world. Let us come together as a strong, unified family and community. However, beyond this unity, it is imperative to establish a robust business ecosystem and a supportive development environment to encourage and incentivize the participation of more ecosystem members towards our long-term objectives. This will have a positive impact on our local economy and facilitate garnering support from various national governments for the Pi Network. It is crucial for the ecosystem to adhere to FIAT tax obligations to respective country governments, even during the mainnet enclosure. Therefore, partial FIAT payments are essential to enable compliance. Without such a practice, merchants would struggle to sustain themselves and would not have the necessary FIAT currency for tax payments. Doris Yin 🪷🪷🪷 Disclaimer: The above is only my personal analysis and does not represent CT or any business, and is only for community education. Any merchants or pioneers should use their own evaluation to see if it is suitable for them.

Doris Yin 东方紫莲🪷

35,873 просмотров • 2 лет назад

BOOM!!! 💥💥💥 Dr. Aseem Malhotra's testimony was delivered in the Helsinski District Court on April 12, 2024, with the understanding that any deviation from the truth would constitute perjury. This clip was immediately banned by YouTube so please share widely. I've trimmed the clip, removing the interpreter's segment for a smoother listening experience. Here's the first hour of the testimony. ---------------------------------- My name is Doctor Aseem Malhotra. I am a consultant cardiologist. I've been a qualified doctor since 2001. I have held various roles both in academic health policy. In England, in the United Kingdom, and of the various roles, I won't bore you with all the details. I think three of the most relevant and prominent are the fact that I was an ambassador for the Academy of Medical Royal Colleges for six years, which represented every doctor in the UK. I served a full term of six years as a trustee of the King's fund. I was the youngest member to be appointed to this body which advises government on health policy. I was a founding member of Action on Sugar and a first science director. And through that role I'm considered the lead campaigner on bringing about a sugary drinks tax in the UK. And also, finally I served for five years as visiting professor of evidence based medicine at the Bahiana School of Medicine in Salvador, Brazil. In early 2020, at the beginning of the pandemic I was most vocal doctor on the mainstream, making the link very early on between COVID and those who are vulnerable to suffering serious complications from COVID In fact, in March 2020, I was asked to go on Sky News to explain my initial research findings of the link between especially obesity and COVID, but also to give people an opportunity and to suggest to the government this was a great time for them to implement public health policy to help people enhance or optimise their immune system, which could happen within just a few weeks of dietary changes and optimising vitamin D. This was later also backed up by medical journal publications a few months later. And I was first to mention on the back of an article I published in the Daily Telegraph newspaper, which became a front page commentary and was picked up by BBC News and Good Morning Britain, where I had said that it's likely our prime minister, Boris Johnson, was hospitalised because of his weight. As a result of that, the then secretary for health, Matt Hancock, and this was publicised in the news, had asked me to advise him on the link between COVID and obesity. ...before I explain my journey and in many ways U-turn on my understanding in terms of the benefits and harms of the COVID vaccine, my experience in this area over the last couple of years has made me realise more than ever that even for that the greatest barrier to the truth are not factual or intellectual barriers, but psychological. I think all of us as human beings are vulnerable to these psychological barriers and we should have compassion for ourselves. And I will just very briefly summarise those three psychological barriers before I get into my detailed account of what I was involved in in regards to the COVID vaccine. The first psychological barrier is one of fear. And many of us understandably, and I still remember from early on in the pandemic, we were all scared. We did not know what we were dealing with. The issue with fear is that when people and populations are in a state of fear, we are less likely to engage in critical thinking and we are more likely to be compliant. Although COVID was particularly devastating for vulnerable groups in the elderly and I even have managed and still manage people with long COVID, the fear was grossly exaggerated. And one of the examples of that is that when we had good information on the mortality rate of COVID in the United States, one survey in 2020 revealed that 50% of Americans believed that if they caught COVID, the risk of 19 hospitalisation was 50% one and two, when the actual figure, certainly an average for people in middle age, was less than 1%. The second barrier to the truth, which I think is very relevant to the situation we find ourselves in now, is one called willful blindness. This is when human beings, all of us, are vulnerable to this, turn a blind eye to the truth in order to feel safe, avoid conflict, reduce anxiety and to protect prestige and fragile egos. Some examples of this include, on a personal level, willful blindness can occur when a spouse turns a blind eye to the affair of their partner. On an institutional level, some great examples of willful blindness include Hollywood and Harvey Weinstein, the Catholic Church and child molestation. I believe the current situation we find ourselves in, with much of the mainstream narrative and the medical establishment and policy makers not acknowledging quite horrific, serious and common harms from this vaccine, is another example of willful blindness. And I also say this with full empathy, because I was one of those people that was for a very long time, willfully blind to the harms of the COVID vaccine. In January 2021, I was one of the first people to take two doses of the COVID mRNA vaccine because I volunteered in a vaccine centre. I still believe that traditional vaccines are some of the safest amongst all pharmacological interventions in medicine and I could not conceive of any possibility whatsoever of this vaccine causing harm. As a public figure and respected doctor in the UK, I have built relationships across the board with many other public figures, including celebrities and politicians, who often come to me for medical advice. One of those people was film director Gurinder Chadha, who you may be familiar with some of her work, including the movie "Bend It like Beckham", who had asked me whether or not she should take the vaccine and had sent me blogs which I dismissed and regarded as anti vax nonsense. I was then asked to go on good morning, Britain because Gurinder Chadha, the director herself tweeted that I had convinced her to take the vaccine. The main reason for this TV appearance was to help tackle vaccine hesitancy, which was very prominent amongst people from ethnic minority groups in the UK. I made the point on that programme that I understand where vaccine hesitancy was coming from because of the history that I have been involved with over many years in highlighting the shortcomings of pharmaceutical industry influence over medicine. And I even made the point, if I remember correctly, that they have been found guilty of fraud on many occasions, that the third most common cause of death, prepandemic after heart disease and cancer, is prescribed medications. I, however, reassured the public and said that despite these figures, of everything we do in medicine, traditional vaccinations are amongst the safest. I still believe this to be the case. A few months later, in April 2021, I met with a colleague and friend of mine who I regard as one of the brightest cardiologists in the United Kingdom. I was surprised when he told me that he had not taken the COVID vaccine. He explained to me that he had concerns because he had seen in the supplementary appendix of Pfizer's original trial that there were four cardiac arrests in the vaccine group and only one in the placebo. These numbers were small and did not reach statistical significance. So this could be random chance, or his concern was it could represent a signal of problems in the future. And if this was the case, we are going to have a huge problem. He said he'd rather wait and see what happens before taking the vaccine. On July 26, 2021, my father, aged 73, who was a very prominent, well known doctor in the UK, including being the honorary vice president of the British Medical Association and had received honours from the Queen of England with an OBE, suffered an unexpected sudden cardiac arrest. I was particularly devastated by this happening and I was also I find it difficult to understand why my father, who was a fit and well man, I knew his cardiac history and his cardiac status, would suffer a cardiac arrest. But also my initial investigation was to try and understand why there had been a 30 minutes ambulance delay arriving to his apartment. Two weeks later, the deputy chief nurse of NHS England, a government health body, called me up. She was very upset, she knew my father very well and she was crying and she told me, Aseem, there's something I need to tell you. She in effect told me that throughout the country, for the last two months prior to my father's cardiac arrest in most regions of the UK, ambulances were not getting to patients in time for heart attacks and cardiac arrests. And there had been a deliberate, and I will use these words because I mentioned it, I've mentioned it before, a cover up involving the government and the Department of Health to withhold this information from doctors and the public. I worked with an investigative journalist with the I newspaper in the UK to write an article and a news story that became BBC News headlines a few months later, exposing this. Just before I exposed this, I messaged a professor of cardiology who I trust in the UK. He has a leadership role to explain to him what had happened and what I was about to do. I have text message evidence of this. He told me not to do this because it would make me enemies. I explained to him that I had a duty to patients and the public. I'm highlighting this as one example and I'll give you more examples of a cultural problem within medicine. The next part of this story is the post mortem findings of my father. They did not make any sense to me. I am considered a leading expert, maybe in the world, on the development and progression of coronary artery disease. My father had two severe blockages in his coronary arteries. There was no actual evidence of heart attack and likely there was a rhythm disturbance because of reduced blood supply that led to his cardiac arrest. Then in, within the space of a few weeks, around October and November, 3, different sources of information was brought to my attention that made me realise that there was probably a significant problem with the COVID mRNA vaccine. The first in October 2021. I remember I was giving lectures in Stockholm. I was contacted by a journalist with a Times newspaper who reported to me and said, Dr Malhotra, we have reports of an unexplained 25% increase in heart attacks in hospitals in Scotland and asked me what I thought was going on. I explained to her that at that time, with the evidence I knew in my own experience, I said that two likely contributory factors were lockdown stress. We know that when populations undergo severe stress after war, for example, there is an increase in heart attacks and strokes that can last for many years. She asked me whether I thought that there was a contribution. I was surprised when she asked me whether I thought there may be a contribution of the COVID vaccine to these heart attacks. I said to her, a good scientist should never exclude any possibility. But I felt at the time it was unlikely to be related to the COVID vaccine. But we should watch this space and keep our eyes open. A few weeks later, a publication appeared in the Journal Circulation, which is considered the highest impact cardiology journal in the United States that revealed a potentially very strong link between the COVID mRNA vaccines and acceleration in heart attack risk. Very specifically, in several hundred people of middle age, there was a plausible mechanism, by use of inflammatory markers in the blood, that increased the baseline risk of those people having a heart attack in five years, from 11% to 25%, just within two months of having the COVID mRNA vaccines. Of course, this is one bit of data, but even if partially true, that is a huge increase in risk in a very short space of time. And for me now made me think and link back to why my father may have suffered a cardiac arrest six months after having two doses of the vaccine. I remember thinking and speaking to a colleague, that if this was true, then we were going to see an increase in cardiac arrests, heart attacks and excess deaths in heavily vaccinated countries for the next few years. Then within a few weeks, I was called up by a whistleblower at a very prestigious british institution. I will name that institution, which I have not done publicly before as a University of Oxford. This cardiologist explained to me that a group of researchers in his department had accidentally found, through the use of very specialised imaging of the heart, that there was a signal of increased inflammation of the heart arteries, which was there in the vaccinated, but not there in the unvaccinated. The lead researcher of that group had sat down, the juniors, and had said that we are not going to explore these findings any further because it may affect our funding from the pharmaceutical industry. At that point, with these three bits of information, I then felt it was my ethical duty to speak out. And I went on GBNews to talk about what I'd found what I'd heard and I'd asked for the Vaccine Committee of the UK on TV to investigate this, to see whether there was a real problem with the vaccine in relation to heart issues. Around the same time which I found very strange is that the Secretary of State for Health at that stage, who was not Matt Hancock, was Sajid Javid, had announced in parliament that we are going to introduce legislation to ensure that all healthcare workers are mandated to have the COVID vaccine. For me, this, by that stage had no ethical or scientific justification, because certainly after the summer of 2021, it had become very apparent that the COVID mRNA vaccine was not stopping infection and it certainly was not stopping transmission. It was understood that approximately 80,000 NHS workers had refused at this stage to have the COVID vaccine. And now they were threatened with losing their job if by April the following year they had not been fully vaccinated. Many of these people were very concerned and contacted me around that time, I was also conducting many interviews, both through the BBC and Sky News and GBNews in regards to what happened with my father's ambulance delay. And I used it as an opportunity on the mainstream media to call for Sajid Javid, the secretary for health, to U-turn on the introduction of a mandate for healthcare workers based upon the fact that I felt it was not scientific and it was unethical. I also received my own personal backlash from these comments where I was contacted by the Royal College of Physicians who I had an affiliation with, and they asked me to respond to anonymous complaints from doctors that I was spreading, in quotes, antivax disinformation. I felt with my own knowledge and experience of the healthcare system that this was a direct response probably fueled by a combination of willful blindness and institutional corruption. To elaborate a bit further, when I say institutional corruption, I mean that my view was that the complaints were likely being fueled by academics with financial ties to the pharmaceutical industry. I felt very concerned about the potential introduction of the vaccine, well, the vaccine mandate. And therefore I decided there were two things that I decided to do. The first was I made a phone call to the chairman of the British Medical Association in December 2021. I had a good relationship with him and he respected my opinion. And I spent 2 hours on the phone explaining to him everything that I knew up to that stage about my concerns of the COVID mRNA vaccine. He said to me, "Aseem, nobody appears to critically appraise the evidence on the COVID mRNA vaccine as well as you have from our conversation, he said, most of my colleagues are getting their information on the benefits and harms of the vaccine from the BBC". This was replicated by the former chair of the CDC in the United States, Rochelle Walensky, who in an interview later on had said that her initial optimism of the vaccine benefits came from CNN News report. I say this just to emphasise that we should all accept our vulnerabilities to where we receive health information. Even doctors, policymakers, judges and lawyers are all influenced on the public massively by mainstream media. The chairman of the BMA also agreed with me. There was no ethical or scientific justification for mandating the COVID vaccine. He said the BMA also did not support it. And he said because of my conversation with him, he would speak directly to the secretary for health, Sajid Javid. One month later, at the end of January 2022, the COVID vaccine mandate for healthcare workers was overturned. I at that stage, given the fact that there was some backlash happening towards me, I realised that because this is a very big issue and area, and not my initial area of expertise, I needed to carry out my own critical analysis of the COVID mRNA vaccines. I spent six to nine months critically appraising the data, including speaking to two Pfizer whistleblowers, three investigative medical journalists and eminent scientists from the University of Oxford, Stanford and Harvard. The most critical bit, the most critical research that was published on this issue, which I think the whole court should acknowledge in August 2022, was published in the journal Vaccine. That research was conducted by some of the world's top independent of drug industry influence academics. That research, we was able to reanalyze the original randomised control trials conducted by Pfizer and Moderna. They were able to do this because new information was made available on the FDA's website and Health Canada's website. The conclusions of that paper were really very disturbing. The original trials that led to the drug regulatory approval of these vaccines revealed that you were more likely to suffer serious harm from taking the vaccine, specifically hospitalisation, life changing event or disability, than you were to be hospitalised with COVID That rate of harm at two months was very high at 1 in 800. Just to give you some perspective, historically we have suspended other vaccines for much less. In 1976, the swine flu vaccine was pulled because it was found to cause a neurological syndrome called Guillain-Barre syndrome In one in 100,000 people. In 1999, the rotavirus vaccine was suspended because it was found to cause a form of bowel obstruction in children affecting 1 in 10,000. This was 1 in 800. In my view, it was very clear that given this information, published in the highest impact Vaccine journal in the world, peer reviewed, and has not had any significant rebuttals, that this vaccine now, in my view, should never have been approved for use in a single human being in the first place. In my view, this very important court case in some ways, actually is a distraction from the much bigger issue, which is there should be court cases around the world with a full inquiry into the pharmaceutical industry and an inquiry as to how we got this so very wrong. Of course, one could argue this is just one bit of research, but actually, unfortunately, there are different, many different strands of research that are showing a signal of considerable and common serious harm from these vaccines. From pharmacovigilance data that is reporting what we call yellow card reports from the public. We have plausible biological mechanism of harm. We have other research called observational data. We have autopsy data also confirming that certainly with the majority of people who died within a short space of time of having the vaccine in relation to the heart, was definitively caused by the vaccine. This is really a very, very, very horrific situation we find ourselves in. One would hope and expect that the regulators should be independently evaluating all medications. But of course, the evidence reveals this is far from true. There was an investigation by the BMJ, also published in the summer of 2022, which revealed that most of the major regulators across the world were taking most of their money from the drug industry. For example, the MHRA in the UK receives 86% of its funding from the drug industry, and the FDA in America receives 65% of its funding from the drug industry, A fact that most doctors do not know. And therefore, I would not expect members of the court to know this either, is that very, very rarely do drug industry sponsored research get independently evaluated. Clinical trial data can often involve thousands of pages of information on individual patients. The drug companies hold onto that raw data. They then give summary results to the regulator, who are then paying, who have an incentive to approve the drugs, and the drugs are then approved. I made these points in my peer reviewed article published in the Journal of Insulin Resistance in September 2022, where I concluded that we should pause and investigate the issue around the COVID mRNA vaccines. I have since then been campaigning and advocating for a return to ethical evidence based medical practise around the world. Some of the clear solutions moving forward would be changes in the law that are required so that patients, doctors, members of the public can have greater confidence in the information they receive to make decisions about their health. Two very clear, low hanging fruit solutions, which are both ethical, scientific and democratic, would be that the drug industry should be allowed to develop drugs, but they shouldn't be allowed to test them themselves. And they certainly shouldn't be allowed to design their own research to and hold onto the raw data. Their information needs to be independently evaluated. One other clear solution would also be that the medical regulators, again, should not be taking any money from the industry, as this is a gross conflict of interest. I also want to highlight for people to understand the bigger picture. Prior to the pandemic, I had realised that there was a big problem with the reliability of clinical research, where invariably the results of clinical trials on all drugs sponsored by the drug industry, grossly exaggerate their safety and benefits. I have taken this information to the European Parliament, where I spoke in 2019, and I spoke to very senior politicians in the UK government. But although they were sympathetic, they felt that the issue was much bigger than them as individuals, and therefore it also needed media attention to get public awareness on the importance of such an inquiry. Before we continue with further questions, as I've been speaking for quite a long time now I'll just finish with two references just for the court and the judges to understand just how bad this problem is. Prepandemic the man who I call the Stephen Hawking of medicine is Professor John Ioannidis from the University of Stanford. The reason I call him the Stephen Hawking of Medicine is he's the most cited medical researcher in the world and is a mathematical genius. In 2006, he published a paper which was entitled why most published research findings are false. In that paper, he makes a point that the greater the financial interests in a given field, the less likely the research findings are to be true. I say this in context of the Pfizer mRNA vaccine which has made the company $100 billion. The other point that he makes in a further paper in 2017 is, again, the reason the system continues as it is is most doctors are unaware of the information they receive when they make clinical decisions has been corrupted by commercial influence. The other credible name I will mention is the editor of the Lancet, Richard Horton, who I personally know. In 2015, he wrote an article in the Lancet in relation to a secret meeting that had taken place with himself and some of the world's top medical academics. In that, he wrote that possibly half of the medical published literature may simply be untrue. And he said that science has taken a turn towards darkness. But who's going to take the first step to clean up the system? I believe in this case and in this court today, this is going to be a very pivotal potential moment in history for that first step. ---------------------- Dr Aseem Malhotra H/T: Tiina Keskimäki 🇫🇮

aussie17

796,405 просмотров • 2 лет назад

Made $313 → $2,382,780 in 4 Days Using a Claude AI Bot on Polymarket. 26,738 trades. 98% win rate. Full blockchain proof. Every single trade verifiable on-chain. I've made the exact step-by-step guide to build this Claude Polymarket bot from scratch. You've been trading for 3 years. Still red. He gave Claude $313. Woke up rich. Free for 24 hours. To get this Setup guide: 1. Comment "Money" 2. Like and Retweet 3. Follow me Himanshu Kumar (so i can DM you) Full 2-hour video tutorial attached. Every single click and command explained. Beginner to running bot. Now let me break down exactly how this works. Save this post. This is the most important trading breakdown you'll ever read. ↓ Let's start with the number that should make you sick. $313. That's what this wallet started with. Not $50,000. Not $10,000. Not even $1,000. $313. Less than your monthly Netflix + Uber Eats + Spotify combined. 4 months later: $2,382,780.80. That's a 7,942x return. While you spent those same 4 months staring at charts, drawing trendlines, panic selling, revenge trading, and ending the month exactly where you started. Minus the $200 you lost on that "sure thing." Same 4 months. Same market. Same opportunities. He had a bot. You had feelings. Guess who won. Save this post right now. What I'm about to explain is the exact mechanism behind every dollar of that $2.38M. Follow Himanshu Kumar so you don't miss the rest. ↓ How Polymarket actually works and why bots print money on it. Polymarket is a prediction market. Will BTC be higher in 15 minutes? Yes or No. Will the Fed raise rates? Yes or No. You buy shares between $0 and $1. If you're right, your share settles at $1. If you're wrong, it settles at $0. Simple. Now here's where it gets interesting. Polymarket updates its prices SLOWER than the real market moves. When BTC drops 0.6% on Binance, Polymarket still shows old odds for about 2.7 seconds. 2.7 seconds. In those 2.7 seconds, the bot already knows the outcome. It's not predicting. It's not guessing. It's reading information that already exists and trading before Polymarket catches up. That's not trading. That's collecting free money with a 2.7 second head start. And you're over there using a 15-indicator TradingView setup trying to "predict" where BTC goes next. The bot doesn't predict anything. It just reads faster than you. That's the entire edge. Save this post because if you understand this one concept you understand how millionaires are being made on Polymarket right now. Follow Himanshu Kumar for more breakdowns like this. ↓ Let me walk you through one single trade. A new 15-minute BTC contract opens on Polymarket. Odds are 50/50. Fair price. 10 minutes in, BTC drops 0.6% on Binance. Hard, fast move. The real probability of BTC being lower at expiry is now about 78%. Polymarket still shows 54/46. The bot sees this instantly. Binance WebSocket feed. Under 50ms latency. The edge is 24 percentage points. On a binary contract, that's basically free money. Bot calculates position size using Kelly Criterion. Executes via Polymarket's API. Done. Within 2-3 seconds, other participants update the odds. 54/46 moves toward 78/22. Bot either exits for immediate profit or holds to resolution. Either way, the trade was entered with near-certainty of a positive outcome. Now repeat this 200-500 times per day. $313 → $2,382,780 in 4 months. Not magic. Not prediction. Not luck. Industrial-scale exploitation of a market inefficiency that still exists today. And you're still placing one manual trade per day and calling yourself a "trader." This is the mechanism behind every single dollar. Bookmark this post so you can study it again. Follow Himanshu Kumar because I'm breaking down each strategy separately. ↓ There are 4 strategies. Not all Claude bots do the same thing. Strategy 1: Latency Arbitrage. Win rate: 85-98%. What 0x8dxd used. Monitor Binance price feeds. When Polymarket odds lag behind reality by 3-5%, buy the correct side before the market corrects. No forecasting. No model. No sentiment analysis. Pure speed. You're not guessing. You're reading an outcome that has already happened. Strategy 2: Oracle Arbitrage. Win rate: 78-85%. Chainlink oracle price feeds occasionally diverge from Polymarket's implied prices. When they do, the settlement direction is known. Fewer opportunities. Higher certainty when they appear. Strategy 3: News-Driven Trading. Win rate: 60-75%. Claude ingests real-time news. Government filings. Central bank statements. On-chain data. Assesses probability impact before retail traders even finish reading the headline. Lower win rate because interpretation introduces uncertainty. But works on ANY market category, not just crypto. Strategy 4: Market Making. Return: 2-5% per month. Place buy and sell orders on both sides. Capture the spread. No prediction required. Most consistent. Hardest to blow up. Compounds aggressively over time. You didn't even know there were 4 strategies. You thought "trading bot" meant one thing. That's how far behind you are. 4 strategies. 4 different risk profiles. 4 ways to make money while you sleep. Save this post. Follow Himanshu Kumar for the deep dive into each one. ↓ The timeline that should haunt you. December 2025: Bot launches with $313. Nobody notices. January 6, 2026: Wallet hits ~$438,000. 140x in 30 days. 6,615 predictions. 98% win rate. Finbold reports it. Crypto Twitter explodes. March 10, 2026: Head-to-head test. Claude bot: $1,000 → $14,216 in 48 hours. +1,322%. OpenClaw bot: fully liquidated. Same market. Same timeframe. Claude won because of better risk management. OpenClaw died because it overleveraged. March 16, 2026: Someone trains a swarm model on 3 years of NBA data. Result: +$1.49M on Polymarket. April 2026: 0x8dxd final verified balance: $2,382,780.80. 26,738 trades. 4 months. This all happened while you were "waiting for the right time to start." The right time was December 2025. The second best time is right now. But you'll probably wait until it's too late. That's what you always do. Every date on this timeline is a day you could have started but didn't. Save this post. Follow Himanshu Kumar so you at least start today. ↓ Why Claude and not ChatGPT? This isn't opinion. It's data. March 2026 head-to-head: Claude bot: +1,322%. OpenClaw (GPT-based): liquidated. Same prompt. Same market. Same conditions. Researchers found Claude's code included: > More defensive edge cases > More conservative default parameters > Better error handling > More legible code for debugging > Proper Kelly Criterion position sizing > Hard drawdown kill switches ChatGPT's code overleveraged into a losing sequence and couldn't recover. Claude's code sized positions conservatively, stopped trading when drawdown thresholds hit, and survived to compound another day. The difference between +1,322% and liquidation wasn't the strategy. It was the risk management. And Claude writes better risk management than ChatGPT. That's not a debate. That's a $15,216 difference in 48 hours. But sure, keep using ChatGPT because "everyone uses it." Everyone's broke too. Coincidence? Stop using the popular tool. Start using the profitable one. Save this post. Follow Himanshu Kumar for more Claude vs ChatGPT comparisons with real data. ↓ Why humans lose to bots. Every single time. Same strategy. Same market. Same period. Bots: ~$206,000 profit. Humans: ~$100,000 profit. 2x gap. Same strategy. Here's why: 1. Late entries. By the time you identify the lag, verify your reasoning, and click buy, the 2.7 second window is gone. The bot executes in under 100ms. You execute in 30 seconds. The opportunity doesn't exist for 30 seconds. 2. Emotional sizing. You oversize when "confident." Undersize when scared. Exact opposite of Kelly math. The bot sizes based on edge. Every time. No feelings. 3. Fatigue. You make worse decisions at hour 6 than at hour 1. The bot makes the same decision at hour 72 that it made at hour 1. 4. Drawdown psychology. After 3 losses you either panic quit or double down trying to recover. Both destroy capital. The bot has a kill switch. It stops. It doesn't feel anything. You're not competing with other humans anymore. You're competing with machines that don't sleep, don't feel, don't flinch. And you're losing. The data doesn't lie. Humans lose to bots 2x on the same strategy. Save this post. Follow Himanshu Kumar for the complete bot setup that removes you from the equation. ↓ What can go wrong. Because I'm not going to lie to you. Most people who build this bot will NOT 7,942x their money. Some will lose their initial capital. Here's what can kill you: Edge compression. The arbitrage window was 12 seconds in 2024. It's 2.7 seconds now. It's shrinking. At some point it hits zero for retail operators. This is a time-limited opportunity. Not a permanent income stream. Rule changes. Polymarket can change contract mechanics, settlement rules, or API terms overnight. What worked yesterday can lose money tomorrow. Risk management bugs. A 98% win rate strategy with broken position sizing will blow up your account on the one losing trade. The March 2026 experiment proved this. Claude survived. OpenClaw got liquidated. Same strategy. Different risk management. That's why the 2-hour video tutorial walks through every single risk parameter. Because the strategy doesn't kill you. Bad risk management kills you. This is the section most "gurus" delete. I'm keeping it because I'd rather you make money safely than blow up and blame me. Save this post. Follow Himanshu Kumar for honest breakdowns, not hype. ↓ The step-by-step to build your own. Step 1: Set up a Polymarket wallet. Fund with USDC via Polygon network. Start with $100-$300 for testing. Step 2: Generate API credentials. CLOB API key from docs.polymarket .com. Store private key in environment variable. Never hardcode it. Never share it. Step 3: Prompt Claude to build the bot. Use Claude Code for best results. It reads your filesystem, executes code, and iterates on errors autonomously. Step 4: Paper trade for at least one week. Minimum 200 completed trades. Win rate must be above 70% before going live. This step is NOT optional. Step 5: Configure risk management. Max single position: 8% of portfolio. Daily loss limit: -20% with auto halt. Kill switch at -40% drawdown. Telegram alerts on every threshold. Step 6: Go live small. $1-5 per trade. Watch every trade for first week. Compare to paper results. Scale only on evidence. Skip steps 4 and 5 and you will lose your money. That's not a warning. That's a guarantee. This is your complete build guide. Save this post. Follow Himanshu Kumar because I'll be posting the exact Claude prompts for each strategy. ↓ The edge exists right now. Not next month. Not "when you're ready." Right now. The arbitrage window is 2.7 seconds. It was 12 seconds in 2024. It's shrinking every week. Every day you wait, more bots enter the space. The window gets smaller. Your potential returns get smaller. The bots already running have a compounding advantage. They're making money today that they'll use to make more money tomorrow. You're reading about it and telling yourself "I'll look into this next weekend." That's what you said last weekend. And the weekend before that. The best time to start was 6 months ago. The second best time is today. But you already know you're going to bookmark this and never open it again. Prove me wrong. ↓ Full 2-hour video tutorial attached. Every single click. Every command. Every parameter. From zero to running bot. Beginner friendly. Nothing skipped. A similar bot has already earned $2,382,780. Full blockchain proof in the article below. The video is free. The tools are free. The edge still exists. The only thing that costs money is another month of doing nothing while bots eat every opportunity you're too slow to catch. Follow Himanshu Kumar for the complete series covering every automated income stream using Claude. Prediction markets are just the beginning. Save this post. Bookmark it. Screenshot it. Whatever you need to do so you actually watch the video and build the bot instead of just reading about people who did. You Must Follow me Himanshu Kumar, so i can send you DM.

Himanshu Kumar

52,808 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

$ASTI Ascent Solar Technologies Space and Drone Solar Panels The "Going to Zero" or Mispriced Space/Drone Solar Play Intro and comparison to $RKLB and $RDW panels Let’s get the ugly stuff out of the way first. $ASTI is a distressed penny stock with a ~$5M-$10M market cap. • They burn millions in cash. • 2024 Revenue: ~$40k. 2025 Revenue (YTD): ~$60k. • They generate less revenue than a single Tesla Model Y. • They have diluted shareholders relentlessly. $ASTI just raised $2M in December with the potential of $3.5M more via warrants while being a ~$5M mcap "company". Yikes. To most, this is "uninvestable trash." Stay away. Full stop. So why did I buy ~5% of the float? IF the technology works and IF they execute then I believe this is a massive market pricing dislocation about to inflect. They have been grinding for years and may finally be hitting an inflection point. $RKLB Rocketlab is the king of space solar and they are my second largest position overall, but here is why $ASTI might be a very high risk but asymmetric bet in Space & Defense right now. 1. The Tech Pivot: Flexible CIGS vs. The World Ascent started in 2005 but pivoted 2 years ago from consumer to pure-play Space & Defense. They have sunk ~$250M and 20 years of R&D into proprietary CIGS (Copper-Indium-Gallium-Selenide) thin-film technology while building out fully domestic and vertically integrated manufacturing capabilities. The Physics: • Thickness: 0.03 mm (Thinner than paper). • Flexibility: Wraps around drones/satellites; rolls up like a poster. • Durability: "Self-Healing" capabilities against space radiation. Can take a bullet or micrometeoroid and keep working. Can handle shocks/vibration. Does not shatter. The Metric that Matters: Specific Power (W/kg) (aka energy to weight ratio) In space, mass means cost and difficult decision decisions. • Rocket Lab ($RKLB) / Spectrolab: ~150 W/kg (System level). • Ascent Solar ($ASTI): ~1,960 W/kg (Module level). $ASTI is roughly 10x lighter for the same power output potential (mass-wise). This frees up design limitations and cost. 2. The Competition: $RKLB & $RDW Rocket Lab (SolAero) & Redwire (iROSA): • Tech: Rigid Crystal Cells (Multi-junction) embedded in a fabric mesh. • Pros: Extreme Efficiency (~30%+). Perfect for limited surface area. • Cons: Heavy, Brittle, Expensive ($3k-$10k per Watt). Manufacturing multi-junction cells (SolAero) involves slowly growing crystals in a vacuum chamber. With radiation the panels degrade and loose efficiency over time which will limit the satellite lifespan. • Use Case: James Webb Telescope, Flagship missions. Ascent Solar (ASTI): • Tech: Flexible Thin-Film on Plastic. • Pros: Ultra-light, Durable, Cheap ($500-$1k per Watt). Manufacturing CIGS is roughly similar to printing newspapers (roll-to-roll). The panels are radiation degradation resistant and will outlive the satellite • Cons: Lower Efficiency (~17.5%). Requires 2x surface area. • Use Case: Mega-Constellations (Starlink/Amazon Leo), Small/Low cost satellites, Drones, Deformable surfaces. The lower efficiency is not an ASTI failing. It is the inherent physics trade-off of not using glass/rigid silicone. The downside however is increased atmospheric drag with very larger/massive panel sheets. Because ASTI modules are ~50% less efficient than rigid panels, they require ~2x the physical surface area to generate the same amount of power. In GEO (High Orbit): Drag doesn't matter. Weight savings are king. A massive solar array allows for more sensors and longer project lifespan. ASTI is highly competitive here. In LEO (Low Orbit): Atmospheric drag is real. A massive solar array acts like a large parachute, causing the satellite to de-orbit faster unless it burns more fuel to stay up. At LEO, smaller satellites are a better fit for ASTI. 3. Durability & Radiation "Self-Healing" Radiation Hardness This is ASTI's "Ace in the Hole" for physics. The Problem: In space, high-energy protons (radiation) smash into solar cells, creating atomic "defects" that trap electrons. Over time, this kills the panel's power output (degradation). The CIGS Advantage: CIGS (Copper-Indium-Gallium-Selenide) material has a unique property where heat (annealing) allows the atomic structure to relax and "heal" these defects. Self-Healing: Because CIGS heals at relatively low temperatures (often achieved just by the sun heating the panel), it suffers significantly less degradation than traditional Silicon or even some GaAs panels over long missions in high-radiation belts (like MEO or GEO). Lifespan: While a rigid GaAs panel might lose 15-20% of its power over 15 years (enough to kill a satellite), CIGS panels heal and can maintain a flatter power curve, potentially outlasting the satellite itself in high-radiation orbits. 4. Brittleness & Flexibility ASTI (CIGS on Polyimide): Flexible. You can roll it like a poster. It can take a bullet or micrometeoroid and the hole will just be a dead spot; the rest of the panel keeps working. It does not shatter. Redwire (ROSA) & Rocket Lab (SolAero): Brittle Cells on a Flex Blanket. $RDW's ROSA (Roll-Out Solar Array) typically uses rigid multi-junction cells (made by SolAero/Rocket Lab or Spectrolab) mounted on a flexible mesh fabric. The Risk: If you bend the cells too far, they crack. They rely on the mesh backing for flexibility, but the active generating material is still a brittle crystal wafer. Much heavier, more expensive, and less durable than $ASTI's option 5. The Inflection Point (Why Now?) After years of silent struggle, late 2025 has seen an explosion of activity. Recent Agreements (Nov/Dec 2025): NovaSpark: Hydrogen-powered military drones. $ASTI panels generate power in the field → NovaSpark creates hydrogen fuel. CisLunar Industries: Integrating ASTI solar with power conversion hardware for deep space longevity. Defiant Space: A strategic alliance to act as the "door opener" for classified DoD/NATO programs. More headlines: Ascent Solar Technologies Provides Leading Space Company with Thin-Film PV modules for Spacecraft Power Generation Testing in Cislunar Space December 03, 2025 08:00 ET Ascent Solar Technologies Delivers Thin-Film PV for Saltwater Environment Durability and Space-Based Power Beaming Testing October 14, 2025 08:00 ET Ascent Solar Enters Teaming Agreement with Emtel Energy USA to Advance Thin-Film PV Energy Storage Capabilities September 16, 2025 08:00 ET Ascent Solar Technologies Signs MOU with Star Catcher Industries to Improve Power Capabilities for Thin-Film Solar Technology in Space August 28, 2025 08:00 ET Ascent Solar Technologies Establishes Rapid Thin-Film PV Delivery Process to Provide Customized Space Solar Products Ahead of Schedule on Mission Enabling Timelines August 07, 2025 08:00 ET The Pipeline (From Aug Corporate Presentation) 18 new NDA's signed in 2025. They are field testing with 3 major players: • Company A: Mega-constellation (+2,500 satellites). • Company B: Space Defense (Explicitly mentioned "Golden Dome"). • Company C: Satellite Manufacturer (30-200 unit scale). Management: New board members include a former founding member of SpaceX and a retired Air Force General and Deputy Assistant Secretary for Contracting (acquisitions expert). The company started in 2005 based out of Colorado, but two years ago pivoted to Space & Defense and away from consumer applications. Made in USA: Defense contracts heavily favor domestic supply chains. ASTI manufactures in Colorado. This is a huge moat against cheap Chinese solar. In their Q3 report they note that their market has seen sudden recent acceleration. The space solar industry is currently only capable of 8 to 12 MW per year of production meanwhile the demand is growing to over 100 MW per year. 6. The Risk (The Sword of Damocles) ⚠️ This is critical. $ASTI just raised ~$2M in December. Attached to that raise are ~2 Million Warrants with a strike price of $1.70. These are exercisable immediately. If the stock rips to $3.00, warrant holders exercise at $1.70 and dump on the market for a risk-free 76% profit. This creates a massive "sell wall" and potential 40% dilution of the float. Summary: This is a binary bet. • Bear Case: They run out of cash in 6 months, dilution spirals, stock goes to $0. • Bull Case: They land one of the "Company A/B/C" contracts. Revenue jumps from $60k to projected $20M+ in 2026. The stock reprices from a "bankrupt penny stock" to a "critical defense/space supplier." I have gradually accumulated ~5% of the float. I am ready for it to go to zero. But if the space economy demands "Cheap, Light, and Durable," $ASTI is the only public pure-play. Disclaimer: This is a very high-risk microcap. Do your own due diligence. Not financial advice.

YeahDave

208,143 просмотров • 7 месяцев назад

My fellow Kenyans, Many of you have seen my recent posts about the deadly cancer that is corruption in our country. In my last post, I tried to paint a picture of the disconnect between our potential as a country and the economic circumstances we find ourselves in today, and the connection between corruption and the incalculable pain and suffering and cruelty that is meted out every single day to the most vulnerable among us by thieves operating out of public office. And after covering the goings-on in Mandera County, I told you that in my honest opinion, our governments exist to cater for the filthy-rich lifestyles of the vilest and most corrupt among us, at the expense of everyone else. I received tremendous support from all of you, for speaking on behalf of so many struggling Kenyans who don’t have a voice, or the audience necessary to spark the much-needed discussion about where we are heading as a country. But even with all that support, I have received messages asking me to be careful. One compatriot told me: “prepare to be relentlessly pursued, threatened, enticed, guilt-tripped, and gas-lit”. This is from a someone who knows how our government operates, and how it uses violence and its monopoly on power to silence those who question why politicians are stealing so much. I am not naive about the dangers of speaking up and calling out thieves who control state machinery, and who possess the ability to shut me up in a few seconds. But I will tell you why we CAN NOT and MUST NOT keep quiet. In November of 2023, I stumbled upon the story of a young man from Turkana, Calvin Esekon Esewit , who, despite scoring an A-, and getting an acceptance into medical school, spent two years not knowing whether his dreams of becoming a doctor would ever come true. I was moved by that story in a way that I can never adequately explain. I could not understand how it is possible that, in our country, a young man who appears to be every parent’s dream child can spend two years in limbo while we as a country possess the ability to invest in our best and brightest. And so, I spent weeks trying to chase down Calvin to see how I could help him attend college. After a lot of searching, I finally found Calvin, and by this time he had managed to get some help and is now in college. While this story has a great ending, it did not to be this way. And we know that the number of cases that end like this, with some success, are a small fraction of those ones which end tragically, with broken dreams. This is what happens when corruption consumes anything and everything in a country. It destroys lives. See attached video to learn about Calvin's story. I tell you all this story because it provides context to today's topic. For one story like this one that you see on the news, there are millions that never make the news. But they are real situations, nonetheless. There are millions of your compatriots who are devastated by this killer cancer of corruption that is perpetuated by people that you and I have put into public office ostensibly to improve our lives. They go into these offices and abuse the trust you bestowed upon them and deny you and everyone else a decent opportunity in life. You see, Calvin and millions of other victims of this shameless level of corruption and plunder have no voice, and no real ability to look the thieves that are destroying lives and generations of Kenyans in eye and tell them to stop this unbearable pain and the cruelty. This is the reason I embarked on this journey to attempt to expose this shameful situation. Watch the attached video of Calvin’s situation, and I am sure that you will agree that the millions of Calvins in our country need a voice, NO MATTER THE RISK. The thieves that are destroying the futures of millions of children just so they can have beachside homes in Miami, Dubai and other places count on the idea that most people will fear for their lives, and therefore not speak up. They count on the growing apathy in the Kenyan psyche. But we cannot give in to that. We cannot cower to thieves. We must look them straight in the eye and tell them that they MUST STOP. If we don't, our children and their children are guaranteed the same level of cruelty. And so with that, today I want to talk about the utterly insane crime scene that is Turkana County. I don’t know any other way to describe it, other than, it is a “shit-show”. Just follow along, and let me know if you disagree. As I did in my previous commentary, I will ask you to indulge me a little bit, and allow me to use a couple of pictures, because pictures speak louder than a thousand words. The first picture shows the state-of-the art County Government offices, that the County Government of Turkana decided to invest an ungodly amount of money on. Close to a billion shillings. The second picture is a classroom in session. In Turkana County. These two realities are occurring in parallel in the same county, at the same time. Ladies and gentlemen, let me just tell you that I do not go out of my way to find bad news. I want stories that would help re-affirm our belief in the fundamental decency of human beings. When I find good news as I review these Counties’ decisions and how they behave with our resources, I will be the first one to report it to you. But I don’t have any good news today. I have bad news. If you read my commentary yesterday and were offended by what you saw, I am afraid you might not make it to the end of this article, because what you will hear will be quite shocking. The cancer of corruption, particularly at the County Government level, is worse than your wildest imagination. And so, as I like to do, I like to start off by putting some numbers on the table for us to use as reference points. Bear in my that all the information I put in this article is publicly available. Nothing came to me through a whistle blower. The first number is KSH 100 Billion. With a B. In the last decade or so, you and I, through the National Government, has sent over KSH 100 billion to Turkana County. To support recurrent expenditure, and development. For example, in the 2022-2023 fiscal year, we sent KSH 12.6 billion. In the 2021-2022 fiscal year, we sent KSH 11.4 billion. And on and on and on. The second number is 1 million. This is the population of Turkana County. The third number is KSH 18.4 billion. This was Turkana County’s budget for the 2022-2023 fiscal year. The fourth number is KSH 190 million. This was the amount of money that Turkana County was able to generate on its own accord within the county, from all its investments and other activities in the period in question. This number is an important proxy, in my view, for the value of the county’s economic prospects for the foreseeable future, and to people that are not driven by greed and corruption, would be an important consideration when they are thinking about how and where to deploy your money as taxpayers. If you are doing the math, Turkana County, for the 2022-2023 fiscal year, was only able to raise 1% of the funds needed to keep the lights on. 99% came from you and I, and a tiny amount from grants. The next number is KSH 129, 040. This is the average ANNUAL [emphasis added] income of a resident of Turkana County ( Keep that number in mind when we are discussing the massive theft of public funds by Turkana County leaders. The next number is 80%. 80% of the residents of Turkana County live below the poverty line. They have a really difficult time putting food on the table. ( The next number is KSH 12 Million. This is the basic salary of the Governor of Turkana County before other benefits that, as I explained yesterday, can often double the salary. Remember the “housing allowance”, the “hardship allowance”, the “commuter allowance”, the “risk allowance”, the “extraneous allowance”, etc.? Remember that? I still cannot figure out, for the life of me, what “extraneous” means in the context of County business, but we don’t time to dwell on this. The next number is 93. The Governor of Turkana County makes 93 times the average Turkana County resident’s annual income. 93 times! The next number is 82%. This was the percentage of people that were illiterate in Turkana County in 2013 ( Could not read or write. A point to note about the above literacy figure. Ten years later, and despite over KSH 100 billion is spent in Turkana County, including many billions for education, that literacy rate HAS NOT CHANGED ONE BIT. Only 20% of the population can read or write today. ( KSH 829 million. This is how much it cost to build the County Government offices. Yes, the ones shown in the first picture. KSH 120 million. The County Government decided that it was prudent to pay a contractor KSH 120 million to construct the Governor’s personal residence. Get this, even after this payment, no construction took place. The money was stolen. All of it. KSH 90 Million. This is the amount that the County Government paid to another contractor, to build the Governor a mansion, having previously lost KSH 120 million. So, the tally for the Governor’s residence now stands at KSH 210 million. Never mind that the limit allowed by law is KSH 45 million. KSH 5 billion. In the last days of his term in office, an outgoing Governor of Turkana, Koli Nanok, EGH. , sought to inflate pending bills by adding KSH 5 billion so that it can be paid to his criminal cartel. KSH 5 billion. We have our key numbers, ladies and gentlemen, so let us discuss. So, we have a county that is dead last in literacy, and in the top 2 of the poorest counties in the republic. Only 20% of the population can read. The Governor earns 92 times the average citizen. The Governor lives in a house that cost over KSH 200 million. When he leaves his house in the morning, he goes to his office that cost KSH 829 million. And this is all happening when 80% of the County residents struggle to put food on the table. Those are the facts, and they are not in dispute. During the same time, the County Government geniuses decide to build the Speaker of the County Assembly a house. And a home office, and a garage. The house was initially estimated to cost KSH 75 million. But due to circumstances that not a soul in the government could explain to auditors, the contract expired before the house was completed, and the County Government found a new contractor to complete the job for an additional KSH 29 million. But this palace in the jungle worth apparently worth over KSH 100 million in Turkana County was not enough. The County proceeded to build the Speaker a guest house for another KSH 19 million, and a few other amenities, and so the whole cost went to KSH 276 million! The legal limit for a Speaker’s house is KSH 35 million, and they spent close to KSH 130 million just for one residence. By this time, I am sure you are getting tired of these obscene numbers. You and I work, and pay taxes. Nobody pays you 92 times the income your average neighbor is making. And for sure nobody will drop KSH 100 million to build you a house. These are the perks of working in government in a poor country. Go figure. And so, as a country, we need to answer for ourselves the question I posed yesterday, which is, what is the point of government? What is its role in our lives. If this level of criminality and pillaging can occur in our country in the midst of so much poverty, questioning the need for government is a totally valid question. I said in my last post that, when the average citizen looks at the thug on the street and the government, and is unable to discern any meaningful difference between them, that society from that point on is on its journey to becoming a failed state. A journey to anarchy. Over the last two months or so, Kenyans have been shouting at the top of their lungs, begging for their government to listen. To hear them out. Kenyans have asked that their government stop this unbelievable level of plunder. Dozens of Kenyans have died, thousands injured, and many more are missing today. To this day, the people that govern us continue to use the power of the gun to subdue Kenyans, until they can take everything in their sight. And so, as a society, we all have to ask whether today there is any difference between the thug on the street and our governments. Every Kenyan will have to answer this question for themselves. And before answering this question, everyone needs to remember the many Calvins in our society. Smart, upright children whose only crime is to be born in an unforgiving, lawless, and corrupt purgatory that is Kenya today. For myself, I have concluded that there is no difference between the thug on the street and our governments, county and national alike. If you can see any meaningful difference, let me know. I am willing to listen. So despite over KSH 100 billion in money sent to Turkana County, there is almost no measurable improvement in people’s life today. None. And it makes sense, when you look at how that money is spent. I want you to forget for a second the obscene obsession by the County Government with spending ungodly amounts of money on themselves. The houses, etc. If you step back and look at how the government is actually spending the hard-earned money on other things, you will be depressed. I am telling you that I wept three times in the middle of the night trying to make sense of this crazy situation in Turkana County. Three times. I have never imagined that human beings can be so greedy and cold-blooded. Think about this: In the couple of years I reviewed, the County spent around KSH 400 million annually in “tourism” initiatives, including marketing, and apparently upgrading certain facilities. KSH 400 million for tourism. In Turkana County. In 1 year. KSH 400 million per year in marketing and other money pits. The government’s own website says that the county gets around 3000 visitors per month. Around 36,000 per year. That’s them saying that, on their website. Are you curious to know the return on that KSH 400 million investment? I have an answer for you. Remember that I told you that the County has never raised more than KSH 200 million in a year within the county, despite its KSH 18.4 billion budget? Let me walk you through the breakdown of the absolutely embarrassing shit-show that is the County Government’s “own source revenue” operations. In 2022-2023, the County Government collected KSH 190 million locally against their KSH 18.4 billion budget. 1% of the budget. Remember, there is absolutely no requirement on the County to cut costs, or achieve certain local revenue targets today. So they raised KSH 45 million in single business permits, KSH 72 million in CESS, KSH 8 million in market fee, KSH 9 million in “slaughter fees”. And then finally, there is the return on the tourism investment that you were looking for. A whopping KSH 209, 000 in “park fees”. KSH 209,000 in fees, after investing KSH 400 million. And so, take this as an example and extrapolate it across the entire budget, and you can see how one can spend KSH 100 billion and get NOTHING in return. You don’t need to be a genius to see the absurdity of this situation. Let me explain using an example that should illustrate the utter dimwittedness of this situation. Remember the KSH 100 billion sent to Turkana by you and me? Part of this amount is supposed to be for “service delivery”, or “recurrent expenditure”. Usually about 70% of the budget. The balance, 30%, is designed to go to development projects. With that in mind, from KSH 100 billion, the County apparently has made KSH 30 billion worth of investments, right? 30% of the KSH 100 billion. Now, if you employed someone to run a business for you, and they asked you to invest KSH 30 billion, which is no small fortune, at some point you would have to start seeing returns, right? That’s common sense, isn’t it? So, when we look at the revenues streams that make up this paltry sum of KSH 190 million, and see things like “slaughter fees’ and “market fees”, what does it tell you? It tells me there is no real “development” happening in that county. Trust me, if you had real development totaling KSH 30 billion, you would have corporate taxes in the hundreds of millions or billions, a booming real estate market, rising wages and standards of living, etc., low unemployment, etc. You would not have 80% of the people living hand-to mouth, and a County Government that can not afford to support itself for 5 days out of the year that has 365 days! We do not have enough time, trust me, to deal with the shit-show that is Turkana County. Dealing with that mess would require a forensic team. I will just highlight a few of other “in your-face” type of theft of public funds, and then conclude my submission. A government that has a budget of KSH 18.4 billion annually, and which has never raised more than 1% of its budget had the wisdom to do the following with your money: · Spend KSH 222 million on a project building something that NOBODY uses. You got that right. They spent KSH 222 million on a facility that NOBODY uses. KSH 222 million gone to waste, in a county that is dead last in pretty much all measures of human progress. · Remember the County Government offices that cost KSH 829 million? The County spent KSH 82 million on “air-conditioning” for that building. · Despite the County Spending hundreds of millions for the top three officers of the County, the Governor and his Deputy, in the 2022-2023 year, illegally charged the county (you and I) KSH 2.2 million in housing allowance! · Built two facilities for KSH 16 million, that were completed, but NOBODY uses them. · Entered into a contract for the construction of a plastic use facility for KSH 13 million in 2021. The contractor gets paid KSH 4.9 million, and has never been seen since. · Paid out KSH 62 million in salaries that were not supportable in just one year. They could not point to anybody and say, that is who we paid. · Paid out KSH 27 million in legal fees that nobody could say what they related to. And the County’s Legal Advisor, who, in 2022-2023, had a budget of KSH 123 million, apparently did not know anything about it! · Had an outstanding bill at Kenya Revenue Authority in the amount of KSH 486 million, that did not show up on the County Government’s financial statements. Think about that. KSH 486 million owned to the Kenya Revenue Authority, and that liability is not on the financial statements! This only means that someone took those funds for themselves, which is why the liability would be missing from the county’s books. · Could not account for KSH 367 million in expenditures for 2022-2023. KSH 367 million, in unexplained expenses. · Awarded a contract worth over KSH 200 million to a bidder with no bank statement, against the law. This contract was entered into and approved before the statutory time after the bidding process lapsed. Someone was in a hurry to get paid. KSH 200 million, illegally awarded to a bidder who did not have a 6-month bank statement. · Apparently purchased KSH 1.5 billion in assets in 2022-2023, but kept no records of the said assets. For this reason, NOBODY can verify where these assets are located. KSH 1.5 billion. Let me just say this. In my last article, the most common critique was that it was too long. Too many words. I did not intend to make another long article. Trust me when I tell you this, we do not have the time to detail half of the problems in Turkana County. For just 1 year! We do not. Now, you recall my point about how societies descend to madness and anarchy. In our country today, our leaders are accusing those of us who are agitating for honest and transparent governance of being traitors to the country. They call us anarchists, criminals, and merchants of chaos. They are questioning our patriotism. You have all seen the government and its horde of propagandists threatening the Ford Foundation and others because they may have helped civil society keep the lights on, and investigative journalists to have the capacity to continue to do the Lord’s work of investigating criminality in government. As though citizens are so dumb and ignorant, that they cannot see what is going on. The reason why millions of Calvins in this country will never graduate from college and earn a decent living is not because of the Ford Foundation. No. It is because of the thieves we have in office today, like the ones in Turkana County. In this post, I copy our leaders, the President and his deputy. I copy them because I want them to help Kenyans understand the following conundrum, about crime and criminals. There is nothing so special or peculiar about criminals or where they pop up. There are criminals in the US, Canada, France, and other places. Just like we have criminals in Kenya. The difference between banana republics and failed states, and civilized societies, is WHAT we do to and about criminals. In civilized societies, criminals are prosecuted and punished heavily. They are shunned. In some places, those charged with serious crimes such as corruption are executed. These are societies that are committed to sending the message that corruption, which robs citizens of their rights, is not acceptable. And they demonstrate this commitment by heavily punishing those who steal from the most vulnerable in society. In Kenya, we see the opposite. Criminals are exalted. They are promoted and embraced in government. It was just last week that the president unveiled his nominees for his Cabinet. Among them, are the likes of Hassan Ali Joho, EGH. , @GovWOparanya , and Davis Chirchir, ALL people who have been accused or charged with massive corruption against Kenyans. And am sure you remember that I mentioned Koli Nanok, EGH. , the man who tried to steal KSH 5 billion in his last days in office. Would you believe it if I told you that he works in government, at State House? He plunded billions of your money, got no measurable improvement in the lives of his subjects, and now has a government job in State House. Let that sink in. And so, the question is, how is it that in a country of 55 million people, with thousands of highly qualified people who have never ever stolen from Kenyans, he ends up with the criminals and thieves in the government, despite the fact that their crimes are in the public domain? How is this possible? Is it possible that these thieves possess a certain unique ability to run government, save Kenyans billions, and solve problems in a way that the president performs a cost-benefit analysis, and the benefits outweigh the costs of their theft? If not, what message does it send to Kenyans, when their own president puts into office known thieves? I think that is a fair question, don’t you? Dr. Ekuru Aukot Rigathi Gachagua William Samoei Ruto, PhD Okiya Omtatah Okoiti Citizen TV Kenya Nation Breaking News TI-Kenya CNN County Government of Turkana

Bonnie Mwangi, CPA, LLM, MBA

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