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🇺🇸 Prediction markets could start deciding elections instead of just predicting them. The danger is the feedback loop: a political narrative moves the betting markets → the movement becomes news → perceived momentum brings attention, credibility and potentially funding → that momentum can begin influencing the race the market...

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Mario Nawfal

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21,534 görüntüleme • 2 saat önce •via X (Twitter)

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People really need to stop using the betting market as a poll, because the truth is the betting market this far out is never going to be accurate for multiple reasons. Number one: A lot of people make bets on emotions, not data. Number two: It’s incredibly easy to manipulate the market for pump and dumps. Number three: It’s even easier for people with a lot of money who want to control the narrative to manipulate the market for political messaging. The bottom line is, the most accurate a betting market is when it comes to political candidates, is the day of the election, and the further out from Election Day it is, the more inaccurate it will be.
2:58

People really need to stop using the betting market as a poll, because the truth is the betting market this far out is never going to be accurate for multiple reasons. Number one: A lot of people make bets on emotions, not data. Number two: It’s incredibly easy to manipulate the market for pump and dumps. Number three: It’s even easier for people with a lot of money who want to control the narrative to manipulate the market for political messaging. The bottom line is, the most accurate a betting market is when it comes to political candidates, is the day of the election, and the further out from Election Day it is, the more inaccurate it will be.

The Misfit Patriot

34,178 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

David Friedberg's forecast for 2026: Prediction markets become the news “I think Polymarket's evolved from being kind of this one-off quirky prediction market to actually really providing insights into current events and the news in a way that none of us anticipated.” “And I do expect that after the deal we saw with NYSE, that all of the exchanges, and we're already seeing this with Robinhood and Coinbase, and we should expect something from Nasdaq this year … but I do think that prediction markets could become not just markets, but also news.” “And I think Polymarket’s just in such a position to have a breakout year.”
0:36

David Friedberg's forecast for 2026: Prediction markets become the news “I think Polymarket's evolved from being kind of this one-off quirky prediction market to actually really providing insights into current events and the news in a way that none of us anticipated.” “And I do expect that after the deal we saw with NYSE, that all of the exchanges, and we're already seeing this with Robinhood and Coinbase, and we should expect something from Nasdaq this year … but I do think that prediction markets could become not just markets, but also news.” “And I think Polymarket’s just in such a position to have a breakout year.”

The All-In Podcast

78,434 görüntüleme • 8 ay önce

When I was 8 years old, growing up in Taipei, I called my aunt in San Francisco and asked: What is the best science and technology school in the world? She said MIT. I went on the internet, found it, and decided that was where I was going. All because of a Steven Spielberg movie about a little robot boy who wanted to find his mom. I grew up as an only child. What stayed with me from that movie was not just the technology. It was the possibility that one day, an artificial companion could understand how I felt. That was the first time I remember being moved by a technology that could change how humans experience reality. Years later, I did get to MIT. I studied AI before it became obvious. I became a machine learning engineer, built my first company, joined a $3.5B VC fund, left to build again, failed, started again, moved to New York alone, and built through one of the hardest crypto markets as a solo founder after the collapse of FTX. I kept going because I have always been drawn to technologies that change how humans understand the world. AI was the first version of that. Crypto and prediction markets are the next. I believe the future I am building toward is inevitable. The only question is whether I get to be one of the people who helps realize it. That future is a world where markets become information-first. The old model of trading was asset-first. It rewarded people with capital, financial education, institutional access, and better tools. But the next generation of markets will be shaped by information flow, narrative, attention, politics, culture, sentiment, and collective belief. Prediction markets make this shift obvious. They are one of the first asset classes where the value is informational, not purely financial in the traditional sense. Your edge does not have to come from technical analysis or a traditional finance background. Your edge can come from knowing something before it becomes consensus. From seeing reality shift before the market prices it in. Someone with firsthand knowledge of an unfolding event can have more alpha than an institution with a much bigger balance sheet. They turn belief into price. But price alone is not enough. Polymarket shows what the market thinks will happen. ARES is built to understand why the market is changing. We are building an information-first trading platform for prediction markets and other narrative-driven assets. One that does not just show traders what is moving, but helps them understand why odds are shifting, why narratives are forming, and why the future is moving in a certain direction. But the bigger vision is not just a better trading terminal. We want to turn every trade into an information object. Every position can become a piece of content. Every market view can become a signal. Every trader can build a reputation around conviction and accuracy. Most feeds rank information by engagement. Who got the most likes. Who already has the biggest audience. Markets allow us to rank information differently. How much are you willing to stake on what you believe? How often have you been right? That creates a fundamentally different kind of media feed. One powered by conviction, track record, and market incentives. One that becomes harder to fake. One that can help people understand not just what the market thinks will happen, but why reality is changing. I also believe prediction markets are one of the few markets where humans can still have a real edge over AI. AI knows what is already on the internet. But humans experience reality before it becomes data. We see things before they become headlines. We hear things before they become reports. We feel shifts before they become consensus. If those signals can be priced, organized, and made legible, then more people can gain access to financial opportunity, information agency, and power. That is what Ares is building toward. I spent years watching founders from the VC side of the table, always thinking: I wish that was me. Now it is. I talked about this journey and the thesis behind Ares in my conversation with Dmitry on Predict Time If you are building, trading, investing, or thinking deeply about prediction markets and information markets, I would love for you to watch it. And if you want to collaborate on what we are building, contribute to the vision, or join the team, we are always open to exceptional people across functions. DMs are open.
1:42:20

When I was 8 years old, growing up in Taipei, I called my aunt in San Francisco and asked: What is the best science and technology school in the world? She said MIT. I went on the internet, found it, and decided that was where I was going. All because of a Steven Spielberg movie about a little robot boy who wanted to find his mom. I grew up as an only child. What stayed with me from that movie was not just the technology. It was the possibility that one day, an artificial companion could understand how I felt. That was the first time I remember being moved by a technology that could change how humans experience reality. Years later, I did get to MIT. I studied AI before it became obvious. I became a machine learning engineer, built my first company, joined a $3.5B VC fund, left to build again, failed, started again, moved to New York alone, and built through one of the hardest crypto markets as a solo founder after the collapse of FTX. I kept going because I have always been drawn to technologies that change how humans understand the world. AI was the first version of that. Crypto and prediction markets are the next. I believe the future I am building toward is inevitable. The only question is whether I get to be one of the people who helps realize it. That future is a world where markets become information-first. The old model of trading was asset-first. It rewarded people with capital, financial education, institutional access, and better tools. But the next generation of markets will be shaped by information flow, narrative, attention, politics, culture, sentiment, and collective belief. Prediction markets make this shift obvious. They are one of the first asset classes where the value is informational, not purely financial in the traditional sense. Your edge does not have to come from technical analysis or a traditional finance background. Your edge can come from knowing something before it becomes consensus. From seeing reality shift before the market prices it in. Someone with firsthand knowledge of an unfolding event can have more alpha than an institution with a much bigger balance sheet. They turn belief into price. But price alone is not enough. Polymarket shows what the market thinks will happen. ARES is built to understand why the market is changing. We are building an information-first trading platform for prediction markets and other narrative-driven assets. One that does not just show traders what is moving, but helps them understand why odds are shifting, why narratives are forming, and why the future is moving in a certain direction. But the bigger vision is not just a better trading terminal. We want to turn every trade into an information object. Every position can become a piece of content. Every market view can become a signal. Every trader can build a reputation around conviction and accuracy. Most feeds rank information by engagement. Who got the most likes. Who already has the biggest audience. Markets allow us to rank information differently. How much are you willing to stake on what you believe? How often have you been right? That creates a fundamentally different kind of media feed. One powered by conviction, track record, and market incentives. One that becomes harder to fake. One that can help people understand not just what the market thinks will happen, but why reality is changing. I also believe prediction markets are one of the few markets where humans can still have a real edge over AI. AI knows what is already on the internet. But humans experience reality before it becomes data. We see things before they become headlines. We hear things before they become reports. We feel shifts before they become consensus. If those signals can be priced, organized, and made legible, then more people can gain access to financial opportunity, information agency, and power. That is what Ares is building toward. I spent years watching founders from the VC side of the table, always thinking: I wish that was me. Now it is. I talked about this journey and the thesis behind Ares in my conversation with Dmitry on Predict Time If you are building, trading, investing, or thinking deeply about prediction markets and information markets, I would love for you to watch it. And if you want to collaborate on what we are building, contribute to the vision, or join the team, we are always open to exceptional people across functions. DMs are open.

Morgan Lai

302,663 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

$HOOD My thoughts on the Robinhood election betting market news today: - Kalshi is proving the demand for this market is huge - I don't think $HOOD cares about the election but rather using this event as a test to see if they can launch a larger predictions market - The rate of innovation here is just incredible with this coming out 2 weeks after futures, index options, and the new desktop app - The people critiquing this move largely are missing the innovation in betting markets that's happening right now, EVERYTHING about the elections this cycle have changed in regards to media/polling because of these prediction markets and it seems that major events outside of the election will also have bids and asks for people who want to participate in it -- as a result, Robinhood may capitalize on that market
9:24

$HOOD My thoughts on the Robinhood election betting market news today: - Kalshi is proving the demand for this market is huge - I don't think $HOOD cares about the election but rather using this event as a test to see if they can launch a larger predictions market - The rate of innovation here is just incredible with this coming out 2 weeks after futures, index options, and the new desktop app - The people critiquing this move largely are missing the innovation in betting markets that's happening right now, EVERYTHING about the elections this cycle have changed in regards to media/polling because of these prediction markets and it seems that major events outside of the election will also have bids and asks for people who want to participate in it -- as a result, Robinhood may capitalize on that market

amit

48,733 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

IF YOU TRADE PREDICTION MARKETS EVERY DAY you probably need a terminal instead of another prediction market app Predict Parity puts polymarket, polymarket us into one professional trading interface where you can search markets by category, volume, liquidity and odds. weather markets are a perfect example because i can scan the most liquid opportunities, save the markets i want to watch and trade without jumping between platforms. then i can do the same with traders by finding profitable weather wallets, bookmarking them and tracking their next moves. polymarket traders use one terminal for prediction markets, market discovery, trader tracking and execution. Parity is FREE to use and much cleaner than trading from a bunch of separate tabs. Enter to Parity only with invite access: Claim invite ➔
2:02

IF YOU TRADE PREDICTION MARKETS EVERY DAY you probably need a terminal instead of another prediction market app Predict Parity puts polymarket, polymarket us into one professional trading interface where you can search markets by category, volume, liquidity and odds. weather markets are a perfect example because i can scan the most liquid opportunities, save the markets i want to watch and trade without jumping between platforms. then i can do the same with traders by finding profitable weather wallets, bookmarking them and tracking their next moves. polymarket traders use one terminal for prediction markets, market discovery, trader tracking and execution. Parity is FREE to use and much cleaner than trading from a bunch of separate tabs. Enter to Parity only with invite access: Claim invite ➔

PolySuccubus

25,800 görüntüleme • 25 gün önce

MacFarlane: Trump has acknowledged over the past 48 hours that prices are going to go higher again because of the renewed fighting in the Middle East. And that’s a big problem for him and a big problem for Republicans on the ballot in November. Because Trump is already underwater when it comes to prices and the economy. And if prices go higher as we get closer to an election, that’s not just underwater. It’s like the S.S. Minnow crashing onto the island, and Gilligan, the Skipper, the Howells, Ginger, and Mary Ann have no political lifeboats. They are stuck on that ship as it crashes. For his party, Trump is creating political danger with the war in Iran and with his higher prices.
0:42

MacFarlane: Trump has acknowledged over the past 48 hours that prices are going to go higher again because of the renewed fighting in the Middle East. And that’s a big problem for him and a big problem for Republicans on the ballot in November. Because Trump is already underwater when it comes to prices and the economy. And if prices go higher as we get closer to an election, that’s not just underwater. It’s like the S.S. Minnow crashing onto the island, and Gilligan, the Skipper, the Howells, Ginger, and Mary Ann have no political lifeboats. They are stuck on that ship as it crashes. For his party, Trump is creating political danger with the war in Iran and with his higher prices.

Acyn

83,005 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

⚽ The 2026 FIFA World Cup is shaping up to be more than just the biggest football tournament ever organized, it could also become a defining moment for the growth of prediction markets globally. ⚽🌍 With more countries participating, more matches being played, and billions of fans actively following every stage of the tournament, the amount of real time engagement around outcomes, trends, and public sentiment will likely increase massively. Events of this scale naturally create the perfect environment for prediction based ecosystems to thrive. That’s one reason why Pots Market feels especially interesting right now. Instead of positioning itself as just another betting platform, the project appears to be exploring something much broader, combining prediction markets, on chain liquidity, and community driven insights into a more interactive ecosystem. The social layer around collective forecasting and market participation could become just as valuable as the predictions themselves. What also makes Pots Money stand out is the way it connects DeFi infrastructure with events that already attract global attention organically. Rather than forcing users into complicated financial systems, it brings Web3 mechanics into spaces people are already emotionally invested in like football, tournaments, global narratives, and crowd sentiment. You suddenly have sports culture, market psychology, liquidity movement, and community participation all existing within the same ecosystem. As major global events continue to merge with blockchain based participation models, prediction markets may slowly evolve into one of the clearest and strongest real world applications of Web3 technology. And if adoption continues growing at this pace, the 2026 World Cup might end up becoming one of the biggest catalysts the prediction market sector has seen so far. Pots Money Pots Market
5:47

⚽ The 2026 FIFA World Cup is shaping up to be more than just the biggest football tournament ever organized, it could also become a defining moment for the growth of prediction markets globally. ⚽🌍 With more countries participating, more matches being played, and billions of fans actively following every stage of the tournament, the amount of real time engagement around outcomes, trends, and public sentiment will likely increase massively. Events of this scale naturally create the perfect environment for prediction based ecosystems to thrive. That’s one reason why Pots Market feels especially interesting right now. Instead of positioning itself as just another betting platform, the project appears to be exploring something much broader, combining prediction markets, on chain liquidity, and community driven insights into a more interactive ecosystem. The social layer around collective forecasting and market participation could become just as valuable as the predictions themselves. What also makes Pots Money stand out is the way it connects DeFi infrastructure with events that already attract global attention organically. Rather than forcing users into complicated financial systems, it brings Web3 mechanics into spaces people are already emotionally invested in like football, tournaments, global narratives, and crowd sentiment. You suddenly have sports culture, market psychology, liquidity movement, and community participation all existing within the same ecosystem. As major global events continue to merge with blockchain based participation models, prediction markets may slowly evolve into one of the clearest and strongest real world applications of Web3 technology. And if adoption continues growing at this pace, the 2026 World Cup might end up becoming one of the biggest catalysts the prediction market sector has seen so far. Pots Money Pots Market

Chioma Chukwurah ⚛️🥷⚔️

18,702 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

Debunking Coffeezilla’s prediction market claims In his recent video “prediction markets aren’t just gambling,” Coffeezilla made the three untrue or misleading claims below: 1) “The only way you get the news early, by the way, is if it’s insider trading.” 2) “All these prediction markets are doing is aggregating sentiment on the news.” 3) “The only way you can get something not in the news from these markets is if someone with non-news information trades, which is AKA inside information.” I want to start by saying that I’ve really enjoyed Coffeezilla’s content in the past, and I appreciate him blacking out my name in the tweet he screenshared. I also watched the full video and agreed with parts of it (and disagreed with other parts). That said, these three claims are egregiously incorrect, and I want to correct the record. I hope Coffeezilla reads this and reconsiders these points 1) “The only way you get the news early, by the way, is if it’s insider trading.” Merriam-Webster defines insider trading as “the illegal use of information available only to insiders in order to make a profit in financial trading.” This claim is wrong because it is clearly possible to get information early in entirely legal ways. For example, in CPI inflation markets, someone might notice prices rising on goods they regularly buy, or a sophisticated trader might aggregate pricing data across many products and form a forecast before the CPI release. Journalists may later report on inflation, but the information existed beforehand. Markets also react faster to sudden events, like a Trump Truth Social post or an earthquake, than journalists do. Traders are financially incentivized to react in seconds; journalists are not. Recent high-profile examples include Nobel Peace Prize, Spotify, and Time POTY markets, where traders had information before the news broke. In the Nobel case, there was disinformation claiming insider trading, but as far as most observers can tell, the information was obtained legally via web-scraping. Even if the Nobel Committee disliked it, legally obtained information is fair game. 2) “All these prediction markets are doing is aggregating sentiment on the news.” This is easy to debunk. Prediction markets do aggregate information, but not merely sentiment or headlines. That’s likely why CNN and CNBC partnered with Kalshi. News is filtered through editors, incentives, and bias. Taking headlines at face value is not a winning trading strategy. Savvy traders treat news as one input among many variables. If a headline says “Poll X shows Clinton up 10 points,” markets may adjust, but they don’t blindly price the headline. They factor in other variables. I’d argue markets are often smarter than the news. Domer❤️‍🔥 has even argued that Fed markets on Kalshi are more accurate than CME due to traders like himself making them more efficient, and I think he’s right. 3) “The only way you can get something not in the news from these markets is if someone with non-news information trades, which is AKA inside information.” Merriam-Webster defines insider information as “information not known to the public that one has obtained by virtue of being an insider.” You can obtain non-news information without being an insider. This overlaps with point one, but here’s a concrete example. For the recent TN-07 special election, I traveled to TN-07 and spoke with voters leaving early-voting sites and with everyday residents. I learned how little awareness there was that a special election was even happening, and how voters were thinking about the race. That information wasn’t in the news, but it informed how I traded. I’m not an insider. This was “alpha hunting” through firsthand observation. Almost every serious prediction market trader has similar stories. This is certainly not "insider trading." I’m genuinely curious to hear your thoughts, Coffeezilla, and hope for a good-faith dialogue. I hope you are doing well!
0:24

Debunking Coffeezilla’s prediction market claims In his recent video “prediction markets aren’t just gambling,” Coffeezilla made the three untrue or misleading claims below: 1) “The only way you get the news early, by the way, is if it’s insider trading.” 2) “All these prediction markets are doing is aggregating sentiment on the news.” 3) “The only way you can get something not in the news from these markets is if someone with non-news information trades, which is AKA inside information.” I want to start by saying that I’ve really enjoyed Coffeezilla’s content in the past, and I appreciate him blacking out my name in the tweet he screenshared. I also watched the full video and agreed with parts of it (and disagreed with other parts). That said, these three claims are egregiously incorrect, and I want to correct the record. I hope Coffeezilla reads this and reconsiders these points 1) “The only way you get the news early, by the way, is if it’s insider trading.” Merriam-Webster defines insider trading as “the illegal use of information available only to insiders in order to make a profit in financial trading.” This claim is wrong because it is clearly possible to get information early in entirely legal ways. For example, in CPI inflation markets, someone might notice prices rising on goods they regularly buy, or a sophisticated trader might aggregate pricing data across many products and form a forecast before the CPI release. Journalists may later report on inflation, but the information existed beforehand. Markets also react faster to sudden events, like a Trump Truth Social post or an earthquake, than journalists do. Traders are financially incentivized to react in seconds; journalists are not. Recent high-profile examples include Nobel Peace Prize, Spotify, and Time POTY markets, where traders had information before the news broke. In the Nobel case, there was disinformation claiming insider trading, but as far as most observers can tell, the information was obtained legally via web-scraping. Even if the Nobel Committee disliked it, legally obtained information is fair game. 2) “All these prediction markets are doing is aggregating sentiment on the news.” This is easy to debunk. Prediction markets do aggregate information, but not merely sentiment or headlines. That’s likely why CNN and CNBC partnered with Kalshi. News is filtered through editors, incentives, and bias. Taking headlines at face value is not a winning trading strategy. Savvy traders treat news as one input among many variables. If a headline says “Poll X shows Clinton up 10 points,” markets may adjust, but they don’t blindly price the headline. They factor in other variables. I’d argue markets are often smarter than the news. Domer❤️‍🔥 has even argued that Fed markets on Kalshi are more accurate than CME due to traders like himself making them more efficient, and I think he’s right. 3) “The only way you can get something not in the news from these markets is if someone with non-news information trades, which is AKA inside information.” Merriam-Webster defines insider information as “information not known to the public that one has obtained by virtue of being an insider.” You can obtain non-news information without being an insider. This overlaps with point one, but here’s a concrete example. For the recent TN-07 special election, I traveled to TN-07 and spoke with voters leaving early-voting sites and with everyday residents. I learned how little awareness there was that a special election was even happening, and how voters were thinking about the race. That information wasn’t in the news, but it informed how I traded. I’m not an insider. This was “alpha hunting” through firsthand observation. Almost every serious prediction market trader has similar stories. This is certainly not "insider trading." I’m genuinely curious to hear your thoughts, Coffeezilla, and hope for a good-faith dialogue. I hope you are doing well!

Benjamin Freeman

80,021 görüntüleme • 9 ay önce

As prediction market betting becomes more prevalent in nearly every aspect of American culture, journalist and author David Hill says not everything needs to turn into a "betting proposition." "I don't think that it makes a lot of sense for us to want to turn every single proposition in American culture and life into a betting proposition," he told PBS News' Geoff Bennett. "But I do think there's clearly a market for it." Hill added that America needs to "reckon" with the rapid rise of prediction markets and put regulations around the industry to protect people and prevent "large-scale corruption." "There's real life-and-death stuff that's getting bet on that I think behooves the government to get involved and figure out how we can regulate what types of things people are allowed to, you know, predict," he said. "I think the notion that we're predicting is a little bit ridiculous. ... What people are essentially doing is gambling." Hill spoke to Geoff Bennett for the latest episode of PBS News' podcast, "Settle In," about America's love of betting and how prediction markets are changing the industry. For the full episode:
2:27

As prediction market betting becomes more prevalent in nearly every aspect of American culture, journalist and author David Hill says not everything needs to turn into a "betting proposition." "I don't think that it makes a lot of sense for us to want to turn every single proposition in American culture and life into a betting proposition," he told PBS News' Geoff Bennett. "But I do think there's clearly a market for it." Hill added that America needs to "reckon" with the rapid rise of prediction markets and put regulations around the industry to protect people and prevent "large-scale corruption." "There's real life-and-death stuff that's getting bet on that I think behooves the government to get involved and figure out how we can regulate what types of things people are allowed to, you know, predict," he said. "I think the notion that we're predicting is a little bit ridiculous. ... What people are essentially doing is gambling." Hill spoke to Geoff Bennett for the latest episode of PBS News' podcast, "Settle In," about America's love of betting and how prediction markets are changing the industry. For the full episode:

PBS News

11,154 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce

Prediction markets are no longer a fringe curiosity. They are becoming one of the most revealing instruments in modern finance. Platforms like Polymarket, once a niche corner of crypto, now regularly clear billions in monthly volume as traders speculate on everything from political outcomes to sports to cultural events. Few people saw this future as early, or as clearly, as Joey Krug. A decade before prediction markets went mainstream, Joey dropped out of college to co-found Augur, the first decentralized prediction market protocol. He later became one of the most influential investors in the category by backing Polymarket at Founders Fund. In this conversation, Joey shares why the moment for prediction markets has finally arrived, what has changed, and how these markets are reshaping information flows across society. You can listen to it here 👇 • YouTube: • Spotify: • Apple: And a big thanks to the incredible sponsors that support our work: ✨ Guru – The AI source of truth for work: ✨ Auth0– Secure access for everyone. But not just anyone:
0:55

Prediction markets are no longer a fringe curiosity. They are becoming one of the most revealing instruments in modern finance. Platforms like Polymarket, once a niche corner of crypto, now regularly clear billions in monthly volume as traders speculate on everything from political outcomes to sports to cultural events. Few people saw this future as early, or as clearly, as Joey Krug. A decade before prediction markets went mainstream, Joey dropped out of college to co-found Augur, the first decentralized prediction market protocol. He later became one of the most influential investors in the category by backing Polymarket at Founders Fund. In this conversation, Joey shares why the moment for prediction markets has finally arrived, what has changed, and how these markets are reshaping information flows across society. You can listen to it here 👇 • YouTube: • Spotify: • Apple: And a big thanks to the incredible sponsors that support our work: ✨ Guru – The AI source of truth for work: ✨ Auth0– Secure access for everyone. But not just anyone:

Mario Gabriele 🦊

37,109 görüntüleme • 9 ay önce

🚨 DARPA SECRETLY BUILT THE BLUEPRINT FOR POLYMARKET — AND THE RABBIT HOLE IS INSANE Back in 2001, DARPA was reportedly funding research into prediction markets. Not fantasy football. Not stocks. Prediction markets for wars, coups, terrorist attacks, political instability, and major world events. The project was called the Policy Analysis Market. The idea was simple: If enough people put money behind what they think will happen, the market might become a powerful forecasting tool. The backlash was immediate. The project was shut down almost overnight. Intelligence officials reportedly argued that prediction markets could still be useful for gathering information and forecasting future events. In other words, the idea didn't die. It just disappeared. Then fast forward to 2020. A 22-year-old college dropout launches Polymarket. A platform where people bet on elections. Wars. Political outcomes. Global events. The exact type of forecasting system DARPA had been exploring nearly two decades earlier. Coincidence? One of Polymarket's earliest investors was reportedly Peter Thiel. The same Peter Thiel connected to Palantir, one of the most influential data and intelligence companies in the world. In February 2004, reports surfaced that DARPA had quietly canceled a project called LifeLog. LifeLog's goal was reportedly to create a system capable of recording and organizing nearly every aspect of a person's life. What they saw. What they said. Who they talked to. Where they went. What they did. According to reports, DARPA never fully explained why the project vanished. Now look at the timeline. LifeLog cancellation reported: February 4, 2004. Facebook launch: January 4, 2004. One project disappears. One project appears. One month apart. And now, years later, another platform emerges that looks strangely similar to an old government concept that was supposedly abandoned. Maybe it's all coincidence. Maybe every connection is random. Or maybe the public keeps being told projects were canceled when they were simply moved somewhere else. Do you think these are coincidences... or are we looking at the same system wearing different logos?
2:02

🚨 DARPA SECRETLY BUILT THE BLUEPRINT FOR POLYMARKET — AND THE RABBIT HOLE IS INSANE Back in 2001, DARPA was reportedly funding research into prediction markets. Not fantasy football. Not stocks. Prediction markets for wars, coups, terrorist attacks, political instability, and major world events. The project was called the Policy Analysis Market. The idea was simple: If enough people put money behind what they think will happen, the market might become a powerful forecasting tool. The backlash was immediate. The project was shut down almost overnight. Intelligence officials reportedly argued that prediction markets could still be useful for gathering information and forecasting future events. In other words, the idea didn't die. It just disappeared. Then fast forward to 2020. A 22-year-old college dropout launches Polymarket. A platform where people bet on elections. Wars. Political outcomes. Global events. The exact type of forecasting system DARPA had been exploring nearly two decades earlier. Coincidence? One of Polymarket's earliest investors was reportedly Peter Thiel. The same Peter Thiel connected to Palantir, one of the most influential data and intelligence companies in the world. In February 2004, reports surfaced that DARPA had quietly canceled a project called LifeLog. LifeLog's goal was reportedly to create a system capable of recording and organizing nearly every aspect of a person's life. What they saw. What they said. Who they talked to. Where they went. What they did. According to reports, DARPA never fully explained why the project vanished. Now look at the timeline. LifeLog cancellation reported: February 4, 2004. Facebook launch: January 4, 2004. One project disappears. One project appears. One month apart. And now, years later, another platform emerges that looks strangely similar to an old government concept that was supposedly abandoned. Maybe it's all coincidence. Maybe every connection is random. Or maybe the public keeps being told projects were canceled when they were simply moved somewhere else. Do you think these are coincidences... or are we looking at the same system wearing different logos?

HustleBitch

17,931 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

🇺🇸 Tucker: The oil market is clearly manipulated "There was a time this month, with the Strait basically still closed, when oil, as priced in the Brent crude market, was cheaper by a few cents per barrel than it was before the war started." Referring to the Iran war and repeated threats to the Strait of Hormuz, he argued oil prices should have surged far higher if they truly reflected supply and demand. Instead, financial markets are being driven by speculation, insider trading, and powerful interests. Source: Tucker Carlson / Writer: Monica
4:41

🇺🇸 Tucker: The oil market is clearly manipulated "There was a time this month, with the Strait basically still closed, when oil, as priced in the Brent crude market, was cheaper by a few cents per barrel than it was before the war started." Referring to the Iran war and repeated threats to the Strait of Hormuz, he argued oil prices should have surged far higher if they truly reflected supply and demand. Instead, financial markets are being driven by speculation, insider trading, and powerful interests. Source: Tucker Carlson / Writer: Monica

Mario Nawfal

76,953 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

George Soros on the illusion of predicting the market: "financial markets are usually unpredictable. so one has to have different scenarios. the idea that you can actually predict what will happen contradicts my way of looking at the market." retail traders are obsessed with being prophets. they draw a hundred lines on a chart, convince themselves they know exactly where the price is going, and marry their analysis. when the market inevitably does something else, they freeze. their ego won't let them pivot, so they just hold and hope until they get liquidated the guys who actually pull money out of the market don't predict a damn thing they don't care if the chart goes up, down, or sideways. instead of trying to outsmart the future, they build a system of reactions. they map out every possible scenario in advance, so when the market makes a move, they don't have to think, panic, or feel. they just execute the math trading isn't about having a crystal ball. it's about being so adaptable that you can extract profit no matter how wrong your initial guess was bookmark and watch the video below
24:26

George Soros on the illusion of predicting the market: "financial markets are usually unpredictable. so one has to have different scenarios. the idea that you can actually predict what will happen contradicts my way of looking at the market." retail traders are obsessed with being prophets. they draw a hundred lines on a chart, convince themselves they know exactly where the price is going, and marry their analysis. when the market inevitably does something else, they freeze. their ego won't let them pivot, so they just hold and hope until they get liquidated the guys who actually pull money out of the market don't predict a damn thing they don't care if the chart goes up, down, or sideways. instead of trying to outsmart the future, they build a system of reactions. they map out every possible scenario in advance, so when the market makes a move, they don't have to think, panic, or feel. they just execute the math trading isn't about having a crystal ball. it's about being so adaptable that you can extract profit no matter how wrong your initial guess was bookmark and watch the video below

ludoonchart

116,274 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

.Martin Shkreli explains why he's both bearish on prediction markets and runs a bot that makes a market in the Bitcoin 15-minute Polymarket markets: "How much are you just financializing for financializing's sake, and is that sustainable when you actually need people with tons of money to fight the arbitrage gradient?" "For example, I've been running this bot on Polymarket that makes a market in the Bitcoin 15-minute markets, which are somewhat inefficient." "Nobody needs to trade this. There's no actual benefit to trading this, other than that you can take two-to-N bets - you get around 96 bets a day - and with the money velocity of getting a lot of those right, you can compound insanely well." "Of course, it's random. But people's hope springs eternal that they could somehow get the rhythm of the market every 15 minutes. I think it's a waste of ingenuity and engineering."
1:56

.Martin Shkreli explains why he's both bearish on prediction markets and runs a bot that makes a market in the Bitcoin 15-minute Polymarket markets: "How much are you just financializing for financializing's sake, and is that sustainable when you actually need people with tons of money to fight the arbitrage gradient?" "For example, I've been running this bot on Polymarket that makes a market in the Bitcoin 15-minute markets, which are somewhat inefficient." "Nobody needs to trade this. There's no actual benefit to trading this, other than that you can take two-to-N bets - you get around 96 bets a day - and with the money velocity of getting a lot of those right, you can compound insanely well." "Of course, it's random. But people's hope springs eternal that they could somehow get the rhythm of the market every 15 minutes. I think it's a waste of ingenuity and engineering."

TBPN

151,807 görüntüleme • 7 ay önce

Chamath and Larry Summers Debate the Market Reaction to Trump's Tariffs Lawrence H. Summers: "If this is such a terrific thing, why do markets think it's so terrible for the American economy?" "Maybe the market's just completely wrong ... but the job of markets is to look forward." "It's to look passed the immediate." "It's to see what the long run consequences are going to be." "And markets are making a pretty devastatingly negative judgment on this step." Chamath Palihapitiya: " Larry, that's not true." " So let's just establish a couple facts about 'the markets.'" "Number one, there are two markets and they behave totally differently, and sometimes inversely to each other." "There's the stock market and there's the bond market." 1) Stocks: mean reversion "With respect to the stock market, what they are debating, and you're right Larry, is what is the effective long-term rate of return a dollar needs to generate in order to pay me back that dollar?" "That is what the fundamental stock market does." "And what we've seen for many years with trade imbalances, trade deficits, and close-to-zero interest rates, of which more of that happened under Democrats than Republicans, we have allowed the stock market to inflate past historical averages." " What we've actually seen happen in the last week is what most people would call mean reversion." "The stock market is still way above where it was last year, two years ago, three years ago." "What has happened is that the forward multiples have compressed. So that's number one. That's a fact." 2) Bonds: it's possible a major trade blew up "And then with respect to bonds, what we are seeing now is there are two very complicated issues." "In the last two days, we saw one part of the bond market totally get out of whack." "And what we know is that the yields changed materially in a very acute way, which is atypical of how the bond market typically digests a philosophical change in approach to policy." " What we heard in the last 24 hours is a lot of this move may have been attributed to an enormous levered bet on US treasuries by a Japanese hedge fund." " It will take three, and four, and five, and six weeks for us to really know." 3) Private credit: something to watch closely " Separately, what we do know, though, where the structural complexity of the market — and this is where, Larry, I agree with you — is acute and important to observe is in the credit markets for private companies." "And that is where you have to pay a lot of attention."
2:18

Chamath and Larry Summers Debate the Market Reaction to Trump's Tariffs Lawrence H. Summers: "If this is such a terrific thing, why do markets think it's so terrible for the American economy?" "Maybe the market's just completely wrong ... but the job of markets is to look forward." "It's to look passed the immediate." "It's to see what the long run consequences are going to be." "And markets are making a pretty devastatingly negative judgment on this step." Chamath Palihapitiya: " Larry, that's not true." " So let's just establish a couple facts about 'the markets.'" "Number one, there are two markets and they behave totally differently, and sometimes inversely to each other." "There's the stock market and there's the bond market." 1) Stocks: mean reversion "With respect to the stock market, what they are debating, and you're right Larry, is what is the effective long-term rate of return a dollar needs to generate in order to pay me back that dollar?" "That is what the fundamental stock market does." "And what we've seen for many years with trade imbalances, trade deficits, and close-to-zero interest rates, of which more of that happened under Democrats than Republicans, we have allowed the stock market to inflate past historical averages." " What we've actually seen happen in the last week is what most people would call mean reversion." "The stock market is still way above where it was last year, two years ago, three years ago." "What has happened is that the forward multiples have compressed. So that's number one. That's a fact." 2) Bonds: it's possible a major trade blew up "And then with respect to bonds, what we are seeing now is there are two very complicated issues." "In the last two days, we saw one part of the bond market totally get out of whack." "And what we know is that the yields changed materially in a very acute way, which is atypical of how the bond market typically digests a philosophical change in approach to policy." " What we heard in the last 24 hours is a lot of this move may have been attributed to an enormous levered bet on US treasuries by a Japanese hedge fund." " It will take three, and four, and five, and six weeks for us to really know." 3) Private credit: something to watch closely " Separately, what we do know, though, where the structural complexity of the market — and this is where, Larry, I agree with you — is acute and important to observe is in the credit markets for private companies." "And that is where you have to pay a lot of attention."

The All-In Podcast

98,290 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

Prediction markets are no longer a niche corner of crypto. real people are putting real money behind real convictions on sports, crypto, and global geopolitics. the infrastructure is maturing fast. at the center of that shift is POTS MARKET. not just a platform a tool for aggregating collective intelligence. Users bet on outcomes with actual stakes, and the market reveals what the crowd actually believes. The numbers back it up. POTS Market is officially ranked a Top 20 Builder on Polymarket, with over $4M in monthly trading volume. that's not speculation that's traction. sports. financial indicators. major world events. POTS Market gives you the liquidity and depth to turn sharp insights into actual positions. If you see it before the market does, you can profit from it. stop guessing. start backing your conviction with stakes. explore the ecosystem → POTS MARKET POTS MONEY
1:23

Prediction markets are no longer a niche corner of crypto. real people are putting real money behind real convictions on sports, crypto, and global geopolitics. the infrastructure is maturing fast. at the center of that shift is POTS MARKET. not just a platform a tool for aggregating collective intelligence. Users bet on outcomes with actual stakes, and the market reveals what the crowd actually believes. The numbers back it up. POTS Market is officially ranked a Top 20 Builder on Polymarket, with over $4M in monthly trading volume. that's not speculation that's traction. sports. financial indicators. major world events. POTS Market gives you the liquidity and depth to turn sharp insights into actual positions. If you see it before the market does, you can profit from it. stop guessing. start backing your conviction with stakes. explore the ecosystem → POTS MARKET POTS MONEY

KAISER

12,208 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

Everyone keeps saying the Fed is going to hold rates higher for longer. The swap market, one of the biggest markets in the world, is quietly betting the opposite. Ten and thirty year swap spreads are still sitting near the lowest levels in their entire history. That is not noise. That is the market pricing where short term rates actually end up over time. If the swap market believed the Fed's own narrative, spreads would move to reflect higher for longer. They have not. Instead they compressed further as oil prices rose, which is a bet against the Fed's story, not for it. The message underneath all the technical language is simple: rates go lower, and stay lower, for a long time. The forward curve is not buying the headlines.
3:05

Everyone keeps saying the Fed is going to hold rates higher for longer. The swap market, one of the biggest markets in the world, is quietly betting the opposite. Ten and thirty year swap spreads are still sitting near the lowest levels in their entire history. That is not noise. That is the market pricing where short term rates actually end up over time. If the swap market believed the Fed's own narrative, spreads would move to reflect higher for longer. They have not. Instead they compressed further as oil prices rose, which is a bet against the Fed's story, not for it. The message underneath all the technical language is simple: rates go lower, and stay lower, for a long time. The forward curve is not buying the headlines.

Jeffrey P. Snider

50,225 görüntüleme • 4 gün önce

Bloomberg's James Seyffart on why ETF flows are a mirror, not a signal "They're just a piece of the pie. Honestly, they reflect what's going on in the broader market more than anything. There was a time where you got an ETF on an underlying asset and that actually moved the market, people thought it was going to bring more demand, whatnot. There's some truth to that." "But for the most part it's just reflecting what's going on in the market. We had some puking in June when the whole market was puking, which was the first time the ETFs really puked up some Bitcoin. It's really just a reflection of what's going on." "And some underlying heartbeat of demand, I think, is true from advisors."
0:32

Bloomberg's James Seyffart on why ETF flows are a mirror, not a signal "They're just a piece of the pie. Honestly, they reflect what's going on in the broader market more than anything. There was a time where you got an ETF on an underlying asset and that actually moved the market, people thought it was going to bring more demand, whatnot. There's some truth to that." "But for the most part it's just reflecting what's going on in the market. We had some puking in June when the whole market was puking, which was the first time the ETFs really puked up some Bitcoin. It's really just a reflection of what's going on." "And some underlying heartbeat of demand, I think, is true from advisors."

The Wolf Of All Streets

29,561 görüntüleme • 2 gün önce

#1 Elon Musk says the mission of Twitter 2.0 is to be the most reliable source of information and to provide citizens with a way to control the narrative: "The goal is to have Twitter be the best source of truth, the most timely and accurate source of truth, even if the truth is something we don't want to hear or unpleasant. Not just is something true or not, but what is the narrative. Most people don't appreciate that the media controls the narrative, so there are many things that could be talked about in the world, but only a few things can fit on the front page. But Twitter doesn't have a limitation like that, so the public can control the narrative, and the public can inform themselves as to what the narrative should be. That's a really big deal. It's a forum for citizen journalism or for the public to get together and communicate in a way that was never possible before so you can really know what's going on."
1:08

#1 Elon Musk says the mission of Twitter 2.0 is to be the most reliable source of information and to provide citizens with a way to control the narrative: "The goal is to have Twitter be the best source of truth, the most timely and accurate source of truth, even if the truth is something we don't want to hear or unpleasant. Not just is something true or not, but what is the narrative. Most people don't appreciate that the media controls the narrative, so there are many things that could be talked about in the world, but only a few things can fit on the front page. But Twitter doesn't have a limitation like that, so the public can control the narrative, and the public can inform themselves as to what the narrative should be. That's a really big deal. It's a forum for citizen journalism or for the public to get together and communicate in a way that was never possible before so you can really know what's going on."

KanekoaTheGreat

1,650,088 görüntüleme • 3 yıl önce