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Ray Dalio doesn't speak often, but when he does, you listen. His current take on the AI bubble (and exactly how to protect yourself from what's coming):

Miles Deutscher

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40,754 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce •via X (Twitter)

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Ray Dalio: AI will change the world but related stocks could still drop 80% On July 17, 2026, in an interview with My First Million, Ray Dalio Ray Dalio stated that during a bubble period, even the most successful companies could see their stock prices plunge by about 80%. He believes that while the emergence of major new technologies brings excitement and reasons to invest, promising technological prospects do not guarantee excellent stock returns due to high valuations and incoming competitors. According to his "bubble gauge," the current market is at 75% of the extreme levels seen in 1929 and 2000. Ray Dalio believes that the pricking of a bubble typically occurs when investors need to convert wealth into cash, frequently triggered by tightening monetary policies or wealth taxes.

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When asked if we're in an AI bubble, Ray Dalio replied: "Indicators show that we’re about 80% in the last two times” - referring to 1929 and 2000. Dalio uses a bubble indicator tracking data back to 1900. It measures several factors: - How much leverage exists - Who's using that leverage - The ratio of wealth to available cash - And so on These indicators show we're deep into bubble territory, but not necessarily at the peak. That’s why he mentioned: “Don’t sell just because there’s a bubble”. Because bubbles can keep inflating. Dalio references how the market surged 90% from early 1928 to September 1929, even after Charles Merrill warned investors to get out. The timing depends on what "pricks" the bubble, and that hasn't happened yet. So what actually bursts bubbles? "The need for cash," Dalio explains. "You can't spend wealth. You have to sell wealth in order to get the money." When asset holders must sell - that's when bubbles pop. Classic triggers include tight Fed policy (unlikely now) or wealth taxes. When the interviewer mentions wealth tax proposals in California, Dalio confirms they exist at both state and national levels and could force asset sales. The real danger isn't valuations alone - it's when circumstances force selling. Ray Dalio covers why we're in a bubble, why you shouldn't sell yet and when to actually sell based on historical patterns in this 9-minute interview with CNBC. If you'd like to watch it, like and comment "DALIO" and I'll send it to you.

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