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Reality check: Dems are way behind their 2006 & 2018 pace on the generic ballot at this point in the cycle. Ahead by only 2 pt vs. 7 pt in 2006/2018 cycles. Seat-by-seat analysis actually reveals more GOP pickup opportunities than Dems! Very much unlike 2006 & 2018 at...

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(((Harry Enten)))

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801,846 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr •via X (Twitter)

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8 Kommentare

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Bill Marshalvor 1 Jahr

Going to be a very, very, very long time before Dems can ever hope to have a Senate majority leader again

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Hugh Janusvor 1 Jahr

@josh_hammer This is crazy considering how Trump seems to be sabotaging the GOP at almost every move.

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John Andersonvor 1 Jahr

Seems likely that Red is going to continue winning, because any talk of Red Regret just ain't true. In fact, I'd guess Blues Going Red is more likely for some percent. Let's not pretend some blues don't like what's going on and want many of the same things reds voted for.

Profilbild von Kirk Reagan, Starship Captain
Kirk Reagan, Starship Captainvor 1 Jahr

@asymmetricinfo

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Tvor 1 Jahr

We all get to pay tariffs forever because Biden and Trump killed the Democratic party. Seems like it should be able to pull together a moderate opposition coalition, but seems not.

Profilbild von Humane Stats
Humane Statsvor 1 Jahr

Endogeneity: the more Dems believe the wave is an automatic thing, the more they relax and trust in the wave, and thereby make the wave less likely to happen. ( ...or it could be something else. But endogeneity is always a fun hypothesis.)

Profilbild von Dan
Danvor 1 Jahr

@Alicia_Smith19 @xviddl download this

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La Sports Fan For Lifevor 1 Jahr

Shh @barnes_law and @Peoples_Pundit and @honestpollster assured me

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Unlike in 2006 & 2018 cycles, the GOP actually leads the Dems on net favorability at this point! The national environment suggests GOP holding the Senate. Why? Generic ballot (Dems in a weaker position than 2006 or 2018), Senate map (Dems need pickups in red states) & history.
2:49

Unlike in 2006 & 2018 cycles, the GOP actually leads the Dems on net favorability at this point! The national environment suggests GOP holding the Senate. Why? Generic ballot (Dems in a weaker position than 2006 or 2018), Senate map (Dems need pickups in red states) & history.

(((Harry Enten)))

746,301 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

CNN: Dems in a weaker position than 2006 or 2018 in the Generic ballot Generic Ballot Leads At This Point: 2006: 🔵 D+11 2018: 🔵 D+8 2026: 🔵 D+5
0:33

CNN: Dems in a weaker position than 2006 or 2018 in the Generic ballot Generic Ballot Leads At This Point: 2006: 🔵 D+11 2018: 🔵 D+8 2026: 🔵 D+5

OSZ

76,951 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

Dems in 2025 are looking very weak at this point in the cycle compared to past midterms under Republican Presidents, like 2005 and 2017. In both 2005 and 2017, Dems were +7 points on the generic congressional ballot, and today, they are only +2. Looking at individual races and net pickup seat changes, Republicans are up: 2026 - 🔴12 seats 2018 - 🔵33 seats 2006 - 🔵7 seats This is 100% a direct reflection of the leadership from Donald J. Trump and his legislative agenda 🇺🇸
0:38

Dems in 2025 are looking very weak at this point in the cycle compared to past midterms under Republican Presidents, like 2005 and 2017. In both 2005 and 2017, Dems were +7 points on the generic congressional ballot, and today, they are only +2. Looking at individual races and net pickup seat changes, Republicans are up: 2026 - 🔴12 seats 2018 - 🔵33 seats 2006 - 🔵7 seats This is 100% a direct reflection of the leadership from Donald J. Trump and his legislative agenda 🇺🇸

Matthew Brasseaux

11,178 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

Cong Dems now have a -55 net approval, an all-time low & lower than the Dead Sea. 2 causes: Dems gives them a -6 pt net approval(!), & they're at -61 pts with indies! The effect? Dems lead on the generic ballot is less than half of what it was at this pt in the 06 & 18 cycles.
3:10

Cong Dems now have a -55 net approval, an all-time low & lower than the Dead Sea. 2 causes: Dems gives them a -6 pt net approval(!), & they're at -61 pts with indies! The effect? Dems lead on the generic ballot is less than half of what it was at this pt in the 06 & 18 cycles.

(((Harry Enten)))

456,994 Aufrufe • vor 8 Monaten

This is the best polling Texas Dems have had in a Senate race this century. Talarico's chances are very real. He's polling ~10 pts better than O'Rourke (2018) was at this pt. Paxton's net favorable is ~15 pts lower than Cruz was (2018). Trump's much less popular than in 2018.
2:51

This is the best polling Texas Dems have had in a Senate race this century. Talarico's chances are very real. He's polling ~10 pts better than O'Rourke (2018) was at this pt. Paxton's net favorable is ~15 pts lower than Cruz was (2018). Trump's much less popular than in 2018.

(((Harry Enten)))

346,973 Aufrufe • vor 17 Tagen

CNN: Dems lead on the generic ballot is less than half of what it was at this pt in the 06 & 18 cycles Generic Ballot Comparison: Dec 2005: 🔵 D+10 Dec 2017: 🔵 D+10 Dec 2025: 🔵 D+4
0:42

CNN: Dems lead on the generic ballot is less than half of what it was at this pt in the 06 & 18 cycles Generic Ballot Comparison: Dec 2005: 🔵 D+10 Dec 2017: 🔵 D+10 Dec 2025: 🔵 D+4

OSZ

167,606 Aufrufe • vor 8 Monaten

What happened in NYC tonight represents a larger trend among Dems... 1. Dem Socialists (+17 pt net fav) are more popular than Dems in Congress (+4 pt net fav) with Dems. 2. Socialism's popularity with Dems is way up in the last 15 years & is far more popular than capitalism.
1:53

What happened in NYC tonight represents a larger trend among Dems... 1. Dem Socialists (+17 pt net fav) are more popular than Dems in Congress (+4 pt net fav) with Dems. 2. Socialism's popularity with Dems is way up in the last 15 years & is far more popular than capitalism.

(((Harry Enten)))

764,278 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Right now, Dems have a math problem in taking back the Senate. They need a net pickup of 4 seats & lead in 1 GOP held seat (NC). Rest are ties or GOP ahead. Problem is the fundamentals.... Median of key 6 states: GOP with +6 on generic ballot. 53% say Dem party too far left.
3:12

Right now, Dems have a math problem in taking back the Senate. They need a net pickup of 4 seats & lead in 1 GOP held seat (NC). Rest are ties or GOP ahead. Problem is the fundamentals.... Median of key 6 states: GOP with +6 on generic ballot. 53% say Dem party too far left.

(((Harry Enten)))

410,319 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

I was shocked to see how how Dems have gained on Party ID per Gallup. Dems lead by 7 pts vs. a tie at the start of the year. Looks a lot more like the 2018 cycle than 2022. Indeed, Dems have gained House seats in all midterms since 1990 when party id looks like what Gallup has.
2:50

I was shocked to see how how Dems have gained on Party ID per Gallup. Dems lead by 7 pts vs. a tie at the start of the year. Looks a lot more like the 2018 cycle than 2022. Indeed, Dems have gained House seats in all midterms since 1990 when party id looks like what Gallup has.

(((Harry Enten)))

614,081 Aufrufe • vor 10 Monaten

Voters who didn't cast a ballot in 2024 are pissed off, & it could reshape the midterms. Trump's net approval with them is down 54 pt since Nov 2024 to -50 pt now! A lot (48%) of these non-2024 voters say they're at least very likely to vote in 2026 & they favor Dems by 31 pt.
3:01

Voters who didn't cast a ballot in 2024 are pissed off, & it could reshape the midterms. Trump's net approval with them is down 54 pt since Nov 2024 to -50 pt now! A lot (48%) of these non-2024 voters say they're at least very likely to vote in 2026 & they favor Dems by 31 pt.

(((Harry Enten)))

180,217 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

CNN: The Democrats lead in the generic ballot is much less than previous blue waves 2006: 🔵 Dem +10 2018: 🔵 Dem +8 2026: 🔵 Dem +5 (With Redistricting Democrats need to win by +3/4 points to win the house)
0:58

CNN: The Democrats lead in the generic ballot is much less than previous blue waves 2006: 🔵 Dem +10 2018: 🔵 Dem +8 2026: 🔵 Dem +5 (With Redistricting Democrats need to win by +3/4 points to win the house)

OSZ

20,231 Aufrufe • vor 24 Tagen

The 2026 Dem insurgency is a new tea party on steroids. Fewer Dems approve of Dem members of Congress (47%) than the GOP did of GOP members at this pt in 2010 (52%). More Dem House members are going down in primaries (5 so far & likely rising) than all of 2010 for the GOP (2).
2:46

The 2026 Dem insurgency is a new tea party on steroids. Fewer Dems approve of Dem members of Congress (47%) than the GOP did of GOP members at this pt in 2010 (52%). More Dem House members are going down in primaries (5 so far & likely rising) than all of 2010 for the GOP (2).

(((Harry Enten)))

75,318 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Liberal used to be a four-letter word in this country, but no longer. The % of Americans identifying as liberal is at a 50-year high. Most Dems now say they're liberal (59%), a 50-year high too. Also, the Dem lead on party id is even bigger than at this pt in the 2018 cycle!
2:49

Liberal used to be a four-letter word in this country, but no longer. The % of Americans identifying as liberal is at a 50-year high. Most Dems now say they're liberal (59%), a 50-year high too. Also, the Dem lead on party id is even bigger than at this pt in the 2018 cycle!

(((Harry Enten)))

748,349 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten

Talarico winning in Texas is no fantasy. He's polling better than any Dem Senate nominee at this point since 2002. Unlike O'Rourke in 2018, Talarico's ahead now. Paxton's much less popular than Cruz was. Trump is less popular now than in 2018. The GOP is right to be scared.
2:58

Talarico winning in Texas is no fantasy. He's polling better than any Dem Senate nominee at this point since 2002. Unlike O'Rourke in 2018, Talarico's ahead now. Paxton's much less popular than Cruz was. Trump is less popular now than in 2018. The GOP is right to be scared.

(((Harry Enten)))

818,982 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

3 caution points for Democrats... 1. Trump wins if the difference between the polls at this point & the result matches what we saw in 2016 or 2020. 2. Trump's more popular now than at this pt in 2016 or 2020. 3. Dems don't say they're more likely to vote now than in May
2:32

3 caution points for Democrats... 1. Trump wins if the difference between the polls at this point & the result matches what we saw in 2016 or 2020. 2. Trump's more popular now than at this pt in 2016 or 2020. 3. Dems don't say they're more likely to vote now than in May

(((Harry Enten)))

3,114,839 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren

What a change from last summer on mid-decade redistricting! Trump & the GOP started the fight in 2025, but, at this point, it looks like the Dems will finish it. Dems are more likely to gain from mid-decade redistricting than the GOP thanks to CA+UT & potentially VA,NY & MD.
2:34

What a change from last summer on mid-decade redistricting! Trump & the GOP started the fight in 2025, but, at this point, it looks like the Dems will finish it. Dems are more likely to gain from mid-decade redistricting than the GOP thanks to CA+UT & potentially VA,NY & MD.

(((Harry Enten)))

474,591 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten

Democrats have to like to what they're seeing out of House retirements so far. We've got the highest number for the 21st century at this point in a cycle... & most of them are Republicans. The cycle this looks most like so far? 2017-2018... When Dems easily retook the House.
1:53

Democrats have to like to what they're seeing out of House retirements so far. We've got the highest number for the 21st century at this point in a cycle... & most of them are Republicans. The cycle this looks most like so far? 2017-2018... When Dems easily retook the House.

(((Harry Enten)))

403,280 Aufrufe • vor 11 Monaten

Trump's been the most transformative prez on border security... He's far more popular on it (+2 pt net approve) than Biden was (-23 pts). The GOP would love to run on this issue in Nov (a 16 pt lead on the Dems). Extending the border wall is also popular (+14 net support).
2:38

Trump's been the most transformative prez on border security... He's far more popular on it (+2 pt net approve) than Biden was (-23 pts). The GOP would love to run on this issue in Nov (a 16 pt lead on the Dems). Extending the border wall is also popular (+14 net support).

(((Harry Enten)))

87,210 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🚨 HOLY CRAP! Even CNN was just forced to report that REPUBLICANS are leading net favorability by +5 points ahead of the 2026 midterms That is HUGE, given in 2018, Democrats were +12 "Look at this. Party ahead, midterm year with GOP president? Republicans actually AHEAD by 5 points! Democrats are running BEHIND their previous benchmarks." The Congressional GOP should CAPITALIZE on this, cancel vacation and go pass the SAVE America Act! 🇺🇸
0:31

🚨 HOLY CRAP! Even CNN was just forced to report that REPUBLICANS are leading net favorability by +5 points ahead of the 2026 midterms That is HUGE, given in 2018, Democrats were +12 "Look at this. Party ahead, midterm year with GOP president? Republicans actually AHEAD by 5 points! Democrats are running BEHIND their previous benchmarks." The Congressional GOP should CAPITALIZE on this, cancel vacation and go pass the SAVE America Act! 🇺🇸

Eric Daugherty

436,438 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten