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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Recent reports suggest U.S. escort operations through Hormuz are proving more effective than many expected. But there's a clock running underneath that success. Keeping warships continuously deployed delays maintenance, wears down crews and aircraft, and eventually leaves fewer ships ready to replace them. One admiral calls it the... show more

Mario Nawfal

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47,531 görüntüleme • 17 gün önce •via X (Twitter)

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Kevin Sands profil fotoğrafı

Kevin Sands17 gün önce

Don't worry Isreal will levrl iran by then, it's coming along with 75k 1 ton bombs

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Kelvin Majinji17 gün önce

I think I've found an adjustment I can actually stick with. I can't help getting a little excited here.

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Neuni United17 gün önce

No matter how broken you are, you can start over and be better.

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 U.S. control of the Strait of Hormuz may be working, but the Navy could be burning through its backup plan in the process. Geopolitical analyst Brandon Weichert points out that hitting Iranian radar and targeting infrastructure can make attacks on ships harder, even though Iran still has autonomous systems that don’t rely on radar. Then comes the bigger problem: U.S. destroyer readiness is around 40%. He explains that roughly 20% are fully ready to deploy, while another 20% can be surged again even though they need maintenance. That surge may already be happening. “And so there’s nothing after that.” He warns the real consequences could start showing up in about two years. Brandon Weichert

🇺🇸🇮🇷 U.S. control of the Strait of Hormuz may be working, but the Navy could be burning through its backup plan in the process. Geopolitical analyst Brandon Weichert points out that hitting Iranian radar and targeting infrastructure can make attacks on ships harder, even though Iran still has autonomous systems that don’t rely on radar. Then comes the bigger problem: U.S. destroyer readiness is around 40%. He explains that roughly 20% are fully ready to deploy, while another 20% can be surged again even though they need maintenance. That surge may already be happening. “And so there’s nothing after that.” He warns the real consequences could start showing up in about two years. Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

55,443 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump's immediate objective is simple: get the U.S. out of the Strait of Hormuz without allowing Iran to dictate who passes through it. The problem is that Tehran now sees Hormuz as its leverage. That may be the central problem with Washington's strategy. Economic warfare can avoid a ground invasion and nuclear escalation. But if Iran believes control of Hormuz is essential to its survival, sanctions may only convince Tehran to hold the strait tighter. The war may have moved from missiles to economics. The underlying confrontation hasn't moved an inch. Brandon Weichert

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump's immediate objective is simple: get the U.S. out of the Strait of Hormuz without allowing Iran to dictate who passes through it. The problem is that Tehran now sees Hormuz as its leverage. That may be the central problem with Washington's strategy. Economic warfare can avoid a ground invasion and nuclear escalation. But if Iran believes control of Hormuz is essential to its survival, sanctions may only convince Tehran to hold the strait tighter. The war may have moved from missiles to economics. The underlying confrontation hasn't moved an inch. Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

70,863 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

🇺🇸 🇮🇷 The biggest threat to a U.S. aircraft carrier may not be sinking it, it may be hitting it hard enough that it can’t fight. Only 40% of the destroyers protecting American carriers are reportedly combat-ready right now. Geopolitical analyst Brandon Weichert says the problem is straightforward: fewer ready destroyers means less protection, while incoming missiles are already getting close enough to force evasive maneuvers. As Weichert says, Trump could lose an aircraft carrier without it ever going under. A ballistic missile hit could leave the ship badly damaged and combat ineffective. And that could be enough. One strike doesn’t have to sink a carrier to take it out of the war. If the damage is severe enough, the ship could be sidelined for two or even three years. Brandon Weichert

🇺🇸 🇮🇷 The biggest threat to a U.S. aircraft carrier may not be sinking it, it may be hitting it hard enough that it can’t fight. Only 40% of the destroyers protecting American carriers are reportedly combat-ready right now. Geopolitical analyst Brandon Weichert says the problem is straightforward: fewer ready destroyers means less protection, while incoming missiles are already getting close enough to force evasive maneuvers. As Weichert says, Trump could lose an aircraft carrier without it ever going under. A ballistic missile hit could leave the ship badly damaged and combat ineffective. And that could be enough. One strike doesn’t have to sink a carrier to take it out of the war. If the damage is severe enough, the ship could be sidelined for two or even three years. Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

95,999 görüntüleme • 29 gün önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump may sign the Hormuz deal, but only because he needs a ceasefire more than he can afford to admit Reports suggest Iran and Oman are close to finalising a new shipping arrangement through the Strait. According to geopolitical analyst Brandon Weichert, it's a great deal for Iran, and a terrible one for Trump. And Trump will probably agree to it because he may no longer have a better option. Brandon believes the White House is running into three realities at the same time. America has burned through an enormous number of precision missiles, energy markets remain vulnerable every time Hormuz is threatened, and the midterms are getting closer. That combination, he argues, leaves Trump needing an off-ramp... fast. The emerging agreement reportedly gives Tehran oversight of shipping, and could even allow it to charge vessels for passage. If that happens, Brandon argues it won't just be another diplomatic compromise; it will signal something much bigger: The end of the maritime order the U.S built after World War II. For decades, global trade rested on one assumption: The U.S Navy would keep strategic waterways open. Brandon believes those days are over. Regional powers are increasingly setting the rules in their own neighbourhoods, and Hormuz could simply be the first major example. Brandon Weichert

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump may sign the Hormuz deal, but only because he needs a ceasefire more than he can afford to admit Reports suggest Iran and Oman are close to finalising a new shipping arrangement through the Strait. According to geopolitical analyst Brandon Weichert, it's a great deal for Iran, and a terrible one for Trump. And Trump will probably agree to it because he may no longer have a better option. Brandon believes the White House is running into three realities at the same time. America has burned through an enormous number of precision missiles, energy markets remain vulnerable every time Hormuz is threatened, and the midterms are getting closer. That combination, he argues, leaves Trump needing an off-ramp... fast. The emerging agreement reportedly gives Tehran oversight of shipping, and could even allow it to charge vessels for passage. If that happens, Brandon argues it won't just be another diplomatic compromise; it will signal something much bigger: The end of the maritime order the U.S built after World War II. For decades, global trade rested on one assumption: The U.S Navy would keep strategic waterways open. Brandon believes those days are over. Regional powers are increasingly setting the rules in their own neighbourhoods, and Hormuz could simply be the first major example. Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

274,585 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Is America draining the arsenal it needs to project power abroad? Brandon Weichert says the strain is already severe, arguing that key missile systems are being burned through faster than they can be replaced. He warns the damage could last “at least a generation,” even if the war ended immediately. The U.S. is burning through the interceptors and missile-defense systems it relies on to sustain military operations overseas. Brandon Weichert

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Is America draining the arsenal it needs to project power abroad? Brandon Weichert says the strain is already severe, arguing that key missile systems are being burned through faster than they can be replaced. He warns the damage could last “at least a generation,” even if the war ended immediately. The U.S. is burning through the interceptors and missile-defense systems it relies on to sustain military operations overseas. Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

44,328 görüntüleme • 18 gün önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Iran may have already decided Trump is a lame duck it can simply wait out. Brandon Weichert points to Tehran’s demands over the Strait of Hormuz, including control over which ships pass and potential reparations, as evidence that the two sides are negotiating from completely different realities. "The Iranians don't respect Trump anymore. They're angry at him and they don't want to deal with him." If Tehran believes the U.S. economy will deteriorate faster than Iran’s, Brandon says it may see little reason to compromise, risking a return to war. Brandon Weichert

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Iran may have already decided Trump is a lame duck it can simply wait out. Brandon Weichert points to Tehran’s demands over the Strait of Hormuz, including control over which ships pass and potential reparations, as evidence that the two sides are negotiating from completely different realities. "The Iranians don't respect Trump anymore. They're angry at him and they don't want to deal with him." If Tehran believes the U.S. economy will deteriorate faster than Iran’s, Brandon says it may see little reason to compromise, risking a return to war. Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

79,595 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz and the idea of a U.S. escort for tankers may be little more than PR in practice. Fmr U.S. Navy Malcolm Nance made it simple. "We heard that radio warning the other day. 'This is your last warning, we will destroy you if you don't turn around.' The ship turned around. By the way, that tanker was operating under U.S. guidance, not U.S. escort. The U.S. has escorted no one." Malcolm Nance

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Iran controls the Strait of Hormuz and the idea of a U.S. escort for tankers may be little more than PR in practice. Fmr U.S. Navy Malcolm Nance made it simple. "We heard that radio warning the other day. 'This is your last warning, we will destroy you if you don't turn around.' The ship turned around. By the way, that tanker was operating under U.S. guidance, not U.S. escort. The U.S. has escorted no one." Malcolm Nance

Mario Nawfal

64,021 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran may be baiting the U.S. Navy into the Strait of Hormuz Iran's new anti-ship missile may be less about sinking an American carrier today than deciding where the U.S. Navy fights tomorrow. Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar argues Tehran is trying to bait American warships deeper into the Strait of Hormuz. The reason is geography. With regional ports damaged, Aguilar says U.S. ships are operating with restricted maneuverability and increasingly difficult supply lines, including reliance on Diego Garcia more than 2,000 miles away. Iran, meanwhile, knows roughly where those ships have to operate. Now it has demonstrated a medium-range anti-ship ballistic missile specifically designed for warships and equipped, Aguilar says, with capabilities intended to defeat shipboard countermeasures. His expectation is that Washington may respond by doing exactly what Tehran wants: pushing naval forces farther into Hormuz to demonstrate U.S. control and strip Iran of its biggest negotiating lever. Aguilar thinks that attempt would fail. And Iran has spent months preparing the neighborhood with missiles, drones, mines and coastal weapons. The U.S. wants to prove it can control the Strait. Iran may be trying to convince it to come closer and prove it.

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran may be baiting the U.S. Navy into the Strait of Hormuz Iran's new anti-ship missile may be less about sinking an American carrier today than deciding where the U.S. Navy fights tomorrow. Lt. Col. Anthony Aguilar argues Tehran is trying to bait American warships deeper into the Strait of Hormuz. The reason is geography. With regional ports damaged, Aguilar says U.S. ships are operating with restricted maneuverability and increasingly difficult supply lines, including reliance on Diego Garcia more than 2,000 miles away. Iran, meanwhile, knows roughly where those ships have to operate. Now it has demonstrated a medium-range anti-ship ballistic missile specifically designed for warships and equipped, Aguilar says, with capabilities intended to defeat shipboard countermeasures. His expectation is that Washington may respond by doing exactly what Tehran wants: pushing naval forces farther into Hormuz to demonstrate U.S. control and strip Iran of its biggest negotiating lever. Aguilar thinks that attempt would fail. And Iran has spent months preparing the neighborhood with missiles, drones, mines and coastal weapons. The U.S. wants to prove it can control the Strait. Iran may be trying to convince it to come closer and prove it.

Mario Nawfal

356,915 görüntüleme • 28 gün önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 There's a problem military force alone cannot solve: even if CENTCOM says shipping lanes are being cleared, the shipping industry still has to believe they’re safe. And reportedly, insurers remain unconvinced. That leaves Washington and Tehran trapped in the same logic: each side believes one more round of pressure might finally force the other to back down. Instead, they risk bleeding each other while Hormuz remains disrupted and the global economy pays the bill. Brandon Weichert

🇺🇸🇮🇷 There's a problem military force alone cannot solve: even if CENTCOM says shipping lanes are being cleared, the shipping industry still has to believe they’re safe. And reportedly, insurers remain unconvinced. That leaves Washington and Tehran trapped in the same logic: each side believes one more round of pressure might finally force the other to back down. Instead, they risk bleeding each other while Hormuz remains disrupted and the global economy pays the bill. Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

71,323 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Washington is beginning to prepare for something more durable than a temporary Iran crisis. Roughly 50,000 U.S. personnel remaining in the region, extended deployments and plans to keep rotating ships through the blockade. “All indications are that the president and his team want to stick it out.” That raises the harder question. If Iran eventually succeeds in pushing U.S. forces back, does Trump take the exit? Or does being pushed out become the reason to escalate? Brandon Weichert

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Washington is beginning to prepare for something more durable than a temporary Iran crisis. Roughly 50,000 U.S. personnel remaining in the region, extended deployments and plans to keep rotating ships through the blockade. “All indications are that the president and his team want to stick it out.” That raises the harder question. If Iran eventually succeeds in pushing U.S. forces back, does Trump take the exit? Or does being pushed out become the reason to escalate? Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

81,614 görüntüleme • 27 gün önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The damage to Naval Support Activity Bahrain matters far beyond another base being hit. Home to the U.S. Fifth Fleet headquarters, Bahrain sits at the center of America’s naval architecture in the Gulf. Restoring that position during the war may no longer be realistic. And the alternatives come with distance. If ships increasingly depend on logistics from Diego Garcia, the supply line stretches thousands of miles while Hormuz remains disrupted. Iran doesn’t need to sink the U.S. fleet to change the balance. Making the bases that sustain it unusable can do plenty. Brandon Weichert

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The damage to Naval Support Activity Bahrain matters far beyond another base being hit. Home to the U.S. Fifth Fleet headquarters, Bahrain sits at the center of America’s naval architecture in the Gulf. Restoring that position during the war may no longer be realistic. And the alternatives come with distance. If ships increasingly depend on logistics from Diego Garcia, the supply line stretches thousands of miles while Hormuz remains disrupted. Iran doesn’t need to sink the U.S. fleet to change the balance. Making the bases that sustain it unusable can do plenty. Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

60,036 görüntüleme • 24 gün önce

🇺🇸 A contact close to Trump’s team believes the administration is likely to temporarily restrict U.S. diesel exports before the midterms. The logic is straightforward. Diesel is under extraordinary pressure, and keeping more American supply at home could push domestic prices down quickly. “In the near term, it will absolutely bring those prices down immediately, but it won’t last.” The underlying problem isn’t simply crude supply. Refining capacity is tight, while moving oil through Hormuz has become dramatically more expensive. An export ban can move barrels around. It can’t manufacture more diesel. Brandon Weichert

🇺🇸 A contact close to Trump’s team believes the administration is likely to temporarily restrict U.S. diesel exports before the midterms. The logic is straightforward. Diesel is under extraordinary pressure, and keeping more American supply at home could push domestic prices down quickly. “In the near term, it will absolutely bring those prices down immediately, but it won’t last.” The underlying problem isn’t simply crude supply. Refining capacity is tight, while moving oil through Hormuz has become dramatically more expensive. An export ban can move barrels around. It can’t manufacture more diesel. Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

64,449 görüntüleme • 6 gün önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Bobby Jones: The U.S. Navy has been pushed out of the fight that matters most Oil is getting through the Strait of Hormuz again. But retired Navy commander Bobby Jones thinks that is obscuring a much bigger problem for Washington. The U.S. can escort individual ships. What it cannot currently do, he argues, is establish lasting military control over the Strait. Iran has turned the waters around Hormuz into an enormous anti-access problem. Ships entering the area face threats from shore-based missiles, drones, mines and increasingly unmanned systems below the surface. Push American warships farther offshore and they become safer, but every additional mile makes the blockade harder to enforce and air operations harder to sustain. Jones believes that is already happening. “We have a presence, but we have been forced out. There are two different things.” And his test is brutally simple: “We are not combat effective to open the Strait of Hormuz, because if we were, we’d have already done it.” That changes how to interpret the tankers now getting through. Some oil moving does not necessarily mean America has broken Iran’s control. It may mean both sides have discovered that selectively allowing traffic is more useful than completely stopping it. The Strait isn’t fully open. And it is being managed inside a war neither side currently seems able to decisively win.

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Bobby Jones: The U.S. Navy has been pushed out of the fight that matters most Oil is getting through the Strait of Hormuz again. But retired Navy commander Bobby Jones thinks that is obscuring a much bigger problem for Washington. The U.S. can escort individual ships. What it cannot currently do, he argues, is establish lasting military control over the Strait. Iran has turned the waters around Hormuz into an enormous anti-access problem. Ships entering the area face threats from shore-based missiles, drones, mines and increasingly unmanned systems below the surface. Push American warships farther offshore and they become safer, but every additional mile makes the blockade harder to enforce and air operations harder to sustain. Jones believes that is already happening. “We have a presence, but we have been forced out. There are two different things.” And his test is brutally simple: “We are not combat effective to open the Strait of Hormuz, because if we were, we’d have already done it.” That changes how to interpret the tankers now getting through. Some oil moving does not necessarily mean America has broken Iran’s control. It may mean both sides have discovered that selectively allowing traffic is more useful than completely stopping it. The Strait isn’t fully open. And it is being managed inside a war neither side currently seems able to decisively win.

Mario Nawfal

277,673 görüntüleme • 5 gün önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Iran thinks time is running out and so does America. Tehran is still publicly asking Washington for a deal. Former U.S. diplomat and JCPOA negotiator Alan Eyre thinks that’s genuine. Tehran wants sanctions lifted, frozen assets released and a return to something resembling the Islamabad MoU. Trump thinks he can extract more. That creates a dangerous race. Eyre argues Iran knows its economic leverage is strongest before the midterms, which gives Tehran an incentive to intensify pressure now. But America has its own clock. Even with tankers moving through Hormuz under U.S. protection, Eyre says the system cannot simply continue indefinitely. Shipping remains expensive, millions of barrels per day are still missing, and U.S. naval readiness makes permanent escort operations unrealistic. “It’s not sustainable.” That is the part that matters. Washington’s strategy assumes Iran eventually cracks under economic pressure. Iran’s strategy assumes the economic and military cost of containing it eventually becomes intolerable for Washington. Neither side needs to defeat the other outright. They just need the other side’s clock to expire first. Brandon Weichert Alan Eyre

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Iran thinks time is running out and so does America. Tehran is still publicly asking Washington for a deal. Former U.S. diplomat and JCPOA negotiator Alan Eyre thinks that’s genuine. Tehran wants sanctions lifted, frozen assets released and a return to something resembling the Islamabad MoU. Trump thinks he can extract more. That creates a dangerous race. Eyre argues Iran knows its economic leverage is strongest before the midterms, which gives Tehran an incentive to intensify pressure now. But America has its own clock. Even with tankers moving through Hormuz under U.S. protection, Eyre says the system cannot simply continue indefinitely. Shipping remains expensive, millions of barrels per day are still missing, and U.S. naval readiness makes permanent escort operations unrealistic. “It’s not sustainable.” That is the part that matters. Washington’s strategy assumes Iran eventually cracks under economic pressure. Iran’s strategy assumes the economic and military cost of containing it eventually becomes intolerable for Washington. Neither side needs to defeat the other outright. They just need the other side’s clock to expire first. Brandon Weichert Alan Eyre

Mario Nawfal

225,668 görüntüleme • 7 gün önce

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Something very strange is happening in the Strait of Hormuz. Gulf oil exports are surging, tankers are being attacked, and the U.S is apparently taking fire almost every day without hitting back. The Wall Street Journal, citing Kpler data, reports Gulf oil flows have recovered to almost 13 MILLION barrels per day through the Strait and alternative pipelines. Still below the pre-war 19 million, but dramatically higher than before. Iran, meanwhile, claims only seven or eight ships are passing through Hormuz each day, and only because Tehran allows them to. And this is where things get dangerous. If Washington really is breaking Iran's grip on Hormuz, Tehran faces a brutal choice: Accept that its greatest piece of economic leverage is disappearing, or escalate until the world remembers it still controls the battlefield. That may already be starting. Three oil and gas tankers were reportedly struck today, another yesterday, while Saudi energy infrastructure is again coming under attack. So rising Gulf oil exports aren't necessarily evidence that the Hormuz crisis is ending. They could be the very thing that makes its next phase considerably more violent. Brandon Weichert

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Something very strange is happening in the Strait of Hormuz. Gulf oil exports are surging, tankers are being attacked, and the U.S is apparently taking fire almost every day without hitting back. The Wall Street Journal, citing Kpler data, reports Gulf oil flows have recovered to almost 13 MILLION barrels per day through the Strait and alternative pipelines. Still below the pre-war 19 million, but dramatically higher than before. Iran, meanwhile, claims only seven or eight ships are passing through Hormuz each day, and only because Tehran allows them to. And this is where things get dangerous. If Washington really is breaking Iran's grip on Hormuz, Tehran faces a brutal choice: Accept that its greatest piece of economic leverage is disappearing, or escalate until the world remembers it still controls the battlefield. That may already be starting. Three oil and gas tankers were reportedly struck today, another yesterday, while Saudi energy infrastructure is again coming under attack. So rising Gulf oil exports aren't necessarily evidence that the Hormuz crisis is ending. They could be the very thing that makes its next phase considerably more violent. Brandon Weichert

Mario Nawfal

322,662 görüntüleme • 4 gün önce

🇺🇸 🇮🇷 The U.S. ran the Strait of Hormuz with 24 warships in 1988... Today it's down to three. Malcolm Nance, former U.S. Navy intelligence officer, ran Operation Praying Mantis when the US eliminated the entire Iranian Navy in a single morning. His task force alone had three ships. Another three sat to the south. Eight more were in the Indian Ocean ready to flood the Strait if needed. Today the operation runs on three Arleigh Burkes and a couple of Littoral Combat Ships the Navy is already retiring. He calls it the most strategically incompetent group of people he has ever seen... Malcolm Nance

🇺🇸 🇮🇷 The U.S. ran the Strait of Hormuz with 24 warships in 1988... Today it's down to three. Malcolm Nance, former U.S. Navy intelligence officer, ran Operation Praying Mantis when the US eliminated the entire Iranian Navy in a single morning. His task force alone had three ships. Another three sat to the south. Eight more were in the Indian Ocean ready to flood the Strait if needed. Today the operation runs on three Arleigh Burkes and a couple of Littoral Combat Ships the Navy is already retiring. He calls it the most strategically incompetent group of people he has ever seen... Malcolm Nance

Mario Nawfal

97,174 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran may be expanding the Hormuz war into the Gulf of Oman The assumption was that if Iran squeezed the Strait of Hormuz, shipping could simply find ways around the problem. Matthew Hoh thinks Iran may now be targeting the workaround. If Malcolm Nance's analysis of the Larak launchers is correct, the sea mines weren't necessarily intended for Hormuz itself. They may have been fired toward the Gulf of Oman and the approaches around Fujairah, where tankers cluster and millions of barrels of oil move every day. That would mark an important shift. Iran has repeatedly warned that the conflict wouldn't remain confined to Hormuz. Hoh believes this could be Tehran beginning to make good on that threat, extending its ability to disrupt shipping beyond the Strait itself. And he argues the timing exposes a much bigger American problem. A leaked military readiness assessment reportedly says only around a quarter of U.S. Navy destroyers are deployable. Hoh says the Navy is already struggling with ships, aircraft and munitions after six months of war. Which makes Washington's claims that it can reliably escort shipping through Hormuz increasingly difficult to square with its own military condition. Hoh's conclusion is striking: If U.S.-escorted shipping really is moving safely through the Strait, he suspects there may already be an understanding with Tehran allowing it to happen. Because otherwise, he doesn't think the Navy can actually do it. Matthew Hoh

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran may be expanding the Hormuz war into the Gulf of Oman The assumption was that if Iran squeezed the Strait of Hormuz, shipping could simply find ways around the problem. Matthew Hoh thinks Iran may now be targeting the workaround. If Malcolm Nance's analysis of the Larak launchers is correct, the sea mines weren't necessarily intended for Hormuz itself. They may have been fired toward the Gulf of Oman and the approaches around Fujairah, where tankers cluster and millions of barrels of oil move every day. That would mark an important shift. Iran has repeatedly warned that the conflict wouldn't remain confined to Hormuz. Hoh believes this could be Tehran beginning to make good on that threat, extending its ability to disrupt shipping beyond the Strait itself. And he argues the timing exposes a much bigger American problem. A leaked military readiness assessment reportedly says only around a quarter of U.S. Navy destroyers are deployable. Hoh says the Navy is already struggling with ships, aircraft and munitions after six months of war. Which makes Washington's claims that it can reliably escort shipping through Hormuz increasingly difficult to square with its own military condition. Hoh's conclusion is striking: If U.S.-escorted shipping really is moving safely through the Strait, he suspects there may already be an understanding with Tehran allowing it to happen. Because otherwise, he doesn't think the Navy can actually do it. Matthew Hoh

Mario Nawfal

241,715 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 There are more than 15 U.S. warships in the Middle East right now, and every single one of them can stop a ship. There are aircraft carriers, assault ships, destroyers, and even submarines that don't show up on anyone's radar. On board: Marines trained to take ships by force and Navy SEALs who've already intercepted a fleeing tanker in the middle of the Atlantic. Good luck picking which one to run from. Source: Barron’s

🇺🇸🇮🇷 There are more than 15 U.S. warships in the Middle East right now, and every single one of them can stop a ship. There are aircraft carriers, assault ships, destroyers, and even submarines that don't show up on anyone's radar. On board: Marines trained to take ships by force and Navy SEALs who've already intercepted a fleeing tanker in the middle of the Atlantic. Good luck picking which one to run from. Source: Barron’s

Mario Nawfal

118,149 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The most effective strategy currently available to the administration would be to simply walk away from a deal that isn't working. A blockade is currently in place that is causing significant damage and creating new adversaries for the U.S. globally. Professor Steve Hanke points out that the "madman theory" of attacking and denying only works if it eventually leads to a verifiable victory. By forcing the rest of the world to figure out the Strait of Hormuz on their own, the U.S. could potentially avoid further economic ramifications. Steve Hanke

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The most effective strategy currently available to the administration would be to simply walk away from a deal that isn't working. A blockade is currently in place that is causing significant damage and creating new adversaries for the U.S. globally. Professor Steve Hanke points out that the "madman theory" of attacking and denying only works if it eventually leads to a verifiable victory. By forcing the rest of the world to figure out the Strait of Hormuz on their own, the U.S. could potentially avoid further economic ramifications. Steve Hanke

Mario Nawfal

89,431 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce

JUST IN: Despite two U.S. aircraft carriers and with heavy air cover, the United States could not keep the Gulf’s biggest oil bypass open. Fujairah Port has effectively ceased operations, removing roughly 6 million barrels per day from the market, according to HFI Research . HFI says the hub is now “all but dead” after the IRGC targeted two VLCCs. MarineTraffic data shows fewer than a dozen visible vessels crossed Hormuz in the past 24 hours, versus the normal 130+ daily transits. All used Iran’s traffic scheme; none used the U.S.-backed southern route through Omani waters. Some ships may be moving with AIS disabled, but visible traffic remains severely disrupted. Video credit: HFI Research from MarineTraffic

JUST IN: Despite two U.S. aircraft carriers and with heavy air cover, the United States could not keep the Gulf’s biggest oil bypass open. Fujairah Port has effectively ceased operations, removing roughly 6 million barrels per day from the market, according to HFI Research . HFI says the hub is now “all but dead” after the IRGC targeted two VLCCs. MarineTraffic data shows fewer than a dozen visible vessels crossed Hormuz in the past 24 hours, versus the normal 130+ daily transits. All used Iran’s traffic scheme; none used the U.S.-backed southern route through Omani waters. Some ships may be moving with AIS disabled, but visible traffic remains severely disrupted. Video credit: HFI Research from MarineTraffic

The Hormuz Report

145,472 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce