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Recession Indicator

Midwest Antiquarian

38,699 subscribers

10,651 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr •via X (Twitter)

Anya Rossi• Live Now

Private livecam show

9 Kommentare

Profilbild von Midwest Antiquarian

Midwest Antiquarianvor 1 Jahr

Sunbelt migration reverse

Profilbild von Molly

Mollyvor 1 Jahr

We are so back.

Profilbild von waypat

waypatvor 1 Jahr

Bro, like a million Illinois residents just lost healthcare

Profilbild von Midwest Antiquarian

Midwest Antiquarianvor 1 Jahr

It’s about to be a mess

Profilbild von the prince with a thousand enemies ♂️

the prince with a thousand enemies ♂️vor 1 Jahr

Moved to the suburbs instead of the north side

Profilbild von @userid67

@userid67vor 1 Jahr

Let's check in after winter. Oh ya and then the taxes

Profilbild von The Spirit of the Midwest

The Spirit of the Midwestvor 1 Jahr

Nature is healing.

Profilbild von Mikita 🇺🇸🫡

Mikita 🇺🇸🫡vor 1 Jahr

Why would someone do this

Profilbild von Loan Shark

Loan Sharkvor 1 Jahr

Honestly don’t think it’s recession I think it’s an over correction on sunbelt migration. I’m in PHX and since 2020, we had a ton of CA residents move in… anyways housing skyrocketed and it’s hard to build here bc of water and fed/NA land. Locals getting outpriced

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Major recession indicator: the number of people who are willing to stand in line for 2+ hours for a free burger on National Burger Day. Value is ~ $15. Lots of employers paying their employees serious dollars to stand in line for a free burger.

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Is the boom going to bust? “The 1988 Australian property boom saw national home values surge by a record 31.2%, making it one of the largest single-year value spikes in the country's recorded real estate history. This massive growth occurred despite aggressive economic conditions, with home loan interest rates hovering near 15% and rising. Why the 1988 Boom Happened: •The 1987 Stock Market Crash: Global stock market instability caused a massive shift in capital, with investors pulling money out of the share market and pouring it directly into Australian real estate. •Negative Gearing: After a brief period where the tax break was abolished, negative gearing was reinstated in 1987, heavily incentivizing property investment. •Credit Deregulation: Following the floating of the Australian dollar, the deregulation of the banking sector and the licensing of foreign banks made loans much more accessible, driving up auction bids.” •••••••••• This is an insightful clip from the ABC 1988 when house prices shot up dramatically for the reasons listed above. I’m old enough to remember that “property boom” as it was my first year out of school and my brother had bought a unit in Auchenflower for $62,500 which seemed like a lot of money at the time. The boom forced the RBA into raising the cash rate to 17.5% by 1990 causing a severe recession unemployment to hit 10%. Immigration was also curtailed as a result of the housing boom. Immigration dropped from around 150,000 to less than 100,000 by the mid 90’s. The decrease was partly due to the Fitzgerald Immigration Report released in 1988 that called for stricter immigration controls. He was not called a racist. Housing debt and immigration is much higher today whilst the cash rate is much lower at 4.35%. House prices eased by 8% in the early 1990’s. Time will only tell what happens to housing prices going forward but it’s a very important indicator that is going to determine that future prosperity of our nation.

Is the boom going to bust? “The 1988 Australian property boom saw national home values surge by a record 31.2%, making it one of the largest single-year value spikes in the country's recorded real estate history. This massive growth occurred despite aggressive economic conditions, with home loan interest rates hovering near 15% and rising. Why the 1988 Boom Happened: •The 1987 Stock Market Crash: Global stock market instability caused a massive shift in capital, with investors pulling money out of the share market and pouring it directly into Australian real estate. •Negative Gearing: After a brief period where the tax break was abolished, negative gearing was reinstated in 1987, heavily incentivizing property investment. •Credit Deregulation: Following the floating of the Australian dollar, the deregulation of the banking sector and the licensing of foreign banks made loans much more accessible, driving up auction bids.” •••••••••• This is an insightful clip from the ABC 1988 when house prices shot up dramatically for the reasons listed above. I’m old enough to remember that “property boom” as it was my first year out of school and my brother had bought a unit in Auchenflower for $62,500 which seemed like a lot of money at the time. The boom forced the RBA into raising the cash rate to 17.5% by 1990 causing a severe recession unemployment to hit 10%. Immigration was also curtailed as a result of the housing boom. Immigration dropped from around 150,000 to less than 100,000 by the mid 90’s. The decrease was partly due to the Fitzgerald Immigration Report released in 1988 that called for stricter immigration controls. He was not called a racist. Housing debt and immigration is much higher today whilst the cash rate is much lower at 4.35%. House prices eased by 8% in the early 1990’s. Time will only tell what happens to housing prices going forward but it’s a very important indicator that is going to determine that future prosperity of our nation.

Gerard Rennick

14,610 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

Warren Buffett spent three years quietly selling everything while the rest of Wall Street was throwing a party. Between 2022 and 2024, Berkshire Hathaway sold a net $172 billion in stocks while buying almost nothing in return. In 2024 alone, he offloaded $134 billion in equities, a pace of selling so fast that most investors did not even notice it was happening. He sat through a bull market, watched stocks climb to the moon, and kept stacking cash anyway. The result is $373.3 billion sitting in Treasury bills right now, the largest corporate cash hoard in the history of American business. That number is not a mistake or fear, it is a loaded weapon waiting for the right moment to fire. His own market valuation signal, the Buffett Indicator, is now sitting at 220 percent, a level that has only been higher during the dot-com bubble of 1999. The Shiller CAPE ratio, another valuation measure, recently hit 39.42, which is the second-highest reading ever recorded outside of that same dot-com era. Buffett has previously said that when the indicator crosses 200 percent, it is like playing with fire. Now he has confirmed it publicly in an interview, when a big market decline comes, Berkshire will deploy, and they will deploy because businesses become attractive, not because someone told him the bottom is in. He is not guessing at timing, he is simply waiting until the math works in his favor again. When Berkshire had just $31 billion in cash going into 2008, Buffett turned that crisis into over $16 billion in pure profit through deals with Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and General Electric. Today he has $373 billion, twelve times that firepower sitting ready while recession warnings are louder than they have been in years. Goldman Sachs and Capital Economics have both warned that the S&P 500 could face a double-digit decline if earnings disappoint or economic conditions weaken further. Berkshire has already outperformed the market by 23 percentage points in 2026 alone, simply by doing nothing while everyone else lost money. Meanwhile, that $373 billion in Treasury bills is generating roughly $13 billion in risk-free interest every single year while Buffett waits. He is being paid billions to be patient, and the patience itself is the strategy. Apple is still his largest single equity holding roughly 19 percent of the entire portfolio and he called it publicly better than any business Berkshire owns outright. He admitted he sold Apple too soon but made over $100 billion pre-tax on the trade anyway, which is the kind of mistake most people spend a lifetime dreaming about. The new CEO Greg Abel has described the cash pile as a "strategic asset" that allows Berkshire to act decisively when others are fearful which is the clearest signal yet that a major move is coming. When Berkshire finally pulls the trigger, it will not be a cautious nibble, it will be one of the largest single capital deployments in the history of financial markets. The only thing left to figure out is what price breaks him off the sideline. Based on every signal he has sent over the last three years, that price is getting closer.

Warren Buffett spent three years quietly selling everything while the rest of Wall Street was throwing a party. Between 2022 and 2024, Berkshire Hathaway sold a net $172 billion in stocks while buying almost nothing in return. In 2024 alone, he offloaded $134 billion in equities, a pace of selling so fast that most investors did not even notice it was happening. He sat through a bull market, watched stocks climb to the moon, and kept stacking cash anyway. The result is $373.3 billion sitting in Treasury bills right now, the largest corporate cash hoard in the history of American business. That number is not a mistake or fear, it is a loaded weapon waiting for the right moment to fire. His own market valuation signal, the Buffett Indicator, is now sitting at 220 percent, a level that has only been higher during the dot-com bubble of 1999. The Shiller CAPE ratio, another valuation measure, recently hit 39.42, which is the second-highest reading ever recorded outside of that same dot-com era. Buffett has previously said that when the indicator crosses 200 percent, it is like playing with fire. Now he has confirmed it publicly in an interview, when a big market decline comes, Berkshire will deploy, and they will deploy because businesses become attractive, not because someone told him the bottom is in. He is not guessing at timing, he is simply waiting until the math works in his favor again. When Berkshire had just $31 billion in cash going into 2008, Buffett turned that crisis into over $16 billion in pure profit through deals with Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, and General Electric. Today he has $373 billion, twelve times that firepower sitting ready while recession warnings are louder than they have been in years. Goldman Sachs and Capital Economics have both warned that the S&P 500 could face a double-digit decline if earnings disappoint or economic conditions weaken further. Berkshire has already outperformed the market by 23 percentage points in 2026 alone, simply by doing nothing while everyone else lost money. Meanwhile, that $373 billion in Treasury bills is generating roughly $13 billion in risk-free interest every single year while Buffett waits. He is being paid billions to be patient, and the patience itself is the strategy. Apple is still his largest single equity holding roughly 19 percent of the entire portfolio and he called it publicly better than any business Berkshire owns outright. He admitted he sold Apple too soon but made over $100 billion pre-tax on the trade anyway, which is the kind of mistake most people spend a lifetime dreaming about. The new CEO Greg Abel has described the cash pile as a "strategic asset" that allows Berkshire to act decisively when others are fearful which is the clearest signal yet that a major move is coming. When Berkshire finally pulls the trigger, it will not be a cautious nibble, it will be one of the largest single capital deployments in the history of financial markets. The only thing left to figure out is what price breaks him off the sideline. Based on every signal he has sent over the last three years, that price is getting closer.

StockMarket.News

687,741 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

🚨 WARNING: THE GREAT RECESSION IS ABOUT TO REPEAT!! While the entire market is blindly chasing AI narratives. The smartest investors from 2008 are already positioning for a MASSIVE RESET. Michael Burry predicted the housing crash before anyone else. And now he is betting AGAINST the AI boom. Scion's Q3 2025 13F filing disclosed over $1 BILLION IN SHORTS. Scion opened huge bearish positions against Nvidia and Palantir worth nearly $1.1 BILLION. Burry believes the market is massively mispricing AI companies. His main argument is simple: "Big tech firms are extending the “lifespan” of AI hardware in accounting reports to inflate profits." AI chips become outdated because competition moves too quickly. Burry says this accounting trick artificially added around $176 BILLION in fake profits across the market. Things got so extreme that, in late 2025, he even restricted outside investors from entering his fund. And then there’s Buffett: He isn’t screaming on TV or making dramatic moves. But his actions say enough. The Buffett Indicator has climbed above 227%. One of the highest levels ever recorded. Buffett previously warned that levels above 200% are “playing with fire.” Meanwhile, Berkshire Hathaway is sitting on a RECORD $373 BILLION cash pile. That’s not accidental. Buffett appears to be waiting for the AI bubble to crack so he can buy great companies at distressed prices—exactly like after 2008. Here’s why some believe the AI collapse could actually happen: > ROI PROBLEM Over $600 BILLION has already been poured into AI infrastructure. But many AI businesses still struggle to generate profits that even cover operating costs. If real monetization doesn’t arrive soon, investor confidence could collapse fast. > CHATGPT GROWTH SLOWING Reports claim OpenAI failed to hit internal growth expectations. Losses are reportedly still massive, while user growth is no longer exploding like before. When the market leader starts slowing down, panic spreads quickly. > DOTCOM BUBBLE PARALLELS This is starting to resemble 1999 all over again. Back then, investors massively overbuilt internet infrastructure. Today, the same thing may be happening with AI chips and data centers. This sounds SCARY, but I will keep you updated on everything here. When I rotate money, I will post my moves here so my FOLLOWERS can SAVE their money. Follow me and turn NOTIFICATIONS ON, as I will share my strategy soon. Many will regret not following me earlier...

🚨 WARNING: THE GREAT RECESSION IS ABOUT TO REPEAT!! While the entire market is blindly chasing AI narratives. The smartest investors from 2008 are already positioning for a MASSIVE RESET. Michael Burry predicted the housing crash before anyone else. And now he is betting AGAINST the AI boom. Scion's Q3 2025 13F filing disclosed over $1 BILLION IN SHORTS. Scion opened huge bearish positions against Nvidia and Palantir worth nearly $1.1 BILLION. Burry believes the market is massively mispricing AI companies. His main argument is simple: "Big tech firms are extending the “lifespan” of AI hardware in accounting reports to inflate profits." AI chips become outdated because competition moves too quickly. Burry says this accounting trick artificially added around $176 BILLION in fake profits across the market. Things got so extreme that, in late 2025, he even restricted outside investors from entering his fund. And then there’s Buffett: He isn’t screaming on TV or making dramatic moves. But his actions say enough. The Buffett Indicator has climbed above 227%. One of the highest levels ever recorded. Buffett previously warned that levels above 200% are “playing with fire.” Meanwhile, Berkshire Hathaway is sitting on a RECORD $373 BILLION cash pile. That’s not accidental. Buffett appears to be waiting for the AI bubble to crack so he can buy great companies at distressed prices—exactly like after 2008. Here’s why some believe the AI collapse could actually happen: > ROI PROBLEM Over $600 BILLION has already been poured into AI infrastructure. But many AI businesses still struggle to generate profits that even cover operating costs. If real monetization doesn’t arrive soon, investor confidence could collapse fast. > CHATGPT GROWTH SLOWING Reports claim OpenAI failed to hit internal growth expectations. Losses are reportedly still massive, while user growth is no longer exploding like before. When the market leader starts slowing down, panic spreads quickly. > DOTCOM BUBBLE PARALLELS This is starting to resemble 1999 all over again. Back then, investors massively overbuilt internet infrastructure. Today, the same thing may be happening with AI chips and data centers. This sounds SCARY, but I will keep you updated on everything here. When I rotate money, I will post my moves here so my FOLLOWERS can SAVE their money. Follow me and turn NOTIFICATIONS ON, as I will share my strategy soon. Many will regret not following me earlier...

ᴛʀᴀᴄᴇʀ

273,788 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten