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Remember when Bill Gates said electric semi trucks would “probably never be a practical solution”? “The problem is that batteries are big and heavy. The more weight you’re trying to move, the more batteries you need to power the vehicle. But the more batteries you use, the more weight...

80,864 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce •via X (Twitter)

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More Batteries vs. Submarines Now that the German TKMS and the French Naval Group have massively adopted lithium-ion batteries, following the Japanese lead, this is consolidating as a major trend, just as I had predicted. The next stage will be solid-state batteries, and at that point, we'll essentially be discussing only speed and submerged endurance in comparison to nuclear submarines. Since solid-state batteries are lighter, they will allow for a greater number to be installed, freeing up space for more powerful propulsion systems. Naval Group has already sold a version of the Scorpène to Indonesia capable of remaining submerged for up to 80 days. That's with lithium-ion batteries. Imagine what this could exceed, more than double, with solid-state batteries. In practical terms, a more powerful engine combined with solid-state batteries in the proportions that Naval Group is now using in the Scorpène would provide three times the speed, meaning something like 10–15 knots at constant speed while maintaining around 50 days submerged. This would give a range of 40,000–50,000 km, requiring less than one hour on the surface for a fast recharge. For speeds above 25 knots, simply adding more batteries and a better engine would suffice, as the solid-state system has high power output. All this at 15–20% of the cost of a nuclear submarine. And if the choice is to power the batteries with a micro-reactor, it would cost 25–35% of a conventional nuclear one. Then someone will say: “But a nuclear sub can stay submerged for years.” That makes no difference at all, since even with around 60 days of endurance, the crew still needs to surface to resupply provisions. The big advantages remain: battery-powered subs are superior in silence, and speed can be addressed with larger battery packs.

Patricia Marins

103,224 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce

Those investing in submarines today may be wasting money. A Virginia-class submarine, powered by an S9G reactor, has a submerged displacement of around 10,000 tons and costs approximately $4–5.8 billion. Its top speed is over 30 knots. Now imagine a much smaller reactor, with power and weight around 15% of the Virginia's, used solely to continuously recharge a solid-state battery bank. Solid-state batteries weigh about half as much as lithium-ion batteries while offering 2-3x more energy capacity. In practice, this means that with the same battery weight, such a sub could achieve roughly 3x the energy gain, In terms of speed, solid-state batteries deliver double or higher discharge rates (potentially 10–20C vs. 5–10C for lithium-ion), ideal for sustained sprints above 30 knots lasting many days and a cruising speed around 25 knots. All this with 15% less overall weight, much quieter operation on batteries alone, and the same endurance as a conventional nuclear sub. And the cost? A micro-reactor would be 15–25% the price of a conventional one, small, modular, low-temperature/low-pressure. This means that when a more modern reactor is needed, you simply swap the module. A micro-reactor paired with solid-state batteries could make a Virginia-class sub $1.2-1.6 billion cheaper, quieter, and leave far more space for weapons, additional batteries, or crew comfort. That's why this system would put all existing submarines at a disadvantage in terms of cost, space, and stealth. Those not adopting micro nuclear reactors can follow what the Germans, Japanese, and French are doing. The Japanese pioneered lithium-ion batteries with diesel chargers, giving their submarines excellent value for money. The Germans chose a fuel cell AIP system to recharge lithium-ion batteries, while the French opted for a similar Japanese-style approach with a battery configuration allowing up to 80 days endurance, making the new Scorpène highly competitive. Starting around 2030, production will shift to solid-state batteries, tripling the capacity of these conventional submarines and enabling silent navigation at around 25 knots for days,making them superior in stealth and speed to many nuclear submarines currently in service. Submarines powered by solid-state batteries, recharged via micro-reactors, fuel cells, or diesel, will be superior: better armed, cheaper, and stealthier than anything we know today.

Patricia Marins

288,419 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce