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Researching $HAWK HawkEye 360 Space/Defense/Sensing Just filed S-1. IPO likely early May. Last private valuation ~$2B. Net income positive (rare in Space sector, let alone prior to IPO). 🔹Only commercial company operating a large-scale (30+ sat) constellation of RF signals intelligence satellites. Detecting, geolocating, and analyzing hidden radio signals...

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YeahDave

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17,323 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад •via X (Twitter)

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🚨Palantir co-founder Joe Lonsdale says America's lead in space comes down to one man. "It's a huge advantage to us, chiefly because of Elon Musk." He calls space "critical for warfare" and says the US edge lets him "sleep at night a lot better, knowing that we're way ahead of our adversaries." But he thinks defense is only the beginning. "Ultimately space will be much bigger from things that are not defense." His prediction: data centers in orbit, plus some manufacturing. "You have Earth be like this environmental preserve, and you do more dirty things in space." Is SpaceX following the same path as GPS and the internet? Not really. GPS: The Pentagon paid for nearly all of it, about $10 billion through 2002. Private companies built the chips, receivers, and apps on top of a free signal. The internet: The Pentagon funded ARPANET. Then the civilian National Science Foundation took over, and private companies built nearly all of the physical network after 1995. SpaceX: NASA, not the Pentagon, was the early anchor customer. SpaceX had to sue the Air Force to compete for national security launches in 2014. Today about 20% of its revenue comes from the U.S. government, and Starlink customers bring in most of the rest. The government built GPS and seeded the internet. SpaceX grew out of NASA contracts into a commercial company the Pentagon now relies on. At SpaceX, the commercial side is already bigger. Next up: Starship's first orbital flight, carrying Starlink V3 satellites Musk says will eventually deliver 100x the bandwidth of today's network.
0:58

🚨Palantir co-founder Joe Lonsdale says America's lead in space comes down to one man. "It's a huge advantage to us, chiefly because of Elon Musk." He calls space "critical for warfare" and says the US edge lets him "sleep at night a lot better, knowing that we're way ahead of our adversaries." But he thinks defense is only the beginning. "Ultimately space will be much bigger from things that are not defense." His prediction: data centers in orbit, plus some manufacturing. "You have Earth be like this environmental preserve, and you do more dirty things in space." Is SpaceX following the same path as GPS and the internet? Not really. GPS: The Pentagon paid for nearly all of it, about $10 billion through 2002. Private companies built the chips, receivers, and apps on top of a free signal. The internet: The Pentagon funded ARPANET. Then the civilian National Science Foundation took over, and private companies built nearly all of the physical network after 1995. SpaceX: NASA, not the Pentagon, was the early anchor customer. SpaceX had to sue the Air Force to compete for national security launches in 2014. Today about 20% of its revenue comes from the U.S. government, and Starlink customers bring in most of the rest. The government built GPS and seeded the internet. SpaceX grew out of NASA contracts into a commercial company the Pentagon now relies on. At SpaceX, the commercial side is already bigger. Next up: Starship's first orbital flight, carrying Starlink V3 satellites Musk says will eventually deliver 100x the bandwidth of today's network.

KanekoaTheGreat

37,413 просмотров • 3 дней назад

$FLNC Batteries, Energy Storage 3.8B Market cap My take: A spicy shorter-term "battery meta" play with a potential long-term "Amazon" thesis. $FLNC is in a capital-intensive expansion phase with thin margins generating billions in revenue but very little in net profit Key: This is a capital-intensive INTEGRATOR, not a battery manufacturer. They don't make lithium-ion batteries but rather procure them (roughly 50% from China and more recently aiming for 50% from USA). They provide large grid-scale battery integration into power systems with roles in: 🔹Advisory, procurement, & build-outs. 🔹AI driven battery fleet management software 🔹Long-term servicing ------------------------- THE "SCALE" Global Scale: Operates in 40+ markets with one of the largest deployed fleets of energy storage projects in the world. Credibility and Reach: Formed as a joint venture between Siemens (an industrial manufacturing giant) and AES (a global utility and power generator) with massive industry backing. Massive Backlog: As of their last report, their backlog was already enormous at ~$4.9 billion. They signed an additional ~$1.1 billion in new contracts after this last quarter ended (including two massive projects in Australia) Major Wins: They can operate at scale and were also just awarded Europe's largest ever BESS project (a massive 4 GWh system in Germany). ------------------------- THE "PROFIT PROBLEM" Wafer-Thin Margins: Out of $602.5 million of revenue in Q3 FY2025, their net income was just $6.9M (a ~1.1% net profit margin). (That 14% number you see is their GAAP Gross Margin, which is already thin, but I'd argue the net profit is the current story and why a company doing $2.6B in revenue is valued at $3.8B). Weak Guidance: FY2025 Adj. EBITDA guidance is just $0 to $20M despite forecasting over $2.6B in revenue. Trade Policy Risk: Highly exposed to US-China trade policy, which has weighed on profits. Roughly half of their battery cells come from China which hurts their tax credits. For these reasons they are strategically increasing their US sourcing now with a supply agreement with AESC for U.S. manufactured battery cells, primarily from AESC's facility in Tennessee. "Strong-ish" Growth: Revenue was up 24.7% YoY. This is good, but not explosive given the market's potential, and it's clearly not translating to the bottom line yet. For these reasons this is currently a smaller short term battery meta play for me that has shown very strong recent stock technical performance despite the significant broader market weakness. When institutions want a "cheap" de-risked pure battery play, I think they will reach for $FLNC. The long term potential case is that the story here is the classic "Amazon" model: Is $FLNC a company that's just in a capital-intensive expansion phase, or is it a low-margin business forever? For years, $AMZN wasn't highly profitable "on paper" as virtually all resources were spent on massive scaling. When the profit switch flipped, the stock exploded. $FLNC is in a similar "scale-at-all-costs" phase with the potential that servicing and software will be the future AWS higher margin story. Their pivot to US sourcing isn't just about "surviving" trade policy; it's about building a protected, high-growth, and potentially higher-margin business in the U.S. September 2025 saw their first shipment of U.S. domestic-content BESS systems. Depending on how this capital-intensive phase goes, they could evolve into a long-term play for me. If they survive the cash burn, scale successfully, and flip that profit switch, the "Amazon of batteries" thesis could play out. Relevance: $TSLA $EOSE $BE $GEV $STEM $ENS $GWH $ENS $TE $FSLR
3:10

$FLNC Batteries, Energy Storage 3.8B Market cap My take: A spicy shorter-term "battery meta" play with a potential long-term "Amazon" thesis. $FLNC is in a capital-intensive expansion phase with thin margins generating billions in revenue but very little in net profit Key: This is a capital-intensive INTEGRATOR, not a battery manufacturer. They don't make lithium-ion batteries but rather procure them (roughly 50% from China and more recently aiming for 50% from USA). They provide large grid-scale battery integration into power systems with roles in: 🔹Advisory, procurement, & build-outs. 🔹AI driven battery fleet management software 🔹Long-term servicing ------------------------- THE "SCALE" Global Scale: Operates in 40+ markets with one of the largest deployed fleets of energy storage projects in the world. Credibility and Reach: Formed as a joint venture between Siemens (an industrial manufacturing giant) and AES (a global utility and power generator) with massive industry backing. Massive Backlog: As of their last report, their backlog was already enormous at ~$4.9 billion. They signed an additional ~$1.1 billion in new contracts after this last quarter ended (including two massive projects in Australia) Major Wins: They can operate at scale and were also just awarded Europe's largest ever BESS project (a massive 4 GWh system in Germany). ------------------------- THE "PROFIT PROBLEM" Wafer-Thin Margins: Out of $602.5 million of revenue in Q3 FY2025, their net income was just $6.9M (a ~1.1% net profit margin). (That 14% number you see is their GAAP Gross Margin, which is already thin, but I'd argue the net profit is the current story and why a company doing $2.6B in revenue is valued at $3.8B). Weak Guidance: FY2025 Adj. EBITDA guidance is just $0 to $20M despite forecasting over $2.6B in revenue. Trade Policy Risk: Highly exposed to US-China trade policy, which has weighed on profits. Roughly half of their battery cells come from China which hurts their tax credits. For these reasons they are strategically increasing their US sourcing now with a supply agreement with AESC for U.S. manufactured battery cells, primarily from AESC's facility in Tennessee. "Strong-ish" Growth: Revenue was up 24.7% YoY. This is good, but not explosive given the market's potential, and it's clearly not translating to the bottom line yet. For these reasons this is currently a smaller short term battery meta play for me that has shown very strong recent stock technical performance despite the significant broader market weakness. When institutions want a "cheap" de-risked pure battery play, I think they will reach for $FLNC. The long term potential case is that the story here is the classic "Amazon" model: Is $FLNC a company that's just in a capital-intensive expansion phase, or is it a low-margin business forever? For years, $AMZN wasn't highly profitable "on paper" as virtually all resources were spent on massive scaling. When the profit switch flipped, the stock exploded. $FLNC is in a similar "scale-at-all-costs" phase with the potential that servicing and software will be the future AWS higher margin story. Their pivot to US sourcing isn't just about "surviving" trade policy; it's about building a protected, high-growth, and potentially higher-margin business in the U.S. September 2025 saw their first shipment of U.S. domestic-content BESS systems. Depending on how this capital-intensive phase goes, they could evolve into a long-term play for me. If they survive the cash burn, scale successfully, and flip that profit switch, the "Amazon of batteries" thesis could play out. Relevance: $TSLA $EOSE $BE $GEV $STEM $ENS $GWH $ENS $TE $FSLR

YeahDave

27,279 просмотров • 10 месяцев назад

$HIMS| Adjustment on Growth toward 2030🧵 Not Financial Advice! FY2025: Revenue: $2.35B or 58% YoY (weightloss $740), Core $1.61B FY2026: Revenue $3.2B(36%) where weightloss may be down by 10-15% or flat. FY2027: Revenue $4.16B(30%) FY2028: Revenue: $5.2B(25%) FY2029 Revenue: $6.5B(25%) FY2030 Revenue: $8.12B(25%) I expect management to ramp up buyback from FCF generation while company is trading at under 2x P/S andrewdudum. The discontinuation of Hims & Hers' compounded oral semaglutide pill in early February 2026(after 2 days), prompted by FDA regulatory actions and legal pressures from Novo Nordisk, introduces near-term challenges to the weight loss segment but does not derail the company's broader growth trajectory, as it pivots aggressively toward diversification and high-potential expansions The weight loss category bolstered by liraglutide injectables, generic semaglutide in Canada, and non-GLP-1 personalized kits retains strong momentum, contributing approximately 31% of total revenue in 2025 and projected to grow at 15-20% annually through 2030, down from prior 60%+ rates but still adding $150-250 million yearly through cross-selling and retention. Offsetting this moderation are ambitious new expansions: international markets, now accounting for an initial 5-10% of revenue but scaling to 20% by 2030 via Canada entry (projected 10% growth contribution in 2026 from generic semaglutide and Livewell acquisition) and Europe/UK via Zava (adding 8-12% incremental growth through telehealth in Germany, France, and Ireland); diagnostics and labs, launched in late 2025 with Quest Diagnostics partnership and YourBio Health's pain-free blood sampling tech, offering 50-120 biomarker tests across heart, metabolism, hormones, inflammation, and stress, expected to generate 12-18% of total revenue by 2027 and ramp to a standalone $1 billion segment by 2030. Preventive care and longevity initiatives, set for full 2026 rollout including peptide manufacturing (via acquired U.S. facility, contributing 10-15% to growth through vertical integration and supply control), coenzymes, GLP/GIP blends for performance and recovery, and a $325 million Grail investment enabling multi-cancer early detection blood tests (projected to add 8-12% revenue uplift starting in 2026 by enhancing subscription retention); and hormone health expansions like menopause/perimenopause and low testosterone treatments, already driving 10% of 2025 growth and poised for 20-25% annual expansion through data-driven personalization. Multi-cancer early detection (MCED) blood testing via the Galleri® test from GRAIL in the prior breakdown, even though it was bundled under longevity/preventive care. This is a significant new offering launched on February 4, 2026, providing subscribers (via the Labs platform) access to a simple annual blood test that screens for signals shared by over 50 types of cancer (including hard-to-detect ones like pancreatic, liver, ovarian, and lung) before symptoms appear. Hims & Hers is offering it at a discounted ~$700 (vs. retail $949), following their participation in GRAIL's $325 million private placement investment in late 2025, which strengthens the partnership and positions this as a core pillar of proactive/longevity care. This could help push Average growth to 30-35% vs 28.2%(my above revised projection). These levers, combined with a subscriber base exceeding 2.5 million (up 31% YoY) and AI-enhanced platform efficiency under new CTO leadership, support an upward revision to growth rates targeting 22-25% CAGR from 2026-2030 to meet the company's $6.5 billion revenue goal, far outpacing prior conservative estimates of mid-teens expansion. This high-growth scenario assumes execution on global scaling, regulatory navigation (FDA approvals for compounded alternatives), and margin recovery to 74-78% via vertical integration, positioning Hims & Hers as a comprehensive digital health ecosystem rather than a GLP-1-dependent player, with potential upside from emerging trends like peptide demand (up 144% in Google searches) and proactive wellness adoption. Not Financial Advice!
3:31

$HIMS| Adjustment on Growth toward 2030🧵 Not Financial Advice! FY2025: Revenue: $2.35B or 58% YoY (weightloss $740), Core $1.61B FY2026: Revenue $3.2B(36%) where weightloss may be down by 10-15% or flat. FY2027: Revenue $4.16B(30%) FY2028: Revenue: $5.2B(25%) FY2029 Revenue: $6.5B(25%) FY2030 Revenue: $8.12B(25%) I expect management to ramp up buyback from FCF generation while company is trading at under 2x P/S andrewdudum. The discontinuation of Hims & Hers' compounded oral semaglutide pill in early February 2026(after 2 days), prompted by FDA regulatory actions and legal pressures from Novo Nordisk, introduces near-term challenges to the weight loss segment but does not derail the company's broader growth trajectory, as it pivots aggressively toward diversification and high-potential expansions The weight loss category bolstered by liraglutide injectables, generic semaglutide in Canada, and non-GLP-1 personalized kits retains strong momentum, contributing approximately 31% of total revenue in 2025 and projected to grow at 15-20% annually through 2030, down from prior 60%+ rates but still adding $150-250 million yearly through cross-selling and retention. Offsetting this moderation are ambitious new expansions: international markets, now accounting for an initial 5-10% of revenue but scaling to 20% by 2030 via Canada entry (projected 10% growth contribution in 2026 from generic semaglutide and Livewell acquisition) and Europe/UK via Zava (adding 8-12% incremental growth through telehealth in Germany, France, and Ireland); diagnostics and labs, launched in late 2025 with Quest Diagnostics partnership and YourBio Health's pain-free blood sampling tech, offering 50-120 biomarker tests across heart, metabolism, hormones, inflammation, and stress, expected to generate 12-18% of total revenue by 2027 and ramp to a standalone $1 billion segment by 2030. Preventive care and longevity initiatives, set for full 2026 rollout including peptide manufacturing (via acquired U.S. facility, contributing 10-15% to growth through vertical integration and supply control), coenzymes, GLP/GIP blends for performance and recovery, and a $325 million Grail investment enabling multi-cancer early detection blood tests (projected to add 8-12% revenue uplift starting in 2026 by enhancing subscription retention); and hormone health expansions like menopause/perimenopause and low testosterone treatments, already driving 10% of 2025 growth and poised for 20-25% annual expansion through data-driven personalization. Multi-cancer early detection (MCED) blood testing via the Galleri® test from GRAIL in the prior breakdown, even though it was bundled under longevity/preventive care. This is a significant new offering launched on February 4, 2026, providing subscribers (via the Labs platform) access to a simple annual blood test that screens for signals shared by over 50 types of cancer (including hard-to-detect ones like pancreatic, liver, ovarian, and lung) before symptoms appear. Hims & Hers is offering it at a discounted ~$700 (vs. retail $949), following their participation in GRAIL's $325 million private placement investment in late 2025, which strengthens the partnership and positions this as a core pillar of proactive/longevity care. This could help push Average growth to 30-35% vs 28.2%(my above revised projection). These levers, combined with a subscriber base exceeding 2.5 million (up 31% YoY) and AI-enhanced platform efficiency under new CTO leadership, support an upward revision to growth rates targeting 22-25% CAGR from 2026-2030 to meet the company's $6.5 billion revenue goal, far outpacing prior conservative estimates of mid-teens expansion. This high-growth scenario assumes execution on global scaling, regulatory navigation (FDA approvals for compounded alternatives), and margin recovery to 74-78% via vertical integration, positioning Hims & Hers as a comprehensive digital health ecosystem rather than a GLP-1-dependent player, with potential upside from emerging trends like peptide demand (up 144% in Google searches) and proactive wellness adoption. Not Financial Advice!

Mike

273,519 просмотров • 7 месяцев назад

$HIMS Price Target in last 2 months & Eucalyptus✍️ Not Fianancial Advice! DYOR! Jefferies – lowered to $24.50 (from $25.50). Needham (Ryan MacDonald) – Buy, raised $30 → $35 BofA Securities (Allen Lutz) – Neutral, lowered $28 → $25 Leerink – Hold, $25 (maintain). Jun 3, 2026: Canaccord – Buy, $32 (maintain) JPMorgan (Cory Carpenter): Overweight, $35→ $33 Most of these analysts demand proof of re-accelerated growth, and refused to add Eucalyptus revenue in. Refused to build model/forecast on $HIMS scaling in 9 different countries. Q2 2026 will have 26-30% growth. Q3 and Q4 2026 will add Eucalyptue revenue in. But Eucalyptus entire year revenue belongs to $HIMS, but bears will say how much respect they have to reporting standard so they won't add it to Q1 Q2. That is fine, but as for investors u should be aware that Eucalyptus had an annualized revenue run-rate of ~$450M+ (as of early 2026) and now with with $HIMS growth will accelerate, where $HIMS raised guidance Full Year 2026: $2.8B – $3.0B did not include Eucalyptus. Eucalyptus is projected to have $600-$900M for FY2026(or $750m mid point) Q1 Q2 2026 adds around $120 and $150m estimated. $HIMS guidance for Q2 without Eucalyptus is $680-$700m Or consolidated $HIMS Q1 2026 $608.1m + $120m=$728.1m or 24.2% YoY Q2 2026 $680m(guide) + $150m=$800m or 52% YoY Q3 2026 $800m(est) +$200m= $1B or 67% YoY Q4 2026 $912m (est) + $280m= $1.192B or 93% YoY A. FY2027 when included all Eucalyptus revenue =$3.72B(conservative)-$4B(High end) or 58.2%-70.2% B. FY2027 when excluded Eucalyptus Q1 Q2 revenue =$3.48B(conseravtive)-$3.7B(High end) or 48%-57.4% Short sellers will say Eucalyptus is inorganic growth and they will only use B calculation above because they respect reporting standard. Or how they will wait until FY2027 so bears have time to exit at cheap share price. Eucalyptus is a strategic platform builder with synergy potential, not just a pure revenue add-on. The completion of Eucalyptus in June 2, 2026 marks a pivotal step in transforming Hims from a primarily U.S.-centric telehealth provider into a truly global consumer health platform. This deal accelerates Hims’ international footprint, giving it immediate leadership or strengthened positions in key markets and positioning the company to serve customers across approximately 9 countries through a combination of direct operations, local brands, and growing presence. Combined with Hims’ existing U.S. dominance, this creates a robust multi-continent platform focused on personalized, affordable care in areas like sexual health, hair loss, mental health, weight management (including GLP-1 offerings where regulated), and more. United States, United Kingdom, Australia, Canada, Germany, France, Ireland, Spain, Japan. $HIMS revenue growth internationally will accelerate growth and avoid US market concentration risk. Long term management guided $6.5 billion revenue and $1.3 billion Adjusted EBITDA by 2030. IMO this guidance will be reached by 2028/2029. Not Fianancial Advice! DYOR! Clip from :
0:48

$HIMS Price Target in last 2 months & Eucalyptus✍️ Not Fianancial Advice! DYOR! Jefferies – lowered to $24.50 (from $25.50). Needham (Ryan MacDonald) – Buy, raised $30 → $35 BofA Securities (Allen Lutz) – Neutral, lowered $28 → $25 Leerink – Hold, $25 (maintain). Jun 3, 2026: Canaccord – Buy, $32 (maintain) JPMorgan (Cory Carpenter): Overweight, $35→ $33 Most of these analysts demand proof of re-accelerated growth, and refused to add Eucalyptus revenue in. Refused to build model/forecast on $HIMS scaling in 9 different countries. Q2 2026 will have 26-30% growth. Q3 and Q4 2026 will add Eucalyptue revenue in. But Eucalyptus entire year revenue belongs to $HIMS, but bears will say how much respect they have to reporting standard so they won't add it to Q1 Q2. That is fine, but as for investors u should be aware that Eucalyptus had an annualized revenue run-rate of ~$450M+ (as of early 2026) and now with with $HIMS growth will accelerate, where $HIMS raised guidance Full Year 2026: $2.8B – $3.0B did not include Eucalyptus. Eucalyptus is projected to have $600-$900M for FY2026(or $750m mid point) Q1 Q2 2026 adds around $120 and $150m estimated. $HIMS guidance for Q2 without Eucalyptus is $680-$700m Or consolidated $HIMS Q1 2026 $608.1m + $120m=$728.1m or 24.2% YoY Q2 2026 $680m(guide) + $150m=$800m or 52% YoY Q3 2026 $800m(est) +$200m= $1B or 67% YoY Q4 2026 $912m (est) + $280m= $1.192B or 93% YoY A. FY2027 when included all Eucalyptus revenue =$3.72B(conservative)-$4B(High end) or 58.2%-70.2% B. FY2027 when excluded Eucalyptus Q1 Q2 revenue =$3.48B(conseravtive)-$3.7B(High end) or 48%-57.4% Short sellers will say Eucalyptus is inorganic growth and they will only use B calculation above because they respect reporting standard. Or how they will wait until FY2027 so bears have time to exit at cheap share price. Eucalyptus is a strategic platform builder with synergy potential, not just a pure revenue add-on. The completion of Eucalyptus in June 2, 2026 marks a pivotal step in transforming Hims from a primarily U.S.-centric telehealth provider into a truly global consumer health platform. This deal accelerates Hims’ international footprint, giving it immediate leadership or strengthened positions in key markets and positioning the company to serve customers across approximately 9 countries through a combination of direct operations, local brands, and growing presence. Combined with Hims’ existing U.S. dominance, this creates a robust multi-continent platform focused on personalized, affordable care in areas like sexual health, hair loss, mental health, weight management (including GLP-1 offerings where regulated), and more. United States, United Kingdom, Australia, Canada, Germany, France, Ireland, Spain, Japan. $HIMS revenue growth internationally will accelerate growth and avoid US market concentration risk. Long term management guided $6.5 billion revenue and $1.3 billion Adjusted EBITDA by 2030. IMO this guidance will be reached by 2028/2029. Not Fianancial Advice! DYOR! Clip from :

Mike

64,664 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

My 10x stock idea from GTC isn't photonics?! But it does involve lasers. Say hello to $INFQ. It's a newly IPO'd quantum stock generating tens of millions in revenue in space + defense applications with very unique technology. Infleqtion went public last month but it's trading 40% below its IPO price with a sub $2B market cap. $INFQ trades at roughly 70x trailing sales on $29M in revenue. Compare that to $RGTI at $6B market cap on just $7M in revenue, that's 860x sales. I chatted with $INFQ's Chief Administrative Officer, Julie McGee, to dig in further but here's the TLDR. Most quantum companies need to cool their chips to near absolute zero temps just to operate. Infleqtion uses "neutral atom" technology that traps individual atoms inside a glass cell using lasers and runs them at room temperature. It takes the power of a few hairdryers. No giant refrigerators. Way cheaper and way easier to scale. And unlike most quantum names they're actually shipping products NOW. Quantum clocks for GPS-denied navigation, RF sensors, inertial navigation systems. Selling to NASA, the DoD, and the UK government. Their quantum clock is being qualified by SpaceX for satellite systems. Quantum brings a whole new level of precision that works on the ground, in the sky, and underwater. Their technology can enable submarines to navigate without ever linking up to a satellite. GPS jamming is also becoming a huge problem on the battlefield, showing up in Ukraine and Iran. Quantum timing is inherently unjammable and unspoofable. They also had a dedicated spot inside the Nvidia booth at GTC. $INFQ partnered with Nvidia to demo the first commercial materials science application running on logical qubits and are working with Nvidia's NVQLink to scale quantum-classical hybrid computing. What's next: 30 logical qubits targeted this year, one of the most important milestones in the race to fault tolerant quantum computing by 2028. Plus a new NASA contract to measure Earth's gravity from space. Infleqtion combines an attractive valuation with extremely unique technology (they're the only neutral atom quantum company publicly listed). Could easily see this re-rating fast, I just think the IPO timing was poor with Iran. Could be adding this as a lottery ticket to my Asymmetrical Bets portfolio soon... This post was not sponsored or influenced in any way by $INFQ. All thoughts are my own, NFA / DYOR.
10:41

My 10x stock idea from GTC isn't photonics?! But it does involve lasers. Say hello to $INFQ. It's a newly IPO'd quantum stock generating tens of millions in revenue in space + defense applications with very unique technology. Infleqtion went public last month but it's trading 40% below its IPO price with a sub $2B market cap. $INFQ trades at roughly 70x trailing sales on $29M in revenue. Compare that to $RGTI at $6B market cap on just $7M in revenue, that's 860x sales. I chatted with $INFQ's Chief Administrative Officer, Julie McGee, to dig in further but here's the TLDR. Most quantum companies need to cool their chips to near absolute zero temps just to operate. Infleqtion uses "neutral atom" technology that traps individual atoms inside a glass cell using lasers and runs them at room temperature. It takes the power of a few hairdryers. No giant refrigerators. Way cheaper and way easier to scale. And unlike most quantum names they're actually shipping products NOW. Quantum clocks for GPS-denied navigation, RF sensors, inertial navigation systems. Selling to NASA, the DoD, and the UK government. Their quantum clock is being qualified by SpaceX for satellite systems. Quantum brings a whole new level of precision that works on the ground, in the sky, and underwater. Their technology can enable submarines to navigate without ever linking up to a satellite. GPS jamming is also becoming a huge problem on the battlefield, showing up in Ukraine and Iran. Quantum timing is inherently unjammable and unspoofable. They also had a dedicated spot inside the Nvidia booth at GTC. $INFQ partnered with Nvidia to demo the first commercial materials science application running on logical qubits and are working with Nvidia's NVQLink to scale quantum-classical hybrid computing. What's next: 30 logical qubits targeted this year, one of the most important milestones in the race to fault tolerant quantum computing by 2028. Plus a new NASA contract to measure Earth's gravity from space. Infleqtion combines an attractive valuation with extremely unique technology (they're the only neutral atom quantum company publicly listed). Could easily see this re-rating fast, I just think the IPO timing was poor with Iran. Could be adding this as a lottery ticket to my Asymmetrical Bets portfolio soon... This post was not sponsored or influenced in any way by $INFQ. All thoughts are my own, NFA / DYOR.

Michael Sikand

321,848 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад

Nebius will be a trillion dollar company (Save this). The neocloud market, purpose-built AI cloud infrastructure, separate from legacy hyperscalers generated roughly $25 billion in revenue in 2025, up 223% year over year. Synergy Research projects it will approach $400 billion by 2031, compounding at 58% annually one of the fastest sustained growth rates ever recorded for an infrastructure category of this scale. The CEO's explanation for why they win is worth understanding in detail. GPU compute is scarce and that part everyone knows but Nebius is not simply renting GPUs by the hour and marking them up, which is what most neocloud imitators do. They have built their own physical capacity for inference, optimized the full technology stack from the software layer all the way down to the rack hardware and recently acquired a company called Agen specifically to push inference latency even lower and throughput even higher. The CEO frames the core problem directly that in 2026, every product you build is powered by tokens, AI intelligence and while you can get those tokens from OpenAI or Anthropic via a simple API call, the moment you want to run open source models, specialized vertical models, or anything other than the two dominant frontier labs, you run into a wall. You can download the weights from Hugging Face and assemble the pieces. But getting those workloads to run at scale, at the economics you need, with the reliability your product requires, is an extraordinarily complex engineering challenge that most companies cannot staff or afford to solve in-house. That is the problem Nebius is solving, and that is why their inference product called Token Factory exists. The financial results are among the most dramatic growth numbers reported by any public company this year. In Q1 2026, Nebius posted $399 million in revenue, a 684% increase from the same quarter a year earlier. In the span of twelve months, the company swung from a $104 million net loss to $621 million in net income. Cash from operations went from negative $184 million to positive $2.26 billion in the same period meaning this is not growth funded by burning investor capital, it is growth that is now generating its own fuel. For the full year 2026, Nebius is guiding for an annualized revenue run rate of $7 billion to $9 billion, with pipeline creation tracking to surpass $4 billion. The contracted backlog sits at $49 billion, anchored by a $27 billion agreement with Meta, a deal worth up to $19.4 billion with Microsoft, and a public endorsement from Jensen Huang at NVIDIA's GTC conference in 2026. The current market cap is approximately $56 billion. A company with $7 to $9 billion in annualized revenue, growing at 684%, turning cash-flow positive, sitting on $49 billion in contracted backlog, operating in a market compounding at 58% annually toward $400 billion, that company has a credible path to 20x from its current valuation if execution holds. That is the trillion dollar case, and it does not require any heroic assumptions and it requires Nebius to keep doing what it is already demonstrably doing. Milk Road Pro called this one early. Our analysts added Nebius to the portfolio when it was still flying under the radar, and we are sitting on a massive gain on that position right now. If you want to see what else we are building conviction on before the rest of the market catches up, come join us at Milk Road Pro using the link below!
1:04

Nebius will be a trillion dollar company (Save this). The neocloud market, purpose-built AI cloud infrastructure, separate from legacy hyperscalers generated roughly $25 billion in revenue in 2025, up 223% year over year. Synergy Research projects it will approach $400 billion by 2031, compounding at 58% annually one of the fastest sustained growth rates ever recorded for an infrastructure category of this scale. The CEO's explanation for why they win is worth understanding in detail. GPU compute is scarce and that part everyone knows but Nebius is not simply renting GPUs by the hour and marking them up, which is what most neocloud imitators do. They have built their own physical capacity for inference, optimized the full technology stack from the software layer all the way down to the rack hardware and recently acquired a company called Agen specifically to push inference latency even lower and throughput even higher. The CEO frames the core problem directly that in 2026, every product you build is powered by tokens, AI intelligence and while you can get those tokens from OpenAI or Anthropic via a simple API call, the moment you want to run open source models, specialized vertical models, or anything other than the two dominant frontier labs, you run into a wall. You can download the weights from Hugging Face and assemble the pieces. But getting those workloads to run at scale, at the economics you need, with the reliability your product requires, is an extraordinarily complex engineering challenge that most companies cannot staff or afford to solve in-house. That is the problem Nebius is solving, and that is why their inference product called Token Factory exists. The financial results are among the most dramatic growth numbers reported by any public company this year. In Q1 2026, Nebius posted $399 million in revenue, a 684% increase from the same quarter a year earlier. In the span of twelve months, the company swung from a $104 million net loss to $621 million in net income. Cash from operations went from negative $184 million to positive $2.26 billion in the same period meaning this is not growth funded by burning investor capital, it is growth that is now generating its own fuel. For the full year 2026, Nebius is guiding for an annualized revenue run rate of $7 billion to $9 billion, with pipeline creation tracking to surpass $4 billion. The contracted backlog sits at $49 billion, anchored by a $27 billion agreement with Meta, a deal worth up to $19.4 billion with Microsoft, and a public endorsement from Jensen Huang at NVIDIA's GTC conference in 2026. The current market cap is approximately $56 billion. A company with $7 to $9 billion in annualized revenue, growing at 684%, turning cash-flow positive, sitting on $49 billion in contracted backlog, operating in a market compounding at 58% annually toward $400 billion, that company has a credible path to 20x from its current valuation if execution holds. That is the trillion dollar case, and it does not require any heroic assumptions and it requires Nebius to keep doing what it is already demonstrably doing. Milk Road Pro called this one early. Our analysts added Nebius to the portfolio when it was still flying under the radar, and we are sitting on a massive gain on that position right now. If you want to see what else we are building conviction on before the rest of the market catches up, come join us at Milk Road Pro using the link below!

Milk Road AI

28,622 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

PROJECT MAVEN and the U.S. Military's Cutting-Edge Arsenal of AI-Driven Warfare and Directed Energy Weapons. This is an important deep dive into one of the U.S. Department of War's most transformative initiatives, a game-changer that's reshaping modern warfare through artificial intelligence. Launched in 2017 under the Algorithmic Warfare Cross-Functional Team, Project Maven isn't just another tech buzzword; it's the Pentagon's flagship AI program designed to supercharge military intelligence by automating the analysis of vast troves of data from drones, satellites, and surveillance feeds. Highlighting how Maven uses machine learning and computer vision to detect, classify, and track targets in real-time, compressing the "kill chain" from hours to minutes. The weapon and defense systems powering this revolution, including the seamless integration of Directed Energy Weapons (DEWs). Project Maven serves as the brain, processing petabytes of imagery to identify threats like enemy vehicles, personnel, or infrastructure with pinpoint accuracy—far beyond what human analysts could achieve alone. Initially deployed against ISIS in 2017, it fused data from full-motion video (FMV) and other sensors to flag potential strikes, always with human oversight in the loop to ensure ethical decision-making. Today, under the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA), Maven has expanded to all military branches—Army, Air Force, Space Force, Navy, and Marines—via platforms like the Maven Smart System (MSS). MSS isn't just about detection; it's a force multiplier, enabling rapid targeting in exercises like Scarlet Dragon, where it slashed manpower needs from thousands to mere dozens while handling complex scenarios in CENTCOM and beyond. Now, pair this AI prowess with the U.S. military's Directed Energy Weapons, and you get a lethal, futuristic synergy. DEWs harness concentrated electromagnetic energy—think high-energy lasers (HELs) and high-power microwaves (HPMs)—to neutralize threats without traditional munitions, offering infinite "ammo." These aren't hypothetical; they're operational and evolving rapidly. High-Energy Lasers (HELs), systems like the Navy's HELIOS (High-Energy Laser with Integrated Optical-Dazzler and Surveillance) aboard destroyers like the USS Preble deliver speed-of-light strikes to down drones, missiles, or small boats for pennies per shot. Integrated with Maven's AI targeting, HELIOS can acquire, track, and zap threats in swarms, as demonstrated in recent Pacific tests. The Army's DE M-SHORAD (Directed Energy Maneuver-Short Range Air Defense) prototype, mounted on Stryker vehicles, recently shredded drone swarms at Fort Sill, blending lasers with kinetic defenses for layered protection. High-Power Microwaves (HPMs), weapons like the Air Force's THOR (Tactical High-Power Operational Responder) unleash radiofrequency waves to fry electronics in drones or missiles from afar, covering wide areas with a single pulse. In urban or congested environments, HPMs provide non-lethal options, disrupting signals without collateral damage—perfect for Maven-identified targets in sensitive ops. Broader Defense Ecosystems, Maven feeds into systems like the Joint All-Domain Command and Control (JADC2), linking sensors across domains for seamless ops. DEWs complement this by offering scalable effects—from dazzling sensors (e.g., Vigilant Eagle for airport defense) to outright destruction. The Pentagon's Directed Energy Roadmap, with $1 billion annual investments, pushes for higher power outputs to tackle hypersonic threats, while initiatives like the High Energy Laser Scaling Initiative bolster industrial production. What makes this combo so revolutionary? Speed, precision, and cost-efficiency. Maven's AI spots the threat; DEWs eliminate it at light speed, with deep "magazines" that outlast ammo stockpiles. Project Maven is the spark igniting this fire, keeping the U.S. ahead in an era where data and energy are the ultimate weapons.
10:40

PROJECT MAVEN and the U.S. Military's Cutting-Edge Arsenal of AI-Driven Warfare and Directed Energy Weapons. This is an important deep dive into one of the U.S. Department of War's most transformative initiatives, a game-changer that's reshaping modern warfare through artificial intelligence. Launched in 2017 under the Algorithmic Warfare Cross-Functional Team, Project Maven isn't just another tech buzzword; it's the Pentagon's flagship AI program designed to supercharge military intelligence by automating the analysis of vast troves of data from drones, satellites, and surveillance feeds. Highlighting how Maven uses machine learning and computer vision to detect, classify, and track targets in real-time, compressing the "kill chain" from hours to minutes. The weapon and defense systems powering this revolution, including the seamless integration of Directed Energy Weapons (DEWs). Project Maven serves as the brain, processing petabytes of imagery to identify threats like enemy vehicles, personnel, or infrastructure with pinpoint accuracy—far beyond what human analysts could achieve alone. Initially deployed against ISIS in 2017, it fused data from full-motion video (FMV) and other sensors to flag potential strikes, always with human oversight in the loop to ensure ethical decision-making. Today, under the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA), Maven has expanded to all military branches—Army, Air Force, Space Force, Navy, and Marines—via platforms like the Maven Smart System (MSS). MSS isn't just about detection; it's a force multiplier, enabling rapid targeting in exercises like Scarlet Dragon, where it slashed manpower needs from thousands to mere dozens while handling complex scenarios in CENTCOM and beyond. Now, pair this AI prowess with the U.S. military's Directed Energy Weapons, and you get a lethal, futuristic synergy. DEWs harness concentrated electromagnetic energy—think high-energy lasers (HELs) and high-power microwaves (HPMs)—to neutralize threats without traditional munitions, offering infinite "ammo." These aren't hypothetical; they're operational and evolving rapidly. High-Energy Lasers (HELs), systems like the Navy's HELIOS (High-Energy Laser with Integrated Optical-Dazzler and Surveillance) aboard destroyers like the USS Preble deliver speed-of-light strikes to down drones, missiles, or small boats for pennies per shot. Integrated with Maven's AI targeting, HELIOS can acquire, track, and zap threats in swarms, as demonstrated in recent Pacific tests. The Army's DE M-SHORAD (Directed Energy Maneuver-Short Range Air Defense) prototype, mounted on Stryker vehicles, recently shredded drone swarms at Fort Sill, blending lasers with kinetic defenses for layered protection. High-Power Microwaves (HPMs), weapons like the Air Force's THOR (Tactical High-Power Operational Responder) unleash radiofrequency waves to fry electronics in drones or missiles from afar, covering wide areas with a single pulse. In urban or congested environments, HPMs provide non-lethal options, disrupting signals without collateral damage—perfect for Maven-identified targets in sensitive ops. Broader Defense Ecosystems, Maven feeds into systems like the Joint All-Domain Command and Control (JADC2), linking sensors across domains for seamless ops. DEWs complement this by offering scalable effects—from dazzling sensors (e.g., Vigilant Eagle for airport defense) to outright destruction. The Pentagon's Directed Energy Roadmap, with $1 billion annual investments, pushes for higher power outputs to tackle hypersonic threats, while initiatives like the High Energy Laser Scaling Initiative bolster industrial production. What makes this combo so revolutionary? Speed, precision, and cost-efficiency. Maven's AI spots the threat; DEWs eliminate it at light speed, with deep "magazines" that outlast ammo stockpiles. Project Maven is the spark igniting this fire, keeping the U.S. ahead in an era where data and energy are the ultimate weapons.

The SCIF

21,324 просмотров • 8 месяцев назад

I honestly believe SpaceX is going to be the BIGGEST IPO the stock market has ever seen and I don’t think the market and many people fully understands what’s coming yet. People keep throwing around numbers like $1-1.5 trillion, which already sounds massive (Tesla’s market cap today is $1.5T). But from what I’ve researched over the years and being invested heavily in the company for many years, this number feels like the floor. As of December 2025, SpaceX was valued at ~$800 billion in an insider private share sale. The company does this every now and then to allow internal employees that have been with the company for a long time to have some liquidity since the company is private fyi. IPO plans are expected in 2026, w/ early chatter targeting $1-1.5 trillion, potentially raising $30B+, which would already make it the largest IPO in history, beating Saudi Aramco! But there is so much more that is happening underneath. Check out Starlink for example. • Revenue was about ~$15B in 2025 • Expected to grow to $22-24B in 2026 • 9M subscribers today, and I think it will double in 2026 • By 2030, Starlink could realistically be doing $50B+ per year This technology will be powering global connectivity, aviation, ships, rural areas, governments, militaries, schools, hospitals, AI backhaul, disaster zones… places fiber will never reach. Put a conservative 10-20 multiple on that, Starlink ON ITS OWN could justify a $500B-$1T valuation. Then, you add the fact that SpaceX is the ONLY company today that owns the road to space bc of cost effective reusable rockets… it changed everything. Today, SpaceX can launch payloads for ~$100 per kg to orbit, while everyone else is still at $5,000+ per kg! There is literally no competition… To dumb it down, it’s like SpaceX owning the railroads in the 1800s, with Amazon’s logistics network, and Apple’s ecosystem, and more. It’s absolutely clear… if you want to go to Space or do anything there, you have to go through SpaceX. This gives them full control over: • Satellites • Space stations • Data centers • Lunar missions • Mars missions • And whatever the future of Space is This kind of advantage deserves a MASSIVE valuation premium. Then, there are markets SpaceX hasn’t even unlocked yet and this is where valuations start to break people’s brains and spreadsheets. 1/ Point-to-point Earth travel like New York to Shanghai in under an hour. Even grabbing just 10% of long haul travel is a $ hundreds-of-billions market. 2/ Space based data centers with essentially unlimited solar power, natural cooling, no land constraints, no regulations… remember AI needs a lot of energy and Space has plenty of it. 3/ Getting to Mars and building brand new economies. Whoever controls transport controls the economy that follows. Just imagine building another Earth economy on MANY planets. This is why $1.5T feels way too low to me. At $22-24B in revenue, a tech growth multiple already gets you $1-2T. And then add the fact that SpaceX is compounding infrastructure across multiple $ trillion dollar markets… if revenue scales toward $100B+ in the next decade, which is VERY realistic btw, you’re no longer talking about a $1.5T company. You’re talking $3T, $5T, $10T+, even $100T+ over time. I see SpaceX as the gateway to the next economy for humanity. Earth is a ~$500T asset when you add up everything and SpaceX is about to expand and multiply that pie. So when people say “Bro… $1.5T IPO?! You’re crazy…” I just nod, smile, and think to myself that this is where the story is just beginning.
0:57

I honestly believe SpaceX is going to be the BIGGEST IPO the stock market has ever seen and I don’t think the market and many people fully understands what’s coming yet. People keep throwing around numbers like $1-1.5 trillion, which already sounds massive (Tesla’s market cap today is $1.5T). But from what I’ve researched over the years and being invested heavily in the company for many years, this number feels like the floor. As of December 2025, SpaceX was valued at ~$800 billion in an insider private share sale. The company does this every now and then to allow internal employees that have been with the company for a long time to have some liquidity since the company is private fyi. IPO plans are expected in 2026, w/ early chatter targeting $1-1.5 trillion, potentially raising $30B+, which would already make it the largest IPO in history, beating Saudi Aramco! But there is so much more that is happening underneath. Check out Starlink for example. • Revenue was about ~$15B in 2025 • Expected to grow to $22-24B in 2026 • 9M subscribers today, and I think it will double in 2026 • By 2030, Starlink could realistically be doing $50B+ per year This technology will be powering global connectivity, aviation, ships, rural areas, governments, militaries, schools, hospitals, AI backhaul, disaster zones… places fiber will never reach. Put a conservative 10-20 multiple on that, Starlink ON ITS OWN could justify a $500B-$1T valuation. Then, you add the fact that SpaceX is the ONLY company today that owns the road to space bc of cost effective reusable rockets… it changed everything. Today, SpaceX can launch payloads for ~$100 per kg to orbit, while everyone else is still at $5,000+ per kg! There is literally no competition… To dumb it down, it’s like SpaceX owning the railroads in the 1800s, with Amazon’s logistics network, and Apple’s ecosystem, and more. It’s absolutely clear… if you want to go to Space or do anything there, you have to go through SpaceX. This gives them full control over: • Satellites • Space stations • Data centers • Lunar missions • Mars missions • And whatever the future of Space is This kind of advantage deserves a MASSIVE valuation premium. Then, there are markets SpaceX hasn’t even unlocked yet and this is where valuations start to break people’s brains and spreadsheets. 1/ Point-to-point Earth travel like New York to Shanghai in under an hour. Even grabbing just 10% of long haul travel is a $ hundreds-of-billions market. 2/ Space based data centers with essentially unlimited solar power, natural cooling, no land constraints, no regulations… remember AI needs a lot of energy and Space has plenty of it. 3/ Getting to Mars and building brand new economies. Whoever controls transport controls the economy that follows. Just imagine building another Earth economy on MANY planets. This is why $1.5T feels way too low to me. At $22-24B in revenue, a tech growth multiple already gets you $1-2T. And then add the fact that SpaceX is compounding infrastructure across multiple $ trillion dollar markets… if revenue scales toward $100B+ in the next decade, which is VERY realistic btw, you’re no longer talking about a $1.5T company. You’re talking $3T, $5T, $10T+, even $100T+ over time. I see SpaceX as the gateway to the next economy for humanity. Earth is a ~$500T asset when you add up everything and SpaceX is about to expand and multiply that pie. So when people say “Bro… $1.5T IPO?! You’re crazy…” I just nod, smile, and think to myself that this is where the story is just beginning.

Teslaconomics

116,395 просмотров • 8 месяцев назад

Elon Musk just confirmed the most INSANE IPO in history. SpaceX is going public in 2026. $1.5 TRILLION valuation. Raising $30+ billion. That's the biggest IPO ever made. Beating Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record from 2019. But here's what everyone's missing: This isn't about space tourism or Mars missions. Elon is literally about to win the entire AI race. And 99% of people have no idea how... Here's the problem killing every AI company right now: POWER. Oracle just reported earnings. They burned through $12 BILLION in one quarter building data centers. Their free cash flow? NEGATIVE $10 billion. Revenue missed estimates. Stock crashed 11%. Microsoft, Amazon, Google all scrambling to find enough electricity for AI training. The brutal math: The US generates 490 gigawatts of total power. AI is projected to need 123 gigawatts by 2035. That's a QUARTER of the entire electrical grid. Just for artificial intelligence. Goldman Sachs says AI energy demand could jump 165% by 2030. There is literally not enough power on Earth to run AI at the scale these companies are promising. Every data center needs massive cooling systems. Billions of gallons of water per year. Insane energy costs. And the infrastructure can't keep up. Elon's solution? Stop building on Earth entirely. SpaceX is building data centers in SPACE. Not a concept. Not 10 years out. Literally starting in 2026. They're upgrading Starlink V3 satellites to carry AI computing chips. Each satellite gets 24/7 solar power. No clouds. No night. No weather disruptions. No grid bottlenecks. And the insane part is that Starship can deliver 300 to 500 gigawatts of solar-powered AI satellites into orbit every single year. At 300 gigawatts per year, the AI computing power in space would exceed the entire U.S. economy's total electricity consumption within two years. Just from satellites. Processing in orbit. While Oracle is begging banks for loans to finish data centers and OpenAI is stuck in circular funding arrangements with Microsoft, Elon already owns everything: The rockets. The satellites. The launch infrastructure. The AI company (xAI). He doesn't need to ask utilities for permission. Doesn't need grid approvals from local governments. Doesn't need to build nuclear plants or wait for clean energy. He just launches. And everyone else is scrambling to catch up: Jeff Bezos sees it. Blue Origin announced they're building their own orbital data centers. Google just launched "Project Suncatcher" with plans to deploy AI satellites by 2027. Eric Schmidt, the former CEO of Google, literally BOUGHT an entire rocket company (Relativity Space) just to compete in this space. But they're all 3+ years behind Elon. SpaceX already has 6,000+ Starlink satellites in orbit. The infrastructure is built. The $30 billion from the IPO? Going straight into scaling orbital compute. SpaceX revenue is jumping from $15 billion in 2025 to $24 billion in 2026. Most of that from Starlink. Now add space-based AI infrastructure on top. Here's why this matters: Whoever controls orbital computing controls the AI revolution. And there's only ONE company on Earth with fully reusable rockets that can launch at the scale required. Jensen Huang, Nvidia's CEO, called space data centers "a dream." Translation: Nvidia is screwed if Elon actually pulls this off. Because if SpaceX succeeds, every AI company on the planet becomes Elon's customer. OpenAI needs compute? Running on SpaceX satellites. Google needs more capacity? Renting orbital infrastructure. Microsoft needs power? Paying SpaceX for launch and compute access. Elon won't just be in the AI race. He'll own the entire track everyone else is running on. The $1.5 trillion valuation sounds crazy until you realize what he's actually building. It's not a rocket company. It's the infrastructure layer for the next 50 years of computing. People calling it overvalued have no idea what's coming.
2:27

Elon Musk just confirmed the most INSANE IPO in history. SpaceX is going public in 2026. $1.5 TRILLION valuation. Raising $30+ billion. That's the biggest IPO ever made. Beating Saudi Aramco's $29 billion record from 2019. But here's what everyone's missing: This isn't about space tourism or Mars missions. Elon is literally about to win the entire AI race. And 99% of people have no idea how... Here's the problem killing every AI company right now: POWER. Oracle just reported earnings. They burned through $12 BILLION in one quarter building data centers. Their free cash flow? NEGATIVE $10 billion. Revenue missed estimates. Stock crashed 11%. Microsoft, Amazon, Google all scrambling to find enough electricity for AI training. The brutal math: The US generates 490 gigawatts of total power. AI is projected to need 123 gigawatts by 2035. That's a QUARTER of the entire electrical grid. Just for artificial intelligence. Goldman Sachs says AI energy demand could jump 165% by 2030. There is literally not enough power on Earth to run AI at the scale these companies are promising. Every data center needs massive cooling systems. Billions of gallons of water per year. Insane energy costs. And the infrastructure can't keep up. Elon's solution? Stop building on Earth entirely. SpaceX is building data centers in SPACE. Not a concept. Not 10 years out. Literally starting in 2026. They're upgrading Starlink V3 satellites to carry AI computing chips. Each satellite gets 24/7 solar power. No clouds. No night. No weather disruptions. No grid bottlenecks. And the insane part is that Starship can deliver 300 to 500 gigawatts of solar-powered AI satellites into orbit every single year. At 300 gigawatts per year, the AI computing power in space would exceed the entire U.S. economy's total electricity consumption within two years. Just from satellites. Processing in orbit. While Oracle is begging banks for loans to finish data centers and OpenAI is stuck in circular funding arrangements with Microsoft, Elon already owns everything: The rockets. The satellites. The launch infrastructure. The AI company (xAI). He doesn't need to ask utilities for permission. Doesn't need grid approvals from local governments. Doesn't need to build nuclear plants or wait for clean energy. He just launches. And everyone else is scrambling to catch up: Jeff Bezos sees it. Blue Origin announced they're building their own orbital data centers. Google just launched "Project Suncatcher" with plans to deploy AI satellites by 2027. Eric Schmidt, the former CEO of Google, literally BOUGHT an entire rocket company (Relativity Space) just to compete in this space. But they're all 3+ years behind Elon. SpaceX already has 6,000+ Starlink satellites in orbit. The infrastructure is built. The $30 billion from the IPO? Going straight into scaling orbital compute. SpaceX revenue is jumping from $15 billion in 2025 to $24 billion in 2026. Most of that from Starlink. Now add space-based AI infrastructure on top. Here's why this matters: Whoever controls orbital computing controls the AI revolution. And there's only ONE company on Earth with fully reusable rockets that can launch at the scale required. Jensen Huang, Nvidia's CEO, called space data centers "a dream." Translation: Nvidia is screwed if Elon actually pulls this off. Because if SpaceX succeeds, every AI company on the planet becomes Elon's customer. OpenAI needs compute? Running on SpaceX satellites. Google needs more capacity? Renting orbital infrastructure. Microsoft needs power? Paying SpaceX for launch and compute access. Elon won't just be in the AI race. He'll own the entire track everyone else is running on. The $1.5 trillion valuation sounds crazy until you realize what he's actually building. It's not a rocket company. It's the infrastructure layer for the next 50 years of computing. People calling it overvalued have no idea what's coming.

Ricardo

2,909,667 просмотров • 9 месяцев назад

BREAKING $GRAB Q2 2026 Earning Call Full✅🚀 This is a Triple Beat Quarter, while short sellers expected misses and negative EPS. Short sellers love lying about Mike and lose $5-$10B long term. Current Short Interest: 315,168,660 shares Q2 2026 Earning Call: Revenue: $997M vs $989.5M est ✅ EPS: $0.06 vs $0.01 est ✅ Raised Guidance to $4.1-$4.15B ✅ $750M additional Buyback✅ MTUs hit ATH 54M 17% YoY✅ GrabUnlimited mem grew 20% YoY ✅ Loanbook accelerated to $2.3B or 197% YoY✅ GrabFin is on track to be profitable in H2✅ Gross & net cash liquidity were $7.4B & $5.4B✅ ~Affordability is unlocking new users and enforcing daily habit. ~Groceries or GrabMart grew 1.7 times the rate of Food Deliveries ~GrabFin is approaching Profitability in H2 ~Gross Loan Portfolio nearly tripled YoY to $2.3 billion ~The ecosystem lowers our cost to serve in Financial Services, and Financial Services strengthens the ecosystem in return ~The consolidation of Superbank and our acquisition of Stash are two of the most exciting additions we have made to this segment ~AI interaction with Merchants and Customers x10 ~Our engineers now pair with autonomous coding agents as standard practice, cutting time to market of new products by up to 30% YoY, while Jarvis, our internal AI data analytics assistant, cumulatively saves our sales teams approximately 40,000 hours every quarter. ~ H2 is expanding operating leverage with a strong momentum ~Superbank and Stash add higher growth and we have some Currencies volatility ~Deliveries GMV growth accelerated from the prior two quarters on a constant currency basis to 24% YoY, as we drove both Food and Mart MTUs to hit an all-time high in June. Q&A: ~We are on track for GrabFin to hit profitability in H2 2026 ~We are managing risk prudently on loan book as we scale it ~SuperBank been growing rapidly with over 7M customers. 60% of SuperBank uses Grab SuperApp. ~ Stash reaches $5.5B AUM with strong subscribers growth, help us drive GrabFin profitability ~ Uber relating to acquiring Delivery Hero. We have a strong flywheel on our SuperApp, we are not afraid of competition. ~ GrabMart has lots of upside or growth. Deepening partnerships with different groceries to drive growth ~ AI-auto grab groceries ~ Indonesia Commission Cap on 2 wheels and only 6% of GMV ~ Fuel Price is volatile, we will continue to support our drivers. We have even more drivers coming in the SuperApp. We already factored the support in the guidance. If Fuel goes down, that will help us. ~ Longer term, more EVs coming in at rapid pace. EVs reduce TCO for drivers. This quarter we have 9 new EV partnerships and expand charging relationships. ~ Mobility we care about number of rides and drivers as we face fuel volatility. We want to have strong supply of drivers to service strong demand. We are making sure Drivers earning up, make a good living. Margin was 8.6%, and we want to keep it healthy, we want this setup going into Q3 as we don't know where oil price gonna go. ~We executed $400M buyback from $500m announced at current share price. With new $750M additional Buyback take our cumulative buyback to $1.75B since 2024. We want to return capital back to shareholders as we generate more FCF from our businesses to drive shareholders' value long term ~ We are leading AV in Singapore, it will be a while for other SEA countries as most are 2 wheels ~ We want high density, trust, and scale. ~ Foodpanda Taiwan, We remain on track to enter Taiwan market. We working closely with Taiwanese regulators and expect to close by end of year. 1. FY2026 Group Revenue guidance of $4.10 billion - $4.15 billion (22% - 23% YoY growth); and 2. FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $720 million - $740 million (44% - 48% YoY growth).
32:11

BREAKING $GRAB Q2 2026 Earning Call Full✅🚀 This is a Triple Beat Quarter, while short sellers expected misses and negative EPS. Short sellers love lying about Mike and lose $5-$10B long term. Current Short Interest: 315,168,660 shares Q2 2026 Earning Call: Revenue: $997M vs $989.5M est ✅ EPS: $0.06 vs $0.01 est ✅ Raised Guidance to $4.1-$4.15B ✅ $750M additional Buyback✅ MTUs hit ATH 54M 17% YoY✅ GrabUnlimited mem grew 20% YoY ✅ Loanbook accelerated to $2.3B or 197% YoY✅ GrabFin is on track to be profitable in H2✅ Gross & net cash liquidity were $7.4B & $5.4B✅ ~Affordability is unlocking new users and enforcing daily habit. ~Groceries or GrabMart grew 1.7 times the rate of Food Deliveries ~GrabFin is approaching Profitability in H2 ~Gross Loan Portfolio nearly tripled YoY to $2.3 billion ~The ecosystem lowers our cost to serve in Financial Services, and Financial Services strengthens the ecosystem in return ~The consolidation of Superbank and our acquisition of Stash are two of the most exciting additions we have made to this segment ~AI interaction with Merchants and Customers x10 ~Our engineers now pair with autonomous coding agents as standard practice, cutting time to market of new products by up to 30% YoY, while Jarvis, our internal AI data analytics assistant, cumulatively saves our sales teams approximately 40,000 hours every quarter. ~ H2 is expanding operating leverage with a strong momentum ~Superbank and Stash add higher growth and we have some Currencies volatility ~Deliveries GMV growth accelerated from the prior two quarters on a constant currency basis to 24% YoY, as we drove both Food and Mart MTUs to hit an all-time high in June. Q&A: ~We are on track for GrabFin to hit profitability in H2 2026 ~We are managing risk prudently on loan book as we scale it ~SuperBank been growing rapidly with over 7M customers. 60% of SuperBank uses Grab SuperApp. ~ Stash reaches $5.5B AUM with strong subscribers growth, help us drive GrabFin profitability ~ Uber relating to acquiring Delivery Hero. We have a strong flywheel on our SuperApp, we are not afraid of competition. ~ GrabMart has lots of upside or growth. Deepening partnerships with different groceries to drive growth ~ AI-auto grab groceries ~ Indonesia Commission Cap on 2 wheels and only 6% of GMV ~ Fuel Price is volatile, we will continue to support our drivers. We have even more drivers coming in the SuperApp. We already factored the support in the guidance. If Fuel goes down, that will help us. ~ Longer term, more EVs coming in at rapid pace. EVs reduce TCO for drivers. This quarter we have 9 new EV partnerships and expand charging relationships. ~ Mobility we care about number of rides and drivers as we face fuel volatility. We want to have strong supply of drivers to service strong demand. We are making sure Drivers earning up, make a good living. Margin was 8.6%, and we want to keep it healthy, we want this setup going into Q3 as we don't know where oil price gonna go. ~We executed $400M buyback from $500m announced at current share price. With new $750M additional Buyback take our cumulative buyback to $1.75B since 2024. We want to return capital back to shareholders as we generate more FCF from our businesses to drive shareholders' value long term ~ We are leading AV in Singapore, it will be a while for other SEA countries as most are 2 wheels ~ We want high density, trust, and scale. ~ Foodpanda Taiwan, We remain on track to enter Taiwan market. We working closely with Taiwanese regulators and expect to close by end of year. 1. FY2026 Group Revenue guidance of $4.10 billion - $4.15 billion (22% - 23% YoY growth); and 2. FY2026 Adjusted EBITDA guidance of $720 million - $740 million (44% - 48% YoY growth).

Mike

115,349 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

I’m seeing a lot of questions on the launch of China’s Chang’e 6 mission yesterday to get samples - for the first time - from the far side of the moon. We don’t know (afaik) why specifically they’re doing that, but we have a pretty good idea what grand vision China is working towards with their space program. How? From this 2022 video by Chas Freeman (former Assistant Secretary of Defense and Nixon's interpreter during his era-defining 1972 China visit), who imho is undoubtedly one of the most knowledgeable former US officials on China. He says that according to his own discussions with people running China’s space program, they’re following the vision described in the book "The high frontier" by Gerard K. O'Neill, which Freeman says has "become the bible of the Chinese space program". I read the book. So what vision does it describe? The book was written in 1976 by O'Neill who was a professor of physics at Princeton University. He also founded the Space Studies Institute, an organization devoted to funding research into space manufacturing and colonization. In other words, he knew his stuff. The book makes the very fair point that we have massive resource constraints on earth, especially given the growing population. He estimated in 1976 that we should be "about six and a half billion people in the year 2000", and we were 6.114 billion back then so he was pretty prescient. He estimates that these constraints will progressively give rise to more and more social tensions as the growing earth population competes for our limited resources as well as faces global problems like climate change. In his view, dealing with this will either require "an authoritarian regime capable of mounting the immense task of social reorganization needed to escape catastrophe" or, alternatively, “mankind would [need to adopt] a static society [that would be] forced in self-defense to suppress new ideas". The 3rd alternative is of course the colonization of space. The most interesting aspect of the book is that he claims everything he writes is feasible with knowledge and technology that already existed in the late 70s. In short he calls for the establishment of large human habitats in the Earth-Moon system, located at stable Lagrange points ("parking spots" in space where gravity from different spatial bodies cancel each other out). In particular he developed the concept of what's known today as the "O'Neill cylinder" which he says "could support quite easily a population of ten million people, growing its food in agricultural cylinders near but outside the main habitat". Energy-wise, it'd simply make use of solar energy via a system of mirrors. As he describes it: "the concentration of the unvarying, intense sunlight of space by very lightweight, inexpensive mirrors can provide all the energy that industry will ever need [...] at a fraction of a cent per kilowatt-hour". He envisages building these habitats with material from the moon, shot into space via "mass drivers", a form of electromagnetic catapult. Also "the habitats would have artificial gravity similar as that of earth by rotating about twenty-eight times an hour”, but he also envisages low-gravity areas, especially for recreational activities such as swimming pools or dancing representations. To trade with earth, he develops the idea of beaming solar power back to earth via "microwave from solar power stations in orbit". As he describes it "the microwave beam would arrive at Earth with a beam width of about seven kilometers. Its intensity would be modest, less than half that of sunlight. In contrast to sunlight, though, it would be there all the time, even at night or in clouds or rain, and it would be in a form ready for conversion to DC current with a loss of only 10 percent. The areas receiving these beams’ output on Earth would be fenced, and outside the fence the intensity of microwave radiation would be no higher than outside a microwave oven with the door closed. He estimates that if "Satellite Solar Power Stations (SSPS) were to become the sole source of electric energy in the United States in the year 2000, the land area necessary for the SSPS antennas would still be only 0.2 percent of that of the continental United States". In short, the establishment of space colonies could lead to the fulfillment of a good share of Earth's energy needs. Last but not least he describes life in space habitats as better than that of earth, largely thanks to the level of control we'd have over the environment (total climate control which would enable an abundance of food and no natural disaster) as well as unlimited cheap energy. To conclude, Chas Freeman typically really knows his stuff when it comes to China and he’s very intellectually honest (a rare trait among US officials) so I have no doubt he tells the truth when he says the Chinese told him that was the vision. And China famously thinks very big and very long term so it would be quite like them to go for something like this. There are also quite a few tangible signs that China is working towards that vision. See for instance this November 2022 news where “China’s space station will join a project to collect solar power from space and send it to Earth in a high-energy microwave beam”: That’s exactly O’Neill’s vision! Or check this October 2022 news that says China is developing new "electromagnetic sledges" that can propel a carriage weighing a few tonnes to a record speed, with a key application for this being “aerospace”: Remember: O’Neill’s vision is to build his habitats with material from the moon, shot into space via "mass drivers", a form of electromagnetic catapult. So there you go… Or also the fact that the Chinese will build, together with the Russians, a moon base - planned for 2028 - powered by a “space nuclear reactor” that’s already been developed (on Earth) and has passed review by China’s Ministry of Science: The space nuclear reactor can generate 1MW of electricity, enough to power 10 International Space Stations. Enough power, maybe, to undertake mining activity and power an electromagnetic catapult… After visions change, the world changes, so it’s also possible that China’s view on what they want to do has evolved. In any case, Chas Freeman is right that China’s motivation for all its initiatives in space can’t just be to “boldly explore where no-one has been before”, they have to be working towards something. And Freeman is also absolutely right to lament that the U.S. decided to ban any cooperation in space with the Chinese. Those endeavors are something that could have been jointly developed as a multilateral effort to unite us all as a species… Instead China is now forced to go at it alone with Russia and we face a future where our petty divisions on Earth will be carried with us to space…
3:58

I’m seeing a lot of questions on the launch of China’s Chang’e 6 mission yesterday to get samples - for the first time - from the far side of the moon. We don’t know (afaik) why specifically they’re doing that, but we have a pretty good idea what grand vision China is working towards with their space program. How? From this 2022 video by Chas Freeman (former Assistant Secretary of Defense and Nixon's interpreter during his era-defining 1972 China visit), who imho is undoubtedly one of the most knowledgeable former US officials on China. He says that according to his own discussions with people running China’s space program, they’re following the vision described in the book "The high frontier" by Gerard K. O'Neill, which Freeman says has "become the bible of the Chinese space program". I read the book. So what vision does it describe? The book was written in 1976 by O'Neill who was a professor of physics at Princeton University. He also founded the Space Studies Institute, an organization devoted to funding research into space manufacturing and colonization. In other words, he knew his stuff. The book makes the very fair point that we have massive resource constraints on earth, especially given the growing population. He estimated in 1976 that we should be "about six and a half billion people in the year 2000", and we were 6.114 billion back then so he was pretty prescient. He estimates that these constraints will progressively give rise to more and more social tensions as the growing earth population competes for our limited resources as well as faces global problems like climate change. In his view, dealing with this will either require "an authoritarian regime capable of mounting the immense task of social reorganization needed to escape catastrophe" or, alternatively, “mankind would [need to adopt] a static society [that would be] forced in self-defense to suppress new ideas". The 3rd alternative is of course the colonization of space. The most interesting aspect of the book is that he claims everything he writes is feasible with knowledge and technology that already existed in the late 70s. In short he calls for the establishment of large human habitats in the Earth-Moon system, located at stable Lagrange points ("parking spots" in space where gravity from different spatial bodies cancel each other out). In particular he developed the concept of what's known today as the "O'Neill cylinder" which he says "could support quite easily a population of ten million people, growing its food in agricultural cylinders near but outside the main habitat". Energy-wise, it'd simply make use of solar energy via a system of mirrors. As he describes it: "the concentration of the unvarying, intense sunlight of space by very lightweight, inexpensive mirrors can provide all the energy that industry will ever need [...] at a fraction of a cent per kilowatt-hour". He envisages building these habitats with material from the moon, shot into space via "mass drivers", a form of electromagnetic catapult. Also "the habitats would have artificial gravity similar as that of earth by rotating about twenty-eight times an hour”, but he also envisages low-gravity areas, especially for recreational activities such as swimming pools or dancing representations. To trade with earth, he develops the idea of beaming solar power back to earth via "microwave from solar power stations in orbit". As he describes it "the microwave beam would arrive at Earth with a beam width of about seven kilometers. Its intensity would be modest, less than half that of sunlight. In contrast to sunlight, though, it would be there all the time, even at night or in clouds or rain, and it would be in a form ready for conversion to DC current with a loss of only 10 percent. The areas receiving these beams’ output on Earth would be fenced, and outside the fence the intensity of microwave radiation would be no higher than outside a microwave oven with the door closed. He estimates that if "Satellite Solar Power Stations (SSPS) were to become the sole source of electric energy in the United States in the year 2000, the land area necessary for the SSPS antennas would still be only 0.2 percent of that of the continental United States". In short, the establishment of space colonies could lead to the fulfillment of a good share of Earth's energy needs. Last but not least he describes life in space habitats as better than that of earth, largely thanks to the level of control we'd have over the environment (total climate control which would enable an abundance of food and no natural disaster) as well as unlimited cheap energy. To conclude, Chas Freeman typically really knows his stuff when it comes to China and he’s very intellectually honest (a rare trait among US officials) so I have no doubt he tells the truth when he says the Chinese told him that was the vision. And China famously thinks very big and very long term so it would be quite like them to go for something like this. There are also quite a few tangible signs that China is working towards that vision. See for instance this November 2022 news where “China’s space station will join a project to collect solar power from space and send it to Earth in a high-energy microwave beam”: That’s exactly O’Neill’s vision! Or check this October 2022 news that says China is developing new "electromagnetic sledges" that can propel a carriage weighing a few tonnes to a record speed, with a key application for this being “aerospace”: Remember: O’Neill’s vision is to build his habitats with material from the moon, shot into space via "mass drivers", a form of electromagnetic catapult. So there you go… Or also the fact that the Chinese will build, together with the Russians, a moon base - planned for 2028 - powered by a “space nuclear reactor” that’s already been developed (on Earth) and has passed review by China’s Ministry of Science: The space nuclear reactor can generate 1MW of electricity, enough to power 10 International Space Stations. Enough power, maybe, to undertake mining activity and power an electromagnetic catapult… After visions change, the world changes, so it’s also possible that China’s view on what they want to do has evolved. In any case, Chas Freeman is right that China’s motivation for all its initiatives in space can’t just be to “boldly explore where no-one has been before”, they have to be working towards something. And Freeman is also absolutely right to lament that the U.S. decided to ban any cooperation in space with the Chinese. Those endeavors are something that could have been jointly developed as a multilateral effort to unite us all as a species… Instead China is now forced to go at it alone with Russia and we face a future where our petty divisions on Earth will be carried with us to space…

Arnaud Bertrand

265,181 просмотров • 2 лет назад

$GRAB Secret Sauce 🧵 How this company will thrive to $300B MC and beyond! It took me a while to gather the material for this thread. I will link down below other threads I talked extensively on all current and future $GRAB services to avoid making this thread too long. It is very important to understand product roadmap on the SuperApp, and how it will make money over the long-term, and transfer that value creation to shareholders. The closest analogy for new investors to understand is Amazon obsession over customers where $AMZN makes a little bit of money on each transaction to break even, but make the most money on Prime Membership. Or Costco obsession over customers where $COST makes 10-15% margin or lower on most products to break even on operation, but to make the most money on Costco membership fees. Jeff Bezos famously said "investors should invest in the company that obsesses customer experiencein the long term, there's never any misalignment between customer interests and shareholder interests!" The TLDR version: Being Customer Obsessed over Competition. We never heard much where Anthony Tan described or bitter about competition. Because Anthony does pay attention to competition, but he is more focused or obsessed on how to serve customers better at the lowest price possible, those that pay for $GRAB services. It is not just a business, it is a mission from first day of $GRAB or formerly known as MyTeksi. Anthony Tan and Co-founder Hooi Ling Tan both met at a class “Business at the Base of the Pyramid.” This class shaped the years of $GRAB success and today mission, creating a valuable business servicing the mass market, the lower income communities. Now, lets start with Customer Obession. $Grab does not see just users as customers, Anthony Tan views drivers, merchants, and partners are customers as well for long term success of the company. This is a big differentiator that contributed to GRAB success today. A. Hyperfocus on users: Grab emphasizes safety, with 99.9% of rides completed without incidents, and offers affordable options like Saver rides (26% of mobility transactions, 1.5X higher order frequency) alongside high-value services like Premium Rides and GrabUnlimited (3.7X more frequent usage, 2X higher retention). This likely enhances user satisfaction and retention, driving revenue growth, as seen in their Q1 2025 earnings of $773 million, up 18% year-over-year. But it does not stop at rides, it translate this obsession into food/grocery/financial and other services. Anthony Tan centered $GRAB success on affordability and reliability over the long-term since its early startup day. Essentially, the long-term TAM for servicing 2- 3 billion people is to get 30-50% of them on GrabUnlimited. Now it is $4.99 a month, will probably be adjusted to $7-$10 adjusted to inflation 10-15 years from now or around $7-$10B or more subscription revenue straight to net income B. Hyperfocus on Merchants: Grab has significantly focused on merchant growth as a core strategy to expand its ecosystem, particularly through its GrabFood, GrabMart, and financial services like GrabFinance. The reason is simple, these merchants/businesses are bringing in user growth. Businesses also pay GRAB on ea transaction very well, and at the same time using Cheap Loan(provided by Grab) to expand, and pay on GrabAds(this will have the highest margin after GrabUnlimited up to 50-60%). Grab also investing heavily on #AI to help merchants with OpenAI and Anthropic partnerships. The impact is unreal with this core strategy, many merchants today have more than 50-60% of its monhtly sales from $GRAB SuperApp(grew from 10-15% in 2021-2022). This approach has positioned Grab as a leader in Southeast Asia’s on-demand market, with significant potential for further expansion as it continues to innovate and optimize C. Hyperfocus on Drivers: In today world, you will never see $uber or Lyft talking about seeing drivers as customers. GRAB is the only company that sees Drivers as customers, and this focus is critical to maintaining a robust supply of driver-partners to meet consumer demand for ride-hailing, food delivery, and other services. Grab has scaled its driver network significantly since going public day with 5-6m registered driver-partners. Expanding rental/low fee fleets to secure drivers, creating stable employment in its current 8 countries. President Ferdinand R. Marcos Bongbong Marcos recently acknowledged $GRAB's significant impact on employment in the Philippines. All of 8 countries Grab operates in, all presidents and PM have praised Grab contribution on employment in their countries. GRAB makes its the company mission to expand more drivers registered on $GRAB SuperApp. Last Fun Fact, GRAB drivers in its 8 market have much higher income than BA degree holders and in many cases x2 or x3 the average salaries due to Grab Dynamic Pricing to bring supply and demand back to lowest price. AKA when demand is mad high, price will be higher to attract more drivers to bring down price. Drivers financial success is Grab long-term success. Conclusion: Grab's SuperApp success, as evidenced by Q1 2025 financials, is tied to putting customers, drivers, and merchants first. Their focus on safety, affordability, financial inclusion, and upskilling creates a robust ecosystem, reflected in increased MTUs, revenue growth, and profitability. The SuperApp will expand to 3 billion people TAM or more over the long term. 1. User Growth(Transactional Users) 2. GrabAds (expanding beyond SuperApp into Physical Grocery/Fleets) 3. GrabUnlimited( Expanding valuable services/features to make it stupid not to have it) Over the long-term, $GRAB will expand beyond SuperApp. Just like when Amazon has some spare computer capacity and decided to rent it out and became the AWS today, which is a behemoth that's now >4 times bigger than its original shopping business. No, I'm not saying $GRAB is the next Amazon. I'm telling you that with this "Secret Sauce" strategy of customer obsession, Anthony Tan can expand to other ventures with the massive FCF+ and profitable SuperApp to fund it. Disclaimer: I do own a large position in the Private Portfolio, and currently 100% on $GRAB on small public portfolio. This is the public portfolio where I contribute $500-$1000 of my own money. This public portfolio is not intended to be just 100% pure $GRAB, but it is the first position. I will try to keep it under 10 companies, and high quality growth businesses ONLY. I will not bother with garbage or hyped businesses where people just hype x10 x100 x1000 next week/year. You can follow others for that. Everything I wrote here is NOT Financial Advice! Source: Private Sources, Grab Dot Com, Webull, TOS, Bloomberg, Various Asian Media Outlets, Youtube, Anthony Tan, WSJ, Financial Times, Yahoo, Reuters, Jakarta Globe...
12:54

$GRAB Secret Sauce 🧵 How this company will thrive to $300B MC and beyond! It took me a while to gather the material for this thread. I will link down below other threads I talked extensively on all current and future $GRAB services to avoid making this thread too long. It is very important to understand product roadmap on the SuperApp, and how it will make money over the long-term, and transfer that value creation to shareholders. The closest analogy for new investors to understand is Amazon obsession over customers where $AMZN makes a little bit of money on each transaction to break even, but make the most money on Prime Membership. Or Costco obsession over customers where $COST makes 10-15% margin or lower on most products to break even on operation, but to make the most money on Costco membership fees. Jeff Bezos famously said "investors should invest in the company that obsesses customer experiencein the long term, there's never any misalignment between customer interests and shareholder interests!" The TLDR version: Being Customer Obsessed over Competition. We never heard much where Anthony Tan described or bitter about competition. Because Anthony does pay attention to competition, but he is more focused or obsessed on how to serve customers better at the lowest price possible, those that pay for $GRAB services. It is not just a business, it is a mission from first day of $GRAB or formerly known as MyTeksi. Anthony Tan and Co-founder Hooi Ling Tan both met at a class “Business at the Base of the Pyramid.” This class shaped the years of $GRAB success and today mission, creating a valuable business servicing the mass market, the lower income communities. Now, lets start with Customer Obession. $Grab does not see just users as customers, Anthony Tan views drivers, merchants, and partners are customers as well for long term success of the company. This is a big differentiator that contributed to GRAB success today. A. Hyperfocus on users: Grab emphasizes safety, with 99.9% of rides completed without incidents, and offers affordable options like Saver rides (26% of mobility transactions, 1.5X higher order frequency) alongside high-value services like Premium Rides and GrabUnlimited (3.7X more frequent usage, 2X higher retention). This likely enhances user satisfaction and retention, driving revenue growth, as seen in their Q1 2025 earnings of $773 million, up 18% year-over-year. But it does not stop at rides, it translate this obsession into food/grocery/financial and other services. Anthony Tan centered $GRAB success on affordability and reliability over the long-term since its early startup day. Essentially, the long-term TAM for servicing 2- 3 billion people is to get 30-50% of them on GrabUnlimited. Now it is $4.99 a month, will probably be adjusted to $7-$10 adjusted to inflation 10-15 years from now or around $7-$10B or more subscription revenue straight to net income B. Hyperfocus on Merchants: Grab has significantly focused on merchant growth as a core strategy to expand its ecosystem, particularly through its GrabFood, GrabMart, and financial services like GrabFinance. The reason is simple, these merchants/businesses are bringing in user growth. Businesses also pay GRAB on ea transaction very well, and at the same time using Cheap Loan(provided by Grab) to expand, and pay on GrabAds(this will have the highest margin after GrabUnlimited up to 50-60%). Grab also investing heavily on #AI to help merchants with OpenAI and Anthropic partnerships. The impact is unreal with this core strategy, many merchants today have more than 50-60% of its monhtly sales from $GRAB SuperApp(grew from 10-15% in 2021-2022). This approach has positioned Grab as a leader in Southeast Asia’s on-demand market, with significant potential for further expansion as it continues to innovate and optimize C. Hyperfocus on Drivers: In today world, you will never see $uber or Lyft talking about seeing drivers as customers. GRAB is the only company that sees Drivers as customers, and this focus is critical to maintaining a robust supply of driver-partners to meet consumer demand for ride-hailing, food delivery, and other services. Grab has scaled its driver network significantly since going public day with 5-6m registered driver-partners. Expanding rental/low fee fleets to secure drivers, creating stable employment in its current 8 countries. President Ferdinand R. Marcos Bongbong Marcos recently acknowledged $GRAB's significant impact on employment in the Philippines. All of 8 countries Grab operates in, all presidents and PM have praised Grab contribution on employment in their countries. GRAB makes its the company mission to expand more drivers registered on $GRAB SuperApp. Last Fun Fact, GRAB drivers in its 8 market have much higher income than BA degree holders and in many cases x2 or x3 the average salaries due to Grab Dynamic Pricing to bring supply and demand back to lowest price. AKA when demand is mad high, price will be higher to attract more drivers to bring down price. Drivers financial success is Grab long-term success. Conclusion: Grab's SuperApp success, as evidenced by Q1 2025 financials, is tied to putting customers, drivers, and merchants first. Their focus on safety, affordability, financial inclusion, and upskilling creates a robust ecosystem, reflected in increased MTUs, revenue growth, and profitability. The SuperApp will expand to 3 billion people TAM or more over the long term. 1. User Growth(Transactional Users) 2. GrabAds (expanding beyond SuperApp into Physical Grocery/Fleets) 3. GrabUnlimited( Expanding valuable services/features to make it stupid not to have it) Over the long-term, $GRAB will expand beyond SuperApp. Just like when Amazon has some spare computer capacity and decided to rent it out and became the AWS today, which is a behemoth that's now >4 times bigger than its original shopping business. No, I'm not saying $GRAB is the next Amazon. I'm telling you that with this "Secret Sauce" strategy of customer obsession, Anthony Tan can expand to other ventures with the massive FCF+ and profitable SuperApp to fund it. Disclaimer: I do own a large position in the Private Portfolio, and currently 100% on $GRAB on small public portfolio. This is the public portfolio where I contribute $500-$1000 of my own money. This public portfolio is not intended to be just 100% pure $GRAB, but it is the first position. I will try to keep it under 10 companies, and high quality growth businesses ONLY. I will not bother with garbage or hyped businesses where people just hype x10 x100 x1000 next week/year. You can follow others for that. Everything I wrote here is NOT Financial Advice! Source: Private Sources, Grab Dot Com, Webull, TOS, Bloomberg, Various Asian Media Outlets, Youtube, Anthony Tan, WSJ, Financial Times, Yahoo, Reuters, Jakarta Globe...

Mike

209,603 просмотров • 1 год назад

$GRAB Map is The New Google Maps(B2B)🧵 Here is your Free.99 analysis on GrabMap, for those that selling courses for $50-$500/m, if you are using my $GRAB and other analyses, I don't ask for much, at least give me some credit/cite. And yes 99.999% of my posts are Free.99. If you want to support my work, slap the like/repost, as I don't choose to write "Grab or any Ticker is going to x10 x100-x1000" kind of threads or "mark my words" to please the X Algo. Consider Subscribe($0.33/day) if you want to support my work further and get more in-depth analyses! TLDR: GrabMap could generate $7B-$15B a year alone for Grab B2B segment. That is why you are seeing Anthony Tan is mad excited abt this massive opportunity. And it also significantly boost GrabAds long term globally. This precisely proved my point that, Anthony is going to expand to 5B people and we are only 14% thesis realized right now. Grab doesn't have to be just Ride-share/Delivery when expanding! Grab , Southeast Asia's leading AI SuperApp for ride-hailing, food delivery, financial services,Tourism, Dine-Out and more, has developed its proprietary mapping platform, GrabMaps, a massive B2B revenue potential over the next long term, not just in Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, Vietnam, Cambodia, and Myanmar but expanding beyond SEA markets/Customers. 1. GrabMaps: A Strategic Asset GrabMaps is not merely a technological tool but a critical component of Grab's ecosystem, powering its ride-hailing, food delivery, and financial services. Developed in-house, GrabMaps leverages data collected from Grab's vast network of driver-partners across eight SEA countries. This data-driven approach ensures hyper-local customization, addressing the unique challenges of SEA's urban environments, such as narrow alleys, informal roads, and rapid infrastructure changes. The recent announcement of KartaCam2, an upgraded street-level imaging device, marks a significant technological advancement. KartaCam2 enhances data collection by providing higher quality images and more precise location data, which are crucial for maintaining the accuracy and freshness of maps. This breakthrough is part of Grab's broader 2025 AI push, including integrations with OpenAI 's GPT-4o for vision-based mapping and the establishment of an AI Centre of Excellence. These innovations position GrabMaps as a formidable competitor to Google Maps, especially in regions where localized data is paramount. 2. Revenue implications long term The expansion of GrabMaps into B2B services opens up new revenue streams, which could significantly impact Grab's financial performance over the long term. But GrabMap is a brandnew B2B product, and GoogleMap generates around $13-$20B globally. A. Market Opportunity in Southeast Asia ~The SEA market presents a substantial opportunity for GrabMaps. The foodservice market alone is projected to grow from $223.8 billion in 2025 to $416.3 billion by 2030, indicating a robust demand for services that enhance operational efficiencies. Businesses in logistics, e-commerce, and urban planning could benefit from GrabMaps' precise mapping and navigation capabilities, potentially generating revenue through licensing fees, subscription models, and advertising. ~Grab's existing user base of over 46 million monthly transacting users provides a strong foundation for cross-selling B2B solutions, thereby increasing revenue without significant additional marketing costs. B. Competitive Advantage of a Future $500B MC AI SuperApp over Google Map Google Maps, while dominant, may not be as finely tuned for SEA's unique challenges. GrabMaps' hyper-local data and AI-driven enhancements offer a competitive edge, attracting businesses that require accurate and cost-effective mapping solutions. Revenue from B2B services could include: Licensing Fees: Enterprises can license GrabMaps' APIs and SDKs to integrate mapping functionalities into their operations. Subscription Models: Continuous updates and premium features could be offered on a subscription basis. Advertising Revenue: GrabAds, which leverages mapping data, could generate additional income through targeted advertising. C. Global Expansion is Inevitable ~The partnership with Tino in Mongolia is a strategic move to scale GrabMaps internationally. This marks Grab's first major mapping partnership outside SEA, indicating potential for revenue growth in other regions where Google Maps' dominance is less entrenched or where local data needs are acute. ~The use of IoT devices like KartaCam2 and KartaDashCam for real-time data collection could further enhance GrabMaps' value proposition, potentially increasing revenue through premium service offerings in new markets. D. Synergies w/ other businesses Grab's ecosystem approach allows for synergies between GrabMaps and other services like GrabPay, GrabFood, and GrabTransport. For example, businesses using GrabMaps for logistics could also adopt GrabPay for transactions, creating a revenue multiplier effect. 3. Google Map Revenue in Asia ~Total Revenue in Asia-Pacific (2018): Google APAC, based in Singapore, reported $20.24 billion out of the total $21.37 billion revenue in the Asia-Pacific region. This indicates that a significant portion of Google's revenue in Asia is attributed to Singapore, likely due to its role as a hub for Google’s operations. ~Advertising Revenue: In 2018, Google APAC generated $15.8 billion from advertising alone, compared to $4.4 billion from other activities like Google Play. Advertising on Google properties, including Google Maps, is a major revenue driver. ~Market Share in Search Marketing: Google Maps holds a 62.34% market share in the search marketing category, competing with tools like Wix (26.54%) and Google Ads (4.14%). This dominance suggests that a considerable portion of Google’s advertising revenue in Asia is linked to mapping services. For the full fiscal year 2024, Alphabet (Google's parent company) generated $56.82 billion in revenue from the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region. This represented approximately 16.24% of the company's total revenue for the year. If we take a conservative estimate at 25% of $56.82B of Google's total advertising revenue in Asia is related to mapping services= $14.2B. => If GrabMaps secures even 50% of this market share in SEA, it could generate around $7B annually from this segment alone. GrabMap is 4x lower error rate, 10x lower latency, 75% fewer mapping mistakes, and much cheaper than GoogleMap. With OpenAI GPT-4o fine-tuning, GrabMaps hit 80% accuracy for speed limits and lanes13-20% above prior levels excelling in occlusions ( rainy monsoons) where Google relies more on satellite data. Now do you understand why Google and HSBC are clapping $GRAB on search and downgrade? Yes, because GrabMap is a massive threat and Grab Anthony Tan refused to buy $goto since 2020. Conclusion: Grab's expansion of GrabMaps into B2B services represents a strategic move to challenge Google Maps' dominance in Asia, particularly in SEA and future expansion. The revenue implications are substantial, with potential gains from licensing fees, subscription models, advertising, and international expansions. While Google Maps generates billions in revenue, primarily through advertising, GrabMaps' localized and AI-enhanced approach could carve out a significant niche, especially in regions where precise, real-time mapping data is critical. The success of this strategy will depend on Grab's ability to scale internationally, maintain technological superiority, and effectively monetize its B2B offerings. However, the opportunity is clear, and Grab's ecosystem approach positions it well to capitalize on the growing demand for advanced mapping solutions in a rapidly digitalizing world. This move not only enhances Grab's revenue potential but also solidifies its role as a key player in the global tech landscape. Not Financial Advice! Source: Grab Dot Com.
1:26

$GRAB Map is The New Google Maps(B2B)🧵 Here is your Free.99 analysis on GrabMap, for those that selling courses for $50-$500/m, if you are using my $GRAB and other analyses, I don't ask for much, at least give me some credit/cite. And yes 99.999% of my posts are Free.99. If you want to support my work, slap the like/repost, as I don't choose to write "Grab or any Ticker is going to x10 x100-x1000" kind of threads or "mark my words" to please the X Algo. Consider Subscribe($0.33/day) if you want to support my work further and get more in-depth analyses! TLDR: GrabMap could generate $7B-$15B a year alone for Grab B2B segment. That is why you are seeing Anthony Tan is mad excited abt this massive opportunity. And it also significantly boost GrabAds long term globally. This precisely proved my point that, Anthony is going to expand to 5B people and we are only 14% thesis realized right now. Grab doesn't have to be just Ride-share/Delivery when expanding! Grab , Southeast Asia's leading AI SuperApp for ride-hailing, food delivery, financial services,Tourism, Dine-Out and more, has developed its proprietary mapping platform, GrabMaps, a massive B2B revenue potential over the next long term, not just in Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Philippines, Vietnam, Cambodia, and Myanmar but expanding beyond SEA markets/Customers. 1. GrabMaps: A Strategic Asset GrabMaps is not merely a technological tool but a critical component of Grab's ecosystem, powering its ride-hailing, food delivery, and financial services. Developed in-house, GrabMaps leverages data collected from Grab's vast network of driver-partners across eight SEA countries. This data-driven approach ensures hyper-local customization, addressing the unique challenges of SEA's urban environments, such as narrow alleys, informal roads, and rapid infrastructure changes. The recent announcement of KartaCam2, an upgraded street-level imaging device, marks a significant technological advancement. KartaCam2 enhances data collection by providing higher quality images and more precise location data, which are crucial for maintaining the accuracy and freshness of maps. This breakthrough is part of Grab's broader 2025 AI push, including integrations with OpenAI 's GPT-4o for vision-based mapping and the establishment of an AI Centre of Excellence. These innovations position GrabMaps as a formidable competitor to Google Maps, especially in regions where localized data is paramount. 2. Revenue implications long term The expansion of GrabMaps into B2B services opens up new revenue streams, which could significantly impact Grab's financial performance over the long term. But GrabMap is a brandnew B2B product, and GoogleMap generates around $13-$20B globally. A. Market Opportunity in Southeast Asia ~The SEA market presents a substantial opportunity for GrabMaps. The foodservice market alone is projected to grow from $223.8 billion in 2025 to $416.3 billion by 2030, indicating a robust demand for services that enhance operational efficiencies. Businesses in logistics, e-commerce, and urban planning could benefit from GrabMaps' precise mapping and navigation capabilities, potentially generating revenue through licensing fees, subscription models, and advertising. ~Grab's existing user base of over 46 million monthly transacting users provides a strong foundation for cross-selling B2B solutions, thereby increasing revenue without significant additional marketing costs. B. Competitive Advantage of a Future $500B MC AI SuperApp over Google Map Google Maps, while dominant, may not be as finely tuned for SEA's unique challenges. GrabMaps' hyper-local data and AI-driven enhancements offer a competitive edge, attracting businesses that require accurate and cost-effective mapping solutions. Revenue from B2B services could include: Licensing Fees: Enterprises can license GrabMaps' APIs and SDKs to integrate mapping functionalities into their operations. Subscription Models: Continuous updates and premium features could be offered on a subscription basis. Advertising Revenue: GrabAds, which leverages mapping data, could generate additional income through targeted advertising. C. Global Expansion is Inevitable ~The partnership with Tino in Mongolia is a strategic move to scale GrabMaps internationally. This marks Grab's first major mapping partnership outside SEA, indicating potential for revenue growth in other regions where Google Maps' dominance is less entrenched or where local data needs are acute. ~The use of IoT devices like KartaCam2 and KartaDashCam for real-time data collection could further enhance GrabMaps' value proposition, potentially increasing revenue through premium service offerings in new markets. D. Synergies w/ other businesses Grab's ecosystem approach allows for synergies between GrabMaps and other services like GrabPay, GrabFood, and GrabTransport. For example, businesses using GrabMaps for logistics could also adopt GrabPay for transactions, creating a revenue multiplier effect. 3. Google Map Revenue in Asia ~Total Revenue in Asia-Pacific (2018): Google APAC, based in Singapore, reported $20.24 billion out of the total $21.37 billion revenue in the Asia-Pacific region. This indicates that a significant portion of Google's revenue in Asia is attributed to Singapore, likely due to its role as a hub for Google’s operations. ~Advertising Revenue: In 2018, Google APAC generated $15.8 billion from advertising alone, compared to $4.4 billion from other activities like Google Play. Advertising on Google properties, including Google Maps, is a major revenue driver. ~Market Share in Search Marketing: Google Maps holds a 62.34% market share in the search marketing category, competing with tools like Wix (26.54%) and Google Ads (4.14%). This dominance suggests that a considerable portion of Google’s advertising revenue in Asia is linked to mapping services. For the full fiscal year 2024, Alphabet (Google's parent company) generated $56.82 billion in revenue from the Asia-Pacific (APAC) region. This represented approximately 16.24% of the company's total revenue for the year. If we take a conservative estimate at 25% of $56.82B of Google's total advertising revenue in Asia is related to mapping services= $14.2B. => If GrabMaps secures even 50% of this market share in SEA, it could generate around $7B annually from this segment alone. GrabMap is 4x lower error rate, 10x lower latency, 75% fewer mapping mistakes, and much cheaper than GoogleMap. With OpenAI GPT-4o fine-tuning, GrabMaps hit 80% accuracy for speed limits and lanes13-20% above prior levels excelling in occlusions ( rainy monsoons) where Google relies more on satellite data. Now do you understand why Google and HSBC are clapping $GRAB on search and downgrade? Yes, because GrabMap is a massive threat and Grab Anthony Tan refused to buy $goto since 2020. Conclusion: Grab's expansion of GrabMaps into B2B services represents a strategic move to challenge Google Maps' dominance in Asia, particularly in SEA and future expansion. The revenue implications are substantial, with potential gains from licensing fees, subscription models, advertising, and international expansions. While Google Maps generates billions in revenue, primarily through advertising, GrabMaps' localized and AI-enhanced approach could carve out a significant niche, especially in regions where precise, real-time mapping data is critical. The success of this strategy will depend on Grab's ability to scale internationally, maintain technological superiority, and effectively monetize its B2B offerings. However, the opportunity is clear, and Grab's ecosystem approach positions it well to capitalize on the growing demand for advanced mapping solutions in a rapidly digitalizing world. This move not only enhances Grab's revenue potential but also solidifies its role as a key player in the global tech landscape. Not Financial Advice! Source: Grab Dot Com.

Mike

120,774 просмотров • 11 месяцев назад

$ASTI Ascent Solar Technologies Space and Drone Solar Panels The "Going to Zero" or Mispriced Space/Drone Solar Play Intro and comparison to $RKLB and $RDW panels Let’s get the ugly stuff out of the way first. $ASTI is a distressed penny stock with a ~$5M-$10M market cap. • They burn millions in cash. • 2024 Revenue: ~$40k. 2025 Revenue (YTD): ~$60k. • They generate less revenue than a single Tesla Model Y. • They have diluted shareholders relentlessly. $ASTI just raised $2M in December with the potential of $3.5M more via warrants while being a ~$5M mcap "company". Yikes. To most, this is "uninvestable trash." Stay away. Full stop. So why did I buy ~5% of the float? IF the technology works and IF they execute then I believe this is a massive market pricing dislocation about to inflect. They have been grinding for years and may finally be hitting an inflection point. $RKLB Rocketlab is the king of space solar and they are my second largest position overall, but here is why $ASTI might be a very high risk but asymmetric bet in Space & Defense right now. 1. The Tech Pivot: Flexible CIGS vs. The World Ascent started in 2005 but pivoted 2 years ago from consumer to pure-play Space & Defense. They have sunk ~$250M and 20 years of R&D into proprietary CIGS (Copper-Indium-Gallium-Selenide) thin-film technology while building out fully domestic and vertically integrated manufacturing capabilities. The Physics: • Thickness: 0.03 mm (Thinner than paper). • Flexibility: Wraps around drones/satellites; rolls up like a poster. • Durability: "Self-Healing" capabilities against space radiation. Can take a bullet or micrometeoroid and keep working. Can handle shocks/vibration. Does not shatter. The Metric that Matters: Specific Power (W/kg) (aka energy to weight ratio) In space, mass means cost and difficult decision decisions. • Rocket Lab ($RKLB) / Spectrolab: ~150 W/kg (System level). • Ascent Solar ($ASTI): ~1,960 W/kg (Module level). $ASTI is roughly 10x lighter for the same power output potential (mass-wise). This frees up design limitations and cost. 2. The Competition: $RKLB & $RDW Rocket Lab (SolAero) & Redwire (iROSA): • Tech: Rigid Crystal Cells (Multi-junction) embedded in a fabric mesh. • Pros: Extreme Efficiency (~30%+). Perfect for limited surface area. • Cons: Heavy, Brittle, Expensive ($3k-$10k per Watt). Manufacturing multi-junction cells (SolAero) involves slowly growing crystals in a vacuum chamber. With radiation the panels degrade and loose efficiency over time which will limit the satellite lifespan. • Use Case: James Webb Telescope, Flagship missions. Ascent Solar (ASTI): • Tech: Flexible Thin-Film on Plastic. • Pros: Ultra-light, Durable, Cheap ($500-$1k per Watt). Manufacturing CIGS is roughly similar to printing newspapers (roll-to-roll). The panels are radiation degradation resistant and will outlive the satellite • Cons: Lower Efficiency (~17.5%). Requires 2x surface area. • Use Case: Mega-Constellations (Starlink/Amazon Leo), Small/Low cost satellites, Drones, Deformable surfaces. The lower efficiency is not an ASTI failing. It is the inherent physics trade-off of not using glass/rigid silicone. The downside however is increased atmospheric drag with very larger/massive panel sheets. Because ASTI modules are ~50% less efficient than rigid panels, they require ~2x the physical surface area to generate the same amount of power. In GEO (High Orbit): Drag doesn't matter. Weight savings are king. A massive solar array allows for more sensors and longer project lifespan. ASTI is highly competitive here. In LEO (Low Orbit): Atmospheric drag is real. A massive solar array acts like a large parachute, causing the satellite to de-orbit faster unless it burns more fuel to stay up. At LEO, smaller satellites are a better fit for ASTI. 3. Durability & Radiation "Self-Healing" Radiation Hardness This is ASTI's "Ace in the Hole" for physics. The Problem: In space, high-energy protons (radiation) smash into solar cells, creating atomic "defects" that trap electrons. Over time, this kills the panel's power output (degradation). The CIGS Advantage: CIGS (Copper-Indium-Gallium-Selenide) material has a unique property where heat (annealing) allows the atomic structure to relax and "heal" these defects. Self-Healing: Because CIGS heals at relatively low temperatures (often achieved just by the sun heating the panel), it suffers significantly less degradation than traditional Silicon or even some GaAs panels over long missions in high-radiation belts (like MEO or GEO). Lifespan: While a rigid GaAs panel might lose 15-20% of its power over 15 years (enough to kill a satellite), CIGS panels heal and can maintain a flatter power curve, potentially outlasting the satellite itself in high-radiation orbits. 4. Brittleness & Flexibility ASTI (CIGS on Polyimide): Flexible. You can roll it like a poster. It can take a bullet or micrometeoroid and the hole will just be a dead spot; the rest of the panel keeps working. It does not shatter. Redwire (ROSA) & Rocket Lab (SolAero): Brittle Cells on a Flex Blanket. $RDW's ROSA (Roll-Out Solar Array) typically uses rigid multi-junction cells (made by SolAero/Rocket Lab or Spectrolab) mounted on a flexible mesh fabric. The Risk: If you bend the cells too far, they crack. They rely on the mesh backing for flexibility, but the active generating material is still a brittle crystal wafer. Much heavier, more expensive, and less durable than $ASTI's option 5. The Inflection Point (Why Now?) After years of silent struggle, late 2025 has seen an explosion of activity. Recent Agreements (Nov/Dec 2025): NovaSpark: Hydrogen-powered military drones. $ASTI panels generate power in the field → NovaSpark creates hydrogen fuel. CisLunar Industries: Integrating ASTI solar with power conversion hardware for deep space longevity. Defiant Space: A strategic alliance to act as the "door opener" for classified DoD/NATO programs. More headlines: Ascent Solar Technologies Provides Leading Space Company with Thin-Film PV modules for Spacecraft Power Generation Testing in Cislunar Space December 03, 2025 08:00 ET Ascent Solar Technologies Delivers Thin-Film PV for Saltwater Environment Durability and Space-Based Power Beaming Testing October 14, 2025 08:00 ET Ascent Solar Enters Teaming Agreement with Emtel Energy USA to Advance Thin-Film PV Energy Storage Capabilities September 16, 2025 08:00 ET Ascent Solar Technologies Signs MOU with Star Catcher Industries to Improve Power Capabilities for Thin-Film Solar Technology in Space August 28, 2025 08:00 ET Ascent Solar Technologies Establishes Rapid Thin-Film PV Delivery Process to Provide Customized Space Solar Products Ahead of Schedule on Mission Enabling Timelines August 07, 2025 08:00 ET The Pipeline (From Aug Corporate Presentation) 18 new NDA's signed in 2025. They are field testing with 3 major players: • Company A: Mega-constellation (+2,500 satellites). • Company B: Space Defense (Explicitly mentioned "Golden Dome"). • Company C: Satellite Manufacturer (30-200 unit scale). Management: New board members include a former founding member of SpaceX and a retired Air Force General and Deputy Assistant Secretary for Contracting (acquisitions expert). The company started in 2005 based out of Colorado, but two years ago pivoted to Space & Defense and away from consumer applications. Made in USA: Defense contracts heavily favor domestic supply chains. ASTI manufactures in Colorado. This is a huge moat against cheap Chinese solar. In their Q3 report they note that their market has seen sudden recent acceleration. The space solar industry is currently only capable of 8 to 12 MW per year of production meanwhile the demand is growing to over 100 MW per year. 6. The Risk (The Sword of Damocles) ⚠️ This is critical. $ASTI just raised ~$2M in December. Attached to that raise are ~2 Million Warrants with a strike price of $1.70. These are exercisable immediately. If the stock rips to $3.00, warrant holders exercise at $1.70 and dump on the market for a risk-free 76% profit. This creates a massive "sell wall" and potential 40% dilution of the float. Summary: This is a binary bet. • Bear Case: They run out of cash in 6 months, dilution spirals, stock goes to $0. • Bull Case: They land one of the "Company A/B/C" contracts. Revenue jumps from $60k to projected $20M+ in 2026. The stock reprices from a "bankrupt penny stock" to a "critical defense/space supplier." I have gradually accumulated ~5% of the float. I am ready for it to go to zero. But if the space economy demands "Cheap, Light, and Durable," $ASTI is the only public pure-play. Disclaimer: This is a very high-risk microcap. Do your own due diligence. Not financial advice.
3:04

$ASTI Ascent Solar Technologies Space and Drone Solar Panels The "Going to Zero" or Mispriced Space/Drone Solar Play Intro and comparison to $RKLB and $RDW panels Let’s get the ugly stuff out of the way first. $ASTI is a distressed penny stock with a ~$5M-$10M market cap. • They burn millions in cash. • 2024 Revenue: ~$40k. 2025 Revenue (YTD): ~$60k. • They generate less revenue than a single Tesla Model Y. • They have diluted shareholders relentlessly. $ASTI just raised $2M in December with the potential of $3.5M more via warrants while being a ~$5M mcap "company". Yikes. To most, this is "uninvestable trash." Stay away. Full stop. So why did I buy ~5% of the float? IF the technology works and IF they execute then I believe this is a massive market pricing dislocation about to inflect. They have been grinding for years and may finally be hitting an inflection point. $RKLB Rocketlab is the king of space solar and they are my second largest position overall, but here is why $ASTI might be a very high risk but asymmetric bet in Space & Defense right now. 1. The Tech Pivot: Flexible CIGS vs. The World Ascent started in 2005 but pivoted 2 years ago from consumer to pure-play Space & Defense. They have sunk ~$250M and 20 years of R&D into proprietary CIGS (Copper-Indium-Gallium-Selenide) thin-film technology while building out fully domestic and vertically integrated manufacturing capabilities. The Physics: • Thickness: 0.03 mm (Thinner than paper). • Flexibility: Wraps around drones/satellites; rolls up like a poster. • Durability: "Self-Healing" capabilities against space radiation. Can take a bullet or micrometeoroid and keep working. Can handle shocks/vibration. Does not shatter. The Metric that Matters: Specific Power (W/kg) (aka energy to weight ratio) In space, mass means cost and difficult decision decisions. • Rocket Lab ($RKLB) / Spectrolab: ~150 W/kg (System level). • Ascent Solar ($ASTI): ~1,960 W/kg (Module level). $ASTI is roughly 10x lighter for the same power output potential (mass-wise). This frees up design limitations and cost. 2. The Competition: $RKLB & $RDW Rocket Lab (SolAero) & Redwire (iROSA): • Tech: Rigid Crystal Cells (Multi-junction) embedded in a fabric mesh. • Pros: Extreme Efficiency (~30%+). Perfect for limited surface area. • Cons: Heavy, Brittle, Expensive ($3k-$10k per Watt). Manufacturing multi-junction cells (SolAero) involves slowly growing crystals in a vacuum chamber. With radiation the panels degrade and loose efficiency over time which will limit the satellite lifespan. • Use Case: James Webb Telescope, Flagship missions. Ascent Solar (ASTI): • Tech: Flexible Thin-Film on Plastic. • Pros: Ultra-light, Durable, Cheap ($500-$1k per Watt). Manufacturing CIGS is roughly similar to printing newspapers (roll-to-roll). The panels are radiation degradation resistant and will outlive the satellite • Cons: Lower Efficiency (~17.5%). Requires 2x surface area. • Use Case: Mega-Constellations (Starlink/Amazon Leo), Small/Low cost satellites, Drones, Deformable surfaces. The lower efficiency is not an ASTI failing. It is the inherent physics trade-off of not using glass/rigid silicone. The downside however is increased atmospheric drag with very larger/massive panel sheets. Because ASTI modules are ~50% less efficient than rigid panels, they require ~2x the physical surface area to generate the same amount of power. In GEO (High Orbit): Drag doesn't matter. Weight savings are king. A massive solar array allows for more sensors and longer project lifespan. ASTI is highly competitive here. In LEO (Low Orbit): Atmospheric drag is real. A massive solar array acts like a large parachute, causing the satellite to de-orbit faster unless it burns more fuel to stay up. At LEO, smaller satellites are a better fit for ASTI. 3. Durability & Radiation "Self-Healing" Radiation Hardness This is ASTI's "Ace in the Hole" for physics. The Problem: In space, high-energy protons (radiation) smash into solar cells, creating atomic "defects" that trap electrons. Over time, this kills the panel's power output (degradation). The CIGS Advantage: CIGS (Copper-Indium-Gallium-Selenide) material has a unique property where heat (annealing) allows the atomic structure to relax and "heal" these defects. Self-Healing: Because CIGS heals at relatively low temperatures (often achieved just by the sun heating the panel), it suffers significantly less degradation than traditional Silicon or even some GaAs panels over long missions in high-radiation belts (like MEO or GEO). Lifespan: While a rigid GaAs panel might lose 15-20% of its power over 15 years (enough to kill a satellite), CIGS panels heal and can maintain a flatter power curve, potentially outlasting the satellite itself in high-radiation orbits. 4. Brittleness & Flexibility ASTI (CIGS on Polyimide): Flexible. You can roll it like a poster. It can take a bullet or micrometeoroid and the hole will just be a dead spot; the rest of the panel keeps working. It does not shatter. Redwire (ROSA) & Rocket Lab (SolAero): Brittle Cells on a Flex Blanket. $RDW's ROSA (Roll-Out Solar Array) typically uses rigid multi-junction cells (made by SolAero/Rocket Lab or Spectrolab) mounted on a flexible mesh fabric. The Risk: If you bend the cells too far, they crack. They rely on the mesh backing for flexibility, but the active generating material is still a brittle crystal wafer. Much heavier, more expensive, and less durable than $ASTI's option 5. The Inflection Point (Why Now?) After years of silent struggle, late 2025 has seen an explosion of activity. Recent Agreements (Nov/Dec 2025): NovaSpark: Hydrogen-powered military drones. $ASTI panels generate power in the field → NovaSpark creates hydrogen fuel. CisLunar Industries: Integrating ASTI solar with power conversion hardware for deep space longevity. Defiant Space: A strategic alliance to act as the "door opener" for classified DoD/NATO programs. More headlines: Ascent Solar Technologies Provides Leading Space Company with Thin-Film PV modules for Spacecraft Power Generation Testing in Cislunar Space December 03, 2025 08:00 ET Ascent Solar Technologies Delivers Thin-Film PV for Saltwater Environment Durability and Space-Based Power Beaming Testing October 14, 2025 08:00 ET Ascent Solar Enters Teaming Agreement with Emtel Energy USA to Advance Thin-Film PV Energy Storage Capabilities September 16, 2025 08:00 ET Ascent Solar Technologies Signs MOU with Star Catcher Industries to Improve Power Capabilities for Thin-Film Solar Technology in Space August 28, 2025 08:00 ET Ascent Solar Technologies Establishes Rapid Thin-Film PV Delivery Process to Provide Customized Space Solar Products Ahead of Schedule on Mission Enabling Timelines August 07, 2025 08:00 ET The Pipeline (From Aug Corporate Presentation) 18 new NDA's signed in 2025. They are field testing with 3 major players: • Company A: Mega-constellation (+2,500 satellites). • Company B: Space Defense (Explicitly mentioned "Golden Dome"). • Company C: Satellite Manufacturer (30-200 unit scale). Management: New board members include a former founding member of SpaceX and a retired Air Force General and Deputy Assistant Secretary for Contracting (acquisitions expert). The company started in 2005 based out of Colorado, but two years ago pivoted to Space & Defense and away from consumer applications. Made in USA: Defense contracts heavily favor domestic supply chains. ASTI manufactures in Colorado. This is a huge moat against cheap Chinese solar. In their Q3 report they note that their market has seen sudden recent acceleration. The space solar industry is currently only capable of 8 to 12 MW per year of production meanwhile the demand is growing to over 100 MW per year. 6. The Risk (The Sword of Damocles) ⚠️ This is critical. $ASTI just raised ~$2M in December. Attached to that raise are ~2 Million Warrants with a strike price of $1.70. These are exercisable immediately. If the stock rips to $3.00, warrant holders exercise at $1.70 and dump on the market for a risk-free 76% profit. This creates a massive "sell wall" and potential 40% dilution of the float. Summary: This is a binary bet. • Bear Case: They run out of cash in 6 months, dilution spirals, stock goes to $0. • Bull Case: They land one of the "Company A/B/C" contracts. Revenue jumps from $60k to projected $20M+ in 2026. The stock reprices from a "bankrupt penny stock" to a "critical defense/space supplier." I have gradually accumulated ~5% of the float. I am ready for it to go to zero. But if the space economy demands "Cheap, Light, and Durable," $ASTI is the only public pure-play. Disclaimer: This is a very high-risk microcap. Do your own due diligence. Not financial advice.

YeahDave

208,571 просмотров • 9 месяцев назад

$AMD is easily a $1,200 stock IMO| CPUs TAM 🧵 Not Financial Advice! DYOR! In this thread, I want to discuss the actual TAM for CPUs data center for just 2026, where many are giving different ranges, where I don't agree with. I will explain in detail why I disagree with these research firms and financial analysts using Math. And this thread should not be treated as Financial Advice. I'm just explaining my research and thought process so we can have a discussion. In 2024/2025, I gave out $620 PT for FY2026 was too conservative for AMD potential. At the time, It was early and many were just laughing, that PT was unrealistic and the AI world is run on GPUs only. Today, most of these folks are laughing with me. That is ok, I dont offer financial advice, and I do not need everyone to agree with me. I respect other opinions. If you enjoy this kind of thread, slap the like/repost/bookmark. If you want to support my work further and gain more in-depth analysis, consider subscribe! In early 2026, hyperscalers, enterprises, and OEMs are scrambling as Intel and AMD server CPUs are largely sold out for the year, with prices jumping 10–20% and lead times stretching from weeks to months (or longer for certain SKUs). What was once a GPU dominated story has flipped: the shift to explosive Agentic AI with its multi-step reasoning loops, tool calling, multi-agent orchestration, real-time data movement, and reinforcement learning, is dramatically tightening CPU:GPU ratios from the old training-era 1:4–8 all the way to 1:1 to 5:1 or even CPU-heavy configurations. CEOs across NVIDIA, AMD, Intel, Google, Meta, Microsoft, and public companies have been sounding the alarm on CNBC, Bloomberg, and earnings calls. CPUs are “cool again,” and in many agentic deployments they are becoming the new bottleneck alongside (or even ahead of) GPUs and custom ASICs. In 2025, roughly 12-15m AI GPUs + AI ASICs GPUs shipped, and is expect to be 15-20m units by 2026, where it suggesting Training demand is not going away. The actual TAM is structural, multiplicative demand that has already forced AMD to double its long-term server CPU TAM forecast to >$120 billion by 2030 (>35% CAGR), with Dr. Lisa Su noting Q2 2026 server CPU sales expected to surge 70%+ year-over-year and demand “far exceeding expectations.” At the same time, AMD’s secured 30–40% share of TSMC’s initial 2nm capacity (behind only Apple’s >50%) positions it to ramp Zen 6-based EPYC Venice exactly when this agentic wave hits hardest but even that aggressive five-fab 2nm expansion (with plans scaling toward 11 total advanced facilities) cannot instantly close the gap in the near-term. Supply constraints on wafers, advanced packaging, and power are compounding the squeeze, just as hyperscalers forward-buy and lock in long-term deals. 1. The actual potential TAM Various sources and institutions are giving $50-$160-$200B CPUs TAM toward 2030, and i disagree, where supply is severely behind vs Demand by at least 2-3 years or even longer by some estimates. The actual TAM will probably be 15-20m for FY2026. The typical average selling price from low to high end is $5,000 to $15,000, but due to rising memory, and different inflationary pressures on Semi, it would be more logical to think between $7,000-17,000. A. CPU:GPU Ratio at 1:1 A basic calucation at mid range =12,000 x 15-20m CPUs= $180-$240B TAM B. CPU:GPU Ratio at 5:1 = $12,000 x 75m-100m CPUs= $900B-$1.2T TAM Of course TSMC cannot even supply 20% of this massive inflection TAM in 2026. But do we think of Demand for TAM or Supply for TAM? Hence we are seeing massive 2nm Ramp from TSMC for $AMD. IMO, conservatively, I would take down 15-20% on 1:1 or $135-$192B TAM for just 2026. Im not even talking about 2030. We are just months into this, it is impossible to estimate Cagr atm, but this is 1-5 agents running tasks, I wrote a thread on 24/7 autonomous agents thread, where companies could use 50-250 agents to run tasks for them 24/7. It would require a different structural CPU:GPU to bring down the cost of token as well as handling the Orchestration bottleneck. GPUs would be useless and sit idle waiting for CPU due to highly CPU-intensive nature. The cost per Million tokens must come down more rapidly for this 50-250 autonomous agents to work, otherwise the token cost would be too enormous. Helios Rack is estimated to bring inference cost down to $0.0003-$0.0005/M tokens with 18 EPYC Venices along with 72 MI455x and other chips+ Components. A heavier or CPUs dense rack would bring down inference cost further. EPYC Verano(2027 gen 7 AI-optimized) is expected to drive inference costs meaningfully lower than the Venice baseline likely to the $0.00002–$0.00025 per million tokens range (or even sub-$0.00015 in highly optimized agentic/batch workloads). Verano have higher core counts than Venice, LPDDR5X SOCAMM2 memory support, more AI optimized and Next-Gen rack density & efficiency. 2. $AMD secured at least 30-40% of TSMC 2nm capacity and Memory from Samsung through 2028-2030. 2 2nm fabs are entering ramping phase toward 60-65k wafers per months and 5 dedicated 2nm fabs entering mass production/ramp in 2026. Will link sub threads below if you are interest for full detail. Apple is reported to secure 50%+ 2nm capacity for Iphone 18 and Mac chips and AMD secured at least 30-40% capacity while $NVDA $AVGO $ARM $AMZN $GOOGL and others are on 3nm. This broader aggressive ramp from TSMC to target up to 11 fabs is to address $AMD massive growth ahead. Where $ARM is facing massive CPUs supply constraints as they have to compete with other Mega Cap players on 3nm allocation. And $INTC is also facing supply constraints for data center CPUs and PC per management with lead times extrended to longer than 12 weeks. Dr. Su is aiming for higher than 50%+ Market share, and I believe it is achievable in 2026 or 2027 as AMD has the strongest CPUs offerings. Dr. Su did not want to take advantage of the shortage and she said during the Q1 earning call, AMD is prioritizing Units shipped while guiding margin to be inching 60%. If Jensen were in charge, I'm sure margin would be 70-75% in this kind of severe CPUs shortage condition. But that is not how Dr. Su operates for more than a decade. She wants most market share. So we will see it in revenue growth, but as TSMC ramps faster and faster, AMD Operating and FCF margin will massively improve vs prior decade. A significantly higher margin profile than before. 3. How I came up with $1,200 withint 12-18 months? At $1,200/ share, that would be around $2 Trillion MC. I expect FY2027 revenue to be $124-$144B where data center revenue dominates overall revenue. AI GPUs: I will stick to the lowest end so show u that I'm conservative at $18B for each GW vs $NVDA Rubin is $30B+ (most likely Helios Rack in the $20B+ due to memory price rising). We know deals with OpenAI and Meta are around 12GW and additional multi-customers at multi-GW scale were hinted and will be revealed as we get to July 22-23 2026 Advancing AI event. For now I will conservatively add a bit more to this model. (3-6GW Helios Rack Range) EPYC Venice is reported to be in $15,000-$20,000. However large customers will likely to enjoy $10-$12k discount. I expect AMD to be able to ramp 7m EPYC Venice for entire 2026 and 3-4m of EPYC Verano(higher price than Venice). If we take an average selling price of $10,000 to be on the conservative side. Take down another 30% to be even more conservative on projection. I like to be conservative. That would be ~ 7m EPYC CPUs(Venice + Verano) for FY2027 or 583,000 units per month or 15,000 additional 2nm wafers per month which is completely reasonable for current TSMC Ramp, and I may be too conservative here. EPYC Verano and MI500 series will also be on 2nm. AI GPUs: 3GW x $18B= $54B EPYC CPUs: $10k x 7m CPUs= $70B = Data center revenue alone is $124B Other segments= probably in the $20-$25B FY 2027. FY2027 revenue = $124-$149B At 7m EPYC CPUs for entire 2027, that would be more than 50% market share when we comp it to availability from supply side, not from total Demand. It is possible that TSMC could significantly ramp even more capacity in 2027, so we will see. Metric Q1 2026 FY2027 Gross Margin 55-56% 60-62% Operating Margin 25-26% 32-35% Net Income Margin ~22% 26-30% FCF Margin 25% 28-30% At $124-$149B Revenue FY 2027 Net Income would be $32-$44B EPS would be $20-$27 (GAAP) Non-GAAP would be $25-$31 At $1,200 a share or $2T valuation that would be: 13.4-16x Price to Sales (P/S) 38-48 P/E At this kind of growth of AI SuperCycle, I think it is very reasonable valuation. If we use today at $406/share or $661B MC: 2027 P/S = 4.4x-5.3x 2027 P/E = 13x-16x Is AMD today expensive or cheap to you? Above is already a very conservative where I trimmed 20-30% of doable units. Meaning, there could be upside if TSMC is able to ramp meaningfully like they are planning. Conclusion: A $1,200 per share valuation IMO for AMD in FY2027 is not expensive at all; it is, in fact, conservative when viewed against the structural explosion in agentic AI demand we have mapped out. With server CPU TAM potentially scaling into the $100–$200B+ range in just CPU:GPU 1:1 Ratio for just 2026. AMD positioned to capture 50%+ share thanks to its 2nm TSMC allocation advantage and full-stack leadership, the company could realistically deliver $124–149B in total revenue and $25–$31+ non-GAAP EPS. At those levels, $1,200 implies a 2027 P/E = 13x-16x. Entirely reasonable for a company that will have become the clear Inference Queen (and in many workloads the preferred) AI infrastructure provider, with operating margins expanding above 30% and tens of billions in high-margin rack-scale AI revenue. Dr. Lisa Su was right presciently so about the Agentic AI inflection all the way back to her early 2022–2023 commentary on the coming shift from pure training to inference and orchestration-heavy workloads. While the broader market only fully woke up to this in 2026 when she doubled AMD’s long-term server CPU TAM forecast to >$120B by 2030 (with >35% CAGR), Dr. Su and her team have consistently positioned the company at the center of the CPU renaissance. The explosive demand we are seeing today, sold-out lines, rising ASPs, and hyperscalers forward-buying entire gigawatts of Helios-class systems is exactly the outcome she forecasted years ago. Not Financial Advice! DYOR!
13:03

$AMD is easily a $1,200 stock IMO| CPUs TAM 🧵 Not Financial Advice! DYOR! In this thread, I want to discuss the actual TAM for CPUs data center for just 2026, where many are giving different ranges, where I don't agree with. I will explain in detail why I disagree with these research firms and financial analysts using Math. And this thread should not be treated as Financial Advice. I'm just explaining my research and thought process so we can have a discussion. In 2024/2025, I gave out $620 PT for FY2026 was too conservative for AMD potential. At the time, It was early and many were just laughing, that PT was unrealistic and the AI world is run on GPUs only. Today, most of these folks are laughing with me. That is ok, I dont offer financial advice, and I do not need everyone to agree with me. I respect other opinions. If you enjoy this kind of thread, slap the like/repost/bookmark. If you want to support my work further and gain more in-depth analysis, consider subscribe! In early 2026, hyperscalers, enterprises, and OEMs are scrambling as Intel and AMD server CPUs are largely sold out for the year, with prices jumping 10–20% and lead times stretching from weeks to months (or longer for certain SKUs). What was once a GPU dominated story has flipped: the shift to explosive Agentic AI with its multi-step reasoning loops, tool calling, multi-agent orchestration, real-time data movement, and reinforcement learning, is dramatically tightening CPU:GPU ratios from the old training-era 1:4–8 all the way to 1:1 to 5:1 or even CPU-heavy configurations. CEOs across NVIDIA, AMD, Intel, Google, Meta, Microsoft, and public companies have been sounding the alarm on CNBC, Bloomberg, and earnings calls. CPUs are “cool again,” and in many agentic deployments they are becoming the new bottleneck alongside (or even ahead of) GPUs and custom ASICs. In 2025, roughly 12-15m AI GPUs + AI ASICs GPUs shipped, and is expect to be 15-20m units by 2026, where it suggesting Training demand is not going away. The actual TAM is structural, multiplicative demand that has already forced AMD to double its long-term server CPU TAM forecast to >$120 billion by 2030 (>35% CAGR), with Dr. Lisa Su noting Q2 2026 server CPU sales expected to surge 70%+ year-over-year and demand “far exceeding expectations.” At the same time, AMD’s secured 30–40% share of TSMC’s initial 2nm capacity (behind only Apple’s >50%) positions it to ramp Zen 6-based EPYC Venice exactly when this agentic wave hits hardest but even that aggressive five-fab 2nm expansion (with plans scaling toward 11 total advanced facilities) cannot instantly close the gap in the near-term. Supply constraints on wafers, advanced packaging, and power are compounding the squeeze, just as hyperscalers forward-buy and lock in long-term deals. 1. The actual potential TAM Various sources and institutions are giving $50-$160-$200B CPUs TAM toward 2030, and i disagree, where supply is severely behind vs Demand by at least 2-3 years or even longer by some estimates. The actual TAM will probably be 15-20m for FY2026. The typical average selling price from low to high end is $5,000 to $15,000, but due to rising memory, and different inflationary pressures on Semi, it would be more logical to think between $7,000-17,000. A. CPU:GPU Ratio at 1:1 A basic calucation at mid range =12,000 x 15-20m CPUs= $180-$240B TAM B. CPU:GPU Ratio at 5:1 = $12,000 x 75m-100m CPUs= $900B-$1.2T TAM Of course TSMC cannot even supply 20% of this massive inflection TAM in 2026. But do we think of Demand for TAM or Supply for TAM? Hence we are seeing massive 2nm Ramp from TSMC for $AMD. IMO, conservatively, I would take down 15-20% on 1:1 or $135-$192B TAM for just 2026. Im not even talking about 2030. We are just months into this, it is impossible to estimate Cagr atm, but this is 1-5 agents running tasks, I wrote a thread on 24/7 autonomous agents thread, where companies could use 50-250 agents to run tasks for them 24/7. It would require a different structural CPU:GPU to bring down the cost of token as well as handling the Orchestration bottleneck. GPUs would be useless and sit idle waiting for CPU due to highly CPU-intensive nature. The cost per Million tokens must come down more rapidly for this 50-250 autonomous agents to work, otherwise the token cost would be too enormous. Helios Rack is estimated to bring inference cost down to $0.0003-$0.0005/M tokens with 18 EPYC Venices along with 72 MI455x and other chips+ Components. A heavier or CPUs dense rack would bring down inference cost further. EPYC Verano(2027 gen 7 AI-optimized) is expected to drive inference costs meaningfully lower than the Venice baseline likely to the $0.00002–$0.00025 per million tokens range (or even sub-$0.00015 in highly optimized agentic/batch workloads). Verano have higher core counts than Venice, LPDDR5X SOCAMM2 memory support, more AI optimized and Next-Gen rack density & efficiency. 2. $AMD secured at least 30-40% of TSMC 2nm capacity and Memory from Samsung through 2028-2030. 2 2nm fabs are entering ramping phase toward 60-65k wafers per months and 5 dedicated 2nm fabs entering mass production/ramp in 2026. Will link sub threads below if you are interest for full detail. Apple is reported to secure 50%+ 2nm capacity for Iphone 18 and Mac chips and AMD secured at least 30-40% capacity while $NVDA $AVGO $ARM $AMZN $GOOGL and others are on 3nm. This broader aggressive ramp from TSMC to target up to 11 fabs is to address $AMD massive growth ahead. Where $ARM is facing massive CPUs supply constraints as they have to compete with other Mega Cap players on 3nm allocation. And $INTC is also facing supply constraints for data center CPUs and PC per management with lead times extrended to longer than 12 weeks. Dr. Su is aiming for higher than 50%+ Market share, and I believe it is achievable in 2026 or 2027 as AMD has the strongest CPUs offerings. Dr. Su did not want to take advantage of the shortage and she said during the Q1 earning call, AMD is prioritizing Units shipped while guiding margin to be inching 60%. If Jensen were in charge, I'm sure margin would be 70-75% in this kind of severe CPUs shortage condition. But that is not how Dr. Su operates for more than a decade. She wants most market share. So we will see it in revenue growth, but as TSMC ramps faster and faster, AMD Operating and FCF margin will massively improve vs prior decade. A significantly higher margin profile than before. 3. How I came up with $1,200 withint 12-18 months? At $1,200/ share, that would be around $2 Trillion MC. I expect FY2027 revenue to be $124-$144B where data center revenue dominates overall revenue. AI GPUs: I will stick to the lowest end so show u that I'm conservative at $18B for each GW vs $NVDA Rubin is $30B+ (most likely Helios Rack in the $20B+ due to memory price rising). We know deals with OpenAI and Meta are around 12GW and additional multi-customers at multi-GW scale were hinted and will be revealed as we get to July 22-23 2026 Advancing AI event. For now I will conservatively add a bit more to this model. (3-6GW Helios Rack Range) EPYC Venice is reported to be in $15,000-$20,000. However large customers will likely to enjoy $10-$12k discount. I expect AMD to be able to ramp 7m EPYC Venice for entire 2026 and 3-4m of EPYC Verano(higher price than Venice). If we take an average selling price of $10,000 to be on the conservative side. Take down another 30% to be even more conservative on projection. I like to be conservative. That would be ~ 7m EPYC CPUs(Venice + Verano) for FY2027 or 583,000 units per month or 15,000 additional 2nm wafers per month which is completely reasonable for current TSMC Ramp, and I may be too conservative here. EPYC Verano and MI500 series will also be on 2nm. AI GPUs: 3GW x $18B= $54B EPYC CPUs: $10k x 7m CPUs= $70B = Data center revenue alone is $124B Other segments= probably in the $20-$25B FY 2027. FY2027 revenue = $124-$149B At 7m EPYC CPUs for entire 2027, that would be more than 50% market share when we comp it to availability from supply side, not from total Demand. It is possible that TSMC could significantly ramp even more capacity in 2027, so we will see. Metric Q1 2026 FY2027 Gross Margin 55-56% 60-62% Operating Margin 25-26% 32-35% Net Income Margin ~22% 26-30% FCF Margin 25% 28-30% At $124-$149B Revenue FY 2027 Net Income would be $32-$44B EPS would be $20-$27 (GAAP) Non-GAAP would be $25-$31 At $1,200 a share or $2T valuation that would be: 13.4-16x Price to Sales (P/S) 38-48 P/E At this kind of growth of AI SuperCycle, I think it is very reasonable valuation. If we use today at $406/share or $661B MC: 2027 P/S = 4.4x-5.3x 2027 P/E = 13x-16x Is AMD today expensive or cheap to you? Above is already a very conservative where I trimmed 20-30% of doable units. Meaning, there could be upside if TSMC is able to ramp meaningfully like they are planning. Conclusion: A $1,200 per share valuation IMO for AMD in FY2027 is not expensive at all; it is, in fact, conservative when viewed against the structural explosion in agentic AI demand we have mapped out. With server CPU TAM potentially scaling into the $100–$200B+ range in just CPU:GPU 1:1 Ratio for just 2026. AMD positioned to capture 50%+ share thanks to its 2nm TSMC allocation advantage and full-stack leadership, the company could realistically deliver $124–149B in total revenue and $25–$31+ non-GAAP EPS. At those levels, $1,200 implies a 2027 P/E = 13x-16x. Entirely reasonable for a company that will have become the clear Inference Queen (and in many workloads the preferred) AI infrastructure provider, with operating margins expanding above 30% and tens of billions in high-margin rack-scale AI revenue. Dr. Lisa Su was right presciently so about the Agentic AI inflection all the way back to her early 2022–2023 commentary on the coming shift from pure training to inference and orchestration-heavy workloads. While the broader market only fully woke up to this in 2026 when she doubled AMD’s long-term server CPU TAM forecast to >$120B by 2030 (with >35% CAGR), Dr. Su and her team have consistently positioned the company at the center of the CPU renaissance. The explosive demand we are seeing today, sold-out lines, rising ASPs, and hyperscalers forward-buying entire gigawatts of Helios-class systems is exactly the outcome she forecasted years ago. Not Financial Advice! DYOR!

Mike

415,691 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

$NOW's Financial Analyst Day took place yesterday. A huge focus was on the headline $30 B+ subscription revenue target for 2030, but there is also a margin expansion story as well that management highlighted. The market fears AI inference costs will compress software gross margins. Management focused on dismantling this narrative. AI reasoning represents less than 10% of their cost to serve. The other ~90% is workflow orchestration, governance, and their 20-year CMDB context. They are maintaining 80%+ subscription gross margins while pulling $300 M in annualized agentic AI cost savings straight to their own bottom line for 2026. That self-funded internal efficiency gives them the exact cover needed to commit to 100 basis points of non-GAAP operating and free cash flow margin expansion in 2027. The debate over seat compression versus consumption is looking promising for NOW. ServiceNow has shifted to a hybrid model. Non-seat based pricing already accounts for 50% of their net new ACV. When a customer uses AI to cut a 20 person support team down to five, ServiceNow captures 6.5x more in AI agent consumption. The total spend from that customer actually grows over 5x by year five. This underlying consumption momentum is exactly why management aggressively raised their 2026 AI ACV target from $1 B to $1.5B. They expect AI to drive 30% of total ACV by 2030. They are backing this up with a new go-to-market execution strategy, guaranteeing total satisfaction for AI go-lives in under 100 days. Management is also trying to be more disciplined with capital allocation. They are tackling dilution. They hit their sub-15% stock-based compensation target early in 2025 and just established a hard target of sub-10% by 2029. They doubled their share repurchases with a $2 B accelerated share repurchase in Q1 2026 alone. This move makes them dilution net-neutral for the entirety of 2026. They still have $4.2B in authorization ready. Recent tuck-in acquisitions like Moveworks, Vza, and Armis were heavily scrutinized as buying top-line growth. Management confirmed zero revenue from these hit the last report. They bought them strictly to build out the AI Control Tower and push their TAM to an aggressive $600 B. Overall, the day provided a little more clarity and I appreciated it. Looking more interesting to me. In the clip, Gina addressed seat compression and the margin expansion story.
12:07

$NOW's Financial Analyst Day took place yesterday. A huge focus was on the headline $30 B+ subscription revenue target for 2030, but there is also a margin expansion story as well that management highlighted. The market fears AI inference costs will compress software gross margins. Management focused on dismantling this narrative. AI reasoning represents less than 10% of their cost to serve. The other ~90% is workflow orchestration, governance, and their 20-year CMDB context. They are maintaining 80%+ subscription gross margins while pulling $300 M in annualized agentic AI cost savings straight to their own bottom line for 2026. That self-funded internal efficiency gives them the exact cover needed to commit to 100 basis points of non-GAAP operating and free cash flow margin expansion in 2027. The debate over seat compression versus consumption is looking promising for NOW. ServiceNow has shifted to a hybrid model. Non-seat based pricing already accounts for 50% of their net new ACV. When a customer uses AI to cut a 20 person support team down to five, ServiceNow captures 6.5x more in AI agent consumption. The total spend from that customer actually grows over 5x by year five. This underlying consumption momentum is exactly why management aggressively raised their 2026 AI ACV target from $1 B to $1.5B. They expect AI to drive 30% of total ACV by 2030. They are backing this up with a new go-to-market execution strategy, guaranteeing total satisfaction for AI go-lives in under 100 days. Management is also trying to be more disciplined with capital allocation. They are tackling dilution. They hit their sub-15% stock-based compensation target early in 2025 and just established a hard target of sub-10% by 2029. They doubled their share repurchases with a $2 B accelerated share repurchase in Q1 2026 alone. This move makes them dilution net-neutral for the entirety of 2026. They still have $4.2B in authorization ready. Recent tuck-in acquisitions like Moveworks, Vza, and Armis were heavily scrutinized as buying top-line growth. Management confirmed zero revenue from these hit the last report. They bought them strictly to build out the AI Control Tower and push their TAM to an aggressive $600 B. Overall, the day provided a little more clarity and I appreciated it. Looking more interesting to me. In the clip, Gina addressed seat compression and the margin expansion story.

CapexAndChill

20,719 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

Elon Musk just told lenders he's paying back $17.5 BILLION in debt across X and xAI. Including $3 billion in high-yield bonds being redeemed early at 117 cents on the dollar. NOBODY knows where the money is coming from. And nobody seems to care. Let me explain why you should: Morgan Stanley has been calling existing lenders and telling them everything gets repaid in full. The X debt from the Twitter buyout. The xAI bonds from June. All of it. The bonds were structured to stay outstanding for at least 2 years. They're being called back less than a year later at a 17% premium. Bondholders are thrilled. Of course they are. They're getting paid above par on junk paper. But here's the part that should make you uncomfortable: xAI lost $1.46 billion in a single quarter last year. Burned through $7.8 billion in cash in the first 9 months of 2025. Revenue for the September quarter was $107 million. That's a company hemorrhaging roughly $1 billion a month. On a standalone basis, xAI exited 2025 at about a $500 million annualized revenue run rate. Even with optimistic projections, they might hit $2 billion in 2026. So where does $17.5 billion come from? xAI raised $20 billion in a Series E round in January. That's the most likely answer. Take the money investors gave you to build AI infrastructure and use a huge chunk of it to retire debt. But that's NOT a sign of strength. That's financial engineering. You raise $20 billion from investors who think they're funding the next frontier of artificial intelligence, then you turn around and use most of it to clean up the balance sheet before an IPO. Because that's what this is really about. SpaceX is targeting a confidential SEC filing as early as this month. IPO could come in June. Valuation targets exceed $1.75 trillion. The combined SpaceX-xAI entity currently carries about $18 billion in obligations. You can't take a $1.25 trillion company public with $18 billion in legacy debt from a money-losing AI startup and a social media platform that was acquired with leveraged buyout financing. So you nuke the debt. Clean the balance sheet. Present a simpler story to IPO investors. Smart? Absolutely. But let's be honest about what it actually is. SpaceX proper generated about $15 billion in revenue and $8 billion in profit in 2025. xAI generated roughly $250 million in six months and lost $2.5 billion doing it. At a $1.5 trillion IPO valuation, you're looking at roughly 94x trailing sales and 500x trailing earnings for the combined business. Those are not rational multiples. Those are lottery ticket multiples with better branding. And the $17.5 billion debt payoff doesn't change the underlying economics. It only changes the optics. xAI is still burning close to $1 billion a month. Grok still has a fraction of ChatGPT's market share. The revenue doesn't come close to justifying the infrastructure spend. What this reminds me of is the classic pre-IPO playbook taken to an extreme: Use private capital to dress up the financials, time the listing for maximum enthusiasm, and let public market investors hold the bag if execution falls short. The companies that need to clean house before going public are rarely the ones that reward you for buying on day one. My positioning hasn't changed. The AI infrastructure spending boom is real. But the returns aren't materializing for the companies actually deploying the technology. That gap between spending and results is where fortunes get destroyed. Stay skeptical. Stay disciplined. And remember: If the source of $17.5 billion in repayment capital is a mystery, it's a WARNING.
0:48

Elon Musk just told lenders he's paying back $17.5 BILLION in debt across X and xAI. Including $3 billion in high-yield bonds being redeemed early at 117 cents on the dollar. NOBODY knows where the money is coming from. And nobody seems to care. Let me explain why you should: Morgan Stanley has been calling existing lenders and telling them everything gets repaid in full. The X debt from the Twitter buyout. The xAI bonds from June. All of it. The bonds were structured to stay outstanding for at least 2 years. They're being called back less than a year later at a 17% premium. Bondholders are thrilled. Of course they are. They're getting paid above par on junk paper. But here's the part that should make you uncomfortable: xAI lost $1.46 billion in a single quarter last year. Burned through $7.8 billion in cash in the first 9 months of 2025. Revenue for the September quarter was $107 million. That's a company hemorrhaging roughly $1 billion a month. On a standalone basis, xAI exited 2025 at about a $500 million annualized revenue run rate. Even with optimistic projections, they might hit $2 billion in 2026. So where does $17.5 billion come from? xAI raised $20 billion in a Series E round in January. That's the most likely answer. Take the money investors gave you to build AI infrastructure and use a huge chunk of it to retire debt. But that's NOT a sign of strength. That's financial engineering. You raise $20 billion from investors who think they're funding the next frontier of artificial intelligence, then you turn around and use most of it to clean up the balance sheet before an IPO. Because that's what this is really about. SpaceX is targeting a confidential SEC filing as early as this month. IPO could come in June. Valuation targets exceed $1.75 trillion. The combined SpaceX-xAI entity currently carries about $18 billion in obligations. You can't take a $1.25 trillion company public with $18 billion in legacy debt from a money-losing AI startup and a social media platform that was acquired with leveraged buyout financing. So you nuke the debt. Clean the balance sheet. Present a simpler story to IPO investors. Smart? Absolutely. But let's be honest about what it actually is. SpaceX proper generated about $15 billion in revenue and $8 billion in profit in 2025. xAI generated roughly $250 million in six months and lost $2.5 billion doing it. At a $1.5 trillion IPO valuation, you're looking at roughly 94x trailing sales and 500x trailing earnings for the combined business. Those are not rational multiples. Those are lottery ticket multiples with better branding. And the $17.5 billion debt payoff doesn't change the underlying economics. It only changes the optics. xAI is still burning close to $1 billion a month. Grok still has a fraction of ChatGPT's market share. The revenue doesn't come close to justifying the infrastructure spend. What this reminds me of is the classic pre-IPO playbook taken to an extreme: Use private capital to dress up the financials, time the listing for maximum enthusiasm, and let public market investors hold the bag if execution falls short. The companies that need to clean house before going public are rarely the ones that reward you for buying on day one. My positioning hasn't changed. The AI infrastructure spending boom is real. But the returns aren't materializing for the companies actually deploying the technology. That gap between spending and results is where fortunes get destroyed. Stay skeptical. Stay disciplined. And remember: If the source of $17.5 billion in repayment capital is a mystery, it's a WARNING.

George Noble

471,839 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад

Nebius will be the first trillion dollar neocloud hyperscaler. Most neoclouds are stuck in a single business model, renting bare GPU capacity to whoever will pay for it. Nebius is deliberately building across four layers instead, bare metal, managed infrastructure, inference, and eventually agentic tooling and each layer up the stack dramatically expands who can actually buy from them. Bare metal has maybe a dozen viable customers worldwide, since only the biggest players can even use raw infrastructure at that scale. Managed infrastructure opens that up to hundreds of buyers, while inference reaches thousands of potential customers. Agentic services are still early, but they could eventually serve tens of thousands of developers building on top of the platform. That's the real engine behind a trillion dollar outcome, since a single layer rental business caps out far lower than a company selling into an expanding pyramid of customers at every altitude. There's also a strategic decision buried in how Nebius handles its biggest clients. Serving giants like Meta and Microsoft is a double edged sword, since those companies bring their own full software stack and only need physical infrastructure underneath it, which leaves very thin margin for Nebius to capture on top. Roman was explicit that the company's long term strategy is to avoid over relying on any single hyperscaler and instead build a diversified customer portfolio spanning every layer of the stack, so no single client can dictate terms or growth. He also pushed back on the idea that this business is commodity, arguing that keeping up with what a Meta or Microsoft actually demands from infrastructure at true hyperscale is genuinely difficult, which is exactly why most emerging neoclouds can't even compete for that tier of client. The numbers from this week back up the strategy because revenue came in at 582 million dollars, up 454% year over year, while annualized recurring revenue hit 3.0 billion dollars, up 58% quarter over quarter. Four separate customer contracts signed during the quarter were each worth more than 1 billion dollars in total contract value. Pricing power tells the same story from a different angle. Nebius's newest capacity auction cleared 15% above any price it had ever charged before, and short notice hardware is now going for 40 to 50 million dollars per megawatt, roughly four to five times the 9.8 million dollar per megawatt baseline from earlier deals. That kind of pricing trajectory, paired with a push into higher margin inference and agentic layers, builds a revenue mix that scales well past what a pure infrastructure landlord could ever reach. There are a few other pieces that make Nebius structurally different from the rest of the pack because it owns its full vertical stack, from data center design to server racks to the software layer running on top of all of it. It also has early access to Nvidia's next-generation Vera Rubin platform, following Nvidia's 9.3% stake in the company, and it holds side businesses in autonomous driving through Avride and data infrastructure through ClickHouse and Toloka. Nebius is building far more than a GPU rental business, and I think the market is still underestimating how big that full-stack platform can become. Bullish on Nebius becoming the first trillion-dollar neocloud hyperscaler, make sure to follow Melvin for more AI infrastructure insights, and if you want to see exactly what I'm buying as an analyst at Milk Road Pro, you can check out the link for more.
3:07

Nebius will be the first trillion dollar neocloud hyperscaler. Most neoclouds are stuck in a single business model, renting bare GPU capacity to whoever will pay for it. Nebius is deliberately building across four layers instead, bare metal, managed infrastructure, inference, and eventually agentic tooling and each layer up the stack dramatically expands who can actually buy from them. Bare metal has maybe a dozen viable customers worldwide, since only the biggest players can even use raw infrastructure at that scale. Managed infrastructure opens that up to hundreds of buyers, while inference reaches thousands of potential customers. Agentic services are still early, but they could eventually serve tens of thousands of developers building on top of the platform. That's the real engine behind a trillion dollar outcome, since a single layer rental business caps out far lower than a company selling into an expanding pyramid of customers at every altitude. There's also a strategic decision buried in how Nebius handles its biggest clients. Serving giants like Meta and Microsoft is a double edged sword, since those companies bring their own full software stack and only need physical infrastructure underneath it, which leaves very thin margin for Nebius to capture on top. Roman was explicit that the company's long term strategy is to avoid over relying on any single hyperscaler and instead build a diversified customer portfolio spanning every layer of the stack, so no single client can dictate terms or growth. He also pushed back on the idea that this business is commodity, arguing that keeping up with what a Meta or Microsoft actually demands from infrastructure at true hyperscale is genuinely difficult, which is exactly why most emerging neoclouds can't even compete for that tier of client. The numbers from this week back up the strategy because revenue came in at 582 million dollars, up 454% year over year, while annualized recurring revenue hit 3.0 billion dollars, up 58% quarter over quarter. Four separate customer contracts signed during the quarter were each worth more than 1 billion dollars in total contract value. Pricing power tells the same story from a different angle. Nebius's newest capacity auction cleared 15% above any price it had ever charged before, and short notice hardware is now going for 40 to 50 million dollars per megawatt, roughly four to five times the 9.8 million dollar per megawatt baseline from earlier deals. That kind of pricing trajectory, paired with a push into higher margin inference and agentic layers, builds a revenue mix that scales well past what a pure infrastructure landlord could ever reach. There are a few other pieces that make Nebius structurally different from the rest of the pack because it owns its full vertical stack, from data center design to server racks to the software layer running on top of all of it. It also has early access to Nvidia's next-generation Vera Rubin platform, following Nvidia's 9.3% stake in the company, and it holds side businesses in autonomous driving through Avride and data infrastructure through ClickHouse and Toloka. Nebius is building far more than a GPU rental business, and I think the market is still underestimating how big that full-stack platform can become. Bullish on Nebius becoming the first trillion-dollar neocloud hyperscaler, make sure to follow Melvin for more AI infrastructure insights, and if you want to see exactly what I'm buying as an analyst at Milk Road Pro, you can check out the link for more.

Melvin

29,000 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

$SIVE Sivers Semiconductors: The Photonics Inflection In the semiconductor world, real alpha is found where physics hits a wall. Today, that wall isn’t GPU compute power - it’s interconnect bandwidth. As we transition to 1.6T networking, copper is dying, and light is taking over. Sivers Semiconductors ($SIVE) is no longer just a "Swedish tech hope." It has officially transitioned from an engineering research house to a high-volume product company. 1⃣ The 1.6T AI Bottleneck: Indium Phosphide (InP) AI clusters are only as fast as the links between them. Silicon Photonics (SiPh) is the solution, but silicon cannot emit light efficiently. It needs an external "engine." ➡️The Moat: Sivers is one of the few global players capable of mass-producing InP CW-WDM laser arrays. These are the "spark plugs" for the next generation of AI transceivers. ➡️Proof of Concept: Partnership with $POET is hitting a critical milestone. Prototype External Light Source (ELS) modules for 1.6T architectures are sampling in H1 2026. ➡️The Pivot to "Standard Products": CEO Vikram Vathulya recently confirmed a strategic shift. Sivers is moving away from low-margin custom engineering toward Standard Products. This will drastically shorten "time-to-revenue" and scale margins by serving multiple customers with the same high-spec chips. 2⃣ Hard Evidence: The 2026 Contract Ramp-up Investors have long criticized Sivers for a "paper pipeline." That changed this month (March 2026): ➡️LiDAR Breakthrough: A strategic LiDAR customer (winning in both Automotive and Industrial) is ramping up in Q4 2026. Cumulative revenue potential: $53M to $138M. ➡️SATCOM & IRIS² Momentum: The Wireless division grew 33% in 2025 (constant FX). Crucially, three terminal vendors for Europe's IRIS² satellite constellation have moved to the RFP stage and are currently building prototypes using Sivers technology. ➡️US Chips Act: Sivers is using Chips Act funding not just for cash, but to accelerate the integration of their tech into US Defense "Electronic Warfare" (EW) programs. 3⃣ Financial De-Risking & The "Uplisting" Catalyst The biggest drag on $SIVE has been its balance sheet. That drag is being cut: ➡️Debt Refinancing (Feb 2026): Secured a $17M facility from Bootstrap Europe, consolidating all debt and providing a clear runway to the Q4 2026 ramp-up. ➡️The 2027 Line in the Sand: Management has set a firm target to reach full break-even/positive cash flow by the end of 2027. ➡️The US Nasdaq Spin-off: With 80% of Photonics revenue coming from the US, the plan to spin off Sivers Photonics into a US-listed entity remains the primary "valuation unlock" to capture US-style multiples (think Lumentum or Coherent). 4⃣ 2026 Guidance: The Roadmap to Pavement ➡️Opportunity Pipeline: Stands at $453M (up 64% YoY). ➡️Profitability Pivot: Q4 2025 delivered a positive Adjusted EBITDA of $1.14M. Expect this to stabilize as "Foundry Customers" (SME base business) provide a recurring revenue floor while waiting for the "Big Elephants" (AI & Auto) to join. ➡️OFC Los Angeles (March 15-19, 2026): Currently underway. Industry leaders are vetting Sivers' laser arrays. Success here is the catalyst for large-scale datacenter deployment. 👇Final Verdict Sivers is no longer a "story" stock; it is a "delivery" stock. As 1.6T networking becomes the standard for AI datacenters, the demand for Indium Phosphide laser sources is set to explode. Sivers is one of the very few companies sitting on the right IP at exactly the right time. What’s your take on the Silicon Photonics race? Are you betting on the massive, vertically integrated giants like Broadcom, or do you see the "pick-and-shovel" specialists like $SIVE capturing the real alpha in the 1.6T transition? Drop a comment below with your thoughts or ask me anything. I'm here for you. #Investing #Semiconductors #AIInfrastructure #StockPicking #Sivers #Photonics
16:28

$SIVE Sivers Semiconductors: The Photonics Inflection In the semiconductor world, real alpha is found where physics hits a wall. Today, that wall isn’t GPU compute power - it’s interconnect bandwidth. As we transition to 1.6T networking, copper is dying, and light is taking over. Sivers Semiconductors ($SIVE) is no longer just a "Swedish tech hope." It has officially transitioned from an engineering research house to a high-volume product company. 1⃣ The 1.6T AI Bottleneck: Indium Phosphide (InP) AI clusters are only as fast as the links between them. Silicon Photonics (SiPh) is the solution, but silicon cannot emit light efficiently. It needs an external "engine." ➡️The Moat: Sivers is one of the few global players capable of mass-producing InP CW-WDM laser arrays. These are the "spark plugs" for the next generation of AI transceivers. ➡️Proof of Concept: Partnership with $POET is hitting a critical milestone. Prototype External Light Source (ELS) modules for 1.6T architectures are sampling in H1 2026. ➡️The Pivot to "Standard Products": CEO Vikram Vathulya recently confirmed a strategic shift. Sivers is moving away from low-margin custom engineering toward Standard Products. This will drastically shorten "time-to-revenue" and scale margins by serving multiple customers with the same high-spec chips. 2⃣ Hard Evidence: The 2026 Contract Ramp-up Investors have long criticized Sivers for a "paper pipeline." That changed this month (March 2026): ➡️LiDAR Breakthrough: A strategic LiDAR customer (winning in both Automotive and Industrial) is ramping up in Q4 2026. Cumulative revenue potential: $53M to $138M. ➡️SATCOM & IRIS² Momentum: The Wireless division grew 33% in 2025 (constant FX). Crucially, three terminal vendors for Europe's IRIS² satellite constellation have moved to the RFP stage and are currently building prototypes using Sivers technology. ➡️US Chips Act: Sivers is using Chips Act funding not just for cash, but to accelerate the integration of their tech into US Defense "Electronic Warfare" (EW) programs. 3⃣ Financial De-Risking & The "Uplisting" Catalyst The biggest drag on $SIVE has been its balance sheet. That drag is being cut: ➡️Debt Refinancing (Feb 2026): Secured a $17M facility from Bootstrap Europe, consolidating all debt and providing a clear runway to the Q4 2026 ramp-up. ➡️The 2027 Line in the Sand: Management has set a firm target to reach full break-even/positive cash flow by the end of 2027. ➡️The US Nasdaq Spin-off: With 80% of Photonics revenue coming from the US, the plan to spin off Sivers Photonics into a US-listed entity remains the primary "valuation unlock" to capture US-style multiples (think Lumentum or Coherent). 4⃣ 2026 Guidance: The Roadmap to Pavement ➡️Opportunity Pipeline: Stands at $453M (up 64% YoY). ➡️Profitability Pivot: Q4 2025 delivered a positive Adjusted EBITDA of $1.14M. Expect this to stabilize as "Foundry Customers" (SME base business) provide a recurring revenue floor while waiting for the "Big Elephants" (AI & Auto) to join. ➡️OFC Los Angeles (March 15-19, 2026): Currently underway. Industry leaders are vetting Sivers' laser arrays. Success here is the catalyst for large-scale datacenter deployment. 👇Final Verdict Sivers is no longer a "story" stock; it is a "delivery" stock. As 1.6T networking becomes the standard for AI datacenters, the demand for Indium Phosphide laser sources is set to explode. Sivers is one of the very few companies sitting on the right IP at exactly the right time. What’s your take on the Silicon Photonics race? Are you betting on the massive, vertically integrated giants like Broadcom, or do you see the "pick-and-shovel" specialists like $SIVE capturing the real alpha in the 1.6T transition? Drop a comment below with your thoughts or ask me anything. I'm here for you. #Investing #Semiconductors #AIInfrastructure #StockPicking #Sivers #Photonics

Finn Stockinger

351,610 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад

$ASTS | Scott Wisniewski at JP Morgan conference, May 18, 2026 Transcript - part 1 Good afternoon, everyone. I'm Sebastiano Petty, and I cover the telecom, cable, and satellite space here at J.P. Morgan. I'd like to welcome Scott Wisniewski, President and Chief Strategy Offer of ASTS Space Mobile. Scott, thanks for joining us. Thank you for having me. You're good. You're live. Can you hear me? All right. Thank you for having me. Great. So, Scott, just to start, let's zoom out. As you sit here in mid-2026, with Bluebirds launching, commercial service activation approaching, and the government pipeline accelerating, where are you spending most of your time as President and Chief Strategy Officer? And more broadly, what are your two to three highest priority objectives over the next 18 months as you transition from what has primarily been an R&D and manufacturing story into a scaled revenue-generating operating company? Thank you. And for those who don't know us that well, we were founded about a decade ago around the direct-to-device opportunity. That's what we do. That's our entire strategy. It's from space, of course, and we build our own satellites, and we'll be operating them and selling capacity on them. But at its core, we are a direct-to-device pure play. And over the years, I met our founder in January 2019, but over the years, telling our equity story, people always asked three questions. Does it work? Can you fund it? And how big will the market be, or will there be a market? And that's our traditional private company questions that we still got even as a public company for a while, and we really retired those risks in 2023, 2024, and 2025. And so this year, yeah, you're exactly right. Traditional growth stuff, scaling stuff is where we are. And for us, if I were to say two simple things, one is network deployment. The vast majority of the folks in the company are focused on exactly that, network deployment now for revenue in 2026 and 2027 and beyond. And then the second one is, I think, building the market out in the right way. This is a brand new service. It's a service that is at the very heart of connectivity. Remember, we all know the trends in connectivity. When I started my career in connectivity, there was a question, bubble, what inning are we in? When is the expansion going to end? And then, of course, AI comes along, and there's always something every couple of years. So for us, we're at the heart of connectivity. We can do coverage better than any terrestrial footprint by its very nature. And making connectivity work for our partners, the mobile network operators, and ultimately for the consumer mass market among other markets, is our focus. So building out that market is our second priority. Great. And let's address the news from last week. AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile announced a proposed joint venture to extend mobile connectivity using satellite-based D2D technologies. You guys put out a statement commending the announcement. Unpack this for us. What does this mean for ASTS in practice? Does it change your commercial positioning with the carriers? Does it accelerate or maybe even complicate your path to service? So we really value the carrier relationship. We've organized the business, the technology, the go-to-market strategy. Everything we do, really, is about making connectivity better for the mobile network operators. And so you see that in where we've prioritized the company over the years. You see that in how we've built out the tech. And even the network stack is organized with the RAN on the ground, so the operators control it. So that's really been our focus. We share their spectrum, although we also have our own spectrum now. And that's always been the approach. Part1, 1 (of 2)
6:28

$ASTS | Scott Wisniewski at JP Morgan conference, May 18, 2026 Transcript - part 1 Good afternoon, everyone. I'm Sebastiano Petty, and I cover the telecom, cable, and satellite space here at J.P. Morgan. I'd like to welcome Scott Wisniewski, President and Chief Strategy Offer of ASTS Space Mobile. Scott, thanks for joining us. Thank you for having me. You're good. You're live. Can you hear me? All right. Thank you for having me. Great. So, Scott, just to start, let's zoom out. As you sit here in mid-2026, with Bluebirds launching, commercial service activation approaching, and the government pipeline accelerating, where are you spending most of your time as President and Chief Strategy Officer? And more broadly, what are your two to three highest priority objectives over the next 18 months as you transition from what has primarily been an R&D and manufacturing story into a scaled revenue-generating operating company? Thank you. And for those who don't know us that well, we were founded about a decade ago around the direct-to-device opportunity. That's what we do. That's our entire strategy. It's from space, of course, and we build our own satellites, and we'll be operating them and selling capacity on them. But at its core, we are a direct-to-device pure play. And over the years, I met our founder in January 2019, but over the years, telling our equity story, people always asked three questions. Does it work? Can you fund it? And how big will the market be, or will there be a market? And that's our traditional private company questions that we still got even as a public company for a while, and we really retired those risks in 2023, 2024, and 2025. And so this year, yeah, you're exactly right. Traditional growth stuff, scaling stuff is where we are. And for us, if I were to say two simple things, one is network deployment. The vast majority of the folks in the company are focused on exactly that, network deployment now for revenue in 2026 and 2027 and beyond. And then the second one is, I think, building the market out in the right way. This is a brand new service. It's a service that is at the very heart of connectivity. Remember, we all know the trends in connectivity. When I started my career in connectivity, there was a question, bubble, what inning are we in? When is the expansion going to end? And then, of course, AI comes along, and there's always something every couple of years. So for us, we're at the heart of connectivity. We can do coverage better than any terrestrial footprint by its very nature. And making connectivity work for our partners, the mobile network operators, and ultimately for the consumer mass market among other markets, is our focus. So building out that market is our second priority. Great. And let's address the news from last week. AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile announced a proposed joint venture to extend mobile connectivity using satellite-based D2D technologies. You guys put out a statement commending the announcement. Unpack this for us. What does this mean for ASTS in practice? Does it change your commercial positioning with the carriers? Does it accelerate or maybe even complicate your path to service? So we really value the carrier relationship. We've organized the business, the technology, the go-to-market strategy. Everything we do, really, is about making connectivity better for the mobile network operators. And so you see that in where we've prioritized the company over the years. You see that in how we've built out the tech. And even the network stack is organized with the RAN on the ground, so the operators control it. So that's really been our focus. We share their spectrum, although we also have our own spectrum now. And that's always been the approach. Part1, 1 (of 2)

Peter LINDM🅰️RK

29,453 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад