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Response to anonymous “wise guys” who say Private Credit and Private Equity is just smarter than you. High Yield Harry Restructuring__ Anytime, any place, Vegas on Monday?

Nick Nemeth (Mispriced Assets)

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25,859 views • 5 months ago •via X (Twitter)

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Soros Fund Management CIO Dawn Fitzpatrick on why there is a massive culling coming for managers in private equity and credit From her conversation at Bloomberg Invest "Investors are overallocated to private assets. Their private equity is not cash flowing, and now they are going to have a similar issue in private credit. I think it is going to be a painful 18 to 24 months"

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So insurance companies & pension funds have invested in private equity & credit companies through the Cayman Islands, and they're currently 35x levered on their obligations... Did I hear that correctly? When private credit blows up this is going to be worse than 2008.

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79,693 views • 1 month ago

If you are going to read one thing today, make it this one "What the fuck is going on private credit?" Private credit is getting sassy People are lining up to get their money back Big changes came out around lev-fin after the GFC The new guidelines meant banks could not lend to LBO above 6.0x Private credit stepped in to fill the gap Pre-GFC, deals were small, and docs were tight Private credit has outgrown levered loans Why? Fees Private credits make ~6-7x fees vs levered loans The race is off, if you don't own a private credit business, you own it How do you deploy so much capital? Focus on large deals Which sectors? Software, business service = AI exposed sectors Those billions deals look like levered loans, much worse docs Many new deals were done lending against revenue, not against cash flow. Private credit guys were so confident because multiples kept expanding Then ChatGPT shows up AI Exposed companies are down 50% And to make things worse, the covid LBOs are maturing now Private credit is saying LTM figures are fine, but public credit recoveries are down, especially in tech Sponsors have misaligned interests, if they think the company will be disrupted, they pay themselves dividends People now want to get out

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The cost just to visit Chuck E. Cheese is now extremely unaffordable For this small personal pizza and a few chicken wings, the cost is over $34…. Chuck E. Cheese was bought by a private equity firm Just since 2019, prices have increased over 60% on large pizzas and up 50% on most menu items In 2014, Apollo Global Management, a major private equity firm, acquired CEC Entertainment which is Chuck E. Cheese’s parent company Since being purchased by a private equity firm prices have gone up 100%+ across menus items Take this Personal pizza and wings combo: This is now routinely $30–$40+. This used to be much closer to $15 range in the mid-2010s Private equity firms never make anything better, it just gets way worse quality and more expensive

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Wall Street Apes

90,577 views • 2 months ago

they've been publicly humiliating and bullying sunoo for a LONG time, this is just some of the things they say on camera so just imagine what they say in private. How you guys still stan enhypen and claim they love all the members is beyond me

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3,072,143 views • 1 year ago

Private credit just hit the brakes, and the numbers are not subtle. New US direct lending issuance fell from about $74.6 billion in the first quarter to about $44.8 billion in the three months ending May, according to PitchBook. That is a massive slowdown in a single quarter. Private equity-backed borrowing dropped to about $28.5 billion. Lending tied to leveraged buyouts fell to about $15.2 billion. This is the private credit engine losing speed at the exact moment it needs confidence. And the reasons are not a mystery. Fundraising is still well below its peak. Redemption requests are elevated and still climbing. Investors are scrutinizing loan quality. And borrowers are stuck in a flat, gone-bad economy. For years private credit took market share because it was fast and certain. It could finance deals when the banks and the syndicated markets could not, because everyone assumed the economy would be good forever. That assumption is breaking. Now these funds are preserving liquidity and stretching to get deals done. So they have far less appetite to finance private equity at aggressive valuations. And that is where private equity gets pulled in. It ran on the leverage that private credit provided, and that engine is reversing. Here is the standoff. Private equity firms will not sell assets at lower prices, because that means admitting yesterday's marks were too high. Buyers will not pay peak multiples in a higher-rate, slower-growth world. Lenders will not underwrite the old assumptions. Investors do not want more money locked up. So the whole machine slows, grinds to a halt, and starts to reverse. One guy called it constipation.

Private credit just hit the brakes, and the numbers are not subtle. New US direct lending issuance fell from about $74.6 billion in the first quarter to about $44.8 billion in the three months ending May, according to PitchBook. That is a massive slowdown in a single quarter. Private equity-backed borrowing dropped to about $28.5 billion. Lending tied to leveraged buyouts fell to about $15.2 billion. This is the private credit engine losing speed at the exact moment it needs confidence. And the reasons are not a mystery. Fundraising is still well below its peak. Redemption requests are elevated and still climbing. Investors are scrutinizing loan quality. And borrowers are stuck in a flat, gone-bad economy. For years private credit took market share because it was fast and certain. It could finance deals when the banks and the syndicated markets could not, because everyone assumed the economy would be good forever. That assumption is breaking. Now these funds are preserving liquidity and stretching to get deals done. So they have far less appetite to finance private equity at aggressive valuations. And that is where private equity gets pulled in. It ran on the leverage that private credit provided, and that engine is reversing. Here is the standoff. Private equity firms will not sell assets at lower prices, because that means admitting yesterday's marks were too high. Buyers will not pay peak multiples in a higher-rate, slower-growth world. Lenders will not underwrite the old assumptions. Investors do not want more money locked up. So the whole machine slows, grinds to a halt, and starts to reverse. One guy called it constipation.

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My 1st non-Southwest Airlines domestic flight in almost 7 years thanks to the Private Equity monsters that are destroying the brand. I’m so sick of Private Equity destroying everything: but we get to decide if we take our business away! Four other people in line with me were on their first non-Southwest flight in years & one had just canceled her Southwest credit card and opened an United Airlines card. Activist investment group, Elliott management has infiltrated @Southwest Airlines and the greed that they are exhibiting is going to cost Southwest everything! We have the power to fight back against private equity when we can and we should!

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The popular Tapatio Hot Sauce brand has been purchased by a private equity firm The family had never write the recipe down, it was always mixed in private by only people who knew it by memory The recipe had to be written down and given to the private equity firm so they could expand distribution out of California The Saavedra family had run the company for over 50 years out of Los Angeles The new private equity firm owned say there is a stronger demand for hotter hot sauces throughout America because of drugs like Ozempic GLP-1 weight-loss drugs apparently is caused people to crave more spice and taste in their meals “As users of Ozempic and other weight loss drugs demand more flavor than they used to”

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