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RF-DETR Keypoints also introduces per-joint uncertainty zones Small dot = high confidence, big blob = higher uncertainty

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mirrash.eth ๐Ÿฆ‡๐Ÿ”Š

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67,659 views โ€ข 1 month ago โ€ขvia X (Twitter)

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RF-DETR keypoints reaches 71.8 AP on COCO at 9.8ms on an NVIDIA T4. we wrote up how the model gets there, including the keypoint queries, uncertainty head, loss setup and multi-resolution inference. blog:
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RF-DETR keypoints reaches 71.8 AP on COCO at 9.8ms on an NVIDIA T4. we wrote up how the model gets there, including the keypoint queries, uncertainty head, loss setup and multi-resolution inference. blog:

SkalskiP

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CYCLONE VAIANU โš ๏ธ๐ŸŒ€๐Ÿšจ Cyclone Vaianu is likely to move across the North Island on Sunday, 12 April. If it does, it will bring damaging, potentially life-threatening winds. However, uncertainty remains in the cyclone's exact track, so the locations of the most severe winds are not yet certain. As confidence in the track increases, parts of this Watch will be upgraded to Orange or possibly Red Warnings. ๐ŸŸ ๐Ÿ”ด Vaianu will also bring heavy rain, with Heavy Rain Watches and/or Warnings likely to be issued on Thursday for some areas. High chance of upgrading to a Warning. ๐Ÿ“ข More information: National Emergency Management Agency
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CYCLONE VAIANU โš ๏ธ๐ŸŒ€๐Ÿšจ Cyclone Vaianu is likely to move across the North Island on Sunday, 12 April. If it does, it will bring damaging, potentially life-threatening winds. However, uncertainty remains in the cyclone's exact track, so the locations of the most severe winds are not yet certain. As confidence in the track increases, parts of this Watch will be upgraded to Orange or possibly Red Warnings. ๐ŸŸ ๐Ÿ”ด Vaianu will also bring heavy rain, with Heavy Rain Watches and/or Warnings likely to be issued on Thursday for some areas. High chance of upgrading to a Warning. ๐Ÿ“ข More information: National Emergency Management Agency

MetService NZ

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SpaceX has introduced a new website for its next-generation Starlink V3 satellites, along with new information about the satellite. โ€ข 1 Tbps downlink capacity (~10ร— higher than Starlink V2). โ€ข 160 Gbps uplink capacity (~22ร— higher than Starlink V2). โ€ข 2,048 downlink beams + 2,048 uplink beams (vs. 192 downlink/144 uplink beams on V2). โ€ข Upgraded phased array antennas enable the increased user capacity and beam count. โ€ข New SpaceX-designed beamformer chips power the phased arrays. โ€ข Modem chips handle ~64ร— more throughput per chip, allowing more efficient simultaneous service and real-time beam allocation based on demand. โ€ข Each satellite includes 6 high-capacity 400 Gbps laser links, enabling a redundant petabit-scale laser mesh network for global routing. โ€ข Each satellite also has 4 quad-band RF backhaul antennas operating across Ka, E, V, and W bands. โ€ข RF backhaul capacity increases to 1.2 Tbps (>8ร— Starlink V2). โ€ข Backhaul uplink supports 60 GHz of spectrum across frequencies and polarizations (4.3ร— more than V2). โ€ข New solar arrays generate ~2ร— the power of the V2 satellite arrays. โ€ข Solar arrays are manufactured using a continuous roll of solar blanket, cut into 19-meter sections, with 4 sections stitched together per array. โ€ข Solar arrays are optimized to reduce atmospheric drag in low Earth orbit. โ€ข A Starship launch carrying V3 satellites will deploy ~20ร— more network capacity than a Falcon 9 launch carrying V2 satellites. โ€ข V3 technology will support future Starlink Mobile Gen 2 satellites, delivering terrestrial-like LTE speeds directly to unmodified smartphones. Website:
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SpaceX has introduced a new website for its next-generation Starlink V3 satellites, along with new information about the satellite. โ€ข 1 Tbps downlink capacity (~10ร— higher than Starlink V2). โ€ข 160 Gbps uplink capacity (~22ร— higher than Starlink V2). โ€ข 2,048 downlink beams + 2,048 uplink beams (vs. 192 downlink/144 uplink beams on V2). โ€ข Upgraded phased array antennas enable the increased user capacity and beam count. โ€ข New SpaceX-designed beamformer chips power the phased arrays. โ€ข Modem chips handle ~64ร— more throughput per chip, allowing more efficient simultaneous service and real-time beam allocation based on demand. โ€ข Each satellite includes 6 high-capacity 400 Gbps laser links, enabling a redundant petabit-scale laser mesh network for global routing. โ€ข Each satellite also has 4 quad-band RF backhaul antennas operating across Ka, E, V, and W bands. โ€ข RF backhaul capacity increases to 1.2 Tbps (>8ร— Starlink V2). โ€ข Backhaul uplink supports 60 GHz of spectrum across frequencies and polarizations (4.3ร— more than V2). โ€ข New solar arrays generate ~2ร— the power of the V2 satellite arrays. โ€ข Solar arrays are manufactured using a continuous roll of solar blanket, cut into 19-meter sections, with 4 sections stitched together per array. โ€ข Solar arrays are optimized to reduce atmospheric drag in low Earth orbit. โ€ข A Starship launch carrying V3 satellites will deploy ~20ร— more network capacity than a Falcon 9 launch carrying V2 satellites. โ€ข V3 technology will support future Starlink Mobile Gen 2 satellites, delivering terrestrial-like LTE speeds directly to unmodified smartphones. Website:

Sawyer Merritt

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Despite geopolitical tensions and recent price drops, crypto investment products are seeing massive inflows. In the week of June 13, 2025, a total of $1.24 billion flowed into these products, marking the 10th consecutive week of gains. Bitcoin led the charge with $1.1 billion, followed by Ethereum at $123.8 million. Even with price dips due to global tensions, investor confidence remains strong, with Bitcoin trading around $101,000 and Ethereum dipping below $2,200. The inflows continue to support the bullish sentiment in the market. Interestingly, short-Bitcoin products saw a small outflow of $1.4 million, indicating that bearish bets on Bitcoin are fading. Altcoins also saw positive movement with Solana (SOL) and XRP posting inflows of $2.78 million and $2.69 million, respectively. Spot ETFs are a key player, with BlackRockโ€™s iShares ETFs bringing in a substantial $1.28 billion, marking a dominant position in the market. The U.S. led the way with $1.25 billion in inflows, followed by Canada and Germany with smaller contributions. However, regions like Hong Kong and Switzerland experienced slight outflows. This shows that despite the broader market uncertainty, investors are seizing the opportunity and continuing to accumulate crypto. also still yapping @yapyo_arb $yapyo
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Despite geopolitical tensions and recent price drops, crypto investment products are seeing massive inflows. In the week of June 13, 2025, a total of $1.24 billion flowed into these products, marking the 10th consecutive week of gains. Bitcoin led the charge with $1.1 billion, followed by Ethereum at $123.8 million. Even with price dips due to global tensions, investor confidence remains strong, with Bitcoin trading around $101,000 and Ethereum dipping below $2,200. The inflows continue to support the bullish sentiment in the market. Interestingly, short-Bitcoin products saw a small outflow of $1.4 million, indicating that bearish bets on Bitcoin are fading. Altcoins also saw positive movement with Solana (SOL) and XRP posting inflows of $2.78 million and $2.69 million, respectively. Spot ETFs are a key player, with BlackRockโ€™s iShares ETFs bringing in a substantial $1.28 billion, marking a dominant position in the market. The U.S. led the way with $1.25 billion in inflows, followed by Canada and Germany with smaller contributions. However, regions like Hong Kong and Switzerland experienced slight outflows. This shows that despite the broader market uncertainty, investors are seizing the opportunity and continuing to accumulate crypto. also still yapping @yapyo_arb $yapyo

ALTF4

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Most traders think psychology is just โ€œcontrol your emotions.โ€ Itโ€™s deeper than that. Trading psychology is the quality of decisions you make under uncertainty. Can you stay patient when nothing is clear? Can you execute when your setup appears without fear? Can you take a loss without revenge trading? Can you follow your plan when greed tells you to overstay? That is psychology. A bad mindset doesnโ€™t only show in emotions. It shows in: โ€ข Overtrading โ€ข Moving stop loss โ€ข Entering early โ€ข Ignoring confirmations โ€ข Risking too much โ€ข Chasing after losses โ€ข Closing winners too soon How to improve your psychology: โ–ซ๏ธManage your risk When the money at stake is too high for your mind, emotions take over. Risk appropriately and think clearer. โ–ซ๏ธTrade only clear setups Random entries create stress. Clean setups build confidence. โ–ซ๏ธAccept losses before entering Every trade can lose. Once you accept that, losses hurt less and decisions improve. Journal your behavior โ–ซ๏ธDonโ€™t only record profits. Record mistakes, emotions, impatience, greed, fear. Patterns will expose themselves. Detach from daily results โ–ซ๏ธOne day means nothing. Consistency is built over many trades, not one session. Build discipline off the chart If you canโ€™t control small habits in life, it becomes harder to control yourself in the market. The market is not only testing your strategy. It is testing your character every single day. GM๐Ÿ’œ
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Most traders think psychology is just โ€œcontrol your emotions.โ€ Itโ€™s deeper than that. Trading psychology is the quality of decisions you make under uncertainty. Can you stay patient when nothing is clear? Can you execute when your setup appears without fear? Can you take a loss without revenge trading? Can you follow your plan when greed tells you to overstay? That is psychology. A bad mindset doesnโ€™t only show in emotions. It shows in: โ€ข Overtrading โ€ข Moving stop loss โ€ข Entering early โ€ข Ignoring confirmations โ€ข Risking too much โ€ข Chasing after losses โ€ข Closing winners too soon How to improve your psychology: โ–ซ๏ธManage your risk When the money at stake is too high for your mind, emotions take over. Risk appropriately and think clearer. โ–ซ๏ธTrade only clear setups Random entries create stress. Clean setups build confidence. โ–ซ๏ธAccept losses before entering Every trade can lose. Once you accept that, losses hurt less and decisions improve. Journal your behavior โ–ซ๏ธDonโ€™t only record profits. Record mistakes, emotions, impatience, greed, fear. Patterns will expose themselves. Detach from daily results โ–ซ๏ธOne day means nothing. Consistency is built over many trades, not one session. Build discipline off the chart If you canโ€™t control small habits in life, it becomes harder to control yourself in the market. The market is not only testing your strategy. It is testing your character every single day. GM๐Ÿ’œ

Techriz๐Ÿ’ฏ๐Ÿ“ˆ

36,047 views โ€ข 3 months ago

How prediction vouchers work on XBIT Prediction Vouchers (also called Prediction Tickets) are the core reward and participation token in XBITโ€™s ongoing World Cup 2026 campaign. They turn your regular trading activity into entries for big prize pools without needing extra deposits. What are they? โ€ข Event-specific tokens issued by XBIT DEX. โ€ข Non-transferable and campaign-limited (tied to the World Cup Million Prize Pool and related events). โ€ข Used to join daily/weekly prediction markets and share in reward distributions. How to earn Prediction Vouchers 1. Trade on XBITโ€™s prediction markets (sports, politics, BTC price moves, etc.). 2. Trade futures/perpetuals (leverage trading also qualifies). 3. Complete eligible tasks announced in the campaign (volume thresholds, specific market participation, Lucky Spin, etc.). 4. Higher activity means more tickets. Exact multipliers are shown in the event dashboard on How to use them โ€ข Enter Daily Focus Matches or other prediction events. โ€ข Allocate your tickets to outcomes (e.g., Team A wins, Over/Under goals, correct score range). โ€ข Correct or high-performing predictions earn proportional shares of daily and final prize pools (up to $150k+ for the tournament finale on July 19). โ€ข Unused or partially winning tickets may still contribute to overall pool sharing based on total ticket volume. Why they matter They add capital efficiency, you earn tickets through normal trading instead of buying entries. Combined with XBITโ€™s 2xโ€“5x prediction leverage, they let users amplify positions on World Cup outcomes while keeping skin in the game through on-chain, transparent markets. Hands-on tip: Connect your wallet on check your current ticket balance, and browse active matches. Start small with a simple game like โ€œMatch Winnerโ€ to see how tickets convert into real USDC rewards. XBIT + XBIT_ZH #XBIT #XBITCreator
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How prediction vouchers work on XBIT Prediction Vouchers (also called Prediction Tickets) are the core reward and participation token in XBITโ€™s ongoing World Cup 2026 campaign. They turn your regular trading activity into entries for big prize pools without needing extra deposits. What are they? โ€ข Event-specific tokens issued by XBIT DEX. โ€ข Non-transferable and campaign-limited (tied to the World Cup Million Prize Pool and related events). โ€ข Used to join daily/weekly prediction markets and share in reward distributions. How to earn Prediction Vouchers 1. Trade on XBITโ€™s prediction markets (sports, politics, BTC price moves, etc.). 2. Trade futures/perpetuals (leverage trading also qualifies). 3. Complete eligible tasks announced in the campaign (volume thresholds, specific market participation, Lucky Spin, etc.). 4. Higher activity means more tickets. Exact multipliers are shown in the event dashboard on How to use them โ€ข Enter Daily Focus Matches or other prediction events. โ€ข Allocate your tickets to outcomes (e.g., Team A wins, Over/Under goals, correct score range). โ€ข Correct or high-performing predictions earn proportional shares of daily and final prize pools (up to $150k+ for the tournament finale on July 19). โ€ข Unused or partially winning tickets may still contribute to overall pool sharing based on total ticket volume. Why they matter They add capital efficiency, you earn tickets through normal trading instead of buying entries. Combined with XBITโ€™s 2xโ€“5x prediction leverage, they let users amplify positions on World Cup outcomes while keeping skin in the game through on-chain, transparent markets. Hands-on tip: Connect your wallet on check your current ticket balance, and browse active matches. Start small with a simple game like โ€œMatch Winnerโ€ to see how tickets convert into real USDC rewards. XBIT + XBIT_ZH #XBIT #XBITCreator

Wizdo ๐Ÿฆ…

30,952 views โ€ข 22 days ago

Donโ€™t believe the narrative that pregnancy destroys your body. Iโ€™m 3 month postpartum with my 4th. 205 โžก๏ธ 157 I didnโ€™t lose the 5lbs I wanted to this week, but I got close. I also learned that my body is still a fast responder to diet/exercise! I honestly was not expecting such a big change in my body from only 3lbs of fat loss. When I saw what I was on track to lose earlier in the week (thanks homemade turtle brownies ๐Ÿ˜’) I debated not posting a video at all. But then I started to SEE the results and wellโ€ฆ to say they were a massive confidence boost after feeling like a whale for 3 straight months would be an understatement. I still have a ways to go though and my goal is still 5lbs per week till thanksgiving. This is to eliminate the areas Iโ€™m self-conscious about - hips, thighs, and stomach. Iโ€™m also going to get my waist back (27in) and while there are exercises that will help me cinch it in faster, itโ€™s actually heavily dependent on my rib cage coming back down after pregnancy expanded it. It just takes time ๐Ÿ˜ฎโ€๐Ÿ’จ BUT! I have 2 weeks left till Thanksgiving! My goal was to weigh 145lbs by then. I think Iโ€™ll get closeโ€ฆ I have the perfect thanksgiving outfit bought and paid for, so itโ€™s high stakes! Iโ€™ll post a sample workout Iโ€™ve been doing this week later today in another post. Itโ€™ll be another video because I want to show anyone interested the key to building a strong core/pelvic floor and healing diastasis recti (yes mama, you can be/feel snatched again)โ™ฅ๏ธ
0:13

Donโ€™t believe the narrative that pregnancy destroys your body. Iโ€™m 3 month postpartum with my 4th. 205 โžก๏ธ 157 I didnโ€™t lose the 5lbs I wanted to this week, but I got close. I also learned that my body is still a fast responder to diet/exercise! I honestly was not expecting such a big change in my body from only 3lbs of fat loss. When I saw what I was on track to lose earlier in the week (thanks homemade turtle brownies ๐Ÿ˜’) I debated not posting a video at all. But then I started to SEE the results and wellโ€ฆ to say they were a massive confidence boost after feeling like a whale for 3 straight months would be an understatement. I still have a ways to go though and my goal is still 5lbs per week till thanksgiving. This is to eliminate the areas Iโ€™m self-conscious about - hips, thighs, and stomach. Iโ€™m also going to get my waist back (27in) and while there are exercises that will help me cinch it in faster, itโ€™s actually heavily dependent on my rib cage coming back down after pregnancy expanded it. It just takes time ๐Ÿ˜ฎโ€๐Ÿ’จ BUT! I have 2 weeks left till Thanksgiving! My goal was to weigh 145lbs by then. I think Iโ€™ll get closeโ€ฆ I have the perfect thanksgiving outfit bought and paid for, so itโ€™s high stakes! Iโ€™ll post a sample workout Iโ€™ve been doing this week later today in another post. Itโ€™ll be another video because I want to show anyone interested the key to building a strong core/pelvic floor and healing diastasis recti (yes mama, you can be/feel snatched again)โ™ฅ๏ธ

Daughter of Wolves

35,282 views โ€ข 1 year ago

๐Ÿšจ WARNING: TOMORROW WILL BE THE WORST DAY OF 2026!! โ†’ The new Fed chair confirmed interest rate HIKES. โ†’ Japan is starting QE to prevent the bond market collapse. โ†’ China is nonstop dumping U.S. Treasuries. โ†’ US-Iran peace deal is now officially CANCELLED. When markets reopen on Monday, this won't be โ€œjust a small dip.โ€ Stocks will dump. Bonds will dump. Bitcoin will dump even harder. Insiders already know what's coming. They are not โ€œbuying the dip.โ€ They are raising cash, cutting risk, and positioning for the largest risk-off event of the year. Meanwhile, pressure is building across the global financial system. China is dumping foreign treasuries, pushing holdings to the lowest levels seen since 2008. Foreign demand for U.S. debt is disappearing as deficit, inflation, and geopolitical concerns grow. At the same time, Japan's bond market volatility has forced the BOJ back into QE. When the world's two largest foreign creditors step back from debt markets simultaneously, global liquidity disappears fast. โ†’ Japanese bond yields are surging โ†’ Foreign demand for U.S. Treasuries is weakening โ†’ Global bond markets are under heavy pressure โ†’ Oil markets remain unstable โ†’ Liquidity is tightening worldwide โ†’ Volatility is spreading across asset classes This is no longer one isolated problem. This is systemic pressure building across MULTIPLE fronts simultaneously. And now add the geopolitical risk. The U.S.-Iran peace deal fell apart after negotiations failed to produce a lasting agreement. When diplomacy breaks down, markets stop pricing certainty. They price ESCALATION. And once markets begin pricing the possibility of a prolonged U.S.-Iran conflict... Energy markets become impossible to stabilize. Oil does not rise gradually. It goes parabolic. Shipping routes become vulnerable. Supply chains break down. Inflation surges globally. Which means interest rates stay higher for longer. And that creates the exact environment markets cannot survive in: โ†’ Slowing growth โ†’ Persistent inflation โ†’ Tight liquidity โ†’ Rising geopolitical risk โ†’ And collapsing investor confidence And risk assets? They do not โ€œdip.โ€ They DUMP HARD. This is exactly how chain reactions begin. Because once markets start pricing prolonged instability instead of temporary uncertainty, the entire framework changes. Because once this accelerates, there will be no time left to react. I have spent years tracking macro and systemic market reactions like this. When the next move becomes obvious, I will share it here publicly. Follow and turn notifications on. Because by the time it reaches the headlines, it is already too late.
0:19

๐Ÿšจ WARNING: TOMORROW WILL BE THE WORST DAY OF 2026!! โ†’ The new Fed chair confirmed interest rate HIKES. โ†’ Japan is starting QE to prevent the bond market collapse. โ†’ China is nonstop dumping U.S. Treasuries. โ†’ US-Iran peace deal is now officially CANCELLED. When markets reopen on Monday, this won't be โ€œjust a small dip.โ€ Stocks will dump. Bonds will dump. Bitcoin will dump even harder. Insiders already know what's coming. They are not โ€œbuying the dip.โ€ They are raising cash, cutting risk, and positioning for the largest risk-off event of the year. Meanwhile, pressure is building across the global financial system. China is dumping foreign treasuries, pushing holdings to the lowest levels seen since 2008. Foreign demand for U.S. debt is disappearing as deficit, inflation, and geopolitical concerns grow. At the same time, Japan's bond market volatility has forced the BOJ back into QE. When the world's two largest foreign creditors step back from debt markets simultaneously, global liquidity disappears fast. โ†’ Japanese bond yields are surging โ†’ Foreign demand for U.S. Treasuries is weakening โ†’ Global bond markets are under heavy pressure โ†’ Oil markets remain unstable โ†’ Liquidity is tightening worldwide โ†’ Volatility is spreading across asset classes This is no longer one isolated problem. This is systemic pressure building across MULTIPLE fronts simultaneously. And now add the geopolitical risk. The U.S.-Iran peace deal fell apart after negotiations failed to produce a lasting agreement. When diplomacy breaks down, markets stop pricing certainty. They price ESCALATION. And once markets begin pricing the possibility of a prolonged U.S.-Iran conflict... Energy markets become impossible to stabilize. Oil does not rise gradually. It goes parabolic. Shipping routes become vulnerable. Supply chains break down. Inflation surges globally. Which means interest rates stay higher for longer. And that creates the exact environment markets cannot survive in: โ†’ Slowing growth โ†’ Persistent inflation โ†’ Tight liquidity โ†’ Rising geopolitical risk โ†’ And collapsing investor confidence And risk assets? They do not โ€œdip.โ€ They DUMP HARD. This is exactly how chain reactions begin. Because once markets start pricing prolonged instability instead of temporary uncertainty, the entire framework changes. Because once this accelerates, there will be no time left to react. I have spent years tracking macro and systemic market reactions like this. When the next move becomes obvious, I will share it here publicly. Follow and turn notifications on. Because by the time it reaches the headlines, it is already too late.

0xNobler

322,059 views โ€ข 2 months ago

Saylorโ€™s Bitcoin Machine Meets the Cash Reality The real story is not that Strategy may sell up to $1.25B of Bitcoin. The bigger story is that it has moved from a simple accumulation narrative into a complex capital markets machine. The old pitch was buy Bitcoin, never sell, increase Bitcoin per share. The new structure has preferred stock, convertible debt, reserves, buybacks, dividend obligations, and now a BTC monetization plan. That shift matters because Bitcoin does not produce cash flow. Preferred dividends and interest expense do. Strategy says it has about $2.55B in USD reserves and roughly $1.76B in annual preferred dividend and interest obligations. That sounds like about 17 months of coverage, but that number is static. It assumes no future dividend increases, no stress, no buybacks, no taxes, no transaction costs, and no deterioration in capital market access. If they keep raising the STRC dividend to defend the price near par, the cash burn rises and the runway gets shorter. The Digital Credit Problem STRC is marketed as digital credit, but economically it behaves like a high yield perpetual preferred stock tied to confidence in a Bitcoin balance sheet. It is not normal debt because there is no traditional maturity. It is not common equity because it sits ahead of common shareholders and carries a large cash distribution expectation. The design is clever but circular. STRCโ€™s dividend can be adjusted to keep the security near $99 to $100. The dividend was raised to 12%, which may support the price, but it also raises cash burn. If STRC trades below par, Strategy may raise the dividend again. If the dividend rises, the reserve coverage shrinks. If cash gets tight, Strategy needs new issuance, reserves, or Bitcoin sales. The compounding issue makes the structure even more fragile. If dividends are paid on time, they do not compound against the company. But if payments are deferred or missed, unpaid dividends can accumulate and compound monthly until paid. That means a liquidity problem does not just sit there. It can grow on itself. Where The Fragility Lives Strategy owns a volatile, non cash flowing asset and has layered cash obligations on top of it. That works when Bitcoin rises, MSTR trades at a premium, and investors are hungry for yield. It gets harder when Bitcoin falls, spreads widen, or investors demand higher returns. Selling Bitcoin now changes the narrative. Bitcoin is no longer just the sacred reserve asset. It is now a liquidity backstop for dividends, reserves, interest, and buybacks. The $1.25B monetization program adds runway, but it also proves the point. Cash promises need cash sources. That creates the feedback loop. If Bitcoin falls, asset coverage weakens. If STRC trades lower, required yields rise. If yields rise, Strategy may need to raise the dividend. If the dividend rises, cash burn accelerates. If issuance slows, reserves get used. If reserves fall, Bitcoin sales become more likely. If those sales look defensive, confidence weakens further. My Take Common shareholders own the upside, but they sit below debt and preferred claims. Preferred holders get high yield, but they rely on Strategyโ€™s ability to maintain reserves, issue securities, monetize Bitcoin, and keep market confidence intact. This is no longer just a Bitcoin bet. It is a Bitcoin liquidity bet, a capital markets access bet, and a confidence bet. Strategy can survive if Bitcoin rises, MSTR keeps a premium, and yield investors keep funding the machine. If two fail at once, the model becomes fragile. The key red flags are STRC below par, dividend hikes that fail to restore the price, reserve coverage under 12 months, unpaid dividends compounding, visible Bitcoin sales, MSTR near or below NAV, and preferred yields widening. The structure can work, but not forever on narrative alone. Eventually, cash obligations meet cash sources. That is where the risk lives.
0:11

Saylorโ€™s Bitcoin Machine Meets the Cash Reality The real story is not that Strategy may sell up to $1.25B of Bitcoin. The bigger story is that it has moved from a simple accumulation narrative into a complex capital markets machine. The old pitch was buy Bitcoin, never sell, increase Bitcoin per share. The new structure has preferred stock, convertible debt, reserves, buybacks, dividend obligations, and now a BTC monetization plan. That shift matters because Bitcoin does not produce cash flow. Preferred dividends and interest expense do. Strategy says it has about $2.55B in USD reserves and roughly $1.76B in annual preferred dividend and interest obligations. That sounds like about 17 months of coverage, but that number is static. It assumes no future dividend increases, no stress, no buybacks, no taxes, no transaction costs, and no deterioration in capital market access. If they keep raising the STRC dividend to defend the price near par, the cash burn rises and the runway gets shorter. The Digital Credit Problem STRC is marketed as digital credit, but economically it behaves like a high yield perpetual preferred stock tied to confidence in a Bitcoin balance sheet. It is not normal debt because there is no traditional maturity. It is not common equity because it sits ahead of common shareholders and carries a large cash distribution expectation. The design is clever but circular. STRCโ€™s dividend can be adjusted to keep the security near $99 to $100. The dividend was raised to 12%, which may support the price, but it also raises cash burn. If STRC trades below par, Strategy may raise the dividend again. If the dividend rises, the reserve coverage shrinks. If cash gets tight, Strategy needs new issuance, reserves, or Bitcoin sales. The compounding issue makes the structure even more fragile. If dividends are paid on time, they do not compound against the company. But if payments are deferred or missed, unpaid dividends can accumulate and compound monthly until paid. That means a liquidity problem does not just sit there. It can grow on itself. Where The Fragility Lives Strategy owns a volatile, non cash flowing asset and has layered cash obligations on top of it. That works when Bitcoin rises, MSTR trades at a premium, and investors are hungry for yield. It gets harder when Bitcoin falls, spreads widen, or investors demand higher returns. Selling Bitcoin now changes the narrative. Bitcoin is no longer just the sacred reserve asset. It is now a liquidity backstop for dividends, reserves, interest, and buybacks. The $1.25B monetization program adds runway, but it also proves the point. Cash promises need cash sources. That creates the feedback loop. If Bitcoin falls, asset coverage weakens. If STRC trades lower, required yields rise. If yields rise, Strategy may need to raise the dividend. If the dividend rises, cash burn accelerates. If issuance slows, reserves get used. If reserves fall, Bitcoin sales become more likely. If those sales look defensive, confidence weakens further. My Take Common shareholders own the upside, but they sit below debt and preferred claims. Preferred holders get high yield, but they rely on Strategyโ€™s ability to maintain reserves, issue securities, monetize Bitcoin, and keep market confidence intact. This is no longer just a Bitcoin bet. It is a Bitcoin liquidity bet, a capital markets access bet, and a confidence bet. Strategy can survive if Bitcoin rises, MSTR keeps a premium, and yield investors keep funding the machine. If two fail at once, the model becomes fragile. The key red flags are STRC below par, dividend hikes that fail to restore the price, reserve coverage under 12 months, unpaid dividends compounding, visible Bitcoin sales, MSTR near or below NAV, and preferred yields widening. The structure can work, but not forever on narrative alone. Eventually, cash obligations meet cash sources. That is where the risk lives.

EndGame Macro

33,374 views โ€ข 1 month ago

โ€ผ๏ธ One-Day ultimate guide to Monterosso, Cinque Terre, Liguria - Italy ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿงณ Based on my own direct experience Point 1 โ€“ Take an Intercity train In Italy, Intercity trains assign you a seated place, so even in second class you travel comfortably and relaxed When the train is full, they stop selling tickets, which means everyone travels seated, no standing Avoid the Interregional trains instead: they donโ€™t have assigned seats and, especially in high season, you risk traveling standing up or very uncomfortably Point 2 โ€“ Arrive early (around 9 AM) Wake up early and arrive in Monterosso possibly around nine in the morning At that time there are few people, the atmosphere is wonderful and peaceful, and many places serve really good breakfasts It is truly worth setting the alarm early for once Point 3 โ€“ Book your beach spot in advance It gets very hot in Monterosso and the free beach is crowded For a truly comfortable and pleasant day, book a sunbed + umbrella It costs about 20/30 euros per person and is well worth it The two beach clubs I recommend are Bagni Stella Marina and Bagni Eden You can book them easily on spiagge dot it Choose the date, pay online, receive the QR code, and when you arrive everything is already set up (your sunbed and umbrella reserved) At Bagni Stella Marina you can also pre-order drinks like spritz, mojito, bottles of wine, or anything else Point 4 โ€“ Book your lunch too Restaurants in Monterosso are few and almost always full Make a reservation in advance, especially if you want to eat well without stress. My top recommendation is the restaurant โ€œMikyโ€: excellent cuisine, Michelin Guide, but with very reasonable and accessible prices The food is divine! End of the day When the crowd starts to thin out in the evening, enjoy a spritz, a gelato, or an aperitivo wherever you like Then simply catch your Intercity train back home With these small precautions, youโ€™ll have a wonderful day in Monterosso, fully enjoying the sea and the area without really feeling the overtourism Have a great trip and enjoy this paradise in the Cinque Terre! ๐ŸŒŠ
0:12

โ€ผ๏ธ One-Day ultimate guide to Monterosso, Cinque Terre, Liguria - Italy ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡น๐Ÿงณ Based on my own direct experience Point 1 โ€“ Take an Intercity train In Italy, Intercity trains assign you a seated place, so even in second class you travel comfortably and relaxed When the train is full, they stop selling tickets, which means everyone travels seated, no standing Avoid the Interregional trains instead: they donโ€™t have assigned seats and, especially in high season, you risk traveling standing up or very uncomfortably Point 2 โ€“ Arrive early (around 9 AM) Wake up early and arrive in Monterosso possibly around nine in the morning At that time there are few people, the atmosphere is wonderful and peaceful, and many places serve really good breakfasts It is truly worth setting the alarm early for once Point 3 โ€“ Book your beach spot in advance It gets very hot in Monterosso and the free beach is crowded For a truly comfortable and pleasant day, book a sunbed + umbrella It costs about 20/30 euros per person and is well worth it The two beach clubs I recommend are Bagni Stella Marina and Bagni Eden You can book them easily on spiagge dot it Choose the date, pay online, receive the QR code, and when you arrive everything is already set up (your sunbed and umbrella reserved) At Bagni Stella Marina you can also pre-order drinks like spritz, mojito, bottles of wine, or anything else Point 4 โ€“ Book your lunch too Restaurants in Monterosso are few and almost always full Make a reservation in advance, especially if you want to eat well without stress. My top recommendation is the restaurant โ€œMikyโ€: excellent cuisine, Michelin Guide, but with very reasonable and accessible prices The food is divine! End of the day When the crowd starts to thin out in the evening, enjoy a spritz, a gelato, or an aperitivo wherever you like Then simply catch your Intercity train back home With these small precautions, youโ€™ll have a wonderful day in Monterosso, fully enjoying the sea and the area without really feeling the overtourism Have a great trip and enjoy this paradise in the Cinque Terre! ๐ŸŒŠ

Mambo Italiano

27,306 views โ€ข 1 month ago

Facial reconstruction of a 10,000-year-old woman from Alborz, Iran She was described by the anthropologist J. Lawrence Angel (1951) as follows: Hotu 2 and 3 were found partly supine, with their heads together and positioned lower than their footless legs, within the early 4th gravel layer above an underlying sandy deposit. This position suggests a casual backward fall from a higher level near the cave wall and does not rule out accidental death, possibly caused by falling rock disturbed by food-gatherers. The woman (Hotu 2) was about 167 cm tall, with a muscular yet slender build. Although she showed robust bony ridges, her femoral robusticity index (11.9) indicates a slender shaft. Deep gluteal fossae, pronounced crests, strong adductor tubercles, and enlarged muscle attachment areas on the tibiae suggest well-developed muscles adapted to rough-terrain travel. Her hands were long and narrow, shoulders likely not broad, and hips narrow. While some proportions approach those of lanky modern males and the skull may give a male first impression, the pelvis is clearly female, with a deep inlet and wide outlet. Pelvic features also suggest physical stress, possibly related to carrying children. The pubic symphysis corresponds to early Phase V. Overall, this woman, about 27 years old, was exceptionally strong, tall, and slender, surpassing the average build of ancient Greek, Medieval Norwegian, or modern American women. The skull vault is 75โ€“100 cc larger than the modern average (1,325 cc). It is long and high, with a noticeable post-coronal depression and concave temporal planes, suggesting the parietal curve was not fully corrected during growth. The cerebellar area bulges downward, giving the brain cavity a vertically developed, somewhat empty appearance. These vault features resemble those seen in populations across the African and Near Eastern desert zones. However, the broad skull base, wide face, low rectangular orbits tilted downward, small nose, nearly horizontal chewing plane, square jaw angles, and protruding chin are Cro-Magnon-like. This differs from the later Iranian facial type, which is narrower and more sloping. Among the Hotu population, such features as the mouth and chin combination, the Cro-Magnon-like low orbits, the Iranian full cerebellum, and perhaps trends toward sacral hiatus and first molar abscess point to a certain genetic unity, and plausibly "inbreeding." She had a large cranial length of 186 mm, medium-large cranial width of 135 mm, medium-large cheek width 129 mm.
0:10

Facial reconstruction of a 10,000-year-old woman from Alborz, Iran She was described by the anthropologist J. Lawrence Angel (1951) as follows: Hotu 2 and 3 were found partly supine, with their heads together and positioned lower than their footless legs, within the early 4th gravel layer above an underlying sandy deposit. This position suggests a casual backward fall from a higher level near the cave wall and does not rule out accidental death, possibly caused by falling rock disturbed by food-gatherers. The woman (Hotu 2) was about 167 cm tall, with a muscular yet slender build. Although she showed robust bony ridges, her femoral robusticity index (11.9) indicates a slender shaft. Deep gluteal fossae, pronounced crests, strong adductor tubercles, and enlarged muscle attachment areas on the tibiae suggest well-developed muscles adapted to rough-terrain travel. Her hands were long and narrow, shoulders likely not broad, and hips narrow. While some proportions approach those of lanky modern males and the skull may give a male first impression, the pelvis is clearly female, with a deep inlet and wide outlet. Pelvic features also suggest physical stress, possibly related to carrying children. The pubic symphysis corresponds to early Phase V. Overall, this woman, about 27 years old, was exceptionally strong, tall, and slender, surpassing the average build of ancient Greek, Medieval Norwegian, or modern American women. The skull vault is 75โ€“100 cc larger than the modern average (1,325 cc). It is long and high, with a noticeable post-coronal depression and concave temporal planes, suggesting the parietal curve was not fully corrected during growth. The cerebellar area bulges downward, giving the brain cavity a vertically developed, somewhat empty appearance. These vault features resemble those seen in populations across the African and Near Eastern desert zones. However, the broad skull base, wide face, low rectangular orbits tilted downward, small nose, nearly horizontal chewing plane, square jaw angles, and protruding chin are Cro-Magnon-like. This differs from the later Iranian facial type, which is narrower and more sloping. Among the Hotu population, such features as the mouth and chin combination, the Cro-Magnon-like low orbits, the Iranian full cerebellum, and perhaps trends toward sacral hiatus and first molar abscess point to a certain genetic unity, and plausibly "inbreeding." She had a large cranial length of 186 mm, medium-large cranial width of 135 mm, medium-large cheek width 129 mm.

Ancestral Whispers

61,084 views โ€ข 6 months ago

#Breaking Coordinated U.S.-Israel Strikes on Iranian Targets โ€“ February 28, 2026: Tehran, Iran โ€“ February 28, 2026 โ€“ A series of rapidly escalating military strikes targeted key Iranian government, military, and leadership sites early Saturday morning local time. Israel described the operation as a โ€œpre-emptive strikeโ€ to neutralize threats to its security, with confirmed U.S. participation in joint air and sea operations. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz stated the attacks aimed to โ€œremove threats to the State of Israel.โ€ President Donald Trump announced that the United States had initiated โ€œmajor combat operationsโ€ in Iran. Initial Strikes and Targets in Tehran At least four explosions were reported in western Tehran, affecting high-profile locations including: - The Supreme Leaderโ€™s compound (Bit-e Rahbari) on Pasteur Street. - The Atomic Energy Organization building. - The Ministry of Intelligence headquarters (reportedly destroyed). Additional strikes hit the Ministry of Defense, the Parchin military complex, Mehrabad Airport, the presidential residence, and areas such as Velenjak (near parliament) and Khavaran Road in eastern Tehran. Footage showed thick smoke rising from urban zones. Unconfirmed reports also indicated aerial attacks on the Palace of Justice and Supreme Court. Mossad reportedly stated: โ€œThe game has just begun; even underground is not safe.โ€ Wider Strikes Across Iran Explosions were reported beyond Tehran in cities including Qom (multiple sites), Isfahan, Khorramabad, Tabriz, Karaj, Kermanshah, Ilam, and Lorestan. Israeli radio claimed approximately 30 targets were struck nationwide, including the presidentโ€™s residence and intelligence facilities. Images from Tabriz depicted explosions, while multiple blasts were heard in eastern and western Tehran. Reported Targeted Assassinations (Initial, Unconfirmed) - President Masoud Pezeshkian (allegedly killed in Israeli airstrikes on Tehran). - Judiciary Chief Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejeโ€™i. - Army Commander Brig. Gen. Amir Hatami. These incidents were described as part of numerous simultaneous high-value target operations. Military Operations - Israeli cruise missiles were observed in flight; some strikes originated from Damascus airspace. - U.S. fighter jets and bombers, operating from regional bases and an aircraft carrier, employed Tomahawk cruise missiles and other munitions (per The New York Times). - Fighter jets flew over Tehran (claimed not to be Iranian; Iranian airspace reportedly closed). Cyber and Psychological Operations - Websites of major Iranian news agencies (IRNA, ISNA, Asr Iran, Tabnak) were hacked. - The popular azan app โ€œBade Sabaโ€ displayed messages such as โ€œHelp has arrived,โ€ interpreted as opposition or foreign interference. Broader Context and Developments - Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was reportedly relocated to a secure site outside Tehran. - Warnings circulated of a challenging 96-hour period ahead, with advice to avoid government, military, hospital, school, and mosque sites and to stock essentials. - Accusations emerged of Arab nations facilitating the strikes (โ€œbackstabโ€). - Regime sources claimed overhead jets were Iranian (dismissed as disinformation). These events mark the onset of intensified confrontation, with potential for significant regime impact. Details are drawn from live citizen reports, videos, photos of explosions and smoke, and cited media/official statements. Many specifics remain unverified by independent sources at this early stage.
0:07

#Breaking Coordinated U.S.-Israel Strikes on Iranian Targets โ€“ February 28, 2026: Tehran, Iran โ€“ February 28, 2026 โ€“ A series of rapidly escalating military strikes targeted key Iranian government, military, and leadership sites early Saturday morning local time. Israel described the operation as a โ€œpre-emptive strikeโ€ to neutralize threats to its security, with confirmed U.S. participation in joint air and sea operations. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz stated the attacks aimed to โ€œremove threats to the State of Israel.โ€ President Donald Trump announced that the United States had initiated โ€œmajor combat operationsโ€ in Iran. Initial Strikes and Targets in Tehran At least four explosions were reported in western Tehran, affecting high-profile locations including: - The Supreme Leaderโ€™s compound (Bit-e Rahbari) on Pasteur Street. - The Atomic Energy Organization building. - The Ministry of Intelligence headquarters (reportedly destroyed). Additional strikes hit the Ministry of Defense, the Parchin military complex, Mehrabad Airport, the presidential residence, and areas such as Velenjak (near parliament) and Khavaran Road in eastern Tehran. Footage showed thick smoke rising from urban zones. Unconfirmed reports also indicated aerial attacks on the Palace of Justice and Supreme Court. Mossad reportedly stated: โ€œThe game has just begun; even underground is not safe.โ€ Wider Strikes Across Iran Explosions were reported beyond Tehran in cities including Qom (multiple sites), Isfahan, Khorramabad, Tabriz, Karaj, Kermanshah, Ilam, and Lorestan. Israeli radio claimed approximately 30 targets were struck nationwide, including the presidentโ€™s residence and intelligence facilities. Images from Tabriz depicted explosions, while multiple blasts were heard in eastern and western Tehran. Reported Targeted Assassinations (Initial, Unconfirmed) - President Masoud Pezeshkian (allegedly killed in Israeli airstrikes on Tehran). - Judiciary Chief Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejeโ€™i. - Army Commander Brig. Gen. Amir Hatami. These incidents were described as part of numerous simultaneous high-value target operations. Military Operations - Israeli cruise missiles were observed in flight; some strikes originated from Damascus airspace. - U.S. fighter jets and bombers, operating from regional bases and an aircraft carrier, employed Tomahawk cruise missiles and other munitions (per The New York Times). - Fighter jets flew over Tehran (claimed not to be Iranian; Iranian airspace reportedly closed). Cyber and Psychological Operations - Websites of major Iranian news agencies (IRNA, ISNA, Asr Iran, Tabnak) were hacked. - The popular azan app โ€œBade Sabaโ€ displayed messages such as โ€œHelp has arrived,โ€ interpreted as opposition or foreign interference. Broader Context and Developments - Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was reportedly relocated to a secure site outside Tehran. - Warnings circulated of a challenging 96-hour period ahead, with advice to avoid government, military, hospital, school, and mosque sites and to stock essentials. - Accusations emerged of Arab nations facilitating the strikes (โ€œbackstabโ€). - Regime sources claimed overhead jets were Iranian (dismissed as disinformation). These events mark the onset of intensified confrontation, with potential for significant regime impact. Details are drawn from live citizen reports, videos, photos of explosions and smoke, and cited media/official statements. Many specifics remain unverified by independent sources at this early stage.

๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ท OSINT WWIII ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ

16,223 views โ€ข 5 months ago

Facial reconstruction of a 8,000-year-old EHG from Karelia The individual (Oleny Ostrov grave 75), who carried Y-DNA J1, was found in the famous Neolithic cemetary of Oleny Ostrov. The Oleny Ostrov burial ground is a vast Neolithic necropolis on South Oleny Island in Lake Onega, Karelia. Excavated between 1936 and 1938 by Professor V. I. Ravdonikas, it is one of the most important prehistoric cemeteries in northern Europe. Its significance lies in its large number of burials, exceptionally rich archaeological and anthropological remains, and a distinctive funerary tradition unlike any other known Neolithic cemetery. The site is also notable for its remarkable bone artifacts and unique stone tool assemblage. The individual was described by the anthropologist V.P. Yakimov (1960) as follows: The skeleton was found lying on its back in an extended position. It was oriented with the head toward the east, slightly deviating toward the north. No grave goods were present. Determining the sex is rather difficult because the diagnostic characteristics are only weakly expressed. The individual was most likely male, although some uncertainty remains. The individual died at a mature adult age. The skull is medium-sized, elongated, and heavy, with very thick cranial bones but only moderate brow ridges and cranial relief. The forehead is moderately sloping, the cranial vault long with flattened parietals, and the occiput bears a low occipital torus. The face is relatively high and of medium breadth. It exhibits considerable flatness in both the orbital and zygomatic regions. The canine fossae are moderately expressed (grade 2). The cheekbones are low. In frontal view, the contour of the zygomatic bones is intermediate between the classic "Europoid" form, with a pronounced hook at the zygomaxillary suture, and the "Mongolid" form, where the transition between the maxillary and zygomatic bones is smooth and lacks such a hook. The nasal aperture is narrow, prominent but flattened-root nasal bones, and an orthognathous profile. The mandible is medium-sized but robust, with a thick body, broad rami, and a moderately projecting chin. The teeth are relatively small with light to moderate wear. The limb bones are generally slender with weak to moderate muscle markings, although the humeri are relatively robust. The clavicles are long, slender, and strongly curved. The individual (UOO059) carried Y-DNA J1 and mtDNA R1b. His maternal lineage has been identified in the ANE individual Afontova Gora 3, while his Y-DNA lineage has been found in several other EHG individuals, including two other at Oleny Ostrov and one at Popovo nearby. Although its ultimate origin remains uncertain. Its relationship to the J1 lineage from Satsurblia may suggest that it spread from the Caucasus to Karelia along the Volga. Autosomally, he was a typical Karelian EHG. Karelian EHGs differed slightly from the main Sidelkino EHG cluster by harboring additional ANE/less WHG admixture.
0:15

Facial reconstruction of a 8,000-year-old EHG from Karelia The individual (Oleny Ostrov grave 75), who carried Y-DNA J1, was found in the famous Neolithic cemetary of Oleny Ostrov. The Oleny Ostrov burial ground is a vast Neolithic necropolis on South Oleny Island in Lake Onega, Karelia. Excavated between 1936 and 1938 by Professor V. I. Ravdonikas, it is one of the most important prehistoric cemeteries in northern Europe. Its significance lies in its large number of burials, exceptionally rich archaeological and anthropological remains, and a distinctive funerary tradition unlike any other known Neolithic cemetery. The site is also notable for its remarkable bone artifacts and unique stone tool assemblage. The individual was described by the anthropologist V.P. Yakimov (1960) as follows: The skeleton was found lying on its back in an extended position. It was oriented with the head toward the east, slightly deviating toward the north. No grave goods were present. Determining the sex is rather difficult because the diagnostic characteristics are only weakly expressed. The individual was most likely male, although some uncertainty remains. The individual died at a mature adult age. The skull is medium-sized, elongated, and heavy, with very thick cranial bones but only moderate brow ridges and cranial relief. The forehead is moderately sloping, the cranial vault long with flattened parietals, and the occiput bears a low occipital torus. The face is relatively high and of medium breadth. It exhibits considerable flatness in both the orbital and zygomatic regions. The canine fossae are moderately expressed (grade 2). The cheekbones are low. In frontal view, the contour of the zygomatic bones is intermediate between the classic "Europoid" form, with a pronounced hook at the zygomaxillary suture, and the "Mongolid" form, where the transition between the maxillary and zygomatic bones is smooth and lacks such a hook. The nasal aperture is narrow, prominent but flattened-root nasal bones, and an orthognathous profile. The mandible is medium-sized but robust, with a thick body, broad rami, and a moderately projecting chin. The teeth are relatively small with light to moderate wear. The limb bones are generally slender with weak to moderate muscle markings, although the humeri are relatively robust. The clavicles are long, slender, and strongly curved. The individual (UOO059) carried Y-DNA J1 and mtDNA R1b. His maternal lineage has been identified in the ANE individual Afontova Gora 3, while his Y-DNA lineage has been found in several other EHG individuals, including two other at Oleny Ostrov and one at Popovo nearby. Although its ultimate origin remains uncertain. Its relationship to the J1 lineage from Satsurblia may suggest that it spread from the Caucasus to Karelia along the Volga. Autosomally, he was a typical Karelian EHG. Karelian EHGs differed slightly from the main Sidelkino EHG cluster by harboring additional ANE/less WHG admixture.

Ancestral Whispers

34,115 views โ€ข 1 month ago

With Nowhere Else to Turn, Niger Begs Nigeria for Fuel Amid Severe Shortages By: Zagazola Makama For nearly two weeks, Niger Republic has been crippled by a severe fuel crisis, bringing vehicular movement and economic activity to a grinding halt. Long queues stretched across cities, with desperate motorists and businesses struggling to obtain a few liters of petrol. The situation was so dire that the military junta, which once prided itself on rejecting external influence, had no choice but to swallow its pride and turn to Nigeria for help. Despite months of hostile rhetoric and diplomatic friction, Nigerโ€™s rulers quietly dispatched their Minister of Petroleum and Renewable Energy, along with top officials from the Niger Petroleum Company (SONIDEP), to beg Abuja for urgent fuel supplies. Nigeria, ever the regional big brother, obliged, approving the immediate delivery of 300 fuel trucks across the border to Niamey. Nigerโ€™s fuel crisis didnโ€™t happen overnight. It was the direct consequence of a disastrous confrontation between the ruling junta and Chinese oil companies, which have long dominated Nigerโ€™s petroleum sector. The trouble began in March 2024, when China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) granted the Nigerien government a $400 million advance, using future crude oil deliveries as collateral. This deal was meant to help Niger cope with the crippling economic sanctions imposed by ECOWAS following the July 2023 coup. However, when it came time to repay the debt, the junta found itself strapped for cash. Rather than negotiating, the military rulers decided to strong-arm China. In a move that stunned industry insiders, they slapped an $80 billion tax demand on SORAZ (Zinder Refinery Company) despite the state-owned Sonidep already owing SORAZ a staggering $250 billion. When China refused to provide additional loans, the junta retaliated by expelling Chinese oil executives from the country and seizing SORAZโ€™s bank accounts. A Self-Inflicted Crisis This reckless decision backfired almost immediately. Nigerโ€™s entire petroleum sector which is heavily reliant on Chinese expertise and investment began to collapse. The SORAZ refinery, the lifeline of Nigerโ€™s fuel supply, ground to a halt, and fuel shortages spread like wildfire. This crisis could not have come at a worse time. The Niger-Benin oil pipeline, a project designed to boost Nigerโ€™s crude exports to 100,000 barrels per day by 2025, was also at risk. With Chinese engineers gone and no viable alternative in place, the juntaโ€™s decision plunged the country into economic uncertainty. Turning to Nigeria for Help For weeks, the military leadership refused to acknowledge the crisis publicly. State-controlled media was ordered to stay silent about the fuel shortage and the growing unrest among Nigeriens, who were forced to buy petrol at sky-high black-market prices. But as the situation worsened, the junta had no choice but to seek external help even if it meant approaching Nigeria, the very country they had repeatedly criticized since the coup. Without any public announcement, Niger quietly sent a delegation to Abuja, appealing for an emergency fuel supply. The irony was lost on no one this was the same junta that had openly defied ECOWAS sanctions, severed ties with France and the West, and aligned itself with Russia. Yet when faced with economic collapse, it was Nigeria that they turned to for salvation. Nigeria Plays the Good Neighbor Again Despite months of insults, false accusations, name calling, diplomatic snubs, and hostility, Nigeria once again stepped in to help. It was gathered that the Nigerian Government approved the release of 300 fuel trucks, which immediately began crossing into Niger to ease the crisis.
0:14

With Nowhere Else to Turn, Niger Begs Nigeria for Fuel Amid Severe Shortages By: Zagazola Makama For nearly two weeks, Niger Republic has been crippled by a severe fuel crisis, bringing vehicular movement and economic activity to a grinding halt. Long queues stretched across cities, with desperate motorists and businesses struggling to obtain a few liters of petrol. The situation was so dire that the military junta, which once prided itself on rejecting external influence, had no choice but to swallow its pride and turn to Nigeria for help. Despite months of hostile rhetoric and diplomatic friction, Nigerโ€™s rulers quietly dispatched their Minister of Petroleum and Renewable Energy, along with top officials from the Niger Petroleum Company (SONIDEP), to beg Abuja for urgent fuel supplies. Nigeria, ever the regional big brother, obliged, approving the immediate delivery of 300 fuel trucks across the border to Niamey. Nigerโ€™s fuel crisis didnโ€™t happen overnight. It was the direct consequence of a disastrous confrontation between the ruling junta and Chinese oil companies, which have long dominated Nigerโ€™s petroleum sector. The trouble began in March 2024, when China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) granted the Nigerien government a $400 million advance, using future crude oil deliveries as collateral. This deal was meant to help Niger cope with the crippling economic sanctions imposed by ECOWAS following the July 2023 coup. However, when it came time to repay the debt, the junta found itself strapped for cash. Rather than negotiating, the military rulers decided to strong-arm China. In a move that stunned industry insiders, they slapped an $80 billion tax demand on SORAZ (Zinder Refinery Company) despite the state-owned Sonidep already owing SORAZ a staggering $250 billion. When China refused to provide additional loans, the junta retaliated by expelling Chinese oil executives from the country and seizing SORAZโ€™s bank accounts. A Self-Inflicted Crisis This reckless decision backfired almost immediately. Nigerโ€™s entire petroleum sector which is heavily reliant on Chinese expertise and investment began to collapse. The SORAZ refinery, the lifeline of Nigerโ€™s fuel supply, ground to a halt, and fuel shortages spread like wildfire. This crisis could not have come at a worse time. The Niger-Benin oil pipeline, a project designed to boost Nigerโ€™s crude exports to 100,000 barrels per day by 2025, was also at risk. With Chinese engineers gone and no viable alternative in place, the juntaโ€™s decision plunged the country into economic uncertainty. Turning to Nigeria for Help For weeks, the military leadership refused to acknowledge the crisis publicly. State-controlled media was ordered to stay silent about the fuel shortage and the growing unrest among Nigeriens, who were forced to buy petrol at sky-high black-market prices. But as the situation worsened, the junta had no choice but to seek external help even if it meant approaching Nigeria, the very country they had repeatedly criticized since the coup. Without any public announcement, Niger quietly sent a delegation to Abuja, appealing for an emergency fuel supply. The irony was lost on no one this was the same junta that had openly defied ECOWAS sanctions, severed ties with France and the West, and aligned itself with Russia. Yet when faced with economic collapse, it was Nigeria that they turned to for salvation. Nigeria Plays the Good Neighbor Again Despite months of insults, false accusations, name calling, diplomatic snubs, and hostility, Nigeria once again stepped in to help. It was gathered that the Nigerian Government approved the release of 300 fuel trucks, which immediately began crossing into Niger to ease the crisis.

Zagazola

327,792 views โ€ข 1 year ago

BAPCO Energies confirmed on April 5 that a storage tank at its Sitra facility in Bahrain caught fire โ€œas a result of a hostile Iranian drone attack.โ€ The fire was extinguished. No injuries. Damage under assessment. That is the official statement, repeated verbatim across Bahrain News Agency, Gulf News, Al Arabiya, and Xinhua. It is clean, attributable, and consistent with the pattern of Iranian drone and missile strikes on Gulf energy infrastructure that has continued daily since February 28. Then the videos appeared. Footage circulating on social media, shared by Drop Site News and multiple Arabic-language accounts, appears to show two sequential impacts at the facility: one from the incoming drone, and a second moments later from what the accounts describe as a Patriot interceptor missile that failed to intercept the drone and instead struck the oil storage tanks directly. The videos have not been independently verified. The trajectory analysis has not been forensically confirmed. BAPCOโ€™s statement does not mention air defence involvement. The Bahrain Defence Force reported 13 successful drone interceptions in the preceding 24 hours and made no acknowledgement of a misfire. This has happened before. On March 9, an explosion near BAPCO in Sitra injured dozens and was attributed to an Iranian drone. Reuters and the Middlebury Institute subsequently concluded with moderate-to-high confidence that a US-operated Patriot interceptor caused the blast. Drone fragments were absent at the impact site. The damage pattern matched a Patriot warhead detonating at low altitude after losing its target. Bahrain later acknowledged Patriot involvement without formally correcting the original attribution. The March 9 precedent is what makes the April 5 videos significant. Not because they prove the interceptor hit the tank. They do not prove that. But because they introduce a documented pattern: in saturated airspace where dozens of Iranian drones arrive simultaneously, Patriot systems operating at the edge of their engagement envelope against small, slow, low-altitude targets can produce outcomes where the defence causes the damage it was deployed to prevent. The drone is the threat. The interceptor is the response. And the oil tank does not distinguish between the two when the impact arrives. BAPCO operates a 405,000 barrel per day refinery at Sitra. It was struck by confirmed Iranian missiles on March 5, triggering force majeure. It was struck by what was later assessed as friendly fire on March 9, injuring residents. It was struck again on April 5 by what officials call a drone and what videos suggest may have also involved an interceptor. Three incidents in five weeks at the same facility. No force majeure was declared for April 5. The fire was contained rapidly. But the question the videos raise is not about this fire. It is about what happens when Patriot systems engage small, slow, low-altitude drones in saturated airspace directly above the infrastructure they are positioned to protect. Iran does not need to penetrate the shield. It needs to force the shield to fire in conditions where the shieldโ€™s own projectiles become the threat. The defence and the attack converge on the same target. And the oil burns either way.
0:18

BAPCO Energies confirmed on April 5 that a storage tank at its Sitra facility in Bahrain caught fire โ€œas a result of a hostile Iranian drone attack.โ€ The fire was extinguished. No injuries. Damage under assessment. That is the official statement, repeated verbatim across Bahrain News Agency, Gulf News, Al Arabiya, and Xinhua. It is clean, attributable, and consistent with the pattern of Iranian drone and missile strikes on Gulf energy infrastructure that has continued daily since February 28. Then the videos appeared. Footage circulating on social media, shared by Drop Site News and multiple Arabic-language accounts, appears to show two sequential impacts at the facility: one from the incoming drone, and a second moments later from what the accounts describe as a Patriot interceptor missile that failed to intercept the drone and instead struck the oil storage tanks directly. The videos have not been independently verified. The trajectory analysis has not been forensically confirmed. BAPCOโ€™s statement does not mention air defence involvement. The Bahrain Defence Force reported 13 successful drone interceptions in the preceding 24 hours and made no acknowledgement of a misfire. This has happened before. On March 9, an explosion near BAPCO in Sitra injured dozens and was attributed to an Iranian drone. Reuters and the Middlebury Institute subsequently concluded with moderate-to-high confidence that a US-operated Patriot interceptor caused the blast. Drone fragments were absent at the impact site. The damage pattern matched a Patriot warhead detonating at low altitude after losing its target. Bahrain later acknowledged Patriot involvement without formally correcting the original attribution. The March 9 precedent is what makes the April 5 videos significant. Not because they prove the interceptor hit the tank. They do not prove that. But because they introduce a documented pattern: in saturated airspace where dozens of Iranian drones arrive simultaneously, Patriot systems operating at the edge of their engagement envelope against small, slow, low-altitude targets can produce outcomes where the defence causes the damage it was deployed to prevent. The drone is the threat. The interceptor is the response. And the oil tank does not distinguish between the two when the impact arrives. BAPCO operates a 405,000 barrel per day refinery at Sitra. It was struck by confirmed Iranian missiles on March 5, triggering force majeure. It was struck by what was later assessed as friendly fire on March 9, injuring residents. It was struck again on April 5 by what officials call a drone and what videos suggest may have also involved an interceptor. Three incidents in five weeks at the same facility. No force majeure was declared for April 5. The fire was contained rapidly. But the question the videos raise is not about this fire. It is about what happens when Patriot systems engage small, slow, low-altitude drones in saturated airspace directly above the infrastructure they are positioned to protect. Iran does not need to penetrate the shield. It needs to force the shield to fire in conditions where the shieldโ€™s own projectiles become the threat. The defence and the attack converge on the same target. And the oil burns either way.

Shanaka Anslem Perera โšก

21,810 views โ€ข 4 months ago

Ola recently announced that they are bringing affordable AI to Indian developers. ๐‰๐š๐ซ๐ฏ๐ข๐ฌ๐ฅ๐š๐›๐ฌ an Indian company has been providing affordable GPUs for developers across the globe since 2020. We are a little known, so I want to share our story here. ๐–๐ก๐จ ๐ฐ๐ž ๐š๐ซ๐ž We are bootstrapped, building from the outskirts of Coimbatore. Started as a small team of 4, from humble backgrounds none from IITs/IIMs. Currently, we are a team of 12+. ๐–๐ก๐š๐ญ ๐ฐ๐ž ๐š๐œ๐ก๐ข๐ž๐ฏ๐ž๐ The cost of hosting GPU servers 4 years back in India was insanely high. We got 2 quotes which charged us Rs. 1.5L for a single server per month. At that cost, it was not practical for us to do the business. So we went to the first principle to build an MVP for a mini data center/server room. For the first few years, we ran all our servers from a room fitted with ACs, a UPS, and a Generator, which experts claimed would not work. As we scaled, we faced the heat of our setup, but by then we accumulated more money than we had. So last year we moved it to a tier 3+ DC near Bangalore. This helped us boost the confidence of our users, as we have redundancy for power, internet, and networking which gives us and our customers a lot of peaceful nights. ๐–๐ก๐จ ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ž๐ฌ ๐‰๐š๐ซ๐ฏ๐ข๐ฌ๐ฅ๐š๐›๐ฌ Developers and artists from across the world have supported us in our journey. Some prominent companies are ZOHO (My inspiration), Weights and Biases, UNC, UpGrad, and many more. ๐‘๐ž๐ฏ๐ž๐ง๐ฎ๐ž We crossed 580K USD in the last financial year, the highest ever in our history. Being bootstrapped, the only way for us to grow is to put all the money back. Our customers are our investors, as a founder I have hardly taken a paycheck for the last 4+ years, since the team also believes in our vision they are happy not taking a fancy cheque. ๐•๐ข๐ฌ๐ข๐จ๐ง As AI evolves, we want to bring the capabilities of AI to users at the lowest prices possible. Being bootstrapped, the only way to survive is to be frugal and disciplined. ๐‡๐ข๐ซ๐ข๐ง๐  I am proud of our hiring strategy. We hired only freshers to date, and most of our hires do not have a formal degree. They come from rural areas and economically challenged backgrounds. The average age of our new team is 19. They have played an active role in building our V2 of Jarvislabs and improving the product daily. I love to thank everyone for supporting us in our journey. Thanks to Analytics India Magazine, INDIAai, fastai for recognizing us in our early years. If our story resonates with you, Please share our story to inspire others & support our mission. #StartupIndia
0:10

Ola recently announced that they are bringing affordable AI to Indian developers. ๐‰๐š๐ซ๐ฏ๐ข๐ฌ๐ฅ๐š๐›๐ฌ an Indian company has been providing affordable GPUs for developers across the globe since 2020. We are a little known, so I want to share our story here. ๐–๐ก๐จ ๐ฐ๐ž ๐š๐ซ๐ž We are bootstrapped, building from the outskirts of Coimbatore. Started as a small team of 4, from humble backgrounds none from IITs/IIMs. Currently, we are a team of 12+. ๐–๐ก๐š๐ญ ๐ฐ๐ž ๐š๐œ๐ก๐ข๐ž๐ฏ๐ž๐ The cost of hosting GPU servers 4 years back in India was insanely high. We got 2 quotes which charged us Rs. 1.5L for a single server per month. At that cost, it was not practical for us to do the business. So we went to the first principle to build an MVP for a mini data center/server room. For the first few years, we ran all our servers from a room fitted with ACs, a UPS, and a Generator, which experts claimed would not work. As we scaled, we faced the heat of our setup, but by then we accumulated more money than we had. So last year we moved it to a tier 3+ DC near Bangalore. This helped us boost the confidence of our users, as we have redundancy for power, internet, and networking which gives us and our customers a lot of peaceful nights. ๐–๐ก๐จ ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ž๐ฌ ๐‰๐š๐ซ๐ฏ๐ข๐ฌ๐ฅ๐š๐›๐ฌ Developers and artists from across the world have supported us in our journey. Some prominent companies are ZOHO (My inspiration), Weights and Biases, UNC, UpGrad, and many more. ๐‘๐ž๐ฏ๐ž๐ง๐ฎ๐ž We crossed 580K USD in the last financial year, the highest ever in our history. Being bootstrapped, the only way for us to grow is to put all the money back. Our customers are our investors, as a founder I have hardly taken a paycheck for the last 4+ years, since the team also believes in our vision they are happy not taking a fancy cheque. ๐•๐ข๐ฌ๐ข๐จ๐ง As AI evolves, we want to bring the capabilities of AI to users at the lowest prices possible. Being bootstrapped, the only way to survive is to be frugal and disciplined. ๐‡๐ข๐ซ๐ข๐ง๐  I am proud of our hiring strategy. We hired only freshers to date, and most of our hires do not have a formal degree. They come from rural areas and economically challenged backgrounds. The average age of our new team is 19. They have played an active role in building our V2 of Jarvislabs and improving the product daily. I love to thank everyone for supporting us in our journey. Thanks to Analytics India Magazine, INDIAai, fastai for recognizing us in our early years. If our story resonates with you, Please share our story to inspire others & support our mission. #StartupIndia

Vishnu - Jarvislabs.ai

67,646 views โ€ข 2 years ago

Why is the market selling off today? (Save this). The semi selloff right now is being driven by a mix of macro fear, profit taking and investors questioning how quickly all of this AI spending will actually pay off, not because demand for AI infrastructure suddenly disappeared. The market is basically trading this chain reaction, the ongoing US Iran escalation pushes oil higher, higher oil keeps inflation elevated, sticky inflation keeps Treasury yields high and that increases the risk of the Fed staying hawkish or even hiking again. That is a terrible setup for semis because many of these companies are valued on the massive earnings investors expect them to generate years from now. When yields rise, those future earnings become worth less today which is why the highest multiple AI and semiconductor names usually get hit first. (I don't think there will be a hike this year). This is also why everything is moving together right now. Nvidia, Micron, Nebius, SanDisk, Broadcom and Applied Optoelectronics are all completely different businesses, but institutions are not separating memory, networking, optics, compute and cloud infrastructure at the moment. They are reducing exposure to the entire AI trade, taking profits in the names that have already run the most and moving into a more defensive position potentially ahead of the Fed. There is also growing pressure around hyperscaler capex. Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Google are still spending enormous amounts on GPUs, data centers, networking and power but the market is starting to ask when all of that spending will actually turn into revenue and free cash flow. Investors are no longer satisfied with hearing that AI capex is growing. They want proof that the returns are arriving fast enough to justify the valuations already priced into the entire AI ecosystem. That creates a weird situation where hyperscaler capex can continue rising while semiconductor stocks still fall. The market is not asking whether AI spending is growing anymore but rather asking whether it is growing fast enough to beat the expectations already baked into these stocks. Crowded positioning is another major factor. Semis and AI infrastructure stocks have been some of the biggest winners in the market so institutions are sitting on huge profits and many funds own the exact same names. When macro risk increases, investors usually sell the most liquid winners first. That does not mean demand for memory, optics or custom chips suddenly collapsed but rather means investors are locking in gains and reducing risk. Tariffs add another layer because even when they are not directly placed on chips, they can still raise the cost of servers, electrical equipment, cooling systems, construction materials and the overall data center buildout. That makes AI infrastructure more expensive while also adding another source of inflation. Then you have Jensen Huangโ€™s letter to the White House this morning about open weight AI models, which I think is one of the most important long term developments here. Nvidia, Meta, Microsoft, Palantir and several other companies are pushing Washington not to place broad restrictions on open weight AI. OpenAI and Anthropic were notably absent because open models are much more of a threat to their business models. OpenAI and Anthropic benefit from a world where a few closed frontier labs control the best models and companies have to pay them through subscriptions and APIs. Open weight models weaken that advantage because businesses can download a model, customize it for their own use and run it on their own infrastructure or through a neocloud. That is bad for OpenAI and Anthropic because it puts pressure on pricing, margins and the idea that they will control the intelligence layer of the economy but it is very good for the AI ecosystem as a whole over the long run. But the question is what does this mean for all the OpenAI and Anthropic commitments? so that's adding to the fear as well. But with that being said open models make AI cheaper and more accessible. Instead of AI being controlled by a few giant labs, thousands of startups, universities, governments and regular businesses can deploy models themselves. That spreads AI adoption across the entire economy and creates a much larger infrastructure opportunity and that is exactly why Jensen cares. Nvidia does not need OpenAI or Anthropic to win. Nvidia just needs more people using AI. Whether the model comes from OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta, Mistral, Kimi or some startup nobody has heard of yet, it still needs GPUs, memory, networking, data centers and electricity. So open weight AI could actually weaken the model companies while making the infrastructure layer much bigger. More open models mean more companies running inference. More inference means more GPUs. More GPUs mean more HBM, optical transceivers, switches, data centers and power. That is bullish for Nvidia Nebius, Micron, Broadcom , Marvell and Applied Optoelectronics over the long run. So my take is that the current semi selloff is being driven mostly by macro uncertainty, higher oil, rising yields, Fed fears, tariffs, crowded positioning and questions around the return on hyperscaler capex. The underlying AI infrastructure thesis has not suddenly broken. We are not broadly seeing hyperscalers cancel GPU orders, slash capex, abandon data center projects or report that AI demand has collapsed. What has changed is the valuation investors are willing to pay while the macro environment remains unstable. The market is lowering the price it is willing to pay for semiconductor growth but is not necessarily saying that growth is gone. And while Jensenโ€™s open weight push may be bad for OpenAI and Anthropic, it could be one of the best things possible for the AI ecosystem over the long run because it creates more models, more developers, more competition and ultimately much more demand for the infrastructure underneath all of it. Nothing about the AI thesis has changed for me, so I will be going shopping and taking advantage of this sale while the market is selling everything together. I am an analyst at Milk Road Pro, and if you want to see exactly what I am buying, you can join for just $1 using the link below.
0:11

Why is the market selling off today? (Save this). The semi selloff right now is being driven by a mix of macro fear, profit taking and investors questioning how quickly all of this AI spending will actually pay off, not because demand for AI infrastructure suddenly disappeared. The market is basically trading this chain reaction, the ongoing US Iran escalation pushes oil higher, higher oil keeps inflation elevated, sticky inflation keeps Treasury yields high and that increases the risk of the Fed staying hawkish or even hiking again. That is a terrible setup for semis because many of these companies are valued on the massive earnings investors expect them to generate years from now. When yields rise, those future earnings become worth less today which is why the highest multiple AI and semiconductor names usually get hit first. (I don't think there will be a hike this year). This is also why everything is moving together right now. Nvidia, Micron, Nebius, SanDisk, Broadcom and Applied Optoelectronics are all completely different businesses, but institutions are not separating memory, networking, optics, compute and cloud infrastructure at the moment. They are reducing exposure to the entire AI trade, taking profits in the names that have already run the most and moving into a more defensive position potentially ahead of the Fed. There is also growing pressure around hyperscaler capex. Microsoft, Meta, Amazon and Google are still spending enormous amounts on GPUs, data centers, networking and power but the market is starting to ask when all of that spending will actually turn into revenue and free cash flow. Investors are no longer satisfied with hearing that AI capex is growing. They want proof that the returns are arriving fast enough to justify the valuations already priced into the entire AI ecosystem. That creates a weird situation where hyperscaler capex can continue rising while semiconductor stocks still fall. The market is not asking whether AI spending is growing anymore but rather asking whether it is growing fast enough to beat the expectations already baked into these stocks. Crowded positioning is another major factor. Semis and AI infrastructure stocks have been some of the biggest winners in the market so institutions are sitting on huge profits and many funds own the exact same names. When macro risk increases, investors usually sell the most liquid winners first. That does not mean demand for memory, optics or custom chips suddenly collapsed but rather means investors are locking in gains and reducing risk. Tariffs add another layer because even when they are not directly placed on chips, they can still raise the cost of servers, electrical equipment, cooling systems, construction materials and the overall data center buildout. That makes AI infrastructure more expensive while also adding another source of inflation. Then you have Jensen Huangโ€™s letter to the White House this morning about open weight AI models, which I think is one of the most important long term developments here. Nvidia, Meta, Microsoft, Palantir and several other companies are pushing Washington not to place broad restrictions on open weight AI. OpenAI and Anthropic were notably absent because open models are much more of a threat to their business models. OpenAI and Anthropic benefit from a world where a few closed frontier labs control the best models and companies have to pay them through subscriptions and APIs. Open weight models weaken that advantage because businesses can download a model, customize it for their own use and run it on their own infrastructure or through a neocloud. That is bad for OpenAI and Anthropic because it puts pressure on pricing, margins and the idea that they will control the intelligence layer of the economy but it is very good for the AI ecosystem as a whole over the long run. But the question is what does this mean for all the OpenAI and Anthropic commitments? so that's adding to the fear as well. But with that being said open models make AI cheaper and more accessible. Instead of AI being controlled by a few giant labs, thousands of startups, universities, governments and regular businesses can deploy models themselves. That spreads AI adoption across the entire economy and creates a much larger infrastructure opportunity and that is exactly why Jensen cares. Nvidia does not need OpenAI or Anthropic to win. Nvidia just needs more people using AI. Whether the model comes from OpenAI, Anthropic, Meta, Mistral, Kimi or some startup nobody has heard of yet, it still needs GPUs, memory, networking, data centers and electricity. So open weight AI could actually weaken the model companies while making the infrastructure layer much bigger. More open models mean more companies running inference. More inference means more GPUs. More GPUs mean more HBM, optical transceivers, switches, data centers and power. That is bullish for Nvidia Nebius, Micron, Broadcom , Marvell and Applied Optoelectronics over the long run. So my take is that the current semi selloff is being driven mostly by macro uncertainty, higher oil, rising yields, Fed fears, tariffs, crowded positioning and questions around the return on hyperscaler capex. The underlying AI infrastructure thesis has not suddenly broken. We are not broadly seeing hyperscalers cancel GPU orders, slash capex, abandon data center projects or report that AI demand has collapsed. What has changed is the valuation investors are willing to pay while the macro environment remains unstable. The market is lowering the price it is willing to pay for semiconductor growth but is not necessarily saying that growth is gone. And while Jensenโ€™s open weight push may be bad for OpenAI and Anthropic, it could be one of the best things possible for the AI ecosystem over the long run because it creates more models, more developers, more competition and ultimately much more demand for the infrastructure underneath all of it. Nothing about the AI thesis has changed for me, so I will be going shopping and taking advantage of this sale while the market is selling everything together. I am an analyst at Milk Road Pro, and if you want to see exactly what I am buying, you can join for just $1 using the link below.

Melvin

179,508 views โ€ข 13 days ago

๐Ÿšจ Beijing Rolled Out the Red Carpet for Trump AND Putin in 6 Days. Its Own Investors Just Rolled Out the Exits โ€” ยฅ2 Trillion Gone. ยฅ2 Trillion, that's ยฅ2,000,000,000,000. Twelve zeros. More than the entire annual GDP of Saudi Arabia. Erased in one trading session. Six days ago President Donald Trump left Beijing on Air Force One. Yesterday (May 20, 2026) Vladimir Putin walked down a red carpet into the Great Hall of the People. Today โ€” May 21, 2026 โ€” Chinese investors did something Beijing's propaganda machine cannot spin: they sold. An estimated ยฅ2 trillion (โ‰ˆ US$280 billion) in market value was erased from mainland Chinese equities. The Shanghai Composite slid 2.04% and the Shenzhen Component tumbled 2.07% โ€” both three-week lows. Hong Kong's Hang Seng closed down roughly 1%. The names that bled the hardest are the very ones Xi has been parading as proof of "tech self-reliance": Cambricon -3.19%, Zhongji Innolight -4.21%, Eoptolink -3.74%, Huagong Tech -5.79%. Even CITIC Securities โ€” a mainland brokerage, not a foreign sceptic โ€” noted that the pullback dates from May 14. That is the day Donald Trump landed in Beijing. This is what the market thinks of the past two weeks of choreography. The Trump Summit Beijing Sold as a Triumph The Trumpโ€“Xi summit (May 14โ€“15) was a state-visit spectacle: military honor guards, a banquet at the Great Hall, a personal welcome from Xi. The substance was thinner. Atlantic Council's verdict: a big show with little to show for it. CNN's politics desk was more clinical: nebulous agreements on agricultural purchases, tepid commitments on oil, no firm deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Trump himself said tariffs didn't even come up. Al Jazeera noted something rarer โ€” the two sides released readouts that disagreed on what was actually agreed. The morning after the summit, US stock futures sold off across the board. Investors voted before the pundits did. Beijing's framing: historic visit. The tape's framing: priced in, sold off. The Putin Summit Beijing Sold as Strength One day before today's selloff, Xi gave Putin a red-carpet welcome โ€” their second meeting in under a year. The two leaders presided over a sweeping signing ceremony covering trade, technology, nuclear energy and media cooperation. Xi called the relationship the "highest level in history." A joint statement took aim at Trump's planned "Golden Dome" missile shield. Optics: an axis. Reality: Putin came to Beijing with one big ask โ€” locking in the long-stalled Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline, the project Moscow needs to replace gas sales lost to Europe โ€” and left without it. The Washington Post's headline was blunt: "Putin fails to secure Xi's approval for Power of Siberia 2." Price, financing and timing all remain unresolved, with Beijing reportedly holding out for prices roughly half of what Moscow wanted. Even the marquee deliverable didn't deliver. Why the Tape Doesn't Believe the Narrative Mainland investors aren't watching CCTV. They're watching the data. China just emerged from the longest stretch of producer-price deflation in decades โ€” 41 consecutive months from October 2022 through this past February. The streak only broke in April, and not because demand came back. It broke because the Iran war pushed energy prices higher. That is imported inflation, not organic recovery. Strip out energy and the demand picture remains thin. Goldman Sachs says the property crisis is in its fourth year and not yet at a bottom. Chinese exports to the United States fell nearly 29% year-on-year in November. Youth unemployment officially stood at 16.3% in April; independent analysts argue the real figure is materially higher. Private investment remains weak โ€” Chinese firms aren't short of liquidity, they're cautious on returns, on enforcement consistency, on whether the demand will be there tomorrow. This is the macro that propaganda cannot photoshop. The Neighbourhood: A Quiet Encirclement Look at Asia's tape today against Shanghai's. Tokyo's Nikkei rallied more than 3%, within striking distance of an all-time high set just last week. Seoul's Kospi exploded 8.42% higher โ€” its largest single-session point gain on record, led by Samsung and SK Hynix. In Manila, "Balikatan 2026" just concluded with Japanese combat troops participating in the largest US-Philippines drills for the first time ever. Washington's Indo-Pacific lattice โ€” AUKUS, the Quad, the trilateral USโ€“Japanโ€“Philippines and USโ€“Japanโ€“Korea formats โ€” the architecture Beijing labels an "Asian NATO" โ€” continues to thicken. In Brussels, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has tied future EU-China relations explicitly to how Beijing handles Russia's war on Ukraine. And Xi is reportedly preparing his first visit to North Korea in seven years โ€” a tell about which axis Beijing is doubling down on. Tokyo up. Seoul at a record. Shanghai down. That is not a coincidence. That is a verdict on which side of the new geopolitical fault line global capital believes will compound. Two Trillion Yuan Do Not Lie You cannot propaganda your way past a price chart. State media can stage the Trump welcome as triumph and the Putin embrace as solidarity, but the people who actually have skin in the game โ€” Chinese savers, Chinese funds, the foreign capital still inside the wall โ€” sold into both stories. ยฅ2 trillion in a single session is not a technical wobble. It is a referendum. The Trumpโ€“Xiโ€“Putin theatre is over. The bill is being presented. And Beijing's available responses โ€” tighter capital controls, more "national team" buying, more margin tightening, or a sharper turn toward Moscow and Pyongyang โ€” none of them rebuild confidence. They only manage the optics of its absence. What gets priced in next? Capital controls? A managed devaluation? Another "national team" rescue? Or does the next leg down arrive before the response does? Original article by me Aric Chen. Views are my own โ€” welcome to discuss!
0:13

๐Ÿšจ Beijing Rolled Out the Red Carpet for Trump AND Putin in 6 Days. Its Own Investors Just Rolled Out the Exits โ€” ยฅ2 Trillion Gone. ยฅ2 Trillion, that's ยฅ2,000,000,000,000. Twelve zeros. More than the entire annual GDP of Saudi Arabia. Erased in one trading session. Six days ago President Donald Trump left Beijing on Air Force One. Yesterday (May 20, 2026) Vladimir Putin walked down a red carpet into the Great Hall of the People. Today โ€” May 21, 2026 โ€” Chinese investors did something Beijing's propaganda machine cannot spin: they sold. An estimated ยฅ2 trillion (โ‰ˆ US$280 billion) in market value was erased from mainland Chinese equities. The Shanghai Composite slid 2.04% and the Shenzhen Component tumbled 2.07% โ€” both three-week lows. Hong Kong's Hang Seng closed down roughly 1%. The names that bled the hardest are the very ones Xi has been parading as proof of "tech self-reliance": Cambricon -3.19%, Zhongji Innolight -4.21%, Eoptolink -3.74%, Huagong Tech -5.79%. Even CITIC Securities โ€” a mainland brokerage, not a foreign sceptic โ€” noted that the pullback dates from May 14. That is the day Donald Trump landed in Beijing. This is what the market thinks of the past two weeks of choreography. The Trump Summit Beijing Sold as a Triumph The Trumpโ€“Xi summit (May 14โ€“15) was a state-visit spectacle: military honor guards, a banquet at the Great Hall, a personal welcome from Xi. The substance was thinner. Atlantic Council's verdict: a big show with little to show for it. CNN's politics desk was more clinical: nebulous agreements on agricultural purchases, tepid commitments on oil, no firm deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Trump himself said tariffs didn't even come up. Al Jazeera noted something rarer โ€” the two sides released readouts that disagreed on what was actually agreed. The morning after the summit, US stock futures sold off across the board. Investors voted before the pundits did. Beijing's framing: historic visit. The tape's framing: priced in, sold off. The Putin Summit Beijing Sold as Strength One day before today's selloff, Xi gave Putin a red-carpet welcome โ€” their second meeting in under a year. The two leaders presided over a sweeping signing ceremony covering trade, technology, nuclear energy and media cooperation. Xi called the relationship the "highest level in history." A joint statement took aim at Trump's planned "Golden Dome" missile shield. Optics: an axis. Reality: Putin came to Beijing with one big ask โ€” locking in the long-stalled Power of Siberia 2 gas pipeline, the project Moscow needs to replace gas sales lost to Europe โ€” and left without it. The Washington Post's headline was blunt: "Putin fails to secure Xi's approval for Power of Siberia 2." Price, financing and timing all remain unresolved, with Beijing reportedly holding out for prices roughly half of what Moscow wanted. Even the marquee deliverable didn't deliver. Why the Tape Doesn't Believe the Narrative Mainland investors aren't watching CCTV. They're watching the data. China just emerged from the longest stretch of producer-price deflation in decades โ€” 41 consecutive months from October 2022 through this past February. The streak only broke in April, and not because demand came back. It broke because the Iran war pushed energy prices higher. That is imported inflation, not organic recovery. Strip out energy and the demand picture remains thin. Goldman Sachs says the property crisis is in its fourth year and not yet at a bottom. Chinese exports to the United States fell nearly 29% year-on-year in November. Youth unemployment officially stood at 16.3% in April; independent analysts argue the real figure is materially higher. Private investment remains weak โ€” Chinese firms aren't short of liquidity, they're cautious on returns, on enforcement consistency, on whether the demand will be there tomorrow. This is the macro that propaganda cannot photoshop. The Neighbourhood: A Quiet Encirclement Look at Asia's tape today against Shanghai's. Tokyo's Nikkei rallied more than 3%, within striking distance of an all-time high set just last week. Seoul's Kospi exploded 8.42% higher โ€” its largest single-session point gain on record, led by Samsung and SK Hynix. In Manila, "Balikatan 2026" just concluded with Japanese combat troops participating in the largest US-Philippines drills for the first time ever. Washington's Indo-Pacific lattice โ€” AUKUS, the Quad, the trilateral USโ€“Japanโ€“Philippines and USโ€“Japanโ€“Korea formats โ€” the architecture Beijing labels an "Asian NATO" โ€” continues to thicken. In Brussels, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has tied future EU-China relations explicitly to how Beijing handles Russia's war on Ukraine. And Xi is reportedly preparing his first visit to North Korea in seven years โ€” a tell about which axis Beijing is doubling down on. Tokyo up. Seoul at a record. Shanghai down. That is not a coincidence. That is a verdict on which side of the new geopolitical fault line global capital believes will compound. Two Trillion Yuan Do Not Lie You cannot propaganda your way past a price chart. State media can stage the Trump welcome as triumph and the Putin embrace as solidarity, but the people who actually have skin in the game โ€” Chinese savers, Chinese funds, the foreign capital still inside the wall โ€” sold into both stories. ยฅ2 trillion in a single session is not a technical wobble. It is a referendum. The Trumpโ€“Xiโ€“Putin theatre is over. The bill is being presented. And Beijing's available responses โ€” tighter capital controls, more "national team" buying, more margin tightening, or a sharper turn toward Moscow and Pyongyang โ€” none of them rebuild confidence. They only manage the optics of its absence. What gets priced in next? Capital controls? A managed devaluation? Another "national team" rescue? Or does the next leg down arrive before the response does? Original article by me Aric Chen. Views are my own โ€” welcome to discuss!

Aric Chen

125,275 views โ€ข 2 months ago

DIRECTED ENERGY WEAPONS (DEWs) While typical civilian access to DEW technology is hyper limited, AI gives more insight into the reality of Directed Energy Weapons as used in combat. However, this is not a very comprehensive snapshot of what DEW munitions really are. First, they are not lasers, but rather known as sasers (sound outside of human audible range) that delivers more than just excited photons as per lasers, but envelopes microwave radiation delivered through linear particle accelerators and amplified by square-wave (jackhammer) ultrasonic concussion exceeding 20,000 pulses per second, where each impact doubles in energy through secondary emissions for every pulse. Secondary emissions are created on-the-spot through Neutrino Events that harvests brand-new energy directly out of atmospheric neutrinos, turning them into new ions. Hence why saser beams deliver more energy to the target than anything short of a nuclear blast. DEWs also actively draw energy out of surrounding capacitors at the scene of the target as well as from local sources in the path of the beam. Microwaves excite the electrons within the target structure, such as car batteries and the electric wires inside homes, that causes additional increase in amplitude. Since the energy being siphoned off is focused in the zero point of the beam, that area creates dual opposing twin vortices at zero target forming a hyperbola in the center of the affected area where the energy collapses in on itself, sucking oxygen out of the air which then amplifies the thermal radiation only within that toroidal vortex area, achieving crucible-level temperatures in an open-air setting. This is hyper-accelerated by the coupling of the SBX-1 mobile Vortex generator that delivers oxygen to the strike zone with hyper-focused accuracy at up to 70+ MPH winds. Which is why target zones see hurricane winds out of nowhere and from clear skies without any clouds. DEWs generate temperatures that are vastly higher than normal house or forest fires; 1200F and 1500F respectively. A self-imploding DEW saser strike can generate thermal signatures high enough to burn terracotta roofing tiles (2100F), melt glass (2900F), and vaporize stucco walls that are rated to hold up for 1 HOUR under direct torch flame, rendering it to tiny traces of powder. Even the concrete slab foundations of homes in the Santa Rosa fire of 2017 had been incinerated and literally gone as if evaporated into the air. Since the air surrounding the strike zone becomes immediately depleted, fire will not be readily sustained anywhere outside of the hyperbola area (just the home or automobile), leaving brush, trees, plastic, within just a few feet away barely seared and, in many cases, totally unscathed altogether. Houses that incinerate all the way down to ash within minutes will leave no soot, or flame marks on white-painted homes as little as ten feet away as if there was no heat or fire present of any kind. It is important to note that a normal house fire takes 3-4 hours to burn down, leaving large portions of the home and contents behind unconsumed. DEW crucible vortex fires consumed homes down to nothing but white ash in Santa Rosa, incinerated within 20 minutes that I observed after pounding on doors in one residential neighborhood of 2 story homes at 2:30 in the morning screaming to get out, then returning to that same location less than a half hour later, with nothing left but smoldering ash. There is nothing โ€˜normalโ€™ about DEW remains. Kitchen stoves, pots and pans, washers, dryers, water heaters simply vanished. The cast-iron engines in cars just gone with their aluminum alloy wheels and windows melted on the street. Since DEW sasers work through the delivery of microwaves (that are radioactive) through encapsulation within tachyons (like protective bubbles), the resulting debris fields of target areas are also left contaminated, similar to the aftermath of nuclear detonation sites. The sites where homes once stood in the Santa Rosa fire for instance, had to have the soil under the vaporized concrete slabs excavated and stored in radiation containment casks before any new construction could resume, as reported by locals there that were involved in the cleanup. The Lahaina target homes in Maui are still blocked off with absolutely no entrance for any reason for this same reason almost a year and a half later. DEWs have been seen pulling massive arcs from lightning strikes, obviously generated by the extreme excitation of atmospheric particles of the beam, as well as from overhead electrical wires that supercharge the phonon shafts that are invisible to the naked eye unless backlit from flame or sparks. This technology has been shown to cut full size military ships in half from high altitude delivery systems in seconds, rendering all previous forms of explosive armaments, including nuclear warheads, obsolete. All the military weapons delivered from the US and other countries to Ukraine in recent years were outdated and considered unusable in a genuine modern conflict and were therefore literally being disposed of to make room for other, newer forms of weaponry in armories here at home. In other words, they were merely junk. US dark and black ops have had functioning DEW assault systems in place for many decades already. While AI admits to Turkey using them in combat in 2019, the real date of deployment of DEWs goes back more than just centuries, but prior to humans' arrival to earth in 560m BC. A recent use of DEWs shown here from the Great Chicago Fire of 1871. An even more recent DEW โ€˜Tara Cleansingโ€™ as theyโ€™re called, was the Great San Francisco Fire of 1906 that was blamed on a 7.9 earthquake. And yes, the HAARP SBX-1 hurricane generator is also an earthquake generator as well. None of this is new tech, just new to you. Satellite and antigravity drone delivery of such weapons are entirely remotely-controlled, placing no mil soldiers' lives on the line to mount a siege, making military battlefield loss of life virtually a thing of the past at this time. VIDEO: DEW ATTACK PACIFIC PALISADES 1/8/25 gratis Kyle Zink
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DIRECTED ENERGY WEAPONS (DEWs) While typical civilian access to DEW technology is hyper limited, AI gives more insight into the reality of Directed Energy Weapons as used in combat. However, this is not a very comprehensive snapshot of what DEW munitions really are. First, they are not lasers, but rather known as sasers (sound outside of human audible range) that delivers more than just excited photons as per lasers, but envelopes microwave radiation delivered through linear particle accelerators and amplified by square-wave (jackhammer) ultrasonic concussion exceeding 20,000 pulses per second, where each impact doubles in energy through secondary emissions for every pulse. Secondary emissions are created on-the-spot through Neutrino Events that harvests brand-new energy directly out of atmospheric neutrinos, turning them into new ions. Hence why saser beams deliver more energy to the target than anything short of a nuclear blast. DEWs also actively draw energy out of surrounding capacitors at the scene of the target as well as from local sources in the path of the beam. Microwaves excite the electrons within the target structure, such as car batteries and the electric wires inside homes, that causes additional increase in amplitude. Since the energy being siphoned off is focused in the zero point of the beam, that area creates dual opposing twin vortices at zero target forming a hyperbola in the center of the affected area where the energy collapses in on itself, sucking oxygen out of the air which then amplifies the thermal radiation only within that toroidal vortex area, achieving crucible-level temperatures in an open-air setting. This is hyper-accelerated by the coupling of the SBX-1 mobile Vortex generator that delivers oxygen to the strike zone with hyper-focused accuracy at up to 70+ MPH winds. Which is why target zones see hurricane winds out of nowhere and from clear skies without any clouds. DEWs generate temperatures that are vastly higher than normal house or forest fires; 1200F and 1500F respectively. A self-imploding DEW saser strike can generate thermal signatures high enough to burn terracotta roofing tiles (2100F), melt glass (2900F), and vaporize stucco walls that are rated to hold up for 1 HOUR under direct torch flame, rendering it to tiny traces of powder. Even the concrete slab foundations of homes in the Santa Rosa fire of 2017 had been incinerated and literally gone as if evaporated into the air. Since the air surrounding the strike zone becomes immediately depleted, fire will not be readily sustained anywhere outside of the hyperbola area (just the home or automobile), leaving brush, trees, plastic, within just a few feet away barely seared and, in many cases, totally unscathed altogether. Houses that incinerate all the way down to ash within minutes will leave no soot, or flame marks on white-painted homes as little as ten feet away as if there was no heat or fire present of any kind. It is important to note that a normal house fire takes 3-4 hours to burn down, leaving large portions of the home and contents behind unconsumed. DEW crucible vortex fires consumed homes down to nothing but white ash in Santa Rosa, incinerated within 20 minutes that I observed after pounding on doors in one residential neighborhood of 2 story homes at 2:30 in the morning screaming to get out, then returning to that same location less than a half hour later, with nothing left but smoldering ash. There is nothing โ€˜normalโ€™ about DEW remains. Kitchen stoves, pots and pans, washers, dryers, water heaters simply vanished. The cast-iron engines in cars just gone with their aluminum alloy wheels and windows melted on the street. Since DEW sasers work through the delivery of microwaves (that are radioactive) through encapsulation within tachyons (like protective bubbles), the resulting debris fields of target areas are also left contaminated, similar to the aftermath of nuclear detonation sites. The sites where homes once stood in the Santa Rosa fire for instance, had to have the soil under the vaporized concrete slabs excavated and stored in radiation containment casks before any new construction could resume, as reported by locals there that were involved in the cleanup. The Lahaina target homes in Maui are still blocked off with absolutely no entrance for any reason for this same reason almost a year and a half later. DEWs have been seen pulling massive arcs from lightning strikes, obviously generated by the extreme excitation of atmospheric particles of the beam, as well as from overhead electrical wires that supercharge the phonon shafts that are invisible to the naked eye unless backlit from flame or sparks. This technology has been shown to cut full size military ships in half from high altitude delivery systems in seconds, rendering all previous forms of explosive armaments, including nuclear warheads, obsolete. All the military weapons delivered from the US and other countries to Ukraine in recent years were outdated and considered unusable in a genuine modern conflict and were therefore literally being disposed of to make room for other, newer forms of weaponry in armories here at home. In other words, they were merely junk. US dark and black ops have had functioning DEW assault systems in place for many decades already. While AI admits to Turkey using them in combat in 2019, the real date of deployment of DEWs goes back more than just centuries, but prior to humans' arrival to earth in 560m BC. A recent use of DEWs shown here from the Great Chicago Fire of 1871. An even more recent DEW โ€˜Tara Cleansingโ€™ as theyโ€™re called, was the Great San Francisco Fire of 1906 that was blamed on a 7.9 earthquake. And yes, the HAARP SBX-1 hurricane generator is also an earthquake generator as well. None of this is new tech, just new to you. Satellite and antigravity drone delivery of such weapons are entirely remotely-controlled, placing no mil soldiers' lives on the line to mount a siege, making military battlefield loss of life virtually a thing of the past at this time. VIDEO: DEW ATTACK PACIFIC PALISADES 1/8/25 gratis Kyle Zink

W.R. Schock, QBD

619,589 views โ€ข 1 year ago