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Right now, Dems have a math problem in taking back the Senate. They need a net pickup of 4 seats & lead in 1 GOP held seat (NC). Rest are ties or GOP ahead. Problem is the fundamentals.... Median of key 6 states: GOP with +6 on generic ballot.... show more

(((Harry Enten)))

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408,817 views • 15 days ago •via X (Twitter)

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CNN: Dems have a math problem in taking back the Senate. They need a net pickup of 4 seats & lead in 1 GOP held seat (NC). Rest are ties or GOP ahead. 2026 Senate Polling Margins Ohio: 🔴 R +3 Alaska: 🔴 R +2 Iowa: 🔴 R +2 Texas: 🟡 Tied North Carolina: 🔵 D +7

CNN: Dems have a math problem in taking back the Senate. They need a net pickup of 4 seats & lead in 1 GOP held seat (NC). Rest are ties or GOP ahead. 2026 Senate Polling Margins Ohio: 🔴 R +3 Alaska: 🔴 R +2 Iowa: 🔴 R +2 Texas: 🟡 Tied North Carolina: 🔵 D +7

OSZ

123,831 views • 15 days ago

Unlike in 2006 & 2018 cycles, the GOP actually leads the Dems on net favorability at this point! The national environment suggests GOP holding the Senate. Why? Generic ballot (Dems in a weaker position than 2006 or 2018), Senate map (Dems need pickups in red states) & history.

Unlike in 2006 & 2018 cycles, the GOP actually leads the Dems on net favorability at this point! The national environment suggests GOP holding the Senate. Why? Generic ballot (Dems in a weaker position than 2006 or 2018), Senate map (Dems need pickups in red states) & history.

(((Harry Enten)))

746,015 views • 3 months ago

Big UH-OH for the GOP! Data now show GOP is losing: -Dems' lead is expanding on the generic cong. ballot -Dems are leading on party id, after GOP led in 2024 -Dems are doing very well in special elections Begs the question: Are GOP redistricting efforts cause Dems are winning?

Big UH-OH for the GOP! Data now show GOP is losing: -Dems' lead is expanding on the generic cong. ballot -Dems are leading on party id, after GOP led in 2024 -Dems are doing very well in special elections Begs the question: Are GOP redistricting efforts cause Dems are winning?

(((Harry Enten)))

301,603 views • 11 months ago

Democrats' chance of taking the House in 2026 have plummeted, while GOP chances have skyrocketed over the last 6 months... Why? 1. Dems aren't keeping up with the pace they set in 2017 on the generic ballot. 2. GOP may be looking at big gains from mid-decade redistricting.

Democrats' chance of taking the House in 2026 have plummeted, while GOP chances have skyrocketed over the last 6 months... Why? 1. Dems aren't keeping up with the pace they set in 2017 on the generic ballot. 2. GOP may be looking at big gains from mid-decade redistricting.

(((Harry Enten)))

2,606,818 views • 9 months ago

The 2026 Dem insurgency is a new tea party on steroids. Fewer Dems approve of Dem members of Congress (47%) than the GOP did of GOP members at this pt in 2010 (52%). More Dem House members are going down in primaries (5 so far & likely rising) than all of 2010 for the GOP (2).

The 2026 Dem insurgency is a new tea party on steroids. Fewer Dems approve of Dem members of Congress (47%) than the GOP did of GOP members at this pt in 2010 (52%). More Dem House members are going down in primaries (5 so far & likely rising) than all of 2010 for the GOP (2).

(((Harry Enten)))

73,970 views • 7 days ago

77 million Trump voters, GOP, Elon musk: 1. Trump voters dont hold GOP committees 2. 77 million Trump voters, only 20k in GOP 3. 200,000 vacancies inside GOP 4. Most GOP committees are 80% RINO. 5. GOP Committees hold political power. 6. 2028 After Trump, RINOs bring back Never Trump movement as mainstream 7. Creating a new party is 100 times harder than taking over GOP 8. New Party requires Gathering Physical Signatures in Counties/States & Ballot Access 9. Most States don’t allow ballot access without a mountain of work. 10. Taking over GOP is easier than creating new party. 11. All the above requires work! W-O-R-K! TikTok: christianllamar

77 million Trump voters, GOP, Elon musk: 1. Trump voters dont hold GOP committees 2. 77 million Trump voters, only 20k in GOP 3. 200,000 vacancies inside GOP 4. Most GOP committees are 80% RINO. 5. GOP Committees hold political power. 6. 2028 After Trump, RINOs bring back Never Trump movement as mainstream 7. Creating a new party is 100 times harder than taking over GOP 8. New Party requires Gathering Physical Signatures in Counties/States & Ballot Access 9. Most States don’t allow ballot access without a mountain of work. 10. Taking over GOP is easier than creating new party. 11. All the above requires work! W-O-R-K! TikTok: christianllamar

Christian Lamar

52,192 views • 1 year ago

Stunning polarization trend in views of July 4. In 2001, 68% of GOP & 65% of Dems said they'd display a flag. Now? 64% of GOP say they will vs. 27% of Dems. A day to celebrate the US? 65% of GOP (vs. 23% of Dems). Dems (42%) view it more as a time to be with friends/family.

Stunning polarization trend in views of July 4. In 2001, 68% of GOP & 65% of Dems said they'd display a flag. Now? 64% of GOP say they will vs. 27% of Dems. A day to celebrate the US? 65% of GOP (vs. 23% of Dems). Dems (42%) view it more as a time to be with friends/family.

(((Harry Enten)))

65,334 views • 27 days ago

Reality check: Dems are way behind their 2006 & 2018 pace on the generic ballot at this point in the cycle. Ahead by only 2 pt vs. 7 pt in 2006/2018 cycles. Seat-by-seat analysis actually reveals more GOP pickup opportunities than Dems! Very much unlike 2006 & 2018 at this pt.

Reality check: Dems are way behind their 2006 & 2018 pace on the generic ballot at this point in the cycle. Ahead by only 2 pt vs. 7 pt in 2006/2018 cycles. Seat-by-seat analysis actually reveals more GOP pickup opportunities than Dems! Very much unlike 2006 & 2018 at this pt.

(((Harry Enten)))

801,706 views • 1 year ago

Scott MacFarlane reports a new University of Virginia analysis projects Democrats still gaining roughly 23 House seats in 2026 despite GOP gerrymandering efforts. The report says Republicans likely need to lead or be tied on the generic ballot to keep the House. They are not.

Scott MacFarlane reports a new University of Virginia analysis projects Democrats still gaining roughly 23 House seats in 2026 despite GOP gerrymandering efforts. The report says Republicans likely need to lead or be tied on the generic ballot to keep the House. They are not.

MeidasTouch

114,321 views • 1 month ago

Trump & GOP have a big freaking problem! Milestone: Trump's net approval has now been underwater for a year. He has the worst net approval with indies at this pt in term 2 of any prez this century. The effect: Dems have a very real chance of winning the Senate, not just House.

Trump & GOP have a big freaking problem! Milestone: Trump's net approval has now been underwater for a year. He has the worst net approval with indies at this pt in term 2 of any prez this century. The effect: Dems have a very real chance of winning the Senate, not just House.

(((Harry Enten)))

157,054 views • 4 months ago

On NEWSMAX American Agenda, I said Republicans could gain 3+ seats through redistricting— But after reviewing the map post-show, the real potential is a GOP pickup of 13–15 seats by 2026. That’s enough to sideline the Democrats for a while—and it’s exactly why Texas Democrats are fleeing the state to block a quorum. Republicans are eyeing mid-decade redistricting in key states: 🔴 Texas: +5 seats 🔴 Florida: +3–4 seats 🔴 Ohio: +2–3 seats 🔴 Missouri: +1 seat 🔴 Indiana: +1 seat 🔴 New Hampshire: +1 seat 🔴 Kansas: +1 seat 🔴 Kentucky: +1 seat If Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act is repealed or weakened: 🔴 Louisiana: +2 seats 🔴 Alabama: +2 seats 🔴 Georgia: +1 seat 🔴 South Carolina: +1 seat 🔴 North Carolina: +1 seat 🔴 Mississippi: +1 seat Total potential GOP gain: 13–15 seats — or up to 23 if VRA changes hold. Ongoing litigation in GA, LA, TN, AL, NC, SC, UT, and WI could also force redrawing. The map is shifting—and Republicans are playing to win. #Redistricting #GOP #HouseMajority

On NEWSMAX American Agenda, I said Republicans could gain 3+ seats through redistricting— But after reviewing the map post-show, the real potential is a GOP pickup of 13–15 seats by 2026. That’s enough to sideline the Democrats for a while—and it’s exactly why Texas Democrats are fleeing the state to block a quorum. Republicans are eyeing mid-decade redistricting in key states: 🔴 Texas: +5 seats 🔴 Florida: +3–4 seats 🔴 Ohio: +2–3 seats 🔴 Missouri: +1 seat 🔴 Indiana: +1 seat 🔴 New Hampshire: +1 seat 🔴 Kansas: +1 seat 🔴 Kentucky: +1 seat If Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act is repealed or weakened: 🔴 Louisiana: +2 seats 🔴 Alabama: +2 seats 🔴 Georgia: +1 seat 🔴 South Carolina: +1 seat 🔴 North Carolina: +1 seat 🔴 Mississippi: +1 seat Total potential GOP gain: 13–15 seats — or up to 23 if VRA changes hold. Ongoing litigation in GA, LA, TN, AL, NC, SC, UT, and WI could also force redrawing. The map is shifting—and Republicans are playing to win. #Redistricting #GOP #HouseMajority

Angie Wong

56,561 views • 11 months ago

Re: party registration, the Dem brand has about the same appeal with the American voter right now as the Cracker Barrel rebrand does with the American consumer. Bad, Bad, Bad. GOP is in its best position in the 4 key swing states with party reg (AZ, NV, NC & PA) in 20+ years.

(((Harry Enten)))

197,060 views • 10 months ago

The Socialist Dems want to steal 4 GOP seats. 2 of them have a C or lower in our ratings. It’s shows that VA has political diversity not left wing orthodoxy. Minority right matter

The Socialist Dems want to steal 4 GOP seats. 2 of them have a C or lower in our ratings. It’s shows that VA has political diversity not left wing orthodoxy. Minority right matter

Matt Schlapp

17,120 views • 3 months ago

The GOP has a depression problem heading into the midterms. Their motivation to vote in 2026 is down 17 pts from 2024. Dem enthusiasm is actually up vs. 2024. The result? The Dem lead on the generic ballot rises from 5 pts overall to 16 pts among those extremely motivated.

The GOP has a depression problem heading into the midterms. Their motivation to vote in 2026 is down 17 pts from 2024. Dem enthusiasm is actually up vs. 2024. The result? The Dem lead on the generic ballot rises from 5 pts overall to 16 pts among those extremely motivated.

(((Harry Enten)))

214,001 views • 5 months ago

Cong Dems now have a -55 net approval, an all-time low & lower than the Dead Sea. 2 causes: Dems gives them a -6 pt net approval(!), & they're at -61 pts with indies! The effect? Dems lead on the generic ballot is less than half of what it was at this pt in the 06 & 18 cycles.

Cong Dems now have a -55 net approval, an all-time low & lower than the Dead Sea. 2 causes: Dems gives them a -6 pt net approval(!), & they're at -61 pts with indies! The effect? Dems lead on the generic ballot is less than half of what it was at this pt in the 06 & 18 cycles.

(((Harry Enten)))

456,994 views • 7 months ago

Trump's absolutely collapsing with GOP leaning independents per WaPo & Pew polls. He got ~91% of their vote in 2024. Just 53% approve now. That 53% is down too from 73% approval he had with them in term 1 at this point. House GOP struggling too on 2026 House ballot with them

Trump's absolutely collapsing with GOP leaning independents per WaPo & Pew polls. He got ~91% of their vote in 2024. Just 53% approve now. That 53% is down too from 73% approval he had with them in term 1 at this point. House GOP struggling too on 2026 House ballot with them

(((Harry Enten)))

430,918 views • 2 months ago

For decades, polls showed Dems had a double-digit edge on the party who looked out for/was the party of the middle class. Polls now show the GOP/Trump have totally eliminated that gap. This comes as the GOP maintains a ~10 pt lead on the economy, after 4 months of Trump.

For decades, polls showed Dems had a double-digit edge on the party who looked out for/was the party of the middle class. Polls now show the GOP/Trump have totally eliminated that gap. This comes as the GOP maintains a ~10 pt lead on the economy, after 4 months of Trump.

(((Harry Enten)))

315,363 views • 1 year ago

On pure politics, it's clear that Dems won the shutdown. -Trump's approval is at 2nd term lows -Dems' generic ballot lead has expanded -ACA subsidies still have a 50%+ chance of extension -If they aren't, Dems can use issue as political cudgel over GOP. 70% support extension

On pure politics, it's clear that Dems won the shutdown. -Trump's approval is at 2nd term lows -Dems' generic ballot lead has expanded -ACA subsidies still have a 50%+ chance of extension -If they aren't, Dems can use issue as political cudgel over GOP. 70% support extension

(((Harry Enten)))

258,513 views • 7 months ago

This one surprised me a bit, but Americans say Democrats cannot hack it on foreign policy. The GOP holds a 6 pt lead in July on who is more trusted. The same as Trump's lead over Harris in 2024. Also, net approval of the U.S. airstrikes on Iran has risen & is now at a +2 pt.

This one surprised me a bit, but Americans say Democrats cannot hack it on foreign policy. The GOP holds a 6 pt lead in July on who is more trusted. The same as Trump's lead over Harris in 2024. Also, net approval of the U.S. airstrikes on Iran has risen & is now at a +2 pt.

(((Harry Enten)))

187,063 views • 11 months ago

Big state polling is showing a huge rebound for Dems in NY & CA (where there are plenty of GOP House seats) from 2024. Meanwhile, in TX, House polling shows a double-digit gain for Dems from the 2024 baseline. Overall: chance of a Dem landslide in 2026 is increasing.

Big state polling is showing a huge rebound for Dems in NY & CA (where there are plenty of GOP House seats) from 2024. Meanwhile, in TX, House polling shows a double-digit gain for Dems from the 2024 baseline. Overall: chance of a Dem landslide in 2026 is increasing.

(((Harry Enten)))

353,749 views • 5 months ago