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Right now, ETH is being valued mostly by transaction fees.” There's an assumption “Bitcoin has already won store of value.” That framing misses the real upside. Michael McGuiness on Bankless with Vivek Raman from Etherealize: “The core argument of Productive Money is that ETH is actually better money than...

49,269 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад •via X (Twitter)

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The $250,000 ETH Productive Money Price Target Explained "You just have to look at the monetary premium that currently exists in gold and Bitcoin. If ETH is better money than gold and Bitcoin, it should capture the monetary premium of those two assets. Today gold has a market cap of ~$30 trillion and Bitcoin has a market cap of ~$1.5 trillion. If you divide that by 121 million ETH, you get a price somewhere between $250,000 and $300,000." Michael McGuiness continues: "I view Bitcoin and gold as the rough TAMs for scarce assets without counterparty risk. That's what gold is and that's what Bitcoin is... and I actually think that could end up being low because it doesn't include other TAMs like the broader money supply -- M2 is ~$22 trillion. There's a monetary premium in asset classes like luxury real estate -- you're not buying an apartment in NYC for the cap rate; it's more of a store of value. If the world converged on ETH as its store of value, it might win that monetary premium as well." Vivek Raman adds: "It sounds audacious but Ethereum is audacious. It's a new technology and people need to start thinking in exponentials... Institutional investors are starting to realize too that it's not just a discounted cash flow model -- Ethereum is not a software company. It's going for money. The repricing from an asset that's not well-understood yet to a productive money that's the global reserve asset is not something that's going to stop at a 10x... And that's what the opportunity is. There aren't many assets out there that have an intrinsic value floor with actual fundamental value plus a monetary premium -- and you have the ability to capture the growth of an entire network that's kind of like owning a piece of the Internet early on. That's what ETH is. It's one of the greatest assets I've ever seen." Mike adds: "I know the number can sound crazy on the surface, but one sanity check I like to do is: there's ~60 million millionaires and there's ~121 million ETH. If every millionaire globally tried to buy some ETH, they'd each be able to own ~2. Obviously there are people out there who own a lot more than 2 ETH, so it'd be less than that. So that's another way of thinking about these few-hundred-thousand-dollar price targets. I used to think about Bitcoin the same way. It's just a nice sanity check: If this is the global reserve asset and the world converges on it, and everyone tries to buy it, how much is left to go around?" Read the full report and watch the full The Edge Podcast interview with Vivek Raman and Michael McGuiness in the links below.

Etherealize

171,344 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

"I used to be a bitcoiner. The transition to a new store of value only happens once every 3,000 years. That's the main prize -- just focus on that. But [security] is the criteria that ultimately convinced me to flip from Bitcoin to ETH." "I have a higher degree of certainty that Ethereum will be around longer [than Bitcoin]. The reason for that is because Bitcoin relies on proof-of-work, which is less efficient than proof-of-stake and doesn't scale with the value of the network. And as the block subsidy of Bitcoin halves every four years, it is increasingly becoming more and more reliant on transaction fees to fund the security budget paid to miners." "If you look at [Bitcoin's] security budget right now, about 0.6% of revenue to miners is transaction fees... The problem with that is if Bitcoin becomes 'digital gold', flips gold, and becomes a $30 trillion asset, but it only costs $10-20 billion to attack it, that's too asymmetric." "You want the security budget to scale with the market cap, similar to how countries spend a % of their GDP on defense. The more valuable something is, the more you need to spend to protect it." "Ethereum, with the Merge, migrated to proof-of-stake, which is fundamentally more secure because it's less reliant on transaction fees and it scales with the value of the network. If 1/3rd of ETH is staked and then you need 1/3rd of those ETH to censor the network, you're looking at roughly 10% of the total market cap as the cost to attack the network." "So if Ethereum flips Bitcoin and gold and becomes a $30 trillion asset, it'll cost ~$3 trillion to attack the Ethereum network versus Bitcoin at like $10 billion." "The other aspect here is that as AI hyperscalers invest more and more in AI, proof-of-work becomes increasingly vulnerable because the cost to attack the Bitcoin network is starting to look close to the quarterly CapEx these hyperscalers are spending on their data centers." Full interview on Bankless with Vivek Raman discussing the new Etherealize "Productive Money" report below.

Michael McGuiness

120,514 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад