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SAM ALTMAN IS PULLING OFF THE BIGGEST THEFT IN TECH HISTORY And his $100B Nvidia deal just collapsed because Jensen Huang caught on to his schemes. IT'S OVER FOR OPENAI But he's STILL trying to raise another $100B+ from Amazon, SoftBank, and sovereign wealth funds. The largest private VC...

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George Noble

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590,436 次观看 • 6 个月前 •via X (Twitter)

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OpenAI entered 2026 with the most insane revenue targets in corporate history. $30 billion in sales. Up from $13 billion in 2025. While LOSING $14 billion doing it. Let's understand this: OpenAI needed to convert from nonprofit to for-profit by December 31st, 2025 to unlock their $40 billion SoftBank funding. Miss that deadline? The round drops to $20 billion. And they made it. But here's the thing: The nonprofit STILL controls everything. They spent an entire year fighting to become for-profit, got sued by Elon Musk, pissed off California's attorney general, lost key employees over it. Then ended up basically right where they started. Except now the nonprofit has a $130 billion stake and Microsoft got $135 billion for 27% ownership. So OpenAI burned a year of political capital to give away $265 billion in equity while keeping the same power structure that almost destroyed them in 2023. The revenue math is absolutely deranged: To hit $30 billion in 2026, they need to more than double revenue in 12 months. No company in history has done this from a $13 billion base. Not even Nvidia. Not even ByteDance. OpenAI wants to go from $10B to $100B in 3 years. And the losses are worse: $14 billion in losses in 2026. Triple their 2025 burn. They've committed to: - $250 billion to Microsoft Azure - $38 billion to Amazon AWS - $1+ trillion in chip deals with Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom They won't be profitable until 2029. Maybe. But here's the part that makes this whole thing insane... They're not just competing anymore. Anthropic: Fully for-profit. On track for $15 billion revenue in 2026. AI insiders surveyed in December said they'd invest in Anthropic over OpenAI. Meta's pouring billions into Llama. Chinese models eating market share. And OpenAI still has to answer to a nonprofit board that can shut down AGI research whenever they decide it's not "benefiting humanity." The same board that fired Sam Altman in November 2023. The investors know this. That's why the $40B was contingent on conversion. When OpenAI reversed course and kept nonprofit control, they had to give the nonprofit a $130B stake. Basically: "You can keep control, but you better make us whole." What happens if they miss targets? The Azure commitment becomes a liability. The AWS deal gets renegotiated. The nonprofit board starts asking why they're burning billions while people die of preventable diseases. Investors start wondering if that $300B valuation was justified. OpenAI is betting they can: 1. More than double revenue annually for 3 years straight 2. Burn $44 billion doing it 3. Keep a nonprofit board happy 4. Fend off Anthropic, Meta, and Chinese competitors 5. Avoid another Sam Altman situation 6. Actually build AGI 7. Convince everyone it was worth it Nobody in history has pulled this off. We're 1 day into 2026. By December 31st, we'll know if OpenAI is the most ambitious company ever built or the biggest AI bubble in history. What are you betting on?
1:28

OpenAI entered 2026 with the most insane revenue targets in corporate history. $30 billion in sales. Up from $13 billion in 2025. While LOSING $14 billion doing it. Let's understand this: OpenAI needed to convert from nonprofit to for-profit by December 31st, 2025 to unlock their $40 billion SoftBank funding. Miss that deadline? The round drops to $20 billion. And they made it. But here's the thing: The nonprofit STILL controls everything. They spent an entire year fighting to become for-profit, got sued by Elon Musk, pissed off California's attorney general, lost key employees over it. Then ended up basically right where they started. Except now the nonprofit has a $130 billion stake and Microsoft got $135 billion for 27% ownership. So OpenAI burned a year of political capital to give away $265 billion in equity while keeping the same power structure that almost destroyed them in 2023. The revenue math is absolutely deranged: To hit $30 billion in 2026, they need to more than double revenue in 12 months. No company in history has done this from a $13 billion base. Not even Nvidia. Not even ByteDance. OpenAI wants to go from $10B to $100B in 3 years. And the losses are worse: $14 billion in losses in 2026. Triple their 2025 burn. They've committed to: - $250 billion to Microsoft Azure - $38 billion to Amazon AWS - $1+ trillion in chip deals with Nvidia, AMD, and Broadcom They won't be profitable until 2029. Maybe. But here's the part that makes this whole thing insane... They're not just competing anymore. Anthropic: Fully for-profit. On track for $15 billion revenue in 2026. AI insiders surveyed in December said they'd invest in Anthropic over OpenAI. Meta's pouring billions into Llama. Chinese models eating market share. And OpenAI still has to answer to a nonprofit board that can shut down AGI research whenever they decide it's not "benefiting humanity." The same board that fired Sam Altman in November 2023. The investors know this. That's why the $40B was contingent on conversion. When OpenAI reversed course and kept nonprofit control, they had to give the nonprofit a $130B stake. Basically: "You can keep control, but you better make us whole." What happens if they miss targets? The Azure commitment becomes a liability. The AWS deal gets renegotiated. The nonprofit board starts asking why they're burning billions while people die of preventable diseases. Investors start wondering if that $300B valuation was justified. OpenAI is betting they can: 1. More than double revenue annually for 3 years straight 2. Burn $44 billion doing it 3. Keep a nonprofit board happy 4. Fend off Anthropic, Meta, and Chinese competitors 5. Avoid another Sam Altman situation 6. Actually build AGI 7. Convince everyone it was worth it Nobody in history has pulled this off. We're 1 day into 2026. By December 31st, we'll know if OpenAI is the most ambitious company ever built or the biggest AI bubble in history. What are you betting on?

Ricardo

97,607 次观看 • 7 个月前

In 45 years on Wall Street, I've never seen anything like this. Sam Altman just convinced 3 of the world's smartest investors to fund his losses. $110 billion. But ZERO profit in sight. The largest private funding round in history. Let me explain why this is borderline criminal & what you have to understand as an investor: Amazon. Nvidia. SoftBank. 3 of the world's most sophisticated investors just handed OpenAI $110 billion at an $840 billion valuation. That's more than double the $40 billion OpenAI raised last year. For context: all US venture capital combined invested $170 billion into American startups in all of 2023. Altman just raised 65% of that. Alone. In one round. And the company STILL isn't profitable. Let's look at the actual numbers: OpenAI burned $8 billion in 2025. They project burning $17 billion in 2026. $35 billion in 2027. $47 billion in 2028. Cumulative losses before any projected path to profitability: over $115 billion. Meanwhile, Amazon's $50 billion comes with strings attached. $35 billion is contingent on OpenAI either achieving AGI or completing its IPO by year end. Read that again. $35 billion is conditioned on ACHIEVING AGI. They're literally writing checks against a scientific breakthrough that may not happen on any predictable timeline. This is what peak cycle financing looks like. The circular logic every investor should understand: Amazon invests $50 billion in OpenAI. OpenAI commits to spending $100 billion on Amazon Web Services. Nvidia invests $30 billion. OpenAI commits to buying 3 gigawatts of Nvidia compute. These aren't arms-length investments. They're vendor financing dressed up as venture capital. Amazon and Nvidia are essentially paying OpenAI to buy their own products. The $840 billion valuation prices in a future that doesn't exist yet. At $13 billion in 2025 revenue, that's 65x revenue. Even in 2021 - the most speculative bubble in recent tech history - Snowflake peaked at 50-80x revenue. And Snowflake was actually profitable. J.P. Morgan calculates that the AI industry needs $650 billion in annual revenue just to generate a 10% return on total infrastructure buildout. The entire industry currently generates a fraction of that. I've seen cycles my entire 45-year career. The 1980s defense build-up. The dot-com bubble. The 2008 mortgage machine. The pattern is always the same: When the biggest players start financing each other's growth through circular investment structures, you're not witnessing a revolution... You're watching the LAST PHASE of a credit cycle. Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said OpenAI is going to be "one of the very big winners long term." Maybe. But $840 billion assumes they've already won. Stock prices follow earnings. Always have. Always will. And right now, OpenAI's earnings are deeply, structurally, massively negative. The IPO is coming. The hype will peak. And the question every serious investor needs to answer is simple: At what price does this actually make sense? Sam Altman doesn’t know either - he just keeps raising money faster than he can burn it. This can’t end well.
1:14

In 45 years on Wall Street, I've never seen anything like this. Sam Altman just convinced 3 of the world's smartest investors to fund his losses. $110 billion. But ZERO profit in sight. The largest private funding round in history. Let me explain why this is borderline criminal & what you have to understand as an investor: Amazon. Nvidia. SoftBank. 3 of the world's most sophisticated investors just handed OpenAI $110 billion at an $840 billion valuation. That's more than double the $40 billion OpenAI raised last year. For context: all US venture capital combined invested $170 billion into American startups in all of 2023. Altman just raised 65% of that. Alone. In one round. And the company STILL isn't profitable. Let's look at the actual numbers: OpenAI burned $8 billion in 2025. They project burning $17 billion in 2026. $35 billion in 2027. $47 billion in 2028. Cumulative losses before any projected path to profitability: over $115 billion. Meanwhile, Amazon's $50 billion comes with strings attached. $35 billion is contingent on OpenAI either achieving AGI or completing its IPO by year end. Read that again. $35 billion is conditioned on ACHIEVING AGI. They're literally writing checks against a scientific breakthrough that may not happen on any predictable timeline. This is what peak cycle financing looks like. The circular logic every investor should understand: Amazon invests $50 billion in OpenAI. OpenAI commits to spending $100 billion on Amazon Web Services. Nvidia invests $30 billion. OpenAI commits to buying 3 gigawatts of Nvidia compute. These aren't arms-length investments. They're vendor financing dressed up as venture capital. Amazon and Nvidia are essentially paying OpenAI to buy their own products. The $840 billion valuation prices in a future that doesn't exist yet. At $13 billion in 2025 revenue, that's 65x revenue. Even in 2021 - the most speculative bubble in recent tech history - Snowflake peaked at 50-80x revenue. And Snowflake was actually profitable. J.P. Morgan calculates that the AI industry needs $650 billion in annual revenue just to generate a 10% return on total infrastructure buildout. The entire industry currently generates a fraction of that. I've seen cycles my entire 45-year career. The 1980s defense build-up. The dot-com bubble. The 2008 mortgage machine. The pattern is always the same: When the biggest players start financing each other's growth through circular investment structures, you're not witnessing a revolution... You're watching the LAST PHASE of a credit cycle. Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said OpenAI is going to be "one of the very big winners long term." Maybe. But $840 billion assumes they've already won. Stock prices follow earnings. Always have. Always will. And right now, OpenAI's earnings are deeply, structurally, massively negative. The IPO is coming. The hype will peak. And the question every serious investor needs to answer is simple: At what price does this actually make sense? Sam Altman doesn’t know either - he just keeps raising money faster than he can burn it. This can’t end well.

George Noble

1,197,555 次观看 • 5 个月前

Microsoft is about to sue its own golden child. $14 billion invested. Exclusive cloud rights. The most important AI partnership in history. And Sam Altman just went behind their back with a $50 billion Amazon deal. Here's why they're betraying each other: When Microsoft first invested in OpenAI in 2019, they locked in ONE rule above everything else... ALL access to OpenAI's models must go through Microsoft's Azure cloud. No exceptions. That deal made Azure the backbone of the AI revolution. Every company using ChatGPT's API was paying Microsoft for the privilege. It was the smartest infrastructure play of the decade. Then last month, OpenAI quietly signed a deal with Amazon. $50 billion. AWS becomes the exclusive third-party cloud provider for Frontier, OpenAI's new enterprise AI agent platform. $138 billion committed to Amazon cloud services. Microsoft found out and got really angry.... A person familiar with Microsoft's position told the Financial Times today: "We know our contract. We will sue them if they breach it. If Amazon and OpenAI want to take a bet on the creativity of their contractual lawyers, I would back us, not them." That's basically a declaration of war. And here's where it gets crazy: OpenAI and Amazon are trying to build a technical workaround. A system called the "Stateful Runtime Environment" that runs on Amazon's Bedrock platform. Their argument is that the system "only" handles memory and context for AI agents using enterprise data on AWS. It doesn't technically "invoke" OpenAI's core models through Amazon. Microsoft's response: Bullshit. The workaround violates the spirit of the deal even if it technically dances around the letter. Amazon knows they're on thin ice too. An internal memo leaked showing Amazon told employees exactly what language they can and can't use. They can say Frontier is "powered by OpenAI" or "enabled by OpenAI." But they CANNOT say customers can "access" or "invoke" OpenAI models on AWS. When you're coaching employees on which verbs to avoid, you know you're in trouble. But here's the thing everyone seems to forget: OpenAI is planning an IPO this year. They just closed a $110 billion funding round last month. So if Microsoft sues, the IPO timeline is DEAD. You can't go public while your biggest partner and investor is suing you for breach of contract. Elon Musk is already suing OpenAI separately for abandoning its nonprofit mission. Two active lawsuits from two of the most powerful people in tech. Against one company trying to IPO. Good luck with that S-1 filing. But WHY did Altman do this? Microsoft gave OpenAI everything. Capital. Infrastructure. Distribution. Enterprise customers. And Altman's response was to secretly build an escape route through Amazon... Because he saw what was coming: Microsoft launched Copilot. Their own AI product. Competing directly with ChatGPT. Microsoft started building their own models. Hiring their own AI researchers. Reducing dependency on OpenAI. So Altman did the same thing back. Found another cloud provider. Started building leverage. Both sides were preparing for divorce while still living in the same house. So the $50 billion Amazon deal was just an insurance policy against the day Microsoft decides it doesn't need OpenAI anymore. And Microsoft caught him packing his bags. What happens next: The companies are still talking. Trying to resolve this before Frontier launches. But Microsoft has made their position clear. Litigation is on the table. If this goes to court, it sets a precedent for every AI partnership in the industry. Every cloud deal. Every exclusive licensing agreement. The entire AI infrastructure map gets redrawn. Sam Altman built OpenAI on Microsoft's money, Microsoft's cloud, and Microsoft's trust. Then he signed a $50 billion deal with their biggest competitor. In any other industry they'd call that what it is.
0:28

Microsoft is about to sue its own golden child. $14 billion invested. Exclusive cloud rights. The most important AI partnership in history. And Sam Altman just went behind their back with a $50 billion Amazon deal. Here's why they're betraying each other: When Microsoft first invested in OpenAI in 2019, they locked in ONE rule above everything else... ALL access to OpenAI's models must go through Microsoft's Azure cloud. No exceptions. That deal made Azure the backbone of the AI revolution. Every company using ChatGPT's API was paying Microsoft for the privilege. It was the smartest infrastructure play of the decade. Then last month, OpenAI quietly signed a deal with Amazon. $50 billion. AWS becomes the exclusive third-party cloud provider for Frontier, OpenAI's new enterprise AI agent platform. $138 billion committed to Amazon cloud services. Microsoft found out and got really angry.... A person familiar with Microsoft's position told the Financial Times today: "We know our contract. We will sue them if they breach it. If Amazon and OpenAI want to take a bet on the creativity of their contractual lawyers, I would back us, not them." That's basically a declaration of war. And here's where it gets crazy: OpenAI and Amazon are trying to build a technical workaround. A system called the "Stateful Runtime Environment" that runs on Amazon's Bedrock platform. Their argument is that the system "only" handles memory and context for AI agents using enterprise data on AWS. It doesn't technically "invoke" OpenAI's core models through Amazon. Microsoft's response: Bullshit. The workaround violates the spirit of the deal even if it technically dances around the letter. Amazon knows they're on thin ice too. An internal memo leaked showing Amazon told employees exactly what language they can and can't use. They can say Frontier is "powered by OpenAI" or "enabled by OpenAI." But they CANNOT say customers can "access" or "invoke" OpenAI models on AWS. When you're coaching employees on which verbs to avoid, you know you're in trouble. But here's the thing everyone seems to forget: OpenAI is planning an IPO this year. They just closed a $110 billion funding round last month. So if Microsoft sues, the IPO timeline is DEAD. You can't go public while your biggest partner and investor is suing you for breach of contract. Elon Musk is already suing OpenAI separately for abandoning its nonprofit mission. Two active lawsuits from two of the most powerful people in tech. Against one company trying to IPO. Good luck with that S-1 filing. But WHY did Altman do this? Microsoft gave OpenAI everything. Capital. Infrastructure. Distribution. Enterprise customers. And Altman's response was to secretly build an escape route through Amazon... Because he saw what was coming: Microsoft launched Copilot. Their own AI product. Competing directly with ChatGPT. Microsoft started building their own models. Hiring their own AI researchers. Reducing dependency on OpenAI. So Altman did the same thing back. Found another cloud provider. Started building leverage. Both sides were preparing for divorce while still living in the same house. So the $50 billion Amazon deal was just an insurance policy against the day Microsoft decides it doesn't need OpenAI anymore. And Microsoft caught him packing his bags. What happens next: The companies are still talking. Trying to resolve this before Frontier launches. But Microsoft has made their position clear. Litigation is on the table. If this goes to court, it sets a precedent for every AI partnership in the industry. Every cloud deal. Every exclusive licensing agreement. The entire AI infrastructure map gets redrawn. Sam Altman built OpenAI on Microsoft's money, Microsoft's cloud, and Microsoft's trust. Then he signed a $50 billion deal with their biggest competitor. In any other industry they'd call that what it is.

Ricardo

209,440 次观看 • 4 个月前

Elon Musk on Sam Altman: "I'm not a fan of Sam Altman because if you started a non-profit that was meant to be an open source AI company and it somehow got turned into an 800 billion dollar for-profit company with closed source, I think you'd be like, well, wait a second, that's the exact opposite of what I donated the money for. That's my issue. I think it's a legitimate one. And then Dario, I think, also is not a fan of Sam Altman because he felt, in fact, the reason the Anthropic team left OpenAI is because they didn't trust Sam Altman. Otherwise Anthropic wouldn't exist. They would still be at OpenAI. But at the end of the day, if we have to talk, we'll talk.I mean, set aside our personal differences for the good of the world."
1:25

Elon Musk on Sam Altman: "I'm not a fan of Sam Altman because if you started a non-profit that was meant to be an open source AI company and it somehow got turned into an 800 billion dollar for-profit company with closed source, I think you'd be like, well, wait a second, that's the exact opposite of what I donated the money for. That's my issue. I think it's a legitimate one. And then Dario, I think, also is not a fan of Sam Altman because he felt, in fact, the reason the Anthropic team left OpenAI is because they didn't trust Sam Altman. Otherwise Anthropic wouldn't exist. They would still be at OpenAI. But at the end of the day, if we have to talk, we'll talk.I mean, set aside our personal differences for the good of the world."

DogeDesigner

240,039 次观看 • 22 天前

Elon Musk has just Sued OpenAI, Sam Altman and Greg Brockman over them moving away from being Open Source. Musk States: "OpenAI, Inc. has been transformed into a closed-source de facto subsidiary of the largest technology company in the world: Microsoft. Under its new board, it is not just developing but is actually refining an AGI to maximize profits for Microsoft, rather than for the benefit of humanity." Musk's Claims include: - Breach of contract - Breach of fiduciary duty - Unfair business practices He is requesting that OpenAI 'revert back to open source' and that they do not profit off of their AGI technology. As much as some people attack Musk on issues, I can't help but see this as a positive move for humanity in general. Keep in mind that Musk donated $44 million of his money to OpenAI with their original "founding agreement" in mind. Whether the courts agree with is another story but it will be interesting to follow.
0:43

Elon Musk has just Sued OpenAI, Sam Altman and Greg Brockman over them moving away from being Open Source. Musk States: "OpenAI, Inc. has been transformed into a closed-source de facto subsidiary of the largest technology company in the world: Microsoft. Under its new board, it is not just developing but is actually refining an AGI to maximize profits for Microsoft, rather than for the benefit of humanity." Musk's Claims include: - Breach of contract - Breach of fiduciary duty - Unfair business practices He is requesting that OpenAI 'revert back to open source' and that they do not profit off of their AGI technology. As much as some people attack Musk on issues, I can't help but see this as a positive move for humanity in general. Keep in mind that Musk donated $44 million of his money to OpenAI with their original "founding agreement" in mind. Whether the courts agree with is another story but it will be interesting to follow.

Ed Krassenstein

260,511 次观看 • 2 年前

OpenAI's OWN CFO just admitted they cannot pay their bills. Let me walk you through what just leaked, because the implications are bigger than you'd expect: Sarah Friar, the Chief Financial Officer of OpenAI, has been warning OpenAI's leadership that the company may NOT be able to pay for the computing contracts it has already signed if revenue does not start growing a lot faster than it currently is. Read that sentence again, because it is the single most important thing you'll read about AI infrastructure this year. The person whose actual JOB is signing the checks is telling the people around her that the checks may not clear. Sam Altman and Friar issued a joint statement calling the report "ridiculous" and insisting they're aligned on buying as much compute as possible. Of course they did. Sarah Friar is steering this company into an IPO with a reported $852 billion valuation. The last thing they need 6 months before printing the S-1 is the CFO publicly questioning whether the entire infrastructure thesis is solvent. But the denial doesn't change what WAS reported. And the reported facts are devastating: OpenAI missed its internal target of 1 billion weekly active ChatGPT users by the end of 2025. ChatGPT's share of generative AI web traffic collapsed from 86.7% a year ago to 64.5% in January. In the same window, Google's Gemini rose from 5.7% to 21.5%. They missed MULTIPLE monthly revenue targets earlier this year. They are losing ground to Anthropic in coding and to enterprise customers more broadly. Subscribers are leaving. Now hold that picture in your head and look at what they have committed to spend: Roughly $1.4 TRILLION in data center, GPU, and memory contracts. $300 billion to Oracle. $250 billion to Microsoft. $38 billion to Amazon. $90 billion to AMD. Tens of billions more to Broadcom, CoreWeave, and Nvidia. And Deutsche Bank estimates $143 billion in cumulative negative free cash flow between now and 2029. The CFO is not "worried" because she is conservative by nature. She is worried because she is doing the math. Here's the part the market hasn't yet processed: OpenAI is the marginal buyer for the ENTIRE AI infrastructure complex. - Oracle's $553 billion backlog is more than half OpenAI. - Nvidia's 2027 revenue assumptions lean heavily on OpenAI deployments. - AMD's "$90 billion in cumulative hardware revenue" claim from its OpenAI deal IS the OpenAI deal. - CoreWeave is essentially a leveraged bet on OpenAI's ability to pay. - Broadcom's custom silicon roadmap was built around OpenAI demand. If OpenAI cannot fund the contracts it has signed, every one of those numbers gets re-cut. Every Mag 7 capex slide gets re-cut. Every analyst model that uses "AI infrastructure demand" as a justification for trading the S&P 500 at 26x forward earnings gets re-cut. This is exactly what I've been calling the counterparty risk problem. You can't have a $1.4 trillion supply chain whose ultimate customer expects to LOSE $143 billion before it generates a dollar of free cash flow, and then pretend the suppliers carry no risk. Pre-market this morning told you the market is starting to figure it out: Rambus down. Marvell down. Oracle indicated down 4.5%. Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom under pressure. The chip complex understands that "OpenAI's CFO is worried" is not noise. It is the first crack in the financing structure that the entire AI trade rests on. This is just like the junk bonds in 1989, Telecom in 2000, or Subprime CDOs in 2007. The pattern is always the same: Outside skeptics raise the alarm and get ignored. Then someone inside the building tells the truth and the building empties. Sarah Friar just told the truth. The Mag 7 are literally priced for OpenAI delivering what its OWN CFO says it may not be able to pay for. Below is a video from February of last year - everything is aging TERRIBLY...
1:08

OpenAI's OWN CFO just admitted they cannot pay their bills. Let me walk you through what just leaked, because the implications are bigger than you'd expect: Sarah Friar, the Chief Financial Officer of OpenAI, has been warning OpenAI's leadership that the company may NOT be able to pay for the computing contracts it has already signed if revenue does not start growing a lot faster than it currently is. Read that sentence again, because it is the single most important thing you'll read about AI infrastructure this year. The person whose actual JOB is signing the checks is telling the people around her that the checks may not clear. Sam Altman and Friar issued a joint statement calling the report "ridiculous" and insisting they're aligned on buying as much compute as possible. Of course they did. Sarah Friar is steering this company into an IPO with a reported $852 billion valuation. The last thing they need 6 months before printing the S-1 is the CFO publicly questioning whether the entire infrastructure thesis is solvent. But the denial doesn't change what WAS reported. And the reported facts are devastating: OpenAI missed its internal target of 1 billion weekly active ChatGPT users by the end of 2025. ChatGPT's share of generative AI web traffic collapsed from 86.7% a year ago to 64.5% in January. In the same window, Google's Gemini rose from 5.7% to 21.5%. They missed MULTIPLE monthly revenue targets earlier this year. They are losing ground to Anthropic in coding and to enterprise customers more broadly. Subscribers are leaving. Now hold that picture in your head and look at what they have committed to spend: Roughly $1.4 TRILLION in data center, GPU, and memory contracts. $300 billion to Oracle. $250 billion to Microsoft. $38 billion to Amazon. $90 billion to AMD. Tens of billions more to Broadcom, CoreWeave, and Nvidia. And Deutsche Bank estimates $143 billion in cumulative negative free cash flow between now and 2029. The CFO is not "worried" because she is conservative by nature. She is worried because she is doing the math. Here's the part the market hasn't yet processed: OpenAI is the marginal buyer for the ENTIRE AI infrastructure complex. - Oracle's $553 billion backlog is more than half OpenAI. - Nvidia's 2027 revenue assumptions lean heavily on OpenAI deployments. - AMD's "$90 billion in cumulative hardware revenue" claim from its OpenAI deal IS the OpenAI deal. - CoreWeave is essentially a leveraged bet on OpenAI's ability to pay. - Broadcom's custom silicon roadmap was built around OpenAI demand. If OpenAI cannot fund the contracts it has signed, every one of those numbers gets re-cut. Every Mag 7 capex slide gets re-cut. Every analyst model that uses "AI infrastructure demand" as a justification for trading the S&P 500 at 26x forward earnings gets re-cut. This is exactly what I've been calling the counterparty risk problem. You can't have a $1.4 trillion supply chain whose ultimate customer expects to LOSE $143 billion before it generates a dollar of free cash flow, and then pretend the suppliers carry no risk. Pre-market this morning told you the market is starting to figure it out: Rambus down. Marvell down. Oracle indicated down 4.5%. Nvidia, AMD, Broadcom under pressure. The chip complex understands that "OpenAI's CFO is worried" is not noise. It is the first crack in the financing structure that the entire AI trade rests on. This is just like the junk bonds in 1989, Telecom in 2000, or Subprime CDOs in 2007. The pattern is always the same: Outside skeptics raise the alarm and get ignored. Then someone inside the building tells the truth and the building empties. Sarah Friar just told the truth. The Mag 7 are literally priced for OpenAI delivering what its OWN CFO says it may not be able to pay for. Below is a video from February of last year - everything is aging TERRIBLY...

George Noble

25,935 次观看 • 3 个月前

Sam Altman just dropped the most insane business flex in tech history. OpenAI doing $13 BILLION in revenue this year. Projecting $100 BILLION by 2027. That's a 7.7X in revenue in 2 years. But they also just committed $1.4 TRILLION to infrastructure over 8 years. When a reporter asked "how the fuck are you paying for that?" Sam literally said: "We're doing WELL MORE revenue than reported. If you don't like it, I'll find someone to buy your shares." Then Satya Nadella (Microsoft CEO) just laughed. This is the most aggressive "fuck around and find out" energy I've ever seen from a CEO. OpenAI is literally spending 107X their current revenue on infrastructure. That's not a typo. ONE HUNDRED AND SEVEN TIMES Most cloud companies spend 15-30% of revenue on infrastructure. OpenAI? 10,700%. This is either: The biggest bet in tech history. OR The setup for the most catastrophic collapse since Theranos. And Sam's basically daring short-sellers to try him. "I would LOVE to see them get burned on that." Meanwhile they're losing $12 BILLION per quarter. Microsoft's latest earnings showed a $4 billion charge that implies OpenAI burned through $12B last quarter alone. But Sam doesn't care. He's doubling down. $300 billion deal with Oracle. $100 billion with Nvidia. Tens of billions more with AMD, Broadcom, and AWS. All while the company isn't even profitable. When the podcast host asked if OpenAI could hit $100 billion by 2028 or 2029... Sam cut him off and said: "How about '27?" This man is either: A) The next Elon Musk building the future. B) About to pull off the biggest financial implosion in tech history. There's literally no middle ground here. Either OpenAI becomes a trillion-dollar company. Or it goes down as the most expensive failure ever. And Sam's basically telling everyone who doubts him to short the stock so he can watch them burn...
2:14

Sam Altman just dropped the most insane business flex in tech history. OpenAI doing $13 BILLION in revenue this year. Projecting $100 BILLION by 2027. That's a 7.7X in revenue in 2 years. But they also just committed $1.4 TRILLION to infrastructure over 8 years. When a reporter asked "how the fuck are you paying for that?" Sam literally said: "We're doing WELL MORE revenue than reported. If you don't like it, I'll find someone to buy your shares." Then Satya Nadella (Microsoft CEO) just laughed. This is the most aggressive "fuck around and find out" energy I've ever seen from a CEO. OpenAI is literally spending 107X their current revenue on infrastructure. That's not a typo. ONE HUNDRED AND SEVEN TIMES Most cloud companies spend 15-30% of revenue on infrastructure. OpenAI? 10,700%. This is either: The biggest bet in tech history. OR The setup for the most catastrophic collapse since Theranos. And Sam's basically daring short-sellers to try him. "I would LOVE to see them get burned on that." Meanwhile they're losing $12 BILLION per quarter. Microsoft's latest earnings showed a $4 billion charge that implies OpenAI burned through $12B last quarter alone. But Sam doesn't care. He's doubling down. $300 billion deal with Oracle. $100 billion with Nvidia. Tens of billions more with AMD, Broadcom, and AWS. All while the company isn't even profitable. When the podcast host asked if OpenAI could hit $100 billion by 2028 or 2029... Sam cut him off and said: "How about '27?" This man is either: A) The next Elon Musk building the future. B) About to pull off the biggest financial implosion in tech history. There's literally no middle ground here. Either OpenAI becomes a trillion-dollar company. Or it goes down as the most expensive failure ever. And Sam's basically telling everyone who doubts him to short the stock so he can watch them burn...

Ricardo

429,960 次观看 • 9 个月前

🚨 Do you understand what SCAM ALTMAN has been doing? He made a crypto called Worldcoin that scans your eyeballs with a metal orb in exchange for tokens. The token hit $11.74 in 2024. Today $WLD is $0.28. Down 97%. His foundation dumped $65 million worth last week at $0.27 each. In Kenya they found the project exploiting extreme poverty to get people to scan their eyes for worthless crypto. In Berlin gangs were forcing homeless people and refugees to get scanned so they could pocket the rewards. Thailand raided a site and ordered 1.2 million scans deleted. Spain, Portugal, Hong Kong, Germany all banned or investigating. Snowden warned everyone. They say they delete the scans. They don't. They keep the digital fingerprint of your eyes forever in a privately owned database. In 2015 Elon Musk gave $38 million to co-found OpenAI with Altman. The deal was clear. Keep it nonprofit. Keep it open source. Build AI for humanity. Altman took the money. Turned it into a closed source for-profit company valued at $840 billion. Microsoft got 27%. Musk didn't see a dollar. Musk tried buying it back for $97.4 billion. Altman said on camera "no thank you but we will buy twitter for $9.74 billion." Asked about Musk in an interview he said "his whole life is from a position of insecurity. I don't think he's a happy person." Called the lawsuit "this week's episode." He's also investing in his own chip company that sells chips to OpenAI. Investing in energy companies that power OpenAI. Buying from himself. Musk filed a $134 billion lawsuit. Most people called him jealous. Then his lawyers found the personal diary of Greg Brockman, one of the original OpenAI co-founders. A 2017 entry reads "I cannot believe that we committed to non-profit if three months later we're doing b-corp then it was a lie." He admitted the nonprofit promise was never real. Two years before they officially went for-profit. The judge said there's "ample evidence." Sent it to a jury. Trial starts April 27. Musk said he'll donate every dollar to charity. Altman laughed on camera. Called Musk insecure. Called the lawsuit a joke. His own co-founder's diary says the nonprofit was never real. A jury decides in 28 days. Let's see who's laughing after the verdict.
1:06

🚨 Do you understand what SCAM ALTMAN has been doing? He made a crypto called Worldcoin that scans your eyeballs with a metal orb in exchange for tokens. The token hit $11.74 in 2024. Today $WLD is $0.28. Down 97%. His foundation dumped $65 million worth last week at $0.27 each. In Kenya they found the project exploiting extreme poverty to get people to scan their eyes for worthless crypto. In Berlin gangs were forcing homeless people and refugees to get scanned so they could pocket the rewards. Thailand raided a site and ordered 1.2 million scans deleted. Spain, Portugal, Hong Kong, Germany all banned or investigating. Snowden warned everyone. They say they delete the scans. They don't. They keep the digital fingerprint of your eyes forever in a privately owned database. In 2015 Elon Musk gave $38 million to co-found OpenAI with Altman. The deal was clear. Keep it nonprofit. Keep it open source. Build AI for humanity. Altman took the money. Turned it into a closed source for-profit company valued at $840 billion. Microsoft got 27%. Musk didn't see a dollar. Musk tried buying it back for $97.4 billion. Altman said on camera "no thank you but we will buy twitter for $9.74 billion." Asked about Musk in an interview he said "his whole life is from a position of insecurity. I don't think he's a happy person." Called the lawsuit "this week's episode." He's also investing in his own chip company that sells chips to OpenAI. Investing in energy companies that power OpenAI. Buying from himself. Musk filed a $134 billion lawsuit. Most people called him jealous. Then his lawyers found the personal diary of Greg Brockman, one of the original OpenAI co-founders. A 2017 entry reads "I cannot believe that we committed to non-profit if three months later we're doing b-corp then it was a lie." He admitted the nonprofit promise was never real. Two years before they officially went for-profit. The judge said there's "ample evidence." Sent it to a jury. Trial starts April 27. Musk said he'll donate every dollar to charity. Altman laughed on camera. Called Musk insecure. Called the lawsuit a joke. His own co-founder's diary says the nonprofit was never real. A jury decides in 28 days. Let's see who's laughing after the verdict.

Evan Luthra

823,903 次观看 • 4 个月前

In 19 days, a jury in Oakland is going to decide whether the entire legal foundation of the AI industry is built on fraud. Everyone thinks the Musk vs Altman lawsuit is a billionaire grudge match. Two egos, one grudge, a $150 billion damages number designed for headlines. Easy to dismiss. Easy to scroll past. That's exactly what Altman wants you to think. Because what's actually on trial on April 27 is something much BIGGER than Elon's hurt feelings... A jury is going to decide whether you can legally take billions of dollars in nonprofit donations, use them to build the most valuable technology in human history, and then quietly convert that nonprofit into a for-profit company worth $850 billion. If the answer is no, the entire AI industry has a problem. Because OpenAI is not the only company that did this: Anthropic was founded by OpenAI defectors using the same nonprofit-first mission language. xAI pitches itself as building AI "for humanity." Every frontier lab has used the moral cover of "we're doing this for the good of the world" to attract talent, capital, and regulatory goodwill they would have never gotten otherwise. An Elon win doesn't just touch OpenAI. It creates a legal precedent that every AI company built on a nonprofit or public benefit promise becomes vulnerable to shareholder and donor clawback suits. That's why this case matters. And that's why Altman is panicking. Just look at what he did this week: Elon filed a motion demanding the court remove Altman and Brockman from their roles and FORCE OpenAI to return to its nonprofit origins. Then he amended the suit to say if he wins the $150 billion, all of it goes to OpenAI's charity arm. Not him. Zero dollars to Elon personally. That amendment was surgical. It stripped Altman of his entire public defense. He can no longer claim this is about Elon's ego or Elon's bank account. Elon is now legally on record saying he just wants the mission back. OpenAI's response was to panic-write a letter to the California and Delaware attorneys general asking them to investigate Elon for "anti-competitive behavior." Their strategy chief publicly accused Elon of coordinating attacks with Mark Zuckerberg. They called the lawsuit "harassment driven by ego and jealousy." That's NOT the response of a company that thinks it's going to win. Real companies with real defenses don't ask the government to silence the person suing them 3 weeks before trial. They let the evidence speak. OpenAI is scrambling because they know what's in discovery. Elon's team has been building this case for two years. Emails, board minutes, internal conversations about the conversion. The kind of paper trail that juries understand and executives can't explain away. And the timing couldn't be worse... OpenAI is trying to IPO at $852 billion. They just raised $122 billion. Microsoft has $135 billion of exposure to them. A jury verdict that even partially sides with Elon in late April or May would crater the entire IPO runway and send shockwaves through every major AI investor on Earth. This is why Altman spent the last 2 weeks doing press tours and policy blueprints and "super intelligence agendas" aimed at Washington. He's trying to REFRAME himself as the responsible statesman of AI right before a jury decides if he's a con artist. Most people will watch this trial start and think it's celebrity drama. The smart money is watching it and realizing that the legal foundation of the AI boom is about to be tested in court for the first time EVER. And if that foundation cracks, everything built on top of it is at risk.
1:28

In 19 days, a jury in Oakland is going to decide whether the entire legal foundation of the AI industry is built on fraud. Everyone thinks the Musk vs Altman lawsuit is a billionaire grudge match. Two egos, one grudge, a $150 billion damages number designed for headlines. Easy to dismiss. Easy to scroll past. That's exactly what Altman wants you to think. Because what's actually on trial on April 27 is something much BIGGER than Elon's hurt feelings... A jury is going to decide whether you can legally take billions of dollars in nonprofit donations, use them to build the most valuable technology in human history, and then quietly convert that nonprofit into a for-profit company worth $850 billion. If the answer is no, the entire AI industry has a problem. Because OpenAI is not the only company that did this: Anthropic was founded by OpenAI defectors using the same nonprofit-first mission language. xAI pitches itself as building AI "for humanity." Every frontier lab has used the moral cover of "we're doing this for the good of the world" to attract talent, capital, and regulatory goodwill they would have never gotten otherwise. An Elon win doesn't just touch OpenAI. It creates a legal precedent that every AI company built on a nonprofit or public benefit promise becomes vulnerable to shareholder and donor clawback suits. That's why this case matters. And that's why Altman is panicking. Just look at what he did this week: Elon filed a motion demanding the court remove Altman and Brockman from their roles and FORCE OpenAI to return to its nonprofit origins. Then he amended the suit to say if he wins the $150 billion, all of it goes to OpenAI's charity arm. Not him. Zero dollars to Elon personally. That amendment was surgical. It stripped Altman of his entire public defense. He can no longer claim this is about Elon's ego or Elon's bank account. Elon is now legally on record saying he just wants the mission back. OpenAI's response was to panic-write a letter to the California and Delaware attorneys general asking them to investigate Elon for "anti-competitive behavior." Their strategy chief publicly accused Elon of coordinating attacks with Mark Zuckerberg. They called the lawsuit "harassment driven by ego and jealousy." That's NOT the response of a company that thinks it's going to win. Real companies with real defenses don't ask the government to silence the person suing them 3 weeks before trial. They let the evidence speak. OpenAI is scrambling because they know what's in discovery. Elon's team has been building this case for two years. Emails, board minutes, internal conversations about the conversion. The kind of paper trail that juries understand and executives can't explain away. And the timing couldn't be worse... OpenAI is trying to IPO at $852 billion. They just raised $122 billion. Microsoft has $135 billion of exposure to them. A jury verdict that even partially sides with Elon in late April or May would crater the entire IPO runway and send shockwaves through every major AI investor on Earth. This is why Altman spent the last 2 weeks doing press tours and policy blueprints and "super intelligence agendas" aimed at Washington. He's trying to REFRAME himself as the responsible statesman of AI right before a jury decides if he's a con artist. Most people will watch this trial start and think it's celebrity drama. The smart money is watching it and realizing that the legal foundation of the AI boom is about to be tested in court for the first time EVER. And if that foundation cracks, everything built on top of it is at risk.

Ricardo

27,880,578 次观看 • 4 个月前

MEET THE NVIDIA KILLER: OpenAI bet $10 BILLION on this company that makes chips 20x faster than Nvidia's. If this plays out as expected, it’s over for Nvidia. Cerebras Systems just locked in 750 megawatts of computing power to OpenAI through 2028. For reference: that's equivalent to the annual power consumption of 600,000 US homes. The deal? Over $10 billion. Here's what nobody understands: Cerebras doesn't make normal chips. Nvidia sells you thousands of tiny chips that you connect together. Cerebras makes ONE chip. A single wafer-scale processor the size of a dinner plate. 900,000 AI cores. 4 trillion transistors. All on one piece of silicon. The result? When OpenAI tested it, Cerebras ran inference 20X FASTER than Nvidia GPUs. That's not incremental improvement. That's a different category of performance. But here's where the story gets wild: Four months ago, Cerebras was a struggling company. Their IPO filing revealed that 87% of their revenue came from ONE customer: G42, a UAE-based AI firm. The US government launched a national security review. G42 had ties to Huawei. Ties to China. The IPO collapsed. Investors panicked. Cerebras withdrew their filing in October 2025. Most startups would've been dead. Instead, Cerebras did the opposite. They raised $1.1 billion at an $8.1 billion valuation. Kicked G42 out of the cap table entirely. Got CFIUS clearance. Then landed the OpenAI deal. Now they're raising ANOTHER $1 billion at a $22 billion valuation. They more than DOUBLED their valuation in 4 months. From near-death to $22 billion. While getting rid of their biggest customer. Why OpenAI chose them: ChatGPT has 900 million weekly users. Sam Altman keeps saying they have a "severe shortage" of compute. They need SPEED, not just power. When you ask ChatGPT a question, there's a loop happening: You send request → model thinks → sends response back Nvidia chips are fast at training models. Cerebras chips are built specifically for inference. For real-time responses. For the exact bottleneck OpenAI is trying to solve. Sachin Katti from OpenAI said it best: "Cerebras adds a dedicated low-latency inference solution to our platform. That means faster responses, more natural interactions, and a stronger foundation to scale real-time AI to many more people." In other words: "We need this to scale ChatGPT." The competitive landscape just shifted: Nvidia announced a $100 billion deal with OpenAI in September. But it's still not finalized. Meanwhile, Cerebras closed their deal before Thanksgiving. And it's ALREADY being deployed. Here's the part that should terrify Nvidia: In December, Nvidia bought Groq for $20 billion. Groq makes fast inference chips. Just like Cerebras. So why would Nvidia spend $20 billion buying a competitor to something they supposedly already dominate? Because they know what's coming. Inference is the new battleground. And Cerebras is winning it. The IPO is coming Q2 2026. After this OpenAI deal, Cerebras now has: ✓ IBM contracts ✓ Department of Energy contracts ✓ OpenAI locked in for 3 years ✓ $22 billion valuation ✓ CFIUS clearance ✓ Zero customer concentration risk They went from 87% revenue dependency on one customer to the most diversified chip company outside Nvidia. In four months. The lesson? Smart money doesn't follow headlines. It follows where the AI leaders are actually spending. OpenAI didn't announce this deal for publicity. They need Cerebras hardware to scale ChatGPT. That's a $10 billion vote of confidence. While everyone's watching Nvidia stock, the real war is happening in inference. And the company with ONE giant chip just beat the company with thousands of tiny ones. What do you think happens when Cerebras IPOs?
1:03

MEET THE NVIDIA KILLER: OpenAI bet $10 BILLION on this company that makes chips 20x faster than Nvidia's. If this plays out as expected, it’s over for Nvidia. Cerebras Systems just locked in 750 megawatts of computing power to OpenAI through 2028. For reference: that's equivalent to the annual power consumption of 600,000 US homes. The deal? Over $10 billion. Here's what nobody understands: Cerebras doesn't make normal chips. Nvidia sells you thousands of tiny chips that you connect together. Cerebras makes ONE chip. A single wafer-scale processor the size of a dinner plate. 900,000 AI cores. 4 trillion transistors. All on one piece of silicon. The result? When OpenAI tested it, Cerebras ran inference 20X FASTER than Nvidia GPUs. That's not incremental improvement. That's a different category of performance. But here's where the story gets wild: Four months ago, Cerebras was a struggling company. Their IPO filing revealed that 87% of their revenue came from ONE customer: G42, a UAE-based AI firm. The US government launched a national security review. G42 had ties to Huawei. Ties to China. The IPO collapsed. Investors panicked. Cerebras withdrew their filing in October 2025. Most startups would've been dead. Instead, Cerebras did the opposite. They raised $1.1 billion at an $8.1 billion valuation. Kicked G42 out of the cap table entirely. Got CFIUS clearance. Then landed the OpenAI deal. Now they're raising ANOTHER $1 billion at a $22 billion valuation. They more than DOUBLED their valuation in 4 months. From near-death to $22 billion. While getting rid of their biggest customer. Why OpenAI chose them: ChatGPT has 900 million weekly users. Sam Altman keeps saying they have a "severe shortage" of compute. They need SPEED, not just power. When you ask ChatGPT a question, there's a loop happening: You send request → model thinks → sends response back Nvidia chips are fast at training models. Cerebras chips are built specifically for inference. For real-time responses. For the exact bottleneck OpenAI is trying to solve. Sachin Katti from OpenAI said it best: "Cerebras adds a dedicated low-latency inference solution to our platform. That means faster responses, more natural interactions, and a stronger foundation to scale real-time AI to many more people." In other words: "We need this to scale ChatGPT." The competitive landscape just shifted: Nvidia announced a $100 billion deal with OpenAI in September. But it's still not finalized. Meanwhile, Cerebras closed their deal before Thanksgiving. And it's ALREADY being deployed. Here's the part that should terrify Nvidia: In December, Nvidia bought Groq for $20 billion. Groq makes fast inference chips. Just like Cerebras. So why would Nvidia spend $20 billion buying a competitor to something they supposedly already dominate? Because they know what's coming. Inference is the new battleground. And Cerebras is winning it. The IPO is coming Q2 2026. After this OpenAI deal, Cerebras now has: ✓ IBM contracts ✓ Department of Energy contracts ✓ OpenAI locked in for 3 years ✓ $22 billion valuation ✓ CFIUS clearance ✓ Zero customer concentration risk They went from 87% revenue dependency on one customer to the most diversified chip company outside Nvidia. In four months. The lesson? Smart money doesn't follow headlines. It follows where the AI leaders are actually spending. OpenAI didn't announce this deal for publicity. They need Cerebras hardware to scale ChatGPT. That's a $10 billion vote of confidence. While everyone's watching Nvidia stock, the real war is happening in inference. And the company with ONE giant chip just beat the company with thousands of tiny ones. What do you think happens when Cerebras IPOs?

Ricardo

28,088 次观看 • 6 个月前

OpenAI just created a $10 billion company whose ONLY job is forcing businesses to use AI. And they're literally guaranteeing investors a 17.5% annual return to make it happen. It's called "The Deployment Company." OpenAI finalized it yesterday with 19 investors including TPG, SoftBank, Bain Capital, Brookfield, and Advent International. Here's the structure: OpenAI puts in $1.5 billion. The private equity firms put in $4 billion. In exchange, those PE firms open up their 2,000+ portfolio companies as a CAPTIVE customer base for OpenAI's products. OpenAI then embeds teams of engineers directly inside those companies, Palantir-style, to integrate their tools into daily operations. And here's the big red flag in all of this: OpenAI is GUARANTEEING those PE firms a 17.5% annual return over five years. That means even if the companies in the portfolio don't want AI, don't need AI, or get zero value from AI, OpenAI is still on the hook to pay those returns. Think about what that means for a second. OpenAI is so desperate for enterprise adoption that they're paying Wall Street to force their product into thousands of businesses. They've essentially turned private equity firms into a distribution cartel with a guaranteed commission. This has NEVER been done before in enterprise software. No software company in history has guaranteed above-market returns to financial sponsors just to get their product installed. And it gets crazier: Within MINUTES of OpenAI's announcement, Anthropic announced their own version. A $1.5 billion joint venture with Blackstone, Goldman Sachs, and Hellman & Friedman. Same playbook. Two companies worth a combined $1+ TRILLION in private valuation both concluded on the same day that organic demand for their products is not growing fast enough. If enterprises were lining up to buy AI on their own, you wouldn't need to bribe private equity firms with guaranteed returns to shove it into their portfolios. You would just sell it normally like every other software company in history. But they can't. Because the gap between what AI companies PROMISE and what enterprises actually experience is still enormous. OpenAI's COO Brad Lightcap just moved into a new role specifically to lead this push. They've also signed "Frontier Alliances" with major consulting firms to embed AI through professional services channels. Every move they're making screams the same thing: We have a demand problem. And this is all happening right before OpenAI tries to IPO at $850 billion. If they can show Wall Street that 2,000+ companies are "using OpenAI products" through this PE distribution channel, it inflates their enterprise metrics right before the roadshow. Doesn't matter if those companies actually need it or if it creates real value. What matters is the number on the S-1. This is the AI playbook entering its most dangerous phase. The tech is real but the business model is being held together by financial engineering, guaranteed returns, and captive distribution deals that look more like a pharmaceutical company paying doctors to prescribe their drug than a software company earning customers on merit. And both OpenAI and Anthropic admitted it on the same day.
0:54

OpenAI just created a $10 billion company whose ONLY job is forcing businesses to use AI. And they're literally guaranteeing investors a 17.5% annual return to make it happen. It's called "The Deployment Company." OpenAI finalized it yesterday with 19 investors including TPG, SoftBank, Bain Capital, Brookfield, and Advent International. Here's the structure: OpenAI puts in $1.5 billion. The private equity firms put in $4 billion. In exchange, those PE firms open up their 2,000+ portfolio companies as a CAPTIVE customer base for OpenAI's products. OpenAI then embeds teams of engineers directly inside those companies, Palantir-style, to integrate their tools into daily operations. And here's the big red flag in all of this: OpenAI is GUARANTEEING those PE firms a 17.5% annual return over five years. That means even if the companies in the portfolio don't want AI, don't need AI, or get zero value from AI, OpenAI is still on the hook to pay those returns. Think about what that means for a second. OpenAI is so desperate for enterprise adoption that they're paying Wall Street to force their product into thousands of businesses. They've essentially turned private equity firms into a distribution cartel with a guaranteed commission. This has NEVER been done before in enterprise software. No software company in history has guaranteed above-market returns to financial sponsors just to get their product installed. And it gets crazier: Within MINUTES of OpenAI's announcement, Anthropic announced their own version. A $1.5 billion joint venture with Blackstone, Goldman Sachs, and Hellman & Friedman. Same playbook. Two companies worth a combined $1+ TRILLION in private valuation both concluded on the same day that organic demand for their products is not growing fast enough. If enterprises were lining up to buy AI on their own, you wouldn't need to bribe private equity firms with guaranteed returns to shove it into their portfolios. You would just sell it normally like every other software company in history. But they can't. Because the gap between what AI companies PROMISE and what enterprises actually experience is still enormous. OpenAI's COO Brad Lightcap just moved into a new role specifically to lead this push. They've also signed "Frontier Alliances" with major consulting firms to embed AI through professional services channels. Every move they're making screams the same thing: We have a demand problem. And this is all happening right before OpenAI tries to IPO at $850 billion. If they can show Wall Street that 2,000+ companies are "using OpenAI products" through this PE distribution channel, it inflates their enterprise metrics right before the roadshow. Doesn't matter if those companies actually need it or if it creates real value. What matters is the number on the S-1. This is the AI playbook entering its most dangerous phase. The tech is real but the business model is being held together by financial engineering, guaranteed returns, and captive distribution deals that look more like a pharmaceutical company paying doctors to prescribe their drug than a software company earning customers on merit. And both OpenAI and Anthropic admitted it on the same day.

Ricardo

52,664 次观看 • 3 个月前

Sam Altman just found a legal way to bribe the entire US government into never regulating OpenAI again. The bribe is $42.6 billion of OpenAI stock. So Trump will now LOSE money every time a regulator tries to slow OpenAI down. Here's what makes this so genius: Altman sat down with Trump, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and proposed transferring 5% of OpenAI to a US government sovereign wealth fund modeled on the Alaska Permanent Fund. He also wants Anthropic, Google, Meta, and xAI to hand over 5% each. The media is covering this as generosity. But that's not what's happening here... Two weeks ago the White House quietly forced OpenAI to delay the launch of GPT 5.6. The Commerce Department banned Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 for 18 days. Both companies are trying to IPO in the next 12 months. Both are getting throttled by federal regulators every time a new model rolls out. OpenAI is also being investigated by a coalition of 42 state attorneys general in parallel. Altman looked at what happened to Intel and drew the correct conclusion. Just to remind you: Last August, Trump forced Intel to hand over 9.9% of its shares in exchange for CHIPS Act money Intel had already been awarded. A shareholder lawsuit unsealed in March called the deal "extortionary" and is trying to unwind it. Trump said in May he "should have negotiated a larger stake." Then Nvidia and AMD were forced to hand the US government 15% of their entire China chip revenue in exchange for export licenses. Altman saw the pattern. He is negotiating from the front instead of the back. He is voluntarily offering 5% now before Trump takes 15% by force later. Then there's also the Sanders threat: Bernie Sanders introduced the American AI Sovereign Wealth Fund Act in mid-June. His bill would take 50% of every leading US AI company and use it to fund $1,000 annual dividends to every American. Sanders values the fund at $7 trillion. Altman is using the Sanders threat to sell Congress on 5%. 5% is the number that makes him look reasonable. Now this is where it gets really genius... Microsoft owns roughly 49% of OpenAI. Microsoft was not in the room with Trump. SoftBank just committed $40 billion to OpenAI. SoftBank was not in the room either. Neither were the venture funds that led the March round at $852 billion. Neither were the OpenAI employees who own equity in the company. Every one of them just watched Altman promise 5% of their upside to Trump without a single vote. Altman is spending shareholder money to buy something only HE benefits from. And the US government cannot regulate a company it owns 5% of. Every safety rule that reduces OpenAI's valuation directly reduces the Treasury's own investment. Every model delay reduces the government's future dividend. And every antitrust action against OpenAI now hurts the same agencies supposed to bring those actions. The government becomes structurally incapable of enforcing the exact safety rules those agencies exist to enforce. Altman is turning the White House into a shareholder. Shareholders do not regulate - shareholders protect their investment. Every major AI lab in America now has one option to survive Washington: Hand over 5% before Congress takes 50%. The White House already holds equity in Intel, MP Materials, and multiple quantum computing firms. Nvidia and AMD hand over 15% of their China chip revenue for export licenses. The US government is now the LARGEST venture capitalist in American tech. And the founders are voluntarily cutting the checks themselves using their investors' money. What do you think?
1:21

Sam Altman just found a legal way to bribe the entire US government into never regulating OpenAI again. The bribe is $42.6 billion of OpenAI stock. So Trump will now LOSE money every time a regulator tries to slow OpenAI down. Here's what makes this so genius: Altman sat down with Trump, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and proposed transferring 5% of OpenAI to a US government sovereign wealth fund modeled on the Alaska Permanent Fund. He also wants Anthropic, Google, Meta, and xAI to hand over 5% each. The media is covering this as generosity. But that's not what's happening here... Two weeks ago the White House quietly forced OpenAI to delay the launch of GPT 5.6. The Commerce Department banned Anthropic's Claude Fable 5 for 18 days. Both companies are trying to IPO in the next 12 months. Both are getting throttled by federal regulators every time a new model rolls out. OpenAI is also being investigated by a coalition of 42 state attorneys general in parallel. Altman looked at what happened to Intel and drew the correct conclusion. Just to remind you: Last August, Trump forced Intel to hand over 9.9% of its shares in exchange for CHIPS Act money Intel had already been awarded. A shareholder lawsuit unsealed in March called the deal "extortionary" and is trying to unwind it. Trump said in May he "should have negotiated a larger stake." Then Nvidia and AMD were forced to hand the US government 15% of their entire China chip revenue in exchange for export licenses. Altman saw the pattern. He is negotiating from the front instead of the back. He is voluntarily offering 5% now before Trump takes 15% by force later. Then there's also the Sanders threat: Bernie Sanders introduced the American AI Sovereign Wealth Fund Act in mid-June. His bill would take 50% of every leading US AI company and use it to fund $1,000 annual dividends to every American. Sanders values the fund at $7 trillion. Altman is using the Sanders threat to sell Congress on 5%. 5% is the number that makes him look reasonable. Now this is where it gets really genius... Microsoft owns roughly 49% of OpenAI. Microsoft was not in the room with Trump. SoftBank just committed $40 billion to OpenAI. SoftBank was not in the room either. Neither were the venture funds that led the March round at $852 billion. Neither were the OpenAI employees who own equity in the company. Every one of them just watched Altman promise 5% of their upside to Trump without a single vote. Altman is spending shareholder money to buy something only HE benefits from. And the US government cannot regulate a company it owns 5% of. Every safety rule that reduces OpenAI's valuation directly reduces the Treasury's own investment. Every model delay reduces the government's future dividend. And every antitrust action against OpenAI now hurts the same agencies supposed to bring those actions. The government becomes structurally incapable of enforcing the exact safety rules those agencies exist to enforce. Altman is turning the White House into a shareholder. Shareholders do not regulate - shareholders protect their investment. Every major AI lab in America now has one option to survive Washington: Hand over 5% before Congress takes 50%. The White House already holds equity in Intel, MP Materials, and multiple quantum computing firms. Nvidia and AMD hand over 15% of their China chip revenue for export licenses. The US government is now the LARGEST venture capitalist in American tech. And the founders are voluntarily cutting the checks themselves using their investors' money. What do you think?

Ricardo

55,908 次观看 • 1 个月前

I can't believe that the once richest man on earth just bet his entire empire on ONE company. And he has 9 days to pull it off. SoftBank is scrambling to deliver $22.5 billion to OpenAI by December 31st. To get there, CEO Masayoshi Son sold his ENTIRE stake in the best-performing AI stock on the planet. Then sold billions more in other holdings. Cut staff. Froze dealmaking. Borrowed against everything he owns. This is the biggest all-in bet in the past few years. And it might be the most reckless financial engineering since 2008. Here's what's actually happening: SoftBank promised OpenAI $40 billion back in April when the company was valued at $300 billion. The deal had conditions. OpenAI had to convert to a for-profit structure by year-end. They did that in October. Now the clock is ticking. $22.5 billion must arrive in 9 days or the deal breaks. Son already delivered $17.5 billion earlier this year. Getting the rest is proving harder than anyone expected. The moves Son made to raise the cash are absolutely wild: He dumped SoftBank's entire $5.8 billion position in Nvidia. Not trimmed. Not reduced. LIQUIDATED. The same Nvidia that's been printing money for AI investors all year. He sold $4.8 billion worth of T-Mobile shares. Slashed staff across the company. And the Vision Fund that used to write checks for everything? Dead. Any deal over $50 million now requires Son's personal approval. Investment managers who used to hunt for the next big thing are now working full-time on the OpenAI transaction. But it still wasn't enough cash... So Son went to the debt markets. He expanded SoftBank's margin loan capacity by $6.5 billion, bringing total undrawn capacity to $11.5 billion. All of it backed by Arm Holdings stock. If Arm's stock drops, those loans get called. SoftBank faces margin calls. The whole thing unravels. And the risk gets crazier. OpenAI's valuation has tripled since April. Started at $300 billion. Now heading toward $900 billion according to sources. Amazon is reportedly joining the next round. On paper, SoftBank's investment looks brilliant. A 3X return in 8 months. But here's the thing: OpenAI is hemorrhaging cash at a rate that makes Uber's losses look responsible. The company generates $13 billion in annual revenue. Impressive... right? But they're literally projected to LOSE $74 billion by 2028. Not break even with losses. Not approach profitability. $74 billion in the red. Their revenue is growing. Their losses are growing faster. Because AI compute costs don't scale down. They scale UP. Every new ChatGPT user costs OpenAI money. Every API call burns cash. Every model training run requires millions in compute. Sam Altman told employees OpenAI is now in "code red" mode. Pausing all other product launches to focus entirely on beating Google's Gemini. That's the language of desperation. And Altman's long-term vision is even more expensive. He wants to build 30 gigawatts of AI compute capacity. Cost: $1.4 TRILLION. For context, that's larger than Mexico's entire GDP. He wants to add 1 gigawat every single week. Each gigawatt costs over $40 billion. The math doesn't work. The business model doesn't work. The capital requirements are impossible. But Son is betting everything anyway. Why would he do this? Because if it works, he owns the future. If OpenAI becomes the infrastructure layer for the next 20 years of computing, that $22.5 billion turns into trillions. SoftBank becomes the kingmaker of AI. Son becomes the most powerful investor in history. But if it fails? SoftBank vaporizes. The Nvidia stake is gone. Can't get it back. The T-Mobile shares are gone. The margin loans against Arm come due. Son has systematically dismantled his portfolio to concentrate everything into one bet. This is the opposite of diversification. This is the opposite of prudent risk management. This is a founder going all-in on a vision that everyone else thinks is insane. And he might be right. Other investors see it too. That's why OpenAI's valuation tripled in 8 months. BlackRock, Fidelity, and JP Morgan are all writing massive checks to private AI companies. Databricks just raised $4 billion at a $134 billion valuation. The entire market is betting that AI infrastructure will define the next decade. But the difference? They're diversifying. Spreading risk. Building portfolios. Son put everything on one company. The deadline is December 31st. In 9 days, we'll know if SoftBank pulled it off. If they deliver the $22.5 billion on time, the bet stays alive. If they miss the deadline, the deal could collapse. The terms could change. Competitors could swoop in. And Son will have sold the farm for nothing. This is either: The greatest venture bet in history. Or the most reckless financial move since Lehman Brothers. There's no middle ground. Masayoshi Son doesn't do middle ground. He bet big on Alibaba in 2000 and turned $20 million into $60 billion. He bet big on WeWork and lost $14 billion. Now he's betting bigger than ever. $22.5 billion. 9 days. Everything on the line. What would you do?
1:06

I can't believe that the once richest man on earth just bet his entire empire on ONE company. And he has 9 days to pull it off. SoftBank is scrambling to deliver $22.5 billion to OpenAI by December 31st. To get there, CEO Masayoshi Son sold his ENTIRE stake in the best-performing AI stock on the planet. Then sold billions more in other holdings. Cut staff. Froze dealmaking. Borrowed against everything he owns. This is the biggest all-in bet in the past few years. And it might be the most reckless financial engineering since 2008. Here's what's actually happening: SoftBank promised OpenAI $40 billion back in April when the company was valued at $300 billion. The deal had conditions. OpenAI had to convert to a for-profit structure by year-end. They did that in October. Now the clock is ticking. $22.5 billion must arrive in 9 days or the deal breaks. Son already delivered $17.5 billion earlier this year. Getting the rest is proving harder than anyone expected. The moves Son made to raise the cash are absolutely wild: He dumped SoftBank's entire $5.8 billion position in Nvidia. Not trimmed. Not reduced. LIQUIDATED. The same Nvidia that's been printing money for AI investors all year. He sold $4.8 billion worth of T-Mobile shares. Slashed staff across the company. And the Vision Fund that used to write checks for everything? Dead. Any deal over $50 million now requires Son's personal approval. Investment managers who used to hunt for the next big thing are now working full-time on the OpenAI transaction. But it still wasn't enough cash... So Son went to the debt markets. He expanded SoftBank's margin loan capacity by $6.5 billion, bringing total undrawn capacity to $11.5 billion. All of it backed by Arm Holdings stock. If Arm's stock drops, those loans get called. SoftBank faces margin calls. The whole thing unravels. And the risk gets crazier. OpenAI's valuation has tripled since April. Started at $300 billion. Now heading toward $900 billion according to sources. Amazon is reportedly joining the next round. On paper, SoftBank's investment looks brilliant. A 3X return in 8 months. But here's the thing: OpenAI is hemorrhaging cash at a rate that makes Uber's losses look responsible. The company generates $13 billion in annual revenue. Impressive... right? But they're literally projected to LOSE $74 billion by 2028. Not break even with losses. Not approach profitability. $74 billion in the red. Their revenue is growing. Their losses are growing faster. Because AI compute costs don't scale down. They scale UP. Every new ChatGPT user costs OpenAI money. Every API call burns cash. Every model training run requires millions in compute. Sam Altman told employees OpenAI is now in "code red" mode. Pausing all other product launches to focus entirely on beating Google's Gemini. That's the language of desperation. And Altman's long-term vision is even more expensive. He wants to build 30 gigawatts of AI compute capacity. Cost: $1.4 TRILLION. For context, that's larger than Mexico's entire GDP. He wants to add 1 gigawat every single week. Each gigawatt costs over $40 billion. The math doesn't work. The business model doesn't work. The capital requirements are impossible. But Son is betting everything anyway. Why would he do this? Because if it works, he owns the future. If OpenAI becomes the infrastructure layer for the next 20 years of computing, that $22.5 billion turns into trillions. SoftBank becomes the kingmaker of AI. Son becomes the most powerful investor in history. But if it fails? SoftBank vaporizes. The Nvidia stake is gone. Can't get it back. The T-Mobile shares are gone. The margin loans against Arm come due. Son has systematically dismantled his portfolio to concentrate everything into one bet. This is the opposite of diversification. This is the opposite of prudent risk management. This is a founder going all-in on a vision that everyone else thinks is insane. And he might be right. Other investors see it too. That's why OpenAI's valuation tripled in 8 months. BlackRock, Fidelity, and JP Morgan are all writing massive checks to private AI companies. Databricks just raised $4 billion at a $134 billion valuation. The entire market is betting that AI infrastructure will define the next decade. But the difference? They're diversifying. Spreading risk. Building portfolios. Son put everything on one company. The deadline is December 31st. In 9 days, we'll know if SoftBank pulled it off. If they deliver the $22.5 billion on time, the bet stays alive. If they miss the deadline, the deal could collapse. The terms could change. Competitors could swoop in. And Son will have sold the farm for nothing. This is either: The greatest venture bet in history. Or the most reckless financial move since Lehman Brothers. There's no middle ground. Masayoshi Son doesn't do middle ground. He bet big on Alibaba in 2000 and turned $20 million into $60 billion. He bet big on WeWork and lost $14 billion. Now he's betting bigger than ever. $22.5 billion. 9 days. Everything on the line. What would you do?

Ricardo

1,880,981 次观看 • 7 个月前

J-Cal: OpenAI Has Peaked @jason's take: "I think the headwinds for OpenAI are being underappreciated." 1) Major AI competition from the best in the world -- xAI: just getting started, and Elon Musk already has a major breakthrough with colossus -- Google: after early hiccups, the team has gotten focused and started kicking ass -- Microsoft: holds all the cards, CEO Satya Nadella was " almost like laughing at OpenAI for selling them the source code, and that they didn't even need OpenAI anymore because they had it all." -- Meta: zuck is hyper-focused on open-source, creating downward pressure on pricing 2) Devs prefer open-source -- "The developers I know all want to do open-source. They don't want to be beholden to OpenAI and Sam Altman." 3) $157B valuation is too high, given legal risks -- " There's a non-zero chance they could lose these court cases of transferring $157B in value from a nonprofit into a for-profit." -- " I think that whole thing could blow up in Sam Altman's lap."
0:46

J-Cal: OpenAI Has Peaked @jason's take: "I think the headwinds for OpenAI are being underappreciated." 1) Major AI competition from the best in the world -- xAI: just getting started, and Elon Musk already has a major breakthrough with colossus -- Google: after early hiccups, the team has gotten focused and started kicking ass -- Microsoft: holds all the cards, CEO Satya Nadella was " almost like laughing at OpenAI for selling them the source code, and that they didn't even need OpenAI anymore because they had it all." -- Meta: zuck is hyper-focused on open-source, creating downward pressure on pricing 2) Devs prefer open-source -- "The developers I know all want to do open-source. They don't want to be beholden to OpenAI and Sam Altman." 3) $157B valuation is too high, given legal risks -- " There's a non-zero chance they could lose these court cases of transferring $157B in value from a nonprofit into a for-profit." -- " I think that whole thing could blow up in Sam Altman's lap."

The All-In Podcast

60,474 次观看 • 1 年前

THIS IS ABSOLUTELY RIDICULOUS. OpenAI and Anthropic are losing money on every dollar they make. OpenAI generated $20 billion in revenue in 2025 and is projected to lose $14 billion in the same year. Internal forecasts project cumulative losses hitting $44 billion by 2028. The company's own CFO warned executives in April 2026 that OpenAI might struggle to finance upcoming computing deals if revenue growth slows. Anthropic reached $4.3 billion in annualized revenue in April 2026 against $19 billion in total costs. It spends $3 to make $1, and is not expected to stop burning cash until 2027. Now look at what these two companies have committed to spend. OpenAI and Anthropic together have committed $1.05 trillion in cloud spending to Microsoft, Oracle, Google and Amazon, making up 43 to 54% of each provider's entire future revenue backlog. - Microsoft: $627B total backlog. OpenAI and Anthropic account for 49%. - Oracle: $553B total backlog. OpenAI alone accounts for 54%. - Google: $467.6B total backlog. Anthropic accounts for 43%. - Amazon: $464B total backlog. OpenAI and Anthropic account for 51%. The entire cloud industry's future revenue is a bet on two companies losing billions every quarter. Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Amazon are collectively expected to spend $725 billion in capex in 2026, almost entirely on AI infrastructure. Combined hyperscaler capex from 2025 to 2027 is projected at $1.15 trillion, more than double what was spent from 2022 to 2024. What is the return on all of this? McKinsey's 2025 State of AI survey found that only a minority of companies reported AI meaningfully increased revenue or reduced costs. Enterprise generative AI spending grew from $1.7 billion in 2023 to $37 billion in 2025 and most CIOs still describe their initiatives as pilots without clear ROI metrics. Microsoft's AI business is running at a $37 billion annual revenue run rate with 123% year over year growth. That sounds impressive until you realize most of the capex funding is justified by expected future AI revenue rather than current AI profit. The internet burned money for years before it became the most profitable industry in history. But right now $1 trillion in committed cloud spend, $725 billion in annual capex, two loss-making customers making up half of every major cloud provider's revenue backlog, and the enterprises writing the checks cannot tell you if any of it is working.
0:22

THIS IS ABSOLUTELY RIDICULOUS. OpenAI and Anthropic are losing money on every dollar they make. OpenAI generated $20 billion in revenue in 2025 and is projected to lose $14 billion in the same year. Internal forecasts project cumulative losses hitting $44 billion by 2028. The company's own CFO warned executives in April 2026 that OpenAI might struggle to finance upcoming computing deals if revenue growth slows. Anthropic reached $4.3 billion in annualized revenue in April 2026 against $19 billion in total costs. It spends $3 to make $1, and is not expected to stop burning cash until 2027. Now look at what these two companies have committed to spend. OpenAI and Anthropic together have committed $1.05 trillion in cloud spending to Microsoft, Oracle, Google and Amazon, making up 43 to 54% of each provider's entire future revenue backlog. - Microsoft: $627B total backlog. OpenAI and Anthropic account for 49%. - Oracle: $553B total backlog. OpenAI alone accounts for 54%. - Google: $467.6B total backlog. Anthropic accounts for 43%. - Amazon: $464B total backlog. OpenAI and Anthropic account for 51%. The entire cloud industry's future revenue is a bet on two companies losing billions every quarter. Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Amazon are collectively expected to spend $725 billion in capex in 2026, almost entirely on AI infrastructure. Combined hyperscaler capex from 2025 to 2027 is projected at $1.15 trillion, more than double what was spent from 2022 to 2024. What is the return on all of this? McKinsey's 2025 State of AI survey found that only a minority of companies reported AI meaningfully increased revenue or reduced costs. Enterprise generative AI spending grew from $1.7 billion in 2023 to $37 billion in 2025 and most CIOs still describe their initiatives as pilots without clear ROI metrics. Microsoft's AI business is running at a $37 billion annual revenue run rate with 123% year over year growth. That sounds impressive until you realize most of the capex funding is justified by expected future AI revenue rather than current AI profit. The internet burned money for years before it became the most profitable industry in history. But right now $1 trillion in committed cloud spend, $725 billion in annual capex, two loss-making customers making up half of every major cloud provider's revenue backlog, and the enterprises writing the checks cannot tell you if any of it is working.

Crypto Rover

58,862 次观看 • 2 个月前

Sam Altman just crashed two stock markets in 4 hours and exposed the AI bubble. OpenAI is delaying its public listing until 2027 because Altman REFUSES to accept a single dollar under a $1 trillion valuation. Asia opened to the news and the panic was instant: SoftBank fell 13% in Tokyo, its worst day in months. The Nikkei dropped 4.5%. South Korea's KOSPI crashed 8% and the Korea Exchange triggered circuit breakers on the futures market, then halted trading entirely for 20 minutes when the bleeding refused to stop. Hong Kong and Shanghai followed. US futures slid before market open. One report triggered all of it in roughly four hours, erasing trillions in market cap across three continents. The world's most valuable private company just admitted it doesn't believe public markets will pay its asking price so Altman's own bankers presented him with two options: He could list this year at a lower valuation or he could wait until 2027 and try for the full trillion. He picked the wait, and the New York Times quoted a source saying he called any haircut a "non-starter." So basically: The man building "the most important technology in human history" doesn't think investors who actually have to mark their positions to market every day will hand him a trillion dollars right now. The reason he's right to be scared is sitting on the SpaceX ticker. Elon Musk's company IPO'd three weeks ago at a record $1.77 trillion valuation. The stock has since collapsed from $225 to $153, a 32% drop in seven trading days. Musk lost his trillionaire status in the process and every other AI-adjacent name has been dragged down with it. Altman watched that happen in real time and decided he'd rather burn another 18 months of compute cash than risk the same humiliation. Meanwhile the financials underneath the trillion-dollar number look like this: OpenAI did $13 billion in revenue last year on a $21 billion net loss. The company has committed roughly $600 billion in compute and hardware spending through 2030. Revenue is climbing to $2 billion a month, but the spending climbs faster. They are losing money at a scale that would have ended any other company in tech history, and the only thing keeping the lights on is the next funding round at the next higher number. The system Altman built depends on one thing: Each round has to price higher than the last, because that's what convinces the next round of investors to keep writing checks. The moment public markets refuse to pay the markup, the whole structure starts pricing itself the other direction. Anthropic already overtook OpenAI's last private valuation at $965 billion in May. SpaceX is showing what happens when reality finally hits. And SoftBank, the company that has bet $60 billion of borrowed money on OpenAI hitting that trillion-dollar mark, just had its worst session in weeks because the timer on Masayoshi Son's exit got pushed out another full year. Son spent yesterday at the shareholder meeting calling SoftBank "the goose that lays golden eggs." But the takeaway here is the TIMING: Altman's advisors told him retail enthusiasm "may be limited given current market jitters." That is banker code for "the bubble is showing cracks and you'll get embarrassed if you try this right now." The man who has been telling Congress, the press, and the public that AI will reshape civilization just looked at the order book and decided he doesn't want to find out what it's actually worth. The real story here goes beyond the delay itself. The most aggressive, hype-trained, valuation-obsessed CEO in modern technology just chose to wait rather than face a market that might say no. When the loudest believer flinches, the rest of us should probably pay attention.
1:03

Sam Altman just crashed two stock markets in 4 hours and exposed the AI bubble. OpenAI is delaying its public listing until 2027 because Altman REFUSES to accept a single dollar under a $1 trillion valuation. Asia opened to the news and the panic was instant: SoftBank fell 13% in Tokyo, its worst day in months. The Nikkei dropped 4.5%. South Korea's KOSPI crashed 8% and the Korea Exchange triggered circuit breakers on the futures market, then halted trading entirely for 20 minutes when the bleeding refused to stop. Hong Kong and Shanghai followed. US futures slid before market open. One report triggered all of it in roughly four hours, erasing trillions in market cap across three continents. The world's most valuable private company just admitted it doesn't believe public markets will pay its asking price so Altman's own bankers presented him with two options: He could list this year at a lower valuation or he could wait until 2027 and try for the full trillion. He picked the wait, and the New York Times quoted a source saying he called any haircut a "non-starter." So basically: The man building "the most important technology in human history" doesn't think investors who actually have to mark their positions to market every day will hand him a trillion dollars right now. The reason he's right to be scared is sitting on the SpaceX ticker. Elon Musk's company IPO'd three weeks ago at a record $1.77 trillion valuation. The stock has since collapsed from $225 to $153, a 32% drop in seven trading days. Musk lost his trillionaire status in the process and every other AI-adjacent name has been dragged down with it. Altman watched that happen in real time and decided he'd rather burn another 18 months of compute cash than risk the same humiliation. Meanwhile the financials underneath the trillion-dollar number look like this: OpenAI did $13 billion in revenue last year on a $21 billion net loss. The company has committed roughly $600 billion in compute and hardware spending through 2030. Revenue is climbing to $2 billion a month, but the spending climbs faster. They are losing money at a scale that would have ended any other company in tech history, and the only thing keeping the lights on is the next funding round at the next higher number. The system Altman built depends on one thing: Each round has to price higher than the last, because that's what convinces the next round of investors to keep writing checks. The moment public markets refuse to pay the markup, the whole structure starts pricing itself the other direction. Anthropic already overtook OpenAI's last private valuation at $965 billion in May. SpaceX is showing what happens when reality finally hits. And SoftBank, the company that has bet $60 billion of borrowed money on OpenAI hitting that trillion-dollar mark, just had its worst session in weeks because the timer on Masayoshi Son's exit got pushed out another full year. Son spent yesterday at the shareholder meeting calling SoftBank "the goose that lays golden eggs." But the takeaway here is the TIMING: Altman's advisors told him retail enthusiasm "may be limited given current market jitters." That is banker code for "the bubble is showing cracks and you'll get embarrassed if you try this right now." The man who has been telling Congress, the press, and the public that AI will reshape civilization just looked at the order book and decided he doesn't want to find out what it's actually worth. The real story here goes beyond the delay itself. The most aggressive, hype-trained, valuation-obsessed CEO in modern technology just chose to wait rather than face a market that might say no. When the loudest believer flinches, the rest of us should probably pay attention.

Ricardo

68,979 次观看 • 1 个月前

OpenAI just admitted Anthropic is KILLING their business. Their own applications chief told employees it was a "code red." Said Anthropic was a "wake-up call." Then admitted OpenAI had been "spreading efforts across too many apps" and it was "slowing them down." This is an internal confession. Here's why Anthropic is eating up OpenAI: 12 months ago, OpenAI owned 50% of all enterprise AI spending. Today it's just 27%. Anthropic went from nearly ZERO to winning 70% of every first-time enterprise AI deal. Seven out of ten companies buying AI tools for the first time are choosing Claude over ChatGPT. A year ago, one in 25 businesses on Ramp paid for Anthropic. Today it's one in four. OpenAI just had its biggest single-month adoption decline ever recorded. And Anthropic literally charges MORE than OpenAI for roughly the same performance. And businesses are STILL choosing them. In enterprise software, that never happens. The cheaper product usually wins. But Claude became something OpenAI never figured out how to be: Cool. Celebrities publicly switched to Claude. Senators are tweeting about using it. Engineers are shipping entire products with Claude Code in hours that used to take weeks. It started to became an identity signal. Like blue bubble vs green bubble in iMessage. Choosing Claude says something about you now. Meanwhile OpenAI went the opposite direction: They took the Pentagon contract that Anthropic refused. Greg Brockman donated $25 million to fund wars. ChatGPT uninstalls jumped 295% in a single day. Reddit posts saying "Cancel and Delete ChatGPT" got 30,000 upvotes. Anthropic said no to mass surveillance and autonomous weapons. Got blacklisted by the Pentagon. Trump called them a "Radical Left AI company." And their downloads went to #1 on the App Store the next day. Turns out refusing to build weapons is good marketing. But the real damage isn't consumer downloads. It's the MONEY. Claude Code hit $2.5 billion in annual revenue in six months. OpenAI's competing product Codex just barely crossed $1 billion. And Anthropic literally cannot meet demand. They're turning away paying customers because they don't have enough compute to serve them. A company REJECTING revenue because it's growing too fast. While OpenAI scrambles to consolidate. Last week OpenAI announced they're merging ChatGPT, Codex, and their browser into one "superapp." But what this really means: "We launched too many products, none of them worked well enough alone, so now we're cramming everything together and hoping it sticks." And remember their video tool Sora? Launched standalone. Hit #1 on the App Store. Usage flatlined within weeks. Now they're forced to shut it down. Their browser Atlas? Still hasn't launched publicly. Their IPO? Polymarket odds dropped from 55% to 35%. OpenAI has 900 million users. Anthropic has maybe 10 million daily actives. But here's the thing... OpenAI won the consumer war. ChatGPT is where your mom asks about recipes and your cousin makes memes. Anthropic won the war that actually MATTERS. The developers. The engineers. The enterprises writing 7 figure checks. OpenAI built the biggest chatbot on Earth. Anthropic built the tool that companies can't stop paying for. This is Yahoo vs Google all over again. Yahoo had the users. Google had the product. And we all know how that ended. OpenAI has 12 months to prove the superapp works, land the IPO, and stop the enterprise bleeding. If they can't, the most valuable startup in history becomes the most cautionary tale in tech. 900 million users don't mean anything if the people who actually pay are walking out the door. What do you think?
2:25

OpenAI just admitted Anthropic is KILLING their business. Their own applications chief told employees it was a "code red." Said Anthropic was a "wake-up call." Then admitted OpenAI had been "spreading efforts across too many apps" and it was "slowing them down." This is an internal confession. Here's why Anthropic is eating up OpenAI: 12 months ago, OpenAI owned 50% of all enterprise AI spending. Today it's just 27%. Anthropic went from nearly ZERO to winning 70% of every first-time enterprise AI deal. Seven out of ten companies buying AI tools for the first time are choosing Claude over ChatGPT. A year ago, one in 25 businesses on Ramp paid for Anthropic. Today it's one in four. OpenAI just had its biggest single-month adoption decline ever recorded. And Anthropic literally charges MORE than OpenAI for roughly the same performance. And businesses are STILL choosing them. In enterprise software, that never happens. The cheaper product usually wins. But Claude became something OpenAI never figured out how to be: Cool. Celebrities publicly switched to Claude. Senators are tweeting about using it. Engineers are shipping entire products with Claude Code in hours that used to take weeks. It started to became an identity signal. Like blue bubble vs green bubble in iMessage. Choosing Claude says something about you now. Meanwhile OpenAI went the opposite direction: They took the Pentagon contract that Anthropic refused. Greg Brockman donated $25 million to fund wars. ChatGPT uninstalls jumped 295% in a single day. Reddit posts saying "Cancel and Delete ChatGPT" got 30,000 upvotes. Anthropic said no to mass surveillance and autonomous weapons. Got blacklisted by the Pentagon. Trump called them a "Radical Left AI company." And their downloads went to #1 on the App Store the next day. Turns out refusing to build weapons is good marketing. But the real damage isn't consumer downloads. It's the MONEY. Claude Code hit $2.5 billion in annual revenue in six months. OpenAI's competing product Codex just barely crossed $1 billion. And Anthropic literally cannot meet demand. They're turning away paying customers because they don't have enough compute to serve them. A company REJECTING revenue because it's growing too fast. While OpenAI scrambles to consolidate. Last week OpenAI announced they're merging ChatGPT, Codex, and their browser into one "superapp." But what this really means: "We launched too many products, none of them worked well enough alone, so now we're cramming everything together and hoping it sticks." And remember their video tool Sora? Launched standalone. Hit #1 on the App Store. Usage flatlined within weeks. Now they're forced to shut it down. Their browser Atlas? Still hasn't launched publicly. Their IPO? Polymarket odds dropped from 55% to 35%. OpenAI has 900 million users. Anthropic has maybe 10 million daily actives. But here's the thing... OpenAI won the consumer war. ChatGPT is where your mom asks about recipes and your cousin makes memes. Anthropic won the war that actually MATTERS. The developers. The engineers. The enterprises writing 7 figure checks. OpenAI built the biggest chatbot on Earth. Anthropic built the tool that companies can't stop paying for. This is Yahoo vs Google all over again. Yahoo had the users. Google had the product. And we all know how that ended. OpenAI has 12 months to prove the superapp works, land the IPO, and stop the enterprise bleeding. If they can't, the most valuable startup in history becomes the most cautionary tale in tech. 900 million users don't mean anything if the people who actually pay are walking out the door. What do you think?

Ricardo

35,020 次观看 • 4 个月前

OpenAI saga in 90 seconds: - Thursday night, Sam Altman gets a text from Ilya Sutskever, OpenAI’s chief scientist & board member asking to chat on Friday. - Friday at Noon, Sam Altman is fired by the Open AI board because he was “not consistently candid in his communications.” - CTO Mira Murati is made Interim CEO. - Microsoft, OpenAI’s largest investor, found out about the move 1 minute before the announcement. Their stock gets crushed. - Right after, Greg Brockman, OpenAI’s President is asked to chat, where he’s told he’s removed from the board but retaining his role. - Greg resigns from OpenAI in solidarity with Sam Altman shortly after. - Tech news & twitter subsequently blow the f*ck up. - Sam Altman fires off a few tweets saying how grateful he was for openAI and the people and how he’d have more things to say soon. - OpenAI employees start tweeting hearts supposedly a signal to the board of who would leave OpenAI to follow Sam Altman if the decision was kept. - By Saturday, rumors start that the OpenAI board is in discussions to bring Sam Altman back as CEO. - Sam Altman tweets out a picture of him wearing a guest pass at OpenAI HQ. - Microsoft & Satya Nadella lead the charge to negotiate with the board. - Board negotiation ends with Altman officially being out on Sunday night & employees streaming out of the office. - Monday morning Twitch cofounder Emmett Shear is named interim CEO. - Around the same time, Satya Nadella announces that Sam is joining Microsoft as the CEO of a new AI research group & former OpenAI leaders like Greg Brockman are joining him. - Still Monday Morning, OpenAI employees share a letter with the board where 650 of 700 employees tell the board to resign.
1:31

OpenAI saga in 90 seconds: - Thursday night, Sam Altman gets a text from Ilya Sutskever, OpenAI’s chief scientist & board member asking to chat on Friday. - Friday at Noon, Sam Altman is fired by the Open AI board because he was “not consistently candid in his communications.” - CTO Mira Murati is made Interim CEO. - Microsoft, OpenAI’s largest investor, found out about the move 1 minute before the announcement. Their stock gets crushed. - Right after, Greg Brockman, OpenAI’s President is asked to chat, where he’s told he’s removed from the board but retaining his role. - Greg resigns from OpenAI in solidarity with Sam Altman shortly after. - Tech news & twitter subsequently blow the f*ck up. - Sam Altman fires off a few tweets saying how grateful he was for openAI and the people and how he’d have more things to say soon. - OpenAI employees start tweeting hearts supposedly a signal to the board of who would leave OpenAI to follow Sam Altman if the decision was kept. - By Saturday, rumors start that the OpenAI board is in discussions to bring Sam Altman back as CEO. - Sam Altman tweets out a picture of him wearing a guest pass at OpenAI HQ. - Microsoft & Satya Nadella lead the charge to negotiate with the board. - Board negotiation ends with Altman officially being out on Sunday night & employees streaming out of the office. - Monday morning Twitch cofounder Emmett Shear is named interim CEO. - Around the same time, Satya Nadella announces that Sam is joining Microsoft as the CEO of a new AI research group & former OpenAI leaders like Greg Brockman are joining him. - Still Monday Morning, OpenAI employees share a letter with the board where 650 of 700 employees tell the board to resign.

Alex Lieberman

957,503 次观看 • 2 年前

Elon Musk sat next to Sam Altman in 2016 and praised the nonprofit they built to keep AI out of the hands of a few. Altman ran the camera. He asked how the 6-month-old company was going. Musk called it a talented team. A 501c3. A charity to democratize AI "so it doesn't get concentrated in the hands of a few." That was the whole pitch. Keep it open. Keep it shared. Keep it out of any single grip. 10 years later, that charity is worth over $800B and filing for a $1T IPO. The nonprofit grew a for-profit arm. Microsoft took a stake. Altman ran all of it. In 2024, Musk sued for $150B . He wanted Altman removed and the structure torn down for breaking the exact promise he watched him make on camera. On May 18, 2026, a jury threw it out in under 2 hours. Filed too late, they ruled. Now he calls him "Scam Altman." 3 days ago Apple sued OpenAI. Musk piled on. Altman's reply: the surest sign his model is winning is that Elon is obsessed with him again. 2 co-founders. 1 charity. 11 years. They filmed the whole thing themselves.
19:32

Elon Musk sat next to Sam Altman in 2016 and praised the nonprofit they built to keep AI out of the hands of a few. Altman ran the camera. He asked how the 6-month-old company was going. Musk called it a talented team. A 501c3. A charity to democratize AI "so it doesn't get concentrated in the hands of a few." That was the whole pitch. Keep it open. Keep it shared. Keep it out of any single grip. 10 years later, that charity is worth over $800B and filing for a $1T IPO. The nonprofit grew a for-profit arm. Microsoft took a stake. Altman ran all of it. In 2024, Musk sued for $150B . He wanted Altman removed and the structure torn down for breaking the exact promise he watched him make on camera. On May 18, 2026, a jury threw it out in under 2 hours. Filed too late, they ruled. Now he calls him "Scam Altman." 3 days ago Apple sued OpenAI. Musk piled on. Altman's reply: the surest sign his model is winning is that Elon is obsessed with him again. 2 co-founders. 1 charity. 11 years. They filmed the whole thing themselves.

Veltrx

65,138 次观看 • 1 个月前

Karma’s a bitch. Sam was acting cocky telling Brad he can sell his shares if he wants to, implying there will always be people wanting and willing to invest $ in OpenAI. Well now things are changing fast. It’s clear to me Sam Altman took Elon Musk’s original vision for OpenAI - a nonprofit built to protect humanity from runaway AI - and twisted it into a profit maximizing AI. That was NEVER the deal. He screwed Elon over. Now the jury trial starting on April 27 will put everything under a microscope. The emails, the promises, the lies…. it ALL is coming out. If the truth holds, Elon will get the $134B he deserves and OpenAI will be forced back into a nonprofit, like it was supposed to be on day 1. And once that happens, investment $ will dry up and the valuation of OpenAI will plummet overnight. Investors hate uncertainty, lawsuits, and broken trust & founding principles. If OpenAI is officially locked back into being a nonprofit, the entire investment thesis dissipates. There’s no upside, no ownership, no exit strategy. At that point, there’s no real reason for investors to keep pouring $ into a losing, untrustworthy business. Smart $ always follows clarity, trust, and conviction. And when those things disappear, so does the $.
2:19

Karma’s a bitch. Sam was acting cocky telling Brad he can sell his shares if he wants to, implying there will always be people wanting and willing to invest $ in OpenAI. Well now things are changing fast. It’s clear to me Sam Altman took Elon Musk’s original vision for OpenAI - a nonprofit built to protect humanity from runaway AI - and twisted it into a profit maximizing AI. That was NEVER the deal. He screwed Elon over. Now the jury trial starting on April 27 will put everything under a microscope. The emails, the promises, the lies…. it ALL is coming out. If the truth holds, Elon will get the $134B he deserves and OpenAI will be forced back into a nonprofit, like it was supposed to be on day 1. And once that happens, investment $ will dry up and the valuation of OpenAI will plummet overnight. Investors hate uncertainty, lawsuits, and broken trust & founding principles. If OpenAI is officially locked back into being a nonprofit, the entire investment thesis dissipates. There’s no upside, no ownership, no exit strategy. At that point, there’s no real reason for investors to keep pouring $ into a losing, untrustworthy business. Smart $ always follows clarity, trust, and conviction. And when those things disappear, so does the $.

Teslaconomics

207,517 次观看 • 6 个月前