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Sam Altman on how AI token usage is growing at an exponential rate. "6 and a half years ago, the world token leader was an OpenAI employee using about 100,000 tokens a month. And this seemed ludicrous at the time. The worldwide average per capita was, like, zero. Now,... show more
20,395 görüntüleme • 9 gün önce •via X (Twitter)
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more tokens per task usually means the model is guessing longer, not thinking harder. celebrating token growth is celebrating inefficiency with better PR

Either efficiency gains are growing at an exponential rate or they are going to hit a wall at some point b/c we can’t manufacture steam turbines, nuclear power plants, coal plants, or even all of them combined at an exponential rate.

Run Altman's numbers and you get an infrastructure problem. 500B tokens per person monthly is terawatt-scale inference, and grids are already the bottleneck. Abu Dhabi is positioned for exactly this with Barakah's 5.6 GW of nuclear baseload.

I now treat inference like a UK power bill. If token growth stays like this, energy cost writes the business model.

Token volume is an input, not an outcome. The useful metric is accepted work per million tokens after retries, review time, and rollback costs.

Most of those tokens are just going to be infinite agent retry loops anyway.

Yeah, system seem to use more tokens when they don’t know what they’re doing.
