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Sam Altman on how AI token usage is growing at an exponential rate. "6 and a half years ago, the world token leader was an OpenAI employee using about 100,000 tokens a month. And this seemed ludicrous at the time. The worldwide average per capita was, like, zero. Now,...

20,395 görüntüleme • 9 gün önce •via X (Twitter)

8 Yorum

Rohan Paul profil fotoğrafı
Rohan Paul9 gün önce

full video

Mahir profil fotoğrafı
Mahir9 gün önce

more tokens per task usually means the model is guessing longer, not thinking harder. celebrating token growth is celebrating inefficiency with better PR

Xan Nick profil fotoğrafı
Xan Nick9 gün önce

Either efficiency gains are growing at an exponential rate or they are going to hit a wall at some point b/c we can’t manufacture steam turbines, nuclear power plants, coal plants, or even all of them combined at an exponential rate.

DanTheTechMan profil fotoğrafı
DanTheTechMan9 gün önce

Run Altman's numbers and you get an infrastructure problem. 500B tokens per person monthly is terawatt-scale inference, and grids are already the bottleneck. Abu Dhabi is positioned for exactly this with Barakah's 5.6 GW of nuclear baseload.

AIKeaton UK profil fotoğrafı
AIKeaton UK8 gün önce

I now treat inference like a UK power bill. If token growth stays like this, energy cost writes the business model.

Tom Leroy profil fotoğrafı
Tom Leroy9 gün önce

Token volume is an input, not an outcome. The useful metric is accepted work per million tokens after retries, review time, and rollback costs.

Gill profil fotoğrafı
Gill8 gün önce

Most of those tokens are just going to be infinite agent retry loops anyway.

Christopher Layhew Sr profil fotoğrafı
Christopher Layhew Sr9 gün önce

Yeah, system seem to use more tokens when they don’t know what they’re doing.

Benzer Videolar

OpenAI CEO, Sam Altman, sat down for 39 minutes with Y Combinator's Garry Tan and explained where AI is headed better than any $2,000 strategy course. This is what he told the room: 1. The next 6 months will match the last 2 years. Garry asked how much better the models will get. Sam gave a timeline. "I think it will feel like the next six months is maybe equivalent to the last two years of model progress." That's the steepest capability curve yet, from the man shipping the models. 2. Average users now consume what the world record used to be. Sam pulled one stat to show where demand is going. "Six and a half years ago, the world token leader was an OpenAI employee using about 100,000 tokens a month." Today that number is the worldwide average, OpenAI's top user burns hundreds of billions, and if the pattern repeats, the average person hits 500 billion tokens a month by 2033. 3. Startups win when the ground shifts. Asked about credentials and PhDs, he zoomed out to when great startups cluster. "Startups tend to win when the technology landscape is moving very quickly, when costs are coming down, when cycle times are short. All of those things are happening right now." The conditions behind the late-90s internet boom and the App Store wave, running at the same time. 4. Tool fluency beats years of experience. He described founders who grew up on AI automating entire startups with 4 people. "I would bet that this generally will cut against many years of experience in favor of people who have a lot of fluency with the tools." Hours in the tools now outweigh years on a resume. 5. Being called an idiot was the moat. Ten years ago, experts said OpenAI would cause another AI winter. "For years at OpenAI, it felt like we knew the biggest secret in the world. Everybody was calling us an idiot." The critics bought them years of runway with zero competitors. 6. You need 5 believers, not 500. On finding co-founders for a heretical idea. "We used to joke that only 50 people in the world believed that AGI was possible, but it was okay because 45 of them worked at OpenAI." Heretical ideas recruit stronger teams than popular ones. 7. Demand for intelligence has no ceiling. He compared it to electricity and found the analogy breaks. "The demand for sufficiently high-quality intelligence at a sufficiently low price is effectively uncapped." His guess: worldwide inference demand grows 10x a year for years. Watch it, then read the guide to going from zero to AI engineer.

Alex Prompter

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