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Sam Altman says: "AGI felt like a milestone, but superintelligence feels like this thing that can just scale indefinitely" I haven't heard a debate at the cafeteria table about 'are we at AGI and when will we get there' in a very long time

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Haider.

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Sam Altman: “AGI feels pretty close at this point. Watching how much the technology we already have is accelerating us internally, I’d say AGI feels pretty close. And given what I now expect to be a faster takeoff, I think superintelligence is not that far off.”
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Sam Altman: “AGI feels pretty close at this point. Watching how much the technology we already have is accelerating us internally, I’d say AGI feels pretty close. And given what I now expect to be a faster takeoff, I think superintelligence is not that far off.”

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SAM ALTMAN: "You will graduate to a world with AGI in it" Sam Altman just told a room of college sophomores that by the time they finish school, Artificial General Intelligence will be a reality. Specifically: • Science will become increasingly automated. • What it means to start a startup or work at a company will be totally different. • A lot of traditional career advice is no longer going to work. Which is all true. My AGI timeline is actually slightly later than Sam’s - Whereas I believe it will arrive in 2029 but at that point we are grasping at straws.

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Sam Altman on GPT 6 • The GDPv eval will shift some of the way we do post training • overall we are keeping the same strategy going into GPT 6 Sam Altman on AGI: Sam Altman about AGI: "we are finally in the moment": "As the closer we get to it, the fuzzier the Agi concept becomes. But the one thing that I care the most about and, to my great surprise, we're finally in the moment; where it's starting to happen is, when it can do novel discovery, when It can expand the total human knowledge base.“ I have seen some examples from credible professors, that novel math problems have been solved. Such as GPT 5 Pro reportedly solving Yu Tsumura’s 554th problem, an IMO level group theory challenge that an August preprint said no LLM had solved, so the new claim is being actively contested. Sébastien Bubeck also said GPT 5 Pro produced a new proof that tightened a bound in smooth convex optimization.

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Sam Altman says we never defined AGI, so it may have already "whooshed by" without a clear moment when the world changed Now the focus has shifted to superintelligence "a system better than any human at being a President, CEO, or scientist, even with AI help"
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Sam Altman says we never defined AGI, so it may have already "whooshed by" without a clear moment when the world changed Now the focus has shifted to superintelligence "a system better than any human at being a President, CEO, or scientist, even with AI help"

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Sam Altman about AGI: "we are finally in the moment": "As the closer we get to it, the fuzzier the [AGI] concept becomes. But the one thing that I care the most about and, to my great surprise, we're finally in the moment; where it's starting to happen is, when it can do novel discovery, when It can expand the total human knowledge base. (...) But you see all these examples now on Twitter where scientists in these different fields are saying it made a small discovery, or it came up with a novel approach, or it figured something out."
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Sam Altman about AGI: "we are finally in the moment": "As the closer we get to it, the fuzzier the [AGI] concept becomes. But the one thing that I care the most about and, to my great surprise, we're finally in the moment; where it's starting to happen is, when it can do novel discovery, when It can expand the total human knowledge base. (...) But you see all these examples now on Twitter where scientists in these different fields are saying it made a small discovery, or it came up with a novel approach, or it figured something out."

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When will AGI happen? Sam Altman: We are in the middle of the process. It's not a single point, but a transition. "Our goal is an automated AI researcher by March 2028." It's about inching closer, surpassing humans on multiple axes.

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Sam Altman says OpenAI can just do more things. Like "go build a Dyson Sphere and make the world's gigantic data center with the entire energy output of the sun." No bandwidth now but when AGI arrives, you start planning harvesting stars.

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OpenAI CEO: “Goalposts keep getting moved” - if we were still using AGI definitions from 10 years ago, many would say GPT-4 is AGI. “In one year, AI will be dramatically more impressive.” He also said (surprisingly confidently - he did not hedge like usual) AGI is less than 10 years away. In the long term he’s not concerned about AI taking jobs, but he is concerned about the speed that AI will disrupt the job market. --- INTERVIEWER: What is AGI? When will it be here? And how will we know it's here? Predict how long - we'll call you in ten years? SAM ALTMAN: Less than that. We kind of define AGI as like the thing we don't have quite yet. there were a lot of people who would have ten years ago said, alright, if you could make something like GPT-4, GPT-5, maybe, that would have been an AGI. And now people are like, well, it's like a nice little chatbot or whatever. And I think that's wonderful. I think it's great that the goalposts keep getting moved, it makes us work harder. But I think we're getting close enough to whatever that AGI threshold is going to be, that we no longer get to handwave at it and the definition is going to matter. INTERVIEWER: What is the inflection point for AGI? SAM ALTMAN: I think it's going to be much more continuous than that. We're just on this beautiful exponential curve. Whenever you're on a curve like that, you look forward, it looks vertical. You look back, it looks horizontal. That's true at any point on there. So a year from now, we'll be in a dramatically more impressive place than a year ago. We were in a dramatically less impressive place. But it'll be hard to point. People will try and say, oh, it was AlphaGo that did it. It was GPT-3 that did it. It was GPT-4 that did it. But it's just brick by brick. 1 foot in front of the other, up, climbing this exponential curve. WILL AIs TAKE ALL OUR JOBS? SAM ALTMAN: Every technological revolution affects the job market. And over human history, every maybe 100 years, 150 years, half the jobs go away, totally change, whatever. I'm not afraid of that at all. In fact, I think that's good. I think that's the way of progress and we'll find new and better jobs. The thing that I think we do need to confront as a society is the speed at which this is going to happen. It seems like over two, maximum three, probably two generations, we can adapt. Society can adapt to almost any amount of job market change. But a lot of people like their jobs or they dislike change. And going to someone and saying, hey, the future will be better, I promise you, and society is going to win, but you're going to lose here. That doesn't work. That's not cool. That's not an easy message to get across. We are going to have to really do something about this transition. It is not enough to just give people a universal basic income. People need to have agency, the ability to influence this
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OpenAI CEO: “Goalposts keep getting moved” - if we were still using AGI definitions from 10 years ago, many would say GPT-4 is AGI. “In one year, AI will be dramatically more impressive.” He also said (surprisingly confidently - he did not hedge like usual) AGI is less than 10 years away. In the long term he’s not concerned about AI taking jobs, but he is concerned about the speed that AI will disrupt the job market. --- INTERVIEWER: What is AGI? When will it be here? And how will we know it's here? Predict how long - we'll call you in ten years? SAM ALTMAN: Less than that. We kind of define AGI as like the thing we don't have quite yet. there were a lot of people who would have ten years ago said, alright, if you could make something like GPT-4, GPT-5, maybe, that would have been an AGI. And now people are like, well, it's like a nice little chatbot or whatever. And I think that's wonderful. I think it's great that the goalposts keep getting moved, it makes us work harder. But I think we're getting close enough to whatever that AGI threshold is going to be, that we no longer get to handwave at it and the definition is going to matter. INTERVIEWER: What is the inflection point for AGI? SAM ALTMAN: I think it's going to be much more continuous than that. We're just on this beautiful exponential curve. Whenever you're on a curve like that, you look forward, it looks vertical. You look back, it looks horizontal. That's true at any point on there. So a year from now, we'll be in a dramatically more impressive place than a year ago. We were in a dramatically less impressive place. But it'll be hard to point. People will try and say, oh, it was AlphaGo that did it. It was GPT-3 that did it. It was GPT-4 that did it. But it's just brick by brick. 1 foot in front of the other, up, climbing this exponential curve. WILL AIs TAKE ALL OUR JOBS? SAM ALTMAN: Every technological revolution affects the job market. And over human history, every maybe 100 years, 150 years, half the jobs go away, totally change, whatever. I'm not afraid of that at all. In fact, I think that's good. I think that's the way of progress and we'll find new and better jobs. The thing that I think we do need to confront as a society is the speed at which this is going to happen. It seems like over two, maximum three, probably two generations, we can adapt. Society can adapt to almost any amount of job market change. But a lot of people like their jobs or they dislike change. And going to someone and saying, hey, the future will be better, I promise you, and society is going to win, but you're going to lose here. That doesn't work. That's not cool. That's not an easy message to get across. We are going to have to really do something about this transition. It is not enough to just give people a universal basic income. People need to have agency, the ability to influence this

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27,551 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren

Ilya Sutskever had a TED talk this year and predicted the two most important concepts that we haven't discussed much: • AGI will have the ability to improve itself • AGI will work on the next generation of AGI
0:56

Ilya Sutskever had a TED talk this year and predicted the two most important concepts that we haven't discussed much: • AGI will have the ability to improve itself • AGI will work on the next generation of AGI

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241,598 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

.Sam Altman says AGI won’t feel like a singularity. It’ll arrive quietly, be absorbed fast and life will keep moving, showing how quickly society adapts. “It turns out it will be more continuous than we thought.”
0:32

.Sam Altman says AGI won’t feel like a singularity. It’ll arrive quietly, be absorbed fast and life will keep moving, showing how quickly society adapts. “It turns out it will be more continuous than we thought.”

a16z

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Sam Altman says the time to seriously debate superintelligence is now There are no fixed answers, but there are ideas to start the conversation before bigger changes arrive AI is starting to do real work in coding, knowledge work, and science "we want people to start thinking about how that should go"
1:19

Sam Altman says the time to seriously debate superintelligence is now There are no fixed answers, but there are ideas to start the conversation before bigger changes arrive AI is starting to do real work in coding, knowledge work, and science "we want people to start thinking about how that should go"

Haider.

24,683 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten

🚨 FRANCOIS CHOLLET SAYS THE CURRENT LLM STACK IS THE WRONG PATH TO AGI Interviewer: “When will we accomplish the first definition of AGI?” Chollet confirms we are already on that exact trajectory, pointing out that: "Current technology can fully automate at human level or beyond any domain where you have verifiable rewards, right? And code... code being the first one." He then brings up the problem with LLMs, stating that: "It's possible in principle to build something that looks a lot like AGI on top of the LLM stack... I do believe, however, this would be the wrong thing to do because it would be very inefficient." Looking ahead to what the final architecture will actually require, he explains that: "AI research will have to trend towards not just efficiency, but in fact optimality over time. And for this reason, future AI in a few decades... it's not going to be this harness on top of a reasoning model on top of a base LLM."
1:41

🚨 FRANCOIS CHOLLET SAYS THE CURRENT LLM STACK IS THE WRONG PATH TO AGI Interviewer: “When will we accomplish the first definition of AGI?” Chollet confirms we are already on that exact trajectory, pointing out that: "Current technology can fully automate at human level or beyond any domain where you have verifiable rewards, right? And code... code being the first one." He then brings up the problem with LLMs, stating that: "It's possible in principle to build something that looks a lot like AGI on top of the LLM stack... I do believe, however, this would be the wrong thing to do because it would be very inefficient." Looking ahead to what the final architecture will actually require, he explains that: "AI research will have to trend towards not just efficiency, but in fact optimality over time. And for this reason, future AI in a few decades... it's not going to be this harness on top of a reasoning model on top of a base LLM."

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15,578 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten