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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Sanctions with no exit attached read as regime change, and Tehran responds accordingly. Trita Parsi, Quincy Institute EVP, says a pressure campaign that offers nothing to accept isn't a negotiating position at all, which is why it keeps producing counter-escalation rather than concessions. And the pain never lands... show more

Mario Nawfal

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38,979 просмотров • 5 дней назад •via X (Twitter)

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🇮🇱 🇮🇷 Israel wants the next round with Iran, and the timing runs on its own election calendar. Trita Parsi, Quincy Institute EVP, says the Israeli public counted the June war as a success and this one as a failure, which means Netanyahu needs something conclusive before he moves again. Nothing available right now clears that bar, so Parsi sees little chance before October and the odds climbing sharply afterward: "Israel is the exceptional country that doesn't have to manage threats. It just has to eliminate threats." Trita Parsi

🇮🇱 🇮🇷 Israel wants the next round with Iran, and the timing runs on its own election calendar. Trita Parsi, Quincy Institute EVP, says the Israeli public counted the June war as a success and this one as a failure, which means Netanyahu needs something conclusive before he moves again. Nothing available right now clears that bar, so Parsi sees little chance before October and the odds climbing sharply afterward: "Israel is the exceptional country that doesn't have to manage threats. It just has to eliminate threats." Trita Parsi

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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 “Maximum pressure” on Iran is backfiring… again. Trita Parsi, Quincy Institute, Iran expert, just dropped a reality check: Iran has adapted to years of U.S. sanctions and blockades. The pain is real, but it’s nowhere near decisive. Instead of forcing collapse or total surrender, the pressure campaign has pushed Iran to build resilience, diversify its economy, and find workarounds: from higher oil exports to stronger alliances. Is Washington repeating the same failed playbook while Tehran keeps adjusting? Trita Parsi

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 “Maximum pressure” on Iran is backfiring… again. Trita Parsi, Quincy Institute, Iran expert, just dropped a reality check: Iran has adapted to years of U.S. sanctions and blockades. The pain is real, but it’s nowhere near decisive. Instead of forcing collapse or total surrender, the pressure campaign has pushed Iran to build resilience, diversify its economy, and find workarounds: from higher oil exports to stronger alliances. Is Washington repeating the same failed playbook while Tehran keeps adjusting? Trita Parsi

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🇮🇷🇺🇸 Trita Parsi put a number on it: better than 80% odds the fighting escalates past March and April's intensity, inside the next month. He's clear it isn't there yet. Fewer targets, lower tempo. He just doesn't think the direction is in question. "Some of the nightmare scenarios we talked about last time that did not happen are happening now, which means that some of the other ones that did not happen may happen as well" Parsi says that restraint is gone. Whatever gets hit now, Iran intends to hit something equivalent back. Escalation risk accepted rather than avoided. Trita Parsi

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Trita Parsi put a number on it: better than 80% odds the fighting escalates past March and April's intensity, inside the next month. He's clear it isn't there yet. Fewer targets, lower tempo. He just doesn't think the direction is in question. "Some of the nightmare scenarios we talked about last time that did not happen are happening now, which means that some of the other ones that did not happen may happen as well" Parsi says that restraint is gone. Whatever gets hit now, Iran intends to hit something equivalent back. Escalation risk accepted rather than avoided. Trita Parsi

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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Iran struck Bahrain and Kuwait to prove it could escalate harder than the U.S. was comfortable with, and it worked. Trita Parsi breaks down how both sides may be quietly climbing down. "The pain of that status quo was mainly on the Iranian side. The Iranians escalated to spread the pain." Trita Parsi

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 Iran struck Bahrain and Kuwait to prove it could escalate harder than the U.S. was comfortable with, and it worked. Trita Parsi breaks down how both sides may be quietly climbing down. "The pain of that status quo was mainly on the Iranian side. The Iranians escalated to spread the pain." Trita Parsi

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🇱🇧 🇮🇱 Israel can hit Lebanon without American help, which is exactly why the warnings don't hold. Trita Parsi, Quincy Institute EVP, draws the line between the two theaters. Anything major against Iran needs U.S. coordination, so it's unlikely. Lebanon requires nothing from Washington at all: "The Israelis interpret the American no as being extremely wishy washy. And to be frank, they're probably right." He also clarifies the Iranian red line, which was never all of Lebanon. It was Beirut. Trita Parsi

🇱🇧 🇮🇱 Israel can hit Lebanon without American help, which is exactly why the warnings don't hold. Trita Parsi, Quincy Institute EVP, draws the line between the two theaters. Anything major against Iran needs U.S. coordination, so it's unlikely. Lebanon requires nothing from Washington at all: "The Israelis interpret the American no as being extremely wishy washy. And to be frank, they're probably right." He also clarifies the Iranian red line, which was never all of Lebanon. It was Beirut. Trita Parsi

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🇮🇷 The country that just took $300B in damage may actually be sitting at the strongest bargaining position it has ever held. Executive Vice President of the Quincy Institute Trita Parsi just laid it all out. "To not take advantage of that is a huge risk." Iran wins battles but keeps losing the peace. The clock is ticking. Trita Parsi

🇮🇷 The country that just took $300B in damage may actually be sitting at the strongest bargaining position it has ever held. Executive Vice President of the Quincy Institute Trita Parsi just laid it all out. "To not take advantage of that is a huge risk." Iran wins battles but keeps losing the peace. The clock is ticking. Trita Parsi

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🇺🇸 🇮🇷 A humiliated Trump after the midterms may be more willing to strike Iran, not less. Trita Parsi, Quincy Institute EVP, says Tehran expects a weakened president to be easier to handle, and he thinks that reads the man backwards. He points to late 2020, when he says Trump went looking for a confrontation with Iran and the Joint Chiefs stepped in to stop it: "This is an administration whose strategic compass is the mood of the president on any given day." Trita Parsi

🇺🇸 🇮🇷 A humiliated Trump after the midterms may be more willing to strike Iran, not less. Trita Parsi, Quincy Institute EVP, says Tehran expects a weakened president to be easier to handle, and he thinks that reads the man backwards. He points to late 2020, when he says Trump went looking for a confrontation with Iran and the Joint Chiefs stepped in to stop it: "This is an administration whose strategic compass is the mood of the president on any given day." Trita Parsi

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Laura Loomer Secretary Marco Rubio Trita Parsi NIAC Quincy Institute Trita is a big threat to national security as it is confirmed he’s a regime lobbyist. Iranians have been trying to expose him for years. He and NIAC are sponsors of the no war protests and the propaganda spread all across media and social platforms in favor of the islamic regime.

Laura Loomer Secretary Marco Rubio Trita Parsi NIAC Quincy Institute Trita is a big threat to national security as it is confirmed he’s a regime lobbyist. Iranians have been trying to expose him for years. He and NIAC are sponsors of the no war protests and the propaganda spread all across media and social platforms in favor of the islamic regime.

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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The real story of these negotiations is buried, and it cuts against the simple narrative. Trita Parsi explained how the U.S. and Iran are not simply stuck in a seemingly hopeless deadlock as it's often portrayed. "There's been a lot of concessions on all sides, which is actually what a real negotiation ultimately means." The problem is Trump's envoys kept negotiating orally, without interpreters, without written records, and without the president's sign-off. Trita Parsi

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The real story of these negotiations is buried, and it cuts against the simple narrative. Trita Parsi explained how the U.S. and Iran are not simply stuck in a seemingly hopeless deadlock as it's often portrayed. "There's been a lot of concessions on all sides, which is actually what a real negotiation ultimately means." The problem is Trump's envoys kept negotiating orally, without interpreters, without written records, and without the president's sign-off. Trita Parsi

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Trita Parsi, Executive Vice President of the Quincy Institute, says Iran had offered major nuclear concessions and that Trump could have claimed a strong diplomatic victory, but instead pursued escalation to seek submission rather than advance US interests.

Trita Parsi, Executive Vice President of the Quincy Institute, says Iran had offered major nuclear concessions and that Trump could have claimed a strong diplomatic victory, but instead pursued escalation to seek submission rather than advance US interests.

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🚨🇺🇸 🇮🇷 WHY TEHRAN IS REJECTING THE CEASEFIRE While Washington reaches out for a quick exit, Tehran views a quick ceasefire as a trap that would only allow the U.S. and Israel to restock interceptors and remobilize for another strike in six months. For the Iranians, the war won’t end until the “Empire” feels enough pain to stop the cycle for good. Full interview with Trita Parsi below

🚨🇺🇸 🇮🇷 WHY TEHRAN IS REJECTING THE CEASEFIRE While Washington reaches out for a quick exit, Tehran views a quick ceasefire as a trap that would only allow the U.S. and Israel to restock interceptors and remobilize for another strike in six months. For the Iranians, the war won’t end until the “Empire” feels enough pain to stop the cycle for good. Full interview with Trita Parsi below

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🇮🇷 🇺🇸 Washington may have to choose between Iranian control of the strait and no shipping at all. Trita Parsi says the real American standard was never about who owns the water, only that traffic keeps moving. Faced with bad options, the administration may decide that oil flowing under Iranian terms, fees included, beats a strait nobody uses. But Tehran's position has hardened. Parsi thought Iran would accept an arrangement including Oman and other Gulf states. Now the formula is stricter: only countries with territorial waters in the strait get a seat, which means Iran and Oman alone. That rule was designed to dilute Iranian control, and Iran just closed the door on it. Trita Parsi

🇮🇷 🇺🇸 Washington may have to choose between Iranian control of the strait and no shipping at all. Trita Parsi says the real American standard was never about who owns the water, only that traffic keeps moving. Faced with bad options, the administration may decide that oil flowing under Iranian terms, fees included, beats a strait nobody uses. But Tehran's position has hardened. Parsi thought Iran would accept an arrangement including Oman and other Gulf states. Now the formula is stricter: only countries with territorial waters in the strait get a seat, which means Iran and Oman alone. That rule was designed to dilute Iranian control, and Iran just closed the door on it. Trita Parsi

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🇺🇸 Trump walking away is the most likely outcome. Trita Parsi says there's a 70% chance that Trump gets zero concessions from Iran and concedes the Strait of Hormuz. "He walks away. He doesn't get a deal signed. He doesn't get nuclear concessions. He doesn't give sanctions relief. The Iranians continue to control the Strait." The US already knows it. That's why they tried to cut themselves in on the tolls. Trita Parsi

🇺🇸 Trump walking away is the most likely outcome. Trita Parsi says there's a 70% chance that Trump gets zero concessions from Iran and concedes the Strait of Hormuz. "He walks away. He doesn't get a deal signed. He doesn't get nuclear concessions. He doesn't give sanctions relief. The Iranians continue to control the Strait." The US already knows it. That's why they tried to cut themselves in on the tolls. Trita Parsi

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 A much larger war is now MORE likely than a quick de-escalation. Trita Parsi, Quincy Institute EVP and Middle East analyst, delivers one of the most sober assessments you'll hear. What looked like a performative strike phase could easily slip out of control, because the difference between a pressure tactic and a catastrophe is razor thin right now. The strikes started as theater, designed to signal rather than destroy. Parsi's warning is that theater has a habit of becoming real, and the odds have already flipped in the wrong direction. Trita Parsi

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 A much larger war is now MORE likely than a quick de-escalation. Trita Parsi, Quincy Institute EVP and Middle East analyst, delivers one of the most sober assessments you'll hear. What looked like a performative strike phase could easily slip out of control, because the difference between a pressure tactic and a catastrophe is razor thin right now. The strikes started as theater, designed to signal rather than destroy. Parsi's warning is that theater has a habit of becoming real, and the odds have already flipped in the wrong direction. Trita Parsi

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump may have complicated his own negotiations by announcing progress before Iran had even responded. Quincy Institute vice president Trita Parsi argues that going public too early increased the political pressure on both sides and left less room for compromise. "He was counting on a much faster response than has come, because the Iranians actually have not fully responded yet." The more public the negotiation becomes, the harder it is for either side to make concessions. Trita Parsi

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump may have complicated his own negotiations by announcing progress before Iran had even responded. Quincy Institute vice president Trita Parsi argues that going public too early increased the political pressure on both sides and left less room for compromise. "He was counting on a much faster response than has come, because the Iranians actually have not fully responded yet." The more public the negotiation becomes, the harder it is for either side to make concessions. Trita Parsi

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🚨🇮🇷🇺🇸THIS WAR IS ALREADY FALLING APART Trita Parsi says the strategy isn’t working, and other countries are refusing to join what’s becoming a global mess. He says allies weren’t consulted, don’t see a clear plan, and aren’t willing to sign up for a war that’s spiraling with no exit. Trita Parsi

🚨🇮🇷🇺🇸THIS WAR IS ALREADY FALLING APART Trita Parsi says the strategy isn’t working, and other countries are refusing to join what’s becoming a global mess. He says allies weren’t consulted, don’t see a clear plan, and aren’t willing to sign up for a war that’s spiraling with no exit. Trita Parsi

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🇺🇸🇮🇱 Israel opposes any US deal with Iran, because a deal means sanctions relief. Trita Parsi says that's where American and Israeli interests split wide open. Washington can declare victory with an agreement. Jerusalem loses the shackles it spent decades building. He goes after the think tanks too, naming the FDD: "All it has led to is a devastating situation for the US national interest." Trita Parsi & Jonathan Conricus

🇺🇸🇮🇱 Israel opposes any US deal with Iran, because a deal means sanctions relief. Trita Parsi says that's where American and Israeli interests split wide open. Washington can declare victory with an agreement. Jerusalem loses the shackles it spent decades building. He goes after the think tanks too, naming the FDD: "All it has led to is a devastating situation for the US national interest." Trita Parsi & Jonathan Conricus

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🇸🇦 🇮🇷 Saudi built a coalition to face Iran, and not one member wants to fight. Trita Parsi, Quincy Institute EVP and Middle East analyst, looks at the Multinational Maritime Defense Coalition, Pakistan, Turkey, Nigeria, several Gulf states, and sees countries trying to replace a balancer that no longer works, because American military threats have lost their bite after two rounds of war ended badly: "Does Pakistan want to go to war with Iran? Does Turkey? None of them do." His read is that this is positioning for a future negotiation rather than a war front, a way to face Tehran together before the bargaining starts. And the UAE staying out points to the other target nobody names publicly: Israel. Trita Parsi

🇸🇦 🇮🇷 Saudi built a coalition to face Iran, and not one member wants to fight. Trita Parsi, Quincy Institute EVP and Middle East analyst, looks at the Multinational Maritime Defense Coalition, Pakistan, Turkey, Nigeria, several Gulf states, and sees countries trying to replace a balancer that no longer works, because American military threats have lost their bite after two rounds of war ended badly: "Does Pakistan want to go to war with Iran? Does Turkey? None of them do." His read is that this is positioning for a future negotiation rather than a war front, a way to face Tehran together before the bargaining starts. And the UAE staying out points to the other target nobody names publicly: Israel. Trita Parsi

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🇮🇷 🇺🇸 America's entire strategy to contain Iran just collapsed, and Tehran walked out stronger. Middle East analyst Trita Parsi says Washington's decades-long effort to isolate and contain Iran has officially fallen apart, and the war only sped it up. Tehran came out of the conflict in a stronger spot, largely by weaponizing its own geography. The biggest prize is its leverage over the Strait of Hormuz. But Parsi adds a key caveat: Iran's internal economic strife means it can't afford to play that card recklessly, since choking the strait would hurt Tehran nearly as much as everyone else. Trita Parsi

🇮🇷 🇺🇸 America's entire strategy to contain Iran just collapsed, and Tehran walked out stronger. Middle East analyst Trita Parsi says Washington's decades-long effort to isolate and contain Iran has officially fallen apart, and the war only sped it up. Tehran came out of the conflict in a stronger spot, largely by weaponizing its own geography. The biggest prize is its leverage over the Strait of Hormuz. But Parsi adds a key caveat: Iran's internal economic strife means it can't afford to play that card recklessly, since choking the strait would hurt Tehran nearly as much as everyone else. Trita Parsi

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump already threw everything he had at the Iranian regime. It didn't change anything. Trita Parsi explains why going back to war would be a catastrophic mistake. "To gamble that away by going back into a war again, based on some sort of a fantasy that a knockout strike is in the cards, it would be just astonishingly foolish in my view." Trump has a ceasefire. The only question is whether he's smart enough to keep it. Trita Parsi

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump already threw everything he had at the Iranian regime. It didn't change anything. Trita Parsi explains why going back to war would be a catastrophic mistake. "To gamble that away by going back into a war again, based on some sort of a fantasy that a knockout strike is in the cards, it would be just astonishingly foolish in my view." Trump has a ceasefire. The only question is whether he's smart enough to keep it. Trita Parsi

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