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🚨🇦🇪🇮🇷 Satellite images reportedly show fires at 2 pumping stations on the Habshan-Fujairah pipeline, the route that lets Abu Dhabi ship crude without going through Hormuz. If that’s indeed what Iran hit, this is bigger than a disruption. They may be going after the escape route U.S. allies use...

944,747 次观看 • 4 个月前 •via X (Twitter)

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Every fire exit the Gulf built to survive a Hormuz closure is being burned by the country that closed Hormuz. The Habshan-Fujairah pipeline was constructed in 2012 for exactly this scenario. A 380-kilometre bypass carrying 1.5 to 1.8 million barrels per day of Abu Dhabi crude directly to the Gulf of Oman, avoiding the Strait of Hormuz entirely. It was the insurance policy. The infrastructure that guaranteed the UAE could export oil even if Iran shut down the strait. Satellite imagery confirmed today shows fires at two pumping stations along that pipeline. Iran hit the insurance policy. This is not an isolated strike. It is a systematic campaign. On March 3, drone debris set fire to the Fujairah Oil Terminal, the pipeline’s destination, where 70 million barrels of storage sits across 15 tank farms. On March 14 and 16, successive drone strikes hit the Fujairah zone again, suspending loading operations. Iran struck Dubai International Airport’s fuel tank, shutting down the busiest airport in the Middle East. Iran struck the Shah gas field. Iran struck Oman’s Salalah port. Iran struck a Kuwait desalination plant. Iran hit Ras Laffan, the heart of Qatar’s LNG. Every facility the Gulf spent decades building to reduce Hormuz dependence has been struck within thirty days of the strait closing. The only remaining major bypass is Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline to Yanbu on the Red Sea, 1,200 kilometres of exposed desert with multiple vulnerable pump stations. The Houthis, who entered the war on March 28, have explicitly warned that closing Bab al-Mandeb is “among our options.” If the Red Sea exit closes, the last bypass dies. The Gulf’s entire alternative infrastructure, built over forty years and hundreds of billions of dollars, would be neutralised by a combination of Iranian drones costing less than a Toyota and Houthi missiles fired from the poorest country in the Arab world. Iran’s strategy is not to win the air war. It cannot. Seventy percent of its launchers are degraded. Its navy is destroyed. But none of that matters if Tehran can demonstrate that every molecule of Gulf oil, whether it flows through Hormuz or around it, passes within range of Iranian or proxy weapons. The message is actuarial, not military. Every alternative route that the insurance market might deem safe has been struck at least once. Every risk model has been updated with a confirmed incident. The fire exit has been set on fire. The insurance premium for the bypass is now the same as the premium for the front door. The Gulf states did everything right. They diversified. They built pipelines. They invested in alternative ports. They prepared for the Hormuz scenario for forty years. And in thirty days, Iran demonstrated that preparing for the scenario and surviving it are not the same thing, because the preparation assumed the adversary would not think to burn the fire exits. The adversary thought of it.

Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡

59,152 次观看 • 4 个月前

🚨 Secretary Marco Rubio just delivered a BRUTAL wake-up call to U.S. allies refusing to step up on the Strait of Hormuz. “We depend very little on the straits — this is a problem for the WORLD.” RUBIO: “Well, the Straits of Hormuz, those are international waters, so anything Iran does to impede commercial traffic is illegal.” “For all these countries that like to talk about international law, it is a violation of international maritime law to impede the free flow of travel in international waters, so that’s number one.” “Number two, it’s illegal to bomb and hit and attack commercial shipping, and sink them.” “That’s what the Nazis did during World War II in the Atlantic, and that’s what they are doing now to ships from countries they don’t like, flagged by countries they don’t like.” “These are TERRORISTIC acts that they are undertaking.” “So the United States gets very little energy through the Strait of Hormuz.” “Our allies ship out a lot of oil through there...and certainly countries in Asia and Europe on it.” “We depend very little on the straits, if, in fact, Iran decides to set up a toll, if, in fact, Iran decides that they are going to illegally control the Straits of Hormuz...” “I imagine that will be the president’s call whether he wants to help but this is a problem for the world.” “It’s countries around the world that should be stepping up and dealing with that and saying that’s intolerable and that’s what we’ve encouraged them to do.” Rubio just exposed the truth — Iran is committing terroristic acts in international waters and America’s allies are sitting on their hands.

Overton

33,495 次观看 • 4 个月前

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran is turning Hormuz into the price of ending the war, and the U.S may now face an impossible choice. Shipping through the Strait has reportedly fallen from roughly 130–140 vessels a day before the war to just SIX yesterday, and the positions on both sides appear to be getting further apart. Iran is now tying the full reopening of Hormuz to a much bigger package of demands: End the war and blockade, release frozen Iranian assets, and secure a broader regional ceasefire encompassing Lebanon and Gaza. Only then does the Strait fully reopen. Iran and Oman may be getting closer to agreeing HOW shipping would operate through Hormuz, but that doesn't mean Tehran has agreed to actually reopen it yet. And while the diplomacy drags on, the physical situation is getting worse. Kpler figures suggest oil flows have fallen to around 2.2 million barrels per day, compared with roughly 20 million barrels of oil and petroleum products transiting daily before the war. Which brings us to what may be the biggest strategic shift of the entire conflict. According to a U.S military intelligence assessment, Iran's strategic priority may increasingly be moving away from its nuclear program, and toward control of Hormuz itself. Think about what that means. For decades, Iran sought deterrence through its nuclear program, ballistic missiles and regional allies. But this war may have accidentally handed Tehran something capable of inflicting immediate economic pain on the entire world: Hormuz. "The Strait of Hormuz IS their nuclear weapon." Not literally as a military deterrent, but economically, the leverage is extraordinary, and that leaves Trump with horrible options. Accept some version of Iran's demands and potentially end the war with Tehran exercising MORE authority over Hormuz than it had before the fighting began. Or attempt to break Iranian control militarily. But the U.S military assessment warns that doing so could be lengthy, costly, and deadly, with no guarantee it would even work. The Iran war may not actually be ending; it may simply be frozen, with both sides waiting for the moment when they think they can win the next round.

Mario Nawfal

366,811 次观看 • 13 天前