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Satya Nadella says that when Microsoft put a billion dollars into OpenAI in 2019, everybody thought the money was being burned: "Who would have thought in 2019 that there is a smart idea to go put a billion dollars?" "Everybody thought we were just burning a billion dollars." "It...

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Karl Mehta

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26,966 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce •via X (Twitter)

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VR Vadoothker profil fotoğrafı
VR Vadoothker1 ay önce

Since you are talking on natural language break through. Reinforcement learning at huge cost, top down engineering is more complicated and wastage. Word chemistry infinite to desired . Bottom up engineering leafs to deterministic parallel reasoning through semstics. Here, learning will be not be there, language machine making.

Panky profil fotoğrafı
Panky1 ay önce

It’s so embarrassing to see , how tech leaders have become like their contemporaries in FIN . How about telling complete truth ;” MSFT did invent a billion , however with a condition of 1 Billion commit to azure ” . Thats called as, easiest way to buy Revenue using cash flow .

Sentient Yoghurt profil fotoğrafı
Sentient Yoghurt1 ay önce

Every time I've pivoted, investors assumed something was wrong. Microsoft saw a team finding the right problem and backed it with a billion.

Oliver S profil fotoğrafı
Oliver S1 ay önce

Fascinating that Microsoft's patience on natural language goes back to early MS Research. When OpenAI pivoted from RL to language and scaling laws, it was the signal they'd been waiting for. Bold bets look like burning money until they don't!

Valentine profil fotoğrafı
Valentine1 ay önce

We blew $3k on cold email infra. Felt dumb until reply rates hit 23%. What was their early signal?

Steve Khayat profil fotoğrafı
Steve Khayat28 gün önce

This is a great reminder that conviction often looks irrational before it looks obvious. The best investors aren't just betting on companies. They're betting on long-term technological shifts before the market fully appreciates them. In hindsight, the $1B looks brilliant. In 2019, it looked uncomfortable. That's usually where outsized returns come from.

Second Order Research profil fotoğrafı
Second Order Research1 ay önce

This is such a good example of why big bets look obvious only in hindsight. The real edge wasn’t just having $1B to invest. Microsoft had spent years thinking about natural language, so when OpenAI’s work started lining up with that thesis, they knew what they were looking at. A lot of “luck” is really preparation meeting the right inflection point.

Venkatesh Sankaran profil fotoğrafı
Venkatesh Sankaran1 ay önce

@satyanadella proved how the billion dollar @OpenAI bet was built on recognition of a pivot rather than conviction showing how OpenAI moved off reinforcement learning onto natural language and scaling laws

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Bill Gates told Satya Nadella that Microsoft's 2019 $1B investment in OpenAI was the equivalent of lighting the money on fire. What did it mean for Microsoft to invest in the unproven nonprofit? "I didn't put in that billion dollars saying 'Oh yeah, this is going to be a hundred bagger.' That's not what was going through our heads." "We had a high risk tolerance and we said we want to go and give this a shot."
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Bill Gates told Satya Nadella that Microsoft's 2019 $1B investment in OpenAI was the equivalent of lighting the money on fire. What did it mean for Microsoft to invest in the unproven nonprofit? "I didn't put in that billion dollars saying 'Oh yeah, this is going to be a hundred bagger.' That's not what was going through our heads." "We had a high risk tolerance and we said we want to go and give this a shot."

TBPN

538,322 görüntüleme • 11 ay önce

Microsoft is deceiving you by inflating its AI empire with money it handed its OWN customer first. They sold Wall Street a $37 billion AI business, then went silent the moment its own filing showed where that money came from. The line sits in the annual report for fiscal 2026: Microsoft recorded $24.1 billion of revenue from commercial arrangements with OpenAI, including revenue sharing payments. If you run that figure against Microsoft's own AI disclosures you'll find that OpenAI made up more than half, and likely around 70%, of everything the company counts as AI sales. ONE customer. A Microsoft spokesperson confirmed the figure covers all sales and revenue share from OpenAI. The 70% comes by assuming Microsoft's AI run rate kept growing at the 123% pace the company itself reported in March, which is the company's own optimistic math turned around on it. Now follow where that money starts: Microsoft has put around $12 billion into OpenAI since 2019. OpenAI spends its cash on computing power, and Microsoft is the cloud provider selling it. So the money leaves as an investment and comes back as an Azure bill. Microsoft then books that bill as AI revenue and shows it to investors as proof the AI business is "working." Microsoft invests in OpenAI -> OpenAI buys Microsoft compute -> Microsoft records the payment as AI revenue -> the AI growth story goes to Wall Street And a chunk of it never actually arrived. The same filing shows $6 billion of accounts receivable from OpenAI as of June 30. That is $6 billion of AI revenue Microsoft booked and had not been paid when the year closed. Now here's where it gets really concerning for anyone holding the stock... Microsoft has told the public how big its total AI business is exactly twice. Once for the quarter ending December 2024, when it said the unit was on pace for more than $13 billion a year. And once for the quarter ending March 2026, when Satya Nadella put it on pace for $37 billion. That $37 billion number went everywhere. It was the headline proof that Microsoft had won the AI race. Then fourth quarter earnings arrived, and Microsoft did NOT update it. The company that had been announcing the figure as its own scoreboard stopped announcing the figure. In the same stretch, the filing landed showing where most of it came from. So what is actually left underneath? The full year AI business ran near $34 billion. Take OpenAI out and roughly $10 billion remains. Microsoft has spent about $261 billion on capital expenditure since the start of 2022. That is the scale of the bet against what the rest of the AI business currently brings in. And the one customer holding it up is walking further away every quarter. In October, Microsoft's stake in OpenAI dropped to 27% from 32.5%. In April the partnership was rewritten so OpenAI can sell its products across any cloud it likes, which is how Amazon got a seat at the table. The exclusivity that made this arrangement valuable is gone. The compute bill and the unpaid $6 billion are still on Microsoft's books. Nadella spent two years telling the market Microsoft built the largest AI business in software. The filing shows one client bought most of it, on credit, using money Microsoft partly supplied. So watch the next earnings call: If Microsoft puts a fresh total AI number back on the board, the business found customers beyond OpenAI. If you hear a lot about AI momentum and never hear what it adds up to, you already know why the number went missing. But nonetheless, how is something like this even legal?
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Microsoft is deceiving you by inflating its AI empire with money it handed its OWN customer first. They sold Wall Street a $37 billion AI business, then went silent the moment its own filing showed where that money came from. The line sits in the annual report for fiscal 2026: Microsoft recorded $24.1 billion of revenue from commercial arrangements with OpenAI, including revenue sharing payments. If you run that figure against Microsoft's own AI disclosures you'll find that OpenAI made up more than half, and likely around 70%, of everything the company counts as AI sales. ONE customer. A Microsoft spokesperson confirmed the figure covers all sales and revenue share from OpenAI. The 70% comes by assuming Microsoft's AI run rate kept growing at the 123% pace the company itself reported in March, which is the company's own optimistic math turned around on it. Now follow where that money starts: Microsoft has put around $12 billion into OpenAI since 2019. OpenAI spends its cash on computing power, and Microsoft is the cloud provider selling it. So the money leaves as an investment and comes back as an Azure bill. Microsoft then books that bill as AI revenue and shows it to investors as proof the AI business is "working." Microsoft invests in OpenAI -> OpenAI buys Microsoft compute -> Microsoft records the payment as AI revenue -> the AI growth story goes to Wall Street And a chunk of it never actually arrived. The same filing shows $6 billion of accounts receivable from OpenAI as of June 30. That is $6 billion of AI revenue Microsoft booked and had not been paid when the year closed. Now here's where it gets really concerning for anyone holding the stock... Microsoft has told the public how big its total AI business is exactly twice. Once for the quarter ending December 2024, when it said the unit was on pace for more than $13 billion a year. And once for the quarter ending March 2026, when Satya Nadella put it on pace for $37 billion. That $37 billion number went everywhere. It was the headline proof that Microsoft had won the AI race. Then fourth quarter earnings arrived, and Microsoft did NOT update it. The company that had been announcing the figure as its own scoreboard stopped announcing the figure. In the same stretch, the filing landed showing where most of it came from. So what is actually left underneath? The full year AI business ran near $34 billion. Take OpenAI out and roughly $10 billion remains. Microsoft has spent about $261 billion on capital expenditure since the start of 2022. That is the scale of the bet against what the rest of the AI business currently brings in. And the one customer holding it up is walking further away every quarter. In October, Microsoft's stake in OpenAI dropped to 27% from 32.5%. In April the partnership was rewritten so OpenAI can sell its products across any cloud it likes, which is how Amazon got a seat at the table. The exclusivity that made this arrangement valuable is gone. The compute bill and the unpaid $6 billion are still on Microsoft's books. Nadella spent two years telling the market Microsoft built the largest AI business in software. The filing shows one client bought most of it, on credit, using money Microsoft partly supplied. So watch the next earnings call: If Microsoft puts a fresh total AI number back on the board, the business found customers beyond OpenAI. If you hear a lot about AI momentum and never hear what it adds up to, you already know why the number went missing. But nonetheless, how is something like this even legal?

Ricardo

24,389 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

One of the most astonishing attempts at projecting grandiose delusions I’ve ever seen—“so [Obama] tried to bribe them to make a deal… 1.7 billion in cash was put on a Boeing…” Trump bribed Iran with $324 billion. And got nothing for it. “And the main thing is that Iran will not have a nuclear weapon. They fully agreed to that with strong policing powers, and they won't have nuclear weapons, which is what I was all about, because they probably would have used it if they had it. So we had two big moments when they terminated the JCPOA, that was the Obama deal, the Barrack Hussein Obama deal, and when I terminated that, it was very important because it was a road to a nuclear weapon. It was a horrible deal for the United States. It was a deal where billions of dollars was given to Iran. It was a deal where 1.7 billion in cash was put on a Boeing 7, well, not a 7, 7, 57, I guess, right? But it was put on a big, beautiful Boeing 757. They needed a Boeing 747 to be honest with you, because it was a lot of cash. 1.7 billion was taken out of the banks and given to Iran, and on top of that, tens of billions of dollars was made. So they tried to bribe them to make a deal that didn't work. It never works. And that we lived on a great job, and hopefully it's going to be a good relationship, and we're going to get along. And if we don't, we go back to where we started, but I don't know if it's going to be necessary. The Iran deal that we made is going to bring a lot of success to the world, because the oil was really plugged up there for a while. They would call me on occasion, "See, come on, please. Let's go." The oil prices. But the oil is coming way down.”
1:39

One of the most astonishing attempts at projecting grandiose delusions I’ve ever seen—“so [Obama] tried to bribe them to make a deal… 1.7 billion in cash was put on a Boeing…” Trump bribed Iran with $324 billion. And got nothing for it. “And the main thing is that Iran will not have a nuclear weapon. They fully agreed to that with strong policing powers, and they won't have nuclear weapons, which is what I was all about, because they probably would have used it if they had it. So we had two big moments when they terminated the JCPOA, that was the Obama deal, the Barrack Hussein Obama deal, and when I terminated that, it was very important because it was a road to a nuclear weapon. It was a horrible deal for the United States. It was a deal where billions of dollars was given to Iran. It was a deal where 1.7 billion in cash was put on a Boeing 7, well, not a 7, 7, 57, I guess, right? But it was put on a big, beautiful Boeing 757. They needed a Boeing 747 to be honest with you, because it was a lot of cash. 1.7 billion was taken out of the banks and given to Iran, and on top of that, tens of billions of dollars was made. So they tried to bribe them to make a deal that didn't work. It never works. And that we lived on a great job, and hopefully it's going to be a good relationship, and we're going to get along. And if we don't, we go back to where we started, but I don't know if it's going to be necessary. The Iran deal that we made is going to bring a lot of success to the world, because the oil was really plugged up there for a while. They would call me on occasion, "See, come on, please. Let's go." The oil prices. But the oil is coming way down.”

Jim Stewartson, Decelerationist 🇨🇦🇺🇦🇺🇸

31,475 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

David Sacks says he's heard from Anthropic employees who thought they could 10x ARR in one year to $600 billion from when they were at $60 billion, now currently sitting at $80 billion and not slowing down. "I have heard from other people at the company -- I heard that when they were at about $60 billion of ARR, that they thought they could get to $600 billion in one year." "Meaning they thought they were on that 10x ramp from the middle of this year." "Now they're at over $80 [billion] and it doesn't seem to be slowing down." "So the big question is how fast can they grow next year -- does it go all the way from $100 or $120 [billion] to a trillion dollars?" "Look, if they merely got to $400 to $500 billion, that would make them the biggest software company." Baker: "If they get to $200 billion, that's an amazing outcome."
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David Sacks says he's heard from Anthropic employees who thought they could 10x ARR in one year to $600 billion from when they were at $60 billion, now currently sitting at $80 billion and not slowing down. "I have heard from other people at the company -- I heard that when they were at about $60 billion of ARR, that they thought they could get to $600 billion in one year." "Meaning they thought they were on that 10x ramp from the middle of this year." "Now they're at over $80 [billion] and it doesn't seem to be slowing down." "So the big question is how fast can they grow next year -- does it go all the way from $100 or $120 [billion] to a trillion dollars?" "Look, if they merely got to $400 to $500 billion, that would make them the biggest software company." Baker: "If they get to $200 billion, that's an amazing outcome."

Fireside Alpha

389,147 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

I asked Nikhil Basu Trivedi about investing in Canva's Seed round in 2014 (last valued at $42 billion): "I look for founders who are obsessed with their product. Always making it better. Continuing to invest in a competitive advantage, and not sitting on their laurels. You look at Mel and Cliff at Canva, and there was nothing on their resume that they would be that way. They grew up in Perth, had started a yearbook company, and then a software company around design. But they were just so ambitious from the early days. They were talking about taking on companies like Google and Microsoft. And how much bigger of an opportunity that was than just going after Adobe. It's the everyday person's work suite. Slides, video editing, documents. It has everything. Despite getting no's from a lot of investors, they were thinking that way in 2014. It was six months post launch, and things were going well with 100k MAU's growing 30-40% organically per month. But the level of ambition they had for what it could become was pretty amazing."
3:30

I asked Nikhil Basu Trivedi about investing in Canva's Seed round in 2014 (last valued at $42 billion): "I look for founders who are obsessed with their product. Always making it better. Continuing to invest in a competitive advantage, and not sitting on their laurels. You look at Mel and Cliff at Canva, and there was nothing on their resume that they would be that way. They grew up in Perth, had started a yearbook company, and then a software company around design. But they were just so ambitious from the early days. They were talking about taking on companies like Google and Microsoft. And how much bigger of an opportunity that was than just going after Adobe. It's the everyday person's work suite. Slides, video editing, documents. It has everything. Despite getting no's from a lot of investors, they were thinking that way in 2014. It was six months post launch, and things were going well with 100k MAU's growing 30-40% organically per month. But the level of ambition they had for what it could become was pretty amazing."

The Peel

10,316 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce

OPENAI IS GOING TO TAKE THIS ENTIRE MARKET DOWN WITH IT And you don't have to own a single share to get hurt. What I'm about to explain should worry anybody who thinks they're diversified: OpenAI is a LOAD-BEARING company. Pull it out and the whole structure comes down. They spent $17.2 billion on Microsoft Azure in calendar 2025, which is 69% of Microsoft's entire year-over-year growth. Take that one customer out and Azure grew 8%, which barely beats inflation. Now look at what Microsoft just reported: The backlog everyone is celebrating came in at $678 billion, up 84%, and the stock ripped. Sounds fantastic until you realize that when you exclude OpenAI the backlog grew only 25%. Back in January, when that number was $625 billion, roughly $281 billion of it was owed by one private company nobody can audit. And Oracle is in even WORSE shape. Something like $300 billion of its backlog, more than half, rides on the same counterparty. So you think you own Microsoft, Oracle, Amazon, CoreWeave, Nvidia and SoftBank? What you actually own is the same trade 6 different ways, and every leg of it runs back to one company that burns cash and still cannot go public. The people with real money are already backing out. Julien Garran pointed out that Masayoshi Son could not get a $10 billion bridge loan against his own OpenAI shares. Think about that for a second, because nobody says no to that man. Blue Owl walked away from a $10 billion Oracle financing. Three months ago the banks were dancing near the door and now they are walking through it. Then there is Julien's depreciation work, which makes this even worse: Run the capex schedule out and hyperscaler net income falls 98% by 2033. To break even they would need to build 20 killer apps inside 6 years. Another Google Search. Another YouTube. Another Office. They have not built ONE. If OpenAI cannot go public in the next 8 months, they are dead. Whenever you see hubris and debt in the same room, run, don't walk.
2:33

OPENAI IS GOING TO TAKE THIS ENTIRE MARKET DOWN WITH IT And you don't have to own a single share to get hurt. What I'm about to explain should worry anybody who thinks they're diversified: OpenAI is a LOAD-BEARING company. Pull it out and the whole structure comes down. They spent $17.2 billion on Microsoft Azure in calendar 2025, which is 69% of Microsoft's entire year-over-year growth. Take that one customer out and Azure grew 8%, which barely beats inflation. Now look at what Microsoft just reported: The backlog everyone is celebrating came in at $678 billion, up 84%, and the stock ripped. Sounds fantastic until you realize that when you exclude OpenAI the backlog grew only 25%. Back in January, when that number was $625 billion, roughly $281 billion of it was owed by one private company nobody can audit. And Oracle is in even WORSE shape. Something like $300 billion of its backlog, more than half, rides on the same counterparty. So you think you own Microsoft, Oracle, Amazon, CoreWeave, Nvidia and SoftBank? What you actually own is the same trade 6 different ways, and every leg of it runs back to one company that burns cash and still cannot go public. The people with real money are already backing out. Julien Garran pointed out that Masayoshi Son could not get a $10 billion bridge loan against his own OpenAI shares. Think about that for a second, because nobody says no to that man. Blue Owl walked away from a $10 billion Oracle financing. Three months ago the banks were dancing near the door and now they are walking through it. Then there is Julien's depreciation work, which makes this even worse: Run the capex schedule out and hyperscaler net income falls 98% by 2033. To break even they would need to build 20 killer apps inside 6 years. Another Google Search. Another YouTube. Another Office. They have not built ONE. If OpenAI cannot go public in the next 8 months, they are dead. Whenever you see hubris and debt in the same room, run, don't walk.

George Noble

294,808 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

Baier: I just got off the phone with the president…. I asked, “what you are saying is you know there is somebody on the ground in Iran that is going to rise up?” He said, “yeah, I feel there is. I feel that and some of them are no longer with us to be honest because it was 49 leaders that were taken out. That was going to take four weeks we thought to get rid of the Iranian leadership and it is always, you know, if they hide, it is a lot longer than four weeks. They would have been hiding. We were shocked when we heard what was going on. We knew exactly what was happening… they are talking about using people now that nobody ever heard of—even they don't know. They are using people, studying people to be the leader that even they don't know who they are. Can you believe that?” I said it's a tough succession plan in Iran. He said, “49 leaders is deep. It's very deep. When they met, they met for breakfast. They assumed it was good for a lot of reasons. Number one they didn't think we knew. You never attack in the morning having to do with wind and sun and a lot of things. It was amazing that we knew everything we knew.”
1:48

Baier: I just got off the phone with the president…. I asked, “what you are saying is you know there is somebody on the ground in Iran that is going to rise up?” He said, “yeah, I feel there is. I feel that and some of them are no longer with us to be honest because it was 49 leaders that were taken out. That was going to take four weeks we thought to get rid of the Iranian leadership and it is always, you know, if they hide, it is a lot longer than four weeks. They would have been hiding. We were shocked when we heard what was going on. We knew exactly what was happening… they are talking about using people now that nobody ever heard of—even they don't know. They are using people, studying people to be the leader that even they don't know who they are. Can you believe that?” I said it's a tough succession plan in Iran. He said, “49 leaders is deep. It's very deep. When they met, they met for breakfast. They assumed it was good for a lot of reasons. Number one they didn't think we knew. You never attack in the morning having to do with wind and sun and a lot of things. It was amazing that we knew everything we knew.”

Acyn

1,065,464 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce

Satya Nadella just clarified the Microsoft open Ai deal and the terms what they signed for Azure. Here is exactly how he breaks down the partnership How it was Essentially think of OpenAI having a PaaS business and a SaaS business. The SaaS business is ChatGPT. Their PaaS business is their API. That API is Azure exclusive. The SaaS business, they can run it anywhere. If they want a partner and that partner wants to use a stateless API, then Azure is the place where they can get the stateless API. for even that they'll have to come to Azure. For any custom agreement like that. There are some few exceptions, the US government and so on, that we made, but other than that, they'd have to come to Azure. Open Ai can host there Chat Gpt consumer app wherever they want there wish but when it comes to developers or enterprise want to build on top of Open Ai models Microsoft owned the pipeline.
3:11

Satya Nadella just clarified the Microsoft open Ai deal and the terms what they signed for Azure. Here is exactly how he breaks down the partnership How it was Essentially think of OpenAI having a PaaS business and a SaaS business. The SaaS business is ChatGPT. Their PaaS business is their API. That API is Azure exclusive. The SaaS business, they can run it anywhere. If they want a partner and that partner wants to use a stateless API, then Azure is the place where they can get the stateless API. for even that they'll have to come to Azure. For any custom agreement like that. There are some few exceptions, the US government and so on, that we made, but other than that, they'd have to come to Azure. Open Ai can host there Chat Gpt consumer app wherever they want there wish but when it comes to developers or enterprise want to build on top of Open Ai models Microsoft owned the pipeline.

Vikram M

102,664 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

Microsoft just betrayed OpenAI and Anthropic, the two companies it helped build. And it could break the entire AI trade... Here's what happened: Inside Excel and Outlook, two of the most used business apps on Earth, Microsoft has started routing tens of thousands of AI requests every week to its own in-house models instead of OpenAI and Anthropic. Microsoft's own AI chief, Mustafa Suleyman, said himself: "We pay a lot of money to Anthropic, so our goal is to reduce and ultimately ELIMINATE that cost." This is the company that poured $13 billion into OpenAI and effectively created the modern AI industry, and it just decided the most advanced models on the market are NOT worth paying for. And here's the thing... Microsoft is not just ripping out OpenAI everywhere - it is being surgical about it. The hardest and rarest tasks can still go to OpenAI or Anthropic. What Microsoft is taking back is the boring, high-volume work, like the email replies, the thread summaries, and the simple spreadsheet formulas. Why does that matter so much? Because that boring, repetitive work is where the actual money lives. The frontier labs assumed businesses would push BILLIONS of these tiny requests through expensive models forever. That endless river of tokens is the entire reason OpenAI and Anthropic are valued in the hundreds of billions of dollars. Microsoft looked at that river, decided it was massively overpaying, and rerouted it to models it owns outright. So the single biggest customer in the industry just walked off with the most profitable part of the business. And it is not only Microsoft: That same week, CNBC reported that American companies have been escaping to Chinese AI models to dodge rising US prices. Chinese models now handle more than 30% of US companies' AI usage on one major platform, peaking at 46%, up from an average of 11% a year earlier. They cost 60 to 90% less, and on some benchmarks they land within a single point of the best American model. One US startup moved ALL of its AI traffic off Claude and onto China's DeepSeek, and expects to save millions. Meanwhile Meta just admitted it has "excess" AI compute it wants to sell, becoming the first giant to concede it built far too much. Do you see the pattern forming? For two years, the entire AI story rested on one assumption: Every company on Earth would happily pay premium prices for the best model, forever. That assumption literally died in a single week. And the market noticed. More than a trillion dollars has been wiped off AI and chip stocks in a matter of days, as Wall Street finally started asking whether all of this spending will ever pay for itself. What this means for OpenAI and Anthropic: Their models are extraordinary, and it may not matter because their own biggest customers have decided they do not NEED the best model in the world to answer an email, and "good enough" now costs a fraction of the price. When even Microsoft refuses to pay full price for AI, the real question becomes who exactly IS left to pay it. What do you think?
1:05

Microsoft just betrayed OpenAI and Anthropic, the two companies it helped build. And it could break the entire AI trade... Here's what happened: Inside Excel and Outlook, two of the most used business apps on Earth, Microsoft has started routing tens of thousands of AI requests every week to its own in-house models instead of OpenAI and Anthropic. Microsoft's own AI chief, Mustafa Suleyman, said himself: "We pay a lot of money to Anthropic, so our goal is to reduce and ultimately ELIMINATE that cost." This is the company that poured $13 billion into OpenAI and effectively created the modern AI industry, and it just decided the most advanced models on the market are NOT worth paying for. And here's the thing... Microsoft is not just ripping out OpenAI everywhere - it is being surgical about it. The hardest and rarest tasks can still go to OpenAI or Anthropic. What Microsoft is taking back is the boring, high-volume work, like the email replies, the thread summaries, and the simple spreadsheet formulas. Why does that matter so much? Because that boring, repetitive work is where the actual money lives. The frontier labs assumed businesses would push BILLIONS of these tiny requests through expensive models forever. That endless river of tokens is the entire reason OpenAI and Anthropic are valued in the hundreds of billions of dollars. Microsoft looked at that river, decided it was massively overpaying, and rerouted it to models it owns outright. So the single biggest customer in the industry just walked off with the most profitable part of the business. And it is not only Microsoft: That same week, CNBC reported that American companies have been escaping to Chinese AI models to dodge rising US prices. Chinese models now handle more than 30% of US companies' AI usage on one major platform, peaking at 46%, up from an average of 11% a year earlier. They cost 60 to 90% less, and on some benchmarks they land within a single point of the best American model. One US startup moved ALL of its AI traffic off Claude and onto China's DeepSeek, and expects to save millions. Meanwhile Meta just admitted it has "excess" AI compute it wants to sell, becoming the first giant to concede it built far too much. Do you see the pattern forming? For two years, the entire AI story rested on one assumption: Every company on Earth would happily pay premium prices for the best model, forever. That assumption literally died in a single week. And the market noticed. More than a trillion dollars has been wiped off AI and chip stocks in a matter of days, as Wall Street finally started asking whether all of this spending will ever pay for itself. What this means for OpenAI and Anthropic: Their models are extraordinary, and it may not matter because their own biggest customers have decided they do not NEED the best model in the world to answer an email, and "good enough" now costs a fraction of the price. When even Microsoft refuses to pay full price for AI, the real question becomes who exactly IS left to pay it. What do you think?

Ricardo

93,654 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

🚨 PRESIDENT TRUMP JUST NOW: "The main thing is that Iran will not have a nuclear weapon!" "They fully agreed to that with strong POLICING powers and they won't have a nuclear weapon, which is what it was all about because they probably would have used it if they had it." "So we had two big moments when we terminated the JCPOA, that was the Obama deal, the Barack Hussein Obama deal." "And when I terminated, that was very important because it was a road to a nuclear weapon. It was a horrible deal for the United States. It was a deal where billions of dollars was given to Iran."
0:53

🚨 PRESIDENT TRUMP JUST NOW: "The main thing is that Iran will not have a nuclear weapon!" "They fully agreed to that with strong POLICING powers and they won't have a nuclear weapon, which is what it was all about because they probably would have used it if they had it." "So we had two big moments when we terminated the JCPOA, that was the Obama deal, the Barack Hussein Obama deal." "And when I terminated, that was very important because it was a road to a nuclear weapon. It was a horrible deal for the United States. It was a deal where billions of dollars was given to Iran."

Eric Daugherty

76,637 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

LIVE from Davos: Satya Nadella joins the Besties! 🚨 Satya Nadella sits down with @jason and David Sacks from the main stage at USA House! -- Future of AI copilots and agents: how white collar work will change -- Scaling revenue and profits with flat headcount -- Views on diffusion and having the US AI stack win globally -- Foundation model concerns?: OpenAI's IP, will open-source win? -- SaaS adoption in the age of AI (0:00) Jason and Sacks welcome Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella (1:31) Future of AI copilots and agents, impact on white collar work (8:01) How Microsoft has scaled revenue and profits with flat headcount (10:50) The extreme competition in AI: Microsoft, xAI, Google, OpenAI, Anthropic (12:39) Views on diffusion, how the US tech stack can win globally (19:59) OpenAI deal, owning the IP, thoughts on open-source winning AI, Microsoft's AI stack, do they need a foundation model? (26:08) What enterprise software adoption looks like in the age of AI
31:59

LIVE from Davos: Satya Nadella joins the Besties! 🚨 Satya Nadella sits down with @jason and David Sacks from the main stage at USA House! -- Future of AI copilots and agents: how white collar work will change -- Scaling revenue and profits with flat headcount -- Views on diffusion and having the US AI stack win globally -- Foundation model concerns?: OpenAI's IP, will open-source win? -- SaaS adoption in the age of AI (0:00) Jason and Sacks welcome Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella (1:31) Future of AI copilots and agents, impact on white collar work (8:01) How Microsoft has scaled revenue and profits with flat headcount (10:50) The extreme competition in AI: Microsoft, xAI, Google, OpenAI, Anthropic (12:39) Views on diffusion, how the US tech stack can win globally (19:59) OpenAI deal, owning the IP, thoughts on open-source winning AI, Microsoft's AI stack, do they need a foundation model? (26:08) What enterprise software adoption looks like in the age of AI

The All-In Podcast

860,370 görüntüleme • 8 ay önce

Today, I was the lone no vote on increasing the fuel revenue indexing tax. Several people talked about how they’ve generated one billion dollars in revenue from this tax. They’ve made that money off the backs of hard-working people in Clark County who are buying gas who have to get to work - they are paying a tax. That’s where the one billion dollars came from. Now they want to extend it for another ten years. But unlike in 2016 when it was passed on the ballot, now they want to do so without a vote of the people. Yes, we need roads and we need people put to work, but it should have been done the correct way — by a vote of the people.
3:35

Today, I was the lone no vote on increasing the fuel revenue indexing tax. Several people talked about how they’ve generated one billion dollars in revenue from this tax. They’ve made that money off the backs of hard-working people in Clark County who are buying gas who have to get to work - they are paying a tax. That’s where the one billion dollars came from. Now they want to extend it for another ten years. But unlike in 2016 when it was passed on the ballot, now they want to do so without a vote of the people. Yes, we need roads and we need people put to work, but it should have been done the correct way — by a vote of the people.

April Becker

20,121 görüntüleme • 10 ay önce

Dr. Phil GOES OFF on the CDC: “You Damn Well Knew What You Were Doing When You Did It” “They knew that those schools were a lifeline to those kids ... and they shut it down anyway.” “You had information that these children were not as susceptible to this disease as everyone else was. You knew they were in a mental health crisis. You knew this was their lifeline, and you yanked it out from under them, and you damn well knew what you were doing when you did it.” It gets worse. The CDC knew schools staying open was essential for protecting children from their abusers at home. “They shut all of that down. And when they did, those [child abuse] referrals dropped 40% to 50% in some major markets. And these kids were sent home behind closed doors, locked up with the very abusers.” “And so, you ask questions about it, and they say, well, we did the best we could with what we knew at the time. No, you DID NOT do the best you could with what you knew at the time.”
2:57

Dr. Phil GOES OFF on the CDC: “You Damn Well Knew What You Were Doing When You Did It” “They knew that those schools were a lifeline to those kids ... and they shut it down anyway.” “You had information that these children were not as susceptible to this disease as everyone else was. You knew they were in a mental health crisis. You knew this was their lifeline, and you yanked it out from under them, and you damn well knew what you were doing when you did it.” It gets worse. The CDC knew schools staying open was essential for protecting children from their abusers at home. “They shut all of that down. And when they did, those [child abuse] referrals dropped 40% to 50% in some major markets. And these kids were sent home behind closed doors, locked up with the very abusers.” “And so, you ask questions about it, and they say, well, we did the best we could with what we knew at the time. No, you DID NOT do the best you could with what you knew at the time.”

The Vigilant Fox 🦊

951,675 görüntüleme • 2 yıl önce

Rep. Roy: “And it goes beyond Fauci…Why aren't we hauling Deborah Birx in front of a committee? Why don't we haul a whole host of the bureaucrats at the NIH and the CDC who were all very well advised of what was going on. How about those federal employees that were trying to get the grants for Fauci? Why don't we look to see what they knew and when they knew it?”
1:43

Rep. Roy: “And it goes beyond Fauci…Why aren't we hauling Deborah Birx in front of a committee? Why don't we haul a whole host of the bureaucrats at the NIH and the CDC who were all very well advised of what was going on. How about those federal employees that were trying to get the grants for Fauci? Why don't we look to see what they knew and when they knew it?”

Rep. Chip Roy Press Office

11,680 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce

Ed Zitron says there is no post-dotcom-style recovery here, because outside OpenAI and Anthropic all of AI barely sells $22 billion against a trillion spent "The post-dotcom bubble thing people say is, well, after that there was demand from the internet." "That's very different to demand for generative AI." "Right now the demand we have for generative AI is predominantly subsidized, and most people who experience it are not paying the real cost." "On top of that, we already have all of the possible marketing in the world." "We have the largest, most disingenuous marketing campaign in the history of man, pushing this up the hill." "We have the apex predator of cloud software, Microsoft. They can only get single-digit billions from selling AI software." "And Christ almighty, outside of OpenAI and Anthropic, we barely get $22 billion." "And the thing is, $22 billion is a large amount to you and me. It's not a large amount of money when you spent a trillion-plus dollars." "When you have Anthropic and OpenAI with $1.1 trillion worth of cloud commitments, and on top of that, how does this turn into a post-dotcom bubble thing?" "A data center built today is going to be as expensive to run in 2050 as it is today unless there's some breakthrough in electricity."
1:08

Ed Zitron says there is no post-dotcom-style recovery here, because outside OpenAI and Anthropic all of AI barely sells $22 billion against a trillion spent "The post-dotcom bubble thing people say is, well, after that there was demand from the internet." "That's very different to demand for generative AI." "Right now the demand we have for generative AI is predominantly subsidized, and most people who experience it are not paying the real cost." "On top of that, we already have all of the possible marketing in the world." "We have the largest, most disingenuous marketing campaign in the history of man, pushing this up the hill." "We have the apex predator of cloud software, Microsoft. They can only get single-digit billions from selling AI software." "And Christ almighty, outside of OpenAI and Anthropic, we barely get $22 billion." "And the thing is, $22 billion is a large amount to you and me. It's not a large amount of money when you spent a trillion-plus dollars." "When you have Anthropic and OpenAI with $1.1 trillion worth of cloud commitments, and on top of that, how does this turn into a post-dotcom bubble thing?" "A data center built today is going to be as expensive to run in 2050 as it is today unless there's some breakthrough in electricity."

Fireside Alpha

127,520 görüntüleme • 1 ay önce