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SITUATION EXPLAINED: What happens to open source when the US restricts access to frontier AI models? We asked Adrian Dittmann: "China is releasing these models [open source] to gain international dominance, people will work on these things and say, 'Hey, maybe I can contribute to this if it's open... source.' This is the thing that actually gets them talent." "If you're not allowed into the next GPT release or you're not allowed to use Fable, then what are you gonna do? You're stuck with the existing stuff, or you will have to use an open source model that might have subtly better capabilities." "The United States will catch up to open source in some form as well. They seem to just be maximizing product creation." "The problem with open source models is you have to be kind of a nerd in order to use them properly. Consumer facing, the effects will be minimal because the average person doesn't care about open source models. They only care whether or not they can do a quick search with Gemini or ChatGPT."show more

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ELON: CHINA HAS THE BEST OPEN SOURCE AI MODELS RIGHT NOW “The best open source models are generally from China, which is bizarre. I think the second best one, or maybe it’s better than second best, is Grok 2.5. The open source model is actually very good, and we will continue to open source our models.” Source: The All-In Podcast

ELON: CHINA HAS THE BEST OPEN SOURCE AI MODELS RIGHT NOW “The best open source models are generally from China, which is bizarre. I think the second best one, or maybe it’s better than second best, is Grok 2.5. The open source model is actually very good, and we will continue to open source our models.” Source: The All-In Podcast

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In between major AI model breakthroughs, new models still ship, but they’re not fundamentally expanding what you can do with them. Braintrust CEO Ankur Goyal says that’s exactly when open source starts to surge: "When new models come out, people forget about open source and forget about economics because it changes fundamentally what you can do." "Programming is a good example. The workflow today is completely different than it was a year ago. If you tried to use models from a year ago today, you wouldn't be able to do crazy stuff like OpenClaw or whatever people are building nowadays." "When models don't change at that speed, people optimize the performance on the use cases that they have." "If you look at usage on our platform, almost half the token usage is coming from open source models from a very small number of companies that have figured out how to optimize use cases really well."

In between major AI model breakthroughs, new models still ship, but they’re not fundamentally expanding what you can do with them. Braintrust CEO Ankur Goyal says that’s exactly when open source starts to surge: "When new models come out, people forget about open source and forget about economics because it changes fundamentally what you can do." "Programming is a good example. The workflow today is completely different than it was a year ago. If you tried to use models from a year ago today, you wouldn't be able to do crazy stuff like OpenClaw or whatever people are building nowadays." "When models don't change at that speed, people optimize the performance on the use cases that they have." "If you look at usage on our platform, almost half the token usage is coming from open source models from a very small number of companies that have figured out how to optimize use cases really well."

TBPN

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Sam Altman on Open Source AI's Future⁣ ⁣ "Right now, what everybody wants is just the most capable frontier coding model they can have. The big frontier models, even if we made them open source, are hard to run." — #sama

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AI Insights

19,607 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

“We have a crisis of open source models in the Western world. Outside of China, there are no good open source models. We don't even have any in the US now. The talent, the capital and the focus to be best-in-class at pre-training, mid-training, post-training is an extremely scarce skillset. The answer for a lot of countries may just be to take an open weights model from China, post-train or fine-tune their own version, and have that be what they start from." Everett Randle Why does the West have such poor open source models and is it a national security threat to rely on open-source Chinese models Demis Hassabis Yann LeCun Aidan Gomez Lilian Weng Jan Leike

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Harry Stebbings

63,672 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

.Josh Wolfe: Anybody Using DeepSeek App Is 'Absolute Fool' "Anybody using the DeepSeek app is an absolute fool. If you're using DeepSeek on companies like Together Compute, one of Lux's companies, which can get rid of the CCP censorship, then it's probably okay. But remember, the open-source movement is something we deeply believe in. Most great technologists, entrepreneurs, and venture capitalists are on the side of open source. The closed-source models that have consumed tens of billions of dollars are the ones that are really going to be at risk. When you look at Hugging Face, a major repository, or Together Compute, Runway ML, and a lot of Lux's companies, they have been pioneers in open source. Now, why am I not worried about open source, even with the DeepSeek model? As long as you don't have the CCP censorship on it, the models with their open weights allow people to run on their proprietary data. This means companies like pharma or defense companies that have their own siloed, proprietary data—think about Bloomberg with their proprietary longitudinal data, or Meta with their data—are the ones who will have the edge. Even as open source takes hold, these companies will still dominate. I’m not worried about open source being the problem. I’m more concerned about people overfunding closed models with no proprietary source. A lot of capital is going to be burned there, and we’re already seeing that with people worried about OpenAI in some aspects."

.Josh Wolfe: Anybody Using DeepSeek App Is 'Absolute Fool' "Anybody using the DeepSeek app is an absolute fool. If you're using DeepSeek on companies like Together Compute, one of Lux's companies, which can get rid of the CCP censorship, then it's probably okay. But remember, the open-source movement is something we deeply believe in. Most great technologists, entrepreneurs, and venture capitalists are on the side of open source. The closed-source models that have consumed tens of billions of dollars are the ones that are really going to be at risk. When you look at Hugging Face, a major repository, or Together Compute, Runway ML, and a lot of Lux's companies, they have been pioneers in open source. Now, why am I not worried about open source, even with the DeepSeek model? As long as you don't have the CCP censorship on it, the models with their open weights allow people to run on their proprietary data. This means companies like pharma or defense companies that have their own siloed, proprietary data—think about Bloomberg with their proprietary longitudinal data, or Meta with their data—are the ones who will have the edge. Even as open source takes hold, these companies will still dominate. I’m not worried about open source being the problem. I’m more concerned about people overfunding closed models with no proprietary source. A lot of capital is going to be burned there, and we’re already seeing that with people worried about OpenAI in some aspects."

Josh Caplan

39,985 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

Announcing the Open Model Series: a new series on open source AI models, with merve of Hugging Face. Hugging Face is the open model hub: it hosts model weights, datasets, evals, & demo apps, and maintains the open-source libraries (like transformers) used to run and train them. I think of it like GitHub, but for AI models. You can download open models and run them on your own machines. In this series we'll cover what open source and open weight models are, how they work, how to run them yourself, and why they're important. By the way - this video is edited entirely with Claude! I can make a tutorial on how I did it. If there's a question you want answered about open models, leave it in the comments. We will read them all. Episode 1 is out soon.

Announcing the Open Model Series: a new series on open source AI models, with merve of Hugging Face. Hugging Face is the open model hub: it hosts model weights, datasets, evals, & demo apps, and maintains the open-source libraries (like transformers) used to run and train them. I think of it like GitHub, but for AI models. You can download open models and run them on your own machines. In this series we'll cover what open source and open weight models are, how they work, how to run them yourself, and why they're important. By the way - this video is edited entirely with Claude! I can make a tutorial on how I did it. If there's a question you want answered about open models, leave it in the comments. We will read them all. Episode 1 is out soon.

Harper Carroll

30,392 Aufrufe • vor 9 Tagen

Earlier this week at GTC, we announced our partnership with Nvidia. We will work with Nvidia to build strong, American open-source models that are at the frontier of scientific reasoning. These models will be essential for the US to compete with China on science in the coming decades. Jensen is committing to spend tens of billions of dollars developing open-source models, and we are excited to be a partner with them in figuring out how to benchmark, train and use those agents to accelerate scientific research. We have already open-sourced some of the work we have done with them, and are looking forward to open-sourcing more. There are few things today that are more important. See our blog post below, and watch the video to learn more, narrated by the man himself.

Earlier this week at GTC, we announced our partnership with Nvidia. We will work with Nvidia to build strong, American open-source models that are at the frontier of scientific reasoning. These models will be essential for the US to compete with China on science in the coming decades. Jensen is committing to spend tens of billions of dollars developing open-source models, and we are excited to be a partner with them in figuring out how to benchmark, train and use those agents to accelerate scientific research. We have already open-sourced some of the work we have done with them, and are looking forward to open-sourcing more. There are few things today that are more important. See our blog post below, and watch the video to learn more, narrated by the man himself.

Sam Rodriques

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FROM THE LIVE SHOW: Matt Hicks (Matt Hicks), President & CEO of Red Hat, on open source and collaboration. "I love the model that open source provides because it provides this incredible collaboration." "This is why we're passionate about smaller models, because they allow that collaborative, open source ethos to thrive a little bit better than the frontier models."

FROM THE LIVE SHOW: Matt Hicks (Matt Hicks), President & CEO of Red Hat, on open source and collaboration. "I love the model that open source provides because it provides this incredible collaboration." "This is why we're passionate about smaller models, because they allow that collaborative, open source ethos to thrive a little bit better than the frontier models."

Forward Future

12,538 Aufrufe • vor 10 Monaten

David Sacks: Anthropic Wants to Ban Open Source AI in America Listen to All-In to stay a few weeks (or months) ahead of everyone else David Sacks back in May: “I think where it's all leading to is an effort to ban open source models. There's a lot of breadcrumbs leading here. You look at a lot of the rhetoric around how models need to have guardrails, and that with open source models, the guardrails can be removed and therefore they're dangerous. You see this rhetoric already in Anthropic's blog posts. Any threat that they describe, they kind of go out of their way to take that shot at open source models. They're trying to create ideas or put predicate facts in the public record to justify an action later on. I think it's just a matter of time before they feel like they're at a position where maybe they can push for that type of ban directly.”

David Sacks: Anthropic Wants to Ban Open Source AI in America Listen to All-In to stay a few weeks (or months) ahead of everyone else David Sacks back in May: “I think where it's all leading to is an effort to ban open source models. There's a lot of breadcrumbs leading here. You look at a lot of the rhetoric around how models need to have guardrails, and that with open source models, the guardrails can be removed and therefore they're dangerous. You see this rhetoric already in Anthropic's blog posts. Any threat that they describe, they kind of go out of their way to take that shot at open source models. They're trying to create ideas or put predicate facts in the public record to justify an action later on. I think it's just a matter of time before they feel like they're at a position where maybe they can push for that type of ban directly.”

The All-In Podcast

86,749 Aufrufe • vor 20 Tagen

.Bill Gurley “I don’t think politicians understand how powerful open source is as a competitive weapon. If you have ten companies all doing open source, the minute an idea is shared, it's available to the other ten and they absorb it immediately. I think the odds that the U.S., with two proprietary models, can stay ahead of China, with ten open source ones, is very low.”

.Bill Gurley “I don’t think politicians understand how powerful open source is as a competitive weapon. If you have ten companies all doing open source, the minute an idea is shared, it's available to the other ten and they absorb it immediately. I think the odds that the U.S., with two proprietary models, can stay ahead of China, with ten open source ones, is very low.”

Codie Sanchez

65,669 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

.Decagon co-founder and CEO Jesse Zhang says enterprise open-source adoption is falling right now, and that's a sign of adoption rather than rejection: "Even though there's a lot of hype for open-source, the share of open-source inference is actually going down right now." "People are spinning up all these new use cases, and if you're spinning up new use cases, of course you're gonna use the frontier models until they're working." "Once it's at that point, they're heavily incentivized to use open-source because it's way cheaper and faster." "Enterprises have a lot of desire to move, but they can only do so many use cases at once. There is inertia there, and they have to go through all the model risk governance and all the security things." "I think it'll take time, but it will get there." Jesse Zhang

.Decagon co-founder and CEO Jesse Zhang says enterprise open-source adoption is falling right now, and that's a sign of adoption rather than rejection: "Even though there's a lot of hype for open-source, the share of open-source inference is actually going down right now." "People are spinning up all these new use cases, and if you're spinning up new use cases, of course you're gonna use the frontier models until they're working." "Once it's at that point, they're heavily incentivized to use open-source because it's way cheaper and faster." "Enterprises have a lot of desire to move, but they can only do so many use cases at once. There is inertia there, and they have to go through all the model risk governance and all the security things." "I think it'll take time, but it will get there." Jesse Zhang

a16z

35,742 Aufrufe • vor 11 Tagen

David Sacks says companies are trapped paying OpenAI & Anthropic because they can't figure out how to use open source models "I think enterprise CTOs would like to shift their token consumption to cheaper models for the obvious reason that it would be more efficient. They are seeing compute costs or token costs skyrocket right now, so everyone's trying to figure this out." "You also have the AI sovereignty issue that Alex Karp talked about. They're worried about giving up the secret sauce or the alpha in their business to a frontier lab that may one day be competing with them. "The problem is, I think in most cases, they don't have the technical ability to do it. Coinbase figured out how to do it. DoorDash figured out how to do it. They built a token routing system that allows them to send frontier tasks to frontier models and non frontier tasks to more mundane models. But I don't think your average enterprise has the technical capability to do that." "This is why the share of wallet of closed models, it actually increased. I think that open source went from 19% last year to 11% this year. So open source as a share of enterprise spending is actually decreasing." "I don't think that means usage is decreasing. I think usage is skyrocketing. It also may be the case that because the whole point of using an open model is you just pay for the compute costs, you don't have to pay a lab, so it may be that it's hard to measure that usage in terms of spend." "But nonetheless, anyone who's saying that these closed models are going to lose or are somehow losing, you're just not seeing it in the data."

David Sacks says companies are trapped paying OpenAI & Anthropic because they can't figure out how to use open source models "I think enterprise CTOs would like to shift their token consumption to cheaper models for the obvious reason that it would be more efficient. They are seeing compute costs or token costs skyrocket right now, so everyone's trying to figure this out." "You also have the AI sovereignty issue that Alex Karp talked about. They're worried about giving up the secret sauce or the alpha in their business to a frontier lab that may one day be competing with them. "The problem is, I think in most cases, they don't have the technical ability to do it. Coinbase figured out how to do it. DoorDash figured out how to do it. They built a token routing system that allows them to send frontier tasks to frontier models and non frontier tasks to more mundane models. But I don't think your average enterprise has the technical capability to do that." "This is why the share of wallet of closed models, it actually increased. I think that open source went from 19% last year to 11% this year. So open source as a share of enterprise spending is actually decreasing." "I don't think that means usage is decreasing. I think usage is skyrocketing. It also may be the case that because the whole point of using an open model is you just pay for the compute costs, you don't have to pay a lab, so it may be that it's hard to measure that usage in terms of spend." "But nonetheless, anyone who's saying that these closed models are going to lose or are somehow losing, you're just not seeing it in the data."

dnap

110,354 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

David Sacks: Anthropic Is Trying to Crush Open Source AI and the American Developers Who Use It David Sacks: “I know people don't have a lot of sympathy for Chinese companies, that's fine. I'm not defending Chinese companies. I'm defending American developers who need to be able to use everything in the public domain. And let me give you an example. Cursor rolled out its new product, Composer 2. They were able to post-train that model using Kimi K2.5 on their own proprietary coding data. They started with a Chinese open source model, and then they used their own data, and they came up with a new derivative product. This is the way that open source works. You take things that are in the public domain, you fork them, you make them your own. And by the way, once it's in the public domain, it's not a Chinese model anymore. No data is going back to China, nothing's going back to China. An American company has taken open source contributions in the public domain, made it their own, and then developed their own model. And if you say that American companies can't do that, or that somehow it's tainted with IP theft, you are basically going to put a dagger through the heart of the entire American open source ecosystem. And that is exactly what Anthropic wants, because they do not want to have the competition.”

David Sacks: Anthropic Is Trying to Crush Open Source AI and the American Developers Who Use It David Sacks: “I know people don't have a lot of sympathy for Chinese companies, that's fine. I'm not defending Chinese companies. I'm defending American developers who need to be able to use everything in the public domain. And let me give you an example. Cursor rolled out its new product, Composer 2. They were able to post-train that model using Kimi K2.5 on their own proprietary coding data. They started with a Chinese open source model, and then they used their own data, and they came up with a new derivative product. This is the way that open source works. You take things that are in the public domain, you fork them, you make them your own. And by the way, once it's in the public domain, it's not a Chinese model anymore. No data is going back to China, nothing's going back to China. An American company has taken open source contributions in the public domain, made it their own, and then developed their own model. And if you say that American companies can't do that, or that somehow it's tainted with IP theft, you are basically going to put a dagger through the heart of the entire American open source ecosystem. And that is exactly what Anthropic wants, because they do not want to have the competition.”

The All-In Podcast

277,426 Aufrufe • vor 18 Tagen

Why the largest enterprises will not use Chinese models and how regulation will enforce that "Given the regulatory environment in the US, it's probably more likely that we see a great American open-source competitor arise. We're going to have at least one massive, multi-hundred-billion-dollar, if not trillion-dollar, American company focused on American-first open source. The largest enterprises will want an American open source alternative." Anastasios Nikolas Angelopoulos What are large US enterprises more scared of; frontier models competing with them or Chinese models and data security? Jason Warner Eiso Kant Josh Wolfe Horace He Martin Ziqiao Ma John Schulman

Why the largest enterprises will not use Chinese models and how regulation will enforce that "Given the regulatory environment in the US, it's probably more likely that we see a great American open-source competitor arise. We're going to have at least one massive, multi-hundred-billion-dollar, if not trillion-dollar, American company focused on American-first open source. The largest enterprises will want an American open source alternative." Anastasios Nikolas Angelopoulos What are large US enterprises more scared of; frontier models competing with them or Chinese models and data security? Jason Warner Eiso Kant Josh Wolfe Horace He Martin Ziqiao Ma John Schulman

Harry Stebbings

19,299 Aufrufe • vor 7 Tagen

David Sacks says the data kills the open-source-is-winning narrative, closed models just went from 81% to 89% of enterprise spend. "This is why the share of wallet of closed models actually increased. I think that open source went from 19% last year to 11% this year. So open source as a share of enterprise spending is actually decreasing... Anyone who's saying these closed models are somehow losing, you're just not seeing it in the data." "Nikesh Arora said enterprises would like what he called model fungibility. They would love to commoditize these models and just hot swap them, headless. But then what do you do about memory, context, history? No one's really figured out a way to abstract that stuff away from the model yet."

David Sacks says the data kills the open-source-is-winning narrative, closed models just went from 81% to 89% of enterprise spend. "This is why the share of wallet of closed models actually increased. I think that open source went from 19% last year to 11% this year. So open source as a share of enterprise spending is actually decreasing... Anyone who's saying these closed models are somehow losing, you're just not seeing it in the data." "Nikesh Arora said enterprises would like what he called model fungibility. They would love to commoditize these models and just hot swap them, headless. But then what do you do about memory, context, history? No one's really figured out a way to abstract that stuff away from the model yet."

Fireside Alpha

54,383 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

Jason Calacanis: Anthropic, OpenAI and others are trying to kill OpenClaw Why? Because an open source agent platform is an existential threat to frontier model companies. @jason: “ People are going to say I'm a conspiracy theorist, but the number one goal, I believe, in the large language model, frontier model space, is to kill (OpenClaw). This is a giant movement to stop it, because this is the equivalent of having an open source Android-like player in the market, and that could be incredibly disruptive. Because, I believe, open source is going to win the day on the large language models and take 90% of the token usage, and I think the entire frontier model space could be undercut by open source. And I think they realize that SLMs, the smaller language models that are verticalized now, that will run on desktops and laptops and are even starting to run on the top ones, that is their biggest competitive threat, and I hope it happens.”

Jason Calacanis: Anthropic, OpenAI and others are trying to kill OpenClaw Why? Because an open source agent platform is an existential threat to frontier model companies. @jason: “ People are going to say I'm a conspiracy theorist, but the number one goal, I believe, in the large language model, frontier model space, is to kill (OpenClaw). This is a giant movement to stop it, because this is the equivalent of having an open source Android-like player in the market, and that could be incredibly disruptive. Because, I believe, open source is going to win the day on the large language models and take 90% of the token usage, and I think the entire frontier model space could be undercut by open source. And I think they realize that SLMs, the smaller language models that are verticalized now, that will run on desktops and laptops and are even starting to run on the top ones, that is their biggest competitive threat, and I hope it happens.”

The All-In Podcast

64,611 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

Following the release of Kimi K3, tylercowen explains why trying to ban Chinese open-source AI models is a losing strategy and that American companies should compete instead. "Open source is coming and is here, whether we like it or not. Of course, a lot of it will be from China. We should allow American competitors to proceed on an even footing. But the attempt to outlaw it, ban it, or use sanctions against it is going to fail miserably.” "I plead that the Trump administration gives up on this crusade. It will not work."

Following the release of Kimi K3, tylercowen explains why trying to ban Chinese open-source AI models is a losing strategy and that American companies should compete instead. "Open source is coming and is here, whether we like it or not. Of course, a lot of it will be from China. We should allow American competitors to proceed on an even footing. But the attempt to outlaw it, ban it, or use sanctions against it is going to fail miserably.” "I plead that the Trump administration gives up on this crusade. It will not work."

TBPN

137,380 Aufrufe • vor 22 Tagen

Sam on Kimi, distillation, and open source: “I have always assumed that there are going to be great cheap models in the world, and we better be the greatest and the cheapest. You get a better deal today, at least at a particular latency, using OpenAI's models than Kimi. We distill our own models. That’s how we make smaller, cheaper models. That’s a very good thing to do. There will clearly be an important place for open source models in the world and people that will want their own weights. We have so much usage of our models that we do not need to be a gigantically high-margin business to be able to afford model training. I would rather people not distill from us, for sure. But this is not in my top ten list of worries.”

Sam on Kimi, distillation, and open source: “I have always assumed that there are going to be great cheap models in the world, and we better be the greatest and the cheapest. You get a better deal today, at least at a particular latency, using OpenAI's models than Kimi. We distill our own models. That’s how we make smaller, cheaper models. That’s a very good thing to do. There will clearly be an important place for open source models in the world and people that will want their own weights. We have so much usage of our models that we do not need to be a gigantically high-margin business to be able to afford model training. I would rather people not distill from us, for sure. But this is not in my top ten list of worries.”

Patrick OShaughnessy

268,228 Aufrufe • vor 15 Tagen