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SITUATION EXPLAINED: What happens to open source when the US restricts access to frontier AI models? We asked Adrian Dittmann: "China is releasing these models [open source] to gain international dominance, people will work on these things and say, 'Hey, maybe I can contribute to this if it's open...

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ELON: CHINA HAS THE BEST OPEN SOURCE AI MODELS RIGHT NOW “The best open source models are generally from China, which is bizarre. I think the second best one, or maybe it’s better than second best, is Grok 2.5. The open source model is actually very good, and we will continue to open source our models.” Source: The All-In Podcast

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Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei on Open-Source AI Models. "I don't think open source works the same way in AI that it has worked in other areas. Primarily because with open source you can see the source code of the model. Here we can't see inside the model, it's often called open weights instead of open source to kind of distinguish that. But a lot of the benefits, which is that many people can work on it and that it's kind of additive, don't quite work in the same way. So I've actually always seen it as a red herring. When I see a new model come out I don't care whether it's open source or not. If we talk about Deep Seek I don't think it mattered that Deep Seek is open source. I think I ask, is it a good model? Is it better than us at the things that matter? That's the only thing that I care about. It actually doesn't matter either way. Because ultimately you have to host it on the cloud. The people who host it on the cloud do inference. These are big models, they're hard to do inference on. When I think about competition I think about which models are good at the tasks that we do. I think open source is actually a red herring. It's not free. You have to run it on inference and someone has to make it fast on inference." --- From 'Alex Kantrowitz' YT channel

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In between major AI model breakthroughs, new models still ship, but they’re not fundamentally expanding what you can do with them. Braintrust CEO Ankur Goyal says that’s exactly when open source starts to surge: "When new models come out, people forget about open source and forget about economics because it changes fundamentally what you can do." "Programming is a good example. The workflow today is completely different than it was a year ago. If you tried to use models from a year ago today, you wouldn't be able to do crazy stuff like OpenClaw or whatever people are building nowadays." "When models don't change at that speed, people optimize the performance on the use cases that they have." "If you look at usage on our platform, almost half the token usage is coming from open source models from a very small number of companies that have figured out how to optimize use cases really well."

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Sam Altman on Open Source AI's Future⁣ ⁣ "Right now, what everybody wants is just the most capable frontier coding model they can have. The big frontier models, even if we made them open source, are hard to run." — #sama

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“We have a crisis of open source models in the Western world. Outside of China, there are no good open source models. We don't even have any in the US now. The talent, the capital and the focus to be best-in-class at pre-training, mid-training, post-training is an extremely scarce skillset. The answer for a lot of countries may just be to take an open weights model from China, post-train or fine-tune their own version, and have that be what they start from." Everett Randle Why does the West have such poor open source models and is it a national security threat to rely on open-source Chinese models Demis Hassabis Yann LeCun Aidan Gomez Lilian Weng Jan Leike
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“We have a crisis of open source models in the Western world. Outside of China, there are no good open source models. We don't even have any in the US now. The talent, the capital and the focus to be best-in-class at pre-training, mid-training, post-training is an extremely scarce skillset. The answer for a lot of countries may just be to take an open weights model from China, post-train or fine-tune their own version, and have that be what they start from." Everett Randle Why does the West have such poor open source models and is it a national security threat to rely on open-source Chinese models Demis Hassabis Yann LeCun Aidan Gomez Lilian Weng Jan Leike

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OPEN SOURCE AI IS WINNING — CLOSED MODELS CAN’T COMPETE Kai-Fu Lee — former Google China president and now head of AI venture firm Sinovation Ventures — says the future of AI belongs to open source, not closed systems like OpenAI or Anthropic. LEE: “It’s become clear that open source will be the winner. The issue really isn't whose model is 1% better is OpenAI's model even sustainable? OpenAI’s costs of $7M DeepSeek probably operated with 2% the operating expense. Here you have a competitor coming in with an open source model that's for free. Sam Altman is probably not sleeping well.” Source: Ai
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OPEN SOURCE AI IS WINNING — CLOSED MODELS CAN’T COMPETE Kai-Fu Lee — former Google China president and now head of AI venture firm Sinovation Ventures — says the future of AI belongs to open source, not closed systems like OpenAI or Anthropic. LEE: “It’s become clear that open source will be the winner. The issue really isn't whose model is 1% better is OpenAI's model even sustainable? OpenAI’s costs of $7M DeepSeek probably operated with 2% the operating expense. Here you have a competitor coming in with an open source model that's for free. Sam Altman is probably not sleeping well.” Source: Ai

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Earlier this week at GTC, we announced our partnership with Nvidia. We will work with Nvidia to build strong, American open-source models that are at the frontier of scientific reasoning. These models will be essential for the US to compete with China on science in the coming decades. Jensen is committing to spend tens of billions of dollars developing open-source models, and we are excited to be a partner with them in figuring out how to benchmark, train and use those agents to accelerate scientific research. We have already open-sourced some of the work we have done with them, and are looking forward to open-sourcing more. There are few things today that are more important. See our blog post below, and watch the video to learn more, narrated by the man himself.
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Earlier this week at GTC, we announced our partnership with Nvidia. We will work with Nvidia to build strong, American open-source models that are at the frontier of scientific reasoning. These models will be essential for the US to compete with China on science in the coming decades. Jensen is committing to spend tens of billions of dollars developing open-source models, and we are excited to be a partner with them in figuring out how to benchmark, train and use those agents to accelerate scientific research. We have already open-sourced some of the work we have done with them, and are looking forward to open-sourcing more. There are few things today that are more important. See our blog post below, and watch the video to learn more, narrated by the man himself.

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FROM THE LIVE SHOW: Matt Hicks (Matt Hicks), President & CEO of Red Hat, on open source and collaboration. "I love the model that open source provides because it provides this incredible collaboration." "This is why we're passionate about smaller models, because they allow that collaborative, open source ethos to thrive a little bit better than the frontier models."

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.Bill Gurley “I don’t think politicians understand how powerful open source is as a competitive weapon. If you have ten companies all doing open source, the minute an idea is shared, it's available to the other ten and they absorb it immediately. I think the odds that the U.S., with two proprietary models, can stay ahead of China, with ten open source ones, is very low.”

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Jason Calacanis: Anthropic, OpenAI and others are trying to kill OpenClaw Why? Because an open source agent platform is an existential threat to frontier model companies. @jason: “ People are going to say I'm a conspiracy theorist, but the number one goal, I believe, in the large language model, frontier model space, is to kill (OpenClaw). This is a giant movement to stop it, because this is the equivalent of having an open source Android-like player in the market, and that could be incredibly disruptive. Because, I believe, open source is going to win the day on the large language models and take 90% of the token usage, and I think the entire frontier model space could be undercut by open source. And I think they realize that SLMs, the smaller language models that are verticalized now, that will run on desktops and laptops and are even starting to run on the top ones, that is their biggest competitive threat, and I hope it happens.”

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NVIDIA just released a new open source transcription model, Nemotron Speech ASR, designed from the ground up for low-latency use cases like voice agents. Here's a voice agent built with this new model. 24ms transcription finalization and total voice-to-voice inference time under 500ms. This agent actually uses *three* NVIDIA open source models: - Nemotron Speech ASR - Nemotron 3 Nano 30GB in a 4-bit quant (released in December) - A preview checkpoint of the upcoming Magpie text-to-speech model These models are all truly open source: weights, training data, training code, and inference code. This is a big deal! Jensen said in the CES keynote yesterday that he expects open source models to catch up to proprietary models this year in a number of categories. NVIDIA is putting their weight behind making this happen. (As Alan Kay said, the best way to predict the future is to invent it.) The code for this agent is open source too, of course. You can deploy it to production with Modal and Pipecat AI cloud, or run locally on an NVIDIA DGX Spark or RTX 5090.
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NVIDIA just released a new open source transcription model, Nemotron Speech ASR, designed from the ground up for low-latency use cases like voice agents. Here's a voice agent built with this new model. 24ms transcription finalization and total voice-to-voice inference time under 500ms. This agent actually uses *three* NVIDIA open source models: - Nemotron Speech ASR - Nemotron 3 Nano 30GB in a 4-bit quant (released in December) - A preview checkpoint of the upcoming Magpie text-to-speech model These models are all truly open source: weights, training data, training code, and inference code. This is a big deal! Jensen said in the CES keynote yesterday that he expects open source models to catch up to proprietary models this year in a number of categories. NVIDIA is putting their weight behind making this happen. (As Alan Kay said, the best way to predict the future is to invent it.) The code for this agent is open source too, of course. You can deploy it to production with Modal and Pipecat AI cloud, or run locally on an NVIDIA DGX Spark or RTX 5090.

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