Video wird geladen...

Video konnte nicht geladen werden

Zur Startseite

SITUATION EXPLAINED: Why is China building a sovereign AI stack to compete with Nvidia? We asked Glinert 🇺🇸 🏭 and Mitchell Nahmias, co-founders of Sphere Semi. "What I see as the only real viable crack in Nvidia's armor is what's coming out of China, which is ironic given Jensen's...

26,278 Aufrufe • vor 11 Tagen •via X (Twitter)

0 Kommentare

Keine Kommentare verfügbar

Kommentare vom Original-Post werden hier angezeigt

Ähnliche Videos

Jensen Huang just made the most direct argument of his career about why banning Nvidia from China is not a national security strategy but rather a national security failure. Dwarkesh asks why Nvidia should be allowed to sell chips to China at all, if China would just use Huawei chips without them. Jensen's answer was that in the absence of a better choice, you take the only choice you have. As long as China has to settle for inferior chips, they are building their AI infrastructure on a foundation that is slower, harder to program, and years behind American technology. The moment the US decides to ban Nvidia from selling to China entirely, it removes that disadvantage. China is 40 percent of the global technology industry, Jensen said. Conceding that market, handing it entirely to Huawei is a disservice to American national security, American technology leadership, and American economic power. The data shows what has already happened since the export bans tightened. Nvidia's share of China's AI chip market collapsed from 95 percent to 55 percent in 2025 and at one point during the H20 ban, Jensen himself declared Nvidia had gone from 95 percent share to zero on advanced accelerators. The Trump administration's ban on H20 chips cost Nvidia an estimated 15 billion dollars in lost sales, plus a 4.5 billion dollar inventory write-down. Without the export controls, Nvidia was on track to generate roughly 23 billion dollars in H20 chip sales to China in 2025 alone. Meanwhile Huawei shipped 812,000 AI chips in 2025 and Beijing has now mandated that all state-funded data centers must switch to domestic chips. Jensen's deeper argument is about the global stack, not the quarterly revenue. When developers around the world build AI on CUDA, Nvidia's programming platform, they are building on American technology. When those AI models deploy into every country, the American stack goes with them. Cutting Nvidia out of China does not slow Chinese AI but rather accelerates the construction of a parallel Chinese tech stack that, once built at scale, competes with American technology everywhere else in the world.

Milk Road AI

21,133 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

Chamath: "Nvidia is not doing what's in the best interest of the United States." 🇺🇸🇨🇳 "I think we can all do the math. About 47% of all of NVIDIA's revenue goes to China and Chinese-related countries." "And I think when you peel back this onion, what you will find is a whole raft of companies that were stood up to buy these Nvidia GPUs to essentially act as a waystation for China." "And I think that is the big problem." "Let's have a thought starter: if 47% of all of the AI capability and horsepower is being shipped to three Asian countries, where do you think the apps that require that amount of horsepower live?" "Is there a Cursor of Bhutan that we did not know? Is there a great shopping app in Cambodia that's come out of nowhere, that's AI powered?" "I think the answer is no." "Every single time we have an advance in the United States, how is it that Alibaba shows up with something incredible? DeepSeek shows up with something better?" "At every turn and at every step of AI, they are at the same rate or one step ahead." "To be honest with you, I think the real problem that we have is that Nvidia is not doing what is in the best interest of the United States." "You have a American company that has been working around the guidelines at every turn to try to land silicon into the hands of China." "Late last year, they introduced this thing called the H20 that was explicitly designed for China and to be compliant with US rules at the time." "Which again, gives these guys substantial performance." "This is a case where (Nvidia) has plausible deniability. I sell something to a Singaporean registered company? Plausible deniability." "What am I supposed to do? You can't expect me to audit it. I think that's what NVIDIA's answer will be to this question." "But what is the real expectation? At a minimum, the United States should have a mechanism to understand it." "It is implausible that if you did one or two layers of work, you would not find that most of this traffic is being used by Chinese organizations."

The All-In Podcast

910,352 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

Nvidia is pulling off the most sophisticated financial loop in tech history. They invested $40 BILLION in its own customers in just 5 months. Here's why this could blow up the entire AI economy: Nvidia generated $97 billion in free cash flow last year. Instead of sitting on it, Jensen started writing checks to every company in the AI supply chain. Not small checks. We're talking about billions at a time. And almost every single one of those companies turns around and spends that money on Nvidia chips. Follow the money: $30 billion into OpenAI. OpenAI is one of Nvidia's largest GPU customers and spends billions annually on Nvidia hardware through cloud providers. $2 billion into CoreWeave, a company that exists exclusively to rent out data centers full of Nvidia GPUs. $2 billion into Marvell for silicon photonics that connects Nvidia systems. $2 billion into Lumentum for optical tech that powers Nvidia data centers. $2 billion into Coherent for the same thing. $2 billion into Nebius, an AI cloud company deploying Nvidia infrastructure. $3.2 billion into Corning, the glassmaker building three new US factories specifically to make fiber optic cables for Nvidia's next-gen systems. $2.1 billion into IREN, a data center operator that just agreed to deploy 5 gigawatts of Nvidia-designed infrastructure. And the list goes on. Every single recipient either buys Nvidia chips directly, builds infrastructure that runs on Nvidia chips, or manufactures components that go inside Nvidia systems. Matthew Bryson, an analyst at Wedbush Securities, said in a research note that Nvidia's dealmaking fits "squarely into the circular investment theme." Bloomberg even published an entire interactive feature this week titled "AI Circular Deals: How Microsoft, OpenAI and Nvidia Keep Paying Each Other." The piece maps how capital flows between the same handful of companies and gets counted as revenue multiple times along the way. But here's the part that makes this genuinely complicated: Nvidia's $5 billion investment in Intel from September is now worth over $25 billion. That's a 5x return in months. Their private company portfolio went from $3.4 billion to $22.3 billion on the balance sheet in a single year. They booked $8.9 billion in gains from equity investments alone. So when critics say "circular investing," Nvidia can point to Intel and say "we turned $5 billion into $25 billion, this is just smart capital deployment." And they're not wrong. Some of these bets ARE paying off like crazy. The real question is whether Nvidia is a chipmaker that happens to invest, or a venture fund that happens to sell chips. Because right now Jensen is doing both at a scale that has never existed in the semiconductor industry. No chipmaker in history has EVER invested $40 billion in its own ecosystem in five months. Last fiscal year Nvidia invested $17.5 billion in private companies. Their SEC filing literally says those investments include "AI model companies that purchase its products directly or through cloud service providers." They're saying it themselves: We invest in companies that buy our products. On Nvidia's last earnings call, Jensen told investors their investments are focused on "expanding and deepening our ecosystem reach." Translate that from CEO-speak and it means " we're funding the companies that fund us. The bull case says Nvidia is building an unbreakable moat by financing the entire AI supply chain and ensuring it all runs on Nvidia hardware. The bear case says this is the most elaborate circular revenue scheme since the subprime mortgage era and it all breaks apart the moment one domino falls. Both cases use the exact same evidence.

Ricardo

159,113 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten