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🚨 SOMETHING IS CRACKING UNDER THE S&P The S&P has bled for weeks, and everyone still calls it a "healthy pullback." They have no idea what's coming. Two things changed. First, inflation is back. CPI hit 3.5%, energy's ripping, and the Fed is boxed in. It held rates in...

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Qmo

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181,563 Aufrufe • vor 12 Tagen •via X (Twitter)

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🚨SOMETHING IS BREAKING UNDER THE S&P The S&P has been bleeding for weeks, and most people still call it a "healthy pullback." They have no idea what's coming. Here's what actually changed. Inflation is back. June CPI came in at 3.5%, energy's ripping again, and the Fed's stuck. It held at 3.50-3.75% in July but three members dissented, demanding a hike. Nine of eighteen officials now pencil in at least one hike this year, and markets price ~55% odds of a 2026 hike. September is live. And new Chair Kevin Warsh built his entire reputation on killing inflation he doesn't need the market's permission. Now the second problem. Five stocks are holding up the whole index Apple, Nvidia, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta. The S&P has 503 names but trades like it has 5. A 10% drop in just those five drags the entire index down ~2.6%. And the leaders are cracking. Meta fell 8% in a day after earnings free cash flow down 91%, AI capex ballooning to $130–145B this year. We've seen this movie: → 2018: Fed hiked into weakness → S&P fell ~20% in a quarter → 2022: Fed tightened into sticky inflation → −25% peak to trough If the Fed hikes in September, the AI trade reprices, the concentration breaks, dip-buyers get trapped, and the correction becomes a crash. My call: the S&P ends this cycle 20%+ lower from ~7,800 toward 6,200. This isn't caution. This is the setup. Reminder: I called the 2025 $BTC ATH and the drop to $60K. The next call matters more. Follow and turn notifications on. I post the next major move before it's obvious.
0:45

🚨SOMETHING IS BREAKING UNDER THE S&P The S&P has been bleeding for weeks, and most people still call it a "healthy pullback." They have no idea what's coming. Here's what actually changed. Inflation is back. June CPI came in at 3.5%, energy's ripping again, and the Fed's stuck. It held at 3.50-3.75% in July but three members dissented, demanding a hike. Nine of eighteen officials now pencil in at least one hike this year, and markets price ~55% odds of a 2026 hike. September is live. And new Chair Kevin Warsh built his entire reputation on killing inflation he doesn't need the market's permission. Now the second problem. Five stocks are holding up the whole index Apple, Nvidia, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta. The S&P has 503 names but trades like it has 5. A 10% drop in just those five drags the entire index down ~2.6%. And the leaders are cracking. Meta fell 8% in a day after earnings free cash flow down 91%, AI capex ballooning to $130–145B this year. We've seen this movie: → 2018: Fed hiked into weakness → S&P fell ~20% in a quarter → 2022: Fed tightened into sticky inflation → −25% peak to trough If the Fed hikes in September, the AI trade reprices, the concentration breaks, dip-buyers get trapped, and the correction becomes a crash. My call: the S&P ends this cycle 20%+ lower from ~7,800 toward 6,200. This isn't caution. This is the setup. Reminder: I called the 2025 $BTC ATH and the drop to $60K. The next call matters more. Follow and turn notifications on. I post the next major move before it's obvious.

Shelpid.WI3M

35,607 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🚨 WARNING: $SPX IS SETTING UP A 20% CRASH The S&P 500 has been dumping for weeks Most people still think this is just another healthy pullback They have NO idea what's coming Wave 6 has already marked the top. The final melt-up could be over Here's what changed Inflation is back. June CPI: 3.5%. Energy prices are ripping again The Fed held rates at 3.50-3.75% in July - but three FOMC members dissented, demanding a HIKE 9 of 18 Fed officials now pencil in at least one hike this year Markets price a roughly 55% chance of a 2026 hike. September is live New Chair Kevin Warsh built his reputation on one thing: killing inflation He doesn't need market's permission And there's more Only five stocks have been carrying the entire index: → Apple → Nvidia → Amazon → Microsoft → Meta The index holds 503 stocks but trades like it holds 54 A 10% drop in just the top 5 drags the whole index down ~2.6% Now the leaders are cracking Meta fell 8% in a day after earnings. Free cash flow: down 91%. AI capex: $130-145 BILLION this year We've seen this movie before 2018: Fed hiked into weakness → $SPX fell nearly 20% in one quarter 2022: Fed tightened into sticky inflation → -25% peak to trough If the Fed hikes in September: → The AI trade reprices → Index concentration breaks → Dip buyers get trapped → The correction turns into a crash My call: $SPX ends this cycle 20%+ lower - from ~7,800 toward 6,200 This isn't caution. This is the setup Reminder: I called the 2025 $BTC ATH and drop to $60k. The next call matters more Follow and turn notifications on. I'll post next major move BEFORE it becomes obvious
0:21

🚨 WARNING: $SPX IS SETTING UP A 20% CRASH The S&P 500 has been dumping for weeks Most people still think this is just another healthy pullback They have NO idea what's coming Wave 6 has already marked the top. The final melt-up could be over Here's what changed Inflation is back. June CPI: 3.5%. Energy prices are ripping again The Fed held rates at 3.50-3.75% in July - but three FOMC members dissented, demanding a HIKE 9 of 18 Fed officials now pencil in at least one hike this year Markets price a roughly 55% chance of a 2026 hike. September is live New Chair Kevin Warsh built his reputation on one thing: killing inflation He doesn't need market's permission And there's more Only five stocks have been carrying the entire index: → Apple → Nvidia → Amazon → Microsoft → Meta The index holds 503 stocks but trades like it holds 54 A 10% drop in just the top 5 drags the whole index down ~2.6% Now the leaders are cracking Meta fell 8% in a day after earnings. Free cash flow: down 91%. AI capex: $130-145 BILLION this year We've seen this movie before 2018: Fed hiked into weakness → $SPX fell nearly 20% in one quarter 2022: Fed tightened into sticky inflation → -25% peak to trough If the Fed hikes in September: → The AI trade reprices → Index concentration breaks → Dip buyers get trapped → The correction turns into a crash My call: $SPX ends this cycle 20%+ lower - from ~7,800 toward 6,200 This isn't caution. This is the setup Reminder: I called the 2025 $BTC ATH and drop to $60k. The next call matters more Follow and turn notifications on. I'll post next major move BEFORE it becomes obvious

Aralez 🐕

250,726 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🚨 S&P 500 IS SETTING UP FOR A 20% CRASH The index has been weakening for weeks, but most people still see it as a normal pullback. I think the bigger move is still ahead. Wave 6 may have already marked the top. Now the macro backdrop is getting worse: → June CPI hit 3.5% → Energy prices are rising again → The Fed held rates at 3.50%-3.75% → 3 FOMC members wanted a hike → Markets now price a real chance of another hike this year That's a problem for an index this concentrated. Five stocks are carrying the entire market: → Apple → Nvidia → Amazon → Microsoft → Meta $SPX has 503 companies, but a handful of mega-caps are doing most of the work. Now the leaders are starting to crack. Meta dropped 8% in one day after earnings, while AI spending keeps climbing. We've seen this setup before. 2018: Fed hikes → nearly 20% SPX drawdown 2022: Fed tightening → 25% peak-to-trough decline If the Fed hikes again, the AI trade could reprice fast. My target: ~$7,800 → ~$6,200 That's a 20%+ correction. I've called all of the S&P selloffs this year, I know what im talking about. The next market call matters more. Follow + turn notifications on. I'll post the next major move before it becomes obvious.
0:29

🚨 S&P 500 IS SETTING UP FOR A 20% CRASH The index has been weakening for weeks, but most people still see it as a normal pullback. I think the bigger move is still ahead. Wave 6 may have already marked the top. Now the macro backdrop is getting worse: → June CPI hit 3.5% → Energy prices are rising again → The Fed held rates at 3.50%-3.75% → 3 FOMC members wanted a hike → Markets now price a real chance of another hike this year That's a problem for an index this concentrated. Five stocks are carrying the entire market: → Apple → Nvidia → Amazon → Microsoft → Meta $SPX has 503 companies, but a handful of mega-caps are doing most of the work. Now the leaders are starting to crack. Meta dropped 8% in one day after earnings, while AI spending keeps climbing. We've seen this setup before. 2018: Fed hikes → nearly 20% SPX drawdown 2022: Fed tightening → 25% peak-to-trough decline If the Fed hikes again, the AI trade could reprice fast. My target: ~$7,800 → ~$6,200 That's a 20%+ correction. I've called all of the S&P selloffs this year, I know what im talking about. The next market call matters more. Follow + turn notifications on. I'll post the next major move before it becomes obvious.

Ulun

127,760 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🚨 FED CHAIR KEVIN WARSH JUST MADE IT CLEAR: THE FIGHT AGAINST INFLATION IS NOT OVER. Key points from the FOMC press conference: • The Fed held rates in a 9–3 vote after a heated internal debate. • Warsh said inflation is still too high and the 2% target is non-negotiable. • The Fed is pulling back from forward guidance and will let markets react directly to incoming data. • Treasury yields have already tightened financial conditions, even without another rate hike. • One soft CPI report will not change policy. The Fed is focused on the broader trend. • The economy and labor market remain solid, while AI investment is driving a major surge in business spending. • A hold does not mean the Fed has paused. Warsh called it “watchful thinking.” • If inflation rises while employment stays strong, the Fed will be more inclined to tighten again. The message was simple: The Fed is not declaring victory, and rate hikes are still on the table.
1:58

🚨 FED CHAIR KEVIN WARSH JUST MADE IT CLEAR: THE FIGHT AGAINST INFLATION IS NOT OVER. Key points from the FOMC press conference: • The Fed held rates in a 9–3 vote after a heated internal debate. • Warsh said inflation is still too high and the 2% target is non-negotiable. • The Fed is pulling back from forward guidance and will let markets react directly to incoming data. • Treasury yields have already tightened financial conditions, even without another rate hike. • One soft CPI report will not change policy. The Fed is focused on the broader trend. • The economy and labor market remain solid, while AI investment is driving a major surge in business spending. • A hold does not mean the Fed has paused. Warsh called it “watchful thinking.” • If inflation rises while employment stays strong, the Fed will be more inclined to tighten again. The message was simple: The Fed is not declaring victory, and rate hikes are still on the table.

Crypto Rover

117,868 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🚨 SOMETHING VERY STRANGE IS HAPPENING Most traders still see this as just another routine pullback. But inflation is starting to pick up again. The Fed is becoming more hawkish. And another rate hike is back on the table. Meanwhile, $SPX is being propped up by only a handful of mega-cap names. Now those leaders are beginning to break down. We’ve seen this setup before. 2018 → almost -20% 2022 → roughly -25% If the Fed hikes again, the selloff could become much more aggressive. My target: $SPX ~7,800 → ~6,000 That’s around a 25% drop. I still wouldn’t be buying this dip yet. Watch the next move closely. I’ll post the warning before it becomes obvious.
0:24

🚨 SOMETHING VERY STRANGE IS HAPPENING Most traders still see this as just another routine pullback. But inflation is starting to pick up again. The Fed is becoming more hawkish. And another rate hike is back on the table. Meanwhile, $SPX is being propped up by only a handful of mega-cap names. Now those leaders are beginning to break down. We’ve seen this setup before. 2018 → almost -20% 2022 → roughly -25% If the Fed hikes again, the selloff could become much more aggressive. My target: $SPX ~7,800 → ~6,000 That’s around a 25% drop. I still wouldn’t be buying this dip yet. Watch the next move closely. I’ll post the warning before it becomes obvious.

winkle.

55,463 Aufrufe • vor 8 Tagen

🚨 MAJOR S&P 500 CRASH INCOMING 35% of the entire S&P 500 is concentrated in 7 stocks and the first one just cracked Meta dropped ~10% in market cap over the past weeks Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Alphabet, Tesla, Broadcom are holding up the entire index This isn't a diversified market - it's a handful of companies with a stock market attached Phase 6 of the cycle: euphoria top. Every major index peak in history has looked exactly like this right before Phase 7 When concentration this extreme starts unwinding it doesn't dip - it cascades Each mega-cap that rolls over forces index funds to rebalance, triggers margin calls, amplifies the move Follow and turn notifs on - if this spreads, it becomes a global risk event fast
0:26

🚨 MAJOR S&P 500 CRASH INCOMING 35% of the entire S&P 500 is concentrated in 7 stocks and the first one just cracked Meta dropped ~10% in market cap over the past weeks Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Alphabet, Tesla, Broadcom are holding up the entire index This isn't a diversified market - it's a handful of companies with a stock market attached Phase 6 of the cycle: euphoria top. Every major index peak in history has looked exactly like this right before Phase 7 When concentration this extreme starts unwinding it doesn't dip - it cascades Each mega-cap that rolls over forces index funds to rebalance, triggers margin calls, amplifies the move Follow and turn notifs on - if this spreads, it becomes a global risk event fast

Linton Worm (🍏,🪱)

42,461 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

🇺🇸 THE FED IS EXPECTED TO HIKE RATES And this is bad for markets. Just a few months ago, everyone was convinced rate cuts were coming. That “flippening” in expectations has completely shifted the liquidity narrative. The next FOMC meeting on June 17th is also the first under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. Markets don’t yet have full clarity on how he will prioritize growth vs inflation. The reason for a possible hike is simple: the U.S. economy remains stronger than expected. Job growth is holding up, consumer demand is resilient, and inflation is still running above the Fed’s target. For the Fed, persistent inflation means less urgency to cut rates, and more reason to keep financial conditions tight. Higher rates make borrowing more expensive, slow spending, increase costs for businesses, and pressure stock valuations. Markets thrive on liquidity. A Fed focused on fighting inflation becomes a clear headwind for risk assets. Follow and turn on notifications to stay up to date.
0:29

🇺🇸 THE FED IS EXPECTED TO HIKE RATES And this is bad for markets. Just a few months ago, everyone was convinced rate cuts were coming. That “flippening” in expectations has completely shifted the liquidity narrative. The next FOMC meeting on June 17th is also the first under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. Markets don’t yet have full clarity on how he will prioritize growth vs inflation. The reason for a possible hike is simple: the U.S. economy remains stronger than expected. Job growth is holding up, consumer demand is resilient, and inflation is still running above the Fed’s target. For the Fed, persistent inflation means less urgency to cut rates, and more reason to keep financial conditions tight. Higher rates make borrowing more expensive, slow spending, increase costs for businesses, and pressure stock valuations. Markets thrive on liquidity. A Fed focused on fighting inflation becomes a clear headwind for risk assets. Follow and turn on notifications to stay up to date.

CryptoGoos

42,378 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

🚨 THE S&P 500 IS WALKING STRAIGHT INTO A MASSIVE TRAP September 16. 2:00 PM ET. $SPX is sitting at 7,748 after its 25th ATH of the year while Wall Street celebrates like nothing can break this rally. Meanwhile, the one thing this entire market was built to avoid is coming back: RATE HIKES. The Fed hasn’t hiked since July 2023. But inflation is still nowhere near 2%, and a hike by year-end is now the single most likely outcome priced by markets. That changes everything. This entire run from 4,835 → 7,748 was fueled by one belief: Rates go DOWN. Liquidity gets easier. Stocks keep going UP. One hike blows a hole through that story. And we’ve already seen what happens when the Fed tightens into an overheated market: ➮ 2018: record highs → Fed hikes → $SPX -19.8% ➮ 2022: aggressive hiking cycle → $SPX 4,818 → 3,491 ➮ 2000: final Fed hike → Nasdaq eventually -78% Every time, investors had the same excuse: “This time is different.” Now look at where we are. 25 all-time highs. Extreme confidence. Almost nobody positioned for the possibility that rates move HIGHER instead of lower. My roadmap: $7,748 → $6,300 → $4,835 $6,300 would erase roughly 19%. $4,835 would wipe out the entire move from the April 2025 base. Everyone is watching the ATH. I’m watching what happens when the market realizes the rate-cut story it spent the entire rally pricing in may be dead. I called the 2025 $BTC top and the move toward $60K. This next call could be much bigger. Save this chart. Turn notifications on. If the trap snaps shut, I’ll post it here before most people understand what just happened.
0:36

🚨 THE S&P 500 IS WALKING STRAIGHT INTO A MASSIVE TRAP September 16. 2:00 PM ET. $SPX is sitting at 7,748 after its 25th ATH of the year while Wall Street celebrates like nothing can break this rally. Meanwhile, the one thing this entire market was built to avoid is coming back: RATE HIKES. The Fed hasn’t hiked since July 2023. But inflation is still nowhere near 2%, and a hike by year-end is now the single most likely outcome priced by markets. That changes everything. This entire run from 4,835 → 7,748 was fueled by one belief: Rates go DOWN. Liquidity gets easier. Stocks keep going UP. One hike blows a hole through that story. And we’ve already seen what happens when the Fed tightens into an overheated market: ➮ 2018: record highs → Fed hikes → $SPX -19.8% ➮ 2022: aggressive hiking cycle → $SPX 4,818 → 3,491 ➮ 2000: final Fed hike → Nasdaq eventually -78% Every time, investors had the same excuse: “This time is different.” Now look at where we are. 25 all-time highs. Extreme confidence. Almost nobody positioned for the possibility that rates move HIGHER instead of lower. My roadmap: $7,748 → $6,300 → $4,835 $6,300 would erase roughly 19%. $4,835 would wipe out the entire move from the April 2025 base. Everyone is watching the ATH. I’m watching what happens when the market realizes the rate-cut story it spent the entire rally pricing in may be dead. I called the 2025 $BTC top and the move toward $60K. This next call could be much bigger. Save this chart. Turn notifications on. If the trap snaps shut, I’ll post it here before most people understand what just happened.

Phantom_Defi

17,297 Aufrufe • vor 28 Tagen

🚨 S&P500 IS ABOUT TO COLLAPSE S&P500 just hit a new all-time high at 7,400. Most people have no idea what happens next. Look at this chart. Wave 5 is complete. The final rally is done. But the structure isn't the only problem. The real story is concentration. Five stocks are holding up the entire index. Apple. Nvidia. Amazon. Microsoft. Meta. Remove them, and the S&P is already down. This is not a healthy market. This is a house of cards. When the AI ​​bubble bursts nothing will catch the fall. Remember, I've called every major turn for the last 10 years. When the next move becomes clear, I’ll post it here first. Turn notifications on. Most people will follow me too late.
0:30

🚨 S&P500 IS ABOUT TO COLLAPSE S&P500 just hit a new all-time high at 7,400. Most people have no idea what happens next. Look at this chart. Wave 5 is complete. The final rally is done. But the structure isn't the only problem. The real story is concentration. Five stocks are holding up the entire index. Apple. Nvidia. Amazon. Microsoft. Meta. Remove them, and the S&P is already down. This is not a healthy market. This is a house of cards. When the AI ​​bubble bursts nothing will catch the fall. Remember, I've called every major turn for the last 10 years. When the next move becomes clear, I’ll post it here first. Turn notifications on. Most people will follow me too late.

MARMOT

87,089 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

🚨 WARNING: $SPX IS ONE MOVE AWAY FROM A CRASH The S&P 500 is hitting all-time highs day by day. Most people still think this is just another healthy pump. They have NO idea what will happen next. Wave 6 just marked the local top. The final melt-up could be over. But the biggest warning is market concentration. Only five stocks have been carrying the entire index: → Apple → Nvidia → Amazon → Microsoft → Meta Now that weakness is spreading across mega caps, the entire structure is becoming extremely fragile. Meta has already dumped more than 15% in one month. If the remaining leaders follow: → Index concentration breaks → Dip buyers get trapped → Selling pressure accelerates → The correction turns into a major crash When the AI bubble finally bursts, there may be nothing left holding $SPX at these levels. Follow and turn notifications on. I’ll post the next major move BEFORE it becomes obvious.
0:20

🚨 WARNING: $SPX IS ONE MOVE AWAY FROM A CRASH The S&P 500 is hitting all-time highs day by day. Most people still think this is just another healthy pump. They have NO idea what will happen next. Wave 6 just marked the local top. The final melt-up could be over. But the biggest warning is market concentration. Only five stocks have been carrying the entire index: → Apple → Nvidia → Amazon → Microsoft → Meta Now that weakness is spreading across mega caps, the entire structure is becoming extremely fragile. Meta has already dumped more than 15% in one month. If the remaining leaders follow: → Index concentration breaks → Dip buyers get trapped → Selling pressure accelerates → The correction turns into a major crash When the AI bubble finally bursts, there may be nothing left holding $SPX at these levels. Follow and turn notifications on. I’ll post the next major move BEFORE it becomes obvious.

Wimar.X

63,499 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🚨 S&P 500 IS ON THE VERGE OF A CRASH 🚨 The pattern is at Wave 5 - peak of fakeout Next stop: Wave 6 ($6,100) - bottom But the structure isn't the only problem The entire S&P right now is held up by 5-6 stocks Apple. Nvidia. Amazon. Microsoft. Meta Remove them - and the index is already in a downtrend That's not a healthy market. That's a house of cards with a nice facade When those names start to crack - and they always do eventually - there's nothing underneath to catch the fall GET READY!
0:38

🚨 S&P 500 IS ON THE VERGE OF A CRASH 🚨 The pattern is at Wave 5 - peak of fakeout Next stop: Wave 6 ($6,100) - bottom But the structure isn't the only problem The entire S&P right now is held up by 5-6 stocks Apple. Nvidia. Amazon. Microsoft. Meta Remove them - and the index is already in a downtrend That's not a healthy market. That's a house of cards with a nice facade When those names start to crack - and they always do eventually - there's nothing underneath to catch the fall GET READY!

NoName

90,506 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

A historic rotation is underway. On July 15th, Adam Kobeissi joined Fox Business and called for a rotation back into the Magnificent 7 to lead the S&P 500 to 8,000. The recent market leadership of chip stocks allowed the Magnificent 7 to correct, while still seeing historic earnings growth, without dragging the broader S&P 500 index lower. This was the largest such divergence between the S&P 500 and the Magnificent 7 since 2022. Less than 3 weeks since this clip with Adam Kobeissi and Charles V Payne, the S&P 500 is now above 7,700, Microsoft and Amazon are up +25% in 5 days, and the S&P 500 is worth a record $70 trillion. Many of these large cap technology names are now trading CHEAPER than the S&P 500 on a Forward P/E basis. Ironically, many stocks in this market are getting cheaper as they go up. Own assets or be left behind.
0:55

A historic rotation is underway. On July 15th, Adam Kobeissi joined Fox Business and called for a rotation back into the Magnificent 7 to lead the S&P 500 to 8,000. The recent market leadership of chip stocks allowed the Magnificent 7 to correct, while still seeing historic earnings growth, without dragging the broader S&P 500 index lower. This was the largest such divergence between the S&P 500 and the Magnificent 7 since 2022. Less than 3 weeks since this clip with Adam Kobeissi and Charles V Payne, the S&P 500 is now above 7,700, Microsoft and Amazon are up +25% in 5 days, and the S&P 500 is worth a record $70 trillion. Many of these large cap technology names are now trading CHEAPER than the S&P 500 on a Forward P/E basis. Ironically, many stocks in this market are getting cheaper as they go up. Own assets or be left behind.

The Kobeissi Letter

683,676 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🚨 THIS IS VERY, VERY BAD The S&P 500 is sitting near all-time highs. But nobody is paying attention to what’s actually happening. Markets are pricing in a 60% chance of a Fed rate hike this month. Last time this happened: S&P 500: $4,800 → $3,500 -25% wiped out. But this time there’s another problem: The AI bubble. The same AI stocks holding the S&P 500 up are exactly what higher rates hit the hardest. Higher rates mean: → Stronger dollar → Higher bond yields → Lower stock valuations → Less liquidity for risk assets And Bitcoin is exposed to the same liquidity shock. Stronger dollar + less liquidity + lower risk appetite = pressure on BTC. That lines up perfectly with the final Bitcoin market-cycle low I’m expecting this autumn. Stocks dump. Bitcoin follows. And this time, the S&P 500 drop could be much bigger than 25%. Reminder: I’ve called every major market top and bottom for the last 15 years, including the tops in Gold and Silver, the collapse in Oil, the SpaceX drop, and Bitcoin’s crash. When I exit markets completely, I’ll post it here publicly like I always do. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.
0:29

🚨 THIS IS VERY, VERY BAD The S&P 500 is sitting near all-time highs. But nobody is paying attention to what’s actually happening. Markets are pricing in a 60% chance of a Fed rate hike this month. Last time this happened: S&P 500: $4,800 → $3,500 -25% wiped out. But this time there’s another problem: The AI bubble. The same AI stocks holding the S&P 500 up are exactly what higher rates hit the hardest. Higher rates mean: → Stronger dollar → Higher bond yields → Lower stock valuations → Less liquidity for risk assets And Bitcoin is exposed to the same liquidity shock. Stronger dollar + less liquidity + lower risk appetite = pressure on BTC. That lines up perfectly with the final Bitcoin market-cycle low I’m expecting this autumn. Stocks dump. Bitcoin follows. And this time, the S&P 500 drop could be much bigger than 25%. Reminder: I’ve called every major market top and bottom for the last 15 years, including the tops in Gold and Silver, the collapse in Oil, the SpaceX drop, and Bitcoin’s crash. When I exit markets completely, I’ll post it here publicly like I always do. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.

Alex Mason 👁△

112,933 Aufrufe • vor 8 Tagen

🚨 solana:J3NKxxXZcnNiMjKw9hYb2K4LUxgwB6t1FtPtQVsv3KFr IS WALKING INTO THE MOST DANGEROUS FED TRAP SINCE 2018 September 16. 2:00 PM ET. Remember that date. The Fed hasn’t raised rates since July 2023. Now the market is starting to price ONE hike by year-end as the most likely outcome. Meanwhile, solana:J3NKxxXZcnNiMjKw9hYb2K4LUxgwB6t1FtPtQVsv3KFr is sitting at 7,748 - its 25th all-time high this year. That’s exactly what makes this setup so dangerous. This entire rally has been built on one belief: RATES ONLY GO DOWN. If that belief dies, the trade holding this market together dies with it. Inflation hit 4.2% in May. It’s still 3.4%. The Fed wants 2%. And 9 of 18 Fed officials have already penciled in at least one hike this year. We’ve seen this movie before. 2018: Fed hikes near record highs → solana:J3NKxxXZcnNiMjKw9hYb2K4LUxgwB6t1FtPtQVsv3KFr dumps 19.8% in 3 months. 2022: aggressive hiking cycle → solana:J3NKxxXZcnNiMjKw9hYb2K4LUxgwB6t1FtPtQVsv3KFr goes $4,818 → $3,491. 2000: final hike to 6.5% → Nasdaq eventually collapses 78%. Different cycle. Same mistake. Everyone feels safest near the top because the headlines still look bullish. Then the narrative changes. My roadmap: $7,748 → $6,300 → $4,835 $6,300 is roughly a 19% correction - almost identical to 2018. $4,835 would erase the entire move back to the base this rally launched from. Roughly -38%. And here’s the question nobody wants to answer: If a rate hike is becoming the most likely outcome… why is everyone still positioned like cuts are guaranteed? That’s the trap. Everyone is staring at the 25th ATH. I’m watching what could end the entire rally. I called the 2025 bitcoin:native top and the move toward $60K. The next call could matter even more. Turn notifications on. I’ll post the warning before the crowd realizes what changed.
0:38

🚨 solana:J3NKxxXZcnNiMjKw9hYb2K4LUxgwB6t1FtPtQVsv3KFr IS WALKING INTO THE MOST DANGEROUS FED TRAP SINCE 2018 September 16. 2:00 PM ET. Remember that date. The Fed hasn’t raised rates since July 2023. Now the market is starting to price ONE hike by year-end as the most likely outcome. Meanwhile, solana:J3NKxxXZcnNiMjKw9hYb2K4LUxgwB6t1FtPtQVsv3KFr is sitting at 7,748 - its 25th all-time high this year. That’s exactly what makes this setup so dangerous. This entire rally has been built on one belief: RATES ONLY GO DOWN. If that belief dies, the trade holding this market together dies with it. Inflation hit 4.2% in May. It’s still 3.4%. The Fed wants 2%. And 9 of 18 Fed officials have already penciled in at least one hike this year. We’ve seen this movie before. 2018: Fed hikes near record highs → solana:J3NKxxXZcnNiMjKw9hYb2K4LUxgwB6t1FtPtQVsv3KFr dumps 19.8% in 3 months. 2022: aggressive hiking cycle → solana:J3NKxxXZcnNiMjKw9hYb2K4LUxgwB6t1FtPtQVsv3KFr goes $4,818 → $3,491. 2000: final hike to 6.5% → Nasdaq eventually collapses 78%. Different cycle. Same mistake. Everyone feels safest near the top because the headlines still look bullish. Then the narrative changes. My roadmap: $7,748 → $6,300 → $4,835 $6,300 is roughly a 19% correction - almost identical to 2018. $4,835 would erase the entire move back to the base this rally launched from. Roughly -38%. And here’s the question nobody wants to answer: If a rate hike is becoming the most likely outcome… why is everyone still positioned like cuts are guaranteed? That’s the trap. Everyone is staring at the 25th ATH. I’m watching what could end the entire rally. I called the 2025 bitcoin:native top and the move toward $60K. The next call could matter even more. Turn notifications on. I’ll post the warning before the crowd realizes what changed.

WhaleTwits

13,143 Aufrufe • vor 9 Tagen

🚨 THIS IS HOW THE AI BUBBLE WILL BREAK THE S&P 500 Read this carefully before buying stocks like $SPCX. S&P 500 keeps hitting new all-time highs. The crowd thinks they are buying a resilient index. In reality, they are holding a ticking time bomb. And Big Tech is the one lighting the fuse. Apple, Microsoft, Google, Meta are no longer cash machines. Now they are just massive factories drowning in debt. By end of 2026, every cent of profit burns on chips and data centers. Even worse: their own billions aren't enough anymore. Big Tech borrowing exploded 357% in a single year. They are literally begging the market for cash. Why? This is pure FOMO. They're buried in debt for infrastructure that may never turn a profit. If AI doesn't fix productivity, this will be the most expensive bubble in history. And when this bubble bursts, it won't just hit tech. It will drag the entire S&P 500 into the abyss. Reminder: I’ve called all the market tops and bottoms for the last 15 years, including the Bitcoin bottom at $16,000 and the top at $126,000. The next call will be even more important. When I exit the markets completely, I’ll post it here publicly like I always do. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.
0:22

🚨 THIS IS HOW THE AI BUBBLE WILL BREAK THE S&P 500 Read this carefully before buying stocks like $SPCX. S&P 500 keeps hitting new all-time highs. The crowd thinks they are buying a resilient index. In reality, they are holding a ticking time bomb. And Big Tech is the one lighting the fuse. Apple, Microsoft, Google, Meta are no longer cash machines. Now they are just massive factories drowning in debt. By end of 2026, every cent of profit burns on chips and data centers. Even worse: their own billions aren't enough anymore. Big Tech borrowing exploded 357% in a single year. They are literally begging the market for cash. Why? This is pure FOMO. They're buried in debt for infrastructure that may never turn a profit. If AI doesn't fix productivity, this will be the most expensive bubble in history. And when this bubble bursts, it won't just hit tech. It will drag the entire S&P 500 into the abyss. Reminder: I’ve called all the market tops and bottoms for the last 15 years, including the Bitcoin bottom at $16,000 and the top at $126,000. The next call will be even more important. When I exit the markets completely, I’ll post it here publicly like I always do. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.

DANNY

42,675 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

🚨 S&P 500 CRASHES EVERY TIME THIS LINE IS CROSSED 🚨 Look at the bottom indicator on this chart It tracks US inflation. And it has one consistent pattern Every time it crossed 4% - the S&P 500 crashed It happened in 2001, 2008 and 2022. Drops ranged from -27% to -57% Right now inflation sits at 3.8% and is accelerating Before the Iran war started in February it was at 2.4% Three months later it's already at 3.8%. Top economists are forecasting 6% by end of quarter The Fed can't cut rates with inflation rising. Which means borrowing stays expensive. Which means earnings fall. Which means the market follows The line is not a prediction. It's a track record. Get ready! NOTIFS ON!
0:42

🚨 S&P 500 CRASHES EVERY TIME THIS LINE IS CROSSED 🚨 Look at the bottom indicator on this chart It tracks US inflation. And it has one consistent pattern Every time it crossed 4% - the S&P 500 crashed It happened in 2001, 2008 and 2022. Drops ranged from -27% to -57% Right now inflation sits at 3.8% and is accelerating Before the Iran war started in February it was at 2.4% Three months later it's already at 3.8%. Top economists are forecasting 6% by end of quarter The Fed can't cut rates with inflation rising. Which means borrowing stays expensive. Which means earnings fall. Which means the market follows The line is not a prediction. It's a track record. Get ready! NOTIFS ON!

NoName

47,377 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

THE S&P 500 IS ONE CRACK AWAY FROM COLLAPSE Every major bubble follows the same sequence Accumulation → Momentum → Breakout → Greed → Euphoria → Top → Collapse Five phases are already complete Phase 6 is the most dangerous not because it feels dangerous, but because it doesn't Now look at what's actually holding the index together: Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Meta, Alphabet, Tesla, Broadcom Eight companies carrying 35% of the entire S&P 500 This isn't a broad market it's eight stocks wearing a market's clothing And the first crack just appeared Meta quietly dropped nearly 7% of its market cap in ten days no headlines, no panic That's exactly how it always starts one leader breaks while everyone else is still celebrating The diversification people think they have doesn't exist it's concentration dressed up as safety Phase 7 is next and it's not a dip I called the $16K bottom and the $126K top every major turn for 15 years, public, timestamped, before the move Turn on notifications phase 7 doesn't announce itself
0:30

THE S&P 500 IS ONE CRACK AWAY FROM COLLAPSE Every major bubble follows the same sequence Accumulation → Momentum → Breakout → Greed → Euphoria → Top → Collapse Five phases are already complete Phase 6 is the most dangerous not because it feels dangerous, but because it doesn't Now look at what's actually holding the index together: Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Amazon, Meta, Alphabet, Tesla, Broadcom Eight companies carrying 35% of the entire S&P 500 This isn't a broad market it's eight stocks wearing a market's clothing And the first crack just appeared Meta quietly dropped nearly 7% of its market cap in ten days no headlines, no panic That's exactly how it always starts one leader breaks while everyone else is still celebrating The diversification people think they have doesn't exist it's concentration dressed up as safety Phase 7 is next and it's not a dip I called the $16K bottom and the $126K top every major turn for 15 years, public, timestamped, before the move Turn on notifications phase 7 doesn't announce itself

Finish 🏁

13,558 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

🚨 THIS IS HOW AI BUBBLE ENDS S&P 500 keeps hitting new all-time highs. The crowd thinks they are buying a resilient index. In reality, they are holding a ticking time bomb. And Big Tech is the one lighting the fuse. Apple, Microsoft, Google, Meta are no longer cash machines. Now they are just massive factories drowning in debt. By end of 2026, every cent of profit burns on chips and data centers. Even worse: their own billions aren't enough anymore. Big Tech borrowing exploded 357% in a single year. They are literally begging the market for cash. Why? This is pure FOMO. They're buried in debt for infrastructure that may never turn a profit. If AI doesn't fix productivity, this will be the most expensive bubble in history. And when this bubble bursts, it won't just hit tech. It will drag the entire S&P 500 into the abyss. Remember, I've called every major turn for the last 10 years, including the recent BTC $82K bull trap and the $111K top in October. My next call will be the biggest one this cycle. Turn on notifications. Most people will follow me too late.
0:36

🚨 THIS IS HOW AI BUBBLE ENDS S&P 500 keeps hitting new all-time highs. The crowd thinks they are buying a resilient index. In reality, they are holding a ticking time bomb. And Big Tech is the one lighting the fuse. Apple, Microsoft, Google, Meta are no longer cash machines. Now they are just massive factories drowning in debt. By end of 2026, every cent of profit burns on chips and data centers. Even worse: their own billions aren't enough anymore. Big Tech borrowing exploded 357% in a single year. They are literally begging the market for cash. Why? This is pure FOMO. They're buried in debt for infrastructure that may never turn a profit. If AI doesn't fix productivity, this will be the most expensive bubble in history. And when this bubble bursts, it won't just hit tech. It will drag the entire S&P 500 into the abyss. Remember, I've called every major turn for the last 10 years, including the recent BTC $82K bull trap and the $111K top in October. My next call will be the biggest one this cycle. Turn on notifications. Most people will follow me too late.

MARMOT

300,675 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

THE FED IS OUT OF EXITS The 10-Year Treasury yield just broke above 4.40% First time since June 2025. Remember the last time we crossed that line? April 2025. Trump's "90-day tariff pause." The emergency button got slammed for a reason. That same line is back. Right on schedule. And here's what nobody on cable news is telling you: Rate HIKES are now what the Fed is expected to do next. Not cuts. Hikes. In plain English: the Fed is about to make borrowing more expensive, not cheaper. What that means for you: ➮ 30-year mortgage rates are heading back to 7% ➮ Inflation just hit a 3-year high ➮ "Higher for longer" - the policy everyone thought was dead is officially back Seemingly overnight. Now here's the math nobody on TV wants to do out loud: The US government has to refinance trillions in debt this year at these higher rates. Every tick higher in rates costs the Treasury billions more in interest. Which puts the Fed in a corner with two exits. If they HIKE to crush inflation - the stock market, housing, and credit markets crack at the same time. If they HOLD or CUT to save the markets - inflation spirals again and the dollar bleeds out. There is no third door. This isn't a policy decision anymore. It's a math problem with no solution. The clock is ticking. Most people will keep believing "the Fed has it under control" until their mortgage payment, their grocery bill, and their portfolio tell them otherwise. Don't worry though - my system flags the exact moment the market shifts from caution to DANGER. I called every major top and bottom of the last decade. You'll be warned before it hits, like always. So make sure to TURN ON NOTIFS and follow
0:37

THE FED IS OUT OF EXITS The 10-Year Treasury yield just broke above 4.40% First time since June 2025. Remember the last time we crossed that line? April 2025. Trump's "90-day tariff pause." The emergency button got slammed for a reason. That same line is back. Right on schedule. And here's what nobody on cable news is telling you: Rate HIKES are now what the Fed is expected to do next. Not cuts. Hikes. In plain English: the Fed is about to make borrowing more expensive, not cheaper. What that means for you: ➮ 30-year mortgage rates are heading back to 7% ➮ Inflation just hit a 3-year high ➮ "Higher for longer" - the policy everyone thought was dead is officially back Seemingly overnight. Now here's the math nobody on TV wants to do out loud: The US government has to refinance trillions in debt this year at these higher rates. Every tick higher in rates costs the Treasury billions more in interest. Which puts the Fed in a corner with two exits. If they HIKE to crush inflation - the stock market, housing, and credit markets crack at the same time. If they HOLD or CUT to save the markets - inflation spirals again and the dollar bleeds out. There is no third door. This isn't a policy decision anymore. It's a math problem with no solution. The clock is ticking. Most people will keep believing "the Fed has it under control" until their mortgage payment, their grocery bill, and their portfolio tell them otherwise. Don't worry though - my system flags the exact moment the market shifts from caution to DANGER. I called every major top and bottom of the last decade. You'll be warned before it hits, like always. So make sure to TURN ON NOTIFS and follow

Reflection🪩

132,195 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

On July 29, the Fed could cut every retail portfolio in America. Rate hike odds just tripled in 7 days. Trillions in housing, small caps, and tech are one Warsh sentence away from collapse. Here's what Wall Street already knows and retail doesn't: Seven days ago, the market was pricing in a rate cut this summer. Retail investors piled into every trade that benefits from lower rates. Housing stocks, small caps, unprofitable tech, and long-term bonds all ran on one assumption. That assumption was simple: rates were coming down. Then everything changed this week: > Oil surged near $100 after Houthi attacks on Saudi tankers this week. > WTI closed Friday above $90. Brent stayed above $95 through the weekend. > Gas prices are already climbing back toward $4 a gallon. > New global tariffs kicked in the same week. Inflation expectations jumped overnight. > The 10-year Treasury yield ripped to 4.71%. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is publicly split with his own board. By Friday, the rate hike odds for the July 29 meeting had tripled. In just one week, the entire outlook flipped. A Wells Fargo strategist said rising oil weakens consumers and complicates the inflation fight. His conclusion: the Fed may need to hike more and faster than anyone expected. This is the trap retail investors keep walking into. The consensus trade always feels safe until the day it isn't. Buy the dip, ride the cut, and wait for the pivot - that works until oil spikes, inflation runs hot, and the Fed changes direction. Here's the worst part. Consumer spending is already fragile. Real wages have been negative for months. The average household is paying thousands more on essentials than two years ago. Now add a rate hike into that picture: > Small caps get repriced overnight. > Housing stocks lose their entire 2026 rally in a week. > Every unprofitable tech name that ran on cheap money gets crushed. Retail investors holding those positions find out only after the announcement. Wednesday is the Fed decision. Thursday brings Q2 GDP and PCE inflation data. Those are two of the year's most important reports, arriving back to back. This is exactly the setup where emotional investors get flattened. They panic sell on the headline, then chase the bounce out of FOMO. That cycle repeats on every intraday swing until the account is bleeding. The investors who come out ahead don't watch the Fed feed refresh. They already have a strategy running before the announcement hits. It runs on automated, rules-based logic, with no emotion and no guesswork. That's exactly what Surmount was built for:
4:39

On July 29, the Fed could cut every retail portfolio in America. Rate hike odds just tripled in 7 days. Trillions in housing, small caps, and tech are one Warsh sentence away from collapse. Here's what Wall Street already knows and retail doesn't: Seven days ago, the market was pricing in a rate cut this summer. Retail investors piled into every trade that benefits from lower rates. Housing stocks, small caps, unprofitable tech, and long-term bonds all ran on one assumption. That assumption was simple: rates were coming down. Then everything changed this week: > Oil surged near $100 after Houthi attacks on Saudi tankers this week. > WTI closed Friday above $90. Brent stayed above $95 through the weekend. > Gas prices are already climbing back toward $4 a gallon. > New global tariffs kicked in the same week. Inflation expectations jumped overnight. > The 10-year Treasury yield ripped to 4.71%. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is publicly split with his own board. By Friday, the rate hike odds for the July 29 meeting had tripled. In just one week, the entire outlook flipped. A Wells Fargo strategist said rising oil weakens consumers and complicates the inflation fight. His conclusion: the Fed may need to hike more and faster than anyone expected. This is the trap retail investors keep walking into. The consensus trade always feels safe until the day it isn't. Buy the dip, ride the cut, and wait for the pivot - that works until oil spikes, inflation runs hot, and the Fed changes direction. Here's the worst part. Consumer spending is already fragile. Real wages have been negative for months. The average household is paying thousands more on essentials than two years ago. Now add a rate hike into that picture: > Small caps get repriced overnight. > Housing stocks lose their entire 2026 rally in a week. > Every unprofitable tech name that ran on cheap money gets crushed. Retail investors holding those positions find out only after the announcement. Wednesday is the Fed decision. Thursday brings Q2 GDP and PCE inflation data. Those are two of the year's most important reports, arriving back to back. This is exactly the setup where emotional investors get flattened. They panic sell on the headline, then chase the bounce out of FOMO. That cycle repeats on every intraday swing until the account is bleeding. The investors who come out ahead don't watch the Fed feed refresh. They already have a strategy running before the announcement hits. It runs on automated, rules-based logic, with no emotion and no guesswork. That's exactly what Surmount was built for:

Surmount

10,856 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat