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🚨S&P 500 DRAWDOWN AFTER AUGUST IN EVERY RECENT MIDTERM ELECTION YEAR: 1962: -12.3% 1966: -18.2% 1966: -7.1% 1974: -28.6% 1978: -9.3% 1982: -27.1% 1986: -8.4% 1990: -18.2% 1994: -9.3% 1998: -18.3% 2002: -21.1% 2006: -6.9% 2010: -16.0% 2014: -11.2% 2018: -21.2% 2022: -16.9% NOT A SINGLE POSITIVE RETURN IN...

54,805 просмотров • 18 дней назад •via X (Twitter)

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🚨 WE ARE NOW ENTERING THE HOTTEST PHASE Every midterm election year for the last 50 years has delivered a market drawdown: 1974 Ford: -35% 1978 Carter: -15% 1982 Reagan: -17% 1986 Reagan: -9% 1990 Bush: -20% 1994 Clinton: -8% 1998 Clinton: -22% 2002 Bush: -34% 2006 Bush: -8% 2010 Obama: -17% 2014 Obama: -7% 2018 Trump: -20% 2022 Biden: -27% 2026 Trump: ??? 13 midterm years. 13 drawdowns. Average intra-year drawdown: ~17%. But this year there’s another cycle hitting at the SAME time. A new Fed chair. Over the last nine decades: 12 new Fed chairs. 12 equity drawdowns within their first three months. Average: -12%. The last time both cycles collided was 2018. Powell became Fed chair. Markets broke almost immediately. By Christmas Eve: S&P 500: -20% Then Powell pivoted. 2019: S&P 500: +30% And now the timing gets even more interesting. Market fear historically bottoms in early summer. Then rises into September and October. The VIX was near the mid-teens in July. Now it’s already above 18. At the same time: Retail cash allocations are near extreme lows. Almost nobody is hedging. Record IPO supply is draining liquidity. And we’re entering the exact window where midterm-year corrections historically accelerate. But here’s what most people will get wrong: This is NOT where I become bearish long term. Every one of those 13 midterm drawdowns became a buying opportunity. 13 out of 13. Average rally from the midterm low: ~47%. That’s the opportunity I’m waiting for. First the fear. Then the bottom. The next 60 days could create the best buying opportunity of this cycle. Keep in mind: I publicly called Bitcoin’s $17K bottom in 2022 and the $126K top in 2025. When I start buying again, every call will be posted here first. Follow and turn notifications on.

Volt ⚡

88,405 просмотров • 11 дней назад

🚨 S&P 500 FALLS IN THIS PERIOD 93% OF CASES 🚨 Every midterm election year since 1962 (May to October) = market dump Not sometimes. 15 out of 16 times The worst ones: - 1962: -22.16% - 1966: -21.22% - 1974: -33.1% - 2002: -30.54% - 2022: -18.9% Recessions, bubbles, rate cycles - none of it broke the pattern So what's actually driving this? Three things And they hit at the same time. every single cycle 1. THE PRESIDENTIAL CYCLE New presidents always front-load the difficult decisions - Tax reform - Spending cuts - Policy shifts Nobody wants to do this close to re-election So they push it all into the FIRST TWO YEARS The market absorbs all of that pain during the midterm window Years 3 and 4 flip the script - stimulus, rate cuts, liquidity back in the system Markets recover. President takes the credit Nobody mentions who caused the pain two years earlier 2. POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY Most people focus only on the president. They miss the bigger story Midterms can flip Congress overnight When that happens - taxes change, spending changes, every regulation is on the table Big money doesn't wait to find out which way it goes It reduces exposure before the vote and comes back once the dust settles Uncertainty doesn't just slow markets. It empties them That's exactly why smart money moves in May And why "Sell in May and go away" exists 3. THE FED TIMING PROBLEM There's a reason the Fed always seems to get the timing wrong They don't. It's intentional Rates go up in year 1 and 2. That's the pain nobody talks about on camera Then rates come down in year 3 and 4 - right when the president needs good headlines before re-election Midterm year always lands at the top of that rate cycle The most expensive moment to borrow. The hardest moment to grow The Fed didn't miscalculate. The calendar just exposed them And then there's 2026 New president in year 2. Fed still restrictive. Congress up for grabs Every condition is in place. All three forces active at the same time My target: 6,200 by October That's a 17% decline from current levels History says this move is more likely than not Are you positioned for it? NOTIFS ON!

NoName

66,571 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

🚨 THE S&P 500 IS MORE DANGEROUS RIGHT NOW THAN IT LOOKS The illusion of safety is what makes people poor. I keep seeing people say the same thing: “It probably won’t crash. It always goes up. Just buy the index.” That is exactly what concerns me. When you buy an individual stock, you understand you can lose money. But with the S&P 500, it is different. Most people do not even consider the possibility of a real crash anymore. Just look at the Dot-Com Bubble: Back then, everyone also thought everything was fine. The internet was real. The companies were real. The index kept climbing, and people convinced themselves it would keep climbing for years. But the final stage of every bubble begins when prices become absurd and fear disappears. And prices right now are absurd again. The S&P 500 is printing new highs with barely any meaningful pullbacks. AI-related stocks are carrying the index. Capital is concentrated in a small group of companies. And retail confidence is once again moving into extreme territory. That is where we are now. People are not buying because the setup is cheap. They are buying because they believe the S&P 500 cannot fail. Remember: the market becomes most vulnerable when the majority stops seeing any risk. For the record: I’ve called all the market tops and bottoms for the last 15 years, including the Bitcoin bottom at $16,000 and the top at $126,000. The next call will be even more important. When I exit the markets completely, I’ll post it here publicly like I always do. Turn notifications on. If you’re not following yet, you’ll understand why that was a mistake later.

Alex Mason 👁△

92,244 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

Bitcoin is down ~47% from its October 2025 ATH of $126K. Fear & Greed at single digits. "BTC to zero” Google searches at 5-year highs. ETF outflows mounting. People are calling for $40K, even $25K. So I animated 15 years of drawdown data to put this moment in context. - - - Left: BTC price (log scale), colored by drawdown regime. Right: The distribution of every single day Bitcoin has spent at each drawdown depth from an ATH, built up in real time as price evolves. Importantly, the distribution evolves and is not static - the peaks/valleys grow over time - but what is the trend in how they’re evolving? This tells you something important about what Bitcoin is becoming. - - - There are 3 predominant drawdown regions: 🟢Green = 0 to -15% (Regime 1) ⚪️White = -15% to -35% (Transition) 🔴Red = ≤ -35% (Regime 2) Watch it build. 2011: -92.7% bottom. The histogram is a thin red smear. Almost all of Bitcoin's short existence spent deep underwater. 2013-2015: Another cycle, another -72% drawdown. The distribution fills in a fat red tail between -60% and -80%. Over 1,500 days in drawdown. Most of them brutal. 2017: BTC makes a brief ATH at $11,562, but the histogram tells us that with 2,524 drawdown days, red still dominates. Bitcoin had spent most of its life getting punished. 2018: -78.4%. The -60 to -80% band fills in further. Again, Bitcoin getting punished. This has been the story of the old Bitcoin. Then something shifts. By 2021, the green bars near 0% start growing much more. Bitcoin is beginning to spend more time near its highs than it used to. The distribution is migrating left. 2022 bottom: -68.5%. Still deep, but shallower than every prior cycle bottom. Each cycle's worst drawdown has gotten less severe: -92.7% → -87% → -84% → -77% → -68.5% The floor keeps rising, the green keeps growing, and the red tail is still there - but it's shrinking as a share of the whole. The transition zone is gaining more share too, but still markedly less time there than red or green (for example we just recently spent nearly 90 days in this zone after the Oct ‘25 ATH). This is what maturation looks like in the data. Not the absence of drawdowns, but the gradual compression of their severity and the accumulation of time spent near highs. - - - So where are we now? Down ~47% from $126K. Sentiment is the worst since June 2022. Everyone's asking if this is 2018 again. Probably not. Bitcoin has spent a structurally larger share of time in Regime 1 than ever before, especially in this cycle. Green-white oscillations are replacing the deep red plunges. The dives into Regime 2 are getting shallower. We could still go lower from here, but the data is compressing the downside, cycle over cycle. Whether the market believes that right now is a different question… - - - Worth a boomark 📙, as you might need to come back to this a few times to digest 🧠

Sminston With 👁

31,213 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад