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SpaceX shared a $100B annual recurring revenue target and is building enough compute capacity by next year to require the power output of 20 large nuclear reactors. Tasha Keeney and Daniel Maguire unpack SpaceX's Q2 earnings call—from AI capital spend to Starship's next test flight.

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BREAKING: Elon Musk says Google and Anthropic are leasing AI compute from SpaceX amid a growing power shortage, adding that SpaceX has brought AI compute online better than anyone else so far. “Even before next year, there are challenges with power, which is why Google, Anthropic and many other companies are leasing compute from SpaceX. We’ve been able to bring AI compute online better than anyone else so far. Constructing our own power plants is the only way we were able to do it”

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ELON MUSK: SpaceX could have closer to 10 GW of compute next year. “We are building and deploying compute, I think, faster; our rate of growth certainly is faster than anyone else and our efficiency of compute deployment, I think, is also the highest. So we expect to end this year with over two gigawatts of compute. And probably our cumulative compute online by the end of next year will be several times higher. So it may, let’s say, be closer to 10 gigawatts of compute than five gigawatts of compute. That’s the way to think about it.”

ELON MUSK: SpaceX could have closer to 10 GW of compute next year. “We are building and deploying compute, I think, faster; our rate of growth certainly is faster than anyone else and our efficiency of compute deployment, I think, is also the highest. So we expect to end this year with over two gigawatts of compute. And probably our cumulative compute online by the end of next year will be several times higher. So it may, let’s say, be closer to 10 gigawatts of compute than five gigawatts of compute. That’s the way to think about it.”

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Here’s Elon Musk explaining that SpaceX could launch up to one terawatt per year of AI compute capacity into Earth orbit — equivalent to the power output of roughly 1,000 nuclear power plants. “The next step beyond Earth data centers is our Earth orbital data centers. And we'll be launching with SpaceX orbital data centers at the 100-to-200-gigawatt-per-year level. Not cumulative, per year. And ultimately, we see a path to maybe launching as much as a terawatt per year of compute from Earth. But what if you want to go beyond a mere terawatt per year? In order to do that, you have to go to the Moon. So by having factories on the Moon, building AI satellites, and having a mass driver, which is the kind of thing you really only learn about in or read about in science fiction, but we're going to make it real. We're actually going to have a mass driver on the Moon. And if you do that, you can go several orders of magnitude greater. You can go to 1,000 gigawatts or more per year and ultimately get to maybe a millionth and then a thousandth and maybe even a few percent of the Sun's energy.” xAI All-Hands, February 10, 2026

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Elon Musk told SpaceX employees that AI revenue will exceed everything else SpaceX earns, starting in September: "Not probably, definitely, our AI revenue will exceed all other SpaceX revenue, probably in September, like next month," "and will significantly exceed all other SpaceX revenue in the fourth quarter." "So AI has become an extremely important part of SpaceX's future." "I think it's actually vital that we succeed in AI." SpaceX reported $7.81 billion in second-quarter revenue, up 92% from a year earlier, with AI revenue at $2.56 billion. The remark came in a company update SpaceX published on August 11. - Elon Musk (Elon Musk), SpaceX company update, SpaceX

Elon Musk told SpaceX employees that AI revenue will exceed everything else SpaceX earns, starting in September: "Not probably, definitely, our AI revenue will exceed all other SpaceX revenue, probably in September, like next month," "and will significantly exceed all other SpaceX revenue in the fourth quarter." "So AI has become an extremely important part of SpaceX's future." "I think it's actually vital that we succeed in AI." SpaceX reported $7.81 billion in second-quarter revenue, up 92% from a year earlier, with AI revenue at $2.56 billion. The remark came in a company update SpaceX published on August 11. - Elon Musk (Elon Musk), SpaceX company update, SpaceX

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Starship’s twelfth flight test will debut the next generation Starship and Super Heavy vehicles, powered by the next evolution of the Raptor engine and launching from a newly designed pad at Starbase. The launch is targeted as early as Tuesday, May 19 →

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Morgan Stanley projects SpaceX revenue growing from $18.7B today to $3.4T by 2040. Peter H. Diamandis, MD flagged it immediately as a fundraising tool - Morgan Stanley is likely an IPO underwriter. He's probably right. But Dave Blundin's structural point survives: SpaceX's revenue mix has already changed. Starlink ($11B), launch ($4B), and compute rental to Google and Anthropic ($3.2B and growing). That's not a rocket company. That's tech infrastructure. No one else can match SpaceX's launch economics for deploying AI-1's 1 million satellite Dyson swarm. That compute advantage has no terrestrial equivalent. SpaceX valuation and the AI compute angle: Source: Moonshots with Peter Diamandis -

Morgan Stanley projects SpaceX revenue growing from $18.7B today to $3.4T by 2040. Peter H. Diamandis, MD flagged it immediately as a fundraising tool - Morgan Stanley is likely an IPO underwriter. He's probably right. But Dave Blundin's structural point survives: SpaceX's revenue mix has already changed. Starlink ($11B), launch ($4B), and compute rental to Google and Anthropic ($3.2B and growing). That's not a rocket company. That's tech infrastructure. No one else can match SpaceX's launch economics for deploying AI-1's 1 million satellite Dyson swarm. That compute advantage has no terrestrial equivalent. SpaceX valuation and the AI compute angle: Source: Moonshots with Peter Diamandis -

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Starship’s fifth flight test was a seminal moment in iterating towards a fully and rapidly reusable launch system. Next up: the sixth flight test of Starship is targeted to launch as early as Monday, November 18 →

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The cleanest test of the AI cycle is what $NVDA is actually shipping, and current expectations still point to revenue climbing from ~$95B this quarter toward ~$110B next quarter. If revenue keeps rising while gross margins hold around 75% then it becomes much harder to argue the compute boom is already rolling over. That demand base is still expanding too with $SPCX potentially growing from ~4% of Nvidia revenue today toward 10% by the end of 2027 as its compute buildout scales.

The cleanest test of the AI cycle is what $NVDA is actually shipping, and current expectations still point to revenue climbing from ~$95B this quarter toward ~$110B next quarter. If revenue keeps rising while gross margins hold around 75% then it becomes much harder to argue the compute boom is already rolling over. That demand base is still expanding too with $SPCX potentially growing from ~4% of Nvidia revenue today toward 10% by the end of 2027 as its compute buildout scales.

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