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Stanford PhD David Magerman helped shape Renaissance Technologies legendary trading models for over 20 years. Here he breaks down why you can’t compete with algorithmic trading models:

96,950 次观看 • 6 个月前 •via X (Twitter)

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Inside Goldman Sachs' natural gas trading desk with John Knorring John Knorring — former Managing Director & Head of Natural Gas Trading at Goldman Sachs. Traded through Katrina, Amaranth's collapse & the financial crisis. Now building electricity hedging markets in the emerging markets. "We priced Lehman's entire options book — 500,000 options, 17 million vega — in 30 minutes during the collapse. At Goldman, you had to know your position at all times or you got fired." We cover: - Trading in the actual pits vs today's algo-dominated markets — why electronic trading pushed him out - How shale dropped US nat gas from $16 to $1.50 & why Henry Hub futures unlocked the entire buildout - Absorbing Lehman's book during the crisis & managing massive dislocated positions - The information edge at Goldman vs pure price-taking at DRW — what you lose without client flow - Why discretionary trading can't be fully automated (gold hitting $4,000 wasn't in any model's history) - Building Green Tiger Markets — bringing forward curves to Philippine electricity (zero public pricing until 2 years ago) ~$2B notional in hedging orders processed, liquidity still early but growing - Manila vs New York business culture — "nobody wants to be first, everyone wants to be second" Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 01:35 Leading natural gas trading at Goldman Sachs 04:06 Trading hurricanes, Amaranth, and 2008 crisis volatility 04:48 How pit trading and voice execution worked 06:21 How Goldman risk systems handled massive positions 06:55 How electronic trading transformed energy markets 08:31 Did algorithmic trading kill discretionary edge? 09:59 Why coding became essential for commodity traders 11:10 What pit-era trading psychology felt like 12:34 How Dodd-Frank changed bank trading desks 14:19 Why John left Goldman for DRW prop trading 16:16 What discretionary traders actually did at DRW 19:14 How losing client flow changed information edges 21:20 What data powered discretionary energy strategies 24:19 Can discretionary trading ever be automated? 28:45 How traders detect paradigm shifts in commodities 30:21 John’s framework: ideas, execution, money management 34:30 John’s current trades in silver and gold 34:49 Why he built Green Tiger Markets in PH 36:30 How electricity forward hedging works in emerging markets 41:52 Growth outlook for Philippines electricity hedging 45:25 Are PH market participants sophisticated enough to hedge? 48:20 Cultural realities trading and doing business in Manila 51:20 How GTM differs from ICE and CME structures 59:20 Origin story: Carlos, technology, and building GTM 1:00:34 From Goldman trader to emerging-market exchange builder

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70,455 次观看 • 6 个月前