Statistical Correlation of Statcast Stats vs. Home Runs: 1. Barrel Rate - 0.73 🥇 2. Bat Speed - 0.40 🥈 3. Hard-Hit Rate - 0.39 🥉 4. Average Exit Velocity - 0.36 Consistently recording Barrels is over two times as important as Avg. EV in hitting home runs (2025 Data)

Thats because of what barrels are lol. If a type of hit didn't correlate to home runs, or really just good results but obv HRs are the best result, then it wouldnt be a barrel. Its sort of a circular definition

It’s a slightly misleading approach because it combines launch angle and exit velocity, but both are still valid stats and get treated on an equal basis

EV is only half of the equation. Who cares how hard you hit the ball straight into the ground. Barrels show you’re getting the optimal launch angles to do real damage

So the combination of launch angle and exit velocity are a better correlation than them independent. Who would have thought?

Now do the correlative values to EV ranges with barrell rates

Could you look at these same metrics as predictors? As in year 1 barrel rate with year 2 home runs?

I will do what I can with this when I have time. This would be really interesting!

Jackson Merrill do WHAT YOU WERE BORN TO DO: LEAD! Baby LEAD

Who would have thought that? Haha, almost like hitting the ball on the sweet spot of the bat makes it travel further.

It’s meant to compare the different metrics. Just because I don’t see Barrel Rates talked about as often as other metrics sometimes

No I know and I agree, which is sort of shocking

Batted ball distance?

Gotta compare launch angle to some maximally ideal angle rather than trying to correlate to magnitude of launch angle

It seems there is a decent amount of overlap in the signal that is being captured by some or all of those metrics, no?

So is the play to wait until 50 batted ball events, when Barrel Rate holds some statistical significance, then contrast players with high Barrel Rates yet low HR totals… and buy low on those players?