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Steve Eisman on private equity's software problem: "Private Equity investments in these software companies…they’ll never get out.” “…The public multiples have been cut by more than half. There's nothing you can do about that." Eisman doesn’t think mergers solve this either given the multiples will still remain compressed.

Wall Street Rollup

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204,055 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад •via X (Twitter)

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The Big Short’s Steve Eisman roasts Software Private Equity investors: "Never underestimate the importance of an excel spreadsheet in the way people think about companies.”

The Big Short’s Steve Eisman roasts Software Private Equity investors: "Never underestimate the importance of an excel spreadsheet in the way people think about companies.”

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Steve Eisman on the issues in Software lending in Private Credit: “When it’s time to get them refinanced, who’s going to want to lend to them when the equity is less than half?” “The equity value has been obliterated.”

Steve Eisman on the issues in Software lending in Private Credit: “When it’s time to get them refinanced, who’s going to want to lend to them when the equity is less than half?” “The equity value has been obliterated.”

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We talked with Alex Jacobson (Co-Founder & Managing Partner) about the evolving private markets. "SpaceX gives employees equity and runs tenders regularly so that equity becomes liquidity. Although the liquidity price is lower than public market value, employees know their equity will grow because SpaceX keeps expanding. "The strategy is to give employees certainty that the equity they've been issued will be worth a lot more in the future. That is harder to do in the public markets because everything is perfectly priced. In private markets, if you run your process properly, you can have this very deterministic outcome for your employees."

We talked with Alex Jacobson (Co-Founder & Managing Partner) about the evolving private markets. "SpaceX gives employees equity and runs tenders regularly so that equity becomes liquidity. Although the liquidity price is lower than public market value, employees know their equity will grow because SpaceX keeps expanding. "The strategy is to give employees certainty that the equity they've been issued will be worth a lot more in the future. That is harder to do in the public markets because everything is perfectly priced. In private markets, if you run your process properly, you can have this very deterministic outcome for your employees."

TBPN

11,556 просмотров • 1 год назад

Zohran Mamdani is right about the city’s grocery problem: Costs for groceries are breaking the bank for many New Yorkers. But he doesn’t seem to know that public grocery stores have already been tried, and have failed, across the country — or that the private sector can solve the problem, if the government helped rather than hindered it. Rikki Schlott breaks down what you need to know.

Zohran Mamdani is right about the city’s grocery problem: Costs for groceries are breaking the bank for many New Yorkers. But he doesn’t seem to know that public grocery stores have already been tried, and have failed, across the country — or that the private sector can solve the problem, if the government helped rather than hindered it. Rikki Schlott breaks down what you need to know.

New York Post

207,725 просмотров • 1 год назад

Benedict Evans says AI means more software, not less: "There's going to be a bunch of stuff you could do with software that you just couldn't do before at all. And so there will be more competition." "If you think about the enterprise software fleet today, you've got three buckets... big iron horizontal systems, so SAP and Workday and your CRM... vertical software... and then in the middle, this fuzzy improvised space of Excel and email and the shared file system." "Now you add ChatGPT to that. Do you do that in an LLM? Is there an LLM tool that means you can do that in Salesforce where you couldn't do it before, or you can do it in your vertical app that you couldn't do before?" "All of which is a long way of saying, what does this do to software? And it must be more software. Way more software." Benedict Evans with Erik Torenberg

Benedict Evans says AI means more software, not less: "There's going to be a bunch of stuff you could do with software that you just couldn't do before at all. And so there will be more competition." "If you think about the enterprise software fleet today, you've got three buckets... big iron horizontal systems, so SAP and Workday and your CRM... vertical software... and then in the middle, this fuzzy improvised space of Excel and email and the shared file system." "Now you add ChatGPT to that. Do you do that in an LLM? Is there an LLM tool that means you can do that in Salesforce where you couldn't do it before, or you can do it in your vertical app that you couldn't do before?" "All of which is a long way of saying, what does this do to software? And it must be more software. Way more software." Benedict Evans with Erik Torenberg

a16z

36,975 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

When Will a16z Go Public: " There's nothing that we're missing today that we could solve by going public... I can imagine venture firms going public. I think you'd have to have a real theory on the value that you would get, and you would have to really sign up for what it really takes to run a public company these days." Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸

When Will a16z Go Public: " There's nothing that we're missing today that we could solve by going public... I can imagine venture firms going public. I think you'd have to have a real theory on the value that you would get, and you would have to really sign up for what it really takes to run a public company these days." Marc Andreessen 🇺🇸

Harry Stebbings

14,395 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад

Orlando Bravo: "The SaaSpocalypse is over... AI is an enormous, enormous tailwind for software companies... I was here last year at Super Return, and I think one of the LLM leaders made a comment that by this year, 50% of all white-collar jobs are going to be gone. And somebody in private equity made a comment that 50% of the people in this conference wouldn't have a job by next year. And look at the conference. You even had security outside. There's more people here than ever before... Our companies, 60% of the code that they write is machine-generated. But our number of developers, we have 20,000 of them, they're going up because now they can be a lot more productive."

Orlando Bravo: "The SaaSpocalypse is over... AI is an enormous, enormous tailwind for software companies... I was here last year at Super Return, and I think one of the LLM leaders made a comment that by this year, 50% of all white-collar jobs are going to be gone. And somebody in private equity made a comment that 50% of the people in this conference wouldn't have a job by next year. And look at the conference. You even had security outside. There's more people here than ever before... Our companies, 60% of the code that they write is machine-generated. But our number of developers, we have 20,000 of them, they're going up because now they can be a lot more productive."

Marcelo P. Lima

208,759 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

BRENNAN: As a conservative, do you think the government should have ownership stakes in private companies? MIKE LAWLER: Generally speaking, no ... I think what the president is seemingly trying to do is get a return on these tens of billions of dollars that are being invested by US taxpayers into companies like Intel

BRENNAN: As a conservative, do you think the government should have ownership stakes in private companies? MIKE LAWLER: Generally speaking, no ... I think what the president is seemingly trying to do is get a return on these tens of billions of dollars that are being invested by US taxpayers into companies like Intel

Aaron Rupar

609,202 просмотров • 1 год назад

Ford CEO Jim Farley on why it's so difficult for legacy car companies to get software right & why Tesla’s vertically integrated approach is the right one: “We farmed out all the modules that control the vehicles to our suppliers because we could bid them against each other, so Bosch would do the body control module, someone else would do the seat control module, someone else would do the engine control module. We have about 150 of these modules with semiconductors all through the car. The problem is the software are all written by you know 150 different companies and they don't talk to each other. So even though it says Ford on the front, I actually have to go to Bosch to get permission to change their seat Control software. So even if I had a high-speed modem in the vehicle and and I had the ability to write their software, it's actually their IP and I have 150, we call it the loose Confederation of software providers, 150 completely different software programming languages, you know all the structure of the software is different. It’s millions of code and we can't even understand it all. That's why at Ford we've decided in the second generation product to completely insource electric architecture. To do that you need to write all the software yourself, but just remember car companies have never written software like this, ever, so we're literally writing how the vehicle operates the software to operate the vehicle for the first time ever.” via Everything Electric Show:

Ford CEO Jim Farley on why it's so difficult for legacy car companies to get software right & why Tesla’s vertically integrated approach is the right one: “We farmed out all the modules that control the vehicles to our suppliers because we could bid them against each other, so Bosch would do the body control module, someone else would do the seat control module, someone else would do the engine control module. We have about 150 of these modules with semiconductors all through the car. The problem is the software are all written by you know 150 different companies and they don't talk to each other. So even though it says Ford on the front, I actually have to go to Bosch to get permission to change their seat Control software. So even if I had a high-speed modem in the vehicle and and I had the ability to write their software, it's actually their IP and I have 150, we call it the loose Confederation of software providers, 150 completely different software programming languages, you know all the structure of the software is different. It’s millions of code and we can't even understand it all. That's why at Ford we've decided in the second generation product to completely insource electric architecture. To do that you need to write all the software yourself, but just remember car companies have never written software like this, ever, so we're literally writing how the vehicle operates the software to operate the vehicle for the first time ever.” via Everything Electric Show:

Sawyer Merritt

1,172,994 просмотров • 1 год назад

Vlad Tenev says Robinhood wants thousands of stocks onchain, including private companies. “We have about 200 stock tokens now.” “We’ve got to get that up into the thousands.” “I’ve been talking about private stock tokens for a while.” “You should expect that at large scale.” “A lot of private companies have reached out about how they can be a part of tokenization.” “Look at the Robinhood app in the US and imagine onchain versions of all those.”

Vlad Tenev says Robinhood wants thousands of stocks onchain, including private companies. “We have about 200 stock tokens now.” “We’ve got to get that up into the thousands.” “I’ve been talking about private stock tokens for a while.” “You should expect that at large scale.” “A lot of private companies have reached out about how they can be a part of tokenization.” “Look at the Robinhood app in the US and imagine onchain versions of all those.”

Etan

56,836 просмотров • 8 дней назад

"The founder is the asset class... The IPO is another financing event." a16z's David George and Santiago Rodriguez on why the biggest companies are staying private: Santiago: "If you look at the top six companies today, Anthropic, OpenAI, Databricks, Stripe, Waymo, and Revolut, by last round valuation, they add up to about $2.4 trillion." "This is more than the combined market cap of IPOs we've seen in the last 10 years, excluding SpaceX, which adds up to $1.7 trillion." David: "Especially for founder-led companies, one of the things that we've talked about and that I've written about is that the founder is the asset class at this point." "The bet that we make, and part of the reason that it's been a benefit for some of these companies to remain private, is they can many times take bigger swings in the private markets that have longer duration paybacks." "Zuck and Elon are kind of obvious exceptions to the rule in the public markets." "You see it manifest in the numbers in companies like Databricks or Stripe: massive, massive new bets in new product areas, and you can see revenue acceleration that happens as a result." "You can do that in the public markets, but it's gonna catch greater scrutiny. Meta's stock price at the nadir got below 100 bucks a share when people were very, very skeptical about their investments in AR/VR." David George Santiago Rodriguez

"The founder is the asset class... The IPO is another financing event." a16z's David George and Santiago Rodriguez on why the biggest companies are staying private: Santiago: "If you look at the top six companies today, Anthropic, OpenAI, Databricks, Stripe, Waymo, and Revolut, by last round valuation, they add up to about $2.4 trillion." "This is more than the combined market cap of IPOs we've seen in the last 10 years, excluding SpaceX, which adds up to $1.7 trillion." David: "Especially for founder-led companies, one of the things that we've talked about and that I've written about is that the founder is the asset class at this point." "The bet that we make, and part of the reason that it's been a benefit for some of these companies to remain private, is they can many times take bigger swings in the private markets that have longer duration paybacks." "Zuck and Elon are kind of obvious exceptions to the rule in the public markets." "You see it manifest in the numbers in companies like Databricks or Stripe: massive, massive new bets in new product areas, and you can see revenue acceleration that happens as a result." "You can do that in the public markets, but it's gonna catch greater scrutiny. Meta's stock price at the nadir got below 100 bucks a share when people were very, very skeptical about their investments in AR/VR." David George Santiago Rodriguez

a16z

35,381 просмотров • 8 дней назад

Fivetran CEO George Fraser's theory of the SaaSpocalypse: "There's a lot more uncertainty embedded in all these SaaS companies... than there was a year ago." "I don't really buy into this reason that all these SaaS categories are gonna disappear and be replaced with vibe-coded software. I think there will be some, but I think the bigger threat is simply new companies coming along. It is just so much easier to write software now that AI-native companies will just zoom and catch up to the established incumbents and maybe be better." George Fraser with martin_casado

Fivetran CEO George Fraser's theory of the SaaSpocalypse: "There's a lot more uncertainty embedded in all these SaaS companies... than there was a year ago." "I don't really buy into this reason that all these SaaS categories are gonna disappear and be replaced with vibe-coded software. I think there will be some, but I think the bigger threat is simply new companies coming along. It is just so much easier to write software now that AI-native companies will just zoom and catch up to the established incumbents and maybe be better." George Fraser with martin_casado

a16z

30,713 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

Sequoia’s Shaun Maguire wrote a private hardware manifesto arguing that over the next 25 years, most of the money will be made in hardware: "Every software revolution is preceded by a hardware revolution." "To have the iOS App Store that enabled Uber, DoorDash, and all of these great companies - you needed to have the iPhone." "This AI revolution - we're seeing what it can do from the software layer, but it's still limited by hardware." "The hardware we were doing for a long time was all following Moore's Law. It was all branching out of this decision in the mid-1950s to go all in on the silicon supply chain." "That has created magic, and there's still a couple orders of magnitude of juice to squeeze, but we’re hitting fundamental physics limits - Dennard scaling, things like that." "I think this tech tree is branching into humanoid robots, into silicon photonics, into orbital data centers - all of these new hardware areas where there's going to be 20+ years of progress." "There's going to be incredible businesses built on the back of this. And a lot of dumpster fires."

Sequoia’s Shaun Maguire wrote a private hardware manifesto arguing that over the next 25 years, most of the money will be made in hardware: "Every software revolution is preceded by a hardware revolution." "To have the iOS App Store that enabled Uber, DoorDash, and all of these great companies - you needed to have the iPhone." "This AI revolution - we're seeing what it can do from the software layer, but it's still limited by hardware." "The hardware we were doing for a long time was all following Moore's Law. It was all branching out of this decision in the mid-1950s to go all in on the silicon supply chain." "That has created magic, and there's still a couple orders of magnitude of juice to squeeze, but we’re hitting fundamental physics limits - Dennard scaling, things like that." "I think this tech tree is branching into humanoid robots, into silicon photonics, into orbital data centers - all of these new hardware areas where there's going to be 20+ years of progress." "There's going to be incredible businesses built on the back of this. And a lot of dumpster fires."

TBPN

218,127 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад

#WATCH | Mumbai, Maharashtra: On the Jevons paradox and software demand expansion, Neelkanth Mishra, Executive Director Designate of the World Bank, says, “…If you think about what the major cost of a software firm is, it is people. So, if the writing of software is getting automated, those firms will be the first to make adjustments. But on the whole, it seems that the Jevons paradox—which dictates that as the cost of writing software falls, the amount of software written goes up—is actually playing out. If an XYZ company, which is a product company, was spending, say, $100 million on writing software and can now do it for $70 million, they might need to lay off some people; that is their business priority. But if the amount of software written goes up three to four times, the number of software engineers in the ecosystem will not change… This panic and paranoia about massive job losses is something that I think is, at this stage, unfounded.”

#WATCH | Mumbai, Maharashtra: On the Jevons paradox and software demand expansion, Neelkanth Mishra, Executive Director Designate of the World Bank, says, “…If you think about what the major cost of a software firm is, it is people. So, if the writing of software is getting automated, those firms will be the first to make adjustments. But on the whole, it seems that the Jevons paradox—which dictates that as the cost of writing software falls, the amount of software written goes up—is actually playing out. If an XYZ company, which is a product company, was spending, say, $100 million on writing software and can now do it for $70 million, they might need to lay off some people; that is their business priority. But if the amount of software written goes up three to four times, the number of software engineers in the ecosystem will not change… This panic and paranoia about massive job losses is something that I think is, at this stage, unfounded.”

ANI

114,594 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

Probably the best take I have heard on why there is so much fear around software exposure in private equity and credit because of AI From David Sacks "Historically we only had two good exits for software businesses. One was IPO. The other was M&A. Then these big private equity shops came along and gave us a third potential exit. You would sell to them and then they would raise the capital based on one third equity and two third debt. So it was debt financed buyouts. It is something that has been around in the non technology part of the economy for a long time but was a relatively new entrant in the world of technology. And the reason for that is if you have debt financed a purchase, you need to have very stable cash flows. Because if you miss and you cant pay your interest on the debt, you will lose all your equity because the debt holders will foreclose. It was belief for a long time that software did have predictable cash flows, at least for the mature businesses."

Probably the best take I have heard on why there is so much fear around software exposure in private equity and credit because of AI From David Sacks "Historically we only had two good exits for software businesses. One was IPO. The other was M&A. Then these big private equity shops came along and gave us a third potential exit. You would sell to them and then they would raise the capital based on one third equity and two third debt. So it was debt financed buyouts. It is something that has been around in the non technology part of the economy for a long time but was a relatively new entrant in the world of technology. And the reason for that is if you have debt financed a purchase, you need to have very stable cash flows. Because if you miss and you cant pay your interest on the debt, you will lose all your equity because the debt holders will foreclose. It was belief for a long time that software did have predictable cash flows, at least for the mature businesses."

Boring_Business

404,277 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад

Gokul (Gokul Rajaram) explains why utility-based software companies like Zendesk are more exposed to AI than systems of record like NetSuite, and why public markets aren't distinguishing between the two: "The software companies that should be the most worried right now is where they are pricing the product based on utility. Zendesk is a good example. Instead of paying for 50 Zendesk seats, you can pay for 20 and I can have 30 AI agents sitting next to Zendesk. For these companies you need to change your pricing model to be based on outcome. It's going to be hard for them to stay public. The companies that are less exposed are ones based on data that has been collected and captured over a period of time. ERP is a great example. There is no compelling reason for someone to put their career at stake by ripping out NetSuite. NetSuite has more time to build AI agents on top of it because they have the data, they can train the AI agent on top of it and bundle it. I think the public markets do not distinguish between these two types of companies." (Jan 2026)

Gokul (Gokul Rajaram) explains why utility-based software companies like Zendesk are more exposed to AI than systems of record like NetSuite, and why public markets aren't distinguishing between the two: "The software companies that should be the most worried right now is where they are pricing the product based on utility. Zendesk is a good example. Instead of paying for 50 Zendesk seats, you can pay for 20 and I can have 30 AI agents sitting next to Zendesk. For these companies you need to change your pricing model to be based on outcome. It's going to be hard for them to stay public. The companies that are less exposed are ones based on data that has been collected and captured over a period of time. ERP is a great example. There is no compelling reason for someone to put their career at stake by ripping out NetSuite. NetSuite has more time to build AI agents on top of it because they have the data, they can train the AI agent on top of it and bundle it. I think the public markets do not distinguish between these two types of companies." (Jan 2026)

Invest Like the Best

63,411 просмотров • 13 дней назад

Great to see this get a mention from Amy Remeikis on #Insiders: "We're still going to have Work for the Dole. We're still going to have the private Workforce providers receiving billions of dollars, and you can imagine there's a huge section of the community upset about that"

Great to see this get a mention from Amy Remeikis on #Insiders: "We're still going to have Work for the Dole. We're still going to have the private Workforce providers receiving billions of dollars, and you can imagine there's a huge section of the community upset about that"

jeremy poxon

101,011 просмотров • 2 лет назад