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STRATEGY IS BECOMING A MASSIVE $BTC DISTRIBUTION CHANNEL Saylor says around 100 million people are getting Bitcoin exposure through Strategy’s $MSTR common stock. That keeps the institutional-demand story alive and makes MSTR one of the clearest BTC proxy trades to watch. 🎥: MR SHIFT 🦁

20,710 次观看 • 3 个月前 •via X (Twitter)

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🔥STRATEGY WILL BE THE WORLD'S MOST VALUABLE COMPANY - BITCOIN WILL FLIP GOLD🔥 Think Bitcoin is going to eventually flip gold as the world's #1 asset? In that case, you should be bullish on $MSTR! NAPKIN MATH: Let's make it simple with 20 million circulating BTC and gold also sees some inflows so it's $40T by the time the BTC flippening of gold happens. $40T / 20 million = $2 million per Bitcoin. When does this happen? No idea. Let's say it happens in 2038. Let's say zero MSTR mNAV expansion. Zero new Bitcoin acquired. They pay 12% on STRC until then. Dividends paid with MSTR issuance. They pay 0.55% on their debt and it never goes away (lol). RESULT: Bitcoin goes from $62,875 to $2 million. BTC return: 31.81x MSTR goes from $93.28 to approximately $4,253. MSTR return: 45.60x Again: Zero new Bitcoin acquired. Zero mNAV expansion. The preferreds remain outstanding. The debt remains outstanding. MSTR spends approximately $22.7 billion servicing STRC dividends and debt interest over the 12 years, entirely through common-stock issuance. And MSTR still outperforms Bitcoin. HOW DOES THAT HAPPEN? At the beginning, MSTR’s net senior claims equal approximately 292,251 BTC. At $2 million per Bitcoin, those exact same dollar claims equal only 9,188 BTC. The liabilities never disappear. They simply get beaten within an inch of their economic lives by the denominator. That releases approximately 283,064 BTC of residual value to the common equity without Strategy purchasing one additional sat. Common shareholders’ residual claim rises: 551,524 BTC → 834,587 BTC Paying 12 years of dividends and interest through MSTR issuance increases the share count by only: 384.6 million → 406.0 million Just 5.6% dilution. So CEBE per share rises: 143,404 sats → 205,562 sats That is 43.3% growth in claims-adjusted Bitcoin exposure per share while the gross Bitcoin treasury remains completely unchanged. The return equation becomes: 31.81x BTC appreciation × 1.433x CEBE-per-share growth × 1.00x mNAV change = 45.60x MSTR $10,000 invested in Bitcoin becomes approximately $318,000. $10,000 invested in MSTR becomes approximately. $456,000 MSTR creates roughly $138,000 of additional terminal wealth on the same $10,000 investment while buying zero additional Bitcoin. This is the part MSTR bears cannot process because their mental model of a capital structure is a shoebox with the word “DEBT” written on the lid in crayon. MSTR is not merely a static jar of Bitcoin. Common shareholders own the residual claim behind fixed-fiat liabilities wrapped around scarce collateral. As Bitcoin appreciates, those dollar liabilities consume fewer sats. The value released by that compression flows to common equity. At $2 million Bitcoin, the debt is still technically there. It just has the economic significance of a parking ticket taped to an aircraft carrier. The Bitcoin flippening would not merely dethrone gold. It would turn MSTR’s capital structure into a 12 year public execution of the dollar denominator:

Adam Livingston

24,380 次观看 • 2 个月前

I ran a BRUTAL 3-year MSTR stress test. Not the cute kind. The “Bitcoin crashes 55% from here, mNAV collapses below 0.50x, capital markets are closed, cash gets burned, BTC has to be sold to pay the senior stack, and everyone on X is filming their victory lap in the clown mirror” kind. Starting point: BTC: $59,135 MSTR: $87.64 Total BTC: 847,363 Cash: $1.4B CEBE: 138,161 sats/share Claim ratio: 41.5% Then the model nukes BTC to $26,611 by month 6. The senior stack does exactly what fixed-dollar claims do when collateral crashes. It explodes in BTC terms. Senior claims go from 351,567 BTC to 819,073 BTC. Claim ratio spikes from 41.5% to 96.7%. Common equity BTC collapses from 495,796 BTC to 28,290 BTC. CEBE gets annihilated: 138,161 sats/share → 7,884 sats/share. MSTR stock gets modeled from $87.64 to $1.01. That is the horror movie. Would the stock price actually go this low in that scenario? I doubt it. 2022 had NEGATIVE -14,000+ of common equity sats exposure and the stock never dropped below $10. But here is where the bear case gets uncomfortable. The model assumes: Zero new BTC buys. Zero common issuance. $167.7M/month of obligations. Cash gone by month 9. BTC sales begin after cash is exhausted. Over 3 years, MSTR sells 115,727 BTC to keep servicing the stack. That is real damage. But it still ends with 731,636 BTC. Final state: BTC: $48,498 MSTR: $51.86 mNAV: 1.40x Common equity BTC: 274,093 CEBE: 76,380 sats/share Claim ratio: 62.5% MSTR survives. The common gets dragged through flaming glass for 18 months, but it survives. The real risk is not “instant bankruptcy" like all the FUD spreaders are telling you. The real risk is CEBE compression while fixed-dollar senior claims temporarily consume almost the entire Bitcoin stack in BTC-equivalent terms. Survival is not comfort. But death spiral? This model says no.

Adam Livingston

122,307 次观看 • 3 个月前

🚀WHAT PRICE WILL MSTR BE AT $1 MILLION BITCOIN?🚀 I handicapped the absolute hell out of this model. Bitcoin rises from $65,993 to $1,000,000 over 8 full years. The entire STR preferred stack remains at a 12% dividend rate for all 96 months. The rate never declines. MSTR common stock is issued to fund every dollar of dividends, so shareholders absorb the dilution. No additional debt is added. No MSTR is sold at a premium to acquire Bitcoin... EVER. mNAV is only permitted to rise modestly as STRC scales. Strategy has already raised approximately $16.4 billion in 2026 through July 19, a roughly $29.9 billion annualized pace. Yet these scenarios allow only $0 to $6 billion of annual STRC issuance: $0/month - no STRC ever issued | 1.023× mNAV | $2,100 MSTR | 21.08× return | 1.39× Bitcoin’s multiple (+39%) $100M/month | $1.2B/year, 4% of current pace | 1.10× mNAV | $2,292 MSTR | 23.01× | 1.52× Bitcoin (+52%) $200M/month | $2.4B/year, 8% of pace | 1.20× mNAV | $2,540 MSTR | 25.50× | 1.68× Bitcoin (+68%) $300M/month | $3.6B/year, 12% of pace | 1.30× mNAV | $2,796 MSTR | 28.07× | 1.85× Bitcoin (+85%) $400M/month | $4.8B/year, 16% of pace | 1.40× mNAV | $3,060 MSTR | 30.73× | 2.03× Bitcoin (+103%) $500M/month | $6B/year, 20% of pace | 1.50× mNAV | $3,333 MSTR | 33.47× | 2.21× Bitcoin (+121%) Bitcoin itself returns 15.15×. The most important result is the first one. With zero new STRC issuance and absolutely zero mNAV expansion, MSTR still reaches approximately $2,100 and outperforms Bitcoin. Stock Multiple = BTC Multiple × CEBE Sats/Share Multiple × CEBE mNAV Multiple 15.15× BTC appreciation × 1.39× CEBE sats/share accretion × 1.00× mNAV change = 21.08× MSTR. The amplification is already embedded in the balance sheet. The market does not need to award MSTR a higher valuation multiple for it to work. Even in the $500M monthly STRC scenario, Strategy finishes with only 987,098 Bitcoin. Yes, the $3,333 model example includes a scenario where they fail to reach 1 million BTC in the next 8 years. If Bitcoin goes up... the machine works:

Adam Livingston

46,305 次观看 • 2 个月前