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“Strategy is going bankrupt.” Peter Schiff just said this today. Saylor’s response? He already gave it two months ago: “You can’t pay a dividend on preferred stock that would create an insolvency event.” Translation: preferred stock does not force bankruptcy. If Strategy can’t pay the dividend without becoming insolvent,...

281,428 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten •via X (Twitter)

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Michael Saylor spent 2025 telling people to sell a kidney before selling Bitcoin. Then he literally dumped $323 million of it since May. He just went on Diary of a CEO and exposed himself as a hypocrite in his own words: His company holds 842,138 Bitcoin. That is roughly 4% of every coin that will ever exist, which makes it the largest corporate holder on Earth. In February 2025 he posted "Sell a kidney if you must, but keep the Bitcoin." Weeks earlier he had written that selling weakens the network. But here is what his own filings show since May: - 32 Bitcoin sold between May 26 and May 31 for $2.5 million - 3,588 Bitcoin sold between June 29 and July 5 for $216 million, the largest disposal in company history - 1,638 Bitcoin sold between July 27 and August 2 for $104.73 million That last batch went out at an average of $63,957 a coin. His average purchase price is around $75,400. He sold at a LOSS. New Bitcoin purchases are currently paused. So why is the loudest Bitcoin bull alive selling coins for less than he paid? The answer is a bill he built himself, and he walked through the whole thing on that podcast without once connecting it to the selling. He went to ChatGPT and asked it to design a security nobody had ever built, a preferred stock where he could change the dividend rate every month. He says the lawyers and bankers told him it had never been done before. He brought it to market as a $2.5 billion IPO, then sold another $8 billion off a shelf registration. His own framing of that: Selling $15 billion of credit "kind of equates to the company making about $15 billion." Selling credit is borrowing. Every dollar came attached to a dividend he now has to pay in cash, forever, whether Bitcoin goes up or not. Strategy owes over $1.7 billion a year across five preferred instruments and its debt. The software business does not come close to covering that. So the Bitcoin covers it. The break-even is 3.2%. So if Bitcoin appreciates 3.2% a year, they can pay those dividends indefinitely by selling Bitcoin to do it. He called the sale a one-time demonstration to break a short seller narrative and said selling is not the primary strategy. His own CEO Phong Le told the Q2 earnings call that Strategy will sell whenever management finds it advantageous, and that investors should expect more going forward. Now look at who ends up holding the bag: That preferred stock is majority owned by retail investors, and it dropped to $89 against a $100 par value in June. Retail Bitcoin holders get told to hold through anything while retail preferred holders get paid a yield funded by selling that same Bitcoin at a loss. He opened that same episode explaining that Bitcoin lets you own something nobody more powerful can take away from you. In 2024 he paid $40 million to settle what the DC Attorney General called the LARGEST income tax fraud recovery in the city's history. The complaint said he claimed residency in Florida while his own security logs placed him in Washington for 1,397 days against 449 in Florida. He settled without admitting wrongdoing and still disputes living there. In 2000 he settled SEC accounting fraud charges after his company reported profits during years it was actually losing money. He disgorged $8.28 million and admitted nothing. Strategy lost $12.54 billion in the first quarter and another $8.22 billion in the second. And this week he sat there and told a 25 year old with a few hundred dollars to buy Bitcoin and hold it for a decade. But he is not doing that himself. His company just SOLD $105 million of it. What do you think of Saylor?

Ricardo

20,623 Aufrufe • vor 22 Tagen

Making Sense Of Strategy What is happening with $MSTR? If you’ve been following me on X for any meaningful length of time, you will know that I have been attempting to calibrate people’s expectations of the stock's performance for the best part of 2025. Here I have synthesised all of my thoughts and distilled them into a single video. If you prefer YouTube, you can watch it here: If you prefer written format, continue reading. The first thing we need to understand is what Strategy is and why people invest in it. Strategy At the highest level, Strategy is leveraged Bitcoin. That’s it. Strategy leverages debt to acquire more Bitcoin. Therefore, the main reason you invest in Strategy is because you want to outperform Bitcoin. The only thing better than Bitcoin is more Bitcoin. The second thing we need to understand is mNAV. mNAV Generally speaking for a pure-play Bitcoin Treasury Company like Strategy, mNAV is a reflection of the market's expectation of future Bitcoin Yield. Bitcoin Yield comes with diminishing returns because each additional Bitcoin purchase contributes less to Bitcoin Per Share. Thus, the larger your Bitcoin stack, the harder it becomes to generate Bitcoin Yield and by extension the harder it becomes to outperform Bitcoin. This is why on a Bitcoin Standard, over a long enough time horizon, mNAV trends towards 1 since the maximum amount of Bitcoin you can own is 21M. With all this in mind, why is Strategy trading where it is and why is it trading at such a low mNAV? There are a few reasons. 1. Strategy Is A Different Company In 2025 Firstly, Strategy is a totally different company in 2025 to the one it was in 2020. For context, believe it or not, the company only introduced Bitcoin Yield and Bitcoin Per Share in the July 2024 Q2 Earnings Call and so it was only after that that they began optimising for those metrics. In my view, that is also when Michael Saylor truly started to understand the opportunity that was in front of him, which is why in October 2024 we saw Strategy announce the 21/21 plan which became the catalyst for the parabolic run we saw in November 2024 where $MSTR went on to briefly hit an all-time-high of around $550. Since people are comparing $MSTR this cycle to the $MSTR of last cycle when it briefly traded at an mNAV of over 8x, it is distorting their expectations. Again, Strategy is a totally different company today with a totally different set of dynamics. 2. New Industry Secondly, we need to recognise that the Bitcoin Treasury Company industry is entirely new which means that the market has been forced to learn and adapt in real-time. With Strategy being the first and by far the largest Bitcoin Treasury Company, it has gained a disproportionate amount of attention and as a result it has attracted a disproportionate amount of speculative capital along the way while everyone has been trying to figure out how to value it. Consequently, in my view, the move we saw in November 2024 was an over-correction to the upside — which by the way coincided with Bitcoin’s parabolic run following Donald Trump’s election win — and what we’re now seeing is an over-correction to the downside. 3. Bitcoin Yield Thirdly, as I mentioned at the beginning, Bitcoin Treasury Companies are currently valued based on how much Bitcoin Yield they are expected to generate in the future. At the time of recording, Strategy currently holds precisely 637,460 Bitcoin — that’s over 3% of the total Bitcoin supply — which means that it is much, much harder to generate meaningful Bitcoin Yield, which again is why we’re seeing the mNAV compress. However, there is a caveat here. There is another metric that Strategy have introduced which is Bitcoin $ Gain. Bitcoin $ Gain is defined as the $ value of newly acquired Bitcoin within any period. Strategy — and I don’t blame them — have been attempting to encourage the market to interpret Bitcoin $ Gain as “earnings” and to value the company based on how much earnings it is expected to generate in the future. For full disclosure, I personally dislike Bitcoin $ Gain as a valuation metric. I think framing it as “earnings” is misleading and disingenuous. I understand why it has been introduced because it speaks the language of Wall Street. However, traditional earnings are final. Bitcoin $ Gain is not because it is forever subject to the price of Bitcoin. Therefore, for Bitcoin $ Gain to be embraced by Wall Street, the market must collectively agree that Bitcoin is going up forever. I remain very sceptical of that happening — especially in the short-to-medium term. However, I am also not attached to my beliefs and so if Wall Street does decide to embrace Bitcoin $ Gain as its primary valuation metric, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 5-10x. If not, then $MSTR is likely undervalued by a factor of 1-2x. If you’re not content with the latter being the worst case scenario, then the stock probably isn’t for you. 4. Preferred Products Fourthly, the Strategy thesis right now revolves entirely around the success of its preferred products. Remember, Michael Saylor wants Strategy to become the Amazon of the fixed income market. Thus, we’re not talking about a small innovation here — we are talking about completely transforming global finance. This means that the process of generating awareness and educating the market that will ultimately drive demand for these products is going to take years — not months — which is why you need to have a long time-horizon. Presently, the market is completely discounting the success of Strategy’s preferred products. What it’s not factoring in however is that the capital markets are desperate for yield right now. Thus, when — not if — but when, they eventually wake up to Bitcoin, how do you think they’re going to get that yield? Who is going to be the entity that is offering Bitcoin-backed credit instruments at scale? The answer is obviously Strategy, but again, this is a 5-to-10 year and beyond story. So with all that said, if you’re reading this right now, what should you do? Valuing Strategy There are 3 steps you need to take: 1. Firstly, you need to define your time horizon. In other words, how long do you intend on holding the stock for? 2. Secondly, you need to estimate either — depending on your preferred metric — how much Bitcoin Yield or how much Bitcoin $ Gain you expect Strategy to generate during that period and then calculate how much you expect $MSTR to outperform Bitcoin based on those values. 3. Thirdly, ask yourself whether you’d be satisfied with the level of outperformance you have calculated? In other words, is the trade-off worth it? Or would you be better off investing in either spot Bitcoin, an alternative Bitcoin Treasury Company or a Bitcoin ETF. If you’re satisfied with the level of outperformance that you’ve calculated, then $MSTR it probably a good choice of investment for you. If you're not satisfied, then $MSTR is probably a bad choice of investment for you. I personally believe that $MSTR will outperform Bitcoin by a minimum factor of 1-2x over the next 5/10 years and potentially much more if Bitcoin $ Gain becomes the primary metric by which it is valued, but again, I remain sceptical of that happening. Regardless, the best is yet to come.

Chris Millas

36,835 Aufrufe • vor 11 Monaten

Strategy sold 3,588 BTC last week. That's 112x more than the 32 BTC they sold a few weeks ago (which freaked out the market). Here's what's happening and why they are doing this... 1. Last week = Strategy sold Last week, Strategy sold 3,588 BTC and used all of the proceeds ($216m) to fund dividend payments on their suite of preferred equities. Q2 dividend payments for STRF, STRK, STRD, and STRE... and June dividends for STRC. Notably, BTC price opened last week at $59.5k. Strategy sold 3,588 BTC over the course of the week, yet BTC price went up to $63.5k. 2. The bigger picture = Strategy is NET buying Strategy bought 85,296 BTC in Q2. Their combined selling for Q2 was 3,620 BTC (32 + 3,588). In other words, they bought 22.5x more BTC in Q2 than they sold. (For 2026 YTD numbers, Strategy has bought ~175k BTC and sold 3.6k BTC. That's a 48x ratio.) 3. The message in advance Weeks ago, Saylor explained what they are doing, in an interview with Michaël van de Poppe (see clip) "On occasion, we'll buy 20 Bitcoin & we'll sell 1 Bitcoin... Then the credit investors will give us enough to buy 20 more Bitcoin." Saylor further explained the strategic rationale of selling Bitcoin... "Our credit investors expect that we're going to support the credit dividend and pay it (and our asset is BTC)... 'will you sell some Bitcoin to pay us the money?' They expect me to say yes, because if I'm not going to pay the dividend, they're not going to buy the credit & the credit agency won't rate the credit." 4. What Strategy is doing Strategy is showing the market that they can and will sell BTC. They are doing this to gain access to more credit market capital... so that they can buy much more BTC. Saylor has recently asserted that it's important to "buy more Bitcoin than you sell." This is that in action. In Q2, they bought 85k BTC. They then used 3.5k BTC to fund the dividends on the Digital Credit that enabled them to buy 85k BTC. They bought 22.5 and sold 1. 5. What to expect next Saylor said they will "inoculate the market" by selling a little BTC. This is the second dose of inoculation. They will keep doing it until the market expects it and no longer reacts to it. They are not dumping their BTC treasury strategy for dollars. That is the click-bait headline for the uninformed. What they are telling you is that they plan to sell 1 BTC so they can buy 20 BTC. Over and over.

Jesse Myers

170,379 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

🚨 BITCOIN IS BEING MANIPULATED, AND I HAVE PROOF MICHAEL SAYLOR BEGINS SELLING $BTC Man who said "you do not sell your Bitcoin" is now selling Bitcoin Market reacts with immediate panic selling: $BTC < $62K Let that sink in Strategy holds 843,738 BTC - purchased for $63.87 billion at an average price of $75,700 per coin That's the largest corporate Bitcoin position in history And for years, Saylor repeated same thing over and over: Never sell. Never waver. Never flinch Then on an earnings call in May 2026, he said this: "We will probably sell some Bitcoin to fund a dividend - just to inoculate market" That single sentence broke a 5-year religion Here's what changed Strategy now carries $1.5B in annual preferred-stock dividend obligations Those dividends have to be paid in cash Bitcoin doesn't pay dividends So Saylor faces a choice: dilute shareholders with new equity, take on more debt or sell some BTC He chose door number three And there's more Company is sitting on $2.2 billion in unrealized tax benefits tied to high-cost-basis Bitcoin Selective sales could harvest those benefits - legally reducing their tax bill while offloading coins at the same time This isn't panic. This is optimization But here's what the market isn't pricing in Strategy owns approximately 4% of all Bitcoin that will ever exist If they become a consistent seller - even of small amounts - bid structure for BTC changes permanently Every fund, every ETF, every HODLer built their thesis on one assumption: Saylor is a buyer. Always That assumption just died The only time Strategy sold Bitcoin before this was December 2022 - 704 BTC for $11.8 million, purely for a tax loss This time the motivation is structural. Recurring. Tied to obligations that don't go away Watch the Coinbase Prime wallet Watch the 8-K filings The first real sale won't be announced - it'll be discovered I've been tracking institutional Bitcoin flows for years When the signal turns, I post it here first Turn on notifications. You'll want to be early on this one

Simba

65,952 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

🚨 BREAKING: MICHAEL SAYLOR BEGINS SELLING $BTC Man who said "you do not sell your Bitcoin" is now selling Bitcoin Market reacts with immediate panic selling: $BTC < $72K Let that sink in Strategy holds 843,738 BTC - purchased for $63.87 billion at an average price of $75,700 per coin That's the largest corporate Bitcoin position in history And for years, Saylor repeated same thing over and over: Never sell. Never waver. Never flinch Then on an earnings call in May 2026, he said this: "We will probably sell some Bitcoin to fund a dividend - just to inoculate market" That single sentence broke a 5-year religion Here's what changed Strategy now carries $1.5B in annual preferred-stock dividend obligations Those dividends have to be paid in cash Bitcoin doesn't pay dividends So Saylor faces a choice: dilute shareholders with new equity, take on more debt or sell some BTC He chose door number three And there's more Company is sitting on $2.2 billion in unrealized tax benefits tied to high-cost-basis Bitcoin Selective sales could harvest those benefits - legally reducing their tax bill while offloading coins at the same time This isn't panic. This is optimization But here's what the market isn't pricing in Strategy owns approximately 4% of all Bitcoin that will ever exist If they become a consistent seller - even of small amounts - bid structure for BTC changes permanently Every fund, every ETF, every HODLer built their thesis on one assumption: Saylor is a buyer. Always That assumption just died The only time Strategy sold Bitcoin before this was December 2022 - 704 BTC for $11.8 million, purely for a tax loss This time the motivation is structural. Recurring. Tied to obligations that don't go away Watch the Coinbase Prime wallet Watch the 8-K filings The first real sale won't be announced - it'll be discovered I've been tracking institutional Bitcoin flows for years When the signal turns, I post it here first Turn on notifications. You'll want to be early on this one

Aralez 🐕

320,789 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten