Superintelligence is Near! Three innovations that prove it! Three...

Uploaded: 2025-07-28T19:30:01.000Z
Duration: PT524.747S
Channel: David Shapiro ⏩

1:04

🧠David Friedberg explains the great hope of Artificial Superintelligence: Massive leverage on time to solve thousand-year problems "I don't think that humans are limited in our ability to solve problems." "I think we're limited in terms of time, and what digital intelligence gives us is leverage on time so that we can now tackle ever more complex tasks." "This idea of superintelligence is that it could give us immense leverage in solving that complex problem that we otherwise may be challenged to solve over decades, or hundreds of years, or think about one day solving a problem that would take humans thousands of years to solve." "So if I as a human said, 'I would like to harness fusion power similar to what the sun uses to make energy, and I wanna do that on Earth,' today, we're in, call it year 40 or 50 of a research cycle of humans trying to solve that particularly complex problem." "It's a scientific problem, it's a discovery problem, it's an engineering problem." "Functionally, leveraging to complexity is where this becomes super compelling for humans." "And it's why I think we can and should be highly optimistic about living very long lives, and traveling anywhere we want, and having abundance in food, and having abundance in resources, and having abundance in recouping our time to do the things we want to do instead of the things that we have to do today."

The All-In Podcast

53,175 views • 11 months ago

1:12

Rogin: It looks very likely that we're about to restart bombing of Iran. And there are a lot of reports out there that this is about to happen. And what that means is that all of the problems, not just with the US economy, with the economy of every country in the world, are about to get worse. And it means that the Iran war is going to go much longer than otherwise anticipated. And that is a disaster not just for Americans, but for all people. And then if you think about the effects on energy and then manufacturing, and then rates will continue to go up, and then inflation, it's a it's a calamity for the world economy with no strategy whatsoever.

Acyn

73,174 views • 26 days ago

1:00

"What is P vs NP and how does it relate to human knowledge?" Avi Wigderson (Turing Award & Abel Prize winner): "In a very basic way, all the problems we want to solve are really NP problems. A subset of it is the problems we can solve. So the question of P versus NP is whether we can solve all the problems we want to solve, whether we can know everything we want to know. This is basically about the limits of our knowledge. You can think there is no limit to what we may want to know but I claim that essentially in any human endeavor, what people are searching for have the property that when a solution is found, it is easily recognized. NP are all problems that we can honestly say we really want to solve and P are those that we can solve. Whether they are equal is just the very fact that a solution can be easily recognized would imply that it can be efficiently found. That means that we can know everything we ever want to know, it's a fundamental question about human knowledge."

Ryan Peterman

19,910 views • 11 days ago

2:19

AGI might be the culmination of human purpose. Lomez: "I've been trying to talk myself out of the inevitability of AGI for a while. It's not even my preference, but that doesn't matter." "There's a teleology of humanness that almost is designed to produce AGI. We're fulfilling almost some kind of Calvinist, religious project." "This is the culmination of human intelligence and ingenuity. I just don't see any way around that." "There's something beautiful about it. It fits. There's some harmony in the idea that humans are designed to do this... to produce an intelligence greater than itself."

MTS

69,899 views • 1 month ago

0:49

“I am going to probably use $300M of Anthropic this year at Salesforce.” - Marc Benioff “ These coding agents are awesome. Anthropic is awesome. Coding, everything's going to be cheaper to make, it's more efficient. I can do things that I just could not do before. I can go faster than ever before. I can implement my software and sell it at the same time. I've never been able to do that before. Today, I have humans, agents, and headless platforms all interoperating, never before. So the opportunity for my own company and the efficiency that I have in my own company, in service and support, in distribution and marketing, across the board, is unprecedented. What I can do for our customers, unprecedented. And, to that point, my gosh, have you seen Anthropic? It is a rocket ship that will not stop.”

The All-In Podcast

228,935 views • 1 month ago

1:32

"You can either produce excellence or you can avoid criticism. But you cannot do both of those. The reason that you don't have certain excellence that you want is because you are afraid of getting criticized. You are afraid of the judgment that comes with it. You are afraid of standing out. You are afraid of being alone. You are afraid of people looking at you. You are worried about what people think of you. There are 2 categories of things in this world: 1) Things that are up to you 2) Things that are not up to you Which category does your reputation sit in? Your reputation is not up to you. I'm the one who associates your reputation with something, not you. You just do things. What's up to you? How you act. Your decisions. Your actions. That is up to you. Your reputation is not up to you. Here's how I know that: You all have a reputation about me and it's not in my control. I get to say and do whatever I say and do up here. I am in control of saying it. I am in control of doing it. The moment words leave my lips, who has control over what is done with those words? You! You are in control of what you think of me. And there's no way everybody in this room is going to think the exact same thing about me. No way. When it comes to exceptional, what we've got to understand is you can spend your whole life trying to avoid criticism and earn reputation, and it still won't be in your control. We can waste a lot of time missing out on excellence we could have been producing if we were just simply LESS trying to engineer what we wanted other people to think about us."

Brian Kight

308,788 views • 1 year ago

0:42

Mike to Emily: “There are things about you that reminded me of Chester since the beginning. Just certain things you do, and [..] hype everybody up from the moment you show up - Chester had that kind of energy, you have that kind of energy. Not everybody can do that.” MY HEART😭

a.🍍| fan account

19,259 views • 1 year ago

2:15

I asked Luke Kornet about his memories from stretches where he was a DNP for many games in a row, and what his message is to the young guys who find themselves in that position now: “It's just a lot of peace to come to life of accepting the position that you're in and then just doing the best with that, versus trying to fight it and want to be in a different one.” “You can spend a lot of time worrying about things that you can't really control. But when you just take the opportunity that you have and do the best with that, you can have days like today where a lot of guys came in and were able to contribute. You can have peace about knowing that you did your job well, just as you did the day before, the day after. It might just look a different way every time. I feel like that's what I've been taught through my life. That's the only thing attitude that you can have that you can actually do something with – versus trying to control things that are outside of what you can control.”

Noa Dalzell 🏀

48,747 views • 1 year ago

0:25

🎻: before you were always the one asking me questions, right— so i just wanted to say that 🎻: i don’t know if you like the ‘us’ that is in the same group, or just simply ‘us’ 🎻: yes— what i can promise you is that i will definitely come see you and he will definitely come see you 🎻: even though the both of us cannot see you at the same time, but the both of us will continue/always be together, and will always let you be able to see

햇빛

790,789 views • 4 months ago

3:11

.David Deutsch: "What's currently called AI and AGI are not only different from each other, they are very close to being the exact opposites of each other. The reason is that an AI, current AI is like an AI that diagnoses diseases or an AI that plays chess or an AI that controls a huge factory. Those things have objective functions, that is they have a function that they are designed to maximize and that is why they are used in those particular applications. Or in military terms, you could say the objective is to hit the target. You might say the objective is to hit the target unless some thing specified, but it's a specified thing comes up in which case don't hit the target and so on. This is, as I said, almost the opposite of what humans do when humans think. For a start, the AI has to be obedient, that is it has to actually do the things it is programmed to do, whereas a human is fundamentally disobedient, especially when being creative. When a human plays chess, they are performing a completely different kind of computation. They don't do the same things, they don't investigate the same possibilities that the artificial chess playing machine does, because the artificial one is capable of looking at billions and billions of possibilities, whereas the human can only look at hundreds or something. They are doing something completely different. Another difference is that the human can explain, can write a book later, having become world champion, can write a book saying how I did it, as the computer program that beats the world champion can write no such book, because it has no idea how it did it. It was just following a program. I was doing this and that and that and none of that is illuminating. Also, third thing, the chess player can decide I don't want to play chess anymore, from now on I will play Go or from now on I will play tennis. If commanded to play chess, the functionality will deteriorate completely. Those things are different. What we want in an AGI is that it behaves in a way that cannot be specified in advance, because if you specified it, you would already have the answer. The AGI program has to give unexpected answers, answers to questions we didn't even know how to ask."

Deutsch Explains

72,455 views • 1 year ago

1:55

🧵10/34 The Bright Side --- But now let’s look at the bright side of it for a moment. If we could figure out how to grow a creature that can solve every problem better than us, then that could be the last problem we will ever have to work on. Assuming this creature is a slave working for us, this is like commanding Aladdin’s Genie with infinite wishes. Think of all the potential, all the human suffering it can eliminate! Let’s take cancer as an example. A terrible killer disease and a problem we haven’t been able to solve well yet, after trying for centuries. The AGI is better at overcoming obstacles and solving problems. It can calculate a plan that will lead to the perfect therapy, help us execute it and save millions of lives Consider global warming. Such a complex problem, requires solving global coordination, geopolitical struggles and monumental technical issues. The AGI is far better at overcoming obstacles and solving problems, so it could, for example, generate a plan that will lead into the invention of a machine that captures carbon out of the atmosphere and stores it efficiently and cheaply. And we could keep going like that until we build our literal paradise on earth.

lethalintelligence.ai

483,058 views • 1 year ago

7:01

The most interesting part for me is where Andrej Karpathy describes why LLMs aren't able to learn like humans. As you would expect, he comes up with a wonderfully evocative phrase to describe RL: “sucking supervision bits through a straw.” A single end reward gets broadcast across every token in a successful trajectory, upweighting even wrong or irrelevant turns that lead to the right answer. > “Humans don't use reinforcement learning, as I've said before. I think they do something different. Reinforcement learning is a lot worse than the average person thinks. Reinforcement learning is terrible. It just so happens that everything that we had before is much worse.” So what do humans do instead? > “The book I’m reading is a set of prompts for me to do synthetic data generation. It's by manipulating that information that you actually gain that knowledge. We have no equivalent of that with LLMs; they don't really do that.” > “I'd love to see during pretraining some kind of a stage where the model thinks through the material and tries to reconcile it with what it already knows. There's no equivalent of any of this. This is all research.” Why can’t we just add this training to LLMs today? > “There are very subtle, hard to understand reasons why it's not trivial. If I just give synthetic generation of the model thinking about a book, you look at it and you're like, 'This looks great. Why can't I train on it?' You could try, but the model will actually get much worse if you continue trying.” > “Say we have a chapter of a book and I ask an LLM to think about it. It will give you something that looks very reasonable. But if I ask it 10 times, you'll notice that all of them are the same.” > “You're not getting the richness and the diversity and the entropy from these models as you would get from humans. How do you get synthetic data generation to work despite the collapse and while maintaining the entropy? It is a research problem.” How do humans get around model collapse? > “These analogies are surprisingly good. Humans collapse during the course of their lives. Children haven't overfit yet. They will say stuff that will shock you. Because they're not yet collapsed. But we [adults] are collapsed. We end up revisiting the same thoughts, we end up saying more and more of the same stuff, the learning rates go down, the collapse continues to get worse, and then everything deteriorates.” In fact, there’s an interesting paper arguing that dreaming evolved to assist generalization, and resist overfitting to daily learning - look up The Overfitted Brain by Erik Hoel. I asked Karpathy: Isn’t it interesting that humans learn best at a part of their lives (childhood) whose actual details they completely forget, adults still learn really well but have terrible memory about the particulars of the things they read or watch, and LLMs can memorize arbitrary details about text that no human could but are currently pretty bad at generalization? > “[Fallible human memory] is a feature, not a bug, because it forces you to only learn the generalizable components. LLMs are distracted by all the memory that they have of the pre-trained documents. That's why when I talk about the cognitive core, I actually want to remove the memory. I'd love to have them have less memory so that they have to look things up and they only maintain the algorithms for thought, and the idea of an experiment, and all this cognitive glue for acting.”

Dwarkesh Patel

1,050,107 views • 8 months ago

3:09

Physicist Avi Loeb just told me that futuristic technology could enable humanity to travel “faster than the speed of light.” But we would have to move beyond the three dimensions we are familiar with. And he speculated that advanced alien civilizations could already have access to these dimensions. You need to hear his fascinating theory: “Think about living on the surface of a balloon.” “That is two dimensional.” “You might not be aware that there is a third dimension because you are just living on the surface of that balloon.” “If there is another being that is capable of taking advantage of the third dimension, then that being will cross the distance between two points on the surface of the balloon faster than you can imagine.” “Because the travel between the two points can go through the third dimension that connects the two points—not necessarily on the curved surface of the balloon.” “So there are, in principle, possibilities of navigating in more than the dimensions that we are familiar with.” “We are familiar with three spatial dimensions plus time.” “If there are more than three and there is a technological way of taking advantage of those … objects will appear and disappear in ways that we cannot understand.” “Einstein’s theory of relativity states that no material object can move faster than light.” “However, if there are extra dimensions, you might actually travel faster than light in the three dimensions, even though you’re traveling less than the speed of light in the extra dimensions.”

Jan Jekielek

31,984 views • 3 months ago

5:01

🛑 Burkina Faso 🇧🇫 - Captain with school boys and girls! The young Captain was having a conversation with the pupils, and here is what he saying, “I was telling you a while ago, in school they were telling us that we couldn’t do it here. They lied to us. We grow wheat here, and it works well, and we will develop it. Some people have started, this year, I was able to see people who did it, as part of the presidential initiative, and I was told that in the past, some were able to do it and they produced it well. Currently, we are sowing wheat in some farmlands as part do the presidential initiative. What you eat must be produced here. So, this is why I say that we will teach you many things, and we will review the curricula they teach you. For those who drink coffee, they told us that your coffee, chocolate, it is only in the countries with abundant rainfalls, that here is only savanna, desert, it does not rain, we cannot farm. Again, they lied to us. It’s not true! Coffee grows well here, cocoa grows well too. There are people here who have the farms here, even in Ouagadougou here, there are people who have cocoa trees in their yards. This means that, chocolate that children envy those from well to do familes can be manufactured here in Burkina and all the children can eat chocolate in Burkina. We found out it is possible. As for milk, why do we have to import it? We can do it. I just want to tell you that there are many things that they never told us the truth about. You guys are lucky, we are now teaching you, and we promise you that we will do all we can so that you can eat your fill. As we say, you will eat well in the morning before you go to school, you will go to school for free, you will eat lunch, you will have fun, and in the afternoon, when you return home, you will have fun in the neighborhood, then in the evening, you will learn and review your homework and sleep. This is the dream we have. As long as the children in Burkina are not in these conditions, our fight will not stop. Ok? (Claps). So, we know these are your aspirations and it is right and legal. Any parent is fighting for this. Even those who do not have children fight in the hope of having children and to take care of them, so that they can live in better conditions, and be better than them. This is the fight of everyone, this is the fight of every generation. We are lucky God gave us everything. Do you know that everywhere in Burkina we can farm? Everywhere! In the Sahel where they tell you it is the desert, it is only sand, we can farm. As for us, we have been lied to so much, it is the brainwashing of the colonizer. He did that so that we may not think 💭. But we finally found out that everything was a lie ( damn lie, emphasis is mine). If God left many lakes in that desert, He knows why. We can farm everything in Burkina, we can do everything, the land is fertile. And there are so many natural things in Burkina that we never planted but they were here, isn’t it ? Have you ever learned how to plant a shea tree in Burkina? You were born and found them already here right? It is there in the wild in nature. You know it is a gift from God. There are many things in the shea fruit. You have the shea butter, that is oil; do you know that there is chocolate in it? There are seven derivatives in the shea fruit. You also have the Parkia biglobosa (also known as the African locust bean) which is a natural fruit. We have many things, it is not only the minerals in the soil. Even with the soil, we were told that it’s ferralitic soil, that it is not fertile, everything is a lie. You see that today there is so much gold in Burkina. But it is just poorly managed. Our mission is to well manage these resources, and to take good care of you, so that you can be in your basic rights, to lead a good life, to go to school, and that we may protect you. And also that you may fulfill your duties, because your duties are very important, aren’t they?…

Sy Marcus Herve Traore

94,967 views • 2 years ago

2:00

I just want to apologize to most of all ChanceMorris and Mizkif but I also want to apologize to the community that I let down in this time of peril. All I can say is that I will learn from my mistakes in the future and I hope that the community can forgive me one day.

RUSSEL

388,361 views • 2 years ago

1:20

At AIPCon 10, Palantir CEO Alex Karp shares our secret to sales: “We’re hoping that you’ll go to a large language model company and learn that they don’t care about you at all.” “What you will find is there are a myriad of problems that these very important models solve, and there are even bigger problems that they create.” “We’re in the business of giving you the ability to solve those problems for yourself and own the means of production.”

Palantir

59,030,543 views • 12 days ago

4:16

I asked Garry Tan how to use meta prompting to get better at AI: "My partners at YC Jared Friedman and Pete Koomen showed me how to do this. You can take almost anything that you do all the time and just drop it into a context window. And then say, “Here’s a bunch of inputs and outputs." And maybe you also add a bunch of notes. And then you tell it, “Write me a prompt that can act as an agent that takes this input and makes this output over here.” You can do this for almost any type of knowledge work. And you can even introspect. "What are things you notice that I did to convert this from the input to the output?”. And then you can just start using the prompt. Initially, it’s going to suck. Because it’s just not that smart yet. But what’s funny is now, I also use it to Iterate my writing. You can be very direct, "I would never say that", "Don’t say it like this", or "Oh, you used the long word there, use the short word". Just speak to it conversationally. And then when you're happy with the output, you can use that new output to make a new prompt. "Based on this conversation, give me a better initial prompt that incorporates all the things we talked about." And you can do this with literally everything. And in theory, there’s so much it applies to that people do day-to-day. You could use it for tweets. You could use it for editing podcasts. You can use it for pretty much everything. I have a folder of prompts that I use all the time. My YouTube prompt is on v27 or something. I'll go through this process with all the different max models. I'll use GPT 5.2 Pro. I’ll use Grok. I'll use Claude. Then, I’ll take all the outputs from all the models and put them into Claude and say "Here’s my prompt, here’s the output from four LLMs, including yourself. Rate each response and tell me what the pros and cons of each approach are." And I usually say "give it to me in numbered form". And then you can agree with one, disagree with two, tell it three is this or that. And then after that, you say given all of this, synthesize it."

The Peel

51,632 views • 3 months ago

0:45

[UAP], "were frying the equipment on the aircraft. Some of our most state-of-the-art technology." ~Luna (Note: Transcript is much longer than video clip below) 🤔 Luna: There Are No "Holy Shit" Videos That I've Seen That The Public Has Not 🤔 The 46 videos we requested, "have all now been declassified." ~Rep. Anna Paulina Luna "ALL 46 [videos] have not been released." ~Jeremy Kenyon Lockyer Corbell to Me (I'd like to get that clarified from Rep. Luna) "If they would release the things that I've seen, you would stay up at...you'd be up at night worrying about, or thinking about this stuff." ~Rep. Tim Burchett Press Office to Rob Finnerty And Burchett added that we'd, "come unglued." We also had this... "It was one of those moments where everyone in the room gasped. Everyone. Even the staffers who are like, the most skeptical people in the room just gasped when they saw that video. Because there's not a single aerial thing that can do something like that, that can pull that off." ~Rep. Eric Burlison (Has that video been released?) Compare that to what Luna said... Douthat: "Is there anything else out there (video-wise) that is like, a holy-shit moment?" Luna: "As far as a lot of the meat and potatoes that we've been able to see and gotten briefings on, it's, for the most part, been put out." (So nothing to keep us up at night or to make us come unglued, or...make us gasp. I appreciate her being level headed with that and not hyping it. So, what are Burlison and Burchett talking about? I have learned to see things for myself first before getting too excited about what others say about x, y and z. Some of those videos in the two releases ARE very interesting but nothing has kept me up at night or made me gasp. Do videos like that even exist? It's not the first time I've asked that question.) ~Extended Transcript from Segment~ Douthat: "You have had access, before these videos were released. In what context have you seen these videos before they were released? Luna: "So I went into the SCIF and...I went and actually observed and saw all the videos before they were released to go through, numerically, to make sure that those were the ones that correlated to the ones that we had actually put out in the request. So those have all now been declassified." Douthat: "All of the ones?" Luna: "Yeah, in the list." (Remember: Regarding the list of 46, Corbell told me that, ""ALL 46 [videos] have not been released.") Douthat: "But how did you get the list of videos in the request?" Luna: "We had a group that came forward, it was bipartisan, former whistleblowers from the intelligence community that had access to... I would compare it to something like YouTube that exists within the intelligence community. And they came up with the files, and they said you need to get access to these files and have them released. And so, before the order came out from the President, we had come up with this list. We had been getting push back, and then after [Trump] gave the green light for it, it was declassified, and those are now up and able to be [viewed] at the Department if War." Douthat: "And what do you think they show?" Luna: "Well, there's some interesting stuff. I think that they show UAPs. There has been one of the videos that has since been debunked to be actually the infrared that was picking up aircraft that was farther in distance, but the optics are kind of an illusion in that sense. So there's been one that's been debunked. But there are ones that they cannot explain. They've tried to cross-reference it with other data, and the way that these things are maneuvering are pretty wild. And so, again, I think that they show UAPs in some instances." Douthat: "Right. And you think that one reason to take this stuff seriously is that they correlate with direct-pilot testimony of the kind that you've heard, right. So it's not like, I'm just... Imagine the completely skeptical listener or viewer, of which there are reasonably many, who says, 'Okay, you have some number of videos, we don't know what they are, but if one of them turns out to be sort of some prosaic explanation, we can assume a lot of them will be.' So what else makes you think..." Luna: "In the specific incident of Eglin Air Force Base, which is where we had the pilot testimony and we were able to see some images, these things were frying the equipment on the aircraft. Some of our most state-of-the-art technology is getting completely fried." Douthat: "And this is something that pilots told you had happened to them? Luna: "Yes, yep. Now, the other issue is, sometimes pilots won't report because they don't want to be taken off flight status. So there's removing the stigma of if you're supposed to have safe flying. You want to also track national security issues. You have to be able to document this stuff. But when you have this type of stuff impacting military training, impacting flight operations, impacting our technology, it's a problem. "We should follow up, and then say, 'Okay, well, is this technology that, potentially, could be advanced tech from adversary nations? I don't, necessarily, think that's the case, because if that was true, we wouldn't be number one, currently. Some of this stuff that we're seeing is pretty wild. You saw the New York Times report (2017 and the Tic Tac ~Joe), and just how it's defying physics, if you will. But then the other aspect of, what can we as Congress do next? We can declassify. I don't think, you know, this aspect of people saying it's not enough..." Douthat: "Are there things that you've seen in a SCIF, or not in a SCIF, that are wilder than this (the videos that have already been released)? That would like, make the front page of the New York Times as, you know, no one can be skeptical anymore?" Luna: "No, I think the aspect of, do I have, you know, a location where there's a little green man on a slab in a fridge (laughs). I don't think I'm gonna get that (laughs)." Douthat: "Wait, we're gonna get to that. Just stick with the videos. Is there anything else out there that is like, a holy-shit moment?" Luna: "Well, I think that there's probably going to be some more release of other videos as well, other testimony. They're still combing. But, as far as a lot of the meat and potatoes that we've been able to see and gotten briefings on, it's, for the most part, been put out."

Joe Murgia

14,119 views • 9 days ago

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Mike to Emily: “There are things about you that reminded me of Chester since the beginning. Just certain things you do, and [..] hype everybody up from the moment you show up - Chester had that kind of energy, you have that kind of energy. Not everybody can do that.” MY HEART😭

I just want to apologize to most of all ChanceMorris and Mizkif but I also want to apologize to the community that I let down in this time of peril. All I can say is that I will learn from my mistakes in the future and I hope that the community can forgive me one day.