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. Tarek Mansour explains why Kalshi is launching the first regulated perps in the US - and why the offshore market already proved it would work "The offshore market is very good validation for that. You look at the size of the offshore market and how liquid it's been."... show more

MR SHIFT 🦁

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28,935 views • 4 months ago •via X (Twitter)

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🚨 KALSHI JUST CHANGED COMMODITIES FOREVER. The first US Gold & Silver PERPS are officially live. This changes commodity markets forever. → Trade Gold & Silver 24/7 → Hold positions without expiry → All inside a regulated US framework Crypto market structure is officially coming for TradFi. And this is only the beginning.

🚨 KALSHI JUST CHANGED COMMODITIES FOREVER. The first US Gold & Silver PERPS are officially live. This changes commodity markets forever. → Trade Gold & Silver 24/7 → Hold positions without expiry → All inside a regulated US framework Crypto market structure is officially coming for TradFi. And this is only the beginning.

DANNY

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E174: Tarek Mansour - Launching the First Regulated Perps In The U.S and building the next generation of financial markets Tarek Mansour is the co-founder and CEO of Kalshi, the first regulated prediction market exchange in the US, valued at $22 Billion. He grew up in Lebanon with a single mom, studied at MIT, worked at Citadel, and spent 6 years years building a company most people ignored before it finally took off. We talk about what it actually takes to not give up, why markets are better at finding truth than experts, why Kalshi is launching the first regulated Perps in the US, and how his team is building what he calls the next generation of financial markets. Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 1:54 Urgency 3:11 Anime 4:53 Who is Tarek? 7:02 Mathematics & Certainty 9:10 Tarek's chip on the shoulder 13:33 Partnerships: Trezor Bitwise 15:19 Resilience 16:31 Entrepreneurship is Therapy 18:23 The startup emotional rollercoaster 22:16 Showing up for 2000 days with no results 24:45 First time Founder advantage 26:40 When Kalshi almost made it, but did not 29:54 Partnerships: KAST 31:19 Focus Inputs, Not Results 33:16 The Kalshi beginnings story 36:00 The True Innovation Of Prediction Markets 38:28 How Prediction Markets Revolutionize The Media 41:37 Prediction Markets and Hedging explained simply 44:55 Leverage In Prediction Markets 47:16 Partnerships: Jupiter Ethena 48:00 Insider Trading 51:19 Insider Trading Rules enforcement: who is responsible? 55:26 How Kalshi spots Suspicious Behavior 56:59 Tarek's Honest View On Crypto 59:41 Launching the first Regulated Perps In The U.S 1:00:30 What Does Regulated Perps Mean? 1:02:22 Was Kalshi perps launch inspired by Hyperliquid? 1:03:41 Competition 1:05:58 Kalshi Endgame 1:07:06 What is Kalshi doing with the billions of $ they raised 1:08:31 Happiness and engagement 1:13:08 One Thing Tarek Should Let Go Of 1:14:18 Closing Thoughts

E174: Tarek Mansour - Launching the First Regulated Perps In The U.S and building the next generation of financial markets Tarek Mansour is the co-founder and CEO of Kalshi, the first regulated prediction market exchange in the US, valued at $22 Billion. He grew up in Lebanon with a single mom, studied at MIT, worked at Citadel, and spent 6 years years building a company most people ignored before it finally took off. We talk about what it actually takes to not give up, why markets are better at finding truth than experts, why Kalshi is launching the first regulated Perps in the US, and how his team is building what he calls the next generation of financial markets. Timestamps: 0:00 Intro 1:54 Urgency 3:11 Anime 4:53 Who is Tarek? 7:02 Mathematics & Certainty 9:10 Tarek's chip on the shoulder 13:33 Partnerships: Trezor Bitwise 15:19 Resilience 16:31 Entrepreneurship is Therapy 18:23 The startup emotional rollercoaster 22:16 Showing up for 2000 days with no results 24:45 First time Founder advantage 26:40 When Kalshi almost made it, but did not 29:54 Partnerships: KAST 31:19 Focus Inputs, Not Results 33:16 The Kalshi beginnings story 36:00 The True Innovation Of Prediction Markets 38:28 How Prediction Markets Revolutionize The Media 41:37 Prediction Markets and Hedging explained simply 44:55 Leverage In Prediction Markets 47:16 Partnerships: Jupiter Ethena 48:00 Insider Trading 51:19 Insider Trading Rules enforcement: who is responsible? 55:26 How Kalshi spots Suspicious Behavior 56:59 Tarek's Honest View On Crypto 59:41 Launching the first Regulated Perps In The U.S 1:00:30 What Does Regulated Perps Mean? 1:02:22 Was Kalshi perps launch inspired by Hyperliquid? 1:03:41 Competition 1:05:58 Kalshi Endgame 1:07:06 What is Kalshi doing with the billions of $ they raised 1:08:31 Happiness and engagement 1:13:08 One Thing Tarek Should Let Go Of 1:14:18 Closing Thoughts

MR SHIFT 🦁

606,827 views • 3 months ago

.Tarek Mansour on Kalshi: “The thing that was unique about us is we never pivoted. It was always Kalshi. We were dragged by the idea. I wasn't the type that wanted to be an entrepreneur. I think if you re-roll the dice multiple times, I'd probably just be a trader or risk manager. I would not be an entrepreneur. But the idea was so glaring in front of us that we just had to do it.” Successful founders will often tell you that the idea pulled them, not the other way around. Kalshi walked through the desert for six years. Most teams reset the idea once the desert gets long enough. They never did, because they were dragged by the idea, not short-term outcomes. When they persevered and became the first regulated prediction market, they compounded to ~95% US market share. The patience to do things right became an advantage, not a constraint. Keep the long game in mind when you feel like you're in the desert.

.Tarek Mansour on Kalshi: “The thing that was unique about us is we never pivoted. It was always Kalshi. We were dragged by the idea. I wasn't the type that wanted to be an entrepreneur. I think if you re-roll the dice multiple times, I'd probably just be a trader or risk manager. I would not be an entrepreneur. But the idea was so glaring in front of us that we just had to do it.” Successful founders will often tell you that the idea pulled them, not the other way around. Kalshi walked through the desert for six years. Most teams reset the idea once the desert gets long enough. They never did, because they were dragged by the idea, not short-term outcomes. When they persevered and became the first regulated prediction market, they compounded to ~95% US market share. The patience to do things right became an advantage, not a constraint. Keep the long game in mind when you feel like you're in the desert.

Alfred Lin

98,412 views • 2 months ago

Bloomberg's James Seyffart on why ETF flows are a mirror, not a signal "They're just a piece of the pie. Honestly, they reflect what's going on in the broader market more than anything. There was a time where you got an ETF on an underlying asset and that actually moved the market, people thought it was going to bring more demand, whatnot. There's some truth to that." "But for the most part it's just reflecting what's going on in the market. We had some puking in June when the whole market was puking, which was the first time the ETFs really puked up some Bitcoin. It's really just a reflection of what's going on." "And some underlying heartbeat of demand, I think, is true from advisors."

Bloomberg's James Seyffart on why ETF flows are a mirror, not a signal "They're just a piece of the pie. Honestly, they reflect what's going on in the broader market more than anything. There was a time where you got an ETF on an underlying asset and that actually moved the market, people thought it was going to bring more demand, whatnot. There's some truth to that." "But for the most part it's just reflecting what's going on in the market. We had some puking in June when the whole market was puking, which was the first time the ETFs really puked up some Bitcoin. It's really just a reflection of what's going on." "And some underlying heartbeat of demand, I think, is true from advisors."

The Wolf Of All Streets

30,096 views • 19 days ago

US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick tells the World Economic Forum to their faces that their policies has destroyed The West “Globalization has failed the West and the United States of America. It's a failed policy. It is what the WEF has stood for, which is export offshore, far shore, find the cheapest labor in the world, and the world is a better place for it. The fact is, it has left America behind. It has left the American workers behind and what we are here to say is that America First is a different model, one that we encourage other countries to consider, which is that our workers come first We can have policies that impact our workers. Sovereignty is your borders. You're entitled to have borders. - You shouldn't offshore your medicine - You shouldn't offshore your semiconductors - You shouldn't offshore your entire industrial base and have it be hollowed out beneath you - You should not be dependent for that which is fundamental to your sovereignty — So that is a different way of thinking. It is completely different than the WEF”

US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick tells the World Economic Forum to their faces that their policies has destroyed The West “Globalization has failed the West and the United States of America. It's a failed policy. It is what the WEF has stood for, which is export offshore, far shore, find the cheapest labor in the world, and the world is a better place for it. The fact is, it has left America behind. It has left the American workers behind and what we are here to say is that America First is a different model, one that we encourage other countries to consider, which is that our workers come first We can have policies that impact our workers. Sovereignty is your borders. You're entitled to have borders. - You shouldn't offshore your medicine - You shouldn't offshore your semiconductors - You shouldn't offshore your entire industrial base and have it be hollowed out beneath you - You should not be dependent for that which is fundamental to your sovereignty — So that is a different way of thinking. It is completely different than the WEF”

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TJR explains why Solana memecoin traders would dominate futures trading “Not only is your risk tolerance way higher than it already needs to be to beat the futures market but on top of that, you guys have already beat the psychological game that is so difficult to overcome when it comes to trading” “If they took their talents over to the futures market, it would be consistent gains that are no longer dependent on these mini market cap fluctuations” “They would be able to make way more money because they've already beat the psychological game” “I think they could transform into profitable futures traders within like a three to four month span, if not even less”

TJR explains why Solana memecoin traders would dominate futures trading “Not only is your risk tolerance way higher than it already needs to be to beat the futures market but on top of that, you guys have already beat the psychological game that is so difficult to overcome when it comes to trading” “If they took their talents over to the futures market, it would be consistent gains that are no longer dependent on these mini market cap fluctuations” “They would be able to make way more money because they've already beat the psychological game” “I think they could transform into profitable futures traders within like a three to four month span, if not even less”

Jack

432,215 views • 2 months ago

Here is, spelled right out: In 1973, they created a #gold futures market with the "expectation that large volume futures dealing would create a highly volatile market" and "diminish the initial demand for physical holding and most likely negate long-term hoarding by US citizens." Full report:

Here is, spelled right out: In 1973, they created a #gold futures market with the "expectation that large volume futures dealing would create a highly volatile market" and "diminish the initial demand for physical holding and most likely negate long-term hoarding by US citizens." Full report:

Peak Financial Investing

20,487 views • 7 months ago

"If you look at job growth between January and September ... for the past 15 years, it's only been worse once, and that was during the pandemic ... It is the worst first nine months for the labor market in 15 years."

"If you look at job growth between January and September ... for the past 15 years, it's only been worse once, and that was during the pandemic ... It is the worst first nine months for the labor market in 15 years."

Justin Wolfers

137,335 views • 10 months ago

Decoding Futures Market Jargon: Contango vs. Backwardation Prompt: Act as a market analysis assistant. Given the spot price of WTI Crude Oil is $80/barrel and the 6-month futures contract is trading at $85/barrel, identify whether the market is in contango or backwardation. Explain the defining characteristic based on the provided prices and list three potential reasons why this condition might be occurring in the oil market.

Decoding Futures Market Jargon: Contango vs. Backwardation Prompt: Act as a market analysis assistant. Given the spot price of WTI Crude Oil is $80/barrel and the 6-month futures contract is trading at $85/barrel, identify whether the market is in contango or backwardation. Explain the defining characteristic based on the provided prices and list three potential reasons why this condition might be occurring in the oil market.

Tunc Satiroglu

14,080 views • 1 year ago

"China will lose the US market…" "We don't care! China has been here for 5,000 years, most of the time there was no US, and we survived." "If the US wants to go in that direction of completely shutting itself out of the China market. Be my guest!" "The world is big enough that the US is not the totality of the world’s market." Well said👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻

"China will lose the US market…" "We don't care! China has been here for 5,000 years, most of the time there was no US, and we survived." "If the US wants to go in that direction of completely shutting itself out of the China market. Be my guest!" "The world is big enough that the US is not the totality of the world’s market." Well said👍🏻👍🏻👍🏻

Li Zexin 李泽欣

6,765,809 views • 1 year ago

.Ben Shapiro on why he thinks AOC is suddenly against betting markets: “Name another aspect of consumption that AOC is dramatically against…like prostitution, drugs, alcohol - name a thing that AOC believes there should not be a market for. The only thing she believes there should not be a market for is a prediction market, and the only reason she's saying that is because, of course, Don Jr. is associated with prediction markets. I think it's that simple.”

.Ben Shapiro on why he thinks AOC is suddenly against betting markets: “Name another aspect of consumption that AOC is dramatically against…like prostitution, drugs, alcohol - name a thing that AOC believes there should not be a market for. The only thing she believes there should not be a market for is a prediction market, and the only reason she's saying that is because, of course, Don Jr. is associated with prediction markets. I think it's that simple.”

Daily Wire

83,678 views • 6 months ago

While Governor Soludo was holding a meeting with a representative of Onitsha Main Market Leadership in Awka, the traders were protesting on the streets chanting “Soludo, no Market on Monday!” As I said, Soludo is tone-deaf and disconnected from reality. Peter Obi would have gone to the scene, the market, sat with the (real) traders and dialogued with them. As a leader, you have to feel the pulse of the people and first engage in a dialogue, especially when the cause of trouble is ideological, not coercion. The traders aren’t criminals. Why engage, first, with force?✍️

While Governor Soludo was holding a meeting with a representative of Onitsha Main Market Leadership in Awka, the traders were protesting on the streets chanting “Soludo, no Market on Monday!” As I said, Soludo is tone-deaf and disconnected from reality. Peter Obi would have gone to the scene, the market, sat with the (real) traders and dialogued with them. As a leader, you have to feel the pulse of the people and first engage in a dialogue, especially when the cause of trouble is ideological, not coercion. The traders aren’t criminals. Why engage, first, with force?✍️

Obiasogu David

22,905 views • 8 months ago

"The education about American history that we get in the mainstream is designed to make us hate ourselves, hate this country, and feel guilty about it." Matt Walsh explains why he's launching "Real History with Matt Walsh" First episode drops on Monday!

"The education about American history that we get in the mainstream is designed to make us hate ourselves, hate this country, and feel guilty about it." Matt Walsh explains why he's launching "Real History with Matt Walsh" First episode drops on Monday!

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44,404 views • 8 months ago

Why is this guy always exploiting the most vulnerable groups for internet fame? First it was market women and now this?

Why is this guy always exploiting the most vulnerable groups for internet fame? First it was market women and now this?

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610,426 views • 2 years ago

Qullamaggie shows Why Market Crashes Never Happen Above the 10 and 20 Day Moving Averages “There's no reason for a crash. Like guys, crashes don't happen at the highs, okay? If you study every market crash in history, they usually start below the 200-day moving average, below the 50-day moving average. I've never seen, if you go back and look at the market indices the past 50 or 100 years for the Dow Jones, no market crash started when the index was above the 10, 20 day moving averages. Could this be the start of a bigger pullback? Yes, but if you're like looking for a free fall type of a market crash, it's not gonna happen above the rising moving averages. There’s just too much dip buying. So don't worry about it. Go and study market action. Market behavior. You'll see it for yourself. Then you don't have to listen, you can turn off the TV, not listen to all these idiots calling for this and that. Because you know that that's not how markets work.”

Qullamaggie shows Why Market Crashes Never Happen Above the 10 and 20 Day Moving Averages “There's no reason for a crash. Like guys, crashes don't happen at the highs, okay? If you study every market crash in history, they usually start below the 200-day moving average, below the 50-day moving average. I've never seen, if you go back and look at the market indices the past 50 or 100 years for the Dow Jones, no market crash started when the index was above the 10, 20 day moving averages. Could this be the start of a bigger pullback? Yes, but if you're like looking for a free fall type of a market crash, it's not gonna happen above the rising moving averages. There’s just too much dip buying. So don't worry about it. Go and study market action. Market behavior. You'll see it for yourself. Then you don't have to listen, you can turn off the TV, not listen to all these idiots calling for this and that. Because you know that that's not how markets work.”

Lone

28,179 views • 1 year ago

CHOOSING A CAREER PATH IN TECH AS A NEWBIE Of course, there is an argument that when starting out in tech you need to go for the stack (programming language) most common in your location. It would be easier to land a job faster because most people are already building stuff with this. What if I tell you that it is not usually the case? From experience, it could be harder to land a good-paying job if you choose a stack solely on popularity. The reason is that everybody is already thinking like you. So the competition is tough. As a newbie going against other people who have been in the process for a while can be discouraging when it seems you are not rewarded for your efforts. Why not follow the steps I did? I did a bit of research and asked questions. I was told that node jobs were everywhere but Golang is an emerging market. I thought of it for a while and then decided that instead of fighting with others probably more skilled and experienced than I am for node jobs, I would position myself for Golang as it was sure to boom and I would be one of the few experts in the field in my location. Needless to say, this has paid off. Most of the jobs I get are by referrals. Let us be honest, how many Golang developers do you know? In Summary, it is harder and takes longer to break into the labor market competing against the multitude. Why not stand out? Why not try GO?

CHOOSING A CAREER PATH IN TECH AS A NEWBIE Of course, there is an argument that when starting out in tech you need to go for the stack (programming language) most common in your location. It would be easier to land a job faster because most people are already building stuff with this. What if I tell you that it is not usually the case? From experience, it could be harder to land a good-paying job if you choose a stack solely on popularity. The reason is that everybody is already thinking like you. So the competition is tough. As a newbie going against other people who have been in the process for a while can be discouraging when it seems you are not rewarded for your efforts. Why not follow the steps I did? I did a bit of research and asked questions. I was told that node jobs were everywhere but Golang is an emerging market. I thought of it for a while and then decided that instead of fighting with others probably more skilled and experienced than I am for node jobs, I would position myself for Golang as it was sure to boom and I would be one of the few experts in the field in my location. Needless to say, this has paid off. Most of the jobs I get are by referrals. Let us be honest, how many Golang developers do you know? In Summary, it is harder and takes longer to break into the labor market competing against the multitude. Why not stand out? Why not try GO?

JA Asuquo | The Tech Bro

14,942 views • 2 years ago

"You are going to work with the Ministry of Environment to clean this place by yourselves. So we won't open the market first. We will clean first." -Fashola At a time when Lagos is dealing with a dirty environment, we can look back at how Fashola handled the same problem at Ladipo Market back in 2013. At the time, Ladipo market was experiencing massive environmental degradation caused by the neglect of its residents. After shutting down the market Fashola visited it unannounced and refused to reopen it when conditions had not improved. The market was eventually reopened after an intensive cleanup by the residents due to the stubborness of the former Governor.

"You are going to work with the Ministry of Environment to clean this place by yourselves. So we won't open the market first. We will clean first." -Fashola At a time when Lagos is dealing with a dirty environment, we can look back at how Fashola handled the same problem at Ladipo Market back in 2013. At the time, Ladipo market was experiencing massive environmental degradation caused by the neglect of its residents. After shutting down the market Fashola visited it unannounced and refused to reopen it when conditions had not improved. The market was eventually reopened after an intensive cleanup by the residents due to the stubborness of the former Governor.

LagosYouKnow

75,936 views • 3 months ago

“There's no reason why Scotland wouldn't have a free market, liberal, centre-right government if there was an acceptable vehicle to carry that message.” Andy Maciver explains that why the Conservative party has failed in Scotland.

“There's no reason why Scotland wouldn't have a free market, liberal, centre-right government if there was an acceptable vehicle to carry that message.” Andy Maciver explains that why the Conservative party has failed in Scotland.

Holyrood Sources

18,667 views • 3 months ago