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Tariffs just crashed crypto. Again. I'm sure many are watching the hourly chart, but I'm watching new Philly Fed data that just came out showing a 21-point swing into expansion territory. That's a leading indicator for the PMI cycle I've been tracking. QT ended. Liquidity injections are starting. The... show more

Dan Gambardello

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164,295 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce •via X (Twitter)

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Cardano and Midnight are setting up their crypto bull cycle. Videos like this are hard to record. Not because I don't believe what I'm saying, but because I know how it looks to the majority who don't see the bigger picture....yet. People think I'm irresponsible when I do videos like this. But in my opinion, I'd be irresponsible NOT to create a video like this at this moment of the cycle. Right now are the moments when videos like this should exist. Reminder: PMI is expanding. QT just ended. Liquidity contraction is shifting to expansion. Crypto fear all time high. Cardano is at 26 cents and Midnight is under 5 cents, while the crypto space looks very bad... And I'm sitting here talking about $5-$8 ADA and a $10-50 billion Midnight. But the biggest thing I learned over the cycles is that the data doesn't care about sentiment. Again: PMI is expanding. QT just ended. Liquidity contraction is shifting to expansion. Crypto fear all time high. The same setup that preceded every crypto bull market we've ever seen. I don't mind sounding crazy. I've been here before. Intro 00:00 What opportunity looks like 00:50 Cardano headlines 2:45 Midnight headlines 5:40 Crypto cycle 7:20 Cardano macro cycle 8:00 Cardano targets 10:15 Midnight targets 13:15

Cardano and Midnight are setting up their crypto bull cycle. Videos like this are hard to record. Not because I don't believe what I'm saying, but because I know how it looks to the majority who don't see the bigger picture....yet. People think I'm irresponsible when I do videos like this. But in my opinion, I'd be irresponsible NOT to create a video like this at this moment of the cycle. Right now are the moments when videos like this should exist. Reminder: PMI is expanding. QT just ended. Liquidity contraction is shifting to expansion. Crypto fear all time high. Cardano is at 26 cents and Midnight is under 5 cents, while the crypto space looks very bad... And I'm sitting here talking about $5-$8 ADA and a $10-50 billion Midnight. But the biggest thing I learned over the cycles is that the data doesn't care about sentiment. Again: PMI is expanding. QT just ended. Liquidity contraction is shifting to expansion. Crypto fear all time high. The same setup that preceded every crypto bull market we've ever seen. I don't mind sounding crazy. I've been here before. Intro 00:00 What opportunity looks like 00:50 Cardano headlines 2:45 Midnight headlines 5:40 Crypto cycle 7:20 Cardano macro cycle 8:00 Cardano targets 10:15 Midnight targets 13:15

Dan Gambardello

29,176 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

There Never Was A 4 Year Crypto Cycle This is just my opinion, but I think selling because of a "4-year cycle" is a colossal mistake. Every major crypto rally...2013, 2017, 2020, lined up with liquidity expansion. Every crash lined up with liquidity tightening. It wasn't the halving that drove the market. It was liquidity. QT ends in 2 weeks. I'm not saying that post-QT = QE. But I'm saying that post-QT removes the liquidity drain. And that is the big deal for crypto.

There Never Was A 4 Year Crypto Cycle This is just my opinion, but I think selling because of a "4-year cycle" is a colossal mistake. Every major crypto rally...2013, 2017, 2020, lined up with liquidity expansion. Every crash lined up with liquidity tightening. It wasn't the halving that drove the market. It was liquidity. QT ends in 2 weeks. I'm not saying that post-QT = QE. But I'm saying that post-QT removes the liquidity drain. And that is the big deal for crypto.

Dan Gambardello

108,817 görüntüleme • 7 ay önce

QT officially ended December 1st. But don't expect crypto to pump immediately. I wanted to look at how liquidity actually flows after QT ends and there's a sequence to it. 2019: QT ended around September. Around that time, the repo market got destroyed. The Fed had to inject emergency liquidity. Crypto kept falling. Altcoin bottom didn't come until December. Thankfully, the Fed seems to have a better grip this cycle. They ended QT earlier than expected specifically to avoid that kind of stress. We just need to understand that QT ending is just the "stop" signal. The drain stops. The system stabilizes. But that's not the "go" signal. The "go" signal is when real demand returns. Credit rotating. PMI moving into expansion. That's when liquidity actually flows into risk assets...and crypto is at the far end of that curve. Right now, PMI just actually ticked down to 48.2. Still contracting. We have the stop. We don't have the GO yet. I mapped out the 4-phase sequence and what to watch for:

QT officially ended December 1st. But don't expect crypto to pump immediately. I wanted to look at how liquidity actually flows after QT ends and there's a sequence to it. 2019: QT ended around September. Around that time, the repo market got destroyed. The Fed had to inject emergency liquidity. Crypto kept falling. Altcoin bottom didn't come until December. Thankfully, the Fed seems to have a better grip this cycle. They ended QT earlier than expected specifically to avoid that kind of stress. We just need to understand that QT ending is just the "stop" signal. The drain stops. The system stabilizes. But that's not the "go" signal. The "go" signal is when real demand returns. Credit rotating. PMI moving into expansion. That's when liquidity actually flows into risk assets...and crypto is at the far end of that curve. Right now, PMI just actually ticked down to 48.2. Still contracting. We have the stop. We don't have the GO yet. I mapped out the 4-phase sequence and what to watch for:

Dan Gambardello

44,035 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce

I might be the last crypto bull standing. While 2025 broke the 4-year cycle for the first time in 14 years, so many are calling bear market. QT just ended. PMI about to flip. 95% got 2025 wrong. I don't think they'll get 2026 right either...

I might be the last crypto bull standing. While 2025 broke the 4-year cycle for the first time in 14 years, so many are calling bear market. QT just ended. PMI about to flip. 95% got 2025 wrong. I don't think they'll get 2026 right either...

Dan Gambardello

193,499 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce

PMI just printed 52.6! Last time we were here was June 2022. But that was the beginning of QT and beginning of the bear. This time, we're at the END of QT and beginning of new business cycle. With a new Fed chair incoming. With inflation cratering below 1%. Crypto has never traded from this macro setup. Ever. While there is still reason to be cautious during post-QT normalization, the next 2 PMI prints will tell us a lot. Intro 00:00 PMI print and meaning 1:15 What is PMI? 3:00 FED and QE 8:45 Gold and crypto bull market 12:15 Altcoins oversold and PMI 13:30 Bitcoin indicator to watch 16:00

PMI just printed 52.6! Last time we were here was June 2022. But that was the beginning of QT and beginning of the bear. This time, we're at the END of QT and beginning of new business cycle. With a new Fed chair incoming. With inflation cratering below 1%. Crypto has never traded from this macro setup. Ever. While there is still reason to be cautious during post-QT normalization, the next 2 PMI prints will tell us a lot. Intro 00:00 PMI print and meaning 1:15 What is PMI? 3:00 FED and QE 8:45 Gold and crypto bull market 12:15 Altcoins oversold and PMI 13:30 Bitcoin indicator to watch 16:00

Dan Gambardello

56,966 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

I don't like looking at crypto charts either. Won't even dare open my portfolio. But this dip is not a surprise. I've been saying for weeks this exact same thing happened post QT in 2019. I've not been "calling it"...but I've been saying be prepared for it. But here's what I was just reminded of...asset owners will be the winners. Not the complainers (check comments below). Not the panic sellers who blame content creators that there hasn't been a bull market yet. The macro setup is screaming at us right now. Trump wants 1% rates. BlackRock's CIO is about to run the Fed. The dollar is set to fall even further. Crypto is oversold while gold and silver are parabolic. Manage your risk and don't give up. At least that's what I'm doing. Asset Owners vs. Complainers 00:00 Trump, BlackRock, and the New Fed Chair 4:05 We've been waiting for this dip 6:00 Ethereum & Cardano Chart Analysis 8:30 Why the Business Cycle (PMI) Matters Most 12:10 SUI paints a picture 12:50 Zooming out 14:10

I don't like looking at crypto charts either. Won't even dare open my portfolio. But this dip is not a surprise. I've been saying for weeks this exact same thing happened post QT in 2019. I've not been "calling it"...but I've been saying be prepared for it. But here's what I was just reminded of...asset owners will be the winners. Not the complainers (check comments below). Not the panic sellers who blame content creators that there hasn't been a bull market yet. The macro setup is screaming at us right now. Trump wants 1% rates. BlackRock's CIO is about to run the Fed. The dollar is set to fall even further. Crypto is oversold while gold and silver are parabolic. Manage your risk and don't give up. At least that's what I'm doing. Asset Owners vs. Complainers 00:00 Trump, BlackRock, and the New Fed Chair 4:05 We've been waiting for this dip 6:00 Ethereum & Cardano Chart Analysis 8:30 Why the Business Cycle (PMI) Matters Most 12:10 SUI paints a picture 12:50 Zooming out 14:10

Dan Gambardello

49,342 görüntüleme • 4 ay önce

I'll say what almost nobody in this space will say right now: I'm bullish. I literally don't care. At the highest fear we've seen, with every chart looking absolutely horrendous, I'm bullish on crypto. Oh well! Call me the bad guy for it. I'm fine being that guy. Almost no one is discussing these charts, and I will happily be the one to show them to you. Even if I'm wrong, I'm glad to be able to offer this data for consideration. Start with copper/gold. Overlay it on PMI going back to 2012 and the correlation is almost uncomfortable. Every PMI expansion, copper/gold turns up with it, and every one of those has lined up with a crypto bull market. Right now copper/gold just reclaimed its 20-month moving average. It's turning on the macro. Then the one that actually really matters. Take the altcoin market cap excluding the top 10. A small sliver of the entire market... Lay it over PMI and it tracks cleanly, bear, bull, bear, bull. PMI ticked up again two days ago, and that chart is expanding right now, in real time, in lockstep with it. Altcoins are literally printing on the chart alongside PMI while everyone calls the space dead. I'm not getting on the fear train while so many of these indicators are lining up the way they are. I've built my businesses in this space. I'll ride it to zero if that's how it goes. I just don't think it goes that way. Intro 00:00 Ethereum has been here 1:50 Cardano has been here 4:05 Copper / Gold 6:00 Watch this altcoin chart now 9:40 Liquidity rotation 12:20

I'll say what almost nobody in this space will say right now: I'm bullish. I literally don't care. At the highest fear we've seen, with every chart looking absolutely horrendous, I'm bullish on crypto. Oh well! Call me the bad guy for it. I'm fine being that guy. Almost no one is discussing these charts, and I will happily be the one to show them to you. Even if I'm wrong, I'm glad to be able to offer this data for consideration. Start with copper/gold. Overlay it on PMI going back to 2012 and the correlation is almost uncomfortable. Every PMI expansion, copper/gold turns up with it, and every one of those has lined up with a crypto bull market. Right now copper/gold just reclaimed its 20-month moving average. It's turning on the macro. Then the one that actually really matters. Take the altcoin market cap excluding the top 10. A small sliver of the entire market... Lay it over PMI and it tracks cleanly, bear, bull, bear, bull. PMI ticked up again two days ago, and that chart is expanding right now, in real time, in lockstep with it. Altcoins are literally printing on the chart alongside PMI while everyone calls the space dead. I'm not getting on the fear train while so many of these indicators are lining up the way they are. I've built my businesses in this space. I'll ride it to zero if that's how it goes. I just don't think it goes that way. Intro 00:00 Ethereum has been here 1:50 Cardano has been here 4:05 Copper / Gold 6:00 Watch this altcoin chart now 9:40 Liquidity rotation 12:20

Dan Gambardello

43,470 görüntüleme • 20 gün önce

The Russell 2000 is breaking out of a multi-year range right as QT ends and the PMI approaches expansion territory. This is the same setup that preceded every major risk-on rotation going back decades. Small caps lead. Then crypto follows. But there's one thing I can't stop thinking about. Last cycle, we had this exact setup in late 2019. QT ended. PMI was turning. Russell starting to move. The ingredients were there. Then March 2020 happened... I'm not saying a black swan is going to happen. But I can't stop thinking about how it happened last cycle right at this moment. Either way...whether we get a clean business cycle expansion or something forces even more aggressive policy response, the macro is pointing the same direction. Intro 00:00 Russell 2000 meaning 00:30 Here’s the move we wait for 2:15 itrustcapital 5:00 The crypto concern 5:35

The Russell 2000 is breaking out of a multi-year range right as QT ends and the PMI approaches expansion territory. This is the same setup that preceded every major risk-on rotation going back decades. Small caps lead. Then crypto follows. But there's one thing I can't stop thinking about. Last cycle, we had this exact setup in late 2019. QT ended. PMI was turning. Russell starting to move. The ingredients were there. Then March 2020 happened... I'm not saying a black swan is going to happen. But I can't stop thinking about how it happened last cycle right at this moment. Either way...whether we get a clean business cycle expansion or something forces even more aggressive policy response, the macro is pointing the same direction. Intro 00:00 Russell 2000 meaning 00:30 Here’s the move we wait for 2:15 itrustcapital 5:00 The crypto concern 5:35

Dan Gambardello

51,808 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce

Every crypto cycle bottom has had two things in common: price below the .786 Fib, and a contracting economy. Right now, the .786 is sitting 25-30% lower on altcoins. But the macro is flipping and different than every cycle before at this moment. QT is over, PMI contraction is ending. So either crypto ignores the best macro setup in years and keeps falling… or the 4-year cycle is no longer. I don't know which one it is. But I'm watching both closely.

Every crypto cycle bottom has had two things in common: price below the .786 Fib, and a contracting economy. Right now, the .786 is sitting 25-30% lower on altcoins. But the macro is flipping and different than every cycle before at this moment. QT is over, PMI contraction is ending. So either crypto ignores the best macro setup in years and keeps falling… or the 4-year cycle is no longer. I don't know which one it is. But I'm watching both closely.

Dan Gambardello

30,962 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

"We're entering a bear market." I keep seeing this. So I keep digging into the macro data. And that's not what appears to be happening at all... → QT ends December 1st → RRP drained from $2.5T to basically zero → TGA elevated (any drawdown injects liquidity) → Longest manufacturing contraction on record (26 months) → Net liquidity flattening This is not a bear market setup. This is the setup that comes before a next leg. I think there is a possibility people are reacting only to price, and not the macro.

"We're entering a bear market." I keep seeing this. So I keep digging into the macro data. And that's not what appears to be happening at all... → QT ends December 1st → RRP drained from $2.5T to basically zero → TGA elevated (any drawdown injects liquidity) → Longest manufacturing contraction on record (26 months) → Net liquidity flattening This is not a bear market setup. This is the setup that comes before a next leg. I think there is a possibility people are reacting only to price, and not the macro.

Dan Gambardello

73,346 görüntüleme • 6 ay önce

If You Hold ALTCOINS, You NEED to See This PMI just came out TODAY and it printed lower at 47.9...after quantitative tightening officially ended. That’s the same post-QT lag we saw in 2019, right before liquidity turned. Altcoins move at the confluence of liquidity and business activity. This is the data point every crypto holder should pay attention to. In this video I explain exactly what this PMI print means for a crypto bull market. Intro 00:00 Exactly what the PMI data means 1:25 Could we expand sooner this cycle? 10:20 Altcoins vs. BTC 12:30 Dip or bear market? 14:20 Big CCV Intelligence update 17:40

If You Hold ALTCOINS, You NEED to See This PMI just came out TODAY and it printed lower at 47.9...after quantitative tightening officially ended. That’s the same post-QT lag we saw in 2019, right before liquidity turned. Altcoins move at the confluence of liquidity and business activity. This is the data point every crypto holder should pay attention to. In this video I explain exactly what this PMI print means for a crypto bull market. Intro 00:00 Exactly what the PMI data means 1:25 Could we expand sooner this cycle? 10:20 Altcoins vs. BTC 12:30 Dip or bear market? 14:20 Big CCV Intelligence update 17:40

Dan Gambardello

149,545 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce

🐨 I'm just me, I'm just me. I've been through a lot, but I'm standing here healthy and strong and I know I'm going to find a way and I'm going to be there for you. KIM NAMJOON YOU ARE THE STRONGEST PERSON I KNOW

🐨 I'm just me, I'm just me. I've been through a lot, but I'm standing here healthy and strong and I know I'm going to find a way and I'm going to be there for you. KIM NAMJOON YOU ARE THE STRONGEST PERSON I KNOW

🌧️

98,453 görüntüleme • 1 yıl önce

The CRYPTO Bear Market Is ENDING. So much arguing between people about WHEN the bottom is. I zoomed out on the cycle and data, and just realized... At this point, everyone is right! At the very least, as long as crypto doesn't fail, everyone agrees what's next on the macro.

The CRYPTO Bear Market Is ENDING. So much arguing between people about WHEN the bottom is. I zoomed out on the cycle and data, and just realized... At this point, everyone is right! At the very least, as long as crypto doesn't fail, everyone agrees what's next on the macro.

Dan Gambardello

35,264 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

"I've been watching Gyokeres a bit and I'm watching Sesko... I think we got the better deal!" 😱 #mufc

"I've been watching Gyokeres a bit and I'm watching Sesko... I think we got the better deal!" 😱 #mufc

The United Stand

67,976 görüntüleme • 7 ay önce

Crypto is red today, but the chart that actually matters for altcoins is up & sitting at a multi‑year pivot. Others/BTC is pressing into the same setup we had post‑QT in 2019, right as PMI finally flips into expansion. This chart is getting squeezed right into a cycle shift. Intro 00:00 Macro theory summation 1:00 QT 1:30 PMI 2:40 Here’s where the cycle is 4:00 Copper/Gold breaking out 6:10 Altcoins vs. Bitcoin 7:45 Altcoins did this last time 9:30 Other macro indicators 12:30

Crypto is red today, but the chart that actually matters for altcoins is up & sitting at a multi‑year pivot. Others/BTC is pressing into the same setup we had post‑QT in 2019, right as PMI finally flips into expansion. This chart is getting squeezed right into a cycle shift. Intro 00:00 Macro theory summation 1:00 QT 1:30 PMI 2:40 Here’s where the cycle is 4:00 Copper/Gold breaking out 6:10 Altcoins vs. Bitcoin 7:45 Altcoins did this last time 9:30 Other macro indicators 12:30

Dan Gambardello

17,798 görüntüleme • 14 gün önce

🚨 JUST IN: The moment President Trump says he doesn't think he can get into heaven "I don't think there's anything that's gonna get me in heaven. I really don't. I think I'm not, maybe, heaven-bound." "I may be in heaven right now as we fly in Air Force One. I'm not sure I'm gonna be able to make heaven. But I've made life better for a lot of people." 🙏

🚨 JUST IN: The moment President Trump says he doesn't think he can get into heaven "I don't think there's anything that's gonna get me in heaven. I really don't. I think I'm not, maybe, heaven-bound." "I may be in heaven right now as we fly in Air Force One. I'm not sure I'm gonna be able to make heaven. But I've made life better for a lot of people." 🙏

Eric Daugherty

6,970,129 görüntüleme • 8 ay önce

The VIX is parabolic right now. The last time macro looked exactly like this, PMI ending its contraction, QT just ended, fear at extremes...was February 2020. One more capitulation and we know what happened next. I'm not calling a bottom. But I am preparing.

The VIX is parabolic right now. The last time macro looked exactly like this, PMI ending its contraction, QT just ended, fear at extremes...was February 2020. One more capitulation and we know what happened next. I'm not calling a bottom. But I am preparing.

Dan Gambardello

30,419 görüntüleme • 3 ay önce

Asked Jayson Tatum if he feels like there’s been a turning point with the joy he’s felt on the floor as of late: “Klay [Thompson] told me this after we played them the first time, he’s just like, ‘Man, he’s like one thing he wished he did more, when he first came back was just give himself more grace. He was like, ‘There's not too many people understand what this injury is like and coming back and the ups and downs, physically and mentally that you deal with.’ That's just something I've tried to continue to remind myself. It’s a balance of being a competitor and wanting to be the best version of yourself, but I just kind of try to remember, I've came a long way, and I'm grateful to be where I'm at. I wasn't 100% sure I was even gonna be able to play this year, so the fact that I'm able to go out there and contribute even what I'm doing now is a big win.” Has he been applying Klay’s advice? “I try. I still get frustrated.”

Asked Jayson Tatum if he feels like there’s been a turning point with the joy he’s felt on the floor as of late: “Klay [Thompson] told me this after we played them the first time, he’s just like, ‘Man, he’s like one thing he wished he did more, when he first came back was just give himself more grace. He was like, ‘There's not too many people understand what this injury is like and coming back and the ups and downs, physically and mentally that you deal with.’ That's just something I've tried to continue to remind myself. It’s a balance of being a competitor and wanting to be the best version of yourself, but I just kind of try to remember, I've came a long way, and I'm grateful to be where I'm at. I wasn't 100% sure I was even gonna be able to play this year, so the fact that I'm able to go out there and contribute even what I'm doing now is a big win.” Has he been applying Klay’s advice? “I try. I still get frustrated.”

Noa Dalzell 🏀

577,903 görüntüleme • 2 ay önce

I'm done waiting on news & headlines to drop. We attribute crypto bull and bear markets to headlines way too much. We sit around waiting on Clarity Act to pass or supreme court to rule on tariffs like it's going to be the most important bull market catalyst. News events can be big short term catalysts, but they're not the things that move capital at scale from macro perspective. The macro catalyst has been the same exact thing every single cycle, and I don't think that's going to change this cycle. It's liquidity and business activity...

I'm done waiting on news & headlines to drop. We attribute crypto bull and bear markets to headlines way too much. We sit around waiting on Clarity Act to pass or supreme court to rule on tariffs like it's going to be the most important bull market catalyst. News events can be big short term catalysts, but they're not the things that move capital at scale from macro perspective. The macro catalyst has been the same exact thing every single cycle, and I don't think that's going to change this cycle. It's liquidity and business activity...

Dan Gambardello

67,020 görüntüleme • 5 ay önce