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"We're entering a bear market." I keep seeing this. So I keep digging into the macro data. And that's not what appears to be happening at all... → QT ends December 1st → RRP drained from $2.5T to basically zero → TGA elevated (any drawdown injects liquidity) → Longest... show more

Dan Gambardello

315,646 subscribers

73,367 просмотров • 9 месяцев назад •via X (Twitter)

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Tariffs just crashed crypto. Again. I'm sure many are watching the hourly chart, but I'm watching new Philly Fed data that just came out showing a 21-point swing into expansion territory. That's a leading indicator for the PMI cycle I've been tracking. QT ended. Liquidity injections are starting. The macro setup hasn't changed. Be careful to get distracted. Can we dip more? Yes. Is this a bear market? I don't think so. I'm zoomed out and I'm holding.

Tariffs just crashed crypto. Again. I'm sure many are watching the hourly chart, but I'm watching new Philly Fed data that just came out showing a 21-point swing into expansion territory. That's a leading indicator for the PMI cycle I've been tracking. QT ended. Liquidity injections are starting. The macro setup hasn't changed. Be careful to get distracted. Can we dip more? Yes. Is this a bear market? I don't think so. I'm zoomed out and I'm holding.

Dan Gambardello

164,367 просмотров • 7 месяцев назад

"There will be no altseason." 36 million tokens. Liquidity diluted. No rotation coming. I keep seeing this everywhere. So I looked at the data. That's not what is happening at all and I will explain that very simply... On top of the actual cycle framework that matters. The real altseason hasn't started. We've been playing on hard mode. And that ends soon.

"There will be no altseason." 36 million tokens. Liquidity diluted. No rotation coming. I keep seeing this everywhere. So I looked at the data. That's not what is happening at all and I will explain that very simply... On top of the actual cycle framework that matters. The real altseason hasn't started. We've been playing on hard mode. And that ends soon.

Dan Gambardello

145,033 просмотров • 9 месяцев назад

Nailed the $QQQ and $SPY sell off so far After this week’s bounce, a lot of people are asking if I think the selling is done and if this is the bottom. In this video I break down the macro setup on $QQQ and $SPY, and why I think this rally is a trap, not safety. I also walk through exactly what I need to see for a real bottom and a move back to all time highs.

Nailed the $QQQ and $SPY sell off so far After this week’s bounce, a lot of people are asking if I think the selling is done and if this is the bottom. In this video I break down the macro setup on $QQQ and $SPY, and why I think this rally is a trap, not safety. I also walk through exactly what I need to see for a real bottom and a move back to all time highs.

Peter DiCarlo

70,626 просмотров • 5 месяцев назад

🚨🇺🇸 The bear market everyone is waiting out might not be a natural cycle at all. LitVM Co-founder Aztec argues that deliberate market manipulation, not organic correction, knocked us off a supercycle that was already underway. "Last October I won't mention any names, but I believe there were some actors that essentially shorted the market, took the liquidity out of the system, and I think that we're just recovering from that." LitVM

🚨🇺🇸 The bear market everyone is waiting out might not be a natural cycle at all. LitVM Co-founder Aztec argues that deliberate market manipulation, not organic correction, knocked us off a supercycle that was already underway. "Last October I won't mention any names, but I believe there were some actors that essentially shorted the market, took the liquidity out of the system, and I think that we're just recovering from that." LitVM

Mario Nawfal

77,186 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

The Fed just confirmed a massive liquidity rotation. Many people are talking about “bear market.” Sentiment is washed out. Even some long time crypto holders are wobbling. But underneath the surface, the story is completely different: → RRP drained from $2.5T to basically zero → QT ends in days → None of that cash disappeared…it moved And here’s the part we need to remember: Liquidity doesn't hit risk assets first. When the RRP drained, that money didn’t go into crypto. It went into Treasuries...T-bills, short-term government debt, plugging the deficit. That was Stage One. And it’s already done. Stage Two is when liquidity pushes out the risk curve... NOT BECAUSE OF HYPE, but because yield forces it there. That phase is beginning right now. Crypto looks awful because we’re in the transition zone...the part where sentiment lags the plumbing. Sentiment is backward-looking. Liquidity is forward-looking. We’re not late. We’re early. Crypto isn’t breaking…it’s coiling.

The Fed just confirmed a massive liquidity rotation. Many people are talking about “bear market.” Sentiment is washed out. Even some long time crypto holders are wobbling. But underneath the surface, the story is completely different: → RRP drained from $2.5T to basically zero → QT ends in days → None of that cash disappeared…it moved And here’s the part we need to remember: Liquidity doesn't hit risk assets first. When the RRP drained, that money didn’t go into crypto. It went into Treasuries...T-bills, short-term government debt, plugging the deficit. That was Stage One. And it’s already done. Stage Two is when liquidity pushes out the risk curve... NOT BECAUSE OF HYPE, but because yield forces it there. That phase is beginning right now. Crypto looks awful because we’re in the transition zone...the part where sentiment lags the plumbing. Sentiment is backward-looking. Liquidity is forward-looking. We’re not late. We’re early. Crypto isn’t breaking…it’s coiling.

Dan Gambardello

64,471 просмотров • 9 месяцев назад

Raoul Pal explains the relationship between the business cycle, debt maturity, liquidity and why Bitcoin and crypto are not entering a bear market. In fact, most of the liquidity is going to come in 2026. Everyone who owns Bitcoin needs to watch this explanation.

Raoul Pal explains the relationship between the business cycle, debt maturity, liquidity and why Bitcoin and crypto are not entering a bear market. In fact, most of the liquidity is going to come in 2026. Everyone who owns Bitcoin needs to watch this explanation.

The ₿itcoin Therapist

17,961 просмотров • 8 месяцев назад

Most people are staring at price right now (myself included). But the real story is happening underneath the market. FED's checking account JUST ticked down! QT is ending. The TGA is about to fall. M2 is curling. The liquidity engine that drives every major crypto cycle is finally warming up. I explain this mechanism in full detail below. When liquidity flips, the market moves before sentiment does. Crypto holder, be ready for that.

Most people are staring at price right now (myself included). But the real story is happening underneath the market. FED's checking account JUST ticked down! QT is ending. The TGA is about to fall. M2 is curling. The liquidity engine that drives every major crypto cycle is finally warming up. I explain this mechanism in full detail below. When liquidity flips, the market moves before sentiment does. Crypto holder, be ready for that.

Dan Gambardello

142,356 просмотров • 9 месяцев назад

Cardano and Midnight are setting up their crypto bull cycle. Videos like this are hard to record. Not because I don't believe what I'm saying, but because I know how it looks to the majority who don't see the bigger picture....yet. People think I'm irresponsible when I do videos like this. But in my opinion, I'd be irresponsible NOT to create a video like this at this moment of the cycle. Right now are the moments when videos like this should exist. Reminder: PMI is expanding. QT just ended. Liquidity contraction is shifting to expansion. Crypto fear all time high. Cardano is at 26 cents and Midnight is under 5 cents, while the crypto space looks very bad... And I'm sitting here talking about $5-$8 ADA and a $10-50 billion Midnight. But the biggest thing I learned over the cycles is that the data doesn't care about sentiment. Again: PMI is expanding. QT just ended. Liquidity contraction is shifting to expansion. Crypto fear all time high. The same setup that preceded every crypto bull market we've ever seen. I don't mind sounding crazy. I've been here before. Intro 00:00 What opportunity looks like 00:50 Cardano headlines 2:45 Midnight headlines 5:40 Crypto cycle 7:20 Cardano macro cycle 8:00 Cardano targets 10:15 Midnight targets 13:15

Cardano and Midnight are setting up their crypto bull cycle. Videos like this are hard to record. Not because I don't believe what I'm saying, but because I know how it looks to the majority who don't see the bigger picture....yet. People think I'm irresponsible when I do videos like this. But in my opinion, I'd be irresponsible NOT to create a video like this at this moment of the cycle. Right now are the moments when videos like this should exist. Reminder: PMI is expanding. QT just ended. Liquidity contraction is shifting to expansion. Crypto fear all time high. Cardano is at 26 cents and Midnight is under 5 cents, while the crypto space looks very bad... And I'm sitting here talking about $5-$8 ADA and a $10-50 billion Midnight. But the biggest thing I learned over the cycles is that the data doesn't care about sentiment. Again: PMI is expanding. QT just ended. Liquidity contraction is shifting to expansion. Crypto fear all time high. The same setup that preceded every crypto bull market we've ever seen. I don't mind sounding crazy. I've been here before. Intro 00:00 What opportunity looks like 00:50 Cardano headlines 2:45 Midnight headlines 5:40 Crypto cycle 7:20 Cardano macro cycle 8:00 Cardano targets 10:15 Midnight targets 13:15

Dan Gambardello

29,212 просмотров • 7 месяцев назад

Sentiment Says Crypto Is Finished. The Data Says the Opposite. Everyone is staring at the short-term fear. Almost nobody is connecting the macro. For weeks now, the loudest charts on the timeline have been calling for a major top. Bearish divergence here. Sentiment oscillator there. “Cycle’s over.” “Bull run done.” But under the surface… something completely different is happening. • PMI is bottoming after record-breaking contraction • Business cycle expansion is next • QT ends in days...only the second time in history • Liquidity pressures are about to disappear • Crypto has quietly been in a multi-year bear market already

Sentiment Says Crypto Is Finished. The Data Says the Opposite. Everyone is staring at the short-term fear. Almost nobody is connecting the macro. For weeks now, the loudest charts on the timeline have been calling for a major top. Bearish divergence here. Sentiment oscillator there. “Cycle’s over.” “Bull run done.” But under the surface… something completely different is happening. • PMI is bottoming after record-breaking contraction • Business cycle expansion is next • QT ends in days...only the second time in history • Liquidity pressures are about to disappear • Crypto has quietly been in a multi-year bear market already

Dan Gambardello

147,409 просмотров • 9 месяцев назад

ANTHONY POMPLIANO IS SUPER BULLISH ON BITCOIN DURING THIS BEAR MARKET: "I own more Bitcoin today than I did before the drawdown and we've got a public company that they own more Bitcoin than we did before the drawdown." "Anyone who holds Bitcoin and doesn't think that it's gonna hit a new all-time high at some point the next two or three years then maybe they don't really understand what they own." "I actually think it's very important that we don't know who Satoshi is... I prefer not to know because I think that one of the strengths of Bitcoin is the fact that it is not associated with any one person." "We are ALL Satoshi?"

ANTHONY POMPLIANO IS SUPER BULLISH ON BITCOIN DURING THIS BEAR MARKET: "I own more Bitcoin today than I did before the drawdown and we've got a public company that they own more Bitcoin than we did before the drawdown." "Anyone who holds Bitcoin and doesn't think that it's gonna hit a new all-time high at some point the next two or three years then maybe they don't really understand what they own." "I actually think it's very important that we don't know who Satoshi is... I prefer not to know because I think that one of the strengths of Bitcoin is the fact that it is not associated with any one person." "We are ALL Satoshi?"

Simply Bitcoin

161,140 просмотров • 4 месяцев назад

🚨 I JUST OPENED A $SPCX SHORT AT $133 The market thinks the unlock risk is gone because $SPCX didn’t dump immediately. That’s exactly what makes this dangerous. The crowd is getting comfortable. Liquidity is piling back in. And I think they’re walking straight into the exit-liquidity phase. I just took a major short here because the setup is starting to look too obvious to ignore. If I’m right, $133 won’t look like a good entry for longs for very long. I’ll break down exactly what I’m seeing and where I expect this to go next. Stay close.

🚨 I JUST OPENED A $SPCX SHORT AT $133 The market thinks the unlock risk is gone because $SPCX didn’t dump immediately. That’s exactly what makes this dangerous. The crowd is getting comfortable. Liquidity is piling back in. And I think they’re walking straight into the exit-liquidity phase. I just took a major short here because the setup is starting to look too obvious to ignore. If I’m right, $133 won’t look like a good entry for longs for very long. I’ll break down exactly what I’m seeing and where I expect this to go next. Stay close.

Phantom_Defi

12,852 просмотров • 1 месяц назад

A DEX becomes a lot more interesting to me when the question is not only: “What can I trade here?” But also: “Can I actually contribute liquidity here?” That is one part of RivrDEX I think deserves more attention. RivrDEX is permissionless, so you are not limited to simply using the liquidity that is already available. You can add liquidity to a pool, receive LP tokens, and earn a share of the trading fees. It changes the way I look at a DEX. You are not just a trader using someone else’s liquidity. You can also become part of the liquidity behind the market. For smaller markets especially, having an open way to provide liquidity without going through a centralized platform feels pretty important. Trade with the liquidity that is there. Or help build it. That is a much more interesting idea to me.

A DEX becomes a lot more interesting to me when the question is not only: “What can I trade here?” But also: “Can I actually contribute liquidity here?” That is one part of RivrDEX I think deserves more attention. RivrDEX is permissionless, so you are not limited to simply using the liquidity that is already available. You can add liquidity to a pool, receive LP tokens, and earn a share of the trading fees. It changes the way I look at a DEX. You are not just a trader using someone else’s liquidity. You can also become part of the liquidity behind the market. For smaller markets especially, having an open way to provide liquidity without going through a centralized platform feels pretty important. Trade with the liquidity that is there. Or help build it. That is a much more interesting idea to me.

Rhyne

15,607 просмотров • 9 дней назад

"I have no reason to think this is the bottom. I think by the end of Q3 we've definitely hit the bottom and are turning back around. The idea that the four year cycle was dead is overstated" Alex Miller on how he's viewing the market "I don't really care what the market does in the next six months. It doesn't affect what I do because I learned long ago that I do not know how to time the market. I'm not an active trader" "I have no reason to think this is the bottom. I don't buy into the argument that there's some structural thing going on right now that makes the 65, 58 we had last week, the 64 we're at now, the bottom of the market. Macro things can happen"

"I have no reason to think this is the bottom. I think by the end of Q3 we've definitely hit the bottom and are turning back around. The idea that the four year cycle was dead is overstated" Alex Miller on how he's viewing the market "I don't really care what the market does in the next six months. It doesn't affect what I do because I learned long ago that I do not know how to time the market. I'm not an active trader" "I have no reason to think this is the bottom. I don't buy into the argument that there's some structural thing going on right now that makes the 65, 58 we had last week, the 64 we're at now, the bottom of the market. Macro things can happen"

The Wolf Of All Streets

33,817 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

The CRYPTO Bear Market Is ENDING. So much arguing between people about WHEN the bottom is. I zoomed out on the cycle and data, and just realized... At this point, everyone is right! At the very least, as long as crypto doesn't fail, everyone agrees what's next on the macro.

The CRYPTO Bear Market Is ENDING. So much arguing between people about WHEN the bottom is. I zoomed out on the cycle and data, and just realized... At this point, everyone is right! At the very least, as long as crypto doesn't fail, everyone agrees what's next on the macro.

Dan Gambardello

35,295 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад

There Never Was A 4 Year Crypto Cycle This is just my opinion, but I think selling because of a "4-year cycle" is a colossal mistake. Every major crypto rally...2013, 2017, 2020, lined up with liquidity expansion. Every crash lined up with liquidity tightening. It wasn't the halving that drove the market. It was liquidity. QT ends in 2 weeks. I'm not saying that post-QT = QE. But I'm saying that post-QT removes the liquidity drain. And that is the big deal for crypto.

There Never Was A 4 Year Crypto Cycle This is just my opinion, but I think selling because of a "4-year cycle" is a colossal mistake. Every major crypto rally...2013, 2017, 2020, lined up with liquidity expansion. Every crash lined up with liquidity tightening. It wasn't the halving that drove the market. It was liquidity. QT ends in 2 weeks. I'm not saying that post-QT = QE. But I'm saying that post-QT removes the liquidity drain. And that is the big deal for crypto.

Dan Gambardello

108,919 просмотров • 9 месяцев назад

.Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent: "We're trying to signal that we think that this is a thinly traded area of the market, that we're in August and there's been a lot of corporate issuance that's influenced the market, and we believe that there are many underlying factors that the market is not looking at."

.Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent: "We're trying to signal that we think that this is a thinly traded area of the market, that we're in August and there's been a lot of corporate issuance that's influenced the market, and we believe that there are many underlying factors that the market is not looking at."

Rapid Response 47

87,552 просмотров • 23 дней назад

🚨 I WARNED YOU THIS WAS COMING Months ago, I said Bitcoin would enter the next bear market in June. Now $BTC is getting rejected exactly where I said it would. The chart is showing weak demand. Every rally is getting sold. Every bounce is getting weaker. And everything is going according to plan. Most people still think this is a buying opportunity. That's exactly what they thought before every major dump. The crowd sees a dip. I see a market running out of buyers. I called the $17K Bitcoin bottom in 2022 and the $126K top in 2025 before most people saw them. I'll call the next market bottom too. Follow and turn notifications on. Don't become exit liquidity.

🚨 I WARNED YOU THIS WAS COMING Months ago, I said Bitcoin would enter the next bear market in June. Now $BTC is getting rejected exactly where I said it would. The chart is showing weak demand. Every rally is getting sold. Every bounce is getting weaker. And everything is going according to plan. Most people still think this is a buying opportunity. That's exactly what they thought before every major dump. The crowd sees a dip. I see a market running out of buyers. I called the $17K Bitcoin bottom in 2022 and the $126K top in 2025 before most people saw them. I'll call the next market bottom too. Follow and turn notifications on. Don't become exit liquidity.

Lofty

36,171 просмотров • 3 месяцев назад

Matt Hougan breaks down the five narratives that make this bull market more durable than previous rallies "I think there are, like, four narratives that are working in crypto, maybe five. This isn't just a crypto bid, which is what we previously saw in the past." "I think Bitcoin is being driven by the debasement bid. I think there's a stablecoin and tokenization bid that is lifting things like Ethereum and Solana and Chainlink and other assets in that space." "I think there's an improving tokenomics bid, where people are excited about assets with cash flow, I think that's why you're seeing Hyperliquid. I think if there was a Uniswap ETF, it would be doing well." "Then I think there is the Zcash privacy bid. The other bid is probably this retail degen." "The reason I raise all those is, like, that's a really robust bull market. When it's just risk-on, risk-off, we're one tweet away from Scott Bessent going into a bear market. But that's not what it is right now." "It's debasement, it's tokenization, it's improving tokenomics, it's privacy, it's memetic culture. All of those are firing at once." "Really, the market has turned because you have all these narratives working at once."

Matt Hougan breaks down the five narratives that make this bull market more durable than previous rallies "I think there are, like, four narratives that are working in crypto, maybe five. This isn't just a crypto bid, which is what we previously saw in the past." "I think Bitcoin is being driven by the debasement bid. I think there's a stablecoin and tokenization bid that is lifting things like Ethereum and Solana and Chainlink and other assets in that space." "I think there's an improving tokenomics bid, where people are excited about assets with cash flow, I think that's why you're seeing Hyperliquid. I think if there was a Uniswap ETF, it would be doing well." "Then I think there is the Zcash privacy bid. The other bid is probably this retail degen." "The reason I raise all those is, like, that's a really robust bull market. When it's just risk-on, risk-off, we're one tweet away from Scott Bessent going into a bear market. But that's not what it is right now." "It's debasement, it's tokenization, it's improving tokenomics, it's privacy, it's memetic culture. All of those are firing at once." "Really, the market has turned because you have all these narratives working at once."

The Wolf Of All Streets

32,615 просмотров • 3 дней назад

🚨 8 YEARS IN AND I'VE NEVER SEEN A SETUP LIKE THIS The amount of long liquidity stacked at $58K is unlike anything I've seen in nearly a decade of trading Once price hits that level the liquidation cascade will be brutal We're talking $2B in forced selling that could mark the actual cycle bottom This market has been purely liquidity-driven the entire cycle chopping from one imbalance to the next, and the pattern keeps repeating My view hasn't changed: $55K and $50K are coming, and $42K is absolutely on the table Both mathematically and historically this lines up perfectly Macro bottoms never feel like bottoms they come after the most aggressive liquidation event of the cycle, When nobody is expecting it and everyone has already given up That's when liquidity is fully exhausted and there's simply nothing left to sell I'm already buying and will keep DCA-ing at: $58K $55K $52K I bought BTC at $16K last cycle, called the exact $126K top 8 years of doing this and I believe the next few months are the most important opportunity of this entire cycle Follow and turn on notifications - the people who do tend not to regret it

🚨 8 YEARS IN AND I'VE NEVER SEEN A SETUP LIKE THIS The amount of long liquidity stacked at $58K is unlike anything I've seen in nearly a decade of trading Once price hits that level the liquidation cascade will be brutal We're talking $2B in forced selling that could mark the actual cycle bottom This market has been purely liquidity-driven the entire cycle chopping from one imbalance to the next, and the pattern keeps repeating My view hasn't changed: $55K and $50K are coming, and $42K is absolutely on the table Both mathematically and historically this lines up perfectly Macro bottoms never feel like bottoms they come after the most aggressive liquidation event of the cycle, When nobody is expecting it and everyone has already given up That's when liquidity is fully exhausted and there's simply nothing left to sell I'm already buying and will keep DCA-ing at: $58K $55K $52K I bought BTC at $16K last cycle, called the exact $126K top 8 years of doing this and I believe the next few months are the most important opportunity of this entire cycle Follow and turn on notifications - the people who do tend not to regret it

philarekt

29,159 просмотров • 2 месяцев назад

THIS CHART BITCOIN HAS NEVER LIED!!! Now we are no LONGER WAITING, no clickbait or other nonsense. - The setup is 100% COMPLETE - The line held - The reversal is happening This is the moment every holder has been waiting for. This is where price STARTS TO EXPAND, not crawl. This remains the ONLY CHART YOU NEED TO TRUST. And it has played out EXACTLY AS PREDICTED. - No more warnings. - No more patience. The next few days and weeks will be EXTREMELY volatile. I will keep you updated. I've studied macro for 10 years and I called almost every major market top, including the October BTC ATH. Follow and turn notifications on.

THIS CHART BITCOIN HAS NEVER LIED!!! Now we are no LONGER WAITING, no clickbait or other nonsense. - The setup is 100% COMPLETE - The line held - The reversal is happening This is the moment every holder has been waiting for. This is where price STARTS TO EXPAND, not crawl. This remains the ONLY CHART YOU NEED TO TRUST. And it has played out EXACTLY AS PREDICTED. - No more warnings. - No more patience. The next few days and weeks will be EXTREMELY volatile. I will keep you updated. I've studied macro for 10 years and I called almost every major market top, including the October BTC ATH. Follow and turn notifications on.

DANNY

32,556 просмотров • 6 месяцев назад