The 4-year cycle is an illusion. Copper doesn't run on a calendar. Neither does the S&P, the Russell 2000, or anything else on the risk curve. Every asset class moves with the business cycle, and crypto is no different. It's just the last one to move. The 2012, 2016... and 2020 halvings all landed right as the business cycle flipped to expansion. 2024 didn't, and that's the cycle everyone said felt broken. Our business cycle index just confirmed expansion as we approach the precipice of an AI productivity boom. This will be a bull market like no other. The 4-year cycle is an illusion 0:00 Bitcoin's first bear market 0:36 Halvings and the business cycle 1:05 Why this cycle felt confusing 1:59 All-time highs and ETFs 2:49 Why it isn't logical 3:24 Copper vs gold 4:52 QT ending 6:37 Russell 2000 7:04 End of the risk curve 7:48 Altcoins in 2026 8:23 AI productivity boom 8:59 Business Cycle Index 10:14 What expansion means 12:59 Final thoughts 14:18show more

You @Sykodelic_ & @TechDev_52 All on same page 👍

@Sykodelic_ @TechDev_52 Both awesome analysts.

I tried to tell them....

🔥🔥🔥

Calendars don't move markets, cycles of risk and liquidity do. Crypto just lags because it's the wildest kid on the playground, last to get the memo. Stop trading dates, start trading conditions. Discipline beats superstition every single time. Read the business cycle, not the horoscope.

You can have an early four year cycle. I know I’ve said it 20 times and I’m probably muted, but cycle theory has a +- 6 month (weekly cycle) tolerance. It isn’t related to the halving. I bought the weekly cycle low because it was a legal 4 year cycle low.

I do also think that the boys who run the markets and now that Wall Street is fully in charge of the crypto markets have to make every cycle look different than the next, as they don't want you to win. Tools like this make all the difference.

I agree and yet 1 year after the last high is always the next low. Guess where we've just been. Looks similar to me.

🤨🫡

Dan is a beast ✊

Copper doesn't run on a calendar — it runs on grade and capex. Both have gone the wrong way for a decade.

Supercycle is coming..

🙌🏽

The business-cycle framework explains this cycle pretty well.

big call, especially with the cycle still finding its feet

It’s going to be epic and eclipse everything else

So does RSI, MACD, Bollinger, M2 supply, and whatever exists. Power of buyer is stronger than anything. Remeber GME story? Roaring kitty and wallstreet bets? I hope no one uses these metrics to Nike stocks.

🚀🚀🚀

The last cycle was muted by AI stocks stealing investor attention. However, if that dynamic reverses, the long/short strategy could supercharge the next cycle.

So if the business cycle doesn’t run because Trump wants to be the most disruptive president ever, which I’m not disagreeing with, then we won’t get a run?

Hi 👋 Dan, I agree ! Crypto runs in liquidity not on a cycle ! Of course it happen in the past, but now btc is a value store and not longer the purpose at the future to pay with! With signals of a PMI Russel 2000 en interest rates there are other causes who pushed btc Geert🌷🇳🇱

I agree with the idea that understanding the underlying economic trends can provide valuable insights for investors.

The comparison with copper, the S&P, and the Russell is what makes this argument worth considering. You and @RavenRavieee both keep the bigger macro picture on my radar, and looking at bitcoin:native through liquidity and risk appetite could explain why future cycles don’t necessarily have to follow the same four-year script.

global liquidity cycle drives everything at the end