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🇻🇪🇺🇸🇨🇳 The Bloomberg analysis makes one thing painfully clear: The U.S. didn’t capture Venezuela’s oil, it captured a geopolitical illusion. For years, Washington convinced itself that: • Venezuela was sitting on “300 billion barrels of the world’s most desired reserves” • China depended heavily on Venezuelan crude • Cutting...

172,087 views • 8 months ago •via X (Twitter)

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The most powerful force in the oil market is now a single country that doesn't produce a drop. OPEC IS DEAD And here's why you should change how you think about energy for the next decade: China controls the oil price not by pumping it, but by REFUSING TO BUY IT. For two years, while the West wasn't paying attention, China built a war chest of crude. They bought cheap, sanctioned barrels at $60 while everyone else looked the other way. They stacked a reserve now estimated between 1.2 and 1.5 BILLION barrels. Then the world got its biggest supply shock in modern history and instead of panic-buying like everyone else, China did the opposite. They stopped importing and started eating their own stockpile. Chinese crude imports collapsed from 11.6 million barrels a day to under 8 million - the lowest level since 2017. That single decision accounted for roughly 74% of the entire drop in global oil demand, according to JPMorgan. Sit with that number for a second. The world lost 14% of its crude supply. In 1973, OPEC cut off just 7% and the price exploded 134%. This shock was twice as large. But oil went the other way. WTI sits at $74 today. Because the world's largest buyer simply walked out of the store and lived off its pantry. THAT is the new OPEC. For 50 years we obsessed over the Saudis. We watched OPEC meetings like Fed meetings, parsing every production quota. Those days are ending and the most powerful swing force in oil is no longer a cartel that controls supply. It's one country that controls DEMAND. And demand is the harder lever. You can cheat on a production quota but you can't force a billion-barrel buyer to show up if it doesn't want to. Here's what this means for your money right now: China has capped the upside. As long as they're sitting on that hoard, they sell into every rally toward $100. No spike gets to run. The right tail is gone - stop dreaming about $150 oil. But they've also built the floor. Those reserves are draining fast. JPMorgan expects China back as a major buyer by August to start refilling. The US has to refill its own SPR, now at its lowest since 1990. Everyone has to restock at once. You don't get $100 oil - China sells it to you. You don't get $50 oil - China and everyone else has to come back and buy it. You get a range. And right now we're sitting at the bottom of it. Crude is parked on its 200-day moving average. Retail traders are positioned near record short in Brent. Sentiment is in the gutter, RSI under 30. When the entire crowd leans the same way off the same wrong assumption, I want the other side of that trade. If I had to bet the next $10 or $15 move in crude, I'm betting higher. Because the most important player in the oil market already told you exactly what it's going to do. The Saudis didn't break OPEC. China did - by building a reserve nobody could see and refusing to spend it when it mattered most.

George Noble

58,527 views • 3 months ago

TWO THINGS WHICH ARE NOT TRUE: - Trump has snatched the world’s biggest oil reserve! - And cut China off from its top energy source! That’s what the world is being told – but neither is true, oil analysts said this week. In the summer of 2024, China GUESSED that the US would invade or "regime change" Venezuela and started dramatically lifting its purchases of oil from that country. It then further diversified its suppliers to have multiple oil sources. (Details in video.) As a result, Trump's latest move will have "no effect" on China's economy, western analysts say. . WORLD'S BIGGEST RESERVE? Furthermore, a number of analysts say that the claim that Venezuela has the world's biggest proven oil reserves is unlikely to be true. It comes from claims made by the exact same members of the Venezuelan government that the west keeps criticizing. Rather than 300 billion barrels of oil, the real number is more likely just one third of that, several specialists say. (See video for details and estimates.) And what oil the country does have is thick, heavy, tar-like and increasingly unwanted in the US and elsewhere. Saudi Arabia even cancelled its plans for a heavy oil processing plant. So that's what Trump is left with. And that's at a time when the world is transiting away from fossil fuels towards clean energy, renewable resources, and safe, modular nuclear power plants. . THE IMPLICATIONS From Trump's point of view, the Venezuela operation shows that the U.S. has LOTS of guns and helicopters and CIA agents and soldiers and stuff and can do anything it likes, whenever it likes, wherever it likes, without regard to morality or the rule of law. From the rest of the world's point of view, THAT is the problem.

Nury Vittachi

65,795 views • 8 months ago

WHY CRUDE IS RALLYING: CHINA IS BUYING THE MARGIN: OIL IS NOW A 100% PROFIT MACHINE Veteran commodity trader Jeff Currie says the oil rally is not a mystery. China started buying crude again for one reason: profit. Buy cheap barrels. Sell expensive diesel and gasoline. That bid is what is lifting the market now. THE REAL SIGNAL ➡️ “Nobody consumes oil,” Currie says. “They consume diesel and gasoline.” The headline barrel around $90 to $94 is the noise. The product barrel is the signal. In his telling, diesel was running near $189 while crude looked “cheap.” THE CHINA TRADE ➡️ China saw a crack near $106 to $107 a barrel and went after it. Buy oil near $90. Sell the product at a profit that Currie calls roughly 100% on the barrel. Why would you not? ➡️ “The Chinese are going, hey, we’re taking advantage of this.” They were not exporting product the same way. Then the margin exploded. Now they are buying crude they can barely find. That scramble is putting a bid under oil. THE MARKET PROOF ➡️ Russian ESPO crude into China was trading at a $7 premium to Brent. That is not a soft bid. That is China paying up for barrels that feed the product machine. Currie says look at price action, not talking-point flow numbers. The spread itself is the tell. WHAT COMES NEXT ➡️ He thinks the fat diesel crack starts to leak back into crude. China chasing those barrels is part of why. His trade framing is simple: long the crude, short the crack, as the profit gets redistributed into the oil price. THE BOTTOM LINE Oil is rising now because China is buying the margin, not because the world suddenly “needs more oil.” Cheap crude plus a $107 product spread is a profit machine. That machine is running. #JeffCurrie #ChinaOil #DieselCrack #CrudeRally #OilPrices #HardAssets #EnergyMarkets #ChinaOil #DieselCrack HT: YouTube David Lin

Mark

83,478 views • 23 days ago