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The Einstein Test for AGI. Vishal Misra: “You take an LLM and train it on pre-1916 physics and see if it can come up with the theory of relativity.” “If it does, then we have AGI.” “It’s a high bar, but we should have high bars.” “At the time...

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.Naval: Every human is a lottery ticket bet on the future of the species. One of the things that you really learn when you read David Deutsch’s theories and you authenticate them for yourself is you realize humans are universal explainers. That means everything that we know in the universe follows the laws of physics, and there’s no reason to believe otherwise. If you think otherwise, then please present your better theory that explains the world. If you can’t do that, then you have to go with the laws of physics. Well, the laws of physics are completely computable. They can fit inside a Turing machine or computer, and a computer can simulate the laws of physics with arbitrary accuracy, limited only by the specific power of that computer. If you increase the power of that computer, you can simulate them more accurately. So humans already simulate—in our minds we simulate—and through our computers we simulate the weather, we simulate quasars, we even simulate human systems. We simulate the economy. We simulate all kinds of things. So anything that can be understood, we can understand in our minds. This is something the AGI people get wrong when they talk about superintelligence. There is nothing out there that can understand something fundamentally that we can’t understand. It might be faster at it, it might have more compute, it might have more memory, but there’s no concept that it can understand that we can’t ourselves understand. So we are maximal universal explainers. That means every human is capable of unbounded creativity. Anyone could be the next Einstein or Fermi or Elon Musk or Jeff Bezos or Jonas Salk or whatever. So we can create anything. And if we can create anything, every human is a lottery ticket bet on the future of the species.

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Bob Lazar allegedly watched people fly a UFO at Area 51. “They knew how to fly it.” “The craft had a corona discharge glow on the bottom and lifted off silently up into the sky … ” And it had one shocking, anomalous effect that still perplexes him to this day: As Lazar watched, his supervisor Dennis Mariani told him to go stand directly underneath the craft. “I walked out underneath it and … I looked up, and I couldn’t see the craft.” “I thought it flew away.” “Then he said to come back, and I walked back.” “I see the edge of the craft.” “If you move, you can see it, and if you walk underneath it, you can’t.” “So you can clearly see it’s bending the light.” “You can see the sky above the craft, so you can see that it’s in its little envelope.” Lazar was also convinced that someone was actually inside the craft as it flew. “I did notice there was a … VHF radio.” “And they’re in communication.” “It made me almost positive that there was somebody in the craft.” He heard a voice coming “from the VHF radio, but presumably coming from the craft.” “They must have had some instrumentation set up in the craft, because he was monitoring something.” “I was stuck on the fact that, how is a radio wave of getting into the craft?” “This doesn’t even make any sense.” “It should be distorted by the gravity wave going around it.” “Clearly, they’ve had a lot of time with this craft already.” “It could have been decades for all I know.” “They knew how to fly it.” “These guys were somewhat proficient with it.” Jesse Michels asked Lazar if that means that we actually have “alien reproduction vehicles, or UFOs that humans can fly?” Lazar: “I do not think so, no.” Michels: “So you think we can test these things and use them in rudimentary ways, but we don’t understand how they work?” Lazar: “It’s like the analogy … you can go back to the 1800s and drop off a motorcycle with the keys in it.” “If you tinker with it long enough, someone’s gonna turn the key and it’s gonna start.” “Eventually … they’ll become proficient at driving it.” “But when it runs out of fuel, we’re done.” “And … they can’t even make that plastic fender.” “I think that’s where we are [with UFOs].” “We had some knowledge of that, but I think if we had developed that technology, we would’ve absolutely already seen it.” Jesse Michels American Alchemy

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The smartest man in AI just exposed the whole AGI narrative as a LIE. And he used a physics problem from 1905 to prove it. His name is Demis Hassabis. He runs Google DeepMind, and won the Nobel Prize for using AI to crack a problem in biology that had stumped scientists for 50 years. Almost nobody in this industry has a track record like his. He went on the NothingButTech podcast and called out the biggest lie in AI right now: Right now the loudest voices in AI are telling you that AGI is basically here. OpenAI has literally defined AGI as a system that can outperform humans at most "economically valuable work." In other words, if it replaces enough jobs, we have arrived. Hassabis thinks that bar is a joke. He said real general intelligence has to do what the human brain can do, because the brain is the only proof we have that this kind of intelligence is even possible. He called that "a higher bar than just being able to do some useful economic work," which is about as close as a polite British Nobel laureate gets to calling his rivals out. Then he gave the actual test: Today's AI has read everything humans have ever written, including the theory of relativity. So when it explains relativity back to you, it's repeating an answer that already exists. That's not intelligence. So Hassabis proposed a test that makes memorization impossible. Train an AI on only what humanity knew in 1901, four years BEFORE Einstein published relativity. Then ask it to come up with relativity on its own. It can't look up the answer, because in 1901 the answer doesn't exist yet. The only way to pass is to do what Einstein actually did: Take the same physics everyone else had and reason its way to an idea no human had ever had. Hassabis says not a single AI today can, no matter how much it has memorized. Which means what we keep calling "almost AGI" is really just the best librarian in history. It can find any answer that already exists but it cannot create one that doesn't. His second version is even sharper: AlphaGo, the system his own team built, famously invented a brand new move that no human had played in 2,000 years of the game. Everyone called it genius but Hassabis says that still is not the bar. The real test is not whether an AI can invent a new move inside Go, it is whether an AI could INVENT a game as deep and as beautiful as Go in the first place. No model that exists today can do it. The people telling you AGI has already arrived are the same people raising hundreds of billions of dollars on that exact promise. The valuations only work if the finish line is right in front of us. So the finish line keeps getting dragged closer, and AGI keeps getting quietly redefined down to "does useful work," until the products they already sell happen to qualify. Hassabis has nothing to prove and nothing to sell you. He already won the Nobel, and he is telling you the machines still cannot do the one thing that would make them genuinely intelligent, which is have a truly original idea. To be fair to him, he is not a pessimist about it. He believes real AGI IS coming, and he is spending his life building it. He just refuses to pretend it is already sitting in your phone. So the next time a founder tells you AGI is months away, remember that the one man in the room with a Nobel Prize built his test around Einstein, and admitted that nothing we have made can pass it. What do you think?

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