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The energy sector has been getting a boost from AI, with an extra 94 gigawatts forecast to be needed by 2030 to power all these data centers. But one long-time utilities analyst is calling out the boom as an infrastructure overbuild. Andy DeVries, head of investment grade credit and...

23,498 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten •via X (Twitter)

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In the next 15 years, data centers are expected to add an additional $160 billion to grid costs in the US Estimate say electricity rates for average households will spike by as much as 70% Data centers are projected to triple their share of US electricity demand in the next few years The main driver is the explosive growth of data centers built by Big Tech companies like Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, Google, OpenAI and more to power artificial intelligence Places like Northern Virginia already has over 200 data centers with massive new ones planned. Utilities are striking secret proprietary deals with Big Tech companies. These are hidden behind NDAs that shift much of the infrastructure costs onto regular residential customers Just in the PJM energy market of 13 states covering 65 million people, data centers were responsible for 63% of last year’s record 800% spike in capacity prices (This is INSANE) Residential customers in places like Virginia and Louisiana are being forced to subsidize billions in new power plants and grid upgrades for data centers. An Examples of this is in Louisiana, Meta’s data center deal leaves the public potentially on the hook for half or more of a $3–4 billion power plant Again, without major policy changes, average household electricity bills could rise by up to 70% over the next 15 years due to data center demand. There is only one real way we can stop this, we must create a separate customer class for data centers Maryland and Oregon have already passed laws doing this Forces data centers to pay for the specific infrastructure they need instead of spreading the costs to everyone else. More states need to do the same Ban secret sweetheart deals Require full public disclosure of all contracts between utilities and Big Tech Prohibit deals where data centers pay below the actual cost of service Make data centers pay the full cost of new power plants and grid upgrades Change regulations so utilities cannot socialize the cost of data-center-driven infrastructure to residential and small business ratepayers This needs to be done immediately

Wall Street Apes

57,720 Aufrufe • vor 1 Monat

"The limiting factor for AI deployment is fundamentally electrical power." That was Elon Musk in a conversation with Larry Fink during his first-ever appearance at Davos. And it's the most honest thing anyone in Big Tech has said in a while. Forget the hype about superintelligence and robots. Forget the promises about productivity gains that CFOs still can't measure. The bottleneck is power. And that bottleneck is very real. Here's why & how to position yourself to make the most out of this: We're producing more chips than we can turn on. AI chip production is increasing exponentially. US electricity generation is growing 3-4% annually. The math doesn't work. US data center power demand is expected to hit 75.8 gigawatts in 2026, up from 61.8 gigawatts in 2025. By 2030, it could reach 134 gigawatts. The largest US grid operator, PJM, expects to add 31 gigawatts of data center load over the next five years. But only 28 gigawatts of new generation capacity is planned. The deficit is already here. Residential electricity rates near data centers have jumped as much as 267% compared to five years ago. Regular Americans are subsidizing Silicon Valley's power consumption. Whether AI delivers on its big promises or not, the electricity bills are coming due right now. Elon made another point that deserves attention: China is solving the energy problem while America talks about AI miracles. He noted China's solar deployment is "tremendous." And that's an understatement. I verified the numbers. They're insane: China installed 275 gigawatts of solar capacity in the first 11 months of 2025. That's more than the ENTIRE installed solar capacity of the United States. In May 2025 alone, China added 93 gigawatts. Roughly 100 panels every second. For the first time in history, a single country surpassed 1,000 gigawatts of total solar capacity. China added more solar in one month than America has built in its entire history... But this ISN'T about climate policy. It's about strategic positioning. China understands something Wall Street is ignoring: whoever controls the energy infrastructure controls the next era of computing. While American investors chase the latest AI stock, China is building the power grid that will actually run the technology. My take: The data center buildout will fall short of expectations. Big Tech wants trillions in infrastructure. The grid can't deliver it. Not at this pace. Not with 3-4% annual electricity growth against exponential demand projections. Something has to give. Either the buildout slows dramatically, or electricity prices spike to levels that destroy the economics of the entire AI story. The AI trade has been built on the assumption that infrastructure will materialize to meet demand. That assumption is looking increasingly shaky. BUT the companies selling power to Big Tech win either way. Scarcity means pricing power. Utilities don't need AI to cure cancer. They just need hyperscalers to keep signing power agreements. And they are. Microsoft, Amazon, Meta, and Alphabet spent ~$350B in 2025 on data centers. That money flows to utilities and grid infrastructure whether AI changes the world or not. US utilities are forecasting a ~6% jump in capital expenditures to $228B in 2026. Cumulative utility capex is expected to surpass $1.1T through 2029. Dominion Energy is investing $50B through 2029, projecting 5-7% annual earnings growth. Entergy plans $41B between 2026 and 2029, targeting more than 8% compound annual earnings growth. These aren't speculative bets on AI changing everything... They're regulated utilities with contracted demand and predictable cash flows. So beware the AI story. The productivity miracle remains unproven. The physical constraints are becoming impossible to ignore. But the picks-and-shovels play? THAT'S where the smart money is looking. The hyperscalers have to pay their electricity bills. I'd rather own the companies collecting them.

George Noble

23,931 Aufrufe • vor 5 Monaten