Video wird geladen...

Video konnte nicht geladen werden

Zur Startseite

The internal Supernova Multiversᕽ upgrade’s block time finalization average is an incredible 88ms! I’m really looking forward to seeing it on the mainnet, and ideally, achieving sub-300ms or even 200ms in a real-world environment ? ⏱️ L1 BLOCK FINALITY (ms) — REAL WORLD Blockchain | Finality (ms) ------------------|---------------- MultiversX...

17,291 Aufrufe • vor 9 Monaten •via X (Twitter)

0 Kommentare

Keine Kommentare verfügbar

Kommentare vom Original-Post werden hier angezeigt

Ähnliche Videos

I almost quit crypto over one weekend. Turned $2,000 into $310 chasing a 400% APY farm, then watched my exchange freeze withdrawals for four days straight with zero explanation. Here's the full story, and the infrastructure that actually fixed it. The mistake wasn't bad luck, I aped in because a group chat was hyping it, no check on whether the yield was backed by anything real. $2K to $310 in 4 days, straight emissions-funded farm collapse. Then my CEX froze withdrawals for "maintenance." My money, someone else's permission. That one stung more than the loss, custody is a choice you're making every day you don't think about it. Found the fix the least glamorous way possible: doom-scrolling X after a bad week. A thread on Xeffy stopped my thumb, market-neutral vaults, real yield from actual trading strategy instead of emissions. Almost scrolled past it too. Digging into Xeffy led me to what it's built on: XPHERE's Mainnet. It runs a dual-chain architecture, two chains, each doing one job, instead of one chain trying to do everything. Main Chain: PBFT-based consensus (XPBFT), handles block generation and transaction finality, 1-second finality, 5,000+ TPS, fully EVM compatible so existing Ethereum contracts/DApps port over without a rewrite. Proof Chain: runs on xpHash, Xphere's own PoW algorithm. It doesn't touch transactions, its only job is electing validators through real computational work, so block production stays decentralized instead of resting on a small staked-in elite. Split the jobs, get both benefits: PBFT gives you the speed a real app needs, PoW gives you the security speed-focused chains usually sacrifice. That's the trilemma trade-off this is actually trying to close. Back to the fixes: Xeffy gave me institutional-grade vaults and tokenized RWA exposure, yield from a strategy actually running, not new deposits paying old ones. XAX became where I trade now, self-custody by design, my keys, my wallet, no support ticket standing between me and my funds during a "maintenance window." Pixie Pocket is the boring-in-a-good-way part, everyday wallet, built-in rewards, doesn't need a finance degree to open. Even $XP itself is built deflationary, roughly 26% of supply reduced annually, 50% of every transaction fee burned permanently. The chain that fixed my "everything's inflating away" problem is structured against its own inflation too. I didn't quit. I just found infrastructure that didn't need me to trust a group chat, an exchange's "maintenance" window, or blind hope. Full story in the video above. #XPHERE #XphereMainnet XPHERE Xeffy XAX Xeffy Pixie Pocket

Alexander Grown

13,184 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

Here's why $NEAR is a no-brainer in 2025 👇 Everybody loves NEAR Protocol and there is a reason for that (or many). Near is well-positioned to be one of the leading blockchain ecosystems this year. Let’s explore the “whys”. TIMESTAMPS Quick Bio – 00:00:15 Inflation Reduction Proposal – 00:00:43 Technically Speaking – 00:02:40 Near Intents – 00:03:37 Chain Signatures and AI – 00:04:39 Decentralization and DeFi – 00:05:59 I have my Near account since March 2023, but it has been inactive for a while, as I was focused on other stuff. However, the recent inflation halving proposal by HOT DAO (HOT Protocol 🔥) and LiNEAR (LiNEAR Protocol) brought my eyes back to the project and I really like what I’m seeing. So, here’s my first point. If this proposal passes, NEAR could lead the way in what appears to be a market trend of improving the tokenomics, as more and more experts realize holders have been overpaying for these networks' security, with a too high supply inflation. Solana tried something similar, but the proposal was rejected. In my opinion, validators voting favorably to that show a commitment to the chain for the long term. On the other hand, voting against it signals a short-term vision focused on milking the emissions as much as possible, at the ecosystem’s expense. The voting currently goes with 28% “YEA” votes, needing 66.76% to pass. Most of the validators who already cast their votes went with the yes. 2pilot, avb, openshards, qbit, sicmundus, fox, and intear are, so far, the only seven who voted “NAY”. This proposal has the vocal support of most influential figures in the Near ecosystem, including the Near Foundation (NEAR Foundation), led by Illia (root.near) (🇺🇦, ⋈), which makes me believe it will pass and show the power of the halving in getting the market’s attention and presenting a huge investment asymmetry for the native token right now. Is this everything I like about NEAR? Definitely not. This is just what got me looking at it again, just to discover a (very much) thriving ecosystem, full of interesting things happening at the same time. I’ll mention a few, but there is (much) more. Technically speaking, Near is a high-performance blockchain, with really low fees and one of the fastest finalities, with 600ms block time and approximately 1.8s finality. It also has my favorite architecture for internet-scale scalability, using sharding, while keeping a high decentralization standard. As a learning programmer, Near also has one of the best dev experiences (in my limited opinion). The documentation is clear, has a logical journey, presenting from the basic anatomy in details to more complex SDKs and tools. I’m also in love with the near-cli-rs. A command line interface program written in Rust for seamless interaction with the Near blockchain. Allowing wallet creation, chain query, sending transactions, staking, smart contract calls, and more. Near Intents. This was the second thing to get my attention, while studying the project again, and it sets a whole new standard for blockchain interactions, especially cross-chain. Basically, users can declare an intention (for example, swap Ethereum-USDT to Bitcoin) and a network of solvers, running on Near, will find the best path to accomplish this task. We recently saw an impressive 465k-worth swap happening in exactly this example, paying 0.55% of trading fees to thorswap.near and swapkit.near. According to a Dune Dashboard, the protocol accumulates nearly $400 million in volume since its launch not long ago, in November 2024. *obs.: half this volume was achieved in the last month. Massive! Near Intents is possible due to two other very interesting things: (i) Chain abstraction, and (ii) a solid AI infrastructure. Chain abstraction (via Chain Signatures) is a powerful interoperability feature, allowing Near to friendly connect different blockchains as if they were part of a single network. Users and devs benefit from wallet, address, fees, and cross-chain bridges abstractions - not even noticing they are interacting with multiple chains. One wallet that powers everything. Powered by Near. On AI, Near is just built differently. Not for the hype, but for the solution. The team has been looking for AI solutions much before the ChatGPT fever. Actually, they started as an AI company, pivoting to blockchain later. So, being one of the most promising networks for the growing AI economy was just the natural path to follow. There is an extensive and super complete research piece on that topic, recently published by Reflexivity Research (Reflexivity Research) on July 1st. It presents Near as an AI-optimized blockchain, covering AITP, Shade Agents, x402, Near Intents, and more. Definitely worth the reading. Wrapping up this content with one more aspect that really matters to me is how Near remains truthful to decentralization, data ownership, censorship-resistance and open-source primitives that have been increasingly abandoned by other key players. A simple example of that is how the Near Foundation decided to deprecate its public APIs, encouraging the surge of a more decentralized and competitive market of SaaS projects, with a highlight to Lava Network, that recently appeared in my timeline talking about that. DeFi is also huge on Near, leveraging all the previous properties I mentioned, creating a truly decentralized liquidity pool via Rhea Finance, connected with other chains like BTC, Ethereum, ZCash, and more. All that contributes to Near having the second-largest monthly active addresses, with nearly 50 million, only losing to Solana’s nearly 90 million. In the meantime, NEAR, the token, is not even at the 30rd position by market cap. Crazy stuff. To (finally) wrap it up, I also want to mention Near’s consensus decentralization. While having a low node-count, the network has a Nakamoto Coefficient of 11, which is not bad at all. Surely, there is still room for improvement, which is possible as becoming a validator is accessible staking and hardware-wise. If you liked this content, make sure to click the like bottom and share it around. Follow me on X or subscribe to my YouTube channel, both at vinibarbosabr. See ya!

Vini B |「 thecoding 」

40,183 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

this guy built an ai-girl pipeline using real-time face filters, and d2c brands now pay him $2,000 per ugc video he got tired of watching brands burn $4,000 on a single creator who takes 2 weeks to deliver one angle, so he built a setup that runs photoreal ai girls live from his own webcam, no actresses, no studios, no makeup artists his monthly revenue hit $89,000 last month from a network of 7 ai personas across tiktok and instagram. the average ugc creator caps at $6k juggling 4 brand deals the breakdown: > hardware is the moat, but most people butcher the setup in the first frame. face mesh locked at 60fps with zero artifacting > persona comes first, mess this up and nothing saves it: name, backstory, voice tone, niche before a single clip is shot > face selection is not random. you a/b test features (eye spacing, jawline, hair contrast) because some faces convert better in 9:16 > you're picking who your audience trusts, not who looks cool. that's targeting baked into bone structure > real-time physics run before the script, this is what kills the uncanny valley that destroys watch time in 2 seconds > the filter has to survive the strap of a tank top, the texture of a knit cardigan, the hair flick > batching is the move 96% skip: one performance, multiple personas, three platforms > the system pushes 12 pieces before lunch while brands test 2 creators a week and wonder why their cpa sits at $94 the economics: each video costs $4 in compute, sells for $1,500 to $3,000, takes 14 minutes to produce. that's a 37,500% margin, while ugc agencies pay creators $400-800 per clip and net $200 after revisions one supplement brand generated 14 variants with 7 personas in 4 hours and found a winner in 36 hours without flying a creator to la. they were paying $1,200 per ugc video and burning $6,000/week on content that didn't scale. now they spend $210 for 14 variants and their cpa dropped from $89 to $27 the avatars hold real products, warm window light on the persona, cold neon on the operator, mouth shapes sync to consonants not just vowels just a webcam, a tracked face, and the discipline to move enough that the filter never has a chance to break

Kiyoro

31,137 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

77 Reasons Why I’ve Invested Over $8,000,000+ in MultiversX (EGLD) and Why EGLD Will Crush It in 2025 (My Investment Thesis). I publicly shared my portfolio on X. EGLD is A) Better than BTC B) Everything that ETH wants to be C) The GameStop of Crypto 1. EGLD is verifiably the most scalable (theoretically unlimited) L1 chain in the world, theoretically capable of over 10 million TPS (thanks to adaptive state sharding). 2. e-Gold is digital gold. It has the best tokenomics among all L1s, similarly scarce to BTC, with a maximum supply of 31.4 million coins. Currently, 27.68 million coins are in circulation. 3. EGLD will be the most decentralized cryptocurrency in the world thanks to sharding and minimal hardware requirements for running nodes. It’s already second only to Ethereum with 3,618 validator nodes. 4. EGLD has extremely low fees, around ~$0.002 per transaction. 5. EGLD is extremely secure. No wallet drains like on ETH/SOL; assets are owned natively (not via a smart contract). There is no MEV risk (front-running bots). 6. EGLD is the only chain in the world with an on-chain Guardian (two-phase verification), making it impossible for a hacker to steal your funds—even if they have your private keys (seed phrase). 7. EGLD is carbon-neutral and eco-friendly, not wasting energy like BTC and other PoW chains. It’s exceptionally efficient, scalable, global, and sustainable. 8. EGLD has the best UX in crypto. Download the xPortal wallet—it’s like discovering Apple in Web3. The interface is simple, flawless, and you barely realize you’re using crypto. Instead of addresses, you use HeroTags. The app features all dApps, everything runs smoothly, and the visuals are beautifully designed. The explorer, web wallet, etc. follow the same high-quality user experience. 9. EGLD supports native assets, unlike Ethereum, for example. 10. EGLD is the first chain to fully implement horizontal (theoretically unlimited) sharding without compromising on decentralization—unlike Solana and others that attempt vertical scaling, leading to multiple network downtimes (11+ times) and huge hardware demands for validators, ultimately harming decentralization. 11. EGLD makes setting up a validator agency extremely easy. Even complete IT beginners can do it. The UX and documentation are superb. I personally set up the “EGLDSqueeze” agency in about 30 minutes. Managing it is straightforward via the web wallet, which feels like managing a Facebook page. This simplifies decentralization enormously. 12. EGLD allows literally anyone (even your grandma) to participate in decentralization, since nodes can run on a Raspberry Pi or a relatively affordable phone. Imagine millions of people worldwide securing the network, validating transactions without even knowing it. This can’t be done with BTC, where setting up profitable mining operations is prohibitively expensive. 13. WASM-Based Virtual Machine: You can write smart contracts in your favorite language, compile them, and run them via the fastest VM in the world. 14. EGLD has been tested at an incredible 263,000 TPS using its sharding mechanism and low hardware requirements. Allegedly, by mid-next year (April), they’ll demonstrate 1,000,000 TPS. (For context: Mastercard handles around 5,000 TPS; BTC handles 5–7 TPS.) 15. EGLD is currently the most advanced L1 in terms of scalability, security, decentralization, UX, eco-friendliness, and tokenomics. It’s the only chain that has genuinely solved the Blockchain Trilemma and is ready to onboard 1 billion people into crypto—users who won’t even realize they’re interacting with crypto. 16. EGLD is perfectly positioned for AI projects—AI agents, AI tools, or a so-called “Truth Machine” that monitors other AIs on-chain, documenting what’s true and comparing different AI outputs (some of which may be censored or biased), ensuring people don’t get confused or scammed in an AI-driven world. 17. The EGLD team is the hardest-working team I’ve ever encountered. I had the honor of meeting many of them personally, and can attest that their pace—even during a bear market—is extraordinary. 18. EGLD’s development team is exceptionally active on GitHub, continually improving their network and actively committing code. 19. EGLD plans to introduce an update reducing block time to 600ms (down from ~6 seconds), which would make the chain essentially unrivaled. 20. EGLD is effectively the only usable L1 in Europe, and the team has direct connections within the EU government—extremely bullish for the project. 21. EGLD provides top-tier on-chain governance not only for the MultiversX (EGLD) protocol but also for DeFi projects (e.g., xExchange, MEX). 22. EGLD plans to expand to the US, likely opening offices in Austin, Texas. This could put them in direct contact with Elon Musk (if it hasn’t happened already), as he’s involved with If he’s done his research, he’d discover there’s simply no better L1 worldwide. 23. EGLD solved fully implemented sharding, perfect tokenomics, and top-tier architecture with just $5M, whereas other chains failed to do so even with $100M+. The second-best sharding network, NEAR, needed $100M, has worse tokenomics, and its sharding isn’t fully implemented yet. Its UX also doesn’t compare. Owning NEAR was like comparing a VW Golf R to a Porsche GT3—EGLD is the Porsche GT3. 24. According to Similarweb, EGLD has significantly high traffic relative to other chains with market caps 100x larger. The market cap vs. web traffic discrepancy is huge, which is a strong indicator of EGLD’s potential. 25. EGLD has the most active and dedicated community relative to its user base, with users who believe in the technology, have full faith in the team, and remain loyal despite price volatility—because they use the chain and know there’s nothing better. 26. Check other chains’ active user counts on X (Twitter) and compare it with the followers of EGLD’s founders and main network accounts, versus those with 30x, 50x, or 100x larger market caps. 27. Visit the MultiversX website to observe the futuristic design and presentation, then compare it to other chains that appear nearly a decade behind in design and branding. 28. EGLD hosts the xDay Global event, showcasing updates, new builders, projects in the ecosystem, and major announcements—similar to Apple’s Keynotes—delivered in a highly professional, goosebump-inducing atmosphere. The next event is in Korea, the second-biggest crypto market after the US. Check out their previous xDay after-movie to see why this is extremely bullish. 29. EGLD is moving forward with plans for the first regulated, audited EU stablecoin under MiCa regulation, made possible by acquiring xMoney, which I view as a “Stripe” for crypto/fiat, offering everything from user solutions to merchant services—potentially the future of payments. 30. Greg Siourouni recently joined EGLD, having been an executive director at SUI Foundation. He’s now co-founder of xMoney Global. xMoney (formerly UTrust, with token UTK) is owned and founded by the MultiversX Labs team. A stablecoin might be introduced soon, which would be massively bullish given xMoney’s roadmap. They recently announced integrations with Binance Pay—both ways. 31. EGLD prioritizes user safety, believing it’s the only feasible approach once the network scales to serve a billion people—many of whom are retail users with little to no security awareness. 32. EGLD offers “Sovereign Chains,” letting you effectively clone their chain without heavy development, set up your own validators, and leverage their unlimited scalability. Any blockchain (ETH, BTC, SOL) struggling with scalability, decentralization, or security could run an ultra-fast, scalable, and secure L2 on EGLD’s Sovereign Chain, meeting top enterprise requirements. No one else has really done this. The Sovereign Chain demo achieved astonishing TPS and has an SDK. 33. No downtime since inception. 34. No shard takeover attacks have occurred. 35. Extremely fast—soon 600ms block time will be in place. 36. ESDTs – The best token standard available: fungible, non-fungible, semi-fungible, DeFi assets—everything is native and highly customizable. 37. Top-tier composability of assets and smart contracts. 38. Integrated DNS at protocol level with HeroTags (nicknames) instead of long addresses. 39. Asynchronous calls are supported. 40. Cross-shard transfers, execution, reverts, and calls are seamlessly integrated. 41. The best staking system in the space. Secure Proof of Stake (SPoS) is far more efficient than Proof of Work (PoW). 42. Built-in Delegation and Staking Provider system, with over 125K delegators. 43. Complete support for liquid staked assets, fostering decentralization rather than centralization. 44. TransferRoles for ESDT and other advanced operations. 45. Composable tasks on-chain for more sophisticated DeFi workflows. 46. MultiTransfer and asset execution within one transaction. 47. Re-entrancy protection is built-in by design. 48. Storage for ESDT assets goes beyond a linear approach, optimizing performance. 49. No integer overflows thanks to integrated safeMath operations. 50. Integrated crypto opcodes in the VM, enhancing security and performance. 51. Support for BigFloats, BigInts, and BigDecimals, enabling advanced financial calculations on-chain. 52. No sandwich attacks, plus front-running and MEV protection. 53. Relayed Transactions, simplifying user interactions and fees. 54. Smart Accounts featuring data tries and multiple built-in functions. 55. Generalized Paymaster solutions, enabling flexible fee models. 56. Subscriptions for recurring or automated on-chain payments. 57. Web2-like usability with Web3 functionality, bridging mainstream adoption. 58. StakingV4 for improved decentralization. 59. Enhanced MEV protection rolling out to safeguard users. 60. Parallel execution is coming soon, boosting throughput. 61. 1 million TPS is on the roadmap, targeted for demonstration. 62. 600ms block time is also coming soon. 63. Reduced cross-shard processing is planned to improve efficiency. 64. ZK everywhere (PI²): “prove everything” approach is coming. 65. AsyncV3 is in development for more complex cross-contract interactions. 66. Scalability enhancements for Merkle Tries or a new data model are being explored. 67. Linear storage on the VM is forthcoming. 68. A dynamic language interpreter at the VM is also planned. 69. Rumors suggest that MultiversX (EGLD) is building a “Truth Machine” on their L1—an essential, game-changing tool for AI verification and societal impact. 70. The entire team features individuals with PhDs in mathematics and physics, and many are former engineers at Google, IBM, and similar companies. 71. Over 56% of the network’s supply is staked, showcasing strong community involvement. 72. More than 6,772,347 accounts have been created on the network. 73. A total of 476,627,710 transactions have been processed on-chain without any outages or hacks. 74. EGLD has built a massive ecosystem over time. While not as numerous in project count as Solana, its market cap is ~100x smaller, yet it has far superior tokenomics and technology. The projects that do exist, like Hatom Protocol, are top-tier in UX, security, and advanced features. Hatom will soon introduce USH, a truly high-quality, decentralized stablecoin. 75. On competing chains, automated transactions aren’t easily or cheaply executed, whereas on MultiversX, tools like let you do this for free (with near-zero fees). 76. No other chain combines such a strong team and long-term vision where every product meets extreme security and UX standards like MultiversX does. This is why I see it as the “next Apple” in Web3. 77. MultiversX has a new CMO – Adam Bates, a former CMO at the Cardano Foundation. He was behind the success of Cardano’s huge marketing campaign and has a very good relationship with Charles Hoskinson. Thanks to him, Beniamin Mincu (the founder of MultiversX) was likely introduced, and now they will probably discuss how both blockchains can help each other, as well as any other potential collaborations we don’t yet know about. This is also extremely bullish. #EGLD is undeniably the most Scalable, Advanced, Secure, and User-friendly L1 supercomputer ever created. It’s built to SHAPE THE FUTURE. 1) 2) 3) 4) 5) 27/6/2024 - EGLDSqueeze - SUMMARY: HERE IS NO 2ND BEST. EGLD IS ONLY ONE BLOCKCHAIN THAT CAN RULE THEM ALL. ✅ UNLIMITED SCALING ✅ SCARCE AS BTC ✅ PROGRAMMABLE AS ETH ✅ NO DOWNTIME AS SOL ✅ UI/UX OF Apple ✅ SHARDING DONE BEFORE NEAR & TON ✅ BEST WALLET xPortal WITH GUARDIAN Price prediction (NFA|DYOR): My reasoning is that the real market cap as of December 23, 2024...if we take into account the value of other cryptocurrencies such as BTC, SOL, ETH, AVAX, NEAR, TON, Cardano, BNB, XRP, and so forth, plus the existence of meme coins with valuations above 20 billion USD, or even games nobody plays anymore that still have valuations above 800 million shows that EGLD’s current market cap of approximately 942 million USD is incredibly low. From a technological standpoint, user experience, and other relevant aspects, compared to SOL, NEAR, TON, AVAX, and other L1 protocols, EGLD’s market cap should realistically be around 100 billion USD. Therefore, my prediction and investment thesis is a minimum of a 100x increase from its current price (+-SOL marketcap). MultiversX is ready to onboard 1 billion people to the blockchain. From a long-term perspective, it could even reach a market cap of 1 trillion USD, which is roughly half of where BTC is right now. That would be approximately a 1060x gain from the current market cap. 1 EGLD (MultiversX) is for $34 (only 31.4M max supply) think about this. Not financial advice. Again. There is no 2nd best L1. Position yourself where the puck is going, then wait at the goal until the goal gets there Apes together, strong. Ape alone, weak. We Don't Worry. We Just Win. Shape The Future

Daniel Veroc

50,587 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

The multi-leader blockchain endgame: competitive information inclusion as a self-reinforcing mechanism for global price discovery - how we got here, and why Aptos is leading the charge Onchain trading is the killer app In the nine years since the launch of programmable transactions on the Ethereum blockchain, onchain trading has revealed itself as the killer use case for blockchains: onchain listings, volume, and total value locked are all growing with no signs of slowing down, due to the censorship-resistant, permissionless, 24/7/365 qualities afforded by decentralized (DeFi) systems. Monolithic parallelism is key In 2020 Solana was first to market with monolithic, parallel execution (as opposed sharded execution which offers parallelism by partitioning global state into separate information silos), establishing a new design paradigm that raised the bar for throughput and latency: put all of the information in one replicated state machine and make it run as fast as possible. This design produces a single, global hub for activity, liquidity, and token launches, a kind of financial data whiteboard in the sky, where anyone can come and trade at any time with everybody else who has plugged into the system. DEXes are becoming more competitive Historically decentralized systems have been juxtaposed with centralized ones since the latter eliminates the overhead associated with distributed systems coordination. And yet despite this overhead, Solana as a decentralized exchange (DEX) is still pulling in billions of trading volume per day, exceeding that of all but the largest centralized crypto exchanges (CEXs), that simply can't compete with the giant DEX in the sky on token listings or fees. After all, CEXs have to pay for server space, salaries, and lawyers, while a DEX outsources everything. The colocation arms race The one place where CEXs have an advantage over DEXs is on end-to-end latency for colocation applications, or in other words: someone sets up a trading bot in the same data center as the exchange, and their trades get to the exchange faster than everyone else's. When there is only one data ingestion point the fastest trader wins, and after the arms race has played out everyone ends up huddling around the trading hub, effectively cutting off the rest of the world from playing the latency trading game. This is the model that traditional securities exchanges like the Nasdaq or the NYSE 🏛 employ, and because they own the server they can effectively charge whatever they want for access to it. The colocation arms race is also why L2s will probably never decentralize: running the sequencer is practically the same as running the NASDAQ, with the same monopoly on transaction fees collected from a nearby cluster of trading bots (I understand from conversations with Logan Jastremski that the Arbitrum arms race has already hit a Nash Equilibrium in Portland, Oregon). Colocation is a trap But once the colocation arms race has played out, trades become less about incorporating new information in the market and more about skimming off the top by spoofing all of the trades coming in from the other bots. High-frequency trading (HFT) bots located in the NYSE New Jersey data center, for example, are constantly placing buys and sell orders that they have no intention of executing, just to spoof the other colocated bots who are playing the same adversarial game. Information inclusion, on the other hand, the synthesis of real-time world events into prices, takes a back seat because anyone who tries to include new information first needs to batch up their order and send it through a series of middlemen before it ultimately ends up on the exchange: you, I, or practically any other individual can not actually "trade on the NASDAQ", no, we have to express our intent to someone like Robinhood, who then sells our order flow to @CitadelSecurities, who then sends it to the exchange, oh and by the way it doesn't actually even "clear" or "settle" once it "executes" because for whatever reason the whole systems splits these things up and prevents them from happening instantaneously even though it's 2024 and we have computers. Onchain trading cuts out middlemen This whole mess is why we have onchain trading, and why it's starting to win: if you want a mainline to the exchange, without setting up a server, and you want to trade on a news event without getting immediately frontrun by an HFT bot that is sniffing out the trades of every other HFT bot who is easing in batched up order flow on their own terms, then you submit your order to a node in the blockchain and the information gets included in the price upon ingestion. Oh, and by the way the trade is actually fully complete: settled, cleared, reconciled, done, whatever you want to call it, because the people who build decentralized finance (DeFi) build it how it should actually work, not in a way that creates a million incumbents and charges exorbitant rents for access to the system. Onchain trading better for price discovery And the beautiful part about this is that even if a distributed system has more latency than a centralized system, DeFi still ends up incorporating more information into the price faster than centralized finance, because with DeFi the information gets included in the system as soon as it is submitted, not after it has been batched up and sent through a series of middlemen. The consensus mechanism of the blockchain disseminates the information around the world in the form of a price update, while the centralized exchange model requires information about the event to first get propagate to the region of the trading hub, then to get submitted to the colocation server. This means that in terms of global price discovery, onchain trading is strictly a better system because the entire consensus model is based around accelerated information propagation. Because price discovery is a global phenomenon, blockchains, which are global, are actually better than the centralized status quo, on a performance basis, not just from an ideological or convenience-based view. And it has to be multi-leader In practice, effective global information synthesis of information has an additional key requirement: multi-leader architecture. That is, in a single-leader blockchain like Solana, where one validator at a time has a monopoly on ordering transactions into blocks, for their duration as a leader they effectively function as a colocation server. This means that if the current leader is in New York, someone in Singapore who wants to trade on local news as soon as it breaks will still need to get their order all the way around the world to the leader, who is effectively serving as the chain's data ingestion point, before the order can start propagating through the network. But this is issue solved by the introduction of multiple distributed leaders, because then anyone with access to new information can submit their order to the leader closest to them, yielding faster information inclusion in the form of price updates. Multi-leader is also required for fair markets A multi-leader architecture is also required for fair markets, because in a single-leader system the leader has the power to censor transactions, reorder them to their advantage, or even replace transactions with copycats that extract maximum value by replacing the sender's address with their own. For example if someone wants to capture an arbitrage opportunity between two onchain DEXes, they'll need to submit a transaction to the leader and trust that the leader won't simply copy the transaction and submit it themselves. But when there are two or more leaders, users whose transactions are censored by one leader will simply work with a different leader the next time around, eventually cutting off transaction fee flow to the extractive leader. Beyond just strict inclusion, in a multi-leader architecture validators are also forced to compete with each other on latency, because the leader who is fastest at disseminating users' transactions across the network will over time gobble up the largest share of the order flow. Transparent priority fees are a must, or a private mempool will emerge But in order to make this work, a multi-leader architecture must also offer users the ability to pay priority fees AKA "tips" or "bribes" to move their transaction to the front of the line: if there is a $5 arbitrage opportunity onchain, users need to have assurance that they if they pay a 4.99 priority fee to take that arb, they will get priority over a different user who is only willing to tip 4.98. If the native blockchain system does not offer this fair market priority fee mechanism, then it is only a matter of time before one spontaneously emerges in the form of a private mempool like , which can create centralization pressures and undermine the integrity of the system as a whole. Competitive payment for order flow is the stable solution With the right architecture in place, the end result is a competitive environment where endpoints running maximum extractable value (MEV) bots compete with one to offer users the best price for their order flow. In other words, if a user wants to submit an order that can get sandwich attacked for as much as $2 of MEV, then the order should ultimately go to the endpoint bot that is willing to pay the user as much as $1.99 for the right to process their transaction. The price that the provider is willing to pay is ultimately a function of how much in priority fees they might need to pay to the current leader (0 they are the current one), but notably at each stage there is a competitive market for order flow, whether in the form of retail trader's orders, or priority fees among bots that might be forwarding orders to one of the leaders. AptosLabs is already building all this With a public mempool and transaction priority fees, Aptos additionally includes a pipelined architecture that already includes concurrent batching of transactions into blocks, with a single consensus leader who propagates the batched blocks out to the network. And the team is already researching running multiple instances of the consensus algorithm in parallel, yielding multiple consensus leaders who can compete with each other on latency and inclusion - just ask pranav | Shelby, Alexander Spiegelman, and Zekun Li. This means that block times can shrink as the number of consensus leaders grows, with each leader having its own geographical radius of inclusion beyond which it makes more sense to submit to a different leader. The starting point? Something like 60 ms blocks and 3 consensus leaders, partitioning the global information space into competitive and constantly-rotating regions of information inclusion. Messaging is important With concurrent pipelined transaction batching, a public mempool, priority fees, and a clear path to a multi-leader architecture, Aptos leads the industry in onchain trading infrastructure that can truly supplant the centralized colocation paradigm that has heretofore dominated global finance - by offering a truly superior product. And I am hopeful that this deep dive is the first step in communicating not how or that superior product is getting built, but what it means from a bigger picture perspective. If blockchains have found product market fit in anything, it is in trading, and the trading game can only be won by building the biggest, baddest, most high performance system that has as its north star a single, concrete goal: constantly reducing, ever lower toward zero, time time it takes to incorporate information from anywhere in the world into the global price discovery computer. Whoever does this, even 1 ms faster than the competitor, wins the price discovery game, as other blockchains are left in the dust, their DEXes arbed away to zero against the fastest chain on the block. And sure, the blockchain that can rise to this challenge can also handle useful things like payments, NFTs, or other solutions that benefit from permissionlessness and low gas costs, but I want to impress that at the core of this pursuit must be the urge to drive down information inclusion latency to the absolute minimum afforded by the laws of physics through a competitive, market-driven environment. I call on avery.apt 🇺🇸 , CTO of Aptos Labs, to lean in on this messaging, to make it clear that Aptos is here for this singular mission, to build the most performant price discovery engine in history, as a rallying call for alignment in development efforts across the ecosystem and broader industry. Where does this go? As the latencies drop, the spreads tighten, and the information inclusion increases with every incremental increase in network bandwidth, we can expect a new class of competing techno-financial hubs that aggregate around the world's largest information sources: New York, Washington DC, London, Tokyo, etc., commanding stake distribution commensurate with the density of information flow in these respective locales. With the right incentives in place, competing concurrent leaders will invest ever more in infrastructure to get their packets out to the network faster than the rest, yielding clusters of fiber optic cable around the world's financial hubs, neurons in the global financial brain connecting not just HFT firms to servers in their city, but connecting every city with every other city, to move pricing information across oceans and continents. And retail traders, who have been left out of the colocation game, will only benefit: this entire system gets faster, more inclusive, with tighter spreads and lower fees, and it is such an amazing opportunity to watch all of this unfold in real time. The future of blockchains is the future of trading, is the future of competitive information inclusion in real-time, is the future of truly unified global markets, because at the the core of this industry is a simple idea: connect the computers, and see where the incentives lead. They lead to this, and Aptos is leading the charge, because its tech is purpose-built for this exact purpose. So tell the world about it.

Alex Kahn

24,541 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

Robert Friedland (Robert Friedland) is one of the most important voices in Metals & Mining. When he speaks, we should listen. He recently gave a 40-minute speech on Green Energy, Electrification, Metal Scarcity, and more. Here are my notes from the talk 👇 WHAT DOES "ENERGY TRANSITION" MEAN? "You have a billion people that burn firewood to live. They have no access to electrical energy." "We're burning more coal and more oil today than in the history of the world." "We spent $4T putting up solar panels for hydrocarbons to still capture 83% of energy source." "You're not going to stop global warming by buying an electric car." ON ELECTRIC CARS & EV BATTERIES "With current lithium ion technology, the destruction we cause, the global warming gas we cause, we might as well sit on our chairs and do nothing." "You just bought your wife a coal-burning car by buying an EV." "The current generation of EV batteries will be toast in 2-3 years." "I would short every lithium company in the world." "We're going to kill the lithium hydroxide business over time." COMMON METALS VITAL FOR TRANSITION "If we're going to have a transition, we need common and abundant materials. We can't rely on things like nickel." "The batteries they're making now are low-grade lithium metal. You don't need nickel, cobalt, graphite, They're out the window." "You want batteries made out of common materials so billions of people can use it." WOMB TO TOMB EXAMINATION OF NET ZERO "Look at the whole system if you're trying to eliminate global warming." "The Chinese are saying 2060 and India is now saying 2070. What does that tell you?" "There's zero chance that the twelve major automakers will find enough nickel to make their batteries." "The amount of metal we need doesn't exist currently in a way that's green or sustainable. It's apparent to any readily intelligible person." "How can we stop burning coal and oil and not have an energy transition?" TWO COMPETING PARADIGMS "We have two competing tribes. One tribe says 'I want to save the world, I'm green, I need cobalt, nickel, platinum, or palladium'. The other tribe says 'Holy shit, the Army/Navy wants these metals for national defense.'" "The intensity of metal demand in conflict is beyond your wildest imagination. In WWI you needed a telescope to see the price of copper." "So we're heading to a world where both tribes have a strong demand for more metals. We're balkenizing the world into two camps and its tearing the global supply chains apart." A VERY DIFFICULT TIME "It does appear that the world is warming, and there's zero chance we'll reduce that. The question is how bad will it get?" "I was in CA recently, it was $6.20 per gallon. The average citizen is pissed off." "I agree with Jamie Dimon that this is the most dangerous time since I've been alive." "The Fed are idiots. They told us that inflation was over. And it's not even close." WE NEED TO REINVENT THE MINING INDUSTRY "First of all, we have to try to mine in the United States. No intelligent person has tried to do that in the last few generations." "Everything is blown out of proportion because mining is viewed as a bad thing." "We also have to determine what metals we actually need for the future. Which is copper." "Imagine you're plugging an EV w/ 1MW charger. Our grid is literally a 110 year old lady waiting to die. The Chinese tell me it will take $21T to rebuild the electrical grid." "Our grid is like balancing a pencil vertically on your palm. There's no storage there." "The symbol of the US, the bald eagle, is flying into offshore windmills. They're just chewing them up. Who wants to live near them? They're very low density." "At least real miners know how hard it is to actually find metals and mine it." ENERGY CONSUMPTION "A Google search requires 1,000 joules of electrical energy. You think its free, but its paid for by advertising." "You think the internet is green? You know how much energy it requires to use AI/ChatGPT? You think Bitcoin/crypto is green?" IMPORTANCE OF COPPER "I don't know if we need gold. But I do know we need copper. And we need it really badly." "Having said that, I'd rather there be gold in my copper. Because people will always want gold." "People are getting rid of their excess copper because they're de-stocking to reduce their interest cost. But we're nearing the end of de-stocking and paper selling." "This huge clash is coming between Army, Navy, Air Force and the Greening of the world economy. And the miners have an unbelievable burden to make that happen." "At the same time we need these metals, its harder to get the equipment needed to mine the metal!" "The miners have a very important role to play to supply the world with the metals it desperately needs." IMPORTANCE OF SAUDI ARABIA "If Saudi Arabia can't maintain basic energy security, we'll have $200-$300 oil. We need stability in that pricing. At $100-$300 oil, people in Egypt don't eat." "Saudi is playing a beneficial role by keeping oil between $70-90 per barrel." AUDIENCE Q&A "The valuation of the mining industry relative to the S&P 500 is the lowest in living memory. The general person thinks that mining is evil and must be eliminated." "50% of what goes into an EV is hydrocarbon. If we stopped producing oil, half of humanity would die from starvation." "I don't think we understand how formidable the Chinese are." "In a Balkenized economy, we went from a Just-in-Time supply chain to a Just-in-Case supply chain." "How much metal do we need to build nuclear reactors? How much steel, concrete, rebar, nuclear engineers do you need to build these things?" "The problem is that the world economy is Balkenized. Where is the steel coming from? Where are the pumps coming from? The French want nuclear power, and the Germans are burning coal. Even within Europe, its Balkenized. That's all I see." "I think the mining industry needs to defend itself more. Where do you think stuff comes from? There's the hardware of the mine (tons, grade, engineering). Then there's all the people around the mine (locals). There's invariably a clash with the locals around the mine. Unless they're buying into it, its not going to happen. That's the software around mining." ON KNOWING WHERE THINGS COME FROM "People don't realize where things come from. As people live in urban environments, they forget where things come from." "We need to communicate the importance of mining and humanize it as an activity. We need to mine in the United States. We need to figure out what should be mined, where we're allowed to mine, and how."

Brandon Beylo

440,302 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren

I’ve spent 2 hours combing through over 160 charts. Here are 40 stock charts you need to watch in the next 5 days! The market is still consolidating, but the tone shifted a bit last week. SPX failed to break out and closed near the weekly lows. QQQ and semiconductors weakened. Software is trying to stabilize, while earnings from names like $TSLA, $GOOGL, $IBM, and $INTC will likely determine where we go next. Here’s the watchlist and recording (audio cuts out after 20 min): $SPX: SPX attempted to break above both the weekly high and the upper trend line but couldn’t hold it. Buyers ran out of momentum and sellers stepped in, leaving us with a weekly close near the lows. While that’s a short-term negative, the bigger trend hasn’t broken. We’re still trading inside a two-month triangle after a strong advance. 7400 remains the key level I’m watching. Lose that and 7235 becomes a realistic target. Recover 7500 and the 50-day moving average, and I’d start looking for another push higher. $QQQ: Tech had one of the weaker weeks. QQQ is now below the 9, 20 and 50-day moving averages, and those averages are beginning to roll over, which is an early warning sign that momentum is fading. I’d keep a close eye on 685. If that level fails, the next meaningful support doesn’t come in until around 640. $IWM: Small caps continue holding above the 50-day moving average, which is constructive relative to QQQ, but the chart is still trapped inside a broad range. Until we reclaim 300, I don’t see a high-conviction setup here. $IGV: Software has cooled off after being one of the stronger groups a few weeks ago. The ETF remains below the 200-day moving average and continues to struggle there. Some individual software names still look attractive, but I’d like to see IGV reclaim 95-96 before becoming more aggressive. $SMH: Semiconductors spent another week under pressure but did manage to defend the 555 area on Friday. This group is sitting at a very important inflection point. If buyers can build on Friday’s bounce, we could start seeing leadership return. If not, this pullback could continue. $BTC: Bitcoin continues drifting sideways without much conviction. It’s holding the 58K-60K region, but there’s still no catalyst or technical confirmation suggesting buyers are ready to take control. For now, it’s simply range-bound. $AAPL: Apple continues to be one of the strongest charts in the market. Three straight weekly gains have brought it right back to all-time highs after fully recovering from the post-WWDC weakness. It has quietly become one of the market leaders again. Above 335, I’d look for continuation toward 350-360. $MSFT: Microsoft briefly reclaimed the 50-day moving average before giving it back. The chart isn’t broken, but it hasn’t shown the same relative strength as Apple or Meta. 400 remains the level I’d like to see recovered before getting more constructive. $GOOGL: Google remains below its key moving averages after the Gemini-related headlines earlier in the week. Friday was a better session relative to the market, but the chart still needs time to repair itself before offering a clean long setup. $META: Buyers stepped in exactly where they needed to, defending both the 200-day moving average and prior support. That reversal keeps the chart constructive despite the recent volatility. Above 650-652, I think Meta has a good chance of working back toward the highs. $TSLA: Tesla continues to be one of the weaker mega caps heading into earnings. The price action has been choppy, momentum is fading, and the chart lacks a clear trend. Below 368 could accelerate another leg lower. For now, I’d rather wait for earnings than force a trade. $AMZN: Amazon briefly reclaimed the 50-day moving average before giving the move back. It’s another chart that’s trying to stabilize but hasn’t earned my confidence yet. A sustained move back above the 50-day would improve the outlook. $NFLX: Netflix sold off after earnings and is now sitting at an important long-term support area around 70. That’s the level that matters. If buyers can reclaim 70, and especially 75-76, this quickly turns into an attractive failed-breakdown setup with room to recover. $NVDA: Friday looked ugly initially, but buyers defended both the psychological 200 level and the 200-day moving average. That’s exactly where you want institutions stepping in. Above 207, I’d look for a move toward 214-215, and only above there does a run back toward the highs become realistic. $BROS: Quietly building one of the cleaner bull flags on my watchlist. Friday’s strength was encouraging, and above 70 I think this one has room for another continuation move. $BE: After an incredible run, BE has finally started pulling back into support. This isn’t a chart I’d chase, but it’s one I’d monitor closely. If buyers defend 195, it could become another attractive continuation setup. $USO: Energy benefited from renewed geopolitical headlines and has started improving technically. A move above 125.85, along with reclaiming the 50-day moving average, would strengthen the bullish case. $NBIS: One of those AI names that can reverse very quickly once buyers return. Friday’s recovery was encouraging after several weak sessions. It remains firmly on my watchlist. $NET: Software hasn’t completely fallen apart, and NET continues to be one of the stronger names in the group. I’m watching 280-282 closely. If software finds its footing again, this is one of the first names I’d expect to move. $PANW: PANW continues holding up well despite broader market weakness and has respected support remarkably well. Earnings aren’t until August, leaving plenty of room for institutions to accumulate. Above 368, I’d expect momentum to build toward 400. $DELL: Dell continues holding its post-earnings gap extremely well despite weakness across AI infrastructure. That tells me institutions still want exposure. Above 410 would likely restart the uptrend. $LLY: Healthcare remains one of the stronger areas of the market, and Lilly continues showing leadership. Above 1200, I’d expect another leg higher as buyers continue rotating into defensive growth. $CRWD: CrowdStrike has done a great job holding above 200 despite the broader volatility. That’s constructive. Above 210, I’d look for buyers to regain momentum. $BAC: Earnings are behind it, removing one layer of uncertainty. As long as 60 holds, I think another breakout attempt remains very possible. $MU: Memory continues weakening after an exceptional run. Momentum has clearly faded. Below 800, I’d expect another wave of selling before buyers become interested again. $AMD: Despite the recent pullback in semiconductors, AMD continues to hold up better than many peers. The 500 area becomes an important decision point early in the week. $V: Visa printed an inside day after a healthy advance. Those often resolve with expansion. Watching 365 closely. $MA: Very similar setup to Visa. Healthy consolidation after a strong move higher. Worth watching if financials regain momentum. $SNDK: After an incredible run, the correction has been significant. The chart still needs time, but 1275-1300 becomes an important area to watch for signs that sellers are finally exhausting themselves. $ALAB: Another AI leader that’s finally cooling off after months of strength. Nothing wrong with the longer-term story, but technically it needs more time before becoming attractive again. $SPCX: SpaceX continues trading below its IPO price and has steadily deteriorated technically. August earnings become the next meaningful catalyst. Until then, I’d rather let the chart prove itself. $HOOD: Robinhood has now lost both 100 and the 200-day moving average. That’s meaningful technical damage. I’d wait for buyers to reclaim those levels before becoming interested again. $ISRG: One of the cleaner downside setups on my list. A break below Friday’s low around 345 could trigger another leg lower. Overall theme: Last week’s failed breakout shifted the short-term tone more cautious, but the bigger picture hasn’t changed. SPX remains inside a two-month consolidation, and earnings will likely determine whether we finally resolve higher or break lower. Semiconductors are trying to stabilize after a difficult stretch, software is mixed, and Wednesday becomes the biggest day of earnings season so far with reports from $TSLA, $GOOGL, $IBM, and $NOW, followed by $INTC on Thursday. $AAPL, $NVDA, $META, $PANW, $NET, $LLY, and $BROS are some of my favorite charts going into next week. If you like this, then like ❤️ it.

spacemonkey

25,744 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

This battery is about to change the world in 3 months, or make this guy a fool | Fred Lambert, Hacker News Donut Lab lit the EV and energy storage industry on fire last week with its announcement of a 400 Wh/kg solid-state battery cell that can last for 100 years. At face value, if true, we are looking at the single most disruptive announcement in the history of the electric vehicle industry and energy storage as a whole. We aren’t just talking about a better motorcycle battery. If the claims of a 5-minute charge, 100,000-cycle life, and ~400 Wh/kg energy density are accurate and scalable, as Donut Lab claims, this is the holy grail of energy storage. Battery breakthrough announcements generally don’t catch fire like this, but Donut Lab’s did because it said that the cell was already in production and will be in a production vehicle, Verge’s electric motorcycle, this quarter. It gave credibility to the claim, pushing everyone to report on it. Now, we have interviewed Donut Lab’s CEO and investigated the technology. At this point, it looks like either this battery changes the world within the next 3 months, or it will make the CEO look like a fool. In this article, we discuss the impact of the battery, whether real or not, as well as clues about the secret sauce behind its chemistry. The Holy Grail of Energy Storage Consider the implications. A battery that lasts 100,000 cycles is effectively immortal in human terms. You could charge it every single day for 270 years, and it would still be working. It means the battery outlives the vehicle, not just once, but ten times over. It changes the economics of transportation entirely: you buy the battery once, and you swap it into your next five cars. The power density required for a 5-minute charge and the 400 Wh/kg of energy density opens the door to commercial electric aviation, a sector currently strangled by the weight and slow charging speeds of lithium-ion. It solves the grid storage problem by offering a medium that doesn’t degrade, meaning utility companies could amortize the cost over a century rather than a decade. If this is real, the internal combustion engine didn’t just die today; it was buried 100 feet deep, and every other battery is not far behind. But, and this is a massive “but”, extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof, and Donut Lab has yet to release that proof. And that brings us to the man making them. The Man Betting His Reputation I spoke with Marko Lehtimäki, the CEO of Donut Lab and Chairman of Verge Motorcycles. My goal was simple: ask him about the chemistry behind his battery and, if that doesn’t work, look him in the eye and figure out if he’s selling vaporware or if he’s sitting on the breakthrough of the century. Marko isn’t a random guy shouting about a battery breakthrough that will change the world. He is a legit entrepreneur. A computer scientist who built a no-coding app builder years before “vibe coding” was even a thing and sold it to SAP. After the successful exit, he became an investor and serial entrepreneur with his biggest, or most well-known, company being Verge Motorcycles, which has real products on the road. By announcing that this “miracle battery” is already in production and will be shipping in customer vehicles within 10 weeks, he is betting his entire personal reputation on this technology. If he misses this timeline or if the specs are fake, Donut Labs and Verge Motorcycles might not survive the credibility loss. He has a lot to lose here. In my article about the battery announcement last week, I noted that Marko’s presentation was incredible. He basically described a perfect battery: record energy density, incredible charge rate, unprecedented longevity, no rare metals, a cost lower than traditional Li-ion cells, and in scalable production right now. Sounds too good to be true? The only thing he didn’t share was details about the chemistry, beyond saying it doesn’t use lithium or other rare metals. What’s the point of protecting the chemistry if the battery is already in production and it will be in a product shipped this quarter? If that’s true, the battery will be reverse-engineered before the snow completely melts. We discussed it with Marko during our interview. His logic is that once the bikes ship, competitors will tear them down and figure it out anyway. But that won’t happen for another 10 weeks or so, and the head start is critical for a technology this disruptive. In the meantime, Donut Lab’s goal with the announcement was to get the attention of OEMs and ship them battery packs for validation. Marko said: We are right now shipping demo packs to OEMs under NDAs and under tight disclosures so that they can test that all of that is true, which serves our business very well [better than disclosing the chemistry]. But these programs with OEMs are likely to take a long time before they become public. Shorter term, there’s Verge Motorcycles shipping bikes with the battery by the end of the quarter. Before that, Marko also said that we should soon see third-party testing of those cells: We rather right now ship it to authorized research and science center that tests everything without opening it and telling everybody what’s in there. In short, we should have a good idea whether the claims are true or not in just a few weeks no matter what. What does Marko, or Donut Lab, have to gain by lying about this? I also discussed this with Marko and the only thing I could come up with is if he happens to be raising capital right now, but he shut that down: There are a million investors chasing us right now, but we are literally not talking to anybody. We tell investors that we can discuss terms after we have done all our disclosures. Marko insisted that Donut Lab is not taking any investment until they have proven their cells work. In short, it’s hard to find an upside for Donut Lab in making this announcement if the claims are not true. It doesn’t mean that they are, but it makes you think. The Investigation: What Is the “Donut Battery”? So, what is the secret sauce? Marko wouldn’t say, but after digging into public records, supply chains, and research papers, I believe we have a pretty good idea. Let me preface this by saying that I’m not a chemist or physicist, but I’ve been a journalist covering electric vehicles for more than a decade, and I’m pretty good at connecting the dots, and in this case, I’ve had the help of a couple of great sources, too. I’m not saying that this is the Donut Lab battery, but since they are not sharing much, we have to speculate, and all evidence points to a Finnish nanotechnology startup called Nordic Nano and its Chief Scientist, Dr. Bela Bhuskute. Donut Lab invested in Nordic Nano in October 2025, just months before this announcement. At the time of writing this, the press release has fewer than 200 views. The announcement went under the radar, and while Marko said that Nordic Nano is more of a “solar company” during our interview, the announcement mentions both solar and energy storage. Dr. Bhuskute’s research at Tampere University focuses on amorphous Titanium Dioxide nanostructures, which could benefit many different technologies, including batteries. It fits the “miracle” specs perfectly: - 100,000 Cycles: Traditional solid-state batteries are crystalline (like a brick wall) and crack when ions rush in. Dr. Bhuskute’s amorphous Titanium Dioxide is disordered (like a sponge) and “breathes,” allowing it to expand and contract without breaking. - 5-Minute Charge: This chemistry stores energy via “pseudocapacitance,” which is basically like Velcro. Ions stick to the surface almost instantly rather than having to burrow deep inside the material. - The Manufacturing: Nordic Nano uses a “nanofluid” printing process for its solar product using the technology. This aligns with Donut Lab’s description of a “clay-like” material that enables an easier manufacturing process. Some call this “battery printing”, which could explain Donut Lab’s ability to bring this to production in record time. When I asked Marko for the volumetric energy density (Wh/L), he claimed he “couldn’t remember”. Volumetric energy density is one of the few specs that Donut Lab hasn’t released. This battery is lighter than lithium-ion, but it could be bigger due to the amorphous nature of the titanium dioxide. However, the CEO claimed it has a higher volumetric density than traditional Li-ion batteries, without providing a specific number. If that’s true, not only could electric vehicles and energy storage switch to this new chemistry, but even personal electronics, such as smartphones. In 2025, Nordic Nano has been making moves, including securing a former large retail location in Imatra, Finland, near the Russian border: It could be where the company has set up production. Following investment from the Finnish government, Nordic Nano had to elaborate a bit on its products and confirmed that it is working on “solar energy systems and energy storage solutions”: The company’s range of products includes two product families: solar energy systems and energy storage solutions: The ultra-thin and flexible solar film collects twice the amount of energy compared to traditional silicon-based solar panels. Solid-state salt batteries are manufactured by printing from nanofluid, which enables the efficient use of space and the production of batteries in varying shapes. Furthermore, the company confirmed that it is using a “screenprinting” manufacturing method. This is not new. Other companies have produced battery cells with this technology with varying degrees of success. It appears that the bet is that the amorphous rather than crystalized titanium dioxide nanostructure could be more easily adapted and scaled with this manufacturing technology. Electrek’s Take I’m naturally skeptical, and this screams “too good to be true”, but I can’t find anything that categorically rejects the claims. I get battery breakthrough announcements in my inbox every week, and most of the time they never amount to anything. If I decide to spend some time researching them and talking to experts, I generally quickly hit a problem or two that make them commercially unviable. This announcement is different. We can’t really investigate the actual breakthrough; we can only speculate about it, since it is guarded. Marko’s logic for guarding the chemistry is sound, and the incentives to lie about what they have aren’t clear if he is not currently raising money. Then, because they claim this is already in production and will be in a deliverable product within weeks, we will know whether the claims are true in short order, and their reputations, especially Marko’s, are on the line. During my interview, Marko didn’t seem too worried about it. It doesn’t sound like someone who needs to quickly figure out how to deliver this, but rather someone who has a couple of aces in their hand and is looking to maximize them. It’s also strange that this innovation and then production quickly comes from a relatively small company. I thought researching Donut Lab would make me more skeptical about the claims, but it’s the contrary. It confirms that their technology stems from years of research, backed by university and government funding for its commercialization. Could it be that this critical research went under the radar and a small electric motorcycle startup in need of a significant bump in energy density stumbled upon it? Then, a savvy entrepreneur quickly found a way to optimize the impact of this potentially groundbreaking tech by spinning out a startup from the motorcycle company to market the battery to a broader market. Maybe? This could be real, or it could be hype. Again, I’m still skeptical, but I can’t point to anything specific that would disprove any claim made about this miracle battery. Again, if this is true, we are talking about a complete reset of the entire energy and transportation sectors. Donut Lab would become one of the biggest companies in the world. A Nobel Prize would be coming to Dr. Bhuskute and her colleagues in the near future. If it’s not, Marko and Donut Lab’s reputation would be destroyed. There might also be a middle conclusion where the battery is nearly as good as they claim, but when you ramp up production, other problems arise, such as scrap, which has been the undoing of another company that recently tried screenprinting batteries. Who knows? But it sounds like we should find out soon. Within weeks, we should get independent verifications of the specs. Then the bikes get delivered within months. You can fake a presentation, but there are things you can’t fake.

Owen Gregorian

123,359 Aufrufe • vor 8 Monaten

Greetings, global pioneers! Happy Saturday!🌹🌹🌹 I hope this message finds you well and in high spirits. This Saturday, I encourage you to reflect on all the good things life offers. Spend time with your loved ones, enjoy moments of rest, and cherish the blessings you have. Remember that this is the foundation upon which Pi Network was built a community that values love, support, and hard work. As pioneers, we can significantly impact and achieve financial stability while supporting the Pi community. Finding a job is an excellent way to ensure financial stability and not expect to sell Pi. It is important to understand that solely focusing on completing the KYC process and exchanging Pi to fiat currency, without having a job, can lead to feelings of anxiety and depression. Additionally, selling Pi will not solve any financial difficulties and may cause you to miss out on potential wealth opportunities. As a suggestion, all global pioneers should secure a job before the launch of OM. If you are unable to find a permanent job, consider finding a temporary job, especially in the next 3-6 months. By working during this period and refraining from selling Pi, we can speed up the KYC and migration process, ultimately leading to the launch of OM.✌️✌️✌️✌️ In addition, spending more time with our family can bring harmony to our lives and help us gain their support, which is crucial in achieving our goals. Even small contributions to the Pi community, such as posting "thank you," "I support GCV," "I love Pi Network," or "we are a big family and we support each other," can go a long way in making a difference. If you don't understand why we support GCV, take your time to read and observe instead of posting negative comments. Remember, most pioneers catch up and support each other, so if you missed the class, don't worry, and learn from others who did well. Let's work together and make a difference while achieving our goals. In my previous post, I emphasized the importance of having a strategy and tactics to help you manage your group and community efficiently without wasting too much time. To ensure that your group runs smoothly, it's crucial to establish a sense of unity and ground rules. Remember, the group is not a platform to post anything and everything, especially fake news and misleading information. Mutual respect is non-negotiable, and any attack or smear will not be tolerated. Only share information about GCV education and activities. By following the guidelines provided, you can manage your group efficiently with just half an hour of effort each day. As a group owner or moderator, it is your responsibility to ensure that pioneers study in the correct direction. Please refrain from using fake news to attract and paralyze pioneers, as it will only cause anxiety and hatred towards Pi Network. Education is a top priority. But what exactly is education? In the context of Pi Network, education means helping pioneers understand what Pi Network is and why it has not taken the same steps as Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies. Pi Network's mission is to resolve technology, financial, and currency problems and apply these benefits in our daily lives. It's important that all pioneers pay attention and not just look at the exchange market. While exchange markets can benefit some investors, they can also lead to significant losses. If you read what Dr. Nicolas has said, you will understand why he has invested so much money, almost a decade, into Pi Network as a real blockchain technology to help our world and society. He cannot achieve this goal without the support of all 50 million pioneers. It's important that we work together to make Pi Network a success. The following is a set of recommendations for pioneers interested in GCV . Our first step should be to understand why we need $314,159 and what measures pioneers should undertake to achieve this goal. To succeed, pioneers should make use of easily accessible resources and avoid unnecessary expenditures and risks. In this context, I recommend that pioneers develop the skills necessary to become self-learners, given the wealth of information available on my Twitter. I have received many questions about GCV from pioneers through Twitter. It can be overwhelming to respond to each one individually, especially when I have my daily work to do. I advised pioneers to become self-learners and cultivate patience and perseverance in studying. It's important to take the time to learn and understand things on your own, and not solely rely on others for answers. I would like to acknowledge the suggestions of Canadian merchant Mengmiao for the creation of the website OrientalPurpleLotus, which serves as a platform to share my articles and videos. This website will enable global pioneers to access my posts with greater ease. I will publish the website when it is ready. I apologize for being unable to respond to all of the private messages I receive from pioneers. While I act as a GCV ambassador focused on education, I do not have the capacity to act as a global community leader. For information on specific regions, I advise pioneers to consult their respective community leaders. It is pivotal to emphasize the importance of mutual trust and support in achieving success, and I urge pioneers to refrain from attacking one another. I am elated to witness the success of the Malaysia Community led by Mr. Patrick and other exceptional community leaders in organizing the Xin Shan Barter support GCV event yesterday. The event drew around 500 pioneers from Singapore, Indonesia, Taiwan, Vietnam, and mainland China, generating thousands of GCV data. I extend my gratitude to the Malaysia community for their dedication to GCV education and barter support. Additionally, I commend the Barter organizers and merchants for their generous support and hard work. Their contributions are an inspiration to all global pioneers to learn from their success.✌️✌️✌️✌️👍👍👍 I look forward to the Philippine community's upcoming barter event on Mar. 10th., which will be led by Ms. Lumari and other outstanding community leaders. I express my gratitude to them and extend my best wishes for a successful event.👏👏👏 I encourage all pioneers to join my GCV group, enabling them to share information with their respective groups. The global GCV group and the Chinese GCV group two such communities. This message is coming to you from my cozy office, where I am surrounded by beautiful music and fragrant candles. I will continue to share Malaysia's fantastic barter videos and photos with you and post speeches from myself and other Chinese community leaders. Stay tuned... Doris Yin 🪷🪷🪷

Doris Yin 东方紫莲🪷

24,705 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren

TOPIC #107: PI NETWORK IS A STABLE COIN? -WHO DECIDES PI FULLY OM FIXED VALUE? Dear GCV army, I hope you are all doing great! First of all, I would like to express my sincere gratitude for all your hard work. Many of you have achieved significant milestones, and it’s evident that you are making a great difference. Our influence has grown significantly, with an increasing number of social media posts and YouTubers publicly supporting us. I can see that more and more people are beginning to understand why we advocate for GCV. Today's meeting aims to alleviate any doubts you may have, allowing you to relax and feel confident as we embark on our historic journey together. I will answer the questions I’ve received and address some important issues we need to focus on to maintain our community's efficiency, particularly regarding our Generals, which will be the topic next weekend. I put the questions I received here. "A question addressed to Ms. Doris Yin in the emergency meeting 1– In light of the rapidly changing global circumstances and the increasing discussion about stablecoins backed by U.S. Treasury bonds, how do you see the future role of the Pi Network in this context? And what practical steps should the GCV army take now to accelerate this path? 2_ There are those who promote the idea that the price of Pi is what appears in the market (currently around $0.49) and compare it to the price of GCV within the ecosystem (314,159 Pi = 1 good or service). They say if Pi’s price rises to $2, it means that the value within The ecosystem is approximately 2 million dollars. With sincere appreciation and discipline." This is from the Arab head of GCV Ambassador Mr. Mohammed. Another question: "Hello, my Global Ambassador, I am Ateba Joseph, Ecological Ambassador in Cameroon And a member of the GCV army, I am delighted to exchange with you. Regarding the meeting with the GCV army on Sunday, July 27, 2025.. Here is my concern: A few days ago, a correspondence indicated that Pi is not or is not yet a stable coin. Upon reading this information, we have provided many explanations to help the pioneers understand this. I hope you will focus more on this statement to further strengthen our understanding of the subject. Thank you for taking my concerns into consideration" Thank you for the above questions; my answers are below. The first question concerns stablecoins. Many pioneers are hoping that Pi can be recognized by the U.S. government as a stablecoin. I wrote an article on this in May. On July 18, 2025, President Trump signed the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins Act (the GENIUS Act) into law. This legislation establishes a regulatory framework for payment stablecoins and marks the first federal legislation on digital assets enacted since President Trump issued an executive order aimed at making the U.S. the “crypto capital of the world.” U.S.-issued stablecoins are expected to become the primary means of dollar transactions globally, especially in emerging markets with unstable local currencies. The sponsors of the GENIUS Act estimate that by 2030, stablecoin issuers may collectively become the largest holders of U.S. Treasuries, surpassing foreign central banks. From this, we can see that U.S. stablecoins must maintain reserves backing outstanding payment stablecoins on a one-to-one basis, consisting only of specified assets, including U.S. dollars and short-term Treasury securities. It is clear that the Pi Network will not take this path, as it is not part of our plan. A stablecoin is essentially a digital representation of the U.S. dollar. All stablecoin issuers do not create a new currency; rather, it’s akin to purchasing chips at a casino – you must use U.S. dollars to buy those chips. However, Pi is a completely new currency. It does not need to be backed up by U.S. dollars or U.S. Treasuries to be used. If that were the case, we wouldn’t need to establish an ecosystem or have a three-year enclosed mainnet. I previously mentioned the possibility of Pi being an algorithmic stablecoin since only algorithmic stablecoins do not need to be backed by U.S. dollars. However, algorithmic stablecoins have faced significant failures in the past. The collapse of the Terra (LUNA) cryptocurrency resulted in a loss of at least $40 billion in market capitalization, with estimates reaching as high as $60 billion. TerraUSD (UST), an algorithmic stablecoin, lost its peg to the U.S. dollar, contributing to its overall collapse. The new stablecoin legislation recently passed through the Senate effectively ties the U.S. Treasury to crypto, as it essentially bets the government’s cash flow on digital tokens and market speculation. This legislation requires stablecoins to be backed by short-term Treasury bills, generating an estimated $2–$3 trillion in new demand for government debt, which is nearly half the current size of the T-bill market. On paper, this looks beneficial, but in reality, it creates a circular feedback loop: crypto demand fuels stablecoins, stablecoins buy T-bills, and T-bills fund government deficits. The government becomes reliant on speculative capital flows. Thus, we should understand why the U.S. government will not support the Pi Network as a stablecoin, as they require stablecoin issuers to buy T-bills and can no longer trust algorithmic stablecoins. So, what is the future of the Pi Network as a currency? From my perspective, Pi is already listed on exchange markets. It cannot be classified as a security because it is mined freely and is not an ICO. Instead, it should be categorized as a commodity, similar to Bitcoin and ETH. When a currency is listed for trading on an exchange, its price is determined by the balance of supply and demand. However, Pi is a currency in its own right; it has inherent value from Pi holders -Pioneers. Historically, currency has served as a medium of exchange. A medium of exchange is a widely accepted item for buying goods and services in an economy. It facilitates transactions by eliminating the need for a barter system, where goods are directly exchanged for other goods. In modern economies, money (such as currency) serves as the primary medium of exchange. **Functions of Money:** One of the core functions of money is to serve as a medium of exchange, enabling the smooth transfer of value between buyers and sellers, thereby simplifying trade and economic activity. **Examples:** In modern economies, this typically includes currency (paper money, coins) or digital money. In specific historical contexts, other items, such as cigarettes in prisoner-of-war camps, have also served as mediums of exchange. **Importance of Acceptance:** For a medium of exchange to function effectively, it must be widely accepted and trusted within the relevant community. **Not the Same as a Payment Method:** While credit cards and checks are used for payments, they do not serve as mediums of exchange themselves. Therefore, stablecoin is not a new currency. It is more likely to have a credit card or check character. It is a USD digital status. From the analysis presented, we can draw the following conclusions: The current price of Pi on the exchange market primarily serves as a temporary measure to facilitate broad expansion. While this is not our primary objective, it constitutes a strategic approach towards achieving our mission. To gain a clearer perspective, we must adopt a higher-level view of the overall vision for the Pi Network. The mission and vision of Pi Network clearly articulate that it is not intended to function as a commodity for sale, nor is it meant to be an investment vehicle or a speculative security. Instead, it is crucial to recognize that Pi is designed to be a medium of exchange—a new form of currency. As pioneers in this venture, we have the unique opportunity to acquire Pi through free mining. However, it is important to note that the current mining rate is relatively slow. To overcome this limitation and to further our goal of mass adoption, it is essential for more individuals to join the Pi Network and participate in holding Pi. One efficient way to accelerate this process is by allowing Pi to be traded on the exchange market, which can result in rapid and widespread adoption. Since Pi can be mined for free, a lower price could make it more accessible to a larger number of people. It's important to focus on our primary goal during this pre-full Open Mainnet (OM) phase: mass adoption, rather than aiming for high prices, which many pioneers expected. Some pioneers want to sell when the price increases, but if too many sell, it could undermine our goal of achieving mass adoption. This scenario is reminiscent of historical instances when shells served as currency—readily accessible from the sea or buy from the village market. For shells to function effectively as currency, a collective effort was needed to hold and circulate them within the village. If only a select few individuals possess the shells, the currency lacks the necessary circulation to sustain an economy. Hence, our goal should not be centered on achieving a high price; instead, we should strive to make Pi more affordable so that a greater number of individuals can acquire and hold it, thereby fostering a thriving economic ecosystem. Of course, the rising price will build up merchants' confidence to accept it as payment. This is why we refer to it as a buyback campaign, which aims to achieve mass adoption and foster ecosystem confidence. As Pi evolves into a currency, the question of its value becomes pertinent. Given that it is a new currency, its value is not immediately clear. This presents an opportunity for us, the pioneers, to play a crucial role in defining it. The determination of Pi's value is not the responsibility of a central authority such as CT, the government, or the exchange. Instead, it will emerge from a decentralized consensus within the community, which collectively owns Pi. This concept is akin to ancient times when the value of shells was not determined by the sellers. Rather, the value was derived from the collective agreement of the village that utilized them as currency. I hope this elaboration clarifies the distinction between value and price, enabling a deeper understanding of the foundational principles that drive our mission with Pi Network. Pi represents a groundbreaking innovation—a revolution that is poised for long-term economic development on a global scale, rather than perpetuating cycles of plunder and exploitation. By harnessing the power of blockchain technology, Pi empowers ordinary individuals, which creates an inherent conflict of interest with the U.S. government in the short term. Should the U.S. government endorse the Pi Network, it raises questions about the viability of U.S. treasuries and who would ultimately purchase them. Consequently, the government may prioritize support for stablecoins backed by the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury securities, as this can help alleviate the U.S. government's issues with limited demand. However, I previously mentioned the potential for Pi to emerge as an algorithmic stablecoin. At that time, the Genius Bill had not yet been enacted. If the Pi Network gains acceptance from the U.S. government, its growth could become rapid and expansive, leading to widespread adoption in other nations. This path would position Pi as a legitimate currency in nearly every country, contingent upon certain conditions. For instance, if the price of Pi in the exchange market can align with the GCV, this could be achieved through a buyback mechanism involving 10 million pioneers. Such a scenario would indicate that Pi differs significantly from past algorithmic stablecoin failures, presenting a compelling case for the U.S. government to view Pi as a low-risk asset. However, it presents a significant challenge to be collectively reached by pioneers, and there are other conditions that we cannot achieve in a short time. While it might appear that Pi Network conflicts with the U.S. dollar or stablecoins in the short term, it has the potential to address the broader issue of overprinting currency, which has plagued the U.S. and many other nations. This would benefit international trade by alleviating concerns about currency appreciation or depreciation in international transactions. The global economy indeed requires a super sovereign currency—one that ensures stability for future generations and fosters lasting peace and prosperity. To comprehend Pi as a currency, it is crucial to recognize that we must cultivate long-term value by generating GCV data. In the short term, our focus needs to be on establishing a robust exchange market and decentralized applications (DApps) to drive mass adoption. If this is understood, there should be no need to feel discouraged by the current low price of Pi. The true value of Pi as a currency derives not from the exchange market, trading platforms, or governmental endorsement, but rather from our community's collective efforts and engagement. You might wonder how a government could adopt Pi, given that it does not take the form of a stablecoin. I would counter with the example of Bitcoin, which has thrived even in environments where many countries have imposed bans. Currently, Pi is transitioning from its traditional commodity status to being recognized as a currency, meaning governmental awareness of Pi Network is still in development. As such, existing regulations generally pertain to older forms of cryptocurrency rather than our innovative approach. Our branding as a digital currency, rather than a cryptocurrency, is intentional. Dr. Nicolas has expressed concerns that many aspects of conventional cryptocurrencies pose challenges to government frameworks and public trust, often leading to economic harm rather than benefit. Our commitment to Know Your Customer (KYC) and Know Your Business (KYB) protocols distinguishes us by mitigating money laundering risks and protecting Pi holders from speculative practices. Many businesses face bankruptcy or closure because consumers lack the disposable income to engage in spending. Imagine how Pi could enable those businesses to survive and thrive—people could utilize Pi to make purchases and easily convert it into fiat currency to sustain operations, thereby preserving many jobs. The function in our wallet that allows users to "buy" Pi is not merely a feature; it represents a vision for the future where conversion to fiat currency can happen immediately, without dependency on third-party exchanges. Moving forward, we can establish a fixed rate (the GCV) for conversions. Once larger institutions and prominent companies recognize the low-risk profile of joining Pi Network due to its GCV stability, we can expect a considerable influx of participants seeking to gain a competitive advantage. You may ask how companies would finance the purchase of Pi at GCV rates. This is an insightful question. My perspective is that the demand for Pi’s stable value will inherently incentivize investments. Much like why individuals purchase stablecoins for their convenience in facilitating cross-border transactions, Pi will appeal to consumers and businesses alike, particularly because we are leveraging Web 3.0 blockchain technology, AI-driven platforms, and a rich ecosystem of decentralized applications (DApps). We are cultivating a loyal customer base that recognizes the value of this innovation. We understand that high-net-worth individuals seek safe investment opportunities. While U.S. treasury bonds currently represent a secure asset class, they are not without risk. Therefore, if Pi Network can maintain a limited supply coupled with blockchain technology and a consistent GCV, it is plausible that affluent investors would allocate a portion of their capital to acquire Pi. This would lead to fiat inflows whenever there is increased demand for Pi, establishing an equilibrium between Pi and fiat currencies. This interplay is why I believe DApps are critically significant. We need broader usage of Pi in real-world applications. I hope my analysis has helped clarify why the price of Pi should not overly concern us. Buying Pi to hold onto it allows pioneers to accumulate more, while building merchant confidence is essential to kickstart the ecosystem. Merchants will be motivated to see Pi’s price appreciation since this removes the risks for DApps and service providers who depend on exchange market prices. A rise in demand for Pi will subsequently reduce its supply, which is beneficial for price increases. I look forward to discussing Pi GCV army management in another session. Thank you for your time. Let’s continue striving for greatness together. Doris Yin 🪷🪷🪷 Founder, Global GCV Movement Disclaimer: This speech is intended solely for educational purposes within the GCV community. The views and content shared here represent my personal perspective and are part of the GCV movement, but do not reflect the official position of the Pi Core Team (PCT). Pi Network represents a new revolution, meaning there is no existing example for us to follow and no guiding manual. As Dr. Fan mentioned, we cannot predict what will happen around the next corner. Therefore, we must practice and forge our own path. As more people traverse this journey, the road will become clearer.

Doris Yin 东方紫莲🪷

17,742 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

[Behavioral Scientist's Analysis] NewJeans, Now Even Stronger, HYBE in Trouble I’ll listen again. Danielle: “Naturally, we all want to continue working with Daepyonim. Even before debuting as NewJeans and through all of the time that we spent together with Min Hee-jin Daepyonim, all of us felt that the music we wanted to make and the kind of world we wanted to build together, our vision, was similar in so many ways. With Min Hee-jin Daepyonim, we were able to prepare each and every task with sincere hearts, and I believe it shows in our work. Putting our sincere effort into something is only possible because the people that we're working with have trust in each other and have that same vision. Min Hee-jin Daepyonim is not only the person that produces our music, but someone who makes NewJeans who we are. She discusses even the smallest details with us and explains them in ways that we can understand clearly. NewJeans has a distinct colour and tone, and this was created with Min Hee-jin Daepyonim. She is integral to NewJeans’ identity, and we all feel that she is irreplaceable.” Danielle clearly stated this and also expressed it in English. So, in terms of the NewJeans issue, international fans who don’t have much information may not have had a clear perception of Ms. Min Hee-jin or how to view this issue. If you look at the comments, it was very poorly organized. In Korea, we now have clear information, so NewJeans fans, Bunnies, are cheering for NewJeans and supporting Ms. Min Hee-jin. It has become clearly sorted out like this. However, internationally, it hasn’t been clearly explained. But with Danielle explaining it so well in English, I expect that from now on, the international atmosphere will shift towards attacking HYBE, criticizing Bang Si-hyuk, and supporting Ms. Min Hee-jin and NewJeans worldwide. So, now that the artist has clearly stated their position and made it clear that the identity and assets of the NewJeans brand come from Ms. Min Hee-jin, regardless of any legal disputes or lawsuits, in the minds of the fans, NewJeans equals Min Hee-jin. And as for the current management of ADOR and HYBE, they will be seen as the ones attacking NewJeans and the mysterious people with no clear motive, such as Bang Si-hyuk. I think this will now be clear. Considering the nature of the entertainment industry, like many creative industries and the cultural industry, this is not manufacturing. Many things can’t be determined through legal processes like patents for ideas or lawsuits. The B2C market, or the market for services and consumption of an artist's brand, is driven by sensitivity. People consume it because of the emotional connection and enjoy it because of that sensitivity. So, what’s the point of winning a legal case? Even if HYBE were to win any legal case, do you think consumers wouldn’t boycott NewJeans’ music or other products afterward? I believe HYBE will be punished in some way for its actions towards ADOR and its current management. The way they are handling risk management is shortsighted, as they fail to understand people’s emotions. They seem to only rely on the advice of legal professionals and accountants, and their entire approach to this issue is so narrow-minded and misguided. It feels incredibly foolish to me. So, to summarize: NewJeans’ branding was done by Ms. Min Hee-jin. The identity and assets of the NewJeans brand were created by her, and we did it together because of her. Haerin: “However, even after our debut, there have been many unfair and incomprehensible incidents that you might not know about, and these incidents have only increased over time. As some of you may know, recently, videos from our trainee days and private records, such as medical information, were leaked. When I first saw that, I was really shocked. It was hard to understand how our company, which is supposed to protect us, failed to manage and allowed such information to be leaked. Naturally, this situation has made us worry that other strange or false information about us might spread in the future. Although we, along with our parents and Min Hee-jin Daepyonim, have raised concerns about this to HYBE, they haven’t resolved the issue, nor have they taken any proactive measures. Then, in the midst of all this, our CEO was dismissed, and we’re left wondering whom we can trust and rely on. We’ve come to the conclusion that if we don’t speak out about this now, no one will know what we’re going through. After much discussion among ourselves, we finally decided to take this step.” The current situation is shocking, but this is not just about this one incident; they’ve been continuously receiving unfair treatment from HYBE. The fact that they are saying this publicly now is truly shocking. They’ve been discussing these unfair treatments with their parents and Ms. Min Hee-jin while continuing their activities as NewJeans. They are saying that the unfair treatment from HYBE has been ongoing. It’s hard to understand as an outsider, but now the artists themselves have confirmed that there have been instances where the company has mistreated them. This is no longer a matter of speculation or exaggeration. NewJeans has officially admitted that HYBE has been continuously mistreating them. Moving forward, this changes the entire perspective on the issue. It’s no longer just NewJeans vs. HYBE or Min Hee-jin vs. Bang Si-hyuk. It’s hard to even imagine the reality of this situation. Now that the NewJeans artists have come out and said that HYBE has mistreated them, regardless of how HYBE tries to communicate going forward, they will now be framed as the ones mistreating NewJeans. How can they possibly shake off this perception now? I don’t think they can. Hanni: “Something happened to me recently. The 4th floor of the HYBE building is where we get our hair and makeup done, so a lot of other artists and staff come and go there. One day, I was waiting alone in the hallway, and some staff from another team passed by. We greeted each other, but when they came back out a bit later, I heard one of their managers say, “Ignore her,” right in front of me. I could hear and see everything clearly. Even now, I still don’t understand why I had to go through that.” I still don’t understand why that happened, even now. When I think about it, I feel like it was really ridiculous. This story from Hanni was so frustrating and absurd. Wow, what Hanni just shared is really shocking. She mentioned meeting an artist, and that artist's manager told them to ignore her. If this happened in middle or high school, people would probably dismiss it as childish fighting, but this happened among adults, and it's becoming a huge issue. Honestly, the NewJeans members aren’t sharing these stories to stir things up. They’re probably just speaking truthfully about their experiences and trying to be genuine with their fans, saying, “It’s time we express our stance honestly.” The timing and approach they’ve taken are actually perfect. They started by clearly explaining their motivations and why they’re speaking out, then moved on to using English to express what NewJeans’ identity is and the members' feelings, as well as their history with their manager. They made it clear how they feel about these situations. Now, they've started sharing more detailed stories. The way they’ve structured everything is so good because people remember stories more than abstract thoughts or philosophies. When you say, “This happened to me,” people are much more likely to remember that than vague statements. Hanni shared her unfair experience in such an honest way, and I think it’s going to spread widely. I can already imagine netizens trying to figure out which manager it was, which artist, and so on. This story will likely go viral. People remember stories like this because they stick in their minds. For example, remember when Bang Si-hyuk didn’t return NewJeans’ greeting, and it became a huge thing about face blindness? People don’t remember the details, but they remember that someone important didn’t greet them. It became a memorable story. Minji: “When I heard about what Hanni experienced, I was really shocked. How could a manager from another team tell their members to ignore one of us, and say it so loudly that Hanni could hear it? Such unimaginable words and behavior were directed at us, yet there was no apology, nor did they even acknowledge their wrongdoing. Of course, I’m worried about how many more similar incidents might occur in the future and whether we’ll be subtly ostracized without anyone there to protect us.” Hanni: “I hope no one else has to go through something like that, but since it’s already happened once, I can’t help but feel scared that other members might experience the same thing. I spoke to the new CEO about it, but since I didn’t have evidence and it was considered too late, they seemed to brush it off, making me feel like there’s no one left to protect us. It really felt like the concern for us was gone, and even though I was being honest, it made me feel like I was suddenly being treated as a liar. Before, Min Heejin, our previous CEO, used to take care of us a lot. But now, while the new people say they’ll help, it’s just been months of excuses... excuses... excuses... They keep saying that it’s something they can’t resolve. But this is something that I personally went through and experienced, yet they are trying to dismiss it as if it’s my fault. I’m worried and scared about what might happen next.” I want to make two points here. First, this is clearly “invisibility.” It’s not physical violence, but it’s about not acknowledging someone’s greeting, deliberately ignoring them, and so on. While it may not seem like a big deal, it still deeply hurts someone’s feelings. There’s been a lot of research on how these kinds of actions negatively affect an organization, spreading like poison and making people feel bad. It’s something we should really work against. The second point is about third-party justice. Hanni raised a legitimate concern, and it wasn’t handled properly within the company. This made Hanni, Minji, and others realize that the new management isn’t on their side. When others witness this, they’ll also realize that this company doesn’t have their best interests at heart. This realization leads to a loss of trust. People will remember these events, and once this perception sticks, it’s hard to change. It affects not just NewJeans, but also other artists who will think, “Oh, this is how HYBE treats people.” And it even affects the employees who work there. Minji: “Of course, I’m worried about our future, but what’s most frightening is that the work we’ve already created is being compromised. Seeing the people who have poured their lives into creating our work being treated this way makes it hard to understand how this could be happening. The new management said they would separate producing and management, but we’ve always worked differently from other labels, and we thought that our way was a good one. Now, Daepyonim can no longer approve all matters, and we’re left wondering how we’re supposed to continue working as we did before. The recent statement from the new management also didn’t make sense to me. If they really didn’t intend to interfere with our production, then the recent incident with Director Shin Woo-seok should never have happened, and it should have been handled differently. We are the ones directly involved with the copyrights and likeness rights of our content, yet they’re making decisions without our consent. In their statement, they kept saying they were acting to protect us and prevent our anxiety, but why do they keep insisting on this when they haven’t considered our wishes? We don’t want any more unnecessary issues to arise, and we want them to show respect and consideration for Daepyonim and all the directors who have worked with us. The things they’re doing right now are not in our best interest at all.” What’s worth discussing here is the perception of hypocrisy. People really dislike hypocrisy, and when you think about it, it makes sense. When humans are surviving, if there’s an enemy or a difficult environment, they overcome it as part of life. But the most dangerous situation is when you think someone is an ally, but they turn out to be an enemy. When you thought they were on your side but they stab you in the back — that’s when people are really upset. That’s why people hate it when there’s a discrepancy between outward appearances and inward intentions. It creates a near-hatred, especially when someone claims to be acting for your benefit but it’s clear that they’re not. This is what Minji is clearly pointing out — these people are hypocrites. New Jeans has already reached a conclusion internally: this new management team, in less than a month, has revealed themselves to be hypocrites. And they’ve shared this with the fans and everyone else. This isn’t just some interesting topic on a live broadcast; this will cause a huge impact, and I am certain of that. New Jeans has come to a solid realization — these people are not working for us. They are liars and hypocrites. Therefore, the new management can no longer properly lead the company. They will not be able to continue, and this system cannot be maintained. Why? Because the artist has called them out as hypocrites. The only way they can recover is by proving they aren’t hypocrites, but even then, that’s not effective — New Jeans would have to say it. But the chance of that happening is zero. In short, these people have been socially branded as hypocrites. The new management’s time is up. Less than a month, and their time is over. In the creative industry, especially in culture and the arts, content production — such as creating songs or music videos — cannot be separated from management. That’s how we’ve always worked, and it was good for us. Min Hee-jin was a remarkable creator and artist who understood all of this. The harmony between management and artistic decision-making brought about the incredible phenomenon of New Jeans. But now, they’ve created a system where that harmony can’t exist anymore. Moreover, the new management is culturally ignorant. They don’t understand art, music, or creativity. They have shown this clearly, especially with their mishandling of Director Shin Woo-seok’s music video and the associated fan content, like those on the Dolphiners YouTube channel. They’ve demanded to delete content without protecting the artists, or respecting the work of those who collaborated on it. Their management decisions show a complete lack of sensitivity or empathy. So once again, I say: "the new management’s time is over." Danielle: “As I mentioned earlier, our dream was to perform the music we want to make with Daepyonim, and we were working very hard toward that goal. But now, we can’t do that, and the plans we’ve made might not come to fruition. As Hanni unnie said earlier, just like that, the content that we released solely for our fans, for our bunnies, was instantly erased. And I truly can't understand why anyone would do this to a group, or just anyone in general. We were just working hard for the present, so what did we do wrong? A week after Daepyonim was dismissed, we found out that we could no longer work with the director we’ve been working with all this time, and we’re extremely anxious because we don’t know what will happen to the staff who have always worked hard for us. If they really care about us, they should stop saying that they prioritize the artists and instead let us do the music we love in an environment where we can be genuinely happy. Is that really so hard to do? It’s hard to fully express what’s in my heart, but in the end, the five of us just want to continue our activities with Min Hee-jin Daepyonim, as we have done so far.” Personally, they just want to be left alone—just "Leave us alone. Don't interfere; just leave us alone.” This is what they’re saying to both ADOR and HYBE. It's become clear now that HYBE and ADOR can no longer meddle with NewJeans, and I think things will flow that way from now on. The fans won’t stand still either. In entertainment, it’s not about titles like "I’m the CEO," or "I own shares." These are shallow understandings of what makes the entertainment business work. The real value created in this industry is the love and recognition from the fans. No amount of shares or CEO titles matter when that love disappears in an instant. NewJeans is asking to be left alone, and because of this, the new management of HYBE and ADOR can no longer act. I believe the future will unfold accordingly. One important thing I want to emphasize is that NewJeans is a unique group. They’re not just factory-produced idols. The distinctive nature of NewJeans’ music is felt by everyone who listens to them. For example, producer 250, who played a significant role in shaping the NewJeans sound, alongside other talented producers like those from the Banana Culture label, was brought in by CEO Min Hee-jin. This collaboration birthed the unique musical style of NewJeans, which many have come to appreciate. Their latest album, which incorporated elements like New Jack Swing, wasn’t just NewJeans making this music—it was 250's creative vision, drawing inspiration from 70s and 80s funk, R&B, and American black music, and reinterpreting them. If 250 no longer works with NewJeans, their music might become indistinguishable from other idol groups. The choreography, another element that set NewJeans apart, also contributed to their success. However, with the recent tensions, it's obvious that working with key figures like director Shin Woo-seok, who directed many of NewJeans' music videos, will become difficult moving forward. Director Shin wasn’t even interested in music videos before but was inspired to work with NewJeans after a conversation with Min Hee-jin. If Min Hee-jin and people like director Shin are ousted from ADOR, it’s inevitable that the core assets of NewJeans, including their distinctive musical and visual style, will vanish. This is not just a simple matter of one person being ousted—it’s about losing the core elements that made NewJeans what they are. WE STAND WITH NEWJEANS #버니즈_뉴진스와함께_준비갈완료 #방시혁_2주준다_민희진_복귀시켜라

1tokki

39,222 Aufrufe • vor 2 Jahren

5 years ago, I created a fundraiser on Donate-NG to buy a laptop. I had just been admitted to the university to study Computer Science. But I didn't own a laptop. That was a very big setback for me. The Job I had then was paying 500 Naira per 1000 Word article I wrote. At the time, I was studying with a Tecno Y6 that had passed from my older sister to my older brother, then to me. (A generational phone 😅) I kept asking myself: How was I supposed to survive the department like this? To make things worse, my dad was battling prostate cancer. Asking for money wasn’t even an option. So on October 7th, 2020, in the heat of COVID, I did the only thing I thought I could do. I made this YouTube video begging good Nigerians to help me raise money for a laptop. That video is still online and yes… It’s embarrassing now 😅 Nobody watched it, and Not a single naira was raised. ----- That moment could have broken me. But instead, something clicked. I realized no one was coming to save me. So I decided to take control of my life. That same October; • I got my first Web3 gig as a community engager • The pay was ₦6,000 per month • It wasn’t much, but it was hope Then in December 2020, everything changed. • A VC paid me $500 to engage across the projects they invested in. For the first time in my life, I had real money in my hands. I withdrew ₦160,000, and I bought my first laptop. My First Laptop: That laptop is still with me today. I keep it with me as a reminder of my sheer grit and hustle. From that moment on, everything began to compound. I went on to work with and contribute to multiple Web3 and tech projects, building communities, onboarding users, managing growth, running programs, and shipping real impact across Africa. I grew from: • A student with no laptop • To help hundreds of people get jobs through my academy - The Void Academy (Many students from there are now earning working remotely) • To onboard tens of thousands of users across Africa • To manage ambassadors, communities, and growth teams Today: • I work as a User Acquisition & Marketing Manager earning a six-figure salary (₦) • I earn 6 figures (₦) bi-weekly from X creator payouts • I can afford any laptop I want • I use a phone I could only dream of back then And today… I’m officially launching the waitlist for my first product as a founder. ----- A Phone and A Dream (A Phone and A Dream | Waitlist Live) This product is deeply personal. Because I’ve lived this story. I know that talent is everywhere, but opportunity is not, and getting opportunities today starts with access to basic tools. A Phone and A Dream exists to change that. ----- So, what exactly is A Phone and A Dream? A Phone and A Dream is a social-impact platform that connects device donors with people who lack access to basic tech tools: students, builders, creators, and professionals, using the Avalanche🔺 blockchain to make every donation transparent, traceable, and impactful. We believe access to the right device can be the difference between potential and progress. I'm living proof of that, so are many of you reading this right now. This isn’t just about giving devices. It’s about unlocking opportunity. Devices that can be donated include: 1. Phones: Smartphones of all brands (Android & iOS) 2: Laptops: Windows laptops 3. MacBooks: ThinkPads and similar work machines 4. Tablets: iPads, Android tablets 5. Desktop PCs: Complete desktop setups 6. Monitors & Peripherals: Monitors/displays, Keyboards, Mice 7. External Storage: HDDs, SSDs, USB drives 8. Creator Tools: Ring lights, Microphones, Webcams, Tripods And this is important, Devices don’t have to be brand new. We accept: - New Devices - Used but functional devices - Devices that need refurbishing If it can be repaired, upgraded, or repurposed, it can still change a life. Many tech bros/girls buy a new device yearly; the old device you no longer use could be someone else’s first opportunity. ----- Benefits to You as a donor: You don’t just donate and hope for the best. You can: • Track every device donated • See where it goes • And you can follow the recipient milestones to keep updated with how they've effectively used the device (No more donations without accountability.) • You get to know the real impact of your generosity We’ve seen incredible people like I D R I S, Sir Dickson, SUPREMOS 🤍🐘, Ayilola of Nigeria /Laptop Guy 🩺 🇳🇬 🇬🇧🇺🇸, King.sol 🇶🇦 (with Rainbow's Adolf),Xeusthegreat (♟,♟), WILSON, C W E , Farmercist 👨‍🌾 🦅, just to name a few donate devices to people. The Laptop Guy (Ayilola of Nigeria /Laptop Guy 🩺 🇳🇬 🇬🇧🇺🇸) has been trying to help millions of Nigerians with devices. But one major challenge has always been tracking, reporting, and accountability on both end including the recipients, so he can tell the extent of his impact. That’s exactly what A Phone and A Dream solves. If you come onboard as a Donor on A Phone and A Dream | Waitlist Live, you get to see: • Where their device went • Who received it • What it enabled ----- Benefits to You as a recipient: You're not getting charity, you're receiving opportunity, access to tools that unlock learning, work, income, and dignity. So you don't pass through what I did. • You get a device after being approved • You get to participate in bounties, tasks, and hackathons on the platform to earn funds • You get a portfolio dashboard that you can consistently update your milestones and be accountable to your donor. ----- Lastly, we’re currently participating in the Avalanche Build Games Hackathon. This is me asking for your help, don't fade me again 😩. If you know: • Someone who can donate a device (new or refurbished) • Someone who can amplify this mission • Share the website with them • Also help me like, repost, quote, and share this post Please tag them in the comments, tag accounts that can help amplify this mission, and let the world see. Part of the rewards if we get selected and go on to win the hackathon will be used to fund new devices to go live on the platform. (Help us make this happen.) If you’re a recipient, you can visit our website (Website is in my bio and also in the comment) and join the waitlist. ⚠️ Important: The first batch of devices priority will go to users on the waitlist, our Day 1 champs. A Phone and A Dream is here to change lives by giving you access. You can help this mission by: • Tagging potential donors • Tagging amplifiers and your friends • Sharing our website • Encouraging people to join the waitlist Five years ago, I begged for a laptop. Today, I’m building a system so others don’t have to beg. ♥ The website is on my bio and in the comment, also see it on A Phone and A Dream | Waitlist Live's bio.

BIG JO | A Phone and A Dream 2026 📱 🐐

28,456 Aufrufe • vor 7 Monaten

"Anyone who leaked a [UFO] report...could be prosecuted under the Espionage Act...life in prison, or death." "Maybe we can reverse engineer this so we will have this incredible edge over the rest of the world." 🔥 Dr. Phil Had Me at The Bolender Memo 🔥 (Dr. Phil continued to kill it yesterday and this was better than the last one! Link to full video (21:52) is in the replies.) "Our government has been lying to us for more than 80 years. Ask yourself why? Why do they not want you to know this is going on?" (He starts out by showing that Google searches for "UFO" have allegedly nearly tripled since last Friday night, along with searches for UAP being up 400%. And "Dr. Phil UFO" is one of the fastest rising searches in the country. If all of that is true, it's a very good thing. Especially since he's been putting out some really good videos. He mentions the latest release (#4) of UFO/UAP files from the Pentagon last Friday.) "My team and I were granted early access, exclusive access to those documents before they went public." "Our government has been lying to us, by omission AND by intentional misdirection, for 79 years." "Look at these documents. You go back as far as 1947 where they have had clear information that there are objects not of this Earth, both technologically, metallurgically, performance-wise. But yet, that has been hidden from us. They've denied that, they've actually threatened people from talking about this. Threatened with careers, imprisonment, and some, with death, because they would consider it treason." (He backs it up with documents. See below.) Dr. Phil: "For 80 years, every time there was a legitimate UAP sighting and the U.S. government had a chance to get in there, they essentially told us, 'Nothing to see here. Move along.' To be clear, a UAP sighting is not proof of little green men or alien life. It means something happened, something was observed, something occurred for which we have no explanation. That's it. "Now, let's talk about that for a second. Things happen, and we don't have any explanation for it. We don't have technology that explains that. There's something that is observed in the sky, going at a speed, stopping, making a sharp turn, reversing direction, accelerating, changing altitudes, and we don't have anything on this Earth that can do that. That's what's called unexplained. "Now, do we know where it's from? How it does that? Well, if we did, it would be explained. But we don't. We go look at all of our secret weapons. We go look at what we know through intelligence, other countries have. And let me tell you, a lot of these (laughs) - they're not close calls. They are not close calls. And some of the things that have been observed, we damn sure didn't have anything like that in the 40s or the 50s or the 60s, and we still don't, now in 2020s. "But at the very same time, our government was telling us, 'Nothing to see here: weather balloon, reflection off of an airplane, just a weather anomaly.' And, the government was simultaneously threatening its own people with criminal penalties if they ever disclosed UAP information. "If somebody that was credible, that had seen this, spoke about it, they were threatened with all kinds of penalties. We were gaslighted. 'No big deal here. Probably weather balloons, misidentified aircraft.' And a jumpy public that watched, 'Close Encounters' one too many times, thinking, 'Look, what's really going on here?' "Behind the curtain, the government was spending generations of time and resources protecting this information. Was it happening? Yes, it was happening! Do we have proof of it happening? Yes, we have proof of it happening. And what I mean by that is we have this on radar. We have credible, military pilots reporting it. "We have aircraft that have guns, and when you open a gun and go live on a fighter, there's a camera that activates, so you have video of what the gun is shooting at. You have gun cameras. If they see one of these things in front of them, they open their weapons, in case they need them, and so it shoots video of what they're seeing. "Now let's talk about some of the proof. JANAP 146 - Joint Army, Navy, Air Force publication 146 - made it a criminal offense for military personnel and commercial airline pilots to discuss UFO sightings outside official channels. The penalty, 'up to 10 years in prison and a $10,000 fine.' "So, you might see some guy down on a lake, drinking beer, that talks about something he saw over the lake. Yeah, they don't mind that guy talking. But credible people? Trained observers with instrumentation? No. They say something, they're going to prison. "Well, that took effect upon receipt. No hearings, no debate. The regulation says, 'All persons aware of the contents or existence...are governed by...espionage laws.' So not just the pilot who filed a report under JANAP 146, anyone who leaked a report. Radio operators, airline staff, anyone in the chain could be prosecuted under the Espionage Act. "You can see this yourself. Declassified copies are online today, including on the NSA's website. Now what is the Espionage Act? That's the same law used to prosecute spies. Section 793: Up to 10 years in federal prison for every violation. Section 794: If the information reaches a foreign power, life in prison, or death. "Imagine you're a TWA captain in 1955. You see something over the Pacific you just simply can't explain. You file your report like the regulation requires. And from that moment, talk to a newspaper, tell your own wife, puts you in the same legal category as a spy. "Ask yourself why. Why are they so interested in muzzling all this conversation? Why do they not want you to know this is going on? Why are you not entitled to know what's happening in the air around you? "Now, let's fast forward 20 years, 1971. Oliver Harry Turner was an Australian nuclear scientist and intelligence officer, head of the nuclear branch of Australia's Joint Intelligence Organization. He was asked to assess the American response to the growing UAP issue. "If you're thinking, what does an Australian know about U.S. military secrets? Well, the possibility of life beyond this planet is bigger than any one country. Australia and the rest of the world has a legitimate interest in what the U.S. knows. And Australia is one of our closest intelligence allies. What we now call Five Eyes. "The Five Eyes countries are the United States, Britain, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. These countries have shared their most sensitive intelligence with each other since World War II. When a senior, Five Eyes nuclear intelligence officer writes a report about what the United States knows, well, that's serious. "He was outside the American classification system. He had no career to lose. He pieced this together from official CIA, Air Force, Congressional, and Project Blue Book records. Now this report was written May 27, 1971. Original classification: Secret. Title: Scientific and Intelligence Aspects of the UFO Problem. Report declassified by the National Archives of Australia in 2023. "On June 9th of 2026, whistleblower David Crusch (Yes, he said Crusch) stood on Capitol Hill and told the public to read pages seven through sixteen." ~ David Grusch: "There is a declassified 1971 Australian, formally-classified, Secret assessment that a couple years ago was put in the Australian National Archives. I encourage people to read page seven through sixteen, and that was the nuclear branch chief of the Australian government discussing the U.S. cover-up and the involvement of the CIA back in the 70s. And that's actually a little-known document that is publicly available." ~ Dr. Phil: "Now here's the kicker: foreign intelligence describing an American cover-up is now referenced in the files that our government is just now releasing. And here are six key findings in the Turner report. "Number one, what Turner called the facade of ridicule. Turner documents that early Air Force intelligence concluded, 'Some of these objects, 'had flight characteristics' that could best be explained as having 'extraterrestrial origin.' (The actual language says: "The early analysis of UFO reports by USAF intelligence indicated that real phenomena were being reported which had flight characteristics so far in advance of U.S. aircraft that only as extra-terrestrial origin could be envisaged." ) Dr. Phil: "Instead of telling the public, the CIA and Air Force adopted a deliberate debunking policy. "Now let that sit with you for a minute. Instead of telling the public, the CIA and Air Force adopted a deliberate debunking policy. We've got to get these people believing this isn't real. We've got to debunk this. "January 1953, Turner's own words: 'By erecting a facade of ridicule, the U.S. hoped to allay public alarm, reduce the possibility of the Soviet taking advantage of UFO mass sightings...and act as a cover-up so the U.S. can develop vehicles that emulate UFO performances.' "What's the point? Well, the point is, they were thinking, 'All right, let's keep this secret,' like we're the only ones seeing this, 'and maybe we can reverse engineer this so we will have this incredible edge over the rest of the world.' "That's a great goal, I guess, if you can go from flying-prop planes or early jets to this incredible speed. If these are extraterrestrial, and the nearest galaxy is Andromeda, which it takes two and a half million years to get to, flying at the speed of light, we're pretty far from being able to do that. "Today, in 2026, can we move at the speed of light? No. If we could, it would take two and a half million years to get to the next galaxy. We can't move at the speed of light, even now in 2026. But that was the goal. They'll find one of these and reverse engineer it." (I don't know whether or not any black program has tech that can move at the speed of light and I doubt Dr. Phil knows, either. Someone should show him what Lacatski said about being able to reverse engineer some of this acquired (alleged non-human) tech but "not to its full extent.") Dr. Phil: "Finding number two. He then talks about Project Sign. This was the U.S. Air Force's first official UFO investigation set up in late 1947. Its analysts reportedly concluded that extraterrestrial origin was the best explanation. Air Force Chief of Staff General Hoyt Vandenberg rejected that conclusion, and copies of the report were ordered destroyed. Destroyed! "And per Turner, in February 1949, members of Project Sign, 'either volunteered to leave or were compelled to leave,' and they were replaced by people, 'willing to ridicule the concept of UFOs.' "Think about this! We have sightings by legitimate observers with scientific instrumentation, and the people who are doing the observing are voluntarily leaving or compelled to leave, and replaced by people willing to ridicule the concept of UFOs. "Finding number three, what I spoke about earlier: JANAP 146. Up to 10 years in prison and a $10,000 fine for discussing sightings outside official channels. And per the regulation's own text, Chapter One, Section 102, it covered not just military personnel, but U.S. and Canadian civilian and commercial pilots. "That's legal force over airline pilots, arguably the most credible witnesses in the sky! What jurisdiction they had over Canadian pilots, I have no idea, but they listed 'em. "Turner documents a meeting between military intelligence and airline pilots at the Roosevelt Hotel in Hollywood. At that meeting, pilots were, 'coerced' to keep their sightings out of public view and inside official channels. Am I overstating it to say that there's been a cover-up, that we're being lied to? "Finding number four. But they missed the retirees. JANAP 146 only covered active service. Once you retired, you could talk. And three very senior men did so between 1953 and 1960. Admiral Roscoe Hillenkoetter, the first director of the CIA, Captain Edward Ruppelt, the man the Air Force put in charge of investigating UFOs, Major Dewey Fournet, the Pentagon's project officer on UFOs. Per Turner, all three publicly stated the U.S. government knew UFOs were extraterrestrial and was withholding the fact from the public! So when those three retired, they told the truth! "Finding five. The government then silenced retirees. Per Turner, the revised regulation JANAP 146e made UAP disclosure by retirees an offense under the Espionage Act. Then finding number six. 1969, 17 years, the Air Force ran a public-facing UFO investigation called Project Blue Book. If you wrote your congressman about a sighting, it went into the Blue Book. And in 1969, the Air Force shut down the Blue Book and told the country, 'We looked at more than 12,000 sightings. No problems. No national security threat. No need for the Blue Book.' "But a memo from General Carroll Bolender, the Air Force general, said the reason Blue Book showed no national security threats was because any national security threats were gag ordered under JANAP 146 and were quote, 'not part of the Blue Book system.' The serious reports never stopped; they just moved out of public view. "Now, I know that was a lot of information. You may need to listen back to that, but those are facts. Those are in the government's documents that have now been declassified! "If the government has known for decades that unidentified objects are flying through our skies, and therefore, we may not be alone in the Universe, then the greatest revelation in American history has also been the target of a huge cover-up. "One of the challenges of social media and TV news is taking something this complex and reducing it to sound bites. And you're getting bits and pieces from the media. That's why I invest so much time and energy giving you the real story. I don't want to tell you what you believe or don't believe, but I want to give you the information so you can make up your own mind. "This information is in the files, we just haven't had access to the files. And then when we get the files, we're given the files without any context. You see a radar screen and you see a blip, and then it moves. Well, what do you have to compare it to? Is it moving fast? Too fast? Unexplainably fast? Without any context, how are we supposed to interpret that? "Well, I'm digging in, I'm talking to experts, I'm finding out what the scale is. And what we're learning, is we don't have anything that'll move that fast. We don't have anything that'll turn that sharp. We don't have anything that will withstand those kind of G-forces."

Joe Murgia

51,113 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

What if I told you ripple:native just moved closer to a financial universe doing $17.5 TRILLION in FX and interest-rate derivatives every single day? I’m not talking about some random prediction. I’m talking about BIS Working Paper No. 1374. This is going to be a long read, because the headline barely scratches the surface. Four of the five authors work at the Bank for International Settlements, and instead of only mentioning XRP Ledger in theory, the researchers actually built, tested and published an open-source XRPL-based prototype. That distinction matters. This is a research implementation, not a production BIS deployment. But the technical choice itself is what caught me. The researchers needed a public blockchain that could help prove official economic and financial data had not been altered. They chose XRP Ledger. And they explained why: low fees, fast finality, developer resources and existing research around its consensus system. This wasn’t somebody adding an XRP logo to a presentation. They built the gateway. They created XRPL transactions. They used institutional anchoring wallets. They put cryptographic proofs inside transaction memos. They linked publisher identities to XRPL addresses. They retrieved those transactions again during verification. Then they measured how the system performed. Median publication latency came in around 3–5 seconds. Verification took around 1–2 seconds. That is where my brain immediately went beyond the headline. Because what exactly were they trying to verify? The kind of information the entire financial system runs on. -Inflation. -GDP. -Interest rates. -Banking statistics. -Debt information. -Financial-stability data. -Regulatory reporting. Imagine a central bank publishes an inflation number. Today that number gets copied everywhere. -Websites. -News terminals. -Databases. -Screenshots. -AI models. -Trading systems. Once it spreads across the internet, how does another machine independently prove that the number it received is exactly what the institution originally published? That is the problem BIS researchers were attacking. Their model creates a cryptographic fingerprint of the official dataset. Individual statistical series can receive fingerprints too. Those hashes are combined through a Merkle tree. A final Merkle root gets anchored to XRPL. The underlying economic data do not need to be dumped onto the blockchain. XRPL simply keeps the proof. Think of it like this: The official institution publishes the document. XRPL holds the tamper-proof receipt. Someone changes even one part of the underlying file? The cryptographic fingerprint changes. Now a bank, regulator, investor, trading engine or AI agent can check: Is this the original data? Has it been changed? Did it really come from the institution claiming to publish it? And that second part is where this paper gets even more serious. The BIS prototype combines the data proof with a W3C Verifiable Credential for the publisher. The publisher’s cryptographic identity is connected to an XRPL address. The paper even uses the format: did:xrpl: So you are not only verifying the information. You are verifying who published it. Now picture a financial world where machines can check both automatically. A central bank publishes CPI. A model receives it. Before touching money, the software checks XRPL. Correct file. Correct publisher. No alteration. Then it acts. That sounds simple until you realize what financial markets actually do with official data. -Rates move. -Currencies move. -Bond prices move. -Derivatives reprice. -Collateral requirements change. -Loans reset. -Inflation-linked instruments adjust. -Portfolio risk changes. And this is where BIS Working Paper 1374 stops being a boring statistics paper for me. Because the authors themselves discuss putting verified information beside digital financial assets. They specifically mention: -CBDCs -stablecoins -tokenized deposits -derivatives. That one section changes the entire way I look at this. The vision is not simply: “Put a hash on a blockchain.” It becomes: verified economic information + digital money + tokenized assets + automated execution. Now remember what Ripple has been building around XRPL. -Multi-Purpose Tokens. -Credentials. -Permissioned Domains. -Permissioned DEX infrastructure. -Confidential Transfers. -Stablecoins. -Institutional lending. -Tokenized collateral. -FX. -Onchain credit. And Ripple has repeatedly positioned XRP across payments, liquidity and credit. Now put those pieces beside what the BIS researchers are exploring. An official institution needs an identity. XRPL can represent identity and credentials. A regulated participant needs permission to enter a market. XRPL is building permissioned infrastructure. A bond needs trustworthy economic information. The BIS prototype shows one way that information can be authenticated through XRPL. A financial asset needs a digital representation. XRPL is being built for tokenization. A transaction needs money. Stablecoins and tokenized deposits can provide the cash side. Then all those different assets need liquidity. That is where ripple:native becomes much more interesting to me. But before getting there, look at the scale surrounding BIS itself. The BIS does not process the world’s $9.6 trillion of daily FX transactions. It measures that market through its Triennial Central Bank Survey. That distinction matters. According to the numbers in the context here: global OTC FX turnover = $9.6 TRILLION every day. Then add: OTC interest-rate derivatives turnover = $7.9 TRILLION every day. Together: $17.5 TRILLION per day. Just the FX number annualized across roughly 250 trading days comes to around: $2.4 QUADRILLION per year. That is the financial universe BIS research sits over. -Currencies. -Banks. -Central banks. -FX swaps. -Rates. -Derivatives. -Cross-border capital. -Collateral. -Dollar funding. And researchers inside that institution just chose XRP Ledger for an actual technical prototype. That is why I keep telling people not to reduce this to transaction fees. Yes, the worked example uses an XRPL Payment transaction. Yes, the reference cost is only: 10 drops = 0.00001 XRP. Yes, transaction fees on XRPL are destroyed. So if this kind of anchoring eventually ran on mainnet, publishing data itself would consume XRP. But that is not the part that gets me excited. The fee is intentionally tiny. The much bigger question is: What happens when verified information starts triggering financial activity on the same broader infrastructure? The paper itself talks about: inflation-linked products perpetual futures tokenized financial instruments derivative settlement interest payments automated compliance and even: automated monetary-policy applications. Now we are talking about information causing money to move. Imagine an inflation-linked bond. The government publishes inflation. That release gets cryptographically anchored. The bond checks the proof. The CPI number is verified. The contract adjusts what is owed. Digital cash settles the payment. No one has to manually copy a number from a website into another system. No one has to blindly trust a third-party data feed. The financial instrument can verify the economic input itself. That is the idea I keep coming back to: self-verifying finance. And the researchers even discuss using the XRPL EVM-compatible sidechain for more advanced applications where data verification and programmable financial execution exist in the same broader ecosystem. They mention: access controls, permissioning, automated compliance, multisignature requirements, oracle integration, programmable validation. Now connect that with Ripple’s institutional roadmap. Credentials can prove who a participant is. Permissioned Domains can define who belongs inside a regulated environment. Tokenized assets can represent financial instruments. RLUSD can represent digital dollar liquidity. Lending can make those assets productive. XRP can provide native network resources and, where economically useful, liquidity between fragmented assets. That is a very different picture of XRPL than the one people were arguing about years ago. It is not simply: “Can XRP send a payment quickly?” The question becomes: Can XRPL sit underneath parts of a machine-readable financial system? And Working Paper 1374 just gave that question much more weight for me. There is another section that barely gets discussed. The architecture is not limited to one data publisher. The researchers designed a multi-publisher system. Different institutions can create their own Merkle roots. Those roots can be combined into one larger super-root. One XRPL transaction can anchor that shared proof. Yet each publisher remains independently accountable for its own data. Now imagine the participants. Central Bank A. Central Bank B. Regulator C. Statistical Office D. International Organization E. One public verification system. Different publishers. Independent cryptographic accountability. That begins to resemble infrastructure for cross-border public-sector data exchange. And the paper’s own conclusion talks about trustworthy exchange among: national statistical offices central banks international organizations. Then look at who already uses the statistical standard the paper builds around. SDMX is sponsored by institutions including: BIS European Central Bank Eurostat International Monetary Fund OECD United Nations World Bank Group International Labour Organization. That does not mean those institutions are adopting XRPL. But it tells you something important about the design philosophy. The researchers did not create a blockchain system that requires the existing financial world to throw everything away. They designed it to sit underneath an existing institutional standard. That matters a lot. Because the easiest technology to adopt is often the technology that does not force everyone to rebuild from zero. Existing systems can continue publishing. XRPL can provide the cryptographic proof underneath. Then comes BIS Open Tech. The paper says the open-source reference implementation is being released as a prototype through BIS Open Tech and the SDMX community. That means other institutions can inspect it. Reuse it. Modify it. Build on it. This is how technical ideas can spread inside serious institutions. Not through hype. Through code. Documentation. Standards. Reuse. That is the kind of adoption path I pay attention to. Then there is the AI angle. This is where the whole thesis becomes almost unfairly interesting. The authors explicitly discuss AI agents. An AI system receives economic information. Instead of blindly trusting what it scraped from somewhere, it can ask: Is this data authentic? It checks the XRPL proof. Valid? Continue. Invalid? Do nothing. Now compare that with what Ripple launched in June 2026: the XRPL AI Starter Kit, designed around autonomous agents making payments with XRP and RLUSD. Two completely separate directions suddenly sit beside each other. BIS research: AI verifies information through XRPL. Ripple ecosystem: AI moves value through XRPL. Now imagine both ideas eventually meeting. An agent receives official inflation data. It verifies the release cryptographically. It recalculates risk. It reprices a bond. It adjusts collateral. It changes an FX position. It executes a payment. It settles in RLUSD. It routes through XRP where XRP is the best available liquidity path. That is machine-native finance. And now go back to the scale. The BIS 2025 Triennial Survey says: $9.6T/day FX. The dollar appears on one side of 89% of FX trades. The euro is involved in 28.9%. The Japanese yen in 16.8%. FX swaps alone are around $4T every day. Then another $7.9T/day exists in OTC interest-rate derivatives turnover. Think about what happens if only part of those markets becomes tokenized. Digital USD deposits. Digital EUR deposits. Tokenized JPY. RLUSD. CBDCs. Tokenized Treasuries. Interest-rate derivatives. FX derivatives. Collateral. Money-market instruments. The first problem is getting the assets onchain. The second is verifying the information those assets depend on. The third is moving liquidity between all the different forms of value. This BIS paper attacks the second problem using XRPL. Ripple has spent years attacking the first and third. That is why the combination gets my attention. And you do not need XRPL to capture the whole market for the numbers to become enormous. For scale only: 0.1% of $9.6T daily FX turnover = $9.6B per day. 1% = $96B per day. Again, that is not a forecast. It shows what even tiny percentages mean when the underlying market is measured in trillions every day. And that is only FX. It does not include the additional $7.9T/day of interest-rate derivatives turnover BIS measures. This is where the XRP liquidity thesis changes from a crypto argument into a market-structure argument. Suppose the future has hundreds of tokenized currencies and financial products. Every possible pair cannot maintain perfect direct liquidity. USD token / EUR token. EUR token / JPY token. JPY token / RLUSD. RLUSD / Treasury token. Treasury token / derivative. Derivative / deposit token. The combinations explode. A common intermediate asset becomes useful whenever routing through it provides a better market. That is where XRP’s role becomes interesting. Not replacing the dollar. Not replacing the euro. Not replacing CBDCs. Not replacing bank deposits. Connecting liquidity between them when that route makes economic sense. Now imagine the system is automated. No trader needs to shout: “Use XRP.” Software looks at: price, spread, depth, settlement, availability. If the XRP path wins, the software uses XRP. That is the outcome I care about. Machine-selected liquidity. And if those transactions grow large enough, the XRP market itself has to change. Institutional market makers need inventory. Liquidity providers need inventory. Prime brokers need financing capacity. Order books need deeper capital. Large transactions need to clear without huge price impact. That is where the price thesis becomes different from retail speculation. If XRP ever helps support institutional flows inside markets measured in trillions per day, the relevant question is not: “How many retail holders bought today?” It becomes: How much dollar liquidity does the XRP market need to represent? That is an entirely different valuation conversation. There is one more thing I think people are missing. BIS Working Paper 1374 does not only talk about SDMX statistics. The researchers say the same architecture can extend to: XBRL regulatory filings FINREP COREP and other forms of structured official information. Now imagine banks submitting regulatory reports that receive immutable XRPL proofs. The bank cannot quietly change an old filing later. The regulator can verify the exact version. Auditors can verify it. Another authority can verify it. AI software can consume it. One system can prove both: who submitted the data and whether it changed. That gives XRPL a potential role far beyond payments. It starts touching the information layer of finance. And this is why the line “BIS used XRP Ledger” actually undersells the paper. What happened is more specific. Researchers inside BIS took a real institutional problem. They selected XRPL. They built a working implementation. They measured performance. They published the code direction. Then they explored how authenticated data could coexist with: CBDCs, stablecoins, tokenized deposits, derivatives, AI agents, automated financial instruments. That is what I am bullish on. Not a logo. Not a rumor. Not a screenshot. Technical work. And when I look at the direction Ripple is independently pushing XRPL, the overlap is hard for me to ignore. Trusted identities. Verified information. Regulated participants. Tokenized assets. Digital money. Automated execution. Credit. Collateral. FX. Liquidity. AI. Put together, the long-term architecture can look like this: Official institutions publish information. XRPL anchors the proof. Banks and regulators verify it. AI consumes it. Tokenized instruments use it. Stablecoins and tokenized deposits provide cash. Institutional markets execute trades. XRP supplies native network resources and can supply cross-asset liquidity where the route makes sense. That is not simply a faster payment network. That starts looking like part of a digital financial operating system. And then remember where this conversation is happening. Inside the research world of the institution that measures: $9.6 trillion of FX turnover every day plus $7.9 trillion of interest-rate derivatives turnover every day. A combined: $17.5 TRILLION DAILY. No, that is not XRPL volume. No, BIS does not process those trades. The significance is that BIS researchers just tested XRP Ledger while working inside the institutional world surrounding markets of that size. That is the fact. And now I’m asking the question that matters to me as an ripple:native holder: What happens if XRPL earns even a small role inside the tokenized version of that financial system? Because 0.1% of a trillion-dollar market is not small. And this market is not one trillion. It is trillions every single day. That is why Working Paper 1374 changed the scale of the conversation for me. For years, people asked whether XRP could become part of the future financial system. Now researchers inside the BIS have taken XRP Ledger, built institutional infrastructure on it, and explicitly discussed a future combining trusted information with digital money and programmable financial assets. We are still at the prototype stage. But for me, the direction is the real story. The next financial system will need trusted data, tokenized assets, automated execution and deep liquidity. XRPL is now showing up in all four conversations. And XRP sits natively underneath the network where those pieces can eventually meet. $17.5T a day. Now look at your ripple:native bag again. Enough?

X Finance Bull

68,367 Aufrufe • vor 16 Tagen

$AMD is easily a $1,200 stock IMO| CPUs TAM 🧵 Not Financial Advice! DYOR! In this thread, I want to discuss the actual TAM for CPUs data center for just 2026, where many are giving different ranges, where I don't agree with. I will explain in detail why I disagree with these research firms and financial analysts using Math. And this thread should not be treated as Financial Advice. I'm just explaining my research and thought process so we can have a discussion. In 2024/2025, I gave out $620 PT for FY2026 was too conservative for AMD potential. At the time, It was early and many were just laughing, that PT was unrealistic and the AI world is run on GPUs only. Today, most of these folks are laughing with me. That is ok, I dont offer financial advice, and I do not need everyone to agree with me. I respect other opinions. If you enjoy this kind of thread, slap the like/repost/bookmark. If you want to support my work further and gain more in-depth analysis, consider subscribe! In early 2026, hyperscalers, enterprises, and OEMs are scrambling as Intel and AMD server CPUs are largely sold out for the year, with prices jumping 10–20% and lead times stretching from weeks to months (or longer for certain SKUs). What was once a GPU dominated story has flipped: the shift to explosive Agentic AI with its multi-step reasoning loops, tool calling, multi-agent orchestration, real-time data movement, and reinforcement learning, is dramatically tightening CPU:GPU ratios from the old training-era 1:4–8 all the way to 1:1 to 5:1 or even CPU-heavy configurations. CEOs across NVIDIA, AMD, Intel, Google, Meta, Microsoft, and public companies have been sounding the alarm on CNBC, Bloomberg, and earnings calls. CPUs are “cool again,” and in many agentic deployments they are becoming the new bottleneck alongside (or even ahead of) GPUs and custom ASICs. In 2025, roughly 12-15m AI GPUs + AI ASICs GPUs shipped, and is expect to be 15-20m units by 2026, where it suggesting Training demand is not going away. The actual TAM is structural, multiplicative demand that has already forced AMD to double its long-term server CPU TAM forecast to >$120 billion by 2030 (>35% CAGR), with Dr. Lisa Su noting Q2 2026 server CPU sales expected to surge 70%+ year-over-year and demand “far exceeding expectations.” At the same time, AMD’s secured 30–40% share of TSMC’s initial 2nm capacity (behind only Apple’s >50%) positions it to ramp Zen 6-based EPYC Venice exactly when this agentic wave hits hardest but even that aggressive five-fab 2nm expansion (with plans scaling toward 11 total advanced facilities) cannot instantly close the gap in the near-term. Supply constraints on wafers, advanced packaging, and power are compounding the squeeze, just as hyperscalers forward-buy and lock in long-term deals. 1. The actual potential TAM Various sources and institutions are giving $50-$160-$200B CPUs TAM toward 2030, and i disagree, where supply is severely behind vs Demand by at least 2-3 years or even longer by some estimates. The actual TAM will probably be 15-20m for FY2026. The typical average selling price from low to high end is $5,000 to $15,000, but due to rising memory, and different inflationary pressures on Semi, it would be more logical to think between $7,000-17,000. A. CPU:GPU Ratio at 1:1 A basic calucation at mid range =12,000 x 15-20m CPUs= $180-$240B TAM B. CPU:GPU Ratio at 5:1 = $12,000 x 75m-100m CPUs= $900B-$1.2T TAM Of course TSMC cannot even supply 20% of this massive inflection TAM in 2026. But do we think of Demand for TAM or Supply for TAM? Hence we are seeing massive 2nm Ramp from TSMC for $AMD. IMO, conservatively, I would take down 15-20% on 1:1 or $135-$192B TAM for just 2026. Im not even talking about 2030. We are just months into this, it is impossible to estimate Cagr atm, but this is 1-5 agents running tasks, I wrote a thread on 24/7 autonomous agents thread, where companies could use 50-250 agents to run tasks for them 24/7. It would require a different structural CPU:GPU to bring down the cost of token as well as handling the Orchestration bottleneck. GPUs would be useless and sit idle waiting for CPU due to highly CPU-intensive nature. The cost per Million tokens must come down more rapidly for this 50-250 autonomous agents to work, otherwise the token cost would be too enormous. Helios Rack is estimated to bring inference cost down to $0.0003-$0.0005/M tokens with 18 EPYC Venices along with 72 MI455x and other chips+ Components. A heavier or CPUs dense rack would bring down inference cost further. EPYC Verano(2027 gen 7 AI-optimized) is expected to drive inference costs meaningfully lower than the Venice baseline likely to the $0.00002–$0.00025 per million tokens range (or even sub-$0.00015 in highly optimized agentic/batch workloads). Verano have higher core counts than Venice, LPDDR5X SOCAMM2 memory support, more AI optimized and Next-Gen rack density & efficiency. 2. $AMD secured at least 30-40% of TSMC 2nm capacity and Memory from Samsung through 2028-2030. 2 2nm fabs are entering ramping phase toward 60-65k wafers per months and 5 dedicated 2nm fabs entering mass production/ramp in 2026. Will link sub threads below if you are interest for full detail. Apple is reported to secure 50%+ 2nm capacity for Iphone 18 and Mac chips and AMD secured at least 30-40% capacity while $NVDA $AVGO $ARM $AMZN $GOOGL and others are on 3nm. This broader aggressive ramp from TSMC to target up to 11 fabs is to address $AMD massive growth ahead. Where $ARM is facing massive CPUs supply constraints as they have to compete with other Mega Cap players on 3nm allocation. And $INTC is also facing supply constraints for data center CPUs and PC per management with lead times extrended to longer than 12 weeks. Dr. Su is aiming for higher than 50%+ Market share, and I believe it is achievable in 2026 or 2027 as AMD has the strongest CPUs offerings. Dr. Su did not want to take advantage of the shortage and she said during the Q1 earning call, AMD is prioritizing Units shipped while guiding margin to be inching 60%. If Jensen were in charge, I'm sure margin would be 70-75% in this kind of severe CPUs shortage condition. But that is not how Dr. Su operates for more than a decade. She wants most market share. So we will see it in revenue growth, but as TSMC ramps faster and faster, AMD Operating and FCF margin will massively improve vs prior decade. A significantly higher margin profile than before. 3. How I came up with $1,200 withint 12-18 months? At $1,200/ share, that would be around $2 Trillion MC. I expect FY2027 revenue to be $124-$144B where data center revenue dominates overall revenue. AI GPUs: I will stick to the lowest end so show u that I'm conservative at $18B for each GW vs $NVDA Rubin is $30B+ (most likely Helios Rack in the $20B+ due to memory price rising). We know deals with OpenAI and Meta are around 12GW and additional multi-customers at multi-GW scale were hinted and will be revealed as we get to July 22-23 2026 Advancing AI event. For now I will conservatively add a bit more to this model. (3-6GW Helios Rack Range) EPYC Venice is reported to be in $15,000-$20,000. However large customers will likely to enjoy $10-$12k discount. I expect AMD to be able to ramp 7m EPYC Venice for entire 2026 and 3-4m of EPYC Verano(higher price than Venice). If we take an average selling price of $10,000 to be on the conservative side. Take down another 30% to be even more conservative on projection. I like to be conservative. That would be ~ 7m EPYC CPUs(Venice + Verano) for FY2027 or 583,000 units per month or 15,000 additional 2nm wafers per month which is completely reasonable for current TSMC Ramp, and I may be too conservative here. EPYC Verano and MI500 series will also be on 2nm. AI GPUs: 3GW x $18B= $54B EPYC CPUs: $10k x 7m CPUs= $70B = Data center revenue alone is $124B Other segments= probably in the $20-$25B FY 2027. FY2027 revenue = $124-$149B At 7m EPYC CPUs for entire 2027, that would be more than 50% market share when we comp it to availability from supply side, not from total Demand. It is possible that TSMC could significantly ramp even more capacity in 2027, so we will see. Metric Q1 2026 FY2027 Gross Margin 55-56% 60-62% Operating Margin 25-26% 32-35% Net Income Margin ~22% 26-30% FCF Margin 25% 28-30% At $124-$149B Revenue FY 2027 Net Income would be $32-$44B EPS would be $20-$27 (GAAP) Non-GAAP would be $25-$31 At $1,200 a share or $2T valuation that would be: 13.4-16x Price to Sales (P/S) 38-48 P/E At this kind of growth of AI SuperCycle, I think it is very reasonable valuation. If we use today at $406/share or $661B MC: 2027 P/S = 4.4x-5.3x 2027 P/E = 13x-16x Is AMD today expensive or cheap to you? Above is already a very conservative where I trimmed 20-30% of doable units. Meaning, there could be upside if TSMC is able to ramp meaningfully like they are planning. Conclusion: A $1,200 per share valuation IMO for AMD in FY2027 is not expensive at all; it is, in fact, conservative when viewed against the structural explosion in agentic AI demand we have mapped out. With server CPU TAM potentially scaling into the $100–$200B+ range in just CPU:GPU 1:1 Ratio for just 2026. AMD positioned to capture 50%+ share thanks to its 2nm TSMC allocation advantage and full-stack leadership, the company could realistically deliver $124–149B in total revenue and $25–$31+ non-GAAP EPS. At those levels, $1,200 implies a 2027 P/E = 13x-16x. Entirely reasonable for a company that will have become the clear Inference Queen (and in many workloads the preferred) AI infrastructure provider, with operating margins expanding above 30% and tens of billions in high-margin rack-scale AI revenue. Dr. Lisa Su was right presciently so about the Agentic AI inflection all the way back to her early 2022–2023 commentary on the coming shift from pure training to inference and orchestration-heavy workloads. While the broader market only fully woke up to this in 2026 when she doubled AMD’s long-term server CPU TAM forecast to >$120B by 2030 (with >35% CAGR), Dr. Su and her team have consistently positioned the company at the center of the CPU renaissance. The explosive demand we are seeing today, sold-out lines, rising ASPs, and hyperscalers forward-buying entire gigawatts of Helios-class systems is exactly the outcome she forecasted years ago. Not Financial Advice! DYOR!

Mike

399,806 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten