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🇺🇸🇮🇷 The last time this escalation spiral started, economic catastrophe forced a deal in weeks. Joshua Landis explains why Iran is betting history repeats itself. "If the Iran didn't open the Straits of Hormuz and oil reserves would have run out in four weeks, we had to make a... show more

Mario Nawfal

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59,724 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten •via X (Twitter)

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🇮🇷 🇺🇸 Iran is signaling that any U.S. economic blockade would trigger a military response rather than force Tehran to back down. Middle East analyst Joshua Landis says recent Iranian strikes were designed to warn Washington that pressure on the Strait of Hormuz would not remain an economic contest. Instead, he argues, Tehran would expand the battlefield by targeting U.S. assets and regional infrastructure, turning sanctions into a wider kinetic conflict. His assessment is that Tehran is trying to convince Washington that economic warfare cannot remain separate from military escalation. Joshua Landis

🇮🇷 🇺🇸 Iran is signaling that any U.S. economic blockade would trigger a military response rather than force Tehran to back down. Middle East analyst Joshua Landis says recent Iranian strikes were designed to warn Washington that pressure on the Strait of Hormuz would not remain an economic contest. Instead, he argues, Tehran would expand the battlefield by targeting U.S. assets and regional infrastructure, turning sanctions into a wider kinetic conflict. His assessment is that Tehran is trying to convince Washington that economic warfare cannot remain separate from military escalation. Joshua Landis

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🇺🇸 🇮🇷 The decision to bomb Iran was made not this year, but back in 2015. Director of Middle East Studies Joshua Landis traces the logic straight to a Netanyahu back-channel with Trump. "For Iran to become wealthy by being able to export its oil and having sanctions lifted would be a greater danger to Israel than to scrap the deal and to keep it under sanctions." Embarrassment is just the surface. The architecture of this war was built a decade ago. Joshua Landis

🇺🇸 🇮🇷 The decision to bomb Iran was made not this year, but back in 2015. Director of Middle East Studies Joshua Landis traces the logic straight to a Netanyahu back-channel with Trump. "For Iran to become wealthy by being able to export its oil and having sanctions lifted would be a greater danger to Israel than to scrap the deal and to keep it under sanctions." Embarrassment is just the surface. The architecture of this war was built a decade ago. Joshua Landis

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🇮🇷🇺🇸 The guy who wrote "The Art of the Deal" is now the textbook case for how not to make one. Middle East scholar Joshua Landis lays out the pattern on repeat: Trump strikes Iran, Iran comes back with tougher demands, Trump gets angry and strikes again, and somehow keeps being surprised that the demands got even bigger. "That's how war works when a country wins. They're the ones that set the conditions." Every round of bombing has been handing Tehran a stronger hand to negotiate with. Joshua Landis

🇮🇷🇺🇸 The guy who wrote "The Art of the Deal" is now the textbook case for how not to make one. Middle East scholar Joshua Landis lays out the pattern on repeat: Trump strikes Iran, Iran comes back with tougher demands, Trump gets angry and strikes again, and somehow keeps being surprised that the demands got even bigger. "That's how war works when a country wins. They're the ones that set the conditions." Every round of bombing has been handing Tehran a stronger hand to negotiate with. Joshua Landis

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Mark Levin CRASHS OUT on Trump After Iran MoU Before the Iran MoU Levin was calling Trump the greatest president and the first Jewish President. Now, Levin is accusing Trump of Bullying Trump. Why wear and have an American flag when you are Israel first. Trump said it himself, oil reserves would have run out in 4 weeks without an Iran deal.

Mark Levin CRASHS OUT on Trump After Iran MoU Before the Iran MoU Levin was calling Trump the greatest president and the first Jewish President. Now, Levin is accusing Trump of Bullying Trump. Why wear and have an American flag when you are Israel first. Trump said it himself, oil reserves would have run out in 4 weeks without an Iran deal.

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🚨 BREAKING: 🇺🇸🇮🇷 PRESIDENT TRUMP JUST SAID ABOUT IRAN: "THE DEAL WAS SIGNED. THE HORMUZ IS ALREADY PARTIALLY OPEN." OIL PRICES ARE DUMPING ON THIS NEWS AND THE U.S. MARKET IS GROWING THE US-IRAN WAR IS FINALLY ENDING!!

🚨 BREAKING: 🇺🇸🇮🇷 PRESIDENT TRUMP JUST SAID ABOUT IRAN: "THE DEAL WAS SIGNED. THE HORMUZ IS ALREADY PARTIALLY OPEN." OIL PRICES ARE DUMPING ON THIS NEWS AND THE U.S. MARKET IS GROWING THE US-IRAN WAR IS FINALLY ENDING!!

ᴛʀᴀᴄᴇʀ

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Bombs are still falling, and Tehran is already saying it will never be the first to ask for talks. Joshua Landis breaks down why military pressure may be doing the opposite of what Washington intends. "If the US believes that it can force the Islamic Republic to request negotiations by increasing pressure and military action against Iran, it is gravely mistaken." The Strait of Hormuz is still on the table, and nobody knows what the Iranians told the Omanis the day before they closed it. Joshua Landis

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Bombs are still falling, and Tehran is already saying it will never be the first to ask for talks. Joshua Landis breaks down why military pressure may be doing the opposite of what Washington intends. "If the US believes that it can force the Islamic Republic to request negotiations by increasing pressure and military action against Iran, it is gravely mistaken." The Strait of Hormuz is still on the table, and nobody knows what the Iranians told the Omanis the day before they closed it. Joshua Landis

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🇺🇸 🇮🇷 Joshua Landis says the fight over the Strait of Hormuz is ultimately about American power and prestige, not whether Iran would permanently choke off global oil supplies. The Middle East analyst argues U.S. dominance in the Gulf has long underpinned its role as the world's leading superpower, giving Washington strategic leverage over global energy flows. But he contends Iran has every incentive to keep oil moving, since its own economy depends on exports. Losing exclusive dominance in the Gulf would damage U.S. credibility, but not necessarily trigger a collapse of the global energy system. Joshua Landis

🇺🇸 🇮🇷 Joshua Landis says the fight over the Strait of Hormuz is ultimately about American power and prestige, not whether Iran would permanently choke off global oil supplies. The Middle East analyst argues U.S. dominance in the Gulf has long underpinned its role as the world's leading superpower, giving Washington strategic leverage over global energy flows. But he contends Iran has every incentive to keep oil moving, since its own economy depends on exports. Losing exclusive dominance in the Gulf would damage U.S. credibility, but not necessarily trigger a collapse of the global energy system. Joshua Landis

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NEW: "If we didn't do this deal, we could have dropped more bombs for another three weeks, two weeks, four weeks, two years." President Trump says the agreement reached with Iran accomplished his core objectives: ending the conflict, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and, most importantly, preventing Iran from ever obtaining a nuclear weapon. He says military action could have continued indefinitely without delivering the same outcome, while pointing to surging markets and falling oil prices as signs of immediate economic impact.

NEW: "If we didn't do this deal, we could have dropped more bombs for another three weeks, two weeks, four weeks, two years." President Trump says the agreement reached with Iran accomplished his core objectives: ending the conflict, reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and, most importantly, preventing Iran from ever obtaining a nuclear weapon. He says military action could have continued indefinitely without delivering the same outcome, while pointing to surging markets and falling oil prices as signs of immediate economic impact.

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 President Donald Trump is reportedly ready to end the war with Iran if Tehran reopens the Strait of Hormuz, even without reaching a nuclear deal, according to the WSJ.

🇺🇸🇮🇷 President Donald Trump is reportedly ready to end the war with Iran if Tehran reopens the Strait of Hormuz, even without reaching a nuclear deal, according to the WSJ.

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump on where things stand with the Iran peace deal: "The deal is all signed. And the Strait of Hormuz is already partially opened. And the main thing is that Iran will not have a nuclear weapon."

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump on where things stand with the Iran peace deal: "The deal is all signed. And the Strait of Hormuz is already partially opened. And the main thing is that Iran will not have a nuclear weapon."

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Wait. So Trump’s Iran deal is now being negotiated by his buddy Steve Witkoff, a billionaire real estate developer, and his son-in-law Jared Kushner? Not a seasoned career diplomat or nuclear expert in sight. 🚩 Trump is desperately making a bad deal because of oil. At the G7, he admitted we’d “run out of reserves in about four weeks.”

Wait. So Trump’s Iran deal is now being negotiated by his buddy Steve Witkoff, a billionaire real estate developer, and his son-in-law Jared Kushner? Not a seasoned career diplomat or nuclear expert in sight. 🚩 Trump is desperately making a bad deal because of oil. At the G7, he admitted we’d “run out of reserves in about four weeks.”

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🇺🇸 Trump: “If Iran fails to sign a deal we will resume the war” 🇮🇷 Iran: “If war breaks out again and our oil exports are blocked, Iran will block the exit of oil from the entire region!” 💥 Try us. Hormuz stays in Iran’s hands. Empire playing with fire! 💪🇮🇷

🇺🇸 Trump: “If Iran fails to sign a deal we will resume the war” 🇮🇷 Iran: “If war breaks out again and our oil exports are blocked, Iran will block the exit of oil from the entire region!” 💥 Try us. Hormuz stays in Iran’s hands. Empire playing with fire! 💪🇮🇷

The Iran Spectator

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🇺🇲🇮🇷 Is Trump staying in this war because he thinks he can win it, or because he can't stand to lose it? That's the split Prof. Joshua Landis lays out, and he's not sure which one is actually driving the decision. Landis argues the U.S.-Iran standoff has taken on the shape of a forever war. Not because either side wants that, but because neither can find an exit that doesn't look like defeat. Trump is betting Iran cracks first under economic pressure. Iran is betting Washington blinks first as gas prices and inflation climb into the midterms. Both sides are convinced time is on their side. But Landis sees the asymmetry Trump isn't accounting for. Every time Washington escalates, Iran comes back to the table with harder demands, not softer ones, because that's what winners do. Hit Iran, and instead of folding, they raise the price. It's a pattern Landis says has repeated itself for months, and one Trump's own advisors reportedly can't fully explain to him. Then there's the coalition problem. The new Pakistan-Turkey-Saudi defense pact gets called symbolic, but Landis reads it as something sharper: regional powers hedging against an American ally that keeps making moves nobody asked for. Turkey doesn't want to be dragged into hitting Iran. Saudi Arabia doesn't want to eat Iranian strikes on its refineries for a war it didn't choose. Everyone's watching Washington burn trust they spent decades building. And the part that should worry Gulf capitals most: Landis argues China and Russia are quietly rooting for exactly this outcome; a drawn-out American quagmire that drains carriers, munitions, and political capital, at zero cost to Beijing or Moscow. Landis says this stopped being strategy and is now a country that dug itself a hole and can't find the shovel that got it there. Does Trump actually walk away before November, or does the hole get deeper first? Joshua Landis

🇺🇲🇮🇷 Is Trump staying in this war because he thinks he can win it, or because he can't stand to lose it? That's the split Prof. Joshua Landis lays out, and he's not sure which one is actually driving the decision. Landis argues the U.S.-Iran standoff has taken on the shape of a forever war. Not because either side wants that, but because neither can find an exit that doesn't look like defeat. Trump is betting Iran cracks first under economic pressure. Iran is betting Washington blinks first as gas prices and inflation climb into the midterms. Both sides are convinced time is on their side. But Landis sees the asymmetry Trump isn't accounting for. Every time Washington escalates, Iran comes back to the table with harder demands, not softer ones, because that's what winners do. Hit Iran, and instead of folding, they raise the price. It's a pattern Landis says has repeated itself for months, and one Trump's own advisors reportedly can't fully explain to him. Then there's the coalition problem. The new Pakistan-Turkey-Saudi defense pact gets called symbolic, but Landis reads it as something sharper: regional powers hedging against an American ally that keeps making moves nobody asked for. Turkey doesn't want to be dragged into hitting Iran. Saudi Arabia doesn't want to eat Iranian strikes on its refineries for a war it didn't choose. Everyone's watching Washington burn trust they spent decades building. And the part that should worry Gulf capitals most: Landis argues China and Russia are quietly rooting for exactly this outcome; a drawn-out American quagmire that drains carriers, munitions, and political capital, at zero cost to Beijing or Moscow. Landis says this stopped being strategy and is now a country that dug itself a hole and can't find the shovel that got it there. Does Trump actually walk away before November, or does the hole get deeper first? Joshua Landis

Mario Nawfal

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 U.S. signals that an Iran deal is close, but is it? The final details are allegedly being worked out. U.S. forces will remain in the region for 30 days to strike Iran if it violates the deal, while Iran gets oil sanctions waivers and billions in frozen funds. -> Iran denies the full toll-free opening of the Strait of Hormuz, as stated by the Trump Administration. Will there be a deal? Am I wrong in my assessment that U.S.-Iran tensions will remain in an Iran-like situation for a longer time?

🇺🇸🇮🇷 U.S. signals that an Iran deal is close, but is it? The final details are allegedly being worked out. U.S. forces will remain in the region for 30 days to strike Iran if it violates the deal, while Iran gets oil sanctions waivers and billions in frozen funds. -> Iran denies the full toll-free opening of the Strait of Hormuz, as stated by the Trump Administration. Will there be a deal? Am I wrong in my assessment that U.S.-Iran tensions will remain in an Iran-like situation for a longer time?

Lord Bebo

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If a U.S.-Iran agreement is signed and the Strait of Hormuz opens, gas and good prices are “not going to fall like a rock overnight,” says IBM Vice Chairman Gary Cohn. “We’re going to be in a psychological change when the straits open and as oil starts flowing out,” Cohn says. “If we open the straits, I think we will continue to see these gas prices come down.”

If a U.S.-Iran agreement is signed and the Strait of Hormuz opens, gas and good prices are “not going to fall like a rock overnight,” says IBM Vice Chairman Gary Cohn. “We’re going to be in a psychological change when the straits open and as oil starts flowing out,” Cohn says. “If we open the straits, I think we will continue to see these gas prices come down.”

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump may have reached the point where every option makes America's position worse. Middle East expert Joshua Landis says Iran isn't just retaliating to U.S. pressure anymore. It's deliberately expanding the battlefield to convince Washington that escalation carries a higher cost than compromise. Start with the recent strikes. An American response inside Iran is followed by Iranian attacks on U.S. assets in Jordan and on ships in Egypt. If Washington turns to economic warfare or tries to blockade Iran, Tehran will simply drag the conflict back into military escalation. Landis agrees. He argues the White House still believes it can force Iran to back down by gradually degrading its economy, missile capabilities and military infrastructure. But every new round of pressure pushes Iran to widen the conflict instead, creating economic pain for America's regional partners and demonstrating that no country is insulated from the consequences. Egypt is the perfect example. Even if American ships are the intended target, attacks near Egypt threaten tourism, Suez Canal traffic and one of the region's most fragile economies. The point isn't necessarily Egypt itself. It's proving that pressure on Iran can quickly become pressure on everyone else. That brings Landis to the real issue: the Strait of Hormuz. He argues this war is ultimately about who controls one of the world's most important energy chokepoints. For decades, American dominance in the Gulf has underpinned its global influence. But Landis says preserving that dominance through military force is becoming increasingly difficult. His argument is that even if Washington steps back, Iran cannot simply shut off global oil forever. Tehran also depends on exporting its own energy, meaning every Gulf state ultimately has an incentive to reach some form of accommodation. The real question isn't whether oil will keep flowing, but whether the United States remains the power that guarantees it. Landis warns that continuing to escalate may actually accelerate the decline Washington is trying to prevent. Joshua Landis

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump may have reached the point where every option makes America's position worse. Middle East expert Joshua Landis says Iran isn't just retaliating to U.S. pressure anymore. It's deliberately expanding the battlefield to convince Washington that escalation carries a higher cost than compromise. Start with the recent strikes. An American response inside Iran is followed by Iranian attacks on U.S. assets in Jordan and on ships in Egypt. If Washington turns to economic warfare or tries to blockade Iran, Tehran will simply drag the conflict back into military escalation. Landis agrees. He argues the White House still believes it can force Iran to back down by gradually degrading its economy, missile capabilities and military infrastructure. But every new round of pressure pushes Iran to widen the conflict instead, creating economic pain for America's regional partners and demonstrating that no country is insulated from the consequences. Egypt is the perfect example. Even if American ships are the intended target, attacks near Egypt threaten tourism, Suez Canal traffic and one of the region's most fragile economies. The point isn't necessarily Egypt itself. It's proving that pressure on Iran can quickly become pressure on everyone else. That brings Landis to the real issue: the Strait of Hormuz. He argues this war is ultimately about who controls one of the world's most important energy chokepoints. For decades, American dominance in the Gulf has underpinned its global influence. But Landis says preserving that dominance through military force is becoming increasingly difficult. His argument is that even if Washington steps back, Iran cannot simply shut off global oil forever. Tehran also depends on exporting its own energy, meaning every Gulf state ultimately has an incentive to reach some form of accommodation. The real question isn't whether oil will keep flowing, but whether the United States remains the power that guarantees it. Landis warns that continuing to escalate may actually accelerate the decline Washington is trying to prevent. Joshua Landis

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🇺🇸🇨🇳 The longest war isn't being fought with Chinese weapons, it's being fought with American exhaustion. Director of Middle East Studies Joshua Landis explains how Beijing and Moscow are quietly winning by letting Washington bleed. "China sees the Iran quagmire as the easiest way to weaken the United States... they're going to do what they can in order to prolong this confrontation and make sure that America is bled white." You don't have to fire a single shot if your enemy is doing the damage for you. Joshua Landis

🇺🇸🇨🇳 The longest war isn't being fought with Chinese weapons, it's being fought with American exhaustion. Director of Middle East Studies Joshua Landis explains how Beijing and Moscow are quietly winning by letting Washington bleed. "China sees the Iran quagmire as the easiest way to weaken the United States... they're going to do what they can in order to prolong this confrontation and make sure that America is bled white." You don't have to fire a single shot if your enemy is doing the damage for you. Joshua Landis

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Trump's disastrous Iran War is four weeks old and the Strait of Hormuz is still CLOSED. This was totally foreseeable and yet Trump had no plan - and still has no plan - to deal with this crisis. Oil companies will do fine with higher prices. But you're getting screwed.

Trump's disastrous Iran War is four weeks old and the Strait of Hormuz is still CLOSED. This was totally foreseeable and yet Trump had no plan - and still has no plan - to deal with this crisis. Oil companies will do fine with higher prices. But you're getting screwed.

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🚨🇺🇸 🇮🇷 THE ESCALATION LADDER: BEYOND RED LINES The regional war we are witnessing is far more than a "Venezuela-style" operation. Professor Robert Pape explains that Iran has leaped over critical steps on the escalation ladder. Daily strikes in the Gulf and tight control over the Strait of Hormuz prove the strategy is backfiring. Two weeks into the bombing, and Iran is actually stronger and more in control of oil than when it started. Robert A. Pape

🚨🇺🇸 🇮🇷 THE ESCALATION LADDER: BEYOND RED LINES The regional war we are witnessing is far more than a "Venezuela-style" operation. Professor Robert Pape explains that Iran has leaped over critical steps on the escalation ladder. Daily strikes in the Gulf and tight control over the Strait of Hormuz prove the strategy is backfiring. Two weeks into the bombing, and Iran is actually stronger and more in control of oil than when it started. Robert A. Pape

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🇺🇸🇮🇷 US Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent says Iran is making the last deliveries of oil to China next week and than is over: “In the next two weeks Iran will make the last oil deliveries to China and then their economy will collapse”

🇺🇸🇮🇷 US Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent says Iran is making the last deliveries of oil to China next week and than is over: “In the next two weeks Iran will make the last oil deliveries to China and then their economy will collapse”

Megatron

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