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The next frontier models won't come from OpenAI or Anthropic. They'll come from application companies that own the last mile in their domain. Here's Ali Ansari of micro1 on why the open source vs. closed source debate misses the point entirely. cc: Ryan Daniels, @jason, Lon Harris

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Jason Calacanis: Anthropic, OpenAI and others are trying to kill OpenClaw Why? Because an open source agent platform is an existential threat to frontier model companies. @jason: “ People are going to say I'm a conspiracy theorist, but the number one goal, I believe, in the large language model, frontier model space, is to kill (OpenClaw). This is a giant movement to stop it, because this is the equivalent of having an open source Android-like player in the market, and that could be incredibly disruptive. Because, I believe, open source is going to win the day on the large language models and take 90% of the token usage, and I think the entire frontier model space could be undercut by open source. And I think they realize that SLMs, the smaller language models that are verticalized now, that will run on desktops and laptops and are even starting to run on the top ones, that is their biggest competitive threat, and I hope it happens.”
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Jason Calacanis: Anthropic, OpenAI and others are trying to kill OpenClaw Why? Because an open source agent platform is an existential threat to frontier model companies. @jason: “ People are going to say I'm a conspiracy theorist, but the number one goal, I believe, in the large language model, frontier model space, is to kill (OpenClaw). This is a giant movement to stop it, because this is the equivalent of having an open source Android-like player in the market, and that could be incredibly disruptive. Because, I believe, open source is going to win the day on the large language models and take 90% of the token usage, and I think the entire frontier model space could be undercut by open source. And I think they realize that SLMs, the smaller language models that are verticalized now, that will run on desktops and laptops and are even starting to run on the top ones, that is their biggest competitive threat, and I hope it happens.”

The All-In Podcast

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Matt Bornstein says open source is how AI companies stop being wrappers: "A year ago, a bunch of smaller companies or new application companies were trying to figure out, 'How do I really build an AI without just being a wrapper on top of OpenAI?' The answer to that question turned out to be open source." "This is what Cursor did. This is what Decagon and Harvey are in the process of doing now. A bunch of really strong application-level startups made the determination: we can't build just on closed source." "We need to do our own mid-training, our own post-training, our own inference and deployment tricks. All of that means it must be built on top of open source. The closed-source vendors won't give you the access to do this." "Open source became really central in a way that's not always visible because it's deeply embedded in some of these products. Some of the most innovative products and applications now really depend on this very deeply." Matt Bornstein
1:15

Matt Bornstein says open source is how AI companies stop being wrappers: "A year ago, a bunch of smaller companies or new application companies were trying to figure out, 'How do I really build an AI without just being a wrapper on top of OpenAI?' The answer to that question turned out to be open source." "This is what Cursor did. This is what Decagon and Harvey are in the process of doing now. A bunch of really strong application-level startups made the determination: we can't build just on closed source." "We need to do our own mid-training, our own post-training, our own inference and deployment tricks. All of that means it must be built on top of open source. The closed-source vendors won't give you the access to do this." "Open source became really central in a way that's not always visible because it's deeply embedded in some of these products. Some of the most innovative products and applications now really depend on this very deeply." Matt Bornstein

a16z

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FROM THE LIVE SHOW: Matt Hicks (Matt Hicks), President & CEO of Red Hat, on open source and collaboration. "I love the model that open source provides because it provides this incredible collaboration." "This is why we're passionate about smaller models, because they allow that collaborative, open source ethos to thrive a little bit better than the frontier models."
0:40

FROM THE LIVE SHOW: Matt Hicks (Matt Hicks), President & CEO of Red Hat, on open source and collaboration. "I love the model that open source provides because it provides this incredible collaboration." "This is why we're passionate about smaller models, because they allow that collaborative, open source ethos to thrive a little bit better than the frontier models."

Forward Future

12,538 Aufrufe • vor 1 Jahr

Open source AI is gaining traction due to the White House’s clampdown on Anthropic & OpenAI. “A lot of founders and developers have been burned by trying to build apps on top of these really advanced closed source models, like Fable for instance…” “… and then seeing those models get taken down or removed from the market just days later.” — Stephanie Palazzolo, AI Reporter
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Open source AI is gaining traction due to the White House’s clampdown on Anthropic & OpenAI. “A lot of founders and developers have been burned by trying to build apps on top of these really advanced closed source models, like Fable for instance…” “… and then seeing those models get taken down or removed from the market just days later.” — Stephanie Palazzolo, AI Reporter

The Information

19,314 Aufrufe • vor 3 Monaten

Baseten's Charlie O'Neill on why the gap to the frontier is just compute and data: "Despite OpenAI and Anthropic and the closed source labs having more compute and more data, the recipe is the same. We're all scaling the same recipe here, and we're at slightly different points of the scaling curve. It's not like OpenAI or Anthropic have any secret sauce that differentiates them scaling up their multi-trillion parameter models from the rest of the open source ecosystem." "It really is just a matter of taking the core underlying architecture and training recipe, and throwing more compute and data at it, which is really promising." "Of course, these closed source labs probably have a long tail of optimizations they've made, which we're gonna continue to try and figure out in the open source community. But the core mechanism is there." "K3 is a great example of, well, if you do scale this recipe up, we're gonna get a pretty good model that's very, very close to the frontier, if not frontier itself." Charlie O'Neill Baseten
1:51

Baseten's Charlie O'Neill on why the gap to the frontier is just compute and data: "Despite OpenAI and Anthropic and the closed source labs having more compute and more data, the recipe is the same. We're all scaling the same recipe here, and we're at slightly different points of the scaling curve. It's not like OpenAI or Anthropic have any secret sauce that differentiates them scaling up their multi-trillion parameter models from the rest of the open source ecosystem." "It really is just a matter of taking the core underlying architecture and training recipe, and throwing more compute and data at it, which is really promising." "Of course, these closed source labs probably have a long tail of optimizations they've made, which we're gonna continue to try and figure out in the open source community. But the core mechanism is there." "K3 is a great example of, well, if you do scale this recipe up, we're gonna get a pretty good model that's very, very close to the frontier, if not frontier itself." Charlie O'Neill Baseten

MTS

17,404 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

.Josh Wolfe: Anybody Using DeepSeek App Is 'Absolute Fool' "Anybody using the DeepSeek app is an absolute fool. If you're using DeepSeek on companies like Together Compute, one of Lux's companies, which can get rid of the CCP censorship, then it's probably okay. But remember, the open-source movement is something we deeply believe in. Most great technologists, entrepreneurs, and venture capitalists are on the side of open source. The closed-source models that have consumed tens of billions of dollars are the ones that are really going to be at risk. When you look at Hugging Face, a major repository, or Together Compute, Runway ML, and a lot of Lux's companies, they have been pioneers in open source. Now, why am I not worried about open source, even with the DeepSeek model? As long as you don't have the CCP censorship on it, the models with their open weights allow people to run on their proprietary data. This means companies like pharma or defense companies that have their own siloed, proprietary data—think about Bloomberg with their proprietary longitudinal data, or Meta with their data—are the ones who will have the edge. Even as open source takes hold, these companies will still dominate. I’m not worried about open source being the problem. I’m more concerned about people overfunding closed models with no proprietary source. A lot of capital is going to be burned there, and we’re already seeing that with people worried about OpenAI in some aspects."
1:27

.Josh Wolfe: Anybody Using DeepSeek App Is 'Absolute Fool' "Anybody using the DeepSeek app is an absolute fool. If you're using DeepSeek on companies like Together Compute, one of Lux's companies, which can get rid of the CCP censorship, then it's probably okay. But remember, the open-source movement is something we deeply believe in. Most great technologists, entrepreneurs, and venture capitalists are on the side of open source. The closed-source models that have consumed tens of billions of dollars are the ones that are really going to be at risk. When you look at Hugging Face, a major repository, or Together Compute, Runway ML, and a lot of Lux's companies, they have been pioneers in open source. Now, why am I not worried about open source, even with the DeepSeek model? As long as you don't have the CCP censorship on it, the models with their open weights allow people to run on their proprietary data. This means companies like pharma or defense companies that have their own siloed, proprietary data—think about Bloomberg with their proprietary longitudinal data, or Meta with their data—are the ones who will have the edge. Even as open source takes hold, these companies will still dominate. I’m not worried about open source being the problem. I’m more concerned about people overfunding closed models with no proprietary source. A lot of capital is going to be burned there, and we’re already seeing that with people worried about OpenAI in some aspects."

Josh Caplan

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Jensen Huang was asked whether AI's future is open source or proprietary the question the whole industry keeps fighting over. He didn't pick a side. He said something that quietly ends the fight. "models is a technology, not a product. Model is a technology, not a service" "For the vast majority of consumers, the horizontal layer, the general intelligence, I would really, really love not to go fine-tune my own" "all these industries, their domain expertise, their specialization has to be channeled, has to be captured in a way that they can control, and that it can only come from open models" "the open model industry we're contributing tremendously to it is near the frontier" Everyone else is arguing about which lab wins OpenAI or Anthropic, who has the smartest frontier model this quarter. Jensen is standing on stage saying that's the sideshow. The proprietary model is the convenience layer you rent when you don't care. The open model is the thing you own when the work is yours. Two different products for two different needs not two horses in one race. open models are the second-biggest in the room. Ahead of Anthropic. Behind only OpenAI.
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Jensen Huang was asked whether AI's future is open source or proprietary the question the whole industry keeps fighting over. He didn't pick a side. He said something that quietly ends the fight. "models is a technology, not a product. Model is a technology, not a service" "For the vast majority of consumers, the horizontal layer, the general intelligence, I would really, really love not to go fine-tune my own" "all these industries, their domain expertise, their specialization has to be channeled, has to be captured in a way that they can control, and that it can only come from open models" "the open model industry we're contributing tremendously to it is near the frontier" Everyone else is arguing about which lab wins OpenAI or Anthropic, who has the smartest frontier model this quarter. Jensen is standing on stage saying that's the sideshow. The proprietary model is the convenience layer you rent when you don't care. The open model is the thing you own when the work is yours. Two different products for two different needs not two horses in one race. open models are the second-biggest in the room. Ahead of Anthropic. Behind only OpenAI.

Vikram M

12,078 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

Aligned with Matan Grinberg's intuition that in the next 12 months, 90% of tokens could be going to open models. We're seeing more and more companies using frontier APIs for experimenting and open-source or private models for production and larger workloads!
1:08

Aligned with Matan Grinberg's intuition that in the next 12 months, 90% of tokens could be going to open models. We're seeing more and more companies using frontier APIs for experimenting and open-source or private models for production and larger workloads!

clem 🤗

24,138 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

J-Cal: Nvidia is taking the gloves off with its open source model. They will own the whole stack. “You will not be able to tell the difference between Jensen Huang's open source LLM and Claude for 95% of your searches, I guarantee you. Now, why has Nvidia and Jensen downplayed their open source model until this moment? Why would he do that? Why would he never bring it up in the All-In interview, never bring it up? Because his top customers (OpenAI, Anthropic, etc.) were very concerned, from what I understand, about the fact that Nvidia had made so much progress on their open source model. But suddenly, after OpenAI announced their Jalapeno chips, after Anthropic started making chips, after AMD did successful projects with both of these companies, after Elon said he's going to do his own fab, Nvidia's taking the gloves off. They are going to own the whole stack. You get the hardware from them, and you're going to get a model that's competitive with OpenAI's for free.”
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J-Cal: Nvidia is taking the gloves off with its open source model. They will own the whole stack. “You will not be able to tell the difference between Jensen Huang's open source LLM and Claude for 95% of your searches, I guarantee you. Now, why has Nvidia and Jensen downplayed their open source model until this moment? Why would he do that? Why would he never bring it up in the All-In interview, never bring it up? Because his top customers (OpenAI, Anthropic, etc.) were very concerned, from what I understand, about the fact that Nvidia had made so much progress on their open source model. But suddenly, after OpenAI announced their Jalapeno chips, after Anthropic started making chips, after AMD did successful projects with both of these companies, after Elon said he's going to do his own fab, Nvidia's taking the gloves off. They are going to own the whole stack. You get the hardware from them, and you're going to get a model that's competitive with OpenAI's for free.”

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“We have a crisis of open source models in the Western world. Outside of China, there are no good open source models. We don't even have any in the US now. The talent, the capital and the focus to be best-in-class at pre-training, mid-training, post-training is an extremely scarce skillset. The answer for a lot of countries may just be to take an open weights model from China, post-train or fine-tune their own version, and have that be what they start from." Everett Randle Why does the West have such poor open source models and is it a national security threat to rely on open-source Chinese models Demis Hassabis Yann LeCun Aidan Gomez Lilian Weng Jan Leike
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“We have a crisis of open source models in the Western world. Outside of China, there are no good open source models. We don't even have any in the US now. The talent, the capital and the focus to be best-in-class at pre-training, mid-training, post-training is an extremely scarce skillset. The answer for a lot of countries may just be to take an open weights model from China, post-train or fine-tune their own version, and have that be what they start from." Everett Randle Why does the West have such poor open source models and is it a national security threat to rely on open-source Chinese models Demis Hassabis Yann LeCun Aidan Gomez Lilian Weng Jan Leike

Harry Stebbings

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NVIDIA AQCURIES HUGGING FACE FOR $12.9B. Jensen on the value of open source models: "I recommended that people use closed models as much as they can because they are developing rapidly. We use Claude, Codex, Perplexity, and Cursor at Nvidia. However, there are so many companies that have domain expertise, companies that have sovereignty reasons, they do their own research, those companies need to have control and ownership over their own intellectual proprietary. Open sourced models have become sufficiently good to allow companies to build their own AI."
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NVIDIA AQCURIES HUGGING FACE FOR $12.9B. Jensen on the value of open source models: "I recommended that people use closed models as much as they can because they are developing rapidly. We use Claude, Codex, Perplexity, and Cursor at Nvidia. However, there are so many companies that have domain expertise, companies that have sovereignty reasons, they do their own research, those companies need to have control and ownership over their own intellectual proprietary. Open sourced models have become sufficiently good to allow companies to build their own AI."

amit

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🚨 POD UP! Fifth Bestie Brad Gerstner is BACK! Brad Gerstner fills in for david friedberg: -- OpenAI vs Anthropic IPOs -- The Open Source Decision in July 2026 -- Meta's New Model, Zuck's Price War -- China to Crack Down on Open Source? -- Trump Accounts Launch (0:00) Bestie intros: Brad Gerstner fills in for Friedberg! (2:58) OpenAI vs Anthropic IPOs: Why it matters who goes first, what they learned from SpaceX, unlimited TAM of intelligence (27:39) The open source decision, Meta's new model, Zuck's price war, AI duopoly (54:29) CCP considering putting export controls on Chinese models, is open source ending in China? (1:03:09) Trump Accounts launch, getting young Americans bought back into capitalism

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Nvidia $NVDA catches and passes China's open models by the end of 2027. That's Jason Calacanis @jason on All-In, and the mechanism is pricing. Jensen sells a company a full rack of compute, soup to nuts, total sovereignty, at 80 to 90% below what that company pays for tokens from OpenAI and Anthropic. He doesn't need margin on the tokens because he already made it on the hardware. Calacanis's read: starting now Nvidia is the number one competitor to OpenAI and Anthropic, not only for tokens but for enterprise compute, and the leading open source provider in America. What the rack-versus-tokens shift does to AI margins: Source: All-In Podcast -
1:16

Nvidia $NVDA catches and passes China's open models by the end of 2027. That's Jason Calacanis @jason on All-In, and the mechanism is pricing. Jensen sells a company a full rack of compute, soup to nuts, total sovereignty, at 80 to 90% below what that company pays for tokens from OpenAI and Anthropic. He doesn't need margin on the tokens because he already made it on the hardware. Calacanis's read: starting now Nvidia is the number one competitor to OpenAI and Anthropic, not only for tokens but for enterprise compute, and the leading open source provider in America. What the rack-versus-tokens shift does to AI margins: Source: All-In Podcast -

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David Sacks: Anthropic Is Trying to Crush Open Source AI and the American Developers Who Use It David Sacks: “I know people don't have a lot of sympathy for Chinese companies, that's fine. I'm not defending Chinese companies. I'm defending American developers who need to be able to use everything in the public domain. And let me give you an example. Cursor rolled out its new product, Composer 2. They were able to post-train that model using Kimi K2.5 on their own proprietary coding data. They started with a Chinese open source model, and then they used their own data, and they came up with a new derivative product. This is the way that open source works. You take things that are in the public domain, you fork them, you make them your own. And by the way, once it's in the public domain, it's not a Chinese model anymore. No data is going back to China, nothing's going back to China. An American company has taken open source contributions in the public domain, made it their own, and then developed their own model. And if you say that American companies can't do that, or that somehow it's tainted with IP theft, you are basically going to put a dagger through the heart of the entire American open source ecosystem. And that is exactly what Anthropic wants, because they do not want to have the competition.”
0:59

David Sacks: Anthropic Is Trying to Crush Open Source AI and the American Developers Who Use It David Sacks: “I know people don't have a lot of sympathy for Chinese companies, that's fine. I'm not defending Chinese companies. I'm defending American developers who need to be able to use everything in the public domain. And let me give you an example. Cursor rolled out its new product, Composer 2. They were able to post-train that model using Kimi K2.5 on their own proprietary coding data. They started with a Chinese open source model, and then they used their own data, and they came up with a new derivative product. This is the way that open source works. You take things that are in the public domain, you fork them, you make them your own. And by the way, once it's in the public domain, it's not a Chinese model anymore. No data is going back to China, nothing's going back to China. An American company has taken open source contributions in the public domain, made it their own, and then developed their own model. And if you say that American companies can't do that, or that somehow it's tainted with IP theft, you are basically going to put a dagger through the heart of the entire American open source ecosystem. And that is exactly what Anthropic wants, because they do not want to have the competition.”

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278,276 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten

Yann LeCun just said something at Davos that nobody is talking about. The man who built Meta's AI for 12 years. The godfather of deep learning. Said this on stage, in front of the world's most powerful people: "The best open source AI models right now come from China. Everybody in the research community is using Chinese models." Here's what makes this more uncomfortable. He said it in the same breath as warning that the US is making a catastrophic mistake. OpenAI — increasingly closed. Anthropic — never open. Google — more closed every year. Meta — changing direction. Meanwhile China's labs are publishing. Open sourcing. Sharing. And the global research community is downloading their models. LeCun's warning was blunt: "We are slowing down progress in the West because of this." The irony is brutal. America built the open internet. Linux runs the world. The entire software stack humanity depends on is open source. And now the country that invented openness is closing its most important technology. While China does the opposite. The next AI revolution won't be won by the country with the most money. It will be won by the country whose models researchers actually use. Right now that answer is changing.
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Yann LeCun just said something at Davos that nobody is talking about. The man who built Meta's AI for 12 years. The godfather of deep learning. Said this on stage, in front of the world's most powerful people: "The best open source AI models right now come from China. Everybody in the research community is using Chinese models." Here's what makes this more uncomfortable. He said it in the same breath as warning that the US is making a catastrophic mistake. OpenAI — increasingly closed. Anthropic — never open. Google — more closed every year. Meta — changing direction. Meanwhile China's labs are publishing. Open sourcing. Sharing. And the global research community is downloading their models. LeCun's warning was blunt: "We are slowing down progress in the West because of this." The irony is brutal. America built the open internet. Linux runs the world. The entire software stack humanity depends on is open source. And now the country that invented openness is closing its most important technology. While China does the opposite. The next AI revolution won't be won by the country with the most money. It will be won by the country whose models researchers actually use. Right now that answer is changing.

Shruti

31,709 Aufrufe • vor 4 Monaten

Clem Delangue Clem Delangue 🤗: half the Fortune 500 build on Hugging Face. And they all eventually ditch the frontier API. Delangue runs the platform where open AI models get shared, so he watches enterprise AI spend move in real time. His pattern: companies start on OpenAI or Anthropic APIs to experiment, then shift production workloads to open or private models once cost bites at scale. Chamath Palihapitiya Chamath Palihapitiya has made the same case on All-In, framing this as the AI ownership war: own your intelligence or rent it from someone who can shut you off. If you are long the frontier labs on ever-growing API volume, the erosion is in the commodity inference tier, not the premium reasoning tier. Why Delangue thinks owned models win the production layer: Source: Equity by TechCrunch -
3:47

Clem Delangue Clem Delangue 🤗: half the Fortune 500 build on Hugging Face. And they all eventually ditch the frontier API. Delangue runs the platform where open AI models get shared, so he watches enterprise AI spend move in real time. His pattern: companies start on OpenAI or Anthropic APIs to experiment, then shift production workloads to open or private models once cost bites at scale. Chamath Palihapitiya Chamath Palihapitiya has made the same case on All-In, framing this as the AI ownership war: own your intelligence or rent it from someone who can shut you off. If you are long the frontier labs on ever-growing API volume, the erosion is in the commodity inference tier, not the premium reasoning tier. Why Delangue thinks owned models win the production layer: Source: Equity by TechCrunch -

Podcast Alpha

12,049 Aufrufe • vor 2 Monaten